Who has fallen hardest?

[SupaDave]

I'm just wondering, b/c we concentrate on our program so much, just what basketball program has fallen hardest from it's perceived 'status'.

There are a lot of them out there too. While we worry about the Sweet 16, there are programs like UNLV, NC State, Syracuse, Indiana, Kentucky, Arizona, USC, and even some less heraled schools like Temple and Marquette that just hope to get to the big dance and some are even taking chances with talent.

So who's hurting the worst?

[dukebluelemur]

Can we add Maryland to the list? Not so much because they are a historical great, but because their current misery makes me smile...

[KenTankerous]

As a Kentucky fan, I'd have to say last years loss at Rupp to Gardner-Webb was the low point of my fandom.

But overall, I'd say Indiana is the hardest hit right now.

[johnb]

Here are the NC teams, alphabetically, courtesy of wikipedia. I asterisked those which seem to no longer be a top 30 program.

Arizona 1 1997
Arkansas 1 1994
**California 1 1959
Cincinnati 2 1961, 1962
**CCNY 1 1950
**Connecticut 2 1999, 2004
Duke 3 1991, 1992, 2001
Florida 2 2006, 2007
Georgetown 1 1984
**Holy Cross 1 1947
**Indiana 5 1940, 1953, 1976, 1981, 1987
Kansas 3 1952, 1988, 2008
Kentucky 7 1948, 1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998
**La Salle 1 1954
Louisville 2 1980, 1986
**Loyola (Chicago) 1 1963
**Marquette 1 1977
Maryland 1 2002
**Michigan 1 1989
Michigan State 2 1979, 2000
North Carolina 4 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005
**North Carolina State 2 1974, 1983
Ohio State 1 1960
**Oklahoma State 2 1945, 1946
**Oregon 1 1939
**San Francisco 2 1955, 1956
**Stanford 1 1942
Syracuse 1 2003
UCLA 11 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1995
**UNLV 1 1990
**UTEP (Texas Western) 1 1966
**Utah 1 1944
**Villanova 1 1985
**Wisconsin 1 1941
**Wyoming 1 1943

To that group, I'd add St. John's, which had been ahead of Duke in total wins until fairly recently. And I added UConn because I don't like them.

[should_be_working]

Michigan has to be one of the biggest disappointments. It went from the fab 5 to not even making the tournament.

[sagegrouse]

At what point has an "elite" program fallen so far it is "no longer an elite program?" And at what point is it an "elite program fallen on hard times?"

I might argue that St. Johns and NC State are no longer elite, while certainly Indiana and maybe Maryland are in the latter category. Michigan may be somewhere in the middle. And what about Georgia Tech, which was in the national finals four years ago, and was a major power throughout the 80s and early 90s?

And there are a whole lot of programs (Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Wake Forest) that are not quite "elite" but may soon be.

sagegrouse

[BlueintheFace]

Easy question right now...

Indiana, from 5 national championships and consistent spot in tourney every year to ONE returning basketball player from last year and multiple ethics issues.

[wilson]

Easy question right now...

Indiana, from 5 national championships and consistent spot in tourney every year to ONE returning basketball player from last year and multiple ethics issues.

Yes, but Indiana is a clear illustration of the divide between intermediate lean times and the kind of sustained decline that demonstrates that a program has truly "fallen hard." Indiana will be putrid this year. In fact, I don't think they'll win double-digit games. That's a bad year, indeed, with probably a couple more rough campaigns (though not quite this rough) before bouncing back to NCAA appearances. They really weren't all that close to challenging for titles before this crash; that much I'll admit (I view their '02 title game appearance more as a lucky run than the culmination of a steady period of ascendancy). But Tom Crean is a very good coach, and there are literally millions of people who love Indiana. Most importantly, there will be plenty of kids (at least in the long run) drawn to the program's regional significance and national tradition.

[RainingThrees]

Can we add Maryland to the list? Not so much because they are a historical great, but because their current misery makes me smile...

I second this. Michigan has fallen farthest imo.

[jimsumner]

Indiana is going to be boo-hiss-awful this year; single-digit-wins awful.

But I suspect Cream will have this program nationally competitive in three years or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens at Arizona. Not a lot of tradition before Lute.

[mapei]

I have to vote for St. John's. They have fallen very, very far. The other nominees belong in the conversation, though.

In the ACC, I'd have to say NC State.

[weezie]

I'm looking forward to the 'holes falling right on the top of their flat heads.

