Phase I - 2009

[Jumbo]

It's here! Woohoo! Gameday! And the first phase of the season. Let's define this as today through the end of the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney. Assuming Duke makes it to New York, that's only five games (that Rhode Island contest is thrown in the middle), but it's a good test and a nice place to stop and evaluate, before plowing forward. Anyway, here's what I'll be watching as we build toward a potential matchup with UCLA.

To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that?
I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D. But a key thing to look for are quick hit-aheads. If Duke really wants to run, the guys need to advance the ball with the pass, not the dribble. This is especially true without a pure point guard. So, I don't want to simply see a big guy grab a board and outlet to Paulus and Smith, who try to push it up the floor off the bounce. I don't want to see Singler, Henderson or Scheyer grab a board and take off up the floor. I want to see if Duke can locate a first outlet pass quickly, then make a quick hit-ahead down the wing, past halfcourt. That's how you run, and Duke should have enough versatile players to make that work.

How will Duke utilize Singler?
When last we left Kyle, he was standing outside, launching three after three. He has a nice jumper, but that's not the strength of his game. He can score off the bounce. He has legit post moves. He has an in-between game. Singler needs to start inside and work his way out. He has to give Duke some kind of a post presence, especially given that he'll be playing more 4 this year, giving him better matchups on the block. He needs to get to the FT line and help balance the offense. Obviously, we'll run a ton of pick-and-roll with him, and he'll get his share of jumpers. But let's see what K does to get him involved inside.

Who initiates the offense?
I don't think it's simply going to be the point guards. I expect Duke to run a lot of its offense through the wings. In particular, I'm interested to see how much Scheyer has the ball in his hands, and how often Paulus and Smith don't have the ball, setting up in the corner instead. For my money, Scheyer is the top playmaker on the team. I'm interested to see if K hands him the ball and lets him set up his teammates.

Will we see more motion?
Connected to the issue above, last year's offense was fairly stagnant. Duke looked to spread the floor (as always) and attack off the dribble. This team can do that, but also is built fairly well for more movement off the ball, screens, motion. The differences will be subtle, but I'm anxious to see if K has tweaked the offense to rely a little less on side ball-screens.

Who finishes the game at the point?
Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

How does Duke adjust its man-to-man with Zoubek in the game?
This is a really interesting issue. Duke has to make some adjustments to accomodate Zoubek's defensive limitations if he's going to be a factor. So, let's how the Devils defend the pick and roll with Zoubek in there and how the ball pressure changes.

What can we reasonably expect from Plumlee and Williams?
Strong D out of both guys and some rebounding from Plumlee will be enough for me.

What will Duke's rotation look like in a close game?
I'm thinking it's nine guys for sure, maybe 10. You've got the current starting five -- Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Plumlee. Paulus, Zoubek, Williams and Thomas are definitely in. McClure is on the bubble. I think Pocius will be on the outside looking in. I don't see any way Czyz plays in a close game.

Just how much has Henderson progressed?
Everyone seems to think he's ready for a major star burst. Perhaps. But he still had a lot of room for improvement at the end of last season, notably his left hand, his court visions, his shooting range and his on-ball D.

Edit: Adding this one -- Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

There are many, many, many more questions to answer. But I'll be looking for clues to these during the first phase.

[Bob Green]

It's here! Woohoo! Gameday! And the first phase of the season.

Thanks for another great job analyzing the team. I've added my two cents on a couple of your points.


To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that? I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D.

Hopefully we utilize our depth and pick up full court for long stretches of time. We should be able to run many teams right out of the gym by rotating in fresh players and playing continuous uptempo basketball.


How will Duke utilize Singler? He has to give Duke some kind of a post presence, especially given that he'll be playing more 4 this year, giving him better matchups on the block. He needs to get to the FT line and help balance the offense.

We need Singler at the 4 creating match-up problems for the opponent. In order for Singler to thrive at the 4, the combination of Plumlee and Zoubek have to get the job done in the post. The key is these two guys being a legitimate threat that occupies the attention of our opponent's big man allowing Singler to go to work against their second inside player. The main things we need from Plumlee and Zoubek are rebounds, putbacks off the offensive glass, good free throw percentages, and inside disruption of the opponent's offensive flow. If Plumlee and Zoubek play good to above average, Singler will have an All America quality season.


