UNC random thoughts

[whereinthehellami]

With the off-season upon us I thought we would look at each ACC team and throw out some random thoughts about each school. I thought we would start at the top of the ACC and go from there. Keep it flame free and maybe even get some of the fans from the other schools to weigh in. It doesn't have to be all Bball related but that should be focus.

So, lets see how this works for UNC;


I didn't think that UNC was as dominate this past year as they could have been, although Hansborough was.



I think they will be heck of a team next year if they all come back and if they can get some chemistry issues out of the way.



I think Deon Thompson scares me the most of their unknown players.



I'm not sold on Frasor or Ellington ever tearing up the ACC.



Butch Davis might have awoken the sleeping giant that is their football team, though I don't think this coming year will reflect that (too many holes).



The list of recruits for 2008 that the Tar Heels are leading for is downright scary. I think 2008 looks alot deeper at the elite level than this past year.


Here is a link for Virginia (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1331).

[CMS2478]

With the off-season upon us I thought we would look at each ACC team and throw out some random thoughts about each school. I thought we would start at the top of the ACC and go from there. Keep it flame free and maybe even get some of the fans from the other schools to weigh in. It doesn't have to be all Bball related but that should be focus.

So, lets see how this works for UNC;


I didn't think that UNC was as dominate this past year as they could have been, although Hansborough was.



I think they will be heck of a team next year if they all come back and if they can get some chemistry issues out of the way.



I think Deon Thompson scares me the most of their unknown players.



I'm not sold on Frasor or Ellington ever tearing up the ACC.



Butch Davis might have awoken the sleeping giant that is their football team, though I don't think this coming year will reflect that (too many holes).



The list of recruits for 2008 that the Tar Heels are leading for is downright scary. I think 2008 looks alot deeper at the elite level than this past year.


I agree with everything you said except the thing about Ellington, I think that guy is going to be good.

[hurleyfor3]

Go to hell Carolina.

Is that random enough for you?

[Patrick Yates]

I agree re Ellington. He will be a solid SG, good to very good by his Sr year, but he will never be dominant. He is a better natural athlete than JJ, but without JJ's reddickulous range (also lacking JJs elite level of hustle and drive). While more athletic, he is still a few noticable steps below an elite level athlete, meaning that an elite athlete, like GH, DN, or even MP could effectively shut him down. I took your "tear it up" to mean dominance, not they wouldn't be good.

I am on board with Frasor. He is a footslow PG on a team whose makeup demands speed. He is a liabilty on D, and not a good primary guard. He is an undersized SG, but with a worse handle than GP.

You are right regarding Thompson, and even Stephenson, IMHO. By their Jr years they could surpass TH, even if TH were to stay in school. I forsee that this could influence TH to go out the door. Thompson and Stephenson play a very similiar game to TH, only with more mass, increased athleticism, and greater potential. If they hit the weight room over the summer, they will start stealling minutes from TH.

With regards to their recruits, I think Roe and Larry Drew are locks, possibly with Seymardo Samuels and a random SG thrown in. This does not scare me. Roe is very good, but he and LD are talking like one-and dones. Even with these recruits, UNC will be weak that year.

If TH goes pro (BW is gonzo) Thompson and Stephenson will have the post to themselves. By the end of the year, one or the other could be truly dominant, necessitating a jump to the pros, because the only limititation to his game will be height, and staying in school won't improve that (like a poor man's elton brand). Sadly, for UNC, this defection might not manifest until late in the year, when an effective replacement will be hard to find. So, UNC could be light in the post, even with some solid recruiting. Also, Roy will play his Sr's so an infusion of talent on the wings could still be forced to sit behind some established players.

Basically, UNC sold its soul to win it all this year, only they forgot to win it all. Defections could decimate them over the next two years. This year was spectacular because it was the combination of 2 great recruiting years back to back. This years class is non-existant (Graves will never be a significant contributor, I think Roy was playing nice to a state full of high school coaches that felt UNC was ignoring the local talent). So a great class next year will probably come on the heels of a very weak class (this year), and defections (next year, one way or the other). The class may be talented, but the true strength of UNC was not its talent, but rather its depth. 1-6, there were 3-5 teams that could at least match UNC this year, where they killed you was 6-12, all of whom could play. They simply won through attrition, wearing you down, then running you into the ground. Even with one great class two years from now, it will be a shallow team, relative to this year's team.

That is not to say that UNC does not, nor will not, have the talent to win the NC over the next 3 years. I am just saying that they will not be nearly as dominant as they were (should have been anyway) this year.

