Expectations for Henderson [Archive]

gw67

10-28-2008, 08:49 AM

The expectations for this year’s team are high. Based on numerous posts on this site, the expectations for the team's leaders are also high. In particular, many posters see Gerald Henderson as a 1st team All ACC, All American and possible ACC POY as well as a top NBA draft choice. The ACC sportswriters recently voted him on their 1st team preseason All ACC team although he failed to make honorable mention last year. In doing so, he leap frogged eight players who were chosen 2nd or 3rd team last year including two Duke teammates (Singler and Paulus) and a high school teammate (Ellington) who has performed better to date.

Why the high expectations for a player who has averaged 9.9 ppg for his first two years? I suspect that there are a number of reasons. First, he improved in several offensive categories last year. Second, he came on very strong at the end of last season. Third, with Nelson gone, his minutes should go up and the team will rely on him and others to make up Nelson’s contributions, and last, it is hoped that he will be injury free this year.

Personally, I see Henderson having a very good season and averaging 15-17 ppg on a well balanced team. If the Devils do well as I and most others expect them to do, I can see him being a 1st team All ACC but his numbers will not be good enough to be a consensus All American. He has several areas in his game that have been below average for a perimeter player – ball handling, passing, long range shooting and foul shooting. His form appears good so I expect him to become at least average from beyond the 3-point line and at the foul line. This improvement plus his strong mid-range game and ability to drive to the hoop plus his shot blocking skills should be enough to lead the Devils. If he could only handle the ball and pass it like his dad, he would be the player who could be compared to top Duke players of the past.

I’ve been a Duke fan for many years and I cannot recall a player who has received this much preseason hype after just OK freshman/soph seasons. The player who came to my mind was Danny Ferry but Ferry was 2nd team All ACC his sophomore year. Several players have come on strong during their senior year (e.g. Duhon, Carrawell) but they didn’t receive the hype that Henderson is getting. Tate Armstrong went from a player who didn’t do much his first two years to a 20 point scorer and eventually an Olympian but I don’t believe he even made 1st team All ACC until his senior year.

I hope Henderson has a terrific season. I liked his dad as a player and, in addition, I admire him because he was reported to be a scratch golfer when he entered Duke. Maybe he can get his handicap to the point that he can get a sponsor’s exemption or two during the NBA off-season in a couple of years.

gw67

ACCBBallFan

10-28-2008, 09:57 AM

Rather than place such high expectations on one guy, it would be better to expect the core of Kyle-G-Jon to excel collectively and be supplemented well by the virtual PG (Nolan/Greg) and the post defender by committee (Miles-Z-Lance-Dave) with Elliott/Marty as well as each other in reserve to back up the perimeter guys.

Much more flexible than living or dying with how one guy does, regardless of how good he may or may not be individually this year.

Perhaps Duke's biggest potential pitfall is if G or Kyle being playing for NBA scouts rather than team success which I do not think is likely, same problem UNC could have no so much with Tyler as with Ty, Wayne and Danny.

Jeffrey

10-28-2008, 10:17 AM

In particular, many posters see Gerald Henderson as a 1st team All ACC, All American and possible ACC POY as well as a top NBA draft choice.

Hi,

Do many posters truly see Gerald as the ACC POY? I'd think Tyler is strongly favored at this point.

OTOH, why wouldn't Gerald be expected to be 1st team All ACC at this point in time? I can't name 5 more likely players at this point.

So, I think the only questionable call, at this point, is whether Gerald will be an All American. I certainly think he has the potential and the preseason expectations for Gerald are reasonable.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Diddy

10-28-2008, 10:50 AM

G has a ton of potential. He may have the highest ceiling in the entire ACC. I cannot think of a player who has more upside. Perhaps Aminu at WFU, or Davis at UNC, but they are Frosh so who knows. If Lawson has learned to shoot, his ceiling would approach G's. But that is it in the ACC.

At Duke, Singler is very good. But his game is already very polished. The only weaknesses he really had were physical, and he is close to maxing that out. He will be good at Duke, and probably in the NBA a la Battier or Dunleavy or Deng.