Who finishes the game at the point? Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

This is the $64,000 question. I really hope Duke and UCLA play in the Championship Game so we can get an early indication of who is going to be on the court late in tough games.


What will Duke's rotation look like in a close game? I'm thinking it's nine guys for sure, maybe 10. You've got the current starting five -- Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Plumlee. Paulus, Zoubek, Williams and Thomas are definitely in. McClure is on the bubble. I think Pocius will be on the outside looking in. I don't see any way Czyz plays in a close game.

I agree that the rotation will be nine or ten deep even in close games. We have 10 fundamentally sound scholarship players who are ready and able to contribute. We need to force the tempo and run teams into submission. When the fast break isn't there and we set up our half-court offense, we need to pound the ball inside with the dual benefit of getting to the free throw line and getting our opponent in foul trouble. A side benefit of being deep is being able to gamble with foul trouble ourselves.

We are solid, solid, solid at the 2, 3 & 4. The positions/players I will be intently observing during Phase 1 are point guard (Smith, Paulus, Scheyer) and center (Plumlee & Zoubek).

[gw67]

Jumbo - I like your list. The area that I will be watching during the Phase I games that I can watch will be passing, both on the fast break and in the half court. As you pointed out, last year there was a lot of one-on-one play by the wings. I hope that there is more motion and making the extra pass this year.

gw67

[dukelifer]

Just how much has Henderson progressed?
Everyone seems to think he's ready for a major star burst. Perhaps. But he still had a lot of room for improvement at the end of last season, notably his left hand, his court visions, his shooting range and his on-ball D.


My sense is for Duke to be great, Henderson needs to be very consistent this year- averaging in the mid to high teens - game in and game out - and be a very good rebounder- picking up the slack of not have Demarcus on the floor this year. In the last two years- he has disappeared at times with 4 -8 point performances. He has to pace himself better and explode when needed. Duke can certainly win without Henderson being great- but his ability to play at a high level consistently will ultimately determine how far this team goes at the end of the year.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who finishes the game at the point?
Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

I love this question, and think it can apply to Plumlee / Zoubek also. I think it's a better determining factor of need than who started. I'm not sure we won't have a good answer until we play (hopefully) UCLA. If any of these games is a blowout, then we will have to ask who was last on the floor before the final subs came in.

[Jeffrey]

We are solid, solid, solid at the 2, 3 & 4. The positions/players I will be intently observing during Phase 1 are point guard (Smith, Paulus, Scheyer).....

Hi,

IMO, we are solid at the point. Nolan Smith will be one of the best PG's in the country this year. Next year.... watch out!

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[BlueintheFace]

I would also add, to what degree do we see our big men get the ball on the block? This is not something that ever really happened last year. However, I have a feeling that K might feel that a little offensive diversity here will only help the team in March this time around... especially if what I hear about Plumlee's passing ability out of the block is correct. I'm not saying "feed the ball down low" will ever be our game plan, but I expect that we will do this a little bit more than last year...

[elvis14]

Great list Jumbo. Here are a couple of things I'll be looking for as well:


Passing in the paint and on the pick and roll. Last year our offense was build around drive and kick and the 3. I'm OK with that. At the same time I would like to see us get some more layups by driving and dishing in the paint in addition to the kick outs. This helps us in a couple of ways. First it makes the kick out for the 3 even more open (if teams have to respect the interior a bit more) and I think it'll get us to the free throw line more putting the other teams bigs in more foul trouble. A similar issue is simply making good entry passes off of the pick and roll. This is where I think Zoubek could be useful. Last year there were times where Z would set a pick and roll to the paint putting himself in great position (almost like he'd been well coached!) for an entry pass with a smaller defender sealed behind him and the pass didn't happen. I think we are giving up some solid points there. Also if someone has to double down on Z or Miles on the pick and roll...well there's another open 3 for Duke! In either case I just want to see a little more passing in the paint, easy baskets, and fouls. Note, I'm not suggesting we abandon our offense, just take easy shots when they are given. I'd love to see Nolan beating his man into the paint and hitting Singler for easy layups once Singler's man rotates to help.
I'm one of the people that have been calling for Nolan to start since he got here. I really hope he steps up and plays well.
I agree with what Jumbo says about using the pass to run the floor. We need to rebound well on the defensive end to make this happen.
What will we get out of Lance Thomas (great guy, works hard, but IMHO just isn't rebounding and scoring enough) and Dave McClure (great guy, has been injured, no offense, great defense and intangibles)?
Will Henderson take his game up a notch. If he can consistently play well and occasionally play great (meaning have games where he is unstoppable) we are really going to enjoy this season
I have tickets to the second came Tuesday in CIS......doesn't really add anything to the conversation I'm just really really happy about that!! Whoo Hoo!

