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View Full Version : Who Can Beat UNC MBB?



NYC Duke Fan
11-28-2008, 10:04 PM
I know that it is very early in the season, but from what I have seen UNC is by far the best team in the country. It seems like it is UNC and the rest. Can they lose in the tournament..of course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can they lose a game in the ACC ...our course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can Duke beat them........maybe once but that's all.

But this is the first time in a while that one team is that much better than the rest. I know that UConn is ranked second, but I think that UNC is much better than UConn.

On another note, there was a nice story about Hansbrough helping an ailing passengere on UNC's flight home from their tournament.

sagegrouse
11-28-2008, 10:22 PM
The answer is so obvious I have to assume this is a rhetorical question.

sagegrouse

shadowfax336
11-28-2008, 10:36 PM
I mean besides the VERY obvious answer (and I think we're very well equipped to play them) I think Pitt, Louisville, and UConn can all match up with them, and UCLA and MSU could be able to by the end of the season. In the ACC I still think they'll pick up a loss or two besides the 3 we'll give them. Wake, Clemson, Maryland, Vtech, State would be the most likely teams to do that in order IMHO. (yes I put state ahead of miami etc, this is about most likely to upset UNC once, not best team

TwoDukeTattoos
11-28-2008, 10:51 PM
There are two types of teams that can beat UNC:

1) Any team who can effectively clog the passing lanes
2) Any team who can put 3 bigs into the paint at any given time

If a team can't produce any one of those two things, they'll have to play out of their minds in addition to UNC having an off night.

dukelifer
11-28-2008, 11:14 PM
I know that it is very early in the season, but from what I have seen UNC is by far the best team in the country. It seems like it is UNC and the rest. Can they lose in the tournament..of course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can they lose a game in the ACC ...our course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can Duke beat them........maybe once but that's all.

But this is the first time in a while that one team is that much better than the rest. I know that UConn is ranked second, but I think that UNC is much better than UConn.

On another note, there was a nice story about Hansbrough helping an ailing passengere on UNC's flight home from their tournament.

UNC is better now than most any team- but it is way early. Teams do get hot and can gel late, however. UNC has all the weapons, balance and experience it needs to make a log run. So if they are going to lose, it is going to take some scenarios within a game. A bunch of early fouls by Lawson will likely hamper them. Drew is capable but untested. Thus if anyone has a very good point guard that will force UNC to play D, it could lead to foul trouble. Also, Hansbrough has had his problems against very big players. So a team like UConn with a a big shot blocker could be tough for UNC. On paper, Wake is a tough matchup. We will see if they can begin to gel and play better D. As expected the number of teams that could beat them- other than Duke- is pretty small. But this is not surprising as they only lost 3 games last year and replace the two players that left with reasonable substitutes. I suspect that UNC will more than likely beat themselves with a bad stretch at the end of a game they thought they had in hand.

Newton_14
11-28-2008, 11:42 PM
Duke, Uconn, Louisville, Duke, Wake, Miami, Tennessee, etc etc etc

Yes, they are good, really good. But, they can still go down to any one of about 10-15 teams on any given night..

I hope they continue to get all the press, keep getting told how unbeatable they are, and all the talking heads keep talking them up as much as possible..

meanwhile the Blue Devils can fly low under the radar...

One final note, unz was declared World Beaters in the NCAA tourney last year after rolling over everyone on the way to the final four where they found themselves down by 30 points with basically the exact same team as they have now...

Jumbo
11-28-2008, 11:50 PM
Ademola Okulaja.

speedevil
11-28-2008, 11:50 PM
I know that it is very early in the season, but from what I have seen UNC is by far the best team in the country. It seems like it is UNC and the rest. Can they lose in the tournament..of course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can they lose a game in the ACC ...our course they can, but I'm not sure to whom. Can Duke beat them........maybe once but that's all.

But this is the first time in a while that one team is that much better than the rest. I know that UConn is ranked second, but I think that UNC is much better than UConn.

On another note, there was a nice story about Hansbrough helping an ailing passengere on UNC's flight home from their tournament.

never doubt the blue devils

Heelkiller1
11-29-2008, 02:16 AM
I am so sick of hearing about the Holes . Not only can they be beat , they will be beat,and it will be by Duke .

Heelkiller1
11-29-2008, 02:32 AM
I am already sick of hearing about the TarHoles this year (and any year really),and it is getting worse. I am half way around world and all i hear about is how "great" the Holes are and how they "might" go undefeated. I really can't wait for Duke to wipe that smirk off their silly faces. GO DUKE

9F

mo.st.dukie
11-29-2008, 02:36 AM
I am so sick of hearing about the Holes .

Me too, and it's only November, it'll most likely get much worse similar to all the NE Patriots hype last year, hopefully the same ending will happen to the Heels.

Heelkiller1
11-29-2008, 02:41 AM
Me too, and it's only November, it'll most likely get much worse similar to all the NE Patriots hype last year, hopefully the same ending will happen to the Heels.

Preach on brother

CameronCrazy'11
11-29-2008, 05:10 AM
Remember that the Heels are playing with basically the same team they were last year. That means they're not going to have the adjustment period that a lot of teams have when they're figuring out how their system is gonna work and their freshman are adjusting. Expect a lot of other teams to catch up once they get their game figured out.

CameronCrazy'11
11-29-2008, 05:14 AM
It's really starting to bug me listening to Jay Bilas get turned on every time Hansbrough scores a basket. Or the fact, that I can't even watch a Duke game without hearing about how poor Tyler's ankle is feeling today. The sports media love for them is so ridiculous right now. None of them will even admit that the Heels might possibly have some weaknesses in their team. You'd think that they were the first good team in the history of basketball. I can't wait for someone to smack them back down to Earth. If not Mich. St., then it will be us. Mark my words.

Heelkiller1
11-29-2008, 06:20 AM
I am really getting tired of Hansblah getting away with murder on the court and the media saying nothing . But every time Duke gets a good call every one starts screaming that we get ALL the calls. It is bad enough that I have to listen to Stuart Scott and the rest of the Tarhole alum on ESPN run their suck every day . Now I have to listen to a Duke grad do the same . Please some one help me out of this bad dream.

slower
11-29-2008, 08:30 AM
Once they decide what their talking points and lead stories are, they will stick with them through thick and thin. Obviously, the Holes are one of those stories this year. They will slurp over them and Hans for the rest of the year, because they believe that THAT'S what the public wants to hear about. When Hans gets to the NBA, I believe he will disappear.

On a side note, was it just me , or did Jimmy Dykes just REALLY not know what he was talking about? I found myself shaking my head quite often at things he said about Duke, as if he really hadn't even seen Duke play this year. He did amuse himself, though, by constantly talking about being in "shooting position" or something like that. What a tool.

Please, Santa, give us more Dan Shulman and Bob Knight!

Lavabe
11-29-2008, 08:49 AM
I am really getting tired of Hansblah getting away with murder on the court and the media saying nothing . But every time Duke gets a good call every one starts screaming that we get ALL the calls. It is bad enough that I have to listen to Stuart Scott and the rest of the Tarhole alum on ESPN run their suck every day . Now I have to listen to a Duke grad do the same . Please some one help me out of this bad dream.

Thoughts are with you, Heelkiller1! Massive vibes!!

Here's the other one that bothers me: how Beaker outworks everyone else. Think he outworks Jay?

I'll be VERY surprised if Knight ever says anything like that. Can't wait to hear Knight talk about what he'd do to Dancing Danny if he pulled that routine in front of Knight.

On the other hand, I'd love it if they'd show Beaker testing gravity again. Is there a clip somewhere of Beaker jumping into the pool?

Cheers,
Lavabe

ryan
11-29-2008, 09:19 AM
Duke and Maryland are the two ACC teams that stick out. Maryland has defeated the Holes the last two years. They'll choke in the tournament.

DukeDevilDeb
11-29-2008, 10:05 AM
It's deja vu all over again with the Heels... we've all heard the exact same stories about the 1991 UNLV team. Went through the season undefeated; won many games by 30 points or more... I remember John Saunders saying that Duke couldn't beat them in the Final Four even if Duke went into the UNLV lockerroom, tied their shoelaces together, locked the doors, etc. etc... Saunders was utterly convinced that UNLV was invincible... and so was most of the country and all of the media!

