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Jumbo
10-21-2008, 01:42 AM
When last we left our heroes, they were trapped in Phase VI, which oddly resembled a collapsed mine shaft. It's been a long time since then. Two cast members left for different reasons. Others nursed wounds. Three fresh faces joined the show. Now, the wait is over. Stay tuned for the season premiere of everyone's favorite DBR series with Phase O: The Exhibition season ...


Wow. That was lame.

Glad to be back, though. So, what the heck is Phase O (zero) anyway? It's the brief period before the real games start. So, we'll say it ends after the last exhibition game, Nov. 5. (That also means I got started late. Sue me.) Here's what we hope to learn through the next couple of weeks of practice and the exhibition games.


So, who's got the point?
Is Paulus vs. Smith a legit battle? It certainly appears that way. Here's what we know:
-No matter who starts, both guys will play a lot.
-Paulus is the better shooter.
-Smith is the better defender.
-Paulus is a senior.
-Smith is a sophomore.
-Paulus has light brown hair that is silky smooth to the human touch.
-Smith has clean-brushed teeth that glimmer in the October sun.
-DBR posters have the ability to turn this thread into yet another Paulus vs. Smith debate.
-If the DBR posters do that, I'll bust a cap ... errrr ... kinder/gentler, sorry.
Here's what we don't know: What K wants most out of the PG spot this year. Neither guy is actually suited to run an offense in the purest sense. In fact, I imagine most of the playmaking duties will fall on Scheyer, Henderson and Singler in different ways (more on that later). Freed from some responsibility for always initiating the offense, what's more important, Paulus' shooting, Smith's D, or some other, harder-to-read factors? Regardless, it's a good sign that Smith is pushing a three-year starter. Duke will need both guys this year.

And how about the middle?
Now here's a real mess. The good news: Duke has lots of options. The bad news: None of those options is really proven. I don't think it will matter at all who starts. Plumlee and Zoubek will both play, and I doubt either will exceed 15 mpg. Thomas will get some time at the 5, too. Czyz and McClure, playing next to Singler, could pick up scraps.
I also don't expect much out of this spot. Duke has an excellent offensive team, one that can put up plenty of points without running a single play for the 5. No one has to be a low-post scorer -- I expect Singler to do more of that and, actually, Henderson. We just need solid rebounding and defense, and not just against opposing post players, but in the ability to show and recover, switch on screens, etc., to aid Duke's ball pressure.
So, can any of those guys step up and provide those qualities on a consistent basis? And, if not, can Duke get a solid game from at least one of the three on a given night?

Speaking of Plumlee, are the freshmen ready to contribute?
We'll have to wait and see, but I'll make educated guesses:
-Plumlee: Yes, in the role defined above.
-Williams: Yes, as a solid reserve on the wing, mostly as a defender.
-Czyz: No.

And speaking of Williams, will there be legit competition with Pocius for the 5th perimeter spot?
In tight games, K isn't going to play six perimeter players, especially since Scheyer and Henderson will play upwards of 30 minutes. Plus, you know Smith and Paulus will play a bit together. That leaves a spot for one more guy. Williams probably has the leg up, given the way K values defense. But will Marty get a legit shot? And will he have improved enough in his weak areas (D, ball-handling, general calmness on the court) to allow his natural scoring ability to shine? If nothing else, those should be some fun practice battles.

Will everyone freak out when Olek Czyz is the new Pocius?
He's not going to play much this year. I really, really hope everyone can remain patient with him. He has a lot to learn.

How good is the Singler-Henderson-Scheyer trio?
Really good. Way better than the national media realizes. Probably better than most of this board realizes, too. I expect Singler to play far less 5 and be a huge matchup problem at the 4. We all saw him wear down late last season and become little more than a jump shooter. In the process, we forgot how versatile he is, that he can score off the dribble, that he has real post moves, that he is a tenacious rebounder. I expect a big season out of him.
Gerald learned a lot from his wrist injury, I think. I expect a better-rounded player. He finished last season with areas that still demanded improvement (On-ball D, perimeter shooting, ball-handling and court vision). But I think he'll have even more confidence and, in a funny way, will benefit from Nelson's departure.
And Scheyer? Well, I think he deserves his own topic.

