Seth Davis breaks us down

[CameronBornAndBred]

Nothing really new, but it's a good read and assessment (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/seth_davis/10/26/duke.postcard/index.html) of what he saw at one of our practices and where he thinks the season might lead.

[RainingThrees]

Just beat me to it. I truly believe we can contend for a title this year. It all depends on the frontcourt.

[BD80]

Great quote:


,,, no other coach emphasizes communication quite as much as Krzyzewski does. ...

... I've heard other coaches describe certain players as quiet types who lead by example. At Duke, they have a special place for such types. It's called the bench.

[mgtr]

Interesting that he pretty well summarizes what many have been saying on this board. Not a whole lot to disagree with.

[Huh?]

No sh*t Seth! Good article though, I'm stoked for this season, can it start already!!!!!

[Ders24]

I had the opportunity to attend the same practice as him, and had many similar thoughts to what he wrote (which, as people have already said echos what a lot have said on the board). I'm ready for a real game now.

[BlueintheFace]

Shhhhh Seth. Don't tell anybody. I'd like for people to look around in february and say... "holy cow, how is Duke #1 right now... oh well, it doesn't matter. UNC is still the better team." Ideally, Duke goes about their business quietly and with building confidence all season long while Carolina gets all the attention no matter the ranking.

[phaedrus]

Shhhhh Seth. Don't tell anybody. I'd like for people to look around in february and say... "holy cow, how is Duke #1 right now... oh well, it doesn't matter. UNC is still the better team." Ideally, Duke goes about their business quietly and with building confidence all season long while Carolina gets all the attention no matter the ranking.

That pretty much happened last year. Remember how that turned out.

This team needs to win in March. You were off by a month.

[davekay1971]

Shhhhh Seth. Don't tell anybody. I'd like for people to look around in february and say... "holy cow, how is Duke #1 right now... oh well, it doesn't matter. UNC is still the better team." Ideally, Duke goes about their business quietly and with building confidence all season long while Carolina gets all the attention no matter the ranking.

Even better - let Duke win the ACC tournament, still somehow get the #2 seed in the Indianapolis region, the site of former Duke glory (while Carolina gets the 1 seed in Boston). Duke then marches into the Final Four as absolutely no one's pick to win the title.

Best of all - let Duke march to a highly unexpected perfect season capped off with a 40 point drubbing of the 'Holes in the championship game. Dare to dream, I say...

[BlueintheFace]

Even better - let Duke win the ACC tournament, still somehow get the #2 seed in the Indianapolis region, the site of former Duke glory (while Carolina gets the 1 seed in Boston). Duke then marches into the Final Four as absolutely no one's pick to win the title.

Best of all - let Duke march to a highly unexpected perfect season capped off with a 40 point drubbing of the 'Holes in the championship game. Dare to dream, I say...

I'll settle for a win at home over Carolina and a trip to the second weekend in March right now... but ask me again in January

[watzone]

Interesting that he pretty well summarizes what many have been saying on this board. Not a whole lot to disagree with.

I haven't seen Seth at any of the practices;) What better way to learn about Duke than on this message board? Just kiddin' The bottom line is that the season is near and it's pretty clear that Duke is in pretty good shape. It seems he likes Miles Plumlee - thank goodness he chose Duke.

[BD80]

Interesting take on McClure. Seth says he will be our "glue guy" and will take minutes from a much improved Lance. If Dave has recovered from his injuries, I do see him logging key minutes because of his defense and his understanding of the game. I can see him coming in to stop a hot scorer or to help if there have been defensive breakdowns.

Duke's greatest runs come from stifling team defense, and McClure just understands what Coach K is looking for. With Gerald and Kyle, we shouldn't have a whole lot of trouble generating offense, even with Dave not being an offensive force. He is good at running an offense, knowing where to set a pick and when and where to make a pass/ Maybe he comes in with Greg, so they tend to balance their strengths and weaknesses.

[mr. synellinden]

I find it interesting that in two internet pages of what was a very good pre-season assessment of where Duke stands, there was almost nothing on Kyle Singler. It's nice to hear that Smith has improved so much and is in line to start at PG and it's also great to hear that Plumlee is even better than expected at this point in his young career. But I will say with a lot of confidence that Singler will be our best and most important player this year, and when we look back on the season next April, there won't be much of a doubt about that. I think a first team All-ACC, and one of the top 3 AA teams season is in store for him.