[COYS]

To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that?
I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D. But a key thing to look for are quick hit-aheads. If Duke really wants to run, the guys need to advance the ball with the pass, not the dribble. This is especially true without a pure point guard. So, I don't want to simply see a big guy grab a board and outlet to Paulus and Smith, who try to push it up the floor off the bounce. I don't want to see Singler, Henderson or Scheyer grab a board and take off up the floor. I want to see if Duke can locate a first outlet pass quickly, then make a quick hit-ahead down the wing, past halfcourt. That's how you run, and Duke should have enough versatile players to make that work.

Great point, as always, Jumbo. This was a big concern of mine last year, but my hope is that the play of Zoubek/Plumlee in the post will take care of a lot of this just by grabbing boards. Hopefully our guards won't have to worry about crashing the boards quite as much as last year and can concentrate on getting in position to receive a quick outlet and then pass the ball up the court quickly. If we can do this successfully, the efficiency of our offense will increase dramatically, we'll play to the strength of our perimeter guys and to our depth, and we'll run many teams out of the gym. Against the better teams, even just a few fast break opportunities created by good passing will be key to get a few extra high percentage shots, which could be the deciding factor in a close game. Although I think our post play will be much improved this year, there still will be games when the threes and other jumpers aren't falling and our half-court offense seems a little weak. If we still can't get easy buckets by dumping the ball into the post, creating our own fast breaks off of defensive rebounds will be key to preventing scoring droughts and jump-starting the offense.

[mkirsh]

I agree with Bob - in order for Singler to have a great year and truly be an inside-out threat, we need good production from Plumlee/Zoubek and I would throw Thomas in there as well. If those 3 can play the 5 position, that will free up Singler to play the 4. If those 3 don't produce, you will see a lot of the Singler-Henderson-Scheyer-Smith-Paulus small ball lineup, which limits Singler's effectiveness and wore him down a lot last year. We all know Coach K does tend to prefer to go with a smaller and more mobile lineup, so Plumlee, Zoubek, and Thomas have to play very well to prevent that tendency (and the subsequent 10,000 small ball threads on DBR that I hope not to read this year).

[whereinthehellami]

Can Duke get to the next level with only Singler being a 1st team ACC player? It seems like alot of fans are pinning Duke's expectations on the chest of Henderson. What happens if Henderson is still inconsistent or isn't the MAN? Can Duke get to the next level? I think they can to an extent. With the talent and experience that Duke has I think they can get to the final 4.

[sagegrouse]

Can Duke get to the next level with only Singler being a 1st team ACC player? It seems like alot of fans are pinning Duke's expectations on the chest of Henderson. What happens if Henderson is still inconsistent or isn't the MAN? Can Duke get to the next level? I think they can to an extent. With the talent and experience that Duke has I think they can get to the final 4.

I agree that Singler is a known quantity and should improve this year from the starring role he played last year as a freshman.

Gerald is the big question to me -- not his talent level, but the whole package including cockiness, determination, and a "give me the damned ball" attitude. His emergence would give us two legitimate all-ACC level players.

Now, to my surprise, Gerald was picked pre-season first team all-ACC. Where did this come from??? I refuse to believe the scribes watch a lot of film and build elaborate tables of strengths and weaknesses. I guess it has a lot to do with the Hansbrough episode and the fact that all publicity is good publicity, no matter the apparent context.

I don't want to overlook known quantities like Scheyer, who will play a Jim Spanarkel-like role as the glue that holds the team together, and Paulus, whose shooting can be deadly. I have high hopes that Nolan will be a good point guard and a defensive stopper, the latter being the most important given the skills of the folks mentioned above.

Also, we need something in the middle. Seems like we should expect the equivalent of one serviceable big man out of the combination of MP1, Zoubs and LT. Anything beyond a little bit of offense, decent defense and aggressive rebounding is gravy.

sagegrouse

[Bob Green]

IMO, we are solid at the point. Nolan Smith will be one of the best PG's in the country this year. Next year.... watch out!