Thank heavens for a cocky 6'11" center, a point guard who could read the floor in a flash and shoot 3s with abandon, terrific shooters, a great defense, and a coach who wouldn't lose... here's what the Duke archives say about that game:

March 30, 1991 — Duke upsets unbeaten UNLV, considered at the time the greatest team in college basketball history, 79-77, to advance to the NCAA
championship for the fifth time and avenge its 1990 loss to the Rebels.

I don't know for sure that we will beat UNC, but I know for damn sure that we can! Go DEVILS! GTHC! :D

studdlee10
11-29-2008, 11:08 AM
The Heels are an experienced team. They aren't going to have the same hiccups as other teams early in the season. They have a solid group of scorers and an all american big man manning the post. Not to mention they have a 3-year starter at the PG position.

As talented as they are, UNC is not unbeatable. Notre Dame is an example of a team that physically just couldn't keep up, but there are a slew of teams out there who are. I believe that UConn has a great shot at taking down UNC.

Any team that wants to beat UNC has to be able to keep Lawson from running wild in the lane and has to make Hansbrough work for his points. This is certainly doable. Look at how easily Kansas was able to control Hans last year. In order to do this, the game has to be evenly called. I know, as a Duke fan we don't have a ton of room to complain about refs, but I truly believe that one of the biggest reasons UNC has fallen short in the tournament is because the games are called fairly. I have nothing but respect for Tyler Hansbrough as a player, but there hasn't been a player in the NCAAs in a long time who relies so heavily on FTs and whose whole game is predicated on getting fouled. No more 3-4 step post-ups, no more pushing off with the off hand, no more bail out fouls....all things Hansbrough thrives on in ACC play because the refs let him get away with it. Blake Griffin is a better player and athlete than Hansbrough, and he didn't get half the calls/respect against Purdue that Hansbrough would have.

captmojo
11-29-2008, 11:12 AM
Don't forget to add Roy Williams to the list.

Wander
11-29-2008, 11:29 AM
Remember that the Heels are playing with basically the same team they were last year. That means they're not going to have the adjustment period that a lot of teams have when they're figuring out how their system is gonna work and their freshman are adjusting.

This is key. I'm not sure why anyone is freaking out about the Notre Dame game - UNC and Notre Dame are the exact same teams as last year, and UNC was much better than ND last year (tournament results - ND loses to WSU by 20, WSU then loses next round to UNC by 20).

As for the original question, I think Pitt matches up really well with UNC.

jv001
11-29-2008, 01:09 PM
Like others have said, unc has experienced players returning. Their point guard is playing like he has something to prove after being overlooked by NBA scouts. Coach K has a way of taking real good teams out of their comfort zone and I expect him to do that when we play the holes. I expect a split of the two regular season games and then on to post season. No matter what I'm going to enjoy this years team and not get ahead of myself worrying about games down the line. Go Duke!

Udaman
11-29-2008, 01:22 PM
UNC is not going to lose this year. They are a deep, experienced team with a great coach, playing in an era where deep, experienced teams are hard to come by. They have the best player in college, and probably the best point guard.

I hope I'm wrong - but right now, I don't see them losing to anyone.

Papa John
11-29-2008, 03:37 PM
UNC is not going to lose this year. They are a deep, experienced team with a great coach, playing in an era where deep, experienced teams are hard to come by. They have the best player in college, and probably the best point guard.

I hope I'm wrong - but right now, I don't see them losing to anyone.

As we all should remember, the only team that can beat UNC is UNC (per Ademola Okulaja, if I recall correctly)... Of course, they're good for at least 2-6 self-flagellations per season, so there you go...

Cavlaw
11-29-2008, 04:11 PM
Ditka.

Kedsy
11-29-2008, 06:13 PM
UNC is not going to lose this year. They are a deep, experienced team with a great coach, playing in an era where deep, experienced teams are hard to come by. They have the best player in college, and probably the best point guard.

I hope I'm wrong - but right now, I don't see them losing to anyone.

Gee, I guess Division I basketball hasn't had any deep, experienced teams over the past 32 years. I never looked at it that way before.

dukestheheat
11-29-2008, 09:07 PM
One thing I've noted about several Duke opponents over the last 5 years or so: the teams that play us well come in believing that they can win the game! They choose to match Duke in terms of attitude, intensity, and swagger. This usually knocks Duke back and the recovery for Duke sometimes goes into the second half.

Note also the Kansas team of last year: loaded with talent but facing a super strong UNC team, Kansas came out with the attitude that they were going to KILL UNC. Not just win the game, but Kansas set out to ABUSE Carolina, starting with Hansbrough. What we all witnessed was the modern day equivalent of college basketball's Friday the 13th horror movie (very much to my delight, let me tell you.......).

So, taking from that, I'll say that the team who comes in versus UNC believing that they can win will stand a better chance of winning than one that stands around asking themselves 'who in the world can beat this team?' If talent is about equal, I think it comes down to mindset.

dth.

lifelongdevil
11-29-2008, 09:11 PM
if talent won out every time we wouldn't play the games.

not to be optimistic but i think we could revisit this thread on the night of Feb 11

ncexnyc
11-30-2008, 01:07 AM
It appears that UNC's victory over the Irish will now be questioned, as it is being reported on ESPN that Harangody came down with pneumonia after the Texas game, but played against UNC anyway.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3733485

footballfan2
11-30-2008, 01:34 AM
UNC will be beaten. I just don't know by who.

Who who cares if you lose? The question is whether UNC loses when it counts. I'm not too sure. They have so many weapons. Plus they are very experienced. We used to make such a big deal about senior leadership. Well UNC is basically a team of seniors and juniors.

They will be very tough to beat. In my opinion they have the potential to better than the 2005 UNC team and the 2001 Duke team.

CameronCrazy'11
11-30-2008, 02:13 AM
Until UNC can prove that whatever let Kansas get up 40-12 on them is no longer an issue, they can still be beat. For all they hype/ sportscaster arousal surrounding Tyler Hansbrough, he can be contained by big/ physical post players (even Zoubek did a pretty good job guarding him). If he runs into a tough matchup while the shooters are having an off-night, UNC is very vulnerable. I wouldn't be too surprised if they lost to a mid-tier ACC team this year ala their loss to Maryland last year.

What I've seen of our team this year is already making me feel a lot more confident about how we match up with them this year. Nolan (and maybe Email too) will help to slow Lawson down, and so much of their offense is predicated on his speed in the full-court. I think Zoubek will do a good job again of denying Hansbrough. Scheyer and Henderson match up well with Ellington and Ginyard/ Green. I think Thomas and Singler will do well against UNC's defense. And Paulus always seems to be on fire against the Heels. Even though everyone not associated with Duke has already written us off, I still think we have a very good shot of winning against them.

Heelkiller1
11-30-2008, 08:56 AM
Is it weird that I hate the Holes more today than yesterday?

davekay1971
11-30-2008, 09:08 AM
Is it weird that I hate the Holes more today than yesterday?

It's never wierd to hate the 'holes. We should start out life feeling like there's something just vaguely wrong with that shade of blue and have an ill-defined distaste for anyone wearing it. As we grow up, and learn all that is truly evil and wrong about 'Hole-hood, we refine that distaste and learn to truly loathe it. Every encounter with 'Hole-nation builds a stronger and stronger foundation for a growing hatred. So, really, it's natural, sensible, and logical (really, it's a sign of a sane and rational mind) to hate the Holes more each and every day.

By the way, thank you for your service. It's nice to know that there's at least one government-trained heelkiller out there.

davekay1971
11-30-2008, 09:15 AM
Until UNC can prove that whatever let Kansas get up 40-12 on them is no longer an issue, they can still be beat. For all they hype/ sportscaster arousal surrounding Tyler Hansbrough, he can be contained by big/ physical post players (even Zoubek did a pretty good job guarding him). If he runs into a tough matchup while the shooters are having an off-night, UNC is very vulnerable. I wouldn't be too surprised if they lost to a mid-tier ACC team this year ala their loss to Maryland last year.

What I've seen of our team this year is already making me feel a lot more confident about how we match up with them this year. Nolan (and maybe Email too) will help to slow Lawson down, and so much of their offense is predicated on his speed in the full-court. I think Zoubek will do a good job again of denying Hansbrough. Scheyer and Henderson match up well with Ellington and Ginyard/ Green. I think Thomas and Singler will do well against UNC's defense. And Paulus always seems to be on fire against the Heels. Even though everyone not associated with Duke has already written us off, I still think we have a very good shot of winning against them.