G has the potential to be a superstar. Outside of the Freshman in the ACC, he is the only potential NBA superstar that I really see in the ACC. His physical gifts are in the upper echelon of the NBA, to say nothing of college. Last year he got his conditioning under control, and started to hone his skills. If he makes a similiar leap this year, he could be special. His numbers won't approach JJ's or anything, but we don't need them to. G is the type of guy who could put up those type of numbers if we needed him to, provided he honed his skills.

Frankly, I thought his ball handling was really solid at the end of the year. I think Nelson and Singler got much bigger "passes" from this board for their late year swoons. Justifiable passes certainly, but G barely dropped off after sustaining an injury that could have really devastated his year.

If he develops even a reliable 3 shot, he would be almost impossible to guard. If you are close enough to shut down the three, he will go arround you. While there are a number of other players who could do that, he is one of the few who can then posterize even a quality low post defender. Teams will lay off G to avoid this, and if he can knock down .333 or better of his threes, he becomes deadly. He already plays good defense, and I think we would consider him to be a great defender but for him playing next to Nelson for the last two years.

Based on G's gifts, and the fact that he started to assert himself at the end of last year, I can easily see him as a First Team All ACC. To win POY, he would have to put up big numbers AND we would have to beat UNC for the league crown in the regular season. That would be a lot to ask.

Right now, Singler is somewhat unknown, or unreliable, as far as the pre-season media awards. The way he finished his frosh year left a bad taste in the mouths of the media, I am sure. They must wonder if he is the multifacted stud they saw early, or the perimeter jump shooter they saw late. If Duke has a post presence, unchaining Singler from the low post, he will probably make all ACC as well. But G is more of a known commodity at this point. He is so close to putting it all together. He is on the cusp of dominating, on both sides of the ball, as few players can at this level.

Kedsy

10-28-2008, 11:06 AM

Count me among those who think the pre-season expectations are a tad unreasonable. Sure, G has the potential to do all those things, but calling him a sure first or second team AA or ACC POY is saying everything will fall out with the best possible outcome. That's a lot of pressure and/or expectations to put on a young man with somewhat of an injury history who hasn't entirely lived up to his potential in the past.

How many players have gone from the modest numbers G has shown his first two years to become ACC POY or first team AA? A few, I'm sure, but not that many. Especially ACC POY seems out of reach this year -- whether we like it or not, the Big Travel from Heelville will win that award unless he starts tying his shoelaces together.

G is a great player and will have a great season and Duke should have a great season. The rest is just static, anyway.

Tim1515

10-28-2008, 11:52 AM

Edouble

10-28-2008, 11:54 AM

I’ve been a Duke fan for many years and I cannot recall a player who has received this much preseason hype after just OK freshman/soph seasons. The player who came to my mind was Danny Ferry but Ferry was 2nd team All ACC his sophomore year. Several players have come on strong during their senior year (e.g. Duhon, Carrawell) but they didn’t receive the hype that Henderson is getting.

Duhon was picked as pre-season ACC POY before his junior season, following an OK sophomore season.

roywhite

10-28-2008, 12:53 PM

Hendo and Scheyer are perfect examples of the state of basketball in America. Ask 100 people who the better player is and 99 will tell you Hendo. Maybe he is...his potential is definitely higher based on athletic ability.

IMO Jon is a better defender. No he will not make highlight reel blocks but he will keep his man out of the lane better and he always has a hand in his man's face. Hendo is probably a better off the ball defender due to his blocking ability.

Jon is a better shooter.

Jon is a better ball handler

Jon is a better passer.

Jon is probably even a better rebounder...again Hendo has rebounding potential but Jon has the IQ to be in the right place at the right time.

Interesting comments; I like Scheyer's game a lot, so I won't try to dispute that point by point.

But I think what makes Henderson special is his ability to create his own shot, or create his own opportunity. His quickness and elevation give him an edge over virtually any defender. He is a legitimate "go-to" guy.