I believe we have the potential to be solid at the point and Nolan Smith has the potential to be one of the best PGs in the country. However, Smith has to go out on the court and prove it. I'm optimistic he will.

[COYS]

I agree that Singler is a known quantity and should improve this year from the starring role he played last year as a freshman.

I know you didn't mean this to disparage Singler in any way, but I think that he's only a known quantity in that he was great last year and we expect him to be great again this year. The question is, how great can he become? I firmly believe that with his improved strength, conditioning, and experience, he may actually be the biggest breakout player on Duke's team this year. I understand why everyone is excited about Hendo, and I certainly am, too. But I still expect to see Singler leading the team in scoring this year and, if he's improved as much as it seems he has from the reports from the exhibition games, he may push that scoring average well up into the upper teens. Last year, he was really good, and unbelievable for a freshman, but he battled inconsistency late in the season as he wore down. His a/to ratio was also lower than I think he's capable of. If he improves his already solid playmaking ability and adds that to increased scoring and rebounding numbers, I think he's got the potential to sneak up on everyone (even some of the fans) and have a monster season.

[Devil07]

Although I don't think we will know unless we (hopefully) play UCLA, I'm most interested to see who finishes the game at the 5. I'm inclined to think it will be Singler, but late game rebounding really killed us last season. Although not having to guard the opposing team's center all game should keep Singler fresh for the last few minutes, I do worry about going small at the end of games. If Plumlee/Zoubek are trusted with finishing games I think that would give us a lot more crunch time flexibility.

[Wander]

Perhaps we will see more offense/defense micromanagement than usual at the end of close games? (quick subbing between Paulus and Smith). I can't imagine not having Paulus in there, but I also don't want to see Singler at the 5.

[Jumbo]

I'm adding one:
Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

[BlueintheFace]

I'm adding one:
Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

My guess is that the player who it will impact most is G. If he hits threes this season, then defenders will be forced to push out on him, thusly opening up more space for him to get by with that first step or two. This of course, means that he will have more space to decide: A) whether or not to take it to the hoop depending on how fast the help defense is rolling, and B) if the defense rotates, where the open man is for the kick out (presumably left corner or right corner at the three point line).

... the same goes for scheyer if he can get that defender to hesitate on that shot-fake he loves so much long enough to initiate the drive.

[socaldukie]

It still amazes me how under appreciated a guy like Scheyer is. He means so much to this team and contributes in so many ways. Yet, most all want to talk about is Singler and Hendo.

I have every bit of confidence in Scheyer taking over games and being one of the main reasons we have a long run into March/April.

All I am saying is I think he is much, much more than just a glue guy. :cool:

[Jumbo]

It still amazes me how under appreciated a guy like Scheyer is. He means so much to this team and contributes in so many ways. Yet, most all want to talk about is Singler and Hendo.

I have every bit of confidence in Scheyer taking over games and being one of the main reasons we have a long run into March/April.

All I am saying is I think he is much, much more than just a glue guy. :cool:



See my Phase 0 thread ...

[miramar]

Just to add my two cents' worth, Jumbo noted that on defense Duke will have to adjust to Zoubek's limitations, but I also think they have to adjust to him on offense. When Zoubek posts up, he is so big that he basically blocks that side of the lane. Since Duke was attacking off the dribble so much, I got the impression that the rest of the guys would stand around a bit more since they didn't have the same driving lanes that they were used to. Elvis14 has noted the importance of good passing in the paint, and it seems that they will also have to kick the ball back out quickly, or make the skip pass to drive from the weak side. On the upside, Zoubek seems to create a lot of problems for Hansbrough, and he seems to alter a lot of shots, so he can make a real contribution.

[miramar]

Although I don't think we will know unless we (hopefully) play UCLA, I'm most interested to see who finishes the game at the 5. I'm inclined to think it will be Singler, but late game rebounding really killed us last season. Although not having to guard the opposing team's center all game should keep Singler fresh for the last few minutes, I do worry about going small at the end of games. If Plumlee/Zoubek are trusted with finishing games I think that would give us a lot more crunch time flexibility.

If Duke is nursing a lead, I would expect to see both Paulus and Smith for better ball handling, and Singler at the 5. He is outstanding at running down the clock and then driving on the opposing big man. But in close games against big teams, Plumlee and Zoubek should be able to step up.

