PDA

View Full Version : MBB Duke v. Michigan (Part 2) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



-jk
12-05-2008, 10:54 AM
We handled them pretty easily before, but (as the cliche goes) tomorrow's another day. Their two losses are to us and to an up-and-down Maryland team.

Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm) has them at #47 and Pomeroy (http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php) has them at #56, but it's still too early for the systems to predict. I haven't seen a line yet.

Harris and Sims are averaging 21 and 15 points respectively and 8 rebounds each. Everyone else has fewer than 6 points and 4 rebounds a game, and it's spread out.

Their 3 point shooting is not what Beilein would prefer, but they have some guys that can take 'em.

They play deep, with nine players averaging double digit minutes - same as us.

(This is where the smarter people jump in and carry the discussion.)

-jk

davekay1971
12-05-2008, 11:02 AM
Still waiting on a smarter person to show up...

On the surface, you would think that we would have an advantage in that Michigan plays an unusual system on both offense and defense, and we've seen it before (very recently). Obviously we've got an advantage in talent level. Combining that with the fact that we should be very well prepared for them, and we should win this game.

My only concern is that we may come out flat. We beat them soundly pretty recently, which can always get into your head and sap some intensity. In addition, this part of the season is all about preparation for later. I'm not sure Duke gets much out of this game, and that may translate into us coming in with less energy than I'm sure Michigan is going to bring. The first 10 minutes, I think, will tell a lot about whether this is going to be a close game, or whether we put them down decisively.

mgtr
12-05-2008, 12:43 PM
The smarter people are all busy doing whatever smarter people do. I agree with DaveKay's concern that we might come out flat. Duke did that a lot last year, as I recall, and we did it, I think, vs URI. That was a wake-up call, and hopefully that alarm is still ringing tomorrow afternoon.
If we play as we did against Purdue we should be fine. OK, we should be better than fine if we play that well.

Wander
12-05-2008, 01:24 PM
I would really like to see Scheyer do a better job on Manny Harris this time around.

Classof06
12-05-2008, 03:03 PM
This is clearly a game Duke should win. Like Purdue, take Michigan, and any confidence they might have, out of the game early.

Basically, don't let Michigan's familiarity with us even come into play. They've already played us, they're at home and they have nothing to lose. Don't play with fire.

Bob Green
12-06-2008, 04:14 AM
I expect Michigan to give us a tough game at their home arena. We handled their 1-3-1 pretty easily in New York so look for the Wolverines to throw in some wrinkles. We will win but I'm expecting a five to eight point victory not a 15 point decision.

Indoor66
12-06-2008, 09:43 AM
I expect Michigan to give us a tough game at their home arena. We handled their 1-3-1 pretty easily in New York so look for the Wolverines to throw in some wrinkles. We will win but I'm expecting a five to eight point victory not a 15 point decision.

I don't often disagree with you, Bob, but this time I think you are wrong. I think the talent differential is overwhelming. With the preparation time, I think this win is by more than the first.

I guess that is why these are called opinions. :)

cbfx3
12-06-2008, 11:01 AM
Not saying we should lose but I fully expect a much tougher game this time around

ncexnyc
12-06-2008, 11:25 AM
That when we have these talks about a former opponent from a previous game or season, some people seem to think that we are the only ones who learned from that experience.

I'm sure all players try to improve upon past performances and I'm quite sure the coaching staffs of the opposition try to make any necessary adjustments.

As has already been stated, the first 10 minutes or so of this game will be crucial. If we can take the crowd out of the equation and show the Wolverines that NYC wasn't a bad game for them, then we should win going away, however if they keep it close, we could be in for a long afternoon.

jv001
12-06-2008, 11:31 AM
If we come out to start the game like we did against Purdue, we should be ok. If we don't the crowd will be in it and should help a young Mich squad. Our offense worked well last time because of our skip passes. Their coaching staff probably has worked on that with a few new wrinkles thrown in. However if we really come to play it should make no difference in the outcome, but the score will be closer than last time. Go Duke!

pfrduke
12-06-2008, 11:37 AM
That when we have these talks about a former opponent from a previous game or season, some people seem to think that we are the only ones who learned from that experience.

