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View Full Version : Stick a fork in Virginia Tech; they are done



JasonEvans
12-09-2008, 10:31 PM
In the category of ridiculously early speculation I present the following -- despite high hopes at the start of the season and a fair number of pre-season Top 25 votes, Va Tech will not be going to the NCAA tournament this season.

The Hokies dropped a game to Georgia tonight, 67-66. The game was at Georgia but still, this was a win that Va Tech needed against a team that is not even in the top half of the SEC. This is a Georgia team that lost to Loyola-Chicago... by 21. They lost to Illinois by 34. The Sagarin rankings have them at #132. Pomeroy has them at #178. Georgia is not good...

...and they just beat Va Tech.

The Hokies are now 5-4 with wins over Gardner-Webb, Mt. St. Mary's, Fairfield, Elon, and Navy. They have no one else of any real consequence left on their non-conference schedule. Richmond is the best non-ACC team they have left to play. When Navy and (hopefully) Richmond are your big calling cards in terms of non-conference wins then you do not have much of a case for an at-large bid.

Sure, they might make it if they go 10-6 in the ACC, but how likely is that? The embarrassing non-conference performance pretty much makes a bid with a 9-7 ACC record a huge longshot. Va Tech went 9-7 in the conference last yea and did not get a bid. Their profile will likely look even worse this season.

Va Tech does have the small advantage of only playing Wake and UNC once each (at Wake, at home against UNC), but they play us twice and have shown no sign of being consistent enough to avoid many, many stumbles along the way in the ACC wars. 10-6 in the conference? No way, I say.

--Jason "has the time come yet to start thinking about a replacement for Seth?" Evans

Bob Green
12-09-2008, 10:36 PM
I don't disagree with Jason's conclusion, but it is necessary to point out that VT has lost those four games by a total of eight points. That has to be frustrating for the Hokies.

nyr484
12-09-2008, 10:48 PM
And don't forget that their loss to Xavier was on a halfcourt miracle shot. I know the tourney selection committee has a short memory and that probably won't come into play, but damn that has to hurt.

ugadevil
12-09-2008, 10:54 PM
While Va. Tech has had some close losses, it's not like they can combine that with any solid wins. I don't think they've had a really dominant performance all season. I know they struggled mightily with Gardner-Webb and Mt. St. Mary's and both of those games were at home.

They didn't exactly walk in to a frenzied atmosphere at Georgia either. I already saw some pictures and it looked like a scrimmage with all the empty seats.

hurleyfor3
12-09-2008, 11:13 PM
I don't disagree with Jason's conclusion, but it is necessary to point out that VT has lost those four games by a total of eight points. That has to be frustrating for the Hokies.

But isn't that precisely the nature of VPI, as the unsigned DBR editorial pointed out a few days back? Greenberg's teams play to the level of their opponents. I don't think it's really playing "up" or playing "down" as it's hard to pin down their natural level of talent.

gotham devil
12-10-2008, 12:49 AM
--Jason "has the time come yet to start thinking about a replacement for Seth?" Evans
In a conference with three head coaches that have won national titles and forced to recruit players to the middle of nowhere, he has won two ACC Coach of the Year awards, including last season's award, in five seasons. So, no, I don't think their AD has any rational thoughts of replacing Seth Greenberg.

Capn Poptart
12-10-2008, 07:35 AM
Hokie Nation is happy to have a coach who can consistently compete. They've been through so much bad basketball, most of it in the Big East, that having a team that plays tough in the ACC is a godsend. Plus, they've done better than the Wahoos of late, and that counts for a lot in the Commonwealth.