Tim1515

10-28-2008, 01:29 PM

Interesting comments; I like Scheyer's game a lot, so I won't try to dispute that point by point.

But I think what makes Henderson special is his ability to create his own shot, or create his own opportunity. His quickness and elevation give him an edge over virtually any defender. He is a legitimate "go-to" guy.

Yeah you're right...scoring is a premium ability...especially in the nba. Hendo has the "potential" to be better then Jon in most areas this year mostly because he's a superior athlete. If he gains the IQ that Jon has he will be an All American this year.

sagegrouse

10-28-2008, 02:08 PM

Count me among those who think the pre-season expectations are a tad unreasonable. Sure, G has the potential to do all those things, but calling him a sure first or second team AA or ACC POY is saying everything will fall out with the best possible outcome. That's a lot of pressure and/or expectations to put on a young man with somewhat of an injury history who hasn't entirely lived up to his potential in the past.

What was interesting in that Gerald was picked to the preseason All-ACC team. I didn't expect that.

So, he has passed the first hurdle -- people are expecting him to do well and win awards. If Duke has a terrific season -- #1 NCAA seed -- then Henderson may well be the Blue Devil that gets everybody's vote and ends up an AA selection. ACC POY is a possibility if Hansbrough doesn't win it. Gerald will certainly will the TV exposure for national awards.

sagegrouse

Faison1

10-28-2008, 02:10 PM

K seems pretty high no him too, which says a lot if you ask me. He isn't one to sugarcoat expectations, whether they're bad or good. IIRC, there have been times when a player was overly hyped, and K has indirectly brought them down a notch through media outlets. Other times, he is obviously excited by the season and potential.

So, since K is excited about G, I can only assume G has more than potential to do something special this year.

ice-9

10-28-2008, 04:10 PM

IMO Jon is a better defender. No he will not make highlight reel blocks but he will keep his man out of the lane better and he always has a hand in his man's face. Hendo is probably a better off the ball defender due to his blocking ability.

It's possible, but not certain.

Jon is a better shooter.

Scheyer is more accurate, but Henderson has a much quicker release. Due to the nature of how we ran our offense last season, Scheyer also had more open shots relative to Henderson.

Jon is a better ball handler

Probably, but only in an incremental manner. Teams won't depend on Scheyer or Henderson to handle the ball extensively so while Scheyer may have the edge on Henderson, it's not an important edge.

Jon is a better passer.

Definitely true, and he's also a better play maker.

Jon is probably even a better rebounder...again Hendo has rebounding potential but Jon has the IQ to be in the right place at the right time.

Not sure why you think this given that Henderson averaged 4.7 rebounds versus Scheyer's 3.9 last season.

As was pointed out, you also neglect to mention Henderson's greatest strength -- his ability to create his own shot. You may be able to make the argument that Scheyer is a better overall player (in terms of weighing strengths vs. weaknesses), but Henderson's specialty -- creating his own shot -- is an important and relatively rare trait, and that makes Gerald on most teams the more valuable player.

BlueintheFace

10-28-2008, 10:47 PM

I think the expectations and projections here are so rampant because Henderson seems to be the biggest unknown quantity among returning players. We know he has all the tools to be an amazing player, but we can't predict how much of a jump he will make from last season to this one. With all of the other players we think we can make reasonable predictions and so we consider them constants and Henderson a variable of sorts.

My personal hope is that in the second half of the season Henderson averages 17 ppg 6 rpg and 3 apg.

I think this would indicate that Henderson has gained the confidence of a go-to guy... which makes us a final four caliber team. (Of course this assumes that Scheyer and Kyle, the constants, project to slightly increased numbers from last year and our centers by committee can play D and rebound. I have no real concerns about the point position).

gw67

10-29-2008, 08:07 AM

Edouble - Your point regarding Duhon is on the mark. Duhon had a good soph season and he was expected to have a very good junior year after being the star on a USA team during the summer between his soph and junior (if my memory is correct). I didn't realize that he was preseason ACC POY but he did not have a particularly good junior year (he was terrible from beyond the 3-point line). He then made amends by having an exceptional senior season.