Patrick Yates

[whereinthehellami]

Go to hell Carolina.

Is that random enough for you?

Yeah thats random enough, for a Friday anyway.

I hope I don't regret typing that about Ellington and I should have prefaced that by saying that I don't expect him to be a non-factor either. He just has something about him that says honorable mention team ACC to me, which is by no means bad or anything. I just thought that he might have had more of an impact this year for the Heels and I'm not sure if he will be able to stand out enough in the future for the Heels either.

I like Henderson's game more than Ellingtons. I remember seeing on IC (I know, why?) where they were saying the opposite about Hendo and calling him out. He really turned it on late where as Wayne kind of lost it at the end of the season. I like how Hendo attacks the middle of the court.

[adam]

I like how Hendo attacks the middle of the court.

According to Carolina fans, he also attacks noses. :)


GO DUKE!!!

[whereinthehellami]

Basically, UNC sold its soul to win it all this year, only they forgot to win it all. Defections could decimate them over the next two years. This year was spectacular because it was the combination of 2 great recruiting years back to back. This years class is non-existant (Graves will never be a significant contributor, I think Roy was playing nice to a state full of high school coaches that felt UNC was ignoring the local talent). So a great class next year will probably come on the heels of a very weak class (this year), and defections (next year, one way or the other). The class may be talented, but the true strength of UNC was not its talent, but rather its depth. 1-6, there were 3-5 teams that could at least match UNC this year, where they killed you was 6-12, all of whom could play. They simply won through attrition, wearing you down, then running you into the ground. Even with one great class two years from now, it will be a shallow team, relative to this year's team.

That is not to say that UNC does not, nor will not, have the talent to win the NC over the next 3 years. I am just saying that they will not be nearly as dominant as they were (should have been anyway) this year.

Patrick Yates

I agree with alot of those sentiments. UNC's parts seemed greater than their whole in alot of the games that I saw. Wright is talented but loosing him won't hurt that much. Hansborough is the heart of the team and if he were to leave the Heels could slip some in the ACC. But i don't think he is going anywhere next year, except back to the foul line.

I think Lawson is the wild card. He is tremendously talented with alot of potential (can he develop a better shot,defense). But he might be at the core of any chemistry problems they had this year. Couple that with his rumored run-ins with Roy and some academic questions and I don't see why he would stay for next year, though the general feeling over at IC is that he is staying. With him their transition game sails along and he can be an unstoppable pentrator when motivated. Without Lawson, UNC becomes a team that will be forced to play a much more half-court oriented game which makes them much more manageable. So I think alot of UNC's future is in Lawson's hands right now. Glad I'm on this side of the triangle.

[Classof06]

With regards to their recruits, I think Roe and Larry Drew are locks, possibly with Seymardo Samuels and a random SG thrown in. This does not scare me. Roe is very good, but he and LD are talking like one-and dones. Even with these recruits, UNC will be weak that year.

Basically, UNC sold its soul to win it all this year, only they forgot to win it all. Defections could decimate them over the next two years. This year was spectacular because it was the combination of 2 great recruiting years back to back. This years class is non-existant (Graves will never be a significant contributor, I think Roy was playing nice to a state full of high school coaches that felt UNC was ignoring the local talent). So a great class next year will probably come on the heels of a very weak class (this year), and defections (next year, one way or the other). The class may be talented, but the true strength of UNC was not its talent, but rather its depth. 1-6, there were 3-5 teams that could at least match UNC this year, where they killed you was 6-12, all of whom could play. They simply won through attrition, wearing you down, then running you into the ground. Even with one great class two years from now, it will be a shallow team, relative to this year's team.

That is not to say that UNC does not, nor will not, have the talent to win the NC over the next 3 years. I am just saying that they will not be nearly as dominant as they were (should have been anyway) this year.

Patrick Yates


As someone from the Cleveland area, I can say with confidence that UNC is NOT a lock to get Delvon Roe. Yes, Jawad Williams went to the same high school, but that doesn't guarantee anything. It's between Michigan State and UNC, and both coaches have made numerous efforts to come see him play this past season. Personally, I think he fits better in Izzo's system, but that's neither here nor there. The kid has the kind of toughness that you see on Izzo-coached teams, and when you add the fact that MSU is a mere 3 hours away, he could very easily end up in East Lansing.

