ACC Roundup 11/26

[gw67]

I watched the first half of the UNC game last night and was impressed. The passing by the guards, outside shooting and board work were outstanding. Green played an excellent all around game as did Ellington. Thompson looks in better shape and Lawson wasn’t needed. I like their freshmen, Davis and Drew. Davis is a good rebounder and close-in shooter and Drew appears to be a good ballhandler and passer. Hansbrough was clearly rusty but he was typically aggressive going to the hoop and made some foul shots. Many decry the fouls but his aggressive play pays off in foul shots just as the aggressive play by the Devils gets them many more foul shots than the opposition.

Virginia was not expected to be a strong team but losing to Liberty was unexpected. I haven’t seen them play but apparently they are a poor defensive team and their best players may be freshmen.

Georgia Tech continued to win and Lawal is off to a terrific start and is one of the best big men in the ACC.

Clemson won as expected but Stitt continues to be inconsistent at the point. For the season, they average almost 5 more turnovers than assists. If this continues, they will need to shoot well, outrebound the opposition and play good defense to beat ACC teams.

N.C.State won their third game but really haven't played any worthy opponents so far. They play Davidson next week which will give an indication about this year’s team. So far, Costner and McCauley are playing like they did two years ago and Fergusion has given them some good play off the bench.

It is early in the season but several individual players have stood out. They include Lawal (GT), Vasquez (Md), Johnson (WF), Singler (D), Vassallo (VT), Teague (WF), Allen (VT), Landesberg (UVa), Douglas (FS) and Green (UNC).

gw67

[gw67]

For those who are interested, theACC.com has put up the team and individual stats for ACC teams and players. It appears that they don't yet include last night's games.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/confldrs.html

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Virginia's loss to Liberty was significant in that it was the first "bad" loss for an ACC team.

The league is 46-5 as of this (Wednesday) morning. The first four losses, while disappointing, were certainly understandable:

-- Virginia Tech losing to Xavier on a halfcourt shot at the buzzer. Considering Xavier is the A-10 favroite and beat Memphis the next day, a loss to the X-men is nothing to be ashamed of.
-- Boston College lost on the road at St. Louis, a mid-level A-10 team (actually picked one spot below Rhode Island in the league's preseason poll).
-- Miami lost to No. 2 UConn in the Virgin Islands
-- Virginia Tech lost to Seton Hall in the Virgin Islands

Of the previous four losses, the last one hurt the most. It's not that Seton Hall is a weak opponent, it's that they play in the much lauded Big East. It would have been nice to improve to 3-1 in the mythical ACC/Big East Challenge ... instead, the two leagues are tied 2-2.

Balanced against the one bad loss, the ACC does not yet have a "good" win -- although UNC should get one tonight against top 10 Notre Dame. I would certainly count a BC win over top 10 Purdue in the Garden as a good win ... but I don't expect that to happen.

I see some losses coming -- BC twice in New York (tonight and Friday); Maryland vs. Michigan State in Orlando on Thanksgiving Day, Virginia at Syracuse on Friday. None of those would be bad losses ...

The key games coming up involve Wake Forest in Anaheim. They open with Cal State Fullerton, then probably play St. Mary's, a pretty good mid-major, in the second round. They could get Arizona State, Baylor, Charlotte or Providence in the third round. If they are as good as I think they are, Wake should win that tourney. Also for Maryland, after they lose to Michigan State, they get Gonzaga or Oklahoma State in the second round -- Georgetown and Tennessee are in the other bracket, although the Terps are unlikely to play either of those two unless they upset Michigan State.

Florida State also gets a couple of good tests this weekend in Vegas. The 'Noles play Cincinnati Saturday and either Cal or UNLV Sunday.

After that, we have the ACC/Big Ten Challenge early next week. By the time that's over, we should have a pretty good idea of who is for real in this league (UNC and Duke for sure ... probably Wake and Miami) and who is not (Virginia for sure, maybe BC).

[gw67]

Olympic – Your summary of the next week for the ACC is on the mark. We shall see but the league may be split into five groups: (1) Duke, UNC; (2) Wake, Miami; (3) Clemson, Va Tech; (4) the rest less Virginia; (5) Virginia. Prior to the start of the season, I figured that the league would get six teams into the NCAAT. That may be optimistic based on the early play of Clemson and Tech.