Tech still has a little inferiority complex re. the ACC, and Seth plays that chip on the shoulder scrappy stuff up well. Plus, he was (and although I don't know his current contract, I'll bet he still is) a bargain for them financially.

gw67
12-10-2008, 08:20 AM
I agree with Jason. Unless Tech can turn it around in the ACC, finish 10-6 and defeat a couple of the top teams, their chances of making it to the NCAAT are very small. As of now, they are 78th in the RPI and their remaining OOC schedule is not designed to raise this rating very much.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_acc_Men.html

DBR made a good point in this morning’s ACC Roundup. Sure they have lost the only 4 games they have played against decent opposition by just a few points but they haven’t taken inferior teams to the woodshed either. As someone mentioned earlier, it appears that they play to the level of the opposition.

gw67

davekay1971
12-10-2008, 09:00 AM
--Jason "has the time come yet to start thinking about a replacement for Seth?" Evans

No way, I say. I don't much care for the guy, or the team, but Va Tech has been competitive ever since they came into the conference. They have some talent this year, and, if they can get it to come together, they could be tough in conference play. I agree with Jason's point that they will almost certainly not make the NCAAs...but they could still have a successful season in conference.

riverside6
12-10-2008, 09:44 AM
A good start to the Hokies success would be just teaching Jeff Allen how not to foul. Their last two losses have come with him sitting on the bench for the majority of the game.

just_wondering
12-10-2008, 10:29 AM
My impression from the Navy game was that Virginia Tech looked pretty uninterested most of the time. They were far more talented and much bigger than Navy but were satisfied as soon as they took the lead.



A good start to the Hokies success would be just teaching Jeff Allen how not to foul. Their last two losses have come with him sitting on the bench for the majority of the game.

Carlos
12-10-2008, 10:33 AM
Other famous ridiculously early speculations from Jason Evans:

"Shav's jersey will be hanging from the rafters in Cameron when he's all done."

SMO
12-10-2008, 10:44 AM
Other famous ridiculously early speculations from Jason Evans:

"Shav's jersey will be hanging from the rafters in Cameron when he's all done."

Oh snap!

It does make me smile a little to see Greenberg suffer. Maybe he can take some verbal jabs at Paulus to make himself feel better.

JasonEvans
12-10-2008, 10:45 AM
A good start to the Hokies success would be just teaching Jeff Allen how not to foul. Their last two losses have come with him sitting on the bench for the majority of the game.

I've heard that Allen really, really, really wants to turn pro as soon as possible. The kid is a very nice player but as a 6-7 or maybe 6-8 PF his draft stock may be somewhat lacking. I think one reason you are seeing him take (and hit) a lot more 3-pters this season is a desire to show he can play SF in the NBA.

-Jason "I was not suggesting Seth should go, but just wondering if there was an disenchantment there" Evans

JasonEvans
12-10-2008, 10:47 AM
Other famous ridiculously early speculations from Jason Evans:

"Shav's jersey will be hanging from the rafters in Cameron when he's all done."

Ummm... wellllll...

So, 'Los, are you saying that you do expect Va Tech to make the dance?

--Jason "my Shav prediction will live in infamy" Evans

davekay1971
12-10-2008, 11:10 AM
It's okay...having the cojones to throw the predictions out there early means a few of them are going to end up looking silly in 20/20 hindsight. My personal best prediction, made to a Tarhole fan at the start of the 92-93 season: "Any team starting a guy named Heinrich Rodl is not going to win the national championship". Thanks, C-Webb, for helping to look like a complete idiot.

As for the modified question, whether there may be some disenchantment in Blacksburg, I guarantee there is. Those are not the most forgiving and generous fans, and an early season stumble after another season in which the Hokies missed the Big Dance will have the grumblers grumbling and the whiners whining.

ugadevil
12-10-2008, 12:06 PM
For now, Virginia Tech fans are more concerned about how to get rid of the offensive coordinator of the football team.

RepoMan
12-10-2008, 01:26 PM
Stiney must go

pbc2
12-10-2008, 01:32 PM
I've seen two of VA Tech's close losses this year - Xavier and Wisconsin. I was also at the Dockery game in Cameron. Seth seriously needs to teach his team to play defense at the end of a close game. In the Xavier game, at least one or two VA Tech players were not even on the court - I think it was Jeff Allen, who was celebrating underneath his own basket, which allowed Xavier to inbound the ball cleanly and get past half court for the buzzer-beater. In the Wisconsin game, after Vasallo's 3 tied it (and capped an impressive 2nd-half comeback in a tough road environment), VA Tech allowed Wisconsin to dribble the ball up the floor and score in the final 7 seconds.