I wholeheartedly agree with the above analysis. I would only add that Tywon Lawson is the difference-maker. He looks much better than last year, which is saying something. If he stays healthy and continues to play at the level he has so far, it makes Carolina very tough to beat. The 'Holes, otherwise, to paraphrase Dennis Green, are what we thought they were. If ESPN wants to crown them, then crown their a**es. Hansbrough will get his points, if for no other reason than the 3 zebras tend to assume that (1) he never fouls; and (2) he is always fouled. Ellington is a spot up shooter but can disappear for stretches; I think Scheyer and Henderson can both contain him. Green is playing for the scouts, but he can also be contained. The big question is Lawson - if he can get into the lane, he makes the whole Carolina offense much, much better, and there's very few guards that can keep him out of the lane. Smith should have that matchup circled on his calendar...preventing quick guards like Lawson from penetrating the defense is reason number 1 that he's starting and Greg is not.

Wheat/"/"/"
11-30-2008, 11:16 AM
Heelo all, :), sorry I can't seem to get around here too often...

Respectfully, all of you who think this is the same UNC team as last year are crazy. This team is much better.

Heres the deal...
Hansbrough is the NPOY of the year for a reason. And he's better. Did you guys see that he shot 150 3's a day and hit 67% over the summer? (charted by a manager). I'd say he'll show more of a mid range game as the season goes on. And he gets away with fouling? Please, he gets mugged more than Shaq. He travels all the time? Fact is he doesn't get moved off his piviot foot from the contact like everyone else because of his strength.
Deon Thompson has improved greatly, more confident and in better shape.
They have upgraded the bench with Davis and Drew. Davis plays long and springy with a nose for the ball. A big improvement over Stepheson, even as a freshman, and especially on defense. The same with Davis. He is a better player than Q. Thomas was already ...as a freshman. He's quicker, a better ball handler, and much more composed with the ball. He's a better defender too...the needed area of improvement. There is not a lot of worry when Davis fills in for Lawson, like there was when Q stepped on the floor last year.
Don't forget Bobby Frasor is back as well and brings defensivie intensity and leadership too...
About the only area I see that is roughly the same as last year is the play of Green and Ellington, and that was and is pretty good overall.
Will Graves is a wild card, can shoot it and himself in the foot on any given play.
And Ginyard will return with his quality play too.
Finally the biggest improvement I've seen so far is in the play of Lawson. He seems to have matured and harnessed his attitude and talent. While some may argue this is TH's team, I say it's Lawson's and he is out to prove it.
This is not last years Tar Heel team....

Can they be beat? Of course they can. It's college basketball. But they will and should be the favorite in every game they play this year. And if they lose, it will be an upset.

It's a good year to be a Heel fan, just because of the reaction of Duke fans to this team...gotta love this game!

Wheat/"/"/"

YmoBeThere
11-30-2008, 11:56 AM
I've seen them play Ping-Pong. They don't look that tough...

Wander
11-30-2008, 12:23 PM
Respectfully, all of you who think this is the same UNC team as last year are crazy. This team is much better.


UNC has the same point guard, the same shooting guard, the same small forward, the same power forward, the same center, the same coach, the same 6th man, and the same system. None of those players were freshmen last year, the coach wasn't a first or second year coach, and the system has been the same for a few years.

UNC should be a little better because it's an extra year of experience and they have a better backup point and maybe a better backup forward, but the team won't be all that different from last year's team.

Jumbo
11-30-2008, 12:28 PM
Heelo all, :), sorry I can't seem to get around here too often...

Respectfully, all of you who think this is the same UNC team as last year are crazy. This team is much better.

Heres the deal...
Hansbrough is the NPOY of the year for a reason. And he's better. Did you guys see that he shot 150 3's a day and hit 67% over the summer? (charted by a manager). I'd say he'll show more of a mid range game as the season goes on. And he gets away with fouling? Please, he gets mugged more than Shaq. He travels all the time? Fact is he doesn't get moved off his piviot foot from the contact like everyone else because of his strength.
Deon Thompson has improved greatly, more confident and in better shape.
They have upgraded the bench with Davis and Drew. Davis plays long and springy with a nose for the ball. A big improvement over Stepheson, even as a freshman, and especially on defense. The same with Davis. He is a better player than Q. Thomas was already ...as a freshman. He's quicker, a better ball handler, and much more composed with the ball. He's a better defender too...the needed area of improvement. There is not a lot of worry when Davis fills in for Lawson, like there was when Q stepped on the floor last year.
Don't forget Bobby Frasor is back as well and brings defensivie intensity and leadership too...
About the only area I see that is roughly the same as last year is the play of Green and Ellington, and that was and is pretty good overall.
Will Graves is a wild card, can shoot it and himself in the foot on any given play.
And Ginyard will return with his quality play too.
Finally the biggest improvement I've seen so far is in the play of Lawson. He seems to have matured and harnessed his attitude and talent. While some may argue this is TH's team, I say it's Lawson's and he is out to prove it.
This is not last years Tar Heel team....

Can they be beat? Of course they can. It's college basketball. But they will and should be the favorite in every game they play this year. And if they lose, it will be an upset.

It's a good year to be a Heel fan, just because of the reaction of Duke fans to this team...gotta love this game!

Wheat/"/"/"

Welcome back, Wheat! How's the fishing going?

natedog4ever
11-30-2008, 12:46 PM
Heelo all, :), sorry I can't seem to get around here too often...

Respectfully, all of you who think this is the same UNC team as last year are crazy. This team is much better.

Wheat/"/"/"

I guess the real question is: Are they "30 points against a team like Kansas" better? I think the best strategy for UNC is just to hope they don't encounter a team like that again in the tournament.

For me, it will be intersesting to see how the season wears on the guys trying to prove themselves to the League. As the games get tougher and one guy starts taking more of the shots, do others start pressing? Does Green become a black hole? Does Ellington pout as his NBA dreams dissolve?

Wheat/"/"/"
11-30-2008, 12:52 PM
Good to be back...I lurk a lot but never seem to have time to post.
Still haven't "caught" a Duke game yet, I'll try to get by with my thoughts when I do. I expect to see a very good team.
My tournament fishing in a word, sucks. Back to back sub par seasons and an economy that caused me to lose a whole bunch of sponsorship dollars has me cutting back in '09.
I'm a realist, so it's time for me to focus on my business (http://4tarpon.wordpress.com/)moreso than the tournaments, for a while at least.
I'm sure many are in the same boat...pun intended :)

Wheat/"/"/"

Wheat/"/"/"
11-30-2008, 01:09 PM
Nate,
That Kansas game was an anomaly, just one of those weird games that we will have to live with as Heel fans. Nobody believes that UNC was as bad as they played in that first half. And for Roy to be stubborn to not call time out will go down as the biggest blunder of his coaching career.
But hey, everybody makes mistakes and games like that are why we watch college basketball.
You're right about it being interesting to see how the players share the ball and the limelight the rest of the season, so far so good...
Again, that's where Ty Lawson needs to step up and run the team because every player knows, or should know. he is the "straw that stirs the drink".

Wheat/"/"/"

dukelifer
11-30-2008, 01:22 PM
This is not last years Tar Heel team....

Can they be beat? Of course they can. It's college basketball. But they will and should be the favorite in every game they play this year. And if they lose, it will be an upset.

Wheat/"/"/"

There is no question the UNC guys are better- they have all worked on their games- probably Dion Thompson has been the most impressive in that regard. They should romp through the regular season. The big question in the end is their mental toughness. Will the pressure of being the overwhelming favorite this season wear on them - particularly in the tourney against a hot team with nothing to lose -particularly after what happened in the first 10 minutes of the Kansas game last season and the last 5 minutes of the Georgetown team the year before? This is now all about mental toughness and no one knows how this team will respond when they get in that close game in the tourney. So far this team- with mostly these players - has struggled in big moments. In the end all that matters to UNC fans is winning the championship. It is not about how well Hansbrough holds his pivot foot in traffic or hits threes in practice or how fast Lawson is coast to coast- one of these guys need to perform in the big game. Who will be their Jordan or May? Anything less than a championship will be a huge disappointment for this team.