When is everyone going to realize how good Jon Scheyer is?
Beats me. I've been shouting this from the rooftops for two years already. Still, not enough people around here realize how talented he is. Some people still seem to think he struggles defensively (cough .. because he's white), even though he locks downs wings off the ball and does a good job of staying in front of his man on the ball. He is Duke's best playmaker and passer, and I expect him to initiate more of the offense than either "point guard." He might end up being Duke's most valuable player this year. Yeah, I said it.

Is there a role for Dave McClure?
TBD. I expect him to play situationally. But let's see what the preseason tells us.

How will added size and experience manifest itself?
This team doesn't have excuses. Duke has enough bigs to compete, more depth than just about any team in the country and (finally) several upperclassmen in the rotation. If this doesn't make Duke way more confident than the past couple of years, I don't know what will.

So, how will the team handle heightened expectations?
I think they'll play with an edge. And I think the expectaions are deserved. This team can compete with anyone in the country. Anyone. I'm betting that's manifesting itself every day in practice, and will become apparent in the two exhibition games.

Can you just end this post already?
Sure.

CameronCrazy'11
10-21-2008, 02:21 AM
Wow, great and thorough post. Dead on.

I've believed for awhile that Jon Scheyer is our most underrated player. He's a real glue who plays an incredibly unselfish brand of basketball. I believe he could have easily scored an extra 5 or so a game last year (see Miami) but chose to defer more to other guys.

I think people look at recent white Duke guard like Paulus or Redick and assume that every white gurad who suits up for Duke will be a great shooter with a great basketball mind, but not very athletic, and struggle getting in the lane and defending on the ball. However in Scheyer's case, it's just not true. Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler are the best 2-4 combination anyone has this year.

For the post, I like a tag team of Plumlee and Zoubek to play alongside Singler. These guys can both rebound, defend an opposing center, and score well enough that defenders have to guard them. If one of these two emerges as a a real talent, we're almost certainly going to the final four.

I'm not really sure what to make of Thomas. He doesn't seem as clunky as Zoubek on the court, but what does he really do? Last year, he scored less per minute than anyone but McClure (a defensive role player). His rebounding is more what you'd expect from a point or a shooting guard than from a starting center. Perhaps worst of all, a lot of the time he was in, Singler still had to guard the other team's 5, which largely defeats the purpose of playing 2 bigs instead of 4 guards. Maybe he'd be better backing up Singler at the 4, but I'm not really sure how he fits in.

SMO
10-21-2008, 08:43 AM
"Will everyone freak out when Olek Czyz is the new Pocius?
He's not going to play much this year. I really, really hope everyone can remain patient with him. He has a lot to learn."

Or would that make him the new Taylor King? I can't wait for this to begin!

Wander
10-21-2008, 08:48 AM
Scheyer-Henderson-Singler are more than just really good. They're the single best trio in between point and center out of the 300-whatever teams in the country.

RepoMan
10-21-2008, 09:30 AM
I'm not really sure what to make of Thomas. He doesn't seem as clunky as Zoubek on the court, but what does he really do? Last year, he scored less per minute than anyone but McClure (a defensive role player). His rebounding is more what you'd expect from a point or a shooting guard than from a starting center. Perhaps worst of all, a lot of the time he was in, Singler still had to guard the other team's 5, which largely defeats the purpose of playing 2 bigs instead of 4 guards. Maybe he'd be better backing up Singler at the 4, but I'm not really sure how he fits in.

First, thanks to Jumbo. I really enjoyed these posts last year, and this gets me in the right frame of mind for the season. I truly can't wait.

Obviously, Jumbo hits the main questions (the 1 and the 5) right at the top. I'm not to worried about the point guard situation because however it plays out, I think we will have good options and the ability to mix things up situationally as the season progresses.

The question at 5 is huge. The good news, as Jumbo mentions, is that we really don't need much. No offense required. The positive reports about Plumlee are encouraging, but there's not a great track record of Freshman success in the post. I think we are going to need something from Zoubek, and we need to get that from him without it disrupting the overall manner in which we play. If we are stuck with Singler at the 5 on a regular basis at season end, it will be ominous.