A couple of thoughts re Maryland - According to a Post article a couple of days ago, the Spartans are an uptempo team this year. So the game tomorrow may not only be a loss but a lopsided one as well. I think that we will be able to measure Maryland by how well they do in the second and third games of the Old Spice Tourney and against Michigan in the ACC-Big Ten matchup. If they go 2-2 in these four games, they will be competitive this year. If they go 1-3, they will have a hard time finishing at .500 for the season, and if they go 0-4, they will be one of the bottom feeders in the conference along with Virginia.

gw67

[davekay1971]

Olympic – Your summary of the next week for the ACC is on the mark. We shall see but the league may be split into five groups: (1) Duke, UNC; (2) Wake, Miami; (3) Clemson, Va Tech; (4) the rest less Virginia; (5) Virginia. Prior to the start of the season, I figured that the league would get six teams into the NCAAT. That may be optimistic based on the early play of Clemson and Tech.

gw67

I'm cautiously optimistic about State, though I've only seen them play once. I'll be at the Davidson-NCSU game, so that should give some better insight as to whether Lowe has really corrected their problems from last year. Some of the indicators that State may be a .500 team in the ACC this year:

The PG play is steadier - only 4 turnovers last night against Winthrop, who is actually a decent team. Degand is injured again, though this should be a short term thing, and he's very solid when he's healthy. In his place, Gonzalez has clearly benefitted from this trial-by-fire year last season, and Julius Mays can supply some quality minutes for the Pack. Costner and McCauley seem much more comfortable this year. Ferguson has become a consistent producer off the bench. Fells appears ready to take a starring role.

All that being said, State still looks 2 years away to me. Their incoming recruiting class is already very good...and Favors and Wall were notably courtside for the State-HPU game last weekend. If Lowe somehow manages to land those two, State will have the top recruiting class in the nation. Are you ready for the Big 4 to be the Big 4 again?

[sandinmyshoes]

I watched the UNC game. I have to admit they played great. But Oregon couldn't buy a basket from the outside the in the first half. Even on open looks they missed and missed. While even if they had hit half of those it might not have led to them winning, it would have made a much more interesting game. And UNC's defense wouldn't have looked quite so effective.

[gw67]

The ACC site (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/confldrs.html) updated their stats to include yesterday’s games. It is very early but some individual stats jumped out at me:
• There are five players averaging a double-double and three more who are very close. Lawal and Allen play for teams that need both their scoring as well as their rebounding so they may be able to keep up this pace and be joined by Hansbrough at a later date.
• Johnson (WF), Vasquez (Md) and Teague (WF) are among the league leaders in several categories.
• There are a dozen categories. The Devils only show up in the scoring and rebounding average (Singler), free throw shooting (Smith and Scheyer), and steals (Scheyer). IMO, this is a direct result of the team’s balanced play. There are four good players who garner the most minutes and they tend to share the scoring, rebounding and playmaking. This makes for an outstanding team but I doubt that any will be near the top of the individual statistical categories during the season.
• Rice and McClinton are down the list of scorers but they are gunners and they should move up the scoring chart over time.
• The Aminu brothers (Wake and GT) are among the rebounding and field goal shooting leaders.

gw67

[pfrduke]

The ACC site (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/confldrs.html) updated their stats to include yesterday’s games. It is very early but some individual stats jumped out at me:
• There are five players averaging a double-double and three more who are very close. Lawal and Allen play for teams that need both their scoring as well as their rebounding so they may be able to keep up this pace and be joined by Hansbrough at a later date.
• Johnson (WF), Vasquez (Md) and Teague (WF) are among the league leaders in several categories.
• There are a dozen categories. The Devils only show up in the scoring and rebounding average (Singler), free throw shooting (Smith and Scheyer), and steals (Scheyer). IMO, this is a direct result of the team’s balanced play. There are four good players who garner the most minutes and they tend to share the scoring, rebounding and playmaking. This makes for an outstanding team but I doubt that any will be near the top of the individual statistical categories during the season.
• Rice and McClinton are down the list of scorers but they are gunners and they should move up the scoring chart over time.
• The Aminu brothers (Wake and GT) are among the rebounding and field goal shooting leaders.

gw67

Johnson and Teague are skewed a little bit by that 120-point performance against UNCW. Getting to play in a 97-possession game helps anybody's per game averages.

Vazquez will stay up among the individual leaders, and Rice and McClinton will find their way there, mostly because each player will be extremely high usage - possibly even approaching 30% of the team's possessions on the season.

Following up on an earlier post, I don't see anything that VT has done to earn them a spot in the third tier yet. Part of their problem will be depth - behind Vassallo, Allen, and Delaney, there just aren't any solid contributors. Those three are going to be asked to score 50-60 a night, and even that might not be enough.

IMO, there are two groups of teams below Clemson - those who (so far) look like they may be able to contend for an NCAA bid, and those who (so far) don't. The ones on the good side of that list include Virginia Tech, Maryland, NCSU, and Georgia Tech (in no particular order). The ones on the bad side include FSU, BC, and UVA. One or two of the teams in the first four needs to get some marquee wins and find a way to go 8-8 in conference play for a bid.