Wheat/"/"/"
11-30-2008, 01:38 PM
There is no question the UNC guys are better- they have all worked on their games- probably Dion Thompson has been the most impressive in that regard. They should romp through the regular season. The big question in the end is their mental toughness. Will the pressure of being the overwhelming favorite this season wear on them - particularly in the tourney against a hot team with nothing to lose -particularly after what happened in the first 10 minutes of the Kansas game last season and the last 5 minutes of the Georgetown team the year before? This is now all about mental toughness and no one knows how this team will respond when they get in that close game in the tourney. So far this team- with mostly these players - has struggled in big moments. In the end all that matters to UNC fans is winning the championship. It is not about how well Hansbrough holds his pivot foot in traffic or hits threes in practice or how fast Lawson is coast to coast- one of these guys need to perform in the big game. Who will be their Jordan or May? Anything less than a championship will be a huge disappointment for this team.


I agree...and why I'll be watching.
Wheat/"/"/"

dukelifer
11-30-2008, 02:27 PM
I agree...and why I'll be watching.
Wheat/"/"/"
For a Duke fan, this is actually a good year to watch UNC- because if the win - well they deserved it and if they lose- well... we probably won't be crying. Having watched the 1992 Duke's team run- I can tell you that it was not very enjoyable as a fan- to be the overwhelming favorite and then to endure a couple of near-heart breaking close games in the NCAA's- it was not fun until the end. I barely remember a regular season game that year- except the couple Duke lost.

hurleyfor3
11-30-2008, 05:40 PM
Sean May.

Oh, I thought you said eat. Sorry.

JDev
11-30-2008, 06:52 PM
Gee, I guess Division I basketball hasn't had any deep, experienced teams over the past 32 years. I never looked at it that way before.

I think if you actually take a look at what he wrote he said that "experienced teams are hard to come by," and I would argue that that is true moreso than it was 10+ years ago. I think there are fewer teams with superstar players with big game experience, due to the lore of millions. UNC absolutely has that, and that puts them ahead of everyone else in the country right now, by a good margin. As the season progresses a lot of teams will grow and close that gap a great deal, and there will be several teams that could be as good or better by March.

Wheat/"/"/"
11-30-2008, 09:44 PM
As the season progresses a lot of teams will grow and close that gap a great deal, and there will be several teams that could be as good or better by March.

Or the UNC talent could gell and the Heels could become a college basketball monster....:)

Wheat/"/"/"

Kedsy
11-30-2008, 10:33 PM
I think if you actually take a look at what he wrote he said that "experienced teams are hard to come by," and I would argue that that is true moreso than it was 10+ years ago. I think there are fewer teams with superstar players with big game experience, due to the lore of millions. UNC absolutely has that, and that puts them ahead of everyone else in the country right now, by a good margin. As the season progresses a lot of teams will grow and close that gap a great deal, and there will be several teams that could be as good or better by March.

I saw what he wrote, and even if deep, experienced teams are harder to come by than they were 10 years ago, they haven't been impossible to come by. There are at least two or three (or more) in the nation every single year (including all four Final Four teams last year, even though two of them had talented freshmen, they all also had a fair number of talented non-freshmen). And none of these teams have gone undefeated. This year's UNC team is good, no question. But the 1999 and 2001 Duke teams (< 10 years ago) didn't go undefeated, nor did the 2005 UNC team (< 5 years ago) and all of those teams were not only experienced, they were all significantly better than this year's UNC team.

I don't even understand why we're having this discussion.

shadowfax336
11-30-2008, 11:59 PM
Not UNC Asheville

JDev
12-01-2008, 12:51 AM
I saw what he wrote, and even if deep, experienced teams are harder to come by than they were 10 years ago, they haven't been impossible to come by. There are at least two or three (or more) in the nation every single year (including all four Final Four teams last year, even though two of them had talented freshmen, they all also had a fair number of talented non-freshmen). And none of these teams have gone undefeated. This year's UNC team is good, no question. But the 1999 and 2001 Duke teams (< 10 years ago) didn't go undefeated, nor did the 2005 UNC team (< 5 years ago) and all of those teams were not only experienced, they were all significantly better than this year's UNC team.

I don't even understand why we're having this discussion.

Did someone suggest UNC would go undefeated? They are clearly the best team right now, but going undefeated will not happen. Speaking of me, I was simply saying they are the best right now because with their upperclass talent they really do not have a learning curve, but some other teams with the tools will gain experience and catch up as the season progresses. I don't think the question is if they will go undefeated, but more who has the talent to legitimately challenge them on a national scene.

Wheat/"/"/"
12-01-2008, 10:00 AM
Did someone suggest UNC would go undefeated? They are clearly the best team right now, but going undefeated will not happen.

I'm the brave, opinionated sort, so I will suggest they "should" go undefeated. And I will say now that I don't think the Heels will enter a single game this season where they are not considered the favorite. And I'm loving the fact that with every win, the noose tightens up a little more on my buddies in dark blue. Admit it, you've all thought it just might happen:)

The overall talent level and depth is there to go undefeated. Mainly because they were lucky (or smart?) to have the unexpected return of top players combining with top recruits that filled specific needs..and they are actually living up to expectations, all in a season when college basketball teams generally seem weaker.

And it's telling that they are looking this strong with TH spending lots of time on the bench, Ginyard out, Zeller out, Copeland Out....
If this team had avoided the injury bug....would you really be worried?

The valid questions are....who is going to be the Sean May, MJ, of this team? The player who takes control, embraces game pressure and raises the level of play.

Will they be lucky somewhere along the way?

As Ty Lawson goes, goes the chance to go undefeated...In my opinion.

Of course, I love competitive pressures and have no fear of "failure" beyond not trying so I say they should win every game...Oh, and I was the guy who thought Brian Bersticker would become a player. So take my opinions with a gran of salt.

Wheat/"/"/" (http://4tarpon.wordpress.com/)

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 10:06 AM
I guess the real question is: Are they "30 points against a team like Kansas" better? I think the best strategy for UNC is just to hope they don't encounter a team like that again in the tournament.

For me, it will be intersesting to see how the season wears on the guys trying to prove themselves to the League. As the games get tougher and one guy starts taking more of the shots, do others start pressing? Does Green become a black hole? Does Ellington pout as his NBA dreams dissolve?

UNC didn't lose to Kansas by 30. They lost by 18. The teams that played to the 44-12 score are the same teams that played a game that was within two possessions late in the second half. Cherry-picking game results is intellectually dishonest.

Those who are saying that UNC will "choke" again are also showing little understanding of statistics and probabilities. The NCAA tournament always requires a bit of luck. Consider it this way- if you are the #1 seed, you essentially play five games against teams that have a decent shot to beat you. Even if you have a team that is so good that you are, on average, considered to have a 85% chance of winning each of those five games (a preposterously high number that probably would apply to maybe two or three teams in the 64-team era), you still only have a 44% chance of winning the whole thing.

One-and-done means the road is always hard and anything can happen, no matter how good you are. Duke fans have seen their team upset one of the most dominant teams of the modern era (1991 UNLV) and have also watched as their most dominant team ever (1999) fell victim to a shocking upset. 1991 UNLV and 1999 Duke didn't choke. Choking is when you visibly fall apart because you can't handle the stress of a situation. That almost never happens with elite athletes. Sometimes a loss is just a loss.

Duke79UNLV77
12-01-2008, 10:08 AM
in unc's last 6 possessions with the shot clock still on, they shot with an average of 24 seconds left on the shot clock. then, they shot again with the shot clock off for good measure.

i expect teams to play hard, and you're going to get huge margins of victory when the talent disparity is large. that said, i don't agree with ole roy's tactic of continuing to allow very quick shots at the end of games. i've seen his teams do this more in the past few years than i recall seeing from anyone in my 30 years as an acc fan. it's clearly systemic and condoned by ole roy. call me old school, but i don't like it.

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 10:27 AM
in unc's last 6 possessions with the shot clock still on, they shot with an average of 24 seconds left on the shot clock. then, they shot again with the shot clock off for good measure.

i expect teams to play hard, and you're going to get huge margins of victory when the talent disparity is large. that said, i don't agree with ole roy's tactic of continuing to allow very quick shots at the end of games. i've seen his teams do this more in the past few years than i recall seeing from anyone in my 30 years as an acc fan. it's clearly systemic and condoned by ole roy. call me old school, but i don't like it.

You can think what you want to think, but in the interest of fairness, it's probably worth pointing out that the "they" in question was not Lawson, Ellington and Green, but Tanner, Wooten and Moody. No UNC starter played more than 27 minutes, and I don't recall seeing any of them on the court after the 12-minute TV timeout. Will Graves and Bobby Frasor played more minutes than Danny Green. I don't think UNC had anyone over 6'5" on the court for the last five minutes or so. These are kids that walked on to the JV and busted their buns for years to have a shot to sit on the bench with the varsity. If UNC wins the title, some of these kids will now have their names and a per-game scoring average listed as contributors to a national championship team. They'll probably have the box score from this game framed and hanging on their wall thirty years from now. You want them to pass up on that just so UNCA can lose by 62 instead of 68?