The posts in this thread are a good sampling. There are posters who rate college players by "pro potential" and "upside" which generally translates to the run/jump ability of the player. Personally, I prefer to rate on basketball skill and actual performance. Those like Grant Hill who have a combination of skill and superior physical talents are special players. I think Henderson can be very good this year but until he actually performs consistently at a high level, he will not be one of the top players in the ACC. I look forward to seeing him play against teams with athletic wings. Nelson more than held his own in those cases and Henderson should do the same.

gw67

ACCBBallFan

10-29-2008, 08:50 AM

Hi,

Do many posters truly see Gerald as the ACC POY? I'd think Tyler is strongly favored at this point.

OTOH, why wouldn't Gerald be expected to be 1st team All ACC at this point in time? I can't name 5 more likely players at this point.

So, I think the only questionable call, at this point, is whether Gerald will be an All American. I certainly think he has the potential and the preseason expectations for Gerald are reasonable.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Here's Gerald's main competition for all-ACC. Seniors often get a subliminal advantage thanks to name recognition.

Though voting is not by position, main candidates in no particular order:

C - Hansbrough, McCauley, Jeff Allen, perhaps McFarland from Wake may make one of the 3 All ACC teams or Honorable Mention.

F - Booker, Costner, Lawal, Singler, Johnson from Wake, Scott from UVA and Dwayne Collins from Miami.

WF - Henderson has plenty of competition from KC Rivers, Danny Green, AD Vassallo, Courtney Fells, James Dews and the Wake frosh Aminu. D'Andre Bell from GA Tech is out for the season.

SG - McClinton, Ellington, Clinch, Scheyer, Teague, Ogelsby, Sanders from BC, Delaney from VA Tech

PG - Lawson, Rice, Vasquez, Douglas, Paulus or Nolan Smith, Ish Smith, and Stitt from Clemson or Calvin Baker from UVA,

So ACC competition if it were by position is very strong everywhere except centers where Tyler is the obvious choice. Very likely both Lawson and rice make the first team. Then throw in Booker or Rivers if Clemson does real well and McClinton and Gerald or Kyle could end up on ACC-2 rather than ACC-1, but strong arguments for ACC-1 too.

It will not be an easy task to narrow this down to 15 for first 3 All-ACC Teams. Gerald and Kyle will be 2 of the 15 but not automatic first team like Hansbrough, but still potentially ACC-1.

Jeffrey

10-29-2008, 11:11 AM

Here's Gerald's main competition for all-ACC. Seniors often get a subliminal advantage thanks to name recognition.

Though voting is not by position, main candidates in no particular order:

C - Hansbrough, McCauley, Jeff Allen, perhaps McFarland from Wake may make one of the 3 All ACC teams or Honorable Mention.

F - Booker, Costner, Lawal, Singler, Johnson from Wake, Scott from UVA and Dwayne Collins from Miami.

WF - Henderson has plenty of competition from KC Rivers, Danny Green, AD Vassallo, Courtney Fells, James Dews and the Wake frosh Aminu. D'Andre Bell from GA Tech is out for the season.

SG - McClinton, Ellington, Clinch, Scheyer, Teague, Ogelsby, Sanders from BC, Delaney from VA Tech

PG - Lawson, Rice, Vasquez, Douglas, Paulus or Nolan Smith, Ish Smith, and Stitt from Clemson or Calvin Baker from UVA,

So ACC competition if it were by position is very strong everywhere except centers where Tyler is the obvious choice. Very likely both Lawson and rice make the first team. Then throw in Booker or Rivers if Clemson does real well and McClinton and Gerald or Kyle could end up on ACC-2 rather than ACC-1, but strong arguments for ACC-1 too.

It will not be an easy task to narrow this down to 15 for first 3 All-ACC Teams. Gerald and Kyle will be 2 of the 15 but not automatic first team like Hansbrough, but still potentially ACC-1.