I also don't think he's a lock to be one-and-done, though it's certainly possible. Having seen him play 3 times this year, he reminds me of Luol Deng so so much. Granted he's only a junior (which is scary), he needs to add muscle/weight before he can think about going to the league. I think it's good that he has another year to grow into his body, because as this kid matures, he's going to get even better. He does absolutely everything on offense and defense, and he's not even flashy. One thing I noticed, though, is that he doesn't really shoot 3s and that's something he'll need to develop down the road.

And if you haven't seen Roe play, don't worry. Cleveland St. Ed's has a game on ESPN next year. The school already confirmed it.

[tux]

I think you're understating the impact of losing BW. Am I the only one who thought that he was a big difference-maker for UNC this year? Without BW, Tyler can be defended more effectively.

Lawson can motor, but if he doesn't develop a reliable outside shot, he can also the defended more effectively.

Don't get me wrong, I think if all UNC does is lose BW, then they are still the team to beat. But I'm reluctant to just pencil in Thompson or Stevenson.

I'm convinced that Duke will be better, or at least win more conference games since the league will not be as deep IMO. Losing Josh hurts, but we have talent coming in. And I think this year's freshmen will take a big step forward.

[_Gary]

I think you're understating the impact of losing BW. Am I the only one who thought that he was a big difference-maker for UNC this year?

Without a doubt! He made a huge difference for them, and people have been underestimating his contributions all year. Frankly, had he come here instead, I believe not only would UNC have been significantly weaker, but Duke would have been primed to still be playing this weekend. That's how much I think it hurt us not to land him.

Gary

[3rdgenDukie]

BW is a HUGE loss. He got the Heels an effortless 10-12 points on dunks/layups per game. He was also the only real shot-blocking threat on the team. Thompson looks like he'll be good, but make no mistake, he is not close to the freak that BW is.

I'm not sure if losing Lawson is a net positive/negative for the Heels. He clearly has an eye on the NBA, so if he stays, it will be the Ty Lawson show next year. He is also a fairly poor defender, and the Lawson/Ellington backcourt will still be very weak on that side of the court. Lastly, I wonder if Frasor would transfer should Lawson return. He got pretty much kicked to the curb this year, and with Larry Drew on the horizon, one wonders whether he is interested in being a career backup.

I think they both wind up going - Lawson could really slip if he comes back and has to compete with Rose/Mayo/Conley/Collison/Augustin/Crittendon/Chalmers, etc in next year's draft. And there ain't no way that kid is going to class for three years....

Regardless, if they keep TH, I see them battling GT for the regular season title - maybe us if we get Patterson.

[Kewlswim]

Go to hell Carolina.

Is that random enough for you?


Hi,

Go To Hell Carolina, Go To Hell. You missed that last Go To Hell. Now it is random enough for me. :-D

Thanks for posting.

GO DUKE!

[whereinthehellami]

I think they both wind up going - Lawson could really slip if he comes back and has to compete with Rose/Mayo/Conley/Collison/Augustin/Crittendon/Chalmers, etc in next year's draft. And there ain't no way that kid is going to class for three years....


That is an interesting point (next year's PGs) and one I'm sure that Lawson and his entourage are looking into. I wonder how Roy handles that one when he has the one and one with the Lawson family. Maybe thats why they're so nervous over there at IC.

If Lawson and Wright both go to the NBA, you gotta think that Hans will give it a hard look. I don't see that scenario happening though. But if they lose Wright and Lawson I think they would slip out of first place for sure.

[Wander]

If Wright is the only one who leaves early, they're the favorite in the ACC. He's a significant loss, but nothing UNC won't be able to overcome. They'll be a little drop-off from this season, but not too much. Lawson and Hansbrough would be one of the best inside-outside combos in the country.

If either Lawson or Hansbrough leaves, though, the ACC race becomes a hell of a lot more interesting.

[acciconoclast]

I would not be quite so dismissiver of Frasor. Obviously he has some limitations but he was generally quite solid as a freshman. Played with a stress foot fracture much of his soph year. If Frasor had been healthy all year, I think UNC would have taken Gtown--tough to get to Final Four starting two frosh guards

I'll be the contrarian and predict Hansbrough goes pro while Lawton and Wright return. Have to give Ol' Roy some credit for convincing Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson to come despite the fact they would obviously sit for a year or so. Both of those kids IMO are solid 3-4 year players. That was a good use of recruiting depth. If hansbrough returns (along with Wright) would not be surprised to see DT or AS redshirt.

[whereinthehellami]

Have to give Ol' Roy some credit for convincing Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson to come despite the fact they would obviously sit for a year or so. Both of those kids IMO are solid 3-4 year players. That was a good use of recruiting depth. If hansbrough returns (along with Wright) would not be surprised to see DT or AS redshirt.