[COYS]

I find it interesting that in two internet pages of what was a very good pre-season assessment of where Duke stands, there was almost nothing on Kyle Singler. It's nice to hear that Smith has improved so much and is in line to start at PG and it's also great to hear that Plumlee is even better than expected at this point in his young career. But I will say with a lot of confidence that Singler will be our best and most important player this year, and when we look back on the season next April, there won't be much of a doubt about that. I think a first team All-ACC, and one of the top 3 AA teams season is in store for him.

So true. I'm actually a little surprised that G was picked over Singler for first team all ACC. Even if he hasn't improved at all from last year in terms of skill, the fact that he will have more help in the post and will have a year's experience is enough to see him have a better year. Add in the improvements he's made to his inside game, his shot, and his improved conditioning/strength, and I think you've got a perfect recipe for first team all ACC honors and at least third team AA. G certainly has the potential to explode this year, as well, but I think Singler's got just as good of a shot to wow the national media. He's definitely got the ability to carry the team. Of course, two all Americans would be the best option ;).

[BlueintheFace]

no mention of Jordan Davidson either... lame

[Carlos]

It's pretty clear that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo:

Here's is my breakdown of the Blue Devils:

Heart and soul: Scheyer. I'm not just saying this because Scheyer is a fellow MOT (that is, a Member of the Tribe -- and boy, can he spin a dreidel.) Scheyer has great size and savvy, he is a solid perimeter defender, and he is the best leader among Duke's three main guys. Last year, Scheyer was the first player off the bench, and he still ranked third on the team in minutes (28.3) and was fourth in scoring (11.7 ppg while converting 38.8 percent from three-point range and 88.9 percent from the foul line). When Duke needs a big shot this season, more often than not Scheyer will be the one taking it.

Heck, toss in a mention about Scheyer being a lock for the NBA and I'd go beyond saying that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo, I'd say that Seth Davis is Jumbo.

BTW, the best line from the article:


At Duke, the players are required to talk to each other even during the most basic drills. If they relax a little bit, Krzyzewski will step in and remind them to keep up their vocal energy. I've heard other coaches describe certain players as quiet types who lead by example. At Duke, they have a special place for such types. It's called the bench.

[roywhite]

Jon Scheyer, MOT...best such since Bob Fleischer?

All-time Duke MOT---Art Heyman

Not sure I can think of others...

[watzone]

It's pretty clear that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo:


Heck, toss in a mention about Scheyer being a lock for the NBA and I'd go beyond saying that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo, I'd say that Seth Davis is Jumbo.

My inside sources say you're on to something;) I thought the reference to being right in his previous twenty questions article was just a tad like the need for props in a recent thread about two new starters. Does this mean we officially welcome either or to the board? Nahhh, it can't be.

Serious question. Wasn't Seth on the Chron staff that rated K's players? I thought of that when he emphasized the "F" bombs.

[MChambers]

It's pretty clear that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo:

Heck, toss in a mention about Scheyer being a lock for the NBA and I'd go beyond saying that Seth Davis has been talking to Jumbo, I'd say that Seth Davis is Jumbo.


Anybody ever seen Jumbo and Seth together? I thought not.

Rumor confirmed!

[BlueintheFace]

Anybody ever seen Jumbo and Seth together? I thought not.

Rumor confirmed!

Does anybody have a ballpark figure on how many people have been confirmed as Jumbo's true identity?

[Indoor66]

367...

[ACCBBallFan]

Interesting take on McClure. Seth says he will be our "glue guy" and will take minutes from a much improved Lance. If Dave has recovered from his injuries, I do see him logging key minutes because of his defense and his understanding of the game. I can see him coming in to stop a hot scorer or to help if there have been defensive breakdowns.

Duke's greatest runs come from stifling team defense, and McClure just understands what Coach K is looking for. With Gerald and Kyle, we shouldn't have a whole lot of trouble generating offense, even with Dave not being an offensive force. He is good at running an offense, knowing where to set a pick and when and where to make a pass/ Maybe he comes in with Greg, so they tend to balance their strengths and weaknesses.

Good article but I disagree with Seth on these last couple of paragraphs:

"Lost in the shuffle: Thomas. This was a tough choice between Thomas and Zoubek, especially after hearing Krzyzewski's praise for Thomas. But the reality is, Zoubek is 7-1, and though he'll never be mistaken for a ballet dancer, his size alone probably dictates some playing time. Krzyzewski usually shortens his bench to seven or eight players towards the end of the season, and with Singler, Plumlee, McClure and Zoubek in the fold, Thomas could find himself with fewer minutes than he would hope for at this stage of his career.