[greybeard]

I wouldn';t be surprised to see a little Princeton in the half court, only Jeff Green/ roy Hibbert style instead of the straight Princeton. Am I the only one who could see Kyle handling at the top of the key, throwing backdoor passes if the wings are overplayed, shooting the 3 or mid range 2 as the clock runs down or dribbling past a bigger defender if challenged. Or taking a bounce and either handing off to a wing, or again having them backdoor.

I'm not saying that this will be the predominent set, but I can see this working, and having a high low game, with Duke's bigs catching it on the move and shooting it, not classically posting and holding position.

Of course, that would mean another fairly radical change in two years. However, teams began figuring out ways to stop the creation of inside out play off of wing penetration the second half of the season, and Duke had a difficult time attacking the basket with its bigs. That should improve with Lance and Zoubek much healthier, but I'd love to see Singler in Jeff Green's role. Think it would be awesome.

I have a sense that you might well see Henderson going off on run outs aka in that tournament game. If he grabs a rebound in a crowd, he can beat the guys who are physical enough to make it difficult for him in the lane on the other end, and outphysical those who can get back. Of course, there are the floppers, and Gerald must be able to know when to just circle on out. I do not see him dribbling down and distributing. Think David Thompson here folks. Oops, I said it again. I still think he reminds me of him, only with a little more toughness, and less range on that shot.

I'm pumped. Singler being a face the basket pivot, penetrating or shooting as the clock runs down or popping it to shooters Scheyer and Paulus, or cutters like Henderson, Smith, Czzzz, or tossing it to a big in stride. A guy could dream, right? :)

[BlueintheFace]

I wouldn';t be surprised to see a little Princeton in the half court, only Jeff Green/ roy Hibbert style instead of the straight Princeton. Am I the only one who could see Kyle handling at the top of the key, throwing backdoor passes if the wings are overplayed, shooting the 3 or mid range 2 as the clock runs down or dribbling past a bigger defender if challenged. Or taking a bounce and either handing off to a wing, or again having them backdoor.

I'm not saying that this will be the predominent set, but I can see this working, and having a high low game, with Duke's bigs catching it on the move and shooting it, not classically posting and holding position.

Of course, that would mean another fairly radical change in two years. However, teams began figuring out ways to stop the creation of inside out play off of wing penetration the second half of the season, and Duke had a difficult time attacking the basket with its bigs. That should improve with Lance and Zoubek much healthier, but I'd love to see Singler in Jeff Green's role. Think it would be awesome.

I can see it working, but it just isn't K's style...

[Kedsy]

I can see it working, but it just isn't K's style...

I agree. Plus, despite the fact that it could work, I don't think even a modified Princeton offense takes advantage of our greatest strengths (namely, speed and athleticism).

Also, while G is a great athlete and has a great deal of potential, the comparison with David Thompson is just too out there. I doubt David Thompson ever had a game with only 7 points and 4 rebounds, and I don't care who the game was against or what the final score turned out to be. Yes, I realize we've played only one real game, but G was pretty quiet in the two exhibition games as well. All-America, first team All-ACC types bring it every single game. I'm starting to think that talk was way off base. Don't get me wrong, I think G will be a major cog for a great Duke team this year. But David Thompson, one of the greatest college players ever? Not even close.

[Bob Green]

Think David Thompson here folks.

When I think David Thompson I think about the greatest player in the history of the ACC. Sorry, I'm not seeing it. Comparing any current Duke player to David Thompson is outrageous.

For anyone out there who is too young to have seen David Thompson in action he was simply amazing. The Michael Jordan of 82-84 couldn't carry the 73-75 David Thompson's jock strap.

[greybeard]

Fellas, fellas, chill. If you read carefully, my reference to David Thompson here was not to what he did well, but rather to the limitation on one of the things that he did well--which was taking it the lengh of the court.

Thompson, to the extent that he went off on run outs off of rebounds, either scored the ball himself, or pulled it out. He did not try to create on a run out because that was beyond his skill set. On the other hand, he could hurt you his own self, since the guys who might be back were no match physically. As long as he avoided a charge, finishing was no problem.

What I referenced here was only that Henderson has a similar shortcoming, although, now that I think about it, he might well be better taking it the length than Thompson.

One compares a player to a David Thompson not to say that they are coequals, but rather because everyone who ever saw David Thompson play has pictures still in their minds about what he looked like doing different things. Thus, it gives you a feel for what words might otherwise do inadequately.