I'm sure all players try to improve upon past performances and I'm quite sure the coaching staffs of the opposition try to make any necessary adjustments.

As has already been stated, the first 10 minutes or so of this game will be crucial. If we can take the crowd out of the equation and show the Wolverines that NYC wasn't a bad game for them, then we should win going away, however if they keep it close, we could be in for a long afternoon.

I'm not sure when the last time was that you were in Crisler Arena, but it's not noted as an intimidating home court environment for other teams to visit. Yes, the crowd should be up for this game because it's Duke, but it will be nothing like Mackey on Tuesday or really any ACC arena.

I haven't seen anything this year to show that Michigan can score enough points to win. They'll have to hold us in the 60s. We need to force the pace and keep that from happening.

RainingThrees
12-06-2008, 11:50 AM
I'll look forward to seeing Singler play against the zone again, with those slips to to basket after he sets a pick.

BlueintheFace
12-06-2008, 01:19 PM
I'll look forward to seeing Singler play against the zone again, with those slips to to basket after he sets a pick.

Those work better in man-to-man because in zone the help defense is already there... but he should make a killing on the boards and on the baseline soft-spot.

I just want to see more solid Duke "Animals. They're f----- animals" Defense

Bob Green
12-06-2008, 01:30 PM
Those work better in man-to-man because in zone the help defense is already there... but he should make a killing on the boards and on the baseline soft-spot

I agree with you in regard to the baseline soft-spot. Attacking the baseline is the key to defeating a 1-3-1 zone. Zoubek is a good passer so it will be interesting to watch him in the high post delivering the ball to the baseline. Henderson should be able to get free for a couple of alley-oops as well.

devildeac
12-06-2008, 02:04 PM
Anybody planning on joining the usually raucous bunch in snrub today;)?

riverside6
12-06-2008, 02:36 PM
for those interested in our live tempo-based stats, here is the link to Live Stats for Duke/Michigan (http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=1896) Part 2

gotham devil
12-06-2008, 02:47 PM
We handled them pretty easily before, but (as the cliche goes) tomorrow's another day. Their two losses are to us and to an up-and-down Maryland team.

Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm) has them at #47 and Pomeroy (http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php) has them at #56, but it's still too early for the systems to predict. I haven't seen a line yet.

Harris and Sims are averaging 21 and 15 points respectively and 8 rebounds each. Everyone else has fewer than 6 points and 4 rebounds a game, and it's spread out.

Their 3 point shooting is not what Beilein would prefer, but they have some guys that can take 'em.

They play deep, with nine players averaging double digit minutes - same as us.

(This is where the smarter people jump in and carry the discussion.)

-jk

Duke is staying as a 10 point road favorite against Michigan.
The O/U has moved down from 141 to 138.

CameronCrazy'11
12-06-2008, 04:02 PM
I'd like to buy a three, please.

buddy
12-06-2008, 04:10 PM
1-14 from three point range. Does Singler realize he is part of a team and has teammates?

devildeac
12-06-2008, 04:13 PM
Marty hits one.

Cdog923
12-06-2008, 04:14 PM
That simple.

dukebluelemur
12-06-2008, 04:15 PM
cosign.

Coballs
12-06-2008, 04:17 PM
2-18 on 3's. Ugh!!!

nyr484
12-06-2008, 04:18 PM
I don't mind them taking the open 3's, but they need to stop forcing up bad shots. Hopefully the 2nd half will be different with Henderson back on the floor.

Duvall
12-06-2008, 04:19 PM
Why? Shooters should take open shots.

Duke79UNLV77
12-06-2008, 04:19 PM
at 3-point shooting. yes, we're not as bad as the 1st half, but look at the career percentages for everyone but paulus -- scheyer, singler, henderson, williams, pocius, mcclure. none of them are very good. i thought part of the problem at the end of last year, besides singler's wearing down, with his falling in love with floating on the perimeter and jacking up 3's several feet behind the line. our big 3 of singler, scheyer, and henderson are all more dangerous inside the arch. others can shoot open 3's with their feet set in the flow of the offense, but only paulus should be a true 3-point gunner on this team.

yancem
12-06-2008, 04:21 PM
2-18 on 3's. Ugh!!!