Bottom line: I know that every program feels flush with optimism this time of year, but once again I came away from a practice believing the team I had watched was better than I anticipated. The main reason is Plumlee -- not because he's the second coming of Bill Russell, but because he gives Duke a dimension it hasn't had the last two years. That, plus all the experience now in the lineup, should be enough to get Duke into the Elite Eight if the Blue Devils stay healthy. If Henderson emerges as an All-America candidate, you'll see Duke in Detroit"

I acutally think after Olek it is probably Dave McClure who is lost in the shuffle.

Blue team would be even less competitive with Dave on its Offense. Hence as pointed out earlier in article, Dave always played sub for White team which plays to his versatility and 5 years in the Duke system, and keeps the Blue team homogenous.

PG: Nolan/Greg
SG: Jon/Marty
WF: G/Elliott/Dave
SF: Kyle/Lance/Dave
C: Plumlee/Z/Dave

That second team is not too shabby but would really rely on Greg hitting from outside or Marty/Elliott taking it to the rim, which is not an easy task vs. Jon/G as it will be vs. most opponents.

If they had anybody close to Kyle's offense which is not Lance or Dave but could be Miles if he were not the starting center, Blue can compete as happened in second half of B/W with Nolan/Greg in opposite roles, and Lance on White.

I do agree with Seth Davis that Z is in the ultimate 7-9 man rotation as Greg surely is to get to 7.

The 8th would be winner of Elliott/Marty sweepstakes and either along with Jon could be an adequate thrid string PG.

Lance/Dave would vie for #9 and may in fact alternate in that role with Dave the third string post defender behind Miles/Z and Lance the third string forward behind Kyle/Miles.

PG: Nolan/Greg
SG: Jon/(Marty/Elliott)
WF: G/(Elliott/Dave)
SF: Kyle/Miles/Lance
C: Miles/Z/Dave

[devildeac]

Anybody ever seen Jumbo and Seth together? I thought not.

Rumor confirmed!

This stuff is too confusing. Nobody has ever seen Jumbo and Bob Knight together so we "concluded" a month or so ago that Jumbo was The General. Next, someone mentioned they had never seen Jumbo and K together so we arrive at another "conclusion" that Jumbo is K. Now, Seth Davis? When will all this madness end:rolleyes::eek:? I think last year we "concluded" Jumbo was John Schreier's (spelling is NOT correct) dad. OMG!

[mgtr]

Sooo, Jumbo has the ability to cloud men's minds -- The Shadow!

[killerleft]

The obvious way to get the skinny on Jumbo is to ask the man who knows and does all... Patrick Davidson!

[The Gordog]

Good article but I disagree with Seth on these last couple of paragraphs:

"Lost in the shuffle: Thomas. This was a tough choice between Thomas and Zoubek, especially after hearing Krzyzewski's praise for Thomas. But the reality is, Zoubek is 7-1, and though he'll never be mistaken for a ballet dancer, his size alone probably dictates some playing time. Krzyzewski usually shortens his bench to seven or eight players towards the end of the season, and with Singler, Plumlee, McClure and Zoubek in the fold, Thomas could find himself with fewer minutes than he would hope for at this stage of his career.

Bottom line: I know that every program feels flush with optimism this time of year, but once again I came away from a practice believing the team I had watched was better than I anticipated. The main reason is Plumlee -- not because he's the second coming of Bill Russell, but because he gives Duke a dimension it hasn't had the last two years. That, plus all the experience now in the lineup, should be enough to get Duke into the Elite Eight if the Blue Devils stay healthy. If Henderson emerges as an All-America candidate, you'll see Duke in Detroit"

I acutally think after Olek it is probably Dave McClure who is lost in the shuffle.

Blue team would be even less competitive with Dave on its Offense. Hence as pointed out earlier in article, Dave always played sub for White team which plays to his versatility and 5 years in the Duke system, and keeps the Blue team homogenous.

PG: Nolan/Greg
SG: Jon/Marty
WF: G/Elliott/Dave
SF: Kyle/Lance/Dave
C: Plumlee/Z/Dave

That second team is not too shabby but would really rely on Greg hitting from outside or Marty/Elliott taking it to the rim, which is not an easy task vs. Jon/G as it will be vs. most opponents.

