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Dukiedevil
11-22-2008, 01:11 AM
At the beginning of this season, Hansbrough was 601 points behind JJ for the career ACC scoring record. I had hoped with Tyler missing a few games that this may prove a more ominous task. Unfortunately it still shouldn't be that difficult for him. UNC has 27 regular season games left after he scored 13 tonight. If you assume that the Heels get 6 postseason games between the NCAAs and the ACC tourney, he only has to average 17.8 per game this season. Maybe Roy will work him back in slowly because of his injury, but the number seems to be within reach for him... I guess we will have to wait and see

MarkD83
11-22-2008, 06:02 AM
For UNC to do well this year they will have to use their depth (which is not as deep as it once was) and keep everyone happy. That means that 17.8 ppg is not as easy as one may think.

davekay1971
11-22-2008, 07:54 AM
601 points?

Let's see, assuming 30 games total, that's just about 20 free throws per game for him. He only got 9 last night, but that was in limited minutes playing outside the ACC. Once he gets up to speed and playing at home, he'll get to the line more. Yep, it's a given: he'll make more than 601 points on free throws alone :D

CDu
11-22-2008, 09:13 AM
601 points?

Let's see, assuming 30 games total, that's just about 20 free throws per game for him. He only got 9 last night, but that was in limited minutes playing outside the ACC. Once he gets up to speed and playing at home, he'll get to the line more. Yep, it's a given: he'll make more than 601 points on free throws alone :D

ESPN has him down for 13 points last night, so that should put him at 588 left to go. The only way he doesn't break it is if his leg injury resurfaces and causes him to miss substantial time. Realistically, he's got at least 28 games left (26 regular season, one ACC, one NCAA). Actually, I assume that there are multiple games guaranteed in the Maui Invitational, so it's probably a minimum of 30 games. And realistically, it's probably going to be 35+ games. Averaging 17 points per game should do it. The guy has never averaged less than 18.4 points per game in a season, so to expect him to drop more than five points per game from last year is probably unreasonable.

zingit
11-22-2008, 12:38 PM
Thanks for doing the math. I was actually wondering about how close he was to the record the other night.

dukelifer
12-03-2008, 11:24 AM
ESPN has him down for 13 points last night, so that should put him at 588 left to go. The only way he doesn't break it is if his leg injury resurfaces and causes him to miss substantial time. Realistically, he's got at least 28 games left (26 regular season, one ACC, one NCAA). Actually, I assume that there are multiple games guaranteed in the Maui Invitational, so it's probably a minimum of 30 games. And realistically, it's probably going to be 35+ games. Averaging 17 points per game should do it. The guy has never averaged less than 18.4 points per game in a season, so to expect him to drop more than five points per game from last year is probably unreasonable.
This is turning into an interesting chase for the record. There is some talk that Hansbrough may not play tonight which means his shin is bothering him after games - which is not unexpected. Looking that their upcoming schedule- UNC could probably play their JV team and win most of the games. They have 1-4 Oral Roberts, 4-1 Evansville, 4-2 Rutgers at home and 2-4 Valpo and 3-3 Nevada on the road. I would expect Hansbrough would play few if any minutes in those games to keep him fresh for the ACC. Thus it is possible that he may be out of 9 or 10 of the first 13 games- and given the likely routs in some of the home ACC games- he may play sparingly there was well. So assuming they play the full docket of 39 games he could only play in 29- perhaps 25 which means he will need to average between 20 and 24 ppg to get the record. He is in that range now- but it will be interesting to watch.

hurleyfor3
12-03-2008, 12:11 PM
The record is gone. Forget about it.

Edouble
12-03-2008, 12:20 PM
The record is gone. Forget about it.

There's a very good chance that it's gone, but Hans has to play in the games to score the points. Dukelifer makes a really good point that each game that Hans misses, the scoring average he needs to break the record slowly rises. If he doesn't play tonight, in one of UNC's marquee early games, that's a big deal.

Travi_K
12-03-2008, 12:47 PM
Well besides the fact that Hans is playing extremely well when he does play, it can not be an encouraging sign that this injury is already showing signs of lingering. Also their is the tweaked ankle. Their were a small population on the Carolina boards that thought he should sit out til after Christmas. If this continues that may not have been such a bad idea. Unfortunately, this team is scary good even without the all american.

hurleyfor3
12-03-2008, 12:54 PM
There's a very good chance that it's gone, but Hans has to play in the games to score the points. Dukelifer makes a really good point that each game that Hans misses, the scoring average he needs to break the record slowly rises. If he doesn't play tonight, in one of UNC's marquee early games, that's a big deal.

My point is to price it in now and don't worry about extenuating circumstances such as injuries or NCAA Tournament flameouts. Then when he doesn't get it, it's a bonus.

Hansjesus can have it. It's nowhere near as symbolic to me as Hurley's assist record is.

dukelifer
12-03-2008, 03:39 PM
The record is gone. Forget about it.

If he stays out until ACC season- it could be close.

JDev
12-03-2008, 03:56 PM
This is turning into an interesting chase for the record. There is some talk that Hansbrough may not play tonight which means his shin is bothering him after games

I saw that as well, but truthfully I'm not buying it. I think it might be ESPN trying to create increased suspense and an additional story line for a game that doesn't look as interesting as it once did. MSU seems to be overrated and they will be without Sutton (spelling?). I think Hansbrough definitely plays.

dukelifer
12-03-2008, 05:37 PM
I saw that as well, but truthfully I'm not buying it. I think it might be ESPN trying to create increased suspense and an additional story line for a game that doesn't look as interesting as it once did. MSU seems to be overrated and they will be without Sutton (spelling?). I think Hansbrough definitely plays.

I think he may play tonight- but none of those other upcoming games are going to be within 50 and not worth aggravating the injury. This could be his last game for a while.

CDu
12-03-2008, 05:50 PM
If he stays out until ACC season- it could be close.

If he stays out until ACC season, he'd have only 19 more guaranteed games. He'd likely play at least two ACC tourney games and three NCAA games. In that scenario, he'd have 24 games to score 538 points. He'd have to score 22.4 points per game to break the record. So if he sits out for the next month and UNC loses in the ACC semis and the sweet 16, he'd have to basically repeat last year's scoring numbers.

I'd say that only 24 games played would be about the best case scenario (barring a subsequent injury of course) for Redick to keep the record, and even then I would consider it likely for Redick to keep the record. And that's probably assuming nearly the worst case for UNC's tourney chances. It's possible, but I'm definitely not holding my breath. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hansbrough taking the mark, even if he sits out the next month until ACC play (which I doubt will happen).

Kim*
12-04-2008, 09:39 AM
Or, ya know, he could score 25 points against MSU.