Duke79UNLV77
12-01-2008, 10:41 AM
but it doesn't change my view. it would make me cringe to see duke's benchwarmers and walk-ons take quick shots and choose not to let the shot clock run out, too. i think the walk-ons would want to remember playing with dignity and respect for their own school, their opponents, and the game itself.

of course, i've also seen ole roy's starters decline to let the shot clock run out, too. some people may not have a problem with this. i do.

davekay1971
12-01-2008, 10:42 AM
You can think what you want to think, but in the interest of fairness, it's probably worth pointing out that the "they" in question was not Lawson, Ellington and Green, but Tanner, Wooten and Moody. No UNC starter played more than 27 minutes, and I don't recall seeing any of them on the court after the 12-minute TV timeout. Will Graves and Bobby Frasor played more minutes than Danny Green. I don't think UNC had anyone over 6'5" on the court for the last five minutes or so. These are kids that walked on to the JV and busted their buns for years to have a shot to sit on the bench with the varsity. If UNC wins the title, some of these kids will now have their names and a per-game scoring average listed as contributors to a national championship team. They'll probably have the box score from this game framed and hanging on their wall thirty years from now. You want them to pass up on that just so UNCA can lose by 62 instead of 68?


They made a heinous mistake in choosing to wear that color blue, so I have no sympathy or mercy for any ill that befalls them.

That being said, UNC is not going to win the national championship, because they're going to have to go through Duke to do it. And that's just not going to happen.

Simple math:
Singler > Hansbrough
Henderson > Ellington
Smith > Lawson
My great aunt Edna > Dancin' Danny Green
Jon Scheyer >>>>>>> Dancin' Danny Green
Lance Thomas > Deon Thompson
Our Bench > Your Bench
Our Coach > Your Coach
ergo: Duke > Carolina

Irrefutable logic, if you ask me ;)

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 10:56 AM
but it doesn't change my view. it would make me cringe to see duke's benchwarmers and walk-ons take quick shots and choose not to let the shot clock run out, too. i think the walk-ons would want to remember playing with dignity and respect for their own school, their opponents, and the game itself.

of course, i've also seen ole roy's starters decline to let the shot clock run out, too. some people may not have a problem with this. i do.

That's fine. However, I seem to recall seeing Duke players take unnecessary three pointers relatively early in the shot clock late in games, too. I have a specific recollection of JJ getting a lot of flack for doing exactly this. So I think your dark blue colored glasses might be informing your viewpoint here. Which is fine- I'm sure my baby blue glasses inform my viewpoint all the time.

That said, it's my opinion that integrity and respect for the game means playing it the way you were taught. That means if ball movement and teamwork leads to an open shot, you take it. What's more insulting to an opponent- watching a bench guy hit a wide-open three with 20 seconds left on the shot clock, or watching a bench guy pass up a wide-open three with 20 seconds left on the shot clock just to pass the ball around some more (and, possibly, keeping the low-profile team's walk-ons from being able to say that they scored a point on the Dean Dome floor)? Reasonable minds can disagree on that, I think.

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 10:59 AM
They made a heinous mistake in choosing to wear that color blue, so I have no sympathy or mercy for any ill that befalls them.

That being said, UNC is not going to win the national championship, because they're going to have to go through Duke to do it. And that's just not going to happen.

Simple math:
Singler > Hansbrough
Henderson > Ellington
Smith > Lawson
My great aunt Edna > Dancin' Danny Green
Jon Scheyer >>>>>>> Dancin' Danny Green
Lance Thomas > Deon Thompson
Our Bench > Your Bench
Our Coach > Your Coach
ergo: Duke > Carolina

Irrefutable logic, if you ask me ;)

Well done.

Of course, I could point out that if Duke's recent history is any indication, UNC won't have to go through Duke to win the tourney unless the teams are somehow put in the same sub-region ;)

Wander
12-01-2008, 11:02 AM
Of course, I could point out that if Duke's recent history is any indication, UNC won't have to go through Duke to win the tourney unless the teams are somehow put in the same sub-region ;)

Duke-UNC play-in game?

davekay1971
12-01-2008, 01:33 PM
Well done.

Of course, I could point out that if Duke's recent history is any indication, UNC won't have to go through Duke to win the tourney unless the teams are somehow put in the same sub-region ;)

So your response is "scoreboard"? Unfortunately, I've got nothing for you on that one.

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 01:47 PM
So your response is "scoreboard"? Unfortunately, I've got nothing for you on that one.

Well, I don't think you'd want to hear my actual response to your greater than/less than evaluations. They certainly wouldn't be appropriate for a Duke message board.

Although I will say that I agree with you on Scheyer. As a UNC guy, I can definitely say that our defensive matchups at the 2/3 with Henderson and Scheyer are the thing that scares me the most about a UNC-Duke matchup, especially if Ginyard loses a step when he gets back, or doesn't come back at all.

Scheyer's also one of my "favorite" Duke players ever- obviously a relative thing coming from a UNC fan, but I like his game, and he seems to handle that whole "Scheyer face" thing with an impressive and mature attitude and sense of humor.

sagegrouse
12-01-2008, 02:06 PM
You can think what you want to think, but in the interest of fairness, it's probably worth pointing out that the "they" in question was not Lawson, Ellington and Green, but Tanner, Wooten and Moody. No UNC starter played more than 27 minutes, and I don't recall seeing any of them on the court after the 12-minute TV timeout. Will Graves and Bobby Frasor played more minutes than Danny Green. I don't think UNC had anyone over 6'5" on the court for the last five minutes or so. These are kids that walked on to the JV and busted their buns for years to have a shot to sit on the bench with the varsity. If UNC wins the title, some of these kids will now have their names and a per-game scoring average listed as contributors to a national championship team. They'll probably have the box score from this game framed and hanging on their wall thirty years from now. You want them to pass up on that just so UNCA can lose by 62 instead of 68?

Duke does basically the same thing. Typically it is to let the reserves play at full speed until the last 1:30, when Duke practices the "milk the clock" routine so necessary in close games.

Against Duquesne, e.g., we played at such a fast pace we turned a 40 point lead into a 20 point lead (instead of a 60 point lead). Does this qualify as "good sportsmanship," whereas running a 40 point lead up to a 60 point lead is "bad sportsmanship?"

A rhetorical question --

sagegrouse

JDev
12-01-2008, 02:19 PM
These are all interesting points, but I am like Ol' Roy in that I could give a sh*t about Carolina.

jv001
12-01-2008, 02:30 PM
Nate,
That Kansas game was an anomaly, just one of those weird games that we will have to live with as Heel fans. Nobody believes that UNC was as bad as they played in that first half. And for Roy to be stubborn to not call time out will go down as the biggest blunder of his coaching career.
But hey, everybody makes mistakes and games like that are why we watch college basketball.
You're right about it being interesting to see how the players share the ball and the limelight the rest of the season, so far so good...
Again, that's where Ty Lawson needs to step up and run the team because every player knows, or should know. he is the "straw that stirs the drink".

Wheat/"/"/"

Your comment about old roy not calling a timeout being the biggest blunder of his coaching career must mean you have a concern with ole roy's coaching. And you should be concerned because I'm still waiting for him to win the NCAA tourney with his players. As March get's closer is Lawson still going to put the team first and his NBA career 2nd or will it be just the opposite? Will Ellington hit the 3's at the end of the year as he seems to do at the beginning? There are just two many questions to predict that any team will go undefeated. For my Tar Heel friends that are not obnoxious, good luck and for those who are I hope your dream gets busted wide open. Go Duke!

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 02:47 PM
Your comment about old roy not calling a timeout being the biggest blunder of his coaching career must mean you have a concern with ole roy's coaching. And you should be concerned because I'm still waiting for him to win the NCAA tourney with his players. As March get's closer is Lawson still going to put the team first and his NBA career 2nd or will it be just the opposite? Will Ellington hit the 3's at the end of the year as he seems to do at the beginning? There are just two many questions to predict that any team will go undefeated. For my Tar Heel friends that are not obnoxious, good luck and for those who are I hope your dream gets busted wide open. Go Duke!