If they had anybody close to Kyle's offense which is not Lance or Dave but could be Miles if he were not the starting center, Blue can compete as happened in second half of B/W with Nolan/Greg in opposite roles, and Lance on White.

I do agree with Seth Davis that Z is in the ultimate 7-9 man rotation as Greg surely is to get to 7.

The 8th would be winner of Elliott/Marty sweepstakes and either along with Jon could be an adequate thrid string PG.

Lance/Dave would vie for #9 and may in fact alternate in that role with Dave the third string post defender behind Miles/Z and Lance the third string forward behind Kyle/Miles.

PG: Nolan/Greg
SG: Jon/(Marty/Elliott)
WF: G/(Elliott/Dave)
SF: Kyle/Miles/Lance
C: Miles/Z/Dave

I think you are wrong about Dave. He shut down G in the B/W game second half, that's why Blue won that game. When he is in there with Nolan their D creates fast break O.

I think Lance and Elliot will get little PT unless there are injuries or vast improvement from Elliot.

By the start of ACC season I predict

G: Jon(33mpg)/Nolan(25)/Greg(22)
SF: G(33)/Marty(7)
PF: Kyle(33)/Dave(7)
C: MP1(26)/Z(14)

In Nov. and Dec. Z will see less time and Lance more. Elliot will get a lot more chances against inferior competition but less later.

[Bob Green]

By the start of ACC season I predict

G: Jon(33mpg)/Nolan(25)/Greg(22)
SF: G(33)/Marty(7)
PF: Kyle(33)/Dave(7)
C: MP1(26)/Z(14)

In Nov. and Dec. Z will see less time and Lance more. Elliot will get a lot more chances against inferior competition but less later.

Your prediction indicates zero minutes for Lance Thomas and Elliot Williams "by the start of the ACC season." Seeing as Coach K praised Lance Thomas' defensive energy after the B/W game, I disagree with your mpg breakdown. Thomas' defensive skills align with Coach K's desire to utilize full court pressure so he will play during ACC games. Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler will not all average 30+ mpg. Fortunately, the season is almost here and we will all see the team in action soon.

[sagegrouse]

I think you are wrong about Dave. He shut down G in the B/W game second half, that's why Blue won that game. When he is in there with Nolan their D creates fast break O.

I think Lance and Elliot will get little PT unless there are injuries or vast improvement from Elliot.

By the start of ACC season I predict

G: Jon(33mpg)/Nolan(25)/Greg(22)
SF: G(33)/Marty(7)
PF: Kyle(33)/Dave(7)
C: MP1(26)/Z(14)

In Nov. and Dec. Z will see less time and Lance more. Elliot will get a lot more chances against inferior competition but less later.

While I believe, truly believe, in K's extraordinary abilities as a coach, there is still something called style. And I believe K's preferred style is to have a team of 6-4 to 6-8 players who can run like the wind and who can all shoot, pass, defend and dive on the floor. Consider K's Olympic team, esp. when Chris Bosh was in the lieup.

On the current roster, LT is the center of that team. I think he will see lots of playing time this year.

And while I am flabbergasted that MP1 has apparently earned the right to start, I still do not think that over a full season he will get the lion's share of minutes in the post.

sagegrouse
'Still, kudos to Miles. I mean, how many people on this board dismissed him as a taller version of Emily Waner, serving as a companion for his more talented brothers? ["Your honor, I resemble that remark."]'

[Kedsy]

While I believe, truly believe, in K's extraordinary abilities as a coach, there is still something called style. And I believe K's preferred style is to have a team of 6-4 to 6-8 players who can run like the wind and who can all shoot, pass, defend and dive on the floor. Consider K's Olympic team, esp. when Chris Bosh was in the lieup.

On the current roster, LT is the center of that team. I think he will see lots of playing time this year.

And while I am flabbergasted that MP1 has apparently earned the right to start, I still do not think that over a full season he will get the lion's share of minutes in the post.


From what we're hearing, MP1 (while perhaps not being between 6'4" and 6'8") can run, shoot, pass, and defend. Presumably he can dive, too. I agree with you that Lance will play decent minutes, but if the early advances on Miles are true, he'll play a lot, too.

And we've been through this ad nauseum but, because I agree with you I have my doubts that Brian Zoubek will see too many minutes. He just can't move and run as well as Thomas and Plumlee. Time will tell, I suppose.