My favorite non-critical issue is what to make of Lance. I just don't see him helping much at the 5. However, maybe if he is freed from a role to which he is just not suited, he will thrive. There is room for role players on this team, and I think Lance has a real good shot at being a guy who comes in and is a disruptive force defensively. I think it will be real interesting to see what role he can carve for himself by season-end. As an experienced player who knows what it takes, he is in a great position to sieze the opportunity.

Kedsy
10-21-2008, 09:58 AM
Scheyer-Henderson-Singler are more than just really good. They're the single best trio in between point and center out of the 300-whatever teams in the country.

Great overview, Jumbo, you hit almost every nail directly on the head (although I, too, think the Thomas question deserved a bullet point).

But (and this is obviously not directed at Jumbo) do we have to jump on the hyperbole wagon so early in the year? What do people even mean when they say Scheyer-Henderson-Singler are the best 2 through 4 in the country? Have you closely examined every other Division I team and decided S-H-S would win a three-on-three tournament? It's just silly.

Personally, I'm not even sure S-H-S are the best 2 through 4 in the conference (Teague-Johnson-Aminu seem pretty darned scary to me). And I don't care. The Duke system isn't about individuals. Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler are all really good, and Duke should be really good, and I'm very excited for this season. Why do we have to go so far beyond that?

JasonEvans
10-21-2008, 09:59 AM
A solid argument could be made that we sticky Jumbo's post to the top of the board and just lock the board from any other posts for a couple weeks. Strong stuff, my kind and gentle friend!

I do think you missed one very important area and how it relates to the "5"--

Who will be on the court for Duke late in close games?
Nothing makes Duke fans tear their hair out more than a close game where Duke becomes a one-and-done-without-a-prayer-of-grabbing-a-rebound-jumpshooting team down the stretch in a tight ballgame. Can I get an "AMEN!" from the choir on that?!?!

The key here is whether Miles, Zoub, or Thomas** can be enough of a presence in the post to allow K to consider something other than Singler at the 5 in a close game. I have a feeling that the final 5 minutes of close games will see a lineup of Smith, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler. That team would be wonderful on offense with remarkable passers and shooters/scorers all over the place, but I worry about it on the boards and we all saw what happened last year when Singler was asked again and again to defend bigger/stronger big men.

Now, it is possible that Singler has added some strength that will allow him to handle this better. It is possible that Henderson's remarkable leaping ability and the general athleticism of Scheyer and Smith will allow us to get the rebounds when we need them. Many things are possible...

...but I think it is also possible that Duke will need one of those guys over 6-9 to step up and make some key plays down the stretch. I see this as one of the most important and most unknown questions of the upcoming season.

I do think it worth adding that I suspect the situation I described above may not come up very often this season, as I suspect we will be nursing a decent lead more often than not down the stretch. But, we know it will come up some of the time and will be a big part of what we all hope will be a looong run in March.

--Jason "when we have the lead, watching the other team chase Smith, Scheyer, Paulus, Henderson, and Singler will be a hoot!" Evans

**- I am a doubting Thomas when it comes to being a post presence though I love his D intensity

Kedsy
10-21-2008, 10:13 AM
I have a feeling that the final 5 minutes of close games will see a lineup of Smith, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler. That team would be wonderful on offense with remarkable passers and shooters/scorers all over the place, but I worry about it on the boards and we all saw what happened last year when Singler was asked again and again to defend bigger/stronger big men.

Agree with everything you say in this paragraph. I think this will be the usual end-of-close-game lineup, and I think it means rebounds and interior defense could be an issue at the end of close games.

Wander
10-21-2008, 10:14 AM
But (and this is obviously not directed at Jumbo) do we have to jump on the hyperbole wagon so early in the year? What do people even mean when they say Scheyer-Henderson-Singler are the best 2 through 4 in the country? Have you closely examined every other Division I team and decided S-H-S would win a three-on-three tournament? It's just silly.