This many close losses has to be tough to overlook, especially if it continues into ACC play...

riverside6
12-10-2008, 01:51 PM
It was Allen under the goal as well as another Hokie on the baseline who celebrated.

For Allen to not be part of play when he's actually on the court is a completely different type of problem.

juise
12-10-2008, 03:11 PM
It was Allen under the goal as well as another Hokie on the baseline who celebrated.

For Allen to not be part of play when he's actually on the court is a completely different type of problem.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB9dTHUctVg

It looks like Allen celebrated and then got knocked on his back because he was oblivious to the fact that there was still a basketball game happening. Meanwhile, one of his teammates started to celebrate and then realized he should be... I don't know... playing defense or finding his man.

Dr. Rosenrosen
12-10-2008, 04:07 PM
You gotta wonder what Seth Greenberg did in his life to piss off the basketball gods to such a degree.

Johnboy
12-10-2008, 04:45 PM
You gotta wonder what Seth Greenberg did in his life to piss off the basketball gods to such a degree.

Exhibit A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DrgNEZ8VR8)(?)

mgtr
12-10-2008, 07:09 PM
Whatever happened to Deron Washington, anyway? If he is playing basketball, I hope it is a great environment such as Somalia.

ugadevil
12-10-2008, 07:12 PM
Whatever happened to Deron Washington, anyway? If he is playing basketball, I hope it is a great environment such as Somalia.

He was actually drafted by the Pistons. His wikipedia page says he's currently playing in Israel.

gumbomoop
12-10-2008, 08:37 PM
VT may be self-destructing re NCAAs, but if, as several posters have suggested, they play to the level of their competition, that means they'll give Duke trouble at least once, maybe both games. Yes?

And it is a remarkable effect of ubiquitous Duke-hating/envying that every team seems to want to beat Duke more than anything in the world.

Diddy
12-10-2008, 10:17 PM
I agree with Jason Evans. VT is not going to fire Seth this year. But this is the year when the disenfranchisement will start, in earnest. Seth's seat isn't hot, but it will start to get warm.

Playing to the level of your competition is one of the worst things that a team can do. It speaks to weak coaching. You have to be able to get up for big teams, but also throttle lesser teams without having to get psyched.

To me, the most darning habit of Seth's teams is underachieving. Last year, they had the talent to go to the NCAAs. He did not get the most out of his talent. Deron Washington had all the tools to be a superstar in the ACC, and a quality NBA player. His personality got in the way, but Seth is at least partially responsible for that. The failure of such an athletic, talented player will hinder him on the recruiting trail.

Which leads me to the next nail in the coffin for Seth. Recruiting. The ACC is an arms race. Players are the weapons. Look to UNC for proof. Roy is a good coach, but not great. He has recruited such a talented crew that even his chokejob may not be enough to sabotage them in April. Seth isn't getting the players necessary to compete. I would argue that his talent level is regressing, steadily. That will be more apparant this year, and on a going forward basis.

Finally, there is Virginia (the state) and Virginia (the University). I agree with an above poster that VT is more concerned with the OC in FB. I also agree that a competitive BB team, especially one that is beating UVA, is probably enough for most VT fans. That is about to change. The coach at UVA is probably done this year, unless he can lure a stud recruit to campus next year. Sylvan Landesburd looks like a player, and a couple of Sr's are OK(ish), but that team has fallen off in recent years. He had a close relationship with E-Will, but couldn't close the deal. Ed Davis (of UNC) grew up in Charlottsville's shadow, but UVA couldn't lure him there. That last loss is looming more and more with each double-double Davis records.

UVA will probably have a new coach next year, or the year after, depending on finances. That new coach will probably bring new emotion, and notariety, to UVA. If he improves UVA, it could really highlight how Seth's team has regressed in recent years.