My mental image is seeing David on a run up court, curling toward the sideline and then back maybe 10 15 feet after half court when there was too much going on in front of him on a run out for him to deal with. He looked awkward in those moments, at least for him, but it was a disciplined play, probably drummed into him by Sloan, in exchange for giving David the freedom to grab it off the board and try to take it all the way.

If that image in my mind's eye is faulty or does not register on you, then the reference to Thompson in this instance failed. However, at least here my reference to Thompson is misconstrued.

[Saratoga2]

It still amazes me how under appreciated a guy like Scheyer is. He means so much to this team and contributes in so many ways. Yet, most all want to talk about is Singler and Hendo.

I have every bit of confidence in Scheyer taking over games and being one of the main reasons we have a long run into March/April.

All I am saying is I think he is much, much more than just a glue guy. :cool:

Jumbo said it. I also expect Scheyer to handle the ball a lot ot the time, once it gets into the half court. He is good at drawing the defender, since he is a real threat to score. As a result opponents have to get up close on him and then he can make entry passes to the block in good position and with good timing. Last year, some of our guards made bounce passes into our bigs, and guys like Zoubek had trouble and probably Plumee will have trouble dealing with balls entering in that way.

I can think of additional question for this year. What do we do when our opponents decide to take Singler out of his game through the use of one or more of their best defenders? We saw that strategy used against Redick in the past and it worked. Where will the points come from in that situation? Scheyer, Henderson, Smith, Paulus?

[greybeard]

A penny wager: The game will flow through Singler in the half court towards the end of games, and it will have elements of the Princeton in its options.

[Kedsy]

A penny wager: The game will flow through Singler in the half court towards the end of games, and it will have elements of the Princeton in its options.

I'll take that bet. As I said before, I agree with you that it could work. But the Princeton offense requires a great deal of practice to get right, and I can't imagine Coach K devoting that much practice time on something that is so different from what he wants the team to do most of the time.

[greybeard]

I'll take that bet. As I said before, I agree with you that it could work. But the Princeton offense requires a great deal of practice to get right, and I can't imagine Coach K devoting that much practice time on something that is so different from what he wants the team to do most of the time.

Not so different, not at all. You give it to Singler on the high post. Wings step back to the three line or move towards Singler, either they get room or they go to the basket. Singler's guy has to come ever more tight as he is just inside the top of the key and can kill it. He comes too close, bye-bye. He can dribble toward a wing, defender overplays, dive, defender doesn't, hands off. I really do not know how the last 10-15 seconds of the Princeton play, but it is not largely different than what the Dukies have been doing with wing penetration. Wll not take a lot to function well off of getting Singler the ball in that spot. If they do, then my guess what they do will more resemble the final stages of the Princeton, when that offense is intent on scoring the ball, than not.

If Singler is not beat at the end of games, he is the guy in whose hands I want the ball. He is the best interior passer on the team by miles, can shoot with just about any of them, and if isolated at the top of the key, a little inside it, like I said, with space because people are d'ing the perimeter like the lives depend on it, then he can go left or right, under control, and finish. He is a good foul shooter.

Teams have figured out to stop wing penetration with overphysical play that forces the wings to belly out as they dribble laterally, and making them too off balance to get an edge regularly, as they did in the earlier part of last season, if the lane was there to take it to the hole.

A big comes out on Singler in that way, with the other players spread, I like his chances against any belly they want to push at him.

[Jeffrey]

I believe we have the potential to be solid at the point and Nolan Smith has the potential to be one of the best PGs in the country. However, Smith has to go out on the court and prove it. I'm optimistic he will.

Hi Bob,

IMO, Nolan Smith had to show more than just potential for Coach K to bench a three year starter. Coach K's actions, and Nolan's previous play, tell me that we're solid at the point.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[Indoor66]

Hi Bob,

IMO, Nolan Smith had to show more than just potential for Coach K to bench a three year starter. Coach K's actions, and Nolan's previous play, tell me that we're solid at the point.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

It might be relevant to also consder the fact that Paulus had a knee injury this summer and lost some development time. I will be more clear on the status of each about mid-December when Greg has played his way back into game shape.