Saying Czyz is going to start and score 15 a game is hyperbole. Saying Paulus will lead the nation in assists in hyperbole. Saying Hansbrough will only lose a contact lens twice this season is hyperbole. Saying Scheyer/Henderson/Singler will be the best starting 2-4 in the country is not hyperbole, it's a realistic prediction. It is still admittedly only a prediction and like all preseason predictions could very well turn out to be a pile of crap. I do appreciate keeping a level head and not going nuts with the unfair expectations that often happen here, but this one is not as far out there are you're making it out to be.

By the way, Scheyer/Henderson/Singler led Duke to within 5 minutes of an ACC title. Wake Forest had a losing conference record. I know they add Aminu and the other guys will be improved. But, I think you have to give that comparison to Duke right now.

_Gary
10-21-2008, 10:27 AM
Who will be on the court for Duke late in close games?
Nothing makes Duke fans tear their hair out more than a close game where Duke becomes a one-and-done-without-a-prayer-of-grabbing-a-rebound-jumpshooting team down the stretch in a tight ballgame. Can I get an "AMEN!" from the choir on that?!?!

The key here is whether Miles, Zoub, or Thomas** can be enough of a presence in the post to allow K to consider something other than Singler at the 5 in a close game. I have a feeling that the final 5 minutes of close games will see a lineup of Smith, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler. That team would be wonderful on offense with remarkable passers and shooters/scorers all over the place, but I worry about it on the boards and we all saw what happened last year when Singler was asked again and again to defend bigger/stronger big men.


You read my mind on that one, Jason. Here's the problem as I see it. Coach K, who is the best in the business bar none, does have a propensity to play his starters late into games (almost to the closing seconds) even when we have a huge lead for much of the 2nd half. And *if* your scenario of a 4 guard, 1 forward lineup to finish out games is correct then I once again have to worry about us being worn out in March. And yes, those five guys you mentioned are almost assuredly our best five. But what I'd love to see is a commitment by the staff to keep Singler at the 4 as much as possible and also move a little bit away from playing our best five for too many minutes. Let's just commit to seeing how we can incorporate the four other "bigs" we have on the roster so that Singler can play at his more natural 4, and be fresher as we move toward March. That's my biggest "Christmas wish", if you will. If we can make that happen, I feel we will be much more dangerous come tourney time. We've certainly got the depth this year to really run other teams out of the building a good bit if we put our mind to it.

Just my two cents.

Gary

Jeffrey
10-21-2008, 10:31 AM
I have a feeling that the final 5 minutes of close games will see a lineup of Smith, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler.

Hi,

Why wouldn't that be the lineup? How can you expect K not to play his 5 best when the game is on the line?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jeffrey
10-21-2008, 10:38 AM
Gerald learned a lot from his wrist injury, I think. I expect a better-rounded player. He finished last season with areas that still demanded improvement (On-ball D, perimeter shooting, ball-handling and court vision). But I think he'll have even more confidence and, in a funny way, will benefit from Nelson's departure.

Hi,

I agree and would like to know why you think Gerald will benefit from Nelson's departure?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jumbo
10-21-2008, 10:39 AM
Who will be on the court for Duke late in close games?

I thought about including that one, but realized we wouldn't learn anything about that over the next two weeks. But, (*Spoiler Alert*) it just might appear in, say, Phase I.

davekay1971
10-21-2008, 10:51 AM
The middle obviously is the only really big question mark going into the season. No matter how you look at it though, it should be improved c/w last season. Whether or not Zoubs, a year older and, hopefully, healthier, is much improved over last year, we add in Plumlee, who appears ready to contribute SOMETHING to the position. Duke can probably go with one of these guys as the 5 when the situation calls for it (trying to slow down an opposing big or trying to take advantage of a smaller team), or go with a smaller lineup without a true 5 (Singler or Thomas defening the other team's 5). This would be a nice improvement over last year where we basically didn't have much ability at all to put a true 5 in our offense or defensive set.