That seat has got to be heating up.

pfrduke
12-10-2008, 10:35 PM
Deron Washington had all the tools to be a superstar in the ACC, and a quality NBA player. His personality got in the way, but Seth is at least partially responsible for that. The failure of such an athletic, talented player will hinder him on the recruiting trail.

Deron Washington had one tool - athleticism. He was a freakish athlete. It masked the fact that he was not a good basketball player. His personality had nothing to do with the fact that he had no jump shot and no handle.

hurleyfor3
12-11-2008, 11:02 AM
VT may be self-destructing re NCAAs, but if, as several posters have suggested, they play to the level of their competition, that means they'll give Duke trouble at least once, maybe both games. Yes?


VPI usually gives us trouble at least once a year. Remember they beat us in the first game we played there and the next year that one dude kicked Lee Melchionni. (Come to think of it, "kicking Lee Melchionni" seems like VPI basketball in a nutshell.)

I'm going to take a contrarian view regarding Seth here. VPI is a football school -- how good a basketball program do folks there really care to have, especially in the acc where the barriers to entry to being good are so high? Isn't it easy enough to have someone who gives the good teams a scare from time to time and is a thorn in their side?

Or put another way, isn't VPI basketball pretty much what most of us want Duke football to be, minus all the kicking?

throatybeard
12-11-2008, 07:47 PM
I agree with Jason Evans. VT is not going to fire Seth this year. But this is the year when the disenfranchisement will start, in earnest.

That guy's never gonna vote again. Never!

ACCBBallFan
12-12-2008, 12:28 PM
Seems like either Vassallo or Allen but rarely both have a good game togetrher.

Based on their lack luster performaance so far, I would rate them 10th in ACC but experct they will finish 6-7 and not make the tourney due to poor OOC.

1 UNC
6 Duke split w Mich
11 Wake Forest
24 Clemson
27 Miami-Fl lost to tOSU, beat UK
37 Maryland beat Mich St
43 FSU beat Calif, lost to NW
49 BC beat UAB,lost to SLU
61 GA Tech lost to Penn St beat Vandy
68 Va Tech lost to GA, Wisc, Seton Hall Xav
103 NC St
140 UVA lost to Liberty, MN & Syr

It's not like their SOS is good enough to offset their W-L.

Against what I consider to be the top 32 teams, the number of times each ACC faces them are:

11 - MD which could help their bubble cause
10 - Duke, NC St but NC State not likely to be on the bubble
09 - FSU, UVA but neither is likely to be on the bubble
08 - UNC, Wake, BC, VA Tech average SOS
07 - Miami, GA Tech which does not help Miami's bubble cause
05 - Clemson which could hurt them too if they do not finish 10-6 or better

The only reason I cut it off at 32 is that with the font I was using, that's what fit on one page and was easiest to count:

1 UNC ACC
2 UCONN BE
3 Pittsburgh BE
4 Gonzaga WCC
5 Oklahoma B12
6 Duke split w Mich ACC
7 Texas lost to Notre Dame & beat UCLA& Nova B12
8 Tennessee lost to Gonzaga SEC
9 Xavier A10
10 Louisville lost to W Ky BE
11 Wake Forest ACC
12 Syracuse BE
13 Villanova lost to TX BE
14 Memphis CUSA
15 UCLA lost to Mich & TX P10
16 Georgetown BE
17 Purdue lost to OKL, Duke B10
18 Ohio St. beat Notre Dame & Miami-FL B10
19 Notre Dame beat TX, lost to Ohio St & UNC BE
20 Michigan St lost to MD B10
21 Baylor beat AZ St & Wash St lost to WF, B12
22 Arizona St lost to Baylor P10
23 Davidson Southern
24 Clemson ACC
25 Kansas U lost to Syr B12
26 Dayton lost to Creighton beat Marq & Akron A10
27 Miami-Fl lost to tOSU, beat UK ACC
28 Marquette beat Wisc lost to Dayton BE
29 West Virginia lost to UK,& Davidson beat MS BE
30 BYU beat Utah St MWC
31 Missouri B12
32 Butler beat Bradley HOR