Hi,

At this point in time, it appears Duke will be the second best team in the ACC and top 10 in the nation. Usually the second best team (if they're top 10 in the nation) gets at least one player on the ACC-1 team. Correct?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

KandG

10-29-2008, 11:31 AM

G has the potential to be a superstar. Outside of the Freshman in the ACC, he is the only potential NBA superstar that I really see in the ACC. His physical gifts are in the upper echelon of the NBA, to say nothing of college.

With all due respect, this seems a bit hyperbolic to me. I have high expectations for Gerald, but unless he grew three or four inches and substantially improved his ballhandling and general playmaking...to say he has "upper echelon" NBA skills is really stretching it.

I was very encouraged by the way he came on at the end of last season. But teams will be keying on him now. I'm curious to see whether he's improved in the areas he needed to and can leverage his skills within the context of an offense that really moves the ball, or whether he will be more of a "heads-down" create your shot guy where ball movement largely stops once he gets it (like Markie).

He's still going to be worth watching this season and I can't wait, but I think there are some reasonable questions being posed in this thread about what his ceiling is, and how reasonable the expectations are.

Dukiedevil

10-29-2008, 12:19 PM

One of the main reasons people have heightened expectations is that something clicked right around the time he injured his wrist. Much to my surprise (and others), his court vision seemed to improve and he became a much better playmaker at the end of the year. Court vision is not something that typically improves, so my guess is that he always had it and K's system just finally clicked for him. That's a very good indicator to me that the game has slowed down for him and a reason for the heightened expectations. What remains to be seen is how he reacts to the pressure of these heightened expectations and if he develops the killer instinct (and slight nasty streak) needed for a go-to guy.

ncexnyc

10-29-2008, 12:27 PM

I'm not sure Hasbro is a lock for ACC POY. I believe he will get a serious dose of overexposure backlash. That, plus the fact that his game or lack of one was on display for all to see during last year's Kansas beatdown.

Hasbro enjoyed a distinct physical advantage over most of his ACC counterparts due to his age, but while he has reached his physical peak, people like Allen and Booker are now catching up to him or more likely surpassing him. Yes, he can add some refinements to his game, but I don't think he'll get all those cheap baskets he did last year, nor will he reap those cheap foul calls he benifited from.

Kedsy

10-29-2008, 01:10 PM

Yes, he can add some refinements to his game, but I don't think he'll get all those cheap baskets he did last year, nor will he reap those cheap foul calls he benifited from.

I can't stand the guy, but he will get the cheap baskets and he will get the calls. He even got those calls in the Kansas game; it just didn't help so much.

Also, to be fair, not all those cheap baskets are truly cheap. The guy hustles for inside position and loose balls more than anybody else.

Wander

10-29-2008, 01:19 PM

I expect Henderson to introduce the three-point dunk shot to college basketball.

Kedsy

10-29-2008, 01:31 PM

I expect Henderson to introduce the three-point dunk shot to college basketball.

I once saw Eddie Jones (Temple) take off from what looked like one step inside the 3-point line and dunk, and the question we were asking in the stands was if he had left the ground a few feet further back would it have counted three points?

But with the new line, even G would have a hard time getting there.

Diddy

10-29-2008, 01:39 PM

With all due respect, this seems a bit hyperbolic to me. I have high expectations for Gerald, but unless he grew three or four inches and substantially improved his ballhandling and general playmaking...to say he has "upper echelon" NBA skills is really stretching it.

I was very encouraged by the way he came on at the end of last season. But teams will be keying on him now. I'm curious to see whether he's improved in the areas he needed to and can leverage his skills within the context of an offense that really moves the ball, or whether he will be more of a "heads-down" create your shot guy where ball movement largely stops once he gets it (like Markie).

He's still going to be worth watching this season and I can't wait, but I think there are some reasonable questions being posed in this thread about what his ceiling is, and how reasonable the expectations are.

I never said anything about NBA "Skills." We all acknowledge that his basketball skills need to be polished. I was refrerring to G's athleticism only. His ability to run and jump are phenomenal. In those areas alone he is in the upper echelon of the NBA right now. There are not a lot of guys that can run as fast, jump as high, or move as quickly laterally as G. It is not that he is a better athlete than most guys in the ACC. Its that he is a significantly better athlete than most of the guys in the ACC. Head and shoulders better athlete.