Ultimately, it would be very nice to be able to get some kind of effective low post scoring option. I look at the low post as kind of like the power back in football. It's great to be able to throw it around the field and have that quick-as-lightning running back who can break one for 20 yards, but sometimes you just need to know you can get 3 yards up the middle. When our outside shooters and slashers are in a cold stretch and we just need a bucket, I'd love to see us be able to dump it down to Plumlee or Zoubek and figure we've got at least a decent chance of something positive happening.

I haven't been able to get too fired up about the Paulus/Smith debate. Both guys have strengths to bring to the table. It's a good thing that they're very different players. I'm sure Coach K will be able to figure out how to use their differing strengths as the game situation indicates, and I'm sure he'll know when to play them together in the backcourt.

COYS
10-21-2008, 11:02 AM
I thought about including that one, but realized we wouldn't learn anything about that over the next two weeks. But, (*Spoiler Alert*) it just might appear in, say, Phase I.

Also, I'd be willing to bet that the answer to Jumbo's question regarding the post situation will have a lot to do with end-game situations, as well. If Zoubs or Miles are able to establish themselves as good defensive options (rebounding, protecting the rim) in the post and can hit their free-throws, it will give K far more options for late game situations.

Oh Canada
10-21-2008, 11:18 AM
I loved reading the thorough analysis.
Just a question as an outsider looking in.

How good is the coaching staff at keeping young egos and expectations in check?

I just looking at O.C. and wondering how he is being handled by the staff. I'm sure he's as eager as anyone to get out there and prove something. What do they say to a guy that needs to develop for a year or two but has a fire and passion to play and was "The Man" so to speak in high school?

Kedsy
10-21-2008, 11:18 AM
Saying Hansbrough will only lose a contact lens twice this season is hyperbole.

Funny.


By the way, Scheyer/Henderson/Singler led Duke to within 5 minutes of an ACC title. Wake Forest had a losing conference record. I know they add Aminu and the other guys will be improved. But, I think you have to give that comparison to Duke right now.

Well, this would be correct if Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler comprised our entire team. If we didn't have Nelson and Paulus last year do you think we would have been better than Wake?

And, incidentally, in the one game we played against Wake last year, Scheyer/Henderson/Singler combined for 23 points and 12 rebounds, while Teague/Johnson/Williams (who reportedly is nowhere near as strong a player as Aminu) combined for 59 and 27.

I'm not saying Wake's 2 through 4 are definitely better than ours. I'm saying it's debatable. But if a decent argument can be made that S/H/S aren't even the best 2 through 4 in the conference, I think saying they're the best in the nation can accurately be described as hyperbole.

Kedsy
10-21-2008, 11:22 AM
What do they say to a guy that needs to develop for a year or two but has a fire and passion to play and was "The Man" so to speak in high school?

Pretty much everyone who's recruited by a top program like Duke was "The Man" in high school. They don't all play a lot in college, especially as freshmen.

I have no idea what the staff say, but it's safe to assume they have experience dealing with this sort of thing.

socaldukie
10-21-2008, 11:39 AM
They say the truth and are very up front with the athlete.

Play good D = playing time.

BlueintheFace
10-21-2008, 12:08 PM
Great Rundown! My only lingering questions have less to do with personnel and more to do with X's and O's. How will Duke's Offense change or be affected by K's experience at the Olympics? The Defense? This real specific stuff probably won't be answered until christmas or so, but it will be interesting to watch...

Pick and Roll- I expect to see better execution on pick-n-roll plays late in the game when we are nursing a lead. Last year I think K couldn't quite decide who he wanted with the ball in his hands (scheyer, Paulus, G) and who he wanted setting the screen (usually Kyle though). Plus, the guys on the perimeter sometimes forgot to break to open spots for three on the drive. I think these situations will be ironed out this year. I expect to see better spacing now.

New Out of Bounds Plays- Although the (a) triple screen for scheyer/nolan to get an open three on the wing, (b) paulus in-bound pass for the ball back in the corner and open three, and (c) high low screen for the alley oop off the baseline plays are all good, I think we might see some new tricks.

Defending Pick and Roll- It's hard to imagine K didn't pick up a thing or two on this from all the film and coaching this summer. Show me a european team that doesn't rely on this and I'll show you a Carolina player with a great education... (that was dