Charting Duke vs. Purdue

[Jumbo]

Duke came into this game prepared for its toughest test of the season, and we saw a lot of what that would mean in some of the plus/minus stats. Coach K went to more repetition of lineups than in previous games, basically going with the eight veterans. Unfortunately, that didn't include the starting lineup much -- those guys only played together twice (to start each half). That was a shame, because they outscored Purdue, 12-3. We also saw that because Scheyer and Singler each played 36 minutes, their numbers basically mirrored the team as a whole.

And we saw a couple of negative signs. Lance Thomas posted a -5, although I'm not sure how to explain that. I didn't feel like he played poorly, and that could be an example of the way plus/minus in individual games can be misleading. What is not misleading, though, is the continuing disparity between Nolan Smith and Greg Paulus. Smith was +20; Paulus was +3. And includes a +7 with them on the floor together (mostly at the end of the game, when Paulus was playing offense/defense with McClure). So, when Paulus was running the point without Smith in the game, Duke got outscored by four points. Simply put, throughout the season, Duke has been consistently better with Smith on the floor and Paulus on the bench.

The end-game scenario also shows another weakness in taking too much out of an individual game's plus/minus stats. When two guys are playing offense/defense, one is reaping the benefits of the other team's fouling, while the defender isn't getting a chance to score. So, the ratings for Paulus and McClure are skewed a bit. Anyway, on to the numbers ...


Individuals
Nolan Smith 44-24 (+20)
Brian Zoubek 24-7 (+17)
Kyle Singler 69-54 (+15)
Jon Scheyer 67-54 (+13)
Gerald Henderson 59-47 (+12)
David McClure 34-27 (+7)
Greg Paulus 41-38 (+3)
Elliot Williams 3-4 (-1)
Miles Plumlee 1-2 (-1)
Lance Thomas 38-43 (-5)

Per 40 Minutes
Brian Zoubek +61.8
Nolan Smith +40
Gerald Henderson +17.1
Kyle Singler +16.7
Jon Scheyer +14.4
David McClure +14
Greg Paulus +5.5
Lance Thomas -9.1
Elliot Williams -13.3
Miles Plumlee -20

Lineups
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 12-3 (+9)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler (x3) 7-0 (+7)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x5) 13-7 (+6)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Zoubek 4-0 (+4)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Thomas 3-0 (+3)
Paulus-Henderson-McClure-Thomas-Zoubek 6-4 (+2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 2-0 (+2)
Smith-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Thomas 2-0 (+2)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Thomas-Plumlee (x2) 1-0 (+1)
Paulus-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Thomas 3-2 (+1)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Singler-Thomas (x2) 2-2 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Thomas-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Henderson-McClure-Thomas-Plumlee 0-0 (0)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-McClure-Singler 0-2 (-2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Plumlee 0-2 (-2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler 0-3 (-3)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Thomas (x2) 5-9 (-4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x4) 11-16 (-5)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x4) 5-10 (-5)

[sagegrouse]

On plus/minus data, Zoubs is very effective, which accords with my view of the game last night.

I don't know that K would ever play him 25 minutes a game, but if he get four fouls in 11 minutes, it hardly matters about the coach's intent.

Duke seemed to get the short end of the stick last night on foul calls. Anyone have an opinion on whether Zoubek's were deserved?

sagegrouse

[JDev]

On plus/minus data, Zoubs is very effective, which accords with my view of the game last night.

I don't know that K would ever play him 25 minutes a game, but if he get four fouls in 11 minutes, it hardly matters about the coach's intent.

Duke seemed to get the short end of the stick last night on foul calls. Anyone have an opinion on whether Zoubek's were deserved?

sagegrouse

It seems to me that Zoubek gets a few foul calls every game that seem to be poor calls. I do not know if that is just my view as a Duke fan, but that is how it seems to me. That is very difficult to overcome. Last night his first foul came when he batted away an entry pass, and it did not seem to be anything close to a foul to me.

[Jumbo]

On plus/minus data, Zoubs is very effective, which accords with my view of the game last night.

I don't know that K would ever play him 25 minutes a game, but if he get four fouls in 11 minutes, it hardly matters about the coach's intent.

Duke seemed to get the short end of the stick last night on foul calls. Anyone have an opinion on whether Zoubek's were deserved?

sagegrouse

This is getting a little off-topic, but there's been a lot of whining about the officiating in the post-game thread. I was yelling at the TV a lot in real time, especially in the first half. Then I went back on the DVR and watched some of the plays over again (particularly Singler's drives) and, sure enough, there was no foul. I think the officiating wasn't nearly as bad as some people though. Live action can trick the eye.

And, yes, I think Zoubek's fouls were deserved.

[davekay1971]

This is getting a little off-topic, but there's been a lot of whining about the officiating in the post-game thread. I was yelling at the TV a lot in real time, especially in the first half. Then I went back on the DVR and watched some of the plays over again (particularly Singler's drives) and, sure enough, there was no foul. I think the officiating wasn't nearly as bad as some people though. Live action can trick the eye.

And, yes, I think Zoubek's fouls were deserved.

Although I've never seen a blown charge/block call like the block called on Henderson. He could have sung the Star Spangled Banner complete with the big "O" in the time his feet were planted nicely on the floor.

[CDu]

Although I've never seen a blown charge/block call like the block called on Henderson. He could have sung the Star Spangled Banner complete with the big "O" in the time his feet were planted nicely on the floor.

I think the officiating was in no way wildly against Duke in this game, ESPECIALLY when you consider it was a road game (which theoretically would favor the home team a bit more). But that call did seem pretty bad. Frequently, plays like that seem like charges but the player is sliding over. In that case, it didn't appear that Henderson moved.

Overall though, I'd say the officiating was pretty solid, if not slightly favoring Duke (or at least our style of play).

[robed deity]

I would also agree that the officiating wasn't all that bad or in favor of one team.

I was actually surprised we didn't get called for a push-off or two while bringing the ball up the floor. I thought for sure Nolan would get whistled at least once for pushing off with his off arm-it being a true road game an all.

[tbyers11]

Although I've never seen a blown charge/block call like the block called on Henderson. He could have sung the Star Spangled Banner complete with the big "O" in the time his feet were planted nicely on the floor.

I didn't think the officiating was all that bad either. The Henderson block mentioned above and Plumlee's "charge" under the basket in the second half when the Purdue player just threw his body in front of him were, IMO, the only really questionable calls.

I thought Duke was getting called for some cheap hand-checking type fouls in the first half that Purdue was getting away with, but those calls seemed to favor Duke in the second half so all-in-all not too bad of a game for the zebras.

[loran16]

Jumbo, you simply outlined the problem with +/- stats. For example, We started playing stallball with roughly 6 minutes left.

Obviously that's going to hurt a player's +/-.

Lance's #s are confusing also, but i think it's because of that also. IIRC, he was on the floor in the end of the game, whereas zoubek was not.

[RainingThrees]

Lance had a good game imo, helped keep up the strong defense on Hummel along with Singler.

[Jumbo]

Lance's #s are confusing also, but i think it's because of that also. IIRC, he was on the floor in the end of the game, whereas zoubek was not.


I thought that might be the case, too. But he played a lot in the first half, and only had an even plus/minus, while Duke was +8 at the break.

[Bob Green]

Anyone have an opinion on whether Zoubek's were deserved?

Zoubek's fouls were deserved, and I am a huge Zoubek fan. I expect his contributions to increase steadily over the course of the season. However, foul trouble during ACC games is a legitimate concern.

[pfrduke]

Although I've never seen a blown charge/block call like the block called on Henderson. He could have sung the Star Spangled Banner complete with the big "O" in the time his feet were planted nicely on the floor.

One thing I will say in the official's defense on this play is that Gerald was very deep. If it was the NBA, he definitely would have been inside the circle. Now, I know there's no circle in college, but I believe officials have discretion to rule that a player is too deep under the basket to take a charge and award a block instead.

I say that only because the call couldn't possibly have been that Henderson was moving.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

Just curious - and a sure apreciation for your time you spend doing this...

How long does it take you to compile a +/- list?

[Jumbo]

Basically no time at all. Basically I just keep a running game log -- write down each score, then note when subs come in. Alternatively, you can just use the log posted on in the offiical box score on goduke.com after the game.

Then it's simply a lot of cutting and pasting of numbers and some addition. There probably am even more efficient way to do it -- I could probably track everyone's numbers in real time. But this works for me, and allows me to check for any mistakes easier.