[mgtr]

By the start of ACC season I predict

G: Jon(33mpg)/Nolan(25)/Greg(22)
SF: G(33)/Marty(7)
PF: Kyle(33)/Dave(7)
C: MP1(26)/Z(14)

In Nov. and Dec. Z will see less time and Lance more. Elliot will get a lot more chances against inferior competition but less later.

I don't disagree very much with your player selection, but I doubt seriously that any player will average 33 MPG "by the start of the ACC season." I think Lance will get some minutes early in the season, and then we will see what happens.

[DukieInBrasil]

I thought Davis´props to McClure were a bit strange, welcome though. Dave has kinda gotten lost in the press or simply overshadowed. I too have overlooked him lately. I´t is not clear how healthy he was last year, so my expectations for him this year are quite fuzzy (the ideas, not him). I hope he is able to have a glorious Sr. year.

[jimsumner]

I keep making these logical assessments of Duke's probable '08-'09 rotation and they don't include McClure. Too small to play the 4, not quick enough to play the 3, can't shoot, yada, yada, yada.

But then I watch him play. He's so smart, he works so hard, he does absolutely everything the coaches ask him to do, and he just makes his team better in so many little ways. So, I don't see how you keep him from playing.

Having too many good players certainly is a better situation than having too few. But there are only 200 player-minutes to go around and it will be most interesting to see how they are allocated. And McClure is the last person I can think of to go diva on us.

So we'll see.

[ACCBBallFan]

To Coach K's credit, he has said positive things about all his guys, how much Z was missed last year and its impact on Kyle, how well Lance has practiced so far, how much promise Miles has, etc.

With respect to what I think is a battle between Lance/Dave for fourth big behind Kyle, Miles and Brian:

Lance and Dave are both decent players and have a lot of the same positivies as well as the same negatives, namely size and Offense. Key point though is they play Singler's position and are much less equipped than Miles or Z to play the other big spot.

IMO, playing them is more playing to not lose than playing to win. They will each play some, but it will be situational and often one in lieu of the other.

But K is a master at leveraging the positives and avoiding the negatives. For Dave he is truly a glue guy, as Jim Sumner says is always in the proper position, and I give him the edge as the third post defender for that best rebounder skill set.

Lance is underconfident as a 5 but has the potential to be a very decent 4 man behind Kyle, as people thought he would be the year before Kyle arrived., until coach K like every coach ultimately has to decide to shorten the rotation and possibly go more with Miles as backup 4 teamed with Z while Kyle gets a brief rest. Miles Plumlee has more size and apparently more Offense, if he can stay out of foul trouble.

With both Zoubek and Miles likely to get whistled a lot, both Dave and Lance could see some decent minutes backing up the top 3 bigs, until ACC finals and NCAA when they may see a little less, until fouls mount up, and they probably will vs. the better competition in those venues.

Great guys to have on the team though as Duke can evey day conduct a competitive 5 vs. 5 scrimmage even when a guy or two needs a breather, or is injured or otherwise unavailable.

So Lance/Dave for the bigs as Elliott/Marty are for the smalls, great insurance but not likely to be in top 7 of Nolan-Greg-Jon-G-Kyle-Miles-Z.

[ACCBBallFan]

With Duke having so much other talent at the 2-3-4 with Jon-G-Kyle and the virtual PG slot with Nolan/Greg, for most of the season up until the very end, it is not really going to matter a whole lot other than margin of victory how much Lance or Dave or Miles or Zoubek plays, nor how much Elliott or Marty plays.

So all the more reason for no one to play 30 MPG and to do the Obama and spread the wealth.

Of course if Olek or Steve Johnson or Jordan Davidson play, in one sense that's good and in another not enough true competition to make the event as worthwhile as a practice scrimmage, other than giving the starters and main reserves someone different to face.

[Devilsfan]

Dave could be the "glue guy" if he ever gets a pass from MSG in his freshman year, in my opinion. Back in July Wojo spoke to fans in Vegas and gave props to every upperclassmen by name except you guessed it. Being punished for not staying in Durham this summer? I hope not.

[wojcol]

I believe Carlos and Watzone are on to something. Jumbo wants badly to be an insider. Seth speaks very highly of Plumlee a kid he staunchly stated would never be at Duke.
Welcome Seth, .......... I mean Jumbo.