In response, and back to the original thread topic: there is no rational UNC fan who thinks the team will go undefeated. The odds against it are astronomical. Not only do they have to play Duke at least twice, including a Cameron visit, but they also have to play Wake and Miami at least twice, including visits to those stadiums. UNC won't be favored by more than a couple points in those games. Add that to the home games against those worthy opponents, where an upset is certainly within the realm of possibility, the more remote odds of a loss to a third-tier ACC teams, and the quality matchups they'd face in the ACC semis and final and the last four games of the tourney ... and it would take nothing short of a miracle to run the table.

Being the best team in the country and playing in the ACC is a lot different than being the best team in Conference USA, or the Mountain West, or even the Big Ten of the 1970s.

natedog4ever
12-01-2008, 04:05 PM
UNC didn't lose to Kansas by 30. They lost by 18. The teams that played to the 44-12 score are the same teams that played a game that was within two possessions late in the second half. Cherry-picking game results is intellectually dishonest.

Those who are saying that UNC will "choke" again are also showing little understanding of statistics and probabilities. The NCAA tournament always requires a bit of luck. Consider it this way- if you are the #1 seed, you essentially play five games against teams that have a decent shot to beat you. Even if you have a team that is so good that you are, on average, considered to have a 85% chance of winning each of those five games (a preposterously high number that probably would apply to maybe two or three teams in the 64-team era), you still only have a 44% chance of winning the whole thing.

One-and-done means the road is always hard and anything can happen, no matter how good you are. Duke fans have seen their team upset one of the most dominant teams of the modern era (1991 UNLV) and have also watched as their most dominant team ever (1999) fell victim to a shocking upset. 1991 UNLV and 1999 Duke didn't choke. Choking is when you visibly fall apart because you can't handle the stress of a situation. That almost never happens with elite athletes. Sometimes a loss is just a loss.

Definitely never said they would "choke". Sorry, but you just can't erase the stark reality of getting down by 30 in any game (call it 18 if you want, it's a blowout). Trust me, if that ever happened to Duke, you would never hear the end of it in the media or from the rival fanbase - until you erase those demons.

The thing I hate for UNC, having seen it up close with Duke, is that the only thing that will erase it is winning the champoinship. And I cannot emphasize your points regarding statistical probablities any better than you already have. I think it is completely unrealistic for anyone other than the players to expect a championship or an undefeated season. Unfortunately, that is the legacy the two programs are held to.

Biscuit
12-01-2008, 04:22 PM
Definitely never said they would "choke". Sorry, but you just can't erase the stark reality of getting down by 30 in any game (call it 18 if you want, it's a blowout). Trust me, if that ever happened to Duke, you would never hear the end of it in the media or from the rival fanbase - until you erase those demons.

The thing I hate for UNC, having seen it up close with Duke, is that the only thing that will erase it is winning the champoinship. And I cannot emphasize your points regarding statistical probablities any better than you already have. I think it is completely unrealistic for anyone other than the players to expect a championship or an undefeated season. Unfortunately, that is the legacy the two programs are held to.

My bad. Someone else said "choke," not you. I should have been more clear on that, since I quoted your post.

rsvman
12-01-2008, 04:35 PM
They're good; really good. They probably won't go undefeated. Betting the field at the NCAA against UNC is still a good bet (as is betting the field against ANYBODY in the NCAA tournament, ANY year).

Fewer teams would get blown out if they would understand that Carolina will fast break on you off your made baskets. They've been doing it for years; Ol' Roy was coaching it at Kansas for years before that; but for some reason most coaches fail to get the memo. After you make that three-pointer, you can't just stand there and admire your work. You have to be thinking "defense" the second the ball leaves your fingers.

Johnboy
12-01-2008, 05:01 PM
Is it weird that I hate the Holes more today than yesterday?

But only half as much as tomorrow?

Diddy
12-01-2008, 07:10 PM
Who Can beat UNC?

Duke, Wake, UConn, Louisville, Pitt.

Who will beat UNC? Or, to phrase it better, who is likely to beat UNC?

Uconn. Maybe.

Of the cans, almost each team would require two or more UNC players to have their worst games (approximately) in order to beat UNC. While at the same time, the underdog would still have to play a good to great game.

Essentially, I do not believe that any of the Cans are capable of beating UNC strait up. If UNC plays well, and the underdog plays well, then UNC wins handily. If UNC played near its capacity, and the undog had a great game, then an upset is possible.

UConn may, and I emphasize MAY, be able to beat UNC straight up.

But it UNC has a good to great game, I just don't see any of the other teams capable of beating them.

Kedsy
12-01-2008, 07:37 PM
Who Can beat UNC?

Duke, Wake, UConn, Louisville, Pitt.

Who will beat UNC? Or, to phrase it better, who is likely to beat UNC?

Uconn. Maybe.

Of the cans, almost each team would require two or more UNC players to have their worst games (approximately) in order to beat UNC. While at the same time, the underdog would still have to play a good to great game.

Essentially, I do not believe that any of the Cans are capable of beating UNC strait up. If UNC plays well, and the underdog plays well, then UNC wins handily. If UNC played near its capacity, and the undog had a great game, then an upset is possible.

UConn may, and I emphasize MAY, be able to beat UNC straight up.

But it UNC has a good to great game, I just don't see any of the other teams capable of beating them.

Wow, you must think they are a LOT better than they were last year. Maybe they are, but it would surprise me. Either way, I need to see more datapoints before I can make that assessment.

Diddy
12-01-2008, 09:28 PM
Wow, you must think they are a LOT better than they were last year. Maybe they are, but it would surprise me. Either way, I need to see more datapoints before I can make that assessment.

I wouldn't say that they are a LOT better, but they are definitely, and very noticably, better than last year.

Improvement By Retuning Players:
Hans: Though injured, he is displaying a killer midrange J to go along with his beastliness inside.

Green: Much improved shooter, better ball handling, and overall skill improvement.

Lawson: A little better shooting, but he is playing much tougher this year.

Ellington: Not much noticable improvement, but he is what he is, only slightly better than last year. He will hit open j's and a lot of contested j's.

Thompson: Tremendous improvement. Most improved player in the nation, by a wide margin, at this point in the year. Much better post moves, increased rebounding, great physical condition.

Green: TBD at a later date, cause hey, no reason to rush back.

And the New Players Added:

Bobby Frasor: Hurt last year, his return is huge. He is capable of playing big minutes at either guard position. His "addition" brings another perimeter shooter, team runner, and a quality defender.

Larry Drew: Solid backup pg. Nothing great, but nothing bad.

Ed Davis: Monster Frosh. Great rebounder and shot blocker. Great Athlete. Alex Stephenson Who? Ideal Substitute in the Front Court.

The newbies aren't world beaters, and with Drew and Frasor they never will be. But their presence greatly lessons the load that Lawson has to bear. By playing fewer minutes, he and Ellington can go harder and faster when he is in, and that is bad for everybody. Also, they will be well rested come March.

Davis is on the verge of being a world beater. He looks like a strong cadidate for 6th man of the year awards, both in conf and maybe nationally. He is giving them almost a double-double without being forcefed minutes. (Imagine the nightmare he would be come March if he were being forcefed minutes) When he comes in the team barely misses a beat. He is nowhere near as skilled as those ahead of him, but he is taller, more athletic, and loves to run, which suits that team to a T. If he returns next year, that kid is going to be a superbeast, and likely preseason All ACC selection, barring some unexpected returns by other players.

So, yes, I do think UNC has improved noticably. But, I would not say they are MUCH (lots) improved over last year.

That doesn't matter, AT ALL, in the question of "Can UNC be beaten?".

If you could magically, or scientifically, transport this year's UNC team to last season, they would be the best team in America, on paper. Same as last year's team. But, I would say that Kansas, UCLA, and Memphis were on par with them. Any of those three teams could play with, and beat, UNC, straight up. There is not a doubt in my mind that this UNC team would be susceptable to any of those teams.

Now, take this year's Number 2 team, Uconn. If you took this year's Uconn team back to last year, they would be no better than the 5th best team in the nation. They are worse than last year's UCLA, Kansas, and Memphis teams, and it really isn't that close.

It isn't that UNC has improved. They have, but not by leaps and bounds. But there are no other great teams in the nation. The rest of the nation's top teams have taken a huge step backward compared to last season's elite teams. No one else's talent is as high as UNC. A previous thread speculated that UNC does not have a lot of NBA talent. After a few weaks I see six surefire NBA players, with Ginyard as a possibility.