What is everyone's impression of Stephenson? I didn't really see him play much? How does his game compare to Thompsons?

[freedevil]

Stepheson is the exact type of player Duke needs. I'm not sure about his ability to shoot the ball, but he has so much potential.

Why do people suggest Samuels is a lock for UNC? I'm pretty sure Duke is high on his list.

If Tywon and Brandan go pro, that team will be significantly weaker, and they did lose 5 ACC games with those guys anyways.

[whereinthehellami]

Its amazing the number of top recruits for 2008 that have UNC in their top three. Roy really gets out on the recruiting trail. It seems like he has a shotgun approach to recruiting, get a ton of recruits interested and then select a few from that list. Coach K targtets a couple of players and seems to put all his effort into those guys. Both their approaches seem to work for the respective coaches.

[DukeBlood]

Does anyone else feel that R. Terry was the X-factor for this team?

It seemed like everytime i watched UNC and it was a close game, it was Terry who hit the Big 3, or made a big shot. I think losing this guy and Wright(assuming he is gone) will really hurt this team. These are 2 very athletic people. and very talented basketball players.

Lawson
Ellington
Ginyard/Green
Thomspon/Stephenson
Hans

When I look at that lineup compared to this years, Im not nearly as in Aww of it. Thats a top-10 lineup for sure, but I cant see that lineup as team that can win it all.

[whereinthehellami]

Does anyone else feel that R. Terry was the X-factor for this team?

It seemed like everytime i watched UNC and it was a close game, it was Terry who hit the Big 3, or made a big shot. I think losing this guy and Wright(assuming he is gone) will really hurt this team. These are 2 very athletic people. and very talented basketball players.

Lawson
Ellington
Ginyard/Green
Thomspon/Stephenson
Hans

When I look at that lineup compared to this years, Im not nearly as in Aww of it. Thats a top-10 lineup for sure, but I cant see that lineup as team that can win it all.

I agree with those sentiments on paper. But I wonder if it will addition by subtraction. Ginyard seems like a glue type guy that might be more consistent than Terry was. I think Terry had a good senior season but I'm not sure he reached the potential that he showed occasionally.

Thompson showed some real potential and you've got to wonder what he will do with more minutes next year. Though its sometimes easier to come off the bench and look good in limited minutes. We'll see but I got a feeling Thompson is going to be a suprise for the ACC next year.

[Patrick Yates]

I would not be quite so dismissiver of Frasor. Obviously he has some limitations but he was generally quite solid as a freshman. Played with a stress foot fracture much of his soph year. If Frasor had been healthy all year, I think UNC would have taken Gtown--tough to get to Final Four starting two frosh guards

I'll be the contrarian and predict Hansbrough goes pro while Lawton and Wright return. Have to give Ol' Roy some credit for convincing Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson to come despite the fact they would obviously sit for a year or so. Both of those kids IMO are solid 3-4 year players. That was a good use of recruiting depth. If hansbrough returns (along with Wright) would not be surprised to see DT or AS redshirt.


That was my original point. With Frasor, it is not that UNC would be bad, it is just that, like in his frosh year, UNC would not be much of a threat to win the NC, or even to make the FF. Now, UNC is talented, so a run is not out of the question, but it is more unlikely with BF at the Point.

As for stephenson and Thompson, neither one will ever redshirt at UNC. One or the other would transfer first. Take that to the bank. Why redshirt when you face the possiblity of being recruited over. Either one could transfer and start at virtually any other hight major program after a year.

Patrick Yates

[whereinthehellami]

As for stephenson and Thompson, neither one will ever redshirt at UNC. One or the other would transfer first. Take that to the bank. Why redshirt when you face the possiblity of being recruited over. Either one could transfer and start at virtually any other hight major program after a year.

Patrick Yates

I wonder what Stephenson is thinking. He only played ~ 6 MPG this past season. He should see more minutes this coming season but Roy is recruiting over him big time for 2008. Has anyone heard any whispers of a transfer? Seems like he would be a starter at alot of other schools.

[whereinthehellami]

Last Season UNC had 10 players play 10 Mins or more:

Name MPG
Hans 30
Wright 27
Lawson 26
Ellington 24
Terry 22
Ginyard 17
Green 14
Thompson 12
Miller 11
Frasor 10

They are losing 60 MPG (counting Wright). They only add Graves and considering their wing players, I don't see him getting to 10 MPG next year.

Q Thomas will be a senior and maybe will get to 10 plus MPG but I don't think that happens unless Lawson leaves.