Why in the world are we settling for 3 pointers? At one point we were 11-14 inside the arc and 1-15 outside it. We are so much more effective near the basket than we were last year. We need to take advantage of that. If we continue to launch 3 pointers early in the shot clock and don't force Michigan to play defense, it is going to be a long second half.

yancem
12-06-2008, 04:26 PM
I don't often disagree with you, Bob, but this time I think you are wrong. I think the talent differential is overwhelming. With the preparation time, I think this win is by more than the first.

I guess that is why these are called opinions. :)

Still of the same thought?

devildeac
12-06-2008, 04:30 PM
2-18 on 3's. Ugh!!!

we must think we're playing lsu

Jumbo
12-06-2008, 04:31 PM
Why in the world are we settling for 3 pointers? At one point we were 11-14 inside the arc and 1-15 outside it. We are so much more effective near the basket than we were last year. We need to take advantage of that. If we continue to launch 3 pointers early in the shot clock and don't force Michigan to play defense, it is going to be a long second half.

The corner three is an easy shot. It's wide open. The reason we're getting so many open ones is because Michigan is denying us other shots. If we keep getting such open looks, we have to take them, and we have to knock them down.

dukebluelemur
12-06-2008, 04:31 PM
Why in the world are we settling for 3 pointers? At one point we were 11-14 inside the arc and 1-15 outside it. We are so much more effective near the basket than we were last year. We need to take advantage of that. If we continue to launch 3 pointers early in the shot clock and don't force Michigan to play defense, it is going to be a long second half.

If we had just handed them the ball every time we shot a three, we would only be down 8, and shooting, by my count, 12 for 15.

Good Grief.

(Yes yes, offensive rebounding, blah blah...)

concrete
12-06-2008, 04:59 PM
why the hell is Paulus even in the game...his man his burning us and he's not hitting anything!

Coballs
12-06-2008, 05:06 PM
This is pathetic. Will Gerald Henderson please show up?

Diddy
12-06-2008, 05:08 PM
Down low. We are better than last year, but we are making a mediocre Sims look like an All-America.

Most upsetting, we are playig their game. Unacceptable.

Oh, and the above poster is right. When Paulus isn't hitting, he brings very little to the table.

Great D by our guys.

loran16
12-06-2008, 05:15 PM
These refs are so terrible and so biased. NOTHING they do is a foul.

I mean cmon, until 3 minutes ago there were 7 FTs shot in this game, 6 of them by UM.

I miss acc refs.

chrisheery
12-06-2008, 05:16 PM
simply, we are missing shots we should hit. if we make those shots, everything else opens up. if we don't even shoot them, they can pack it in like they have been doing all game. you can say "go inside" all you want, but there is nowhere to go. we just have to make shots. lucky for us, this isn't the tournament and there is a lot more basketball to play this year.

the only thing i think we could do differently to counter their defensive strategy is have hendo post. he should be able to operate easily against anyone guarding him. actually, i think he should do that every game.

loran16
12-06-2008, 05:20 PM
I'd like to bring up two points.

First, theyve been running a single play the entire 2nd half. The guy Lance/Zou(mainly Lance) goes toward the 3 point line and left or right (doesn't matter).

Our guy acts like a moron and follows him, and one of their players drives into the empty void and hits an easy 2.

Second, Gerald just killed us there with an off balence 2 with plenty of time on the clock. Seriously, think for a second before shooting.

Third, put Zoo in and go to a pressing zone. If we have any shot we need to do that.

Troublemaker
12-06-2008, 05:24 PM
Big picture wise, it's good to see Beilein turning around the Michigan program. Our home and home with them should continue to produce good games in the future and prepare us for ACC and postseason play. It's better to get tested and lose than to not get tested at all.

grossbus
12-06-2008, 05:26 PM
clank