[Bob Green]

Hi Bob,

IMO, Nolan Smith had to show more than just potential for Coach K to bench a three year starter. Coach K's actions, and Nolan's previous play, tell me that we're solid at the point.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

I'm a big Nolan Smith fan and excited he is starting. I'm simply stating that we all need to wait and see how things shake out against top notch competition. These early season games can be misleading. If we end up playing UCLA in MSG, it should be a nice litmus test for our back court. Indoor66's point in regard to Paulus being hurt over the summer is definitely germane.

[greybeard]

Scheyer has been great at running the team. He gives it up easy which I like.

I saw something the last game which reminded me of two or three passes I had seen last year of a similar ilk which, at the end of the day, do not seem to work. There was a time when such passes were great, but no longer.

The pass I am talking about is from the top of the circle on an obtused angle bounce--a low pass to a moving big in the interior, particular if the pass comes across the passer's body.

Scheyer himself has no peer (at least now that Nelson is gone) in laying outside the lane, outside the field of vision, with his attention seemingly on the guy he is guarding, just waiting to shoot the gap and steal such otherwise beautiful entries.

He was victimized once on such an attempt this past game. Last year there were several such good defensive plays that stymied his otherwise seemingly clever entry attempts.

I don't pretend to know how that play can be made with the speed and smarts of modern littles, if at all. Those kind of bounce passes it seems to me can be made when the passer still has his dribble, is inside the top of the key, and is holding the ball high, or is croached low in a seeming attack mode. Singler has done a good job from such a position. I don't know that the modern game permits that type of entry bounce pass from the position and circumstance that Scheyer sometimes tries it from.

[Wander]

He gives it up easy which I like.

This is a family board, greybeard.

[phaedrus]

This is a family board, greybeard.

I believe you meant to say, "That's what she said".

[Jumbo]

Phase I is over. Phase II starts pretty quickly (why on in the world do we play back-to-back games in NY, have the team fly back to Duke and then play a random game against Montana on a Sunday???), so it's time for a look back.

"To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that?"
Not much, from what I've seen. This team will run off turnovers, but they're not looking to push off every rebound and certainly not made baskets. Up-tempo basketball requires a commitment to play that way under all circumstances and it requires passing to advance the ball up the court. Too often, even when Duke wants to run, someone pounds the ball into the floor.

"How will Duke utilize Singler?"
I love the way Singler is attacking off the dribble. He definitely isn't shying away from anything, drifting to the perimeter to shoot jumpers. I'd still like to see Duke post him a few times a game, thouhg.

"Who initiates the offense?"
As I expected, the point guard's role has been diminished in this regard. Sure, Smith and Paulus might bring the ball up, but Scheyer is in a playmaking role far more often. So too, interestingly, is Singler.

"Will we see more motion?"
Apparently not. The spread offense Duke is running still emphasizes spacing over movement. It's a shame, because when Duke runs a set play and screens more off the ball, things tend to work out well. I think the spread would be even more effective if the offense maintained its spacing while still encouraging more cutting/screening off the ball. Tough to do, but not impossible.

"Who finishes the game at the point?"
We've only had one close finish, but it looks like Smith is the guy for now.

"How does Duke adjust its man-to-man with Zoubek in the game?"
Zoubek isn't pressuring the ball 30 feet away, but Duke is still largely playing its standard D with Zoubek in there. The help D has been impressive behind him.

"What can we reasonably expect from Plumlee and Williams?"
In retrospect, it might have been a little too much right away. Williams impressed me in NY -- he will be a key guy in various spots this year. Plumlee is behind Zoubek and Thomas right now, but if he starts to pick more stuff up, I'm sure he'll have opportunities to play.

"What will Duke's rotation look like in a close game?"
I expected 9-10, and that's the case. I thought McClure as on the bubble, but he's definitely part of it. There's a core 9 right now -- the starting 5 plus Thomas, Paulus, McClure and Williams. I think Pocius and Plumlee will continue to get spot work depending on matchups. Czyz, clearly, will not be part of the mix this year.

"Just how much has Henderson progressed?"
His stroke looks better. His help D is stronger. He seems more unselfish on offense. I'm still looking for better lateral movement when he guards the ball, better ability to go left, improvement in his handle and better court vision, too. I know everyone wants him to be a superstar, but those are legit areas that still need development.

"Will the new three-point line matter?"
I don't think it does, but Duke clearly isn't shooting the three as well as we'd like so far. Still, I think it's more of a sample size issue than a problem for guys to shoot from a foot deeper.

I'll try to post Phase II tonight or tomorrow.