[Faustus]

I'd tend to agree with Jim above. Arizona will be interesting to see and may belong on the Death Watch list before long. Before Lute arrived it was nowhere in the basketball picture except for maybe a couple of years with Fred Snowden, but even that was likely a dubious blip due to some JC's. Of course it wasn't in the Pac10 then either. But essentially it has been Lute Olsen and not Arizona out there and it remains to be seen if the program can outlast its single progenitor. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know how much of a talent base there is in AZ although it has to be growing. So I don't know how many local kids like Sean Elliot there frequently are, or if Ariz. State now with the ever-flamboyant Herb Sendeck will start mining the area more effectively. Lute was also fortunate in that for many of his successful years UCLA was not thriving. Arizona may not have as much success getting the southern Cal cream in the future, although there's likely plenty of that to go around. But Cal, USC and I hope Johnny D at Stanford have just as much if not better chances there now as well. Lute took the program from the gutter, but his successor(s) may not have an easy time in maintaining even a thriving level, much less national powerhouse.

And Jim is certainly correct that IU will be back. Their fans, their state, will demand it. Doesn't matter in this case that Notre Dame and Purdue are doing well now; Indiana will always have to be good, or they'll keep hiring new coaches until they are. It's that simple.

Georgetown has been an interesting story, for it seemed sure to be one of the One Coach Wonder teams that were a super-nova for the life of their one great coach and then were burning out into a cold lump of coal until, by incredible good fortune, their one good coach managed to have a son in the wings who turned out to be quite good as well. (Would have been interesting if John Wooden had begotten a coaching son - would they have been spared the Cunningham and Walt Hazzard years?) We'll have to see if JT III can scale the heights of his dad's success, but he's at least resurrected a fast falling program. Syracuse has enough tradition that it should survive a Boeheim retirement before much longer. But then I thought St. John's would, too. Arkansas may also turn out to be One Of Those Things that never returns to sustained prominence. Success over at Memphis makes it that much harder.

[wilson]

I'd tend to agree with Jim above. Arizona will be interesting to see and may belong on the Death Watch list before long. Before Lute arrived it was nowhere in the basketball picture except for maybe a couple of years with Fred Snowden, but even that was likely a dubious blip due to some JC's. Of course it wasn't in the Pac10 then either. But essentially it has been Lute Olsen and not Arizona out there and it remains to be seen if the program can outlast its single progenitor. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know how much of a talent base there is in AZ although it has to be growing. So I don't know how many local kids like Sean Elliot there frequently are, or if Ariz. State now with the ever-flamboyant Herb Sendeck will start mining the area more effectively. Lute was also fortunate in that for many of his successful years UCLA was not thriving. Arizona may not have as much success getting the southern Cal cream in the future, although there's likely plenty of that to go around. But Cal, USC and I hope Johnny D at Stanford have just as much if not better chances there now as well. Lute took the program from the gutter, but his successor(s) may not have an easy time in maintaining even a thriving level, much less national powerhouse.

And Jim is certainly correct that IU will be back. Their fans, their state, will demand it. Doesn't matter in this case that Notre Dame and Purdue are doing well now; Indiana will always have to be good, or they'll keep hiring new coaches until they are. It's that simple.

Georgetown has been an interesting story, for it seemed sure to be one of the One Coach Wonder teams that were a super-nova for the life of their one great coach and then were burning out into a cold lump of coal until, by incredible good fortune, their one good coach managed to have a son in the wings who turned out to be quite good as well. (Would have been interesting if John Wooden had begotten a coaching son - would they have been spared the Cunningham and Walt Hazzard years?) We'll have to see if JT III can scale the heights of his dad's success, but he's at least resurrected a fast falling program. Syracuse has enough tradition that it should survive a Boeheim retirement before much longer. But then I thought St. John's would, too. Arkansas may also turn out to be One Of Those Things that never returns to sustained prominence. Success over at Memphis makes it that much harder.

You can put UNLV among the One-Coach Wonders. The crookedness of that One Coach of theirs has further complicated the matter for subsequent coaches.

[Billy Dat]

Considering the way the "Duke has fallen" stories have been positioned, I think it is most apt to compare storied programs where the same coach is in tact but that team has fallen on leaner times.

If that's the criteria, I put Syracuse and Maryland at the top of the list.

K is obviously held to a higher standard. Calhoun didn't get nearly the guff for his down year post George Mason that K has gotten for merely saying farewell after the first weekend.