For all the talk of basketball skill or basketball IQ that we love to spout here on the DBR board, those skills don't necessarily mean much. During JJ's reign, few players had anywhere near his skill or IQ. But vastly superior athletes were able to slow him down, or even shut him down, on occaision. Whatever some people think G lacks in IQ or skills (which I don't completely buy), his physical gifts will allow him to overcome those weaknesses.

And I would love to see him put his head down and go to the rim on occaision. He isn't Demarcus. He will be able to finish at the rim better than D-Marc. His athleicism is off the charts. If he is even 70% as "skilled" as Scheyer, G will have a monster season.

Sometimes a guy is just that athletic. He is able to use that athleticism to overcome many minor faults. It may not be popular, but it may be the truth.

Wander

10-29-2008, 01:43 PM

I once saw Eddie Jones (Temple) take off from what looked like one step inside the 3-point line and dunk, and the question we were asking in the stands was if he had left the ground a few feet further back would it have counted three points?

I don't see why it wouldn't be. But you're right, it won't ever happen now with the 3 point line moving back...

On a slightly more serious note, one of the most important stats of these exhibition games to me is that G's 12-12 on free throws.

gw67

10-29-2008, 02:03 PM

Diddy,

As I pointed out when I started this thread, I like Henderson as a player and expect him to have a very good year. You are certainly entitled to your opinion and it appears to be similar to that of a couple of my sons. I question a few of your points. First, Henderson is a very good athlete but there are a bunch of exceptional athletes in the NBA. In any case, college basketball isn't the same as the 24-second game and players like Rose and other top players in recent years have had great basketball skills. Second, your putdown of Redick wasn't necessary and the fact that he is the all time points leader in the ACC is a testament to the importance of basketball skills. Last, Henderson has been a great athlete for two full seasons and he hasn't averaged 10 ppg because he hasn't had the skills to match his athleticism. I think all Duke fans hope/anticipate that Henderson makes a signifcant improvement in his play this year and leads the Devils to a terrific season.

gw67

sagegrouse

10-29-2008, 02:18 PM

WRT Gerald, he may have had greater skills than he showed his first 1.5 years. It may have been a matter of confidence. Certainly he did not arrive at Duke with the swagger of a star. Reference Heyman, Gminski, Laettner, Hill, Brand, JWill and JJ.

FWIW, Hill's swagger was very stylish and, therefore, often overlooked. Re JJ: my most vivid memory of his freshman year was when he absolutely torched NC State in the ACC finals at Greensboro.

sagegrouse

SupaDave

10-29-2008, 03:32 PM

I don't see why it wouldn't be. But you're right, it won't ever happen now with the 3 point line moving back...

On a slightly more serious note, one of the most important stats of these exhibition games to me is that G's 12-12 on free throws.

The ball has to be RELEASED behind the line. Jumping in the air means nothing.

SupaDave

10-29-2008, 03:35 PM

FWIW, Hill's swagger was very stylish and, therefore, often overlooked. Re JJ: my most vivid memory of his freshman year was when he absolutely torched NC State in the ACC finals at Greensboro.

sagegrouse

An overlooked stylish swagger? I don't think so. Grant had TONS of articles written on him his freshmen year and afterward. Everything ranging from his mother's relationship with H. Clinton to his father's professional career. He was highly lauded as a great athlete with great parenting and billed as one of the NBA's future top pitchmen...

Kedsy

10-29-2008, 03:38 PM

The ball has to be RELEASED behind the line. Jumping in the air means nothing.

But that's not entirely true, is it? If you have one foot slightly over the line and you jump backwards and release behind the line, it's a two, not a three. And sometimes a guy will jump up from behind the line, shoot, and land inside the line and it's called a three, and I've never noticed the refs looking at his release point (and I've never heard any announcer talking about it, which is not conclusive but may be suggestive). They always seem to be watching where his feet are when he goes up to shoot.

Does anyone know the precise rule?