Believe me, if this actually took a lot of effort or time, I wouldn't be doing it. ;)

[-jk]

One thing I will say in the official's defense on this play is that Gerald was very deep. If it was the NBA, he definitely would have been inside the circle. Now, I know there's no circle in college, but I believe officials have discretion to rule that a player is too deep under the basket to take a charge and award a block instead.

I say that only because the call couldn't possibly have been that Henderson was moving.

I don't think refs are given discretion to call fouls improperly. If they think a foul gives an advantage, they're supposed to call it. If no advantage is gained they can ignore it, but that's a different scenario.

As I saw it, G didn't have his right foot set, though his body seemed to be. I don't know where they draw the distinction.

-jk

[pfrduke]

I don't think refs are given discretion to call fouls improperly. If they think a foul gives an advantage, they're supposed to call it. If no advantage is gained they can ignore it, but that's a different scenario.

As I saw it, G didn't have his right foot set, though his body seemed to be. I don't know where they draw the distinction.

-jk

Well, maybe that's the discretion I'm talking about - because the player is too deep under the basket, even if he's set, it's an improper advantage to the defender.

I know in the NBA if you're set but in the circle it's a block, not a charge. I think there's a similar rule in college, only since there's no circle, it's the official's call as to whether the player is too deep. I am more than happy for someone with a rulebook/actual knowledge of this topic to correct me if I'm wrong.

[loran16]

Well, maybe that's the discretion I'm talking about - because the player is too deep under the basket, even if he's set, it's an improper advantage to the defender.

I know in the NBA if you're set but in the circle it's a block, not a charge. I think there's a similar rule in college, only since there's no circle, it's the official's call as to whether the player is too deep. I am more than happy for someone with a rulebook/actual knowledge of this topic to correct me if I'm wrong.

No you are wrong in this case. There is no circle or circle-like concept in college basketballl. It's a made up concept of the NBA.

Now if a player takes a charge so deep that the ball goes in the hoop before he takes the charge, then the basket can count in college hoops. But the charge still gets called.

[Saratoga2]

Jumbo

The statistics that you compile are really interesting to me and of course your comments that a one game snaapshot can at times be misleading. Perhaps there should be a thread to capture all the unique views and comments about the use of these. The latest insight that players who are involved in the slow down game when we are ahead at the end get penalized statistically, since they use a lot of clock before trying to score is an obvious one, but was never mentioned before to the best of my knowlege.

I too had a hard time understanding why Thomas should have such low numbers this time, since he seemed to be playing fairly well.

[ACCBBallFan]

It's interesting how +/1 does not always correlate to indivudual stats that only measure offensive contributions for the most part and not how well the guy they are guarding did or the unit on floor at same time.

While Kyle was clearly player of the game, by end of game, Hummel's stats were not that far behind though most of his damage was after game was out of reach.

Moore's performance had to be Purdue's biggest disapppointment.

I thought their big guy Calasan played very well, but coach Painter did not seem to want to play him much.

In many ways, watching Purdue with its talent but youth reminded me a lot of Duke last year in effect playing Duke this year. That extra 10 man years or so experience more than makes up for losing Demarcus and King, and though the three frosh hardly palyed vs. Purude, two will make more contributions as year progresses.

Rating STARTERS
82 Kyle Singler, F
71 Jon Scheyer, G
67 Robbie Hummel, F
54 TOTALS-Duke
50 Chris Kramer, G
49 JaJuan Johnson, F-C
48 Greg Paulus, G
48 David McClure, F
45 E'Twaun Moore, G
45 Nemanja Calasan, F
44 Nolan Smith, G
44 TOTALS-Purdue
42 Gerald Henderson, G-F
37 Keaton Grant, G
37 Lance Thomas, F
30 Brian Zoubek, C
17 Marcus Green, G
14 Lewis Jackson, G
2 Elliot Williams, G
(1) Miles Plumlee, F

[mgtr]

I enjoy the lineup of Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure and Singler. Coach K must like it too, as he used it 5 times, and it was near the top in +/-. All these guys can shoot except McClure, who showed that he can shoot too. (Actually, I should say he can shoot 3, since he did make a 3). It is a fun lineup to watch.