[hurleyfor3]

And there are a whole lot of programs (Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Wake Forest) that are not quite "elite" but may soon be.

Wake is more like "program no one outside of Forsyth County will ever confuse with being elite, but their alumni perpetually think this will be the year."

Anyway, the most apt comparison to contemporary Duke might be, ironically, Denny Crum's post-1986 Louisville years.

[BD80]

... Michigan has fallen farthest imo.

Wait. Are we talking basketball or football?

Heh, heh, heh.

[jimsumner]

Agree that Vegas was a one-coach wonder. But their time on the national stage barely encompassed a decade and a half, so I wouldn't put them up with schools like IU, St. John's, and Michigan.

Has anyone mentioned Temple?

[houstondukie]

Here are the NC teams, alphabetically, courtesy of wikipedia. I asterisked those which seem to no longer be a top 30 program.

Arizona 1 1997
Arkansas 1 1994
**California 1 1959
Cincinnati 2 1961, 1962
**CCNY 1 1950
**Connecticut 2 1999, 2004
Duke 3 1991, 1992, 2001
Florida 2 2006, 2007
Georgetown 1 1984
**Holy Cross 1 1947
**Indiana 5 1940, 1953, 1976, 1981, 1987
Kansas 3 1952, 1988, 2008
Kentucky 7 1948, 1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998
**La Salle 1 1954
Louisville 2 1980, 1986
**Loyola (Chicago) 1 1963
**Marquette 1 1977
Maryland 1 2002
**Michigan 1 1989
Michigan State 2 1979, 2000
North Carolina 4 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005
**North Carolina State 2 1974, 1983
Ohio State 1 1960
**Oklahoma State 2 1945, 1946
**Oregon 1 1939
**San Francisco 2 1955, 1956
**Stanford 1 1942
Syracuse 1 2003
UCLA 11 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1995
**UNLV 1 1990
**UTEP (Texas Western) 1 1966
**Utah 1 1944
**Villanova 1 1985
**Wisconsin 1 1941
**Wyoming 1 1943

To that group, I'd add St. John's, which had been ahead of Duke in total wins until fairly recently. And I added UConn because I don't like them.

UCONN and Wisconsin are asterixed? Cincinnati and Syracuse are not asterixed?

I hate UCONN more than any team other than UNC, but how do you consider a team that has won 2 national championships in the last 10 years and is a top 3 team this year "no longer to be a top 30 program"?!?!?

Wisconsin competes every year for the Big Ten and is consistently a top 25 team.

Please tell me you made a typo with your asterisks; otherwise, I think you have no idea what you're talking about.

[Wander]

So.... anyone want to edit their answer?

[BlueintheFace]

So.... anyone want to edit their answer?

billie G must have been reading the thread and taken it as a personal challenge...

[BigTedder]

VMI just put 111 on Kentucky.....

My vote goes to Kentucky.

[mapei]

A couple of people have mentioned UMCP. I don't think they count, really, at least not post-Lefty. Gary had a great 5-6-year run (arguably only 3-4 years) but on the whole they have pretty consistently been a good but not great program capable of top-20 years but not top-10 without Dixon and Baxter. I think they remain pretty close to where they have traditionally been. Unfortunately, some years the only good team they could beat was Duke.

[Lord Ash]

Uhhhhh... Kentucky.

[billybreen]

VMI baby. Enjoy your stay in Lexington, Mr. Patterson.

[shadowfax336]

dang, everybody else beat me to it...
Wildcats just upped the ante

I mean 2 years in a row?

[shadowfax336]

VMI baby. Enjoy your stay in Lexington, Mr. Patterson.

He only got 4 shots from the field in this game. Thats not quite what Gillespie promised him when he was recruiting him was it? How does UK shoot over 50% from the field and lose?

[billybreen]

He only got 4 shots from the field in this game. Thats not quite what Gillespie promised him when he was recruiting him was it? How does UK shoot over 50% from the field and lose?

Evidently, by playing no D. But, yeah, that's quite a trick.

[mapei]

KY is so irrelevant that nobody even thinks of them or cares about them anymore. It's sad, really.

[shadowfax336]

VMI is a lot of fun though. According to ESPN, their gameplan going into the game was to attempt 50 3s. They ended up only putting up 31 so I guess they still have room for improvement:)

[Faustus]

VMI plays at UVa Sunday afternoon. This could be really fun. Leitao's head might explode if his kids don't get out and cover the perimeter shooters.