Stephenson should get to 10 plus MPG next year backing up Thompson. He averaged (over 6 MPG this past year).

So for next year I see 8 players seeing 10 MPG or more:

Name MPG
Hans
Lawson
Ellington
Thompson
Ginyard
Green
Stephenson
Frasor

So there seems to be a significant dropoff in depth and talent. But the returning players should all be stronger and more experienced, so they might be a better team.

[Lord Ash]

Here is a thought!

Carolina fans are idiots!

:)

Sorry, got into it with some Carolina fans on another board... just SUCH typical morons. It is AMAZING... they are SO dumb, and have such short memories... eh, maybe typical of a bunch of state educated hicks.

No offense meant... UNC is a wonderful university, I am just feeling a lot of anger towards UNC fans at the moment, and wanted to vent in a place where I knew others had felt the "We hate **** SO much" a lot this year too.

[whereinthehellami]

The primary partners are Duke and NCSU, two of the tougher teams in the ACC next year.

The rotating home and away teams are BC, Clemson, and FSU. At Clemson should be a good game.

UNC plays MD, VT, and WF at home only next year. Cake!

UNC plays at GT, UVA, and Miami only next year. At GT and at UVA could be tough games. They get any luck with these draws (excepting Miami).

UNC schedule seems middle of the road in terms of difficulty. I see them winning (spins wheel of prediction) 13 games next year (sans Wright).

[Patrick Yates]

As much as I love debating this points, discussing UNC next year is relatively pointless.

I believe that UNC, along with OSU, KS, UCONN, and a few unnamed others are the most "volatile" in hoops with regards to next year, among elite programs. The volatility would not lead to improvements. These programs could see their rosters change more, and more dramatically, than any other program next year, for the negative.

I will leave out any speculation as to improvement by young, current players, as Duke would climb into this bracket, for positive volatility. Player improvement is pure speculation, so I am just going to look at roster turnover.

FL does not get a mention, cause those kids are 95% likely to leave.

OSU and KS are subject to NBA defections, with KS losing quantity (as several kids could go pro), and OSU losing quality (only 2 players, but the best, and most important, 2 players). Conley is the key, with him back OSU's incoming recruits would replace Oden and the SRs easily.

UCONN could see a defection (thabeet) and an exodus via transfer, as UCONN has no scholly's for next year, but remains involved with a number of prospects.

KY could climb into positive volatility with a good hire that could swing a late, and impressive, recruiting class.

UNC could be drastically worse, slightly worse, and anything in between.

Everyone could come back, making UNC the prohibitive favorite next year.

Wright might leave, but the team would have a minor drop off in talent as the others return/improve.

Wright and Lawson might leave, leving UNC thin and unathletic at point.

W, L, and Hans could leave, leaving UNC shallow up front, with an unathletic PG and wings and posts that are incompatible.

Wright leaves, Frasor, one of the Wings, or one of the posts (prob Stephenson) transfer out, again leaving UNC weakened, thin, etc.

As has been said before, Lawson is the key, Hans a step below. Lawson makes their team go, and Hans is the piller.

There are too many what if scenarios at UNC right now, moreso than at any school save FL or KY due to KY's job hunt. Who knows what will go down? One month from today, April 30, we can truly begin the wild speculation and rumor mongoring that I love so much.

Patrick Yates

ps: Knightmare scenario

Donovan accepts a Pro job with a salary in the 7-8 million dollar range.

Wright is gone.

Lawson and Hans follow out the door.

Suddenly, with tons o' PT availible, Ol "roy turns to the two remaining MCD's AA who come to UNC as a package deal to step into starring roles at a premeir program. Lucas and PP would have to look at UNC if this happened. Roy is probably calling already, with the what if scenario that I just described.

With the way this hellish year is going, is this that far-fetched?

[whereinthehellami]

As much as I love debating this points, discussing UNC next year is relatively pointless.

I couldn't agree more, who started this thread anyways. Some people are hopeless romantics and others are just hopeless. I enjoy the basketball season as much as the next person but there is just something about grabbing a post-it and scribbling out that moments dream line-up, even though its not worth the paper its written on.

[whereinthehellami]

I saw this posted on the main page of DBR. Where was he going? The DL? Things are definately out of whack, when an inconsistent player gives a press release declaring that he isn't going pro. Did anyone have him as a possibility of declaring?

Maybe its a ploy from Roy to try and develop some momentum for the upcoming announcements from the players that actually have a chance on getting picked in the first round. Who's the next to announce that he staying, Frasor?