Every single other team in the Nation has at least one huge, glaring, weakness. At Duke, it is our interior play. It looks better than last year. Heck, it looks leaps and bounds better than last year. But that still isn't saying a lot (it was that bad last year). We are also inexperienced in NCAA play, given that most of our team has never seen beyond the sweet 16. Ucon is relying on young, inexperienced, oft injured players, and its forwards are inconsistent. Louisville has growing pangs and is replacing a lot of lost talent. Pitt has a ceiling on how good they can be, and may have depth issues. All the other teams are well behind UNC in talent, athleticism, skill, depth, and experience. Way behind.

It is not that UNC is fantastic. In 92 or 99, they might not have been in the top 2 in the ACC those years. But there were other great teams those years. There are no other great teams in the nation this year.

Can UNC be beat? Sure. Any team in college CAN be beat. But UNC will have to help the opposition this year. If UNC plays at or near its ability, they will be fantastically hard to beat.

Wheat/"/"/"
12-01-2008, 10:35 PM
Your comment about old roy not calling a timeout being the biggest blunder of his coaching career must mean you have a concern with ole roy's coaching. And you should be concerned because I'm still waiting for him to win the NCAA tourney with his players. As March get's closer is Lawson still going to put the team first and his NBA career 2nd or will it be just the opposite? Will Ellington hit the 3's at the end of the year as he seems to do at the beginning? There are just two many questions to predict that any team will go undefeated. For my Tar Heel friends that are not obnoxious, good luck and for those who are I hope your dream gets busted wide open. Go Duke!

Nate,
Not concerned about Roy's coaching, he's top five in the game. He just made a misjudgement in a big came. It's easy for me to call it his biggest blunder because I have the benefit of hindsight. I seem to recall a few K questionable uses of time outs in big games, and I think he's a top five coach too.

I have great confidence in Roy.

I also am gaining confidence in Ty Lawson. He just seems to have matured since last season. Just look at how he is taking care of the ball as an example. He's not "dennis the menace" any longer as Roy called him last year.
I think he now knows that if he leads this team, his stats will come and his NBA career will come.
That's just my early season sense of what is developing with him, and I'll credit Roy as coach with his improvement in the mental game.

Wheat/"/"/" (http://4tarpon.wordpress.com/)

Troublemaker
12-01-2008, 11:08 PM
I agree with Diddy. The scary thing about UNC this season is their lack of national competition. College bball is extremely weak, and at this point, I don't see a UConn '99 out there that can play the 1A role to UNC's 1. The biggest concern is not how well the other top contenders can match up with UNC; it's whether they'll even get a chance to play UNC. If the top tier of college bball is weak enough this year, I could easily see UNC getting to the Final Four and meeting two 5 seeds and a 7 seed there. On the heels of a season in which all four #1 seeds made it to the FF, I pretty much expect bedlam to occur in the 2009 tournament, and UNC stands to benefit.

That said, any serious prediction of UNC going undefeated for the season is a joke. I mean, the statistical odds of that happening must be less than 1%, even for a team this strong. But I agree -- who cares? I'm sure UNC fans would gladly take a 36-3 season as long as it ends with Hansbrough getting a championship.

Speaking of which, I don't expect him to be neutralized by anyone this season (except for the occasional bad game, of course, which every player has). Hansbrough can step out and play on the perimeter this season to complement his inside game, which means he's a bad matchup for virtually every defender.

As of December 1, I think the team I'd most like to see UNC play in the tournament is Gonzaga. The Zags have their best team ever, excellent length, and can really put the ball in the basket. To beat UNC, you have to be able to score with them. If you struggle on offense, they will run away from you.

roywhite
12-01-2008, 11:24 PM
As of December 1, I think the team I'd most like to see UNC play in the tournament is Gonzaga. The Zags have their best team ever, excellent length, and can really put the ball in the basket. To beat UNC, you have to be able to score with them. If you struggle on offense, they will run away from you.

Love to see the Heytvelt/Hansbrough matchup again. If Heytvelt is truly past his drug/legal problems and playing well, he is capable of holding his own or better against TH.

umdukie
12-01-2008, 11:25 PM
That said, any serious prediction of UNC going undefeated for the season is a joke. I mean, the statistical odds of that happening must be less than 1%, even for a team this strong. But I agree -- who cares? I'm sure UNC fans would gladly take a 36-3 season as long as it ends with Hansbrough getting a championship.
I beg to differ. Even as a Duke fan, I don't see this UNC team winning a game by LESS THAN 10 POINTS, let alone LOSING A GAME. They're so much better than the rest of the competition that it's utterly unfair. They have all the ingredients: speed, talent, strength, experience, depth, coaching, etc. The only way this team loses a game is if UNC is playing a solid top 10 team like Duke without Hansbrough AND they don't play a good game AND Duke plays a great game.

I honestly thing the Heels can win the whole thing without Hanstravel or Ginyard. I know a lot of you will vocally disagree with me, but I call it how I see it. Let the hating begin.

P.S.: A large part of my reasoning on the matter has to do with Lawson. He is the best PG in the nation by quite a bit I think and I definitely feel like that's the most important position in basketball. UNC will go wherever Lawson takes them.

roywhite
12-01-2008, 11:33 PM
I beg to differ. Even as a Duke fan, I don't see this UNC team winning a game by LESS THAN 10 POINTS, let alone LOSING A GAME. They're so much better than the rest of the competition that it's utterly unfair. They have all the ingredients: speed, talent, strength, experience, depth, coaching, etc. The only way this team loses a game is if UNC is playing a solid top 10 team like Duke without Hansbrough AND they don't play a good game AND Duke plays a great game.


Yep, gotta go back to UNLV 1991 to find such a dominant team. Ooops, I guess that didn't quite work out. :)

Troublemaker
12-01-2008, 11:39 PM
I beg to differ. Even as a Duke fan, I don't see this UNC team winning a game by LESS THAN 10 POINTS, let alone LOSING A GAME. They're so much better than the rest of the competition that it's utterly unfair. They have all the ingredients: speed, talent, strength, experience, depth, coaching, etc. The only way this team loses a game is if UNC is playing a solid top 10 team like Duke without Hansbrough AND they don't play a good game AND Duke plays a great game.

I honestly thing the Heels can win the whole thing without Hanstravel or Ginyard. I know a lot of you will vocally disagree with me, but I call it how I see it. Let the hating begin.

P.S.: A large part of my reasoning on the matter has to do with Lawson. He is the best PG in the nation by quite a bit I think and I definitely feel like that's the most important position in basketball. UNC will go wherever Lawson takes them.

Haha, if you live near Durham, I'll gladly bet you dinner and drinks that a team will stay within 10 of UNC this season. Actually, I would bet any amount of money on that --you name it-- but we can keep it friendly.

Kedsy
12-02-2008, 10:21 AM
I beg to differ. Even as a Duke fan, I don't see this UNC team winning a game by LESS THAN 10 POINTS, let alone LOSING A GAME. They're so much better than the rest of the competition that it's utterly unfair. They have all the ingredients: speed, talent, strength, experience, depth, coaching, etc. The only way this team loses a game is if UNC is playing a solid top 10 team like Duke without Hansbrough AND they don't play a good game AND Duke plays a great game.

I honestly thing the Heels can win the whole thing without Hanstravel or Ginyard. I know a lot of you will vocally disagree with me, but I call it how I see it. Let the hating begin.

P.S.: A large part of my reasoning on the matter has to do with Lawson. He is the best PG in the nation by quite a bit I think and I definitely feel like that's the most important position in basketball. UNC will go wherever Lawson takes them.

This is just silly.

Last year, essentially the same UNC team lost 3 games (including one to unranked Maryland), won three overtime games, won three non-overtime games by two points or less, won two other games by 5 points or less, won six other games by 10 or less, and won by 12 or less against world-beaters BYU, UNCA, and Nicholls State. They might be better this year, but they're not soooooooooo much better that all of a sudden they're Lew Alcindor's UCLA. If you want to call it how you see it, you need to open your eyes.

P.S.: If Lawson is the "best point guard in the nation by quite a bit," how come he couldn't get a promise in the top 20 of last year's draft? Has he improved that much since June?

dukelifer
12-02-2008, 12:08 PM
I beg to differ. Even as a Duke fan, I don't see this UNC team winning a game by LESS THAN 10 POINTS, let alone LOSING A GAME. They're so much better than the rest of the competition that it's utterly unfair. They have all the ingredients: speed, talent, strength, experience, depth, coaching, etc. The only way this team loses a game is if UNC is playing a solid top 10 team like Duke without Hansbrough AND they don't play a good game AND Duke plays a great game.