[sagegrouse]

A couple of people have mentioned UMCP. I don't think they count, really, at least not post-Lefty. Gary had a great 5-6-year run (arguably only 3-4 years) but on the whole they have pretty consistently been a good but not great program capable of top-20 years but not top-10 without Dixon and Baxter. I think they remain pretty close to where they have traditionally been. Unfortunately, some years the only good team they could beat was Duke.

I think the Terps qualify as an elite program, but the clock may be ticking on both the elite status and on Gary Williams. As an elite program, in the last ten years, the Terps have one ACC championship, two Final Fours, and one NCAA championship. Aside from the Devils and the Tarheels, no one else in the ACC comes close. Moreover, ESPN or CBS (or whoever) insists that UMd and Duke play twice each year.

OTOH I read that the Terps just lost a recruit to my graduate alma mater, the Rice Owls. (One conference champioship in the last 40-50 years.) It is a real question of where the Terps are headed over the next few years.

sagegrouse

[Faison1]

KY is so irrelevant that nobody even thinks of them or cares about them anymore. It's sad, really.

I'm not sure irrelevant is the right choice of words. Kentucky will always be relevant, they just might not be good. If they were irrelevant, they would not land any good recruits or take up space in the sports page (or on our board for that matter). But they always seem to be on everyone's mind.

It's a shame Patterson did not come to Duke, but he seems to be a good kid, so I wish him the best of luck. My guess is they will recover, considering how weak the SEC is.....

In any case, my vote for falling farthest is a toss up between Maryland Kentucky, with the best chance for rebound and success with Kentucky.....Maryland seems so hopeless right now, with no chance of landing good recruits....could Gary be done soon? (I am a fan of his)

[Carlos]

A slight Duke related tie to VMI here -

The Keydets' leading scorer in their win over Kentucky was Travis Holmes who tallied 30 points. They also got 16 points from his twin brother Chavis. The two are graduates of Christ School in Arden, NC - the same school the Plumlee brothers attend(ed).

[Billy Dat]

New ESPN.com article on a similar subject, using the Final Four as the benchmark:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney08/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=3293539

[Bluedog]

New ESPN.com article on a similar subject, using the Final Four as the benchmark:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney08/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=3293539

Interesting article, but it's not really new. Although, not much has changed since it was last updated (April 2, 2008) so it's still relevant.

[ugadevil]

VMI baby. Enjoy your stay in Lexington, Mr. Patterson.

Maybe Patrick should pack up his things and play basketball for that school in Lexington, Virginia.

[Jim3k]

It will be interesting to see what happens at Arizona. Not a lot of tradition before Lute.

Surely, Jim, you have not forgotten Fred Snowden (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Snowden)'s years there. (This wiki article seems to be mostly a positive obit. Still, he was a pioneer.)

I admit, however, that Snowden didn't take them too high, but his teams were fun to watch. So you are probably being fair to say 'not a lot of tradition.' Some of his good players included Eric Money, Bob Elliott, Gilbert Myles and Al Fleming.

[dukemomLA]

I'd have to go with Kentucky (ummmm, makes me happy), Michigan, Indiana, Syracuse, and...then maybe St. John's & Temple. The ACC is pretty strong, for the most part, although as always they don't get the kudos they deserve.

Most of the other conferences are top heavy and low cookies. But....we'll see. The Big East does a great job of promoting themselves. Perhaps the ACC can take a lesson from them.

[mgtr]

How about Loyola Marymount? They were at one time all the rage, the flavor of the day, the ultimate in run and gun, and now -- nothing.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

How about Arkansas? Not much from them since '94 :mad: and '95. Though it looks like Pelphrey may have them back on track a bit.

[UrinalCake]

I've never understood why Connecticut doesn't get the same hatred from fans that Duke does. You could argue that they have been every bit as successful as Duke in the last fifteen years, perhaps even more so. I'm pretty sure they attempt more free throws than their opponents make (which is what the haters always say about us). Jim Calhoun did an American Express commercial too. And their players have had a ton of trouble with the law. Not saying people SHOULD hate them, but plenty of reasons exist.

And when they didn't even make the tournament two years ago, no one seemed to care, everyone was too busy ripping on Duke for losing in the first round.

[mgtr]

I'm pretty sure they attempt more free throws than their opponents make (which is what the haters always say about us).

Well, you almost got it right -- you need to interchange two words.