I honestly thing the Heels can win the whole thing without Hanstravel or Ginyard. I know a lot of you will vocally disagree with me, but I call it how I see it. Let the hating begin.

P.S.: A large part of my reasoning on the matter has to do with Lawson. He is the best PG in the nation by quite a bit I think and I definitely feel like that's the most important position in basketball. UNC will go wherever Lawson takes them.

Right now there not enough data to see how good UNC will be and how they will play in a true road game against a solid opponent. Yes they beat ND on a neutral court - a team that had just played a very tough semi and with their best player playing with pneumonia after throwing up all day. They get a chance to play another ranked team this week who is without one of their best bigs. Right now, it looks like we may not know how good they are for a long while- probably until they play Wake at Wake- and I expect that will be a good game- with Wake looking to get a big time win. So let everyone build up UNC. The pressure will just go up and up.

BTW- Lawson is much improved- playing very solid basketball and not making mistakes. We will see if he can keep it up.

Diddy
12-02-2008, 12:40 PM
This is just silly.

Last year, essentially the same UNC team lost 3 games (including one to unranked Maryland), won three overtime games, won three non-overtime games by two points or less, won two other games by 5 points or less, won six other games by 10 or less, and won by 12 or less against world-beaters BYU, UNCA, and Nicholls State. They might be better this year, but they're not soooooooooo much better that all of a sudden they're Lew Alcindor's UCLA. If you want to call it how you see it, you need to open your eyes.

P.S.: If Lawson is the "best point guard in the nation by quite a bit," how come he couldn't get a promise in the top 20 of last year's draft? Has he improved that much since June?

I am sorry, but I really do not see this at all. Why is every one on this board saying that this UNC team is essentially the same as last year?

If that were true, then Duke is essentially the same team as last year. Only more so than UNC. Duke is more similiar to last year than UNC.

Duke lost 1 player, Demarcus. We added (essentially) 3 players in Plumlee, Pocuis, and Williams, given that Olek probably won't be a significant contributor this year. One of those replacements was a McDs AA. Further, given how little Nolan was playing at the end of last year, due to injury, he effectively replaces many of the minutes that Demarcus was playing.

UNC lost 2 players from last year. They replaced him with 3 McDonald's All-Americans in Drew, Davis, and Frasor all of whom are currentlly contributing as much or more than any of our new players.

UNC lost 2 players and added 3 who are playing as much or more than our new players.

Duke lost 1 player and added 3 players, 2 of whom aren't playing/contributing at a high level.

Which team more closely resembles last year's team?

Now, a lot of you will state that many of Duke's players improved, and some of them dramatically. True. Singler added muscle, Nolan looks better, and the bigs have improved, to name but a few improvements.

But, many of you seem to completely dismiss any likewise improvement by UNC players. Hans is really knocking down the J this year. Lawson does look like the best PG in America. How the heck does him failing to get a top 20 garuantee last year have any affect, at all, in Lawson being the best PG in America THIS year. It is called improvement. He did that this past summer. He is a better player than last year. That is not an opinion. It is a fact, and it is obvious to anyone who has ever seen even a single ball game.

Thompson has improved more than any player in the nation. His jump brings to mind JJ's jump from Soph to Jr. year. He looks great. Green has drastically improved both his 3 and midrange slashing game, along with better D and passing. That is but a few of UNC's improvements.

Yes, Duke improved from last year. So has UNC. So has virtually every returning player in the nation. That is what these players do in the summer. They work on their games.

To say this UNC team is the same as last year's UNC team boggles the mind.

Kedsy
12-02-2008, 12:58 PM
I am sorry, but I really do not see this at all. Why is every one on this board saying that this UNC team is essentially the same as last year?

The question (as presented by an earlier poster) is not whether UNC has improved, but whether they've improved soooo much compared to everybody else that they've gone from a really good team that got clobbered in the Final Four to a team that not only will go undefeated but will win every game by double figures. And the answer to that question has to be of course not.

Also, as I understand it, the biggest jump in a player's development normally (although obviously not always) occurs between his freshman and sophomore years. Thus I would expect Thompson to have improved greatly (although saying he's improved more than anybody in the country may be a stretch), as I would expect Singler and Nolan Smith to have improved greatly. The reason I said UNC is essentially the same team is their top 6 players are the same and all but Thompson are juniors or seniors (who certainly improve from year to year but not as much as younger players).

Last year UNC lost 3 games and could have easily lost half a dozen others. As someone else said, we won't be able to measure how much they have improved for some time, but to think they've improved so much more than the teams they play doesn't make sense to me.

Biscuit
12-02-2008, 02:23 PM
The question (as presented by an earlier poster) is not whether UNC has improved, but whether they've improved soooo much compared to everybody else that they've gone from a really good team that got clobbered in the Final Four to a team that not only will go undefeated but will win every game by double figures. And the answer to that question has to be of course not.

Also, as I understand it, the biggest jump in a player's development normally (although obviously not always) occurs between his freshman and sophomore years. Thus I would expect Thompson to have improved greatly (although saying he's improved more than anybody in the country may be a stretch), as I would expect Singler and Nolan Smith to have improved greatly. The reason I said UNC is essentially the same team is their top 6 players are the same and all but Thompson are juniors or seniors (who certainly improve from year to year but not as much as younger players).

Last year UNC lost 3 games and could have easily lost half a dozen others. As someone else said, we won't be able to measure how much they have improved for some time, but to think they've improved so much more than the teams they play doesn't make sense to me.

Thompson is a junior.

For the most part, I agree with what you've said here, and there's no reason to expect UNC to run the table, let alone do it with ease.

That said, you're missing a huge factor in your analysis of UNC's improvement over their team from last year. Sure, they lost three times in 2007-08 and could have lost a couple more games. I count four other games that were very tight (I'm not counting Davidson here, that final score was close but as I recall the result was never in doubt in the second half). But UNC played to three air-tight victories and a loss in their first four games without Ty Lawson. Take those out, and you've got a team with only two losses and only one other close call. And Lawson certainly wasn't 100% in the tournament, either.

Anyone who's watched UNC this year can tell you that Lawson is on a completely different level this year. When your point guard, the QB of your team, goes from merely above-average to a superstar, the rest of the team gets a huge lift. That's why UNC appears to have gone from being a very good team with a shot at a title to having the potential for once-a-decade type historical greatness.

Kedsy
12-02-2008, 02:45 PM
Thompson is a junior.

Sorry, my bad.


Anyone who's watched UNC this year can tell you that Lawson is on a completely different level this year. When your point guard, the QB of your team, goes from merely above-average to a superstar, the rest of the team gets a huge lift. That's why UNC appears to have gone from being a very good team with a shot at a title to having the potential for once-a-decade type historical greatness.

I've only seen them play half of one game, so I have no basis to agree or disagree with your assessment. I believe that Lawson is the player that will determine UNC's success or failure, and agree that if he's a first-team All America type of talent then UNC will be a lot better than they were last year. Although even then I don't think they'll go undefeated. Time will tell, I suppose.

RepoMan
12-02-2008, 02:48 PM
Thompson has improved more than any player in the nation.

You must watch a lot of college basketball.

Wander
12-02-2008, 03:21 PM
I am sorry, but I really do not see this at all. Why is every one on this board saying that this UNC team is essentially the same as last year?


Once again - UNC has the same point guard, the same shooting guard, the same small forward, the same power forward, the same center, the same 6th man, the same coach, and the same system. And none of those players were freshmen last year.

There are probably over 300 teams in college basketball who have had more significant changes to their teams than UNC.

Also, Curry (not Lawson) is the best point guard in the country.

Skitzle
12-02-2008, 03:29 PM
Once again - UNC has the same point guard, the same shooting guard, the same small forward, the same power forward, the same center, the same 6th man, the same coach, and the same system. And none of those players were freshmen last year.

There are probably over 300 teams in college basketball who have had more significant changes to their teams than UNC.

Also, Curry (not Lawson) is the best point guard in the country.

Look UNC is good. They're the team to beat this year. On PAPER they're the best team in the country. They're playing amazingly well right now. It's a long season.... I highly doubt they go undefeated. Everyone has a bad night.

If Elliot Williams can contribute as much (or more) than Smith did at the end of last year and if Plumlee can find some bearings in the post, Duke will be surprisingly comparable on paper. I find the latter harder to put stock in than the former

After that, its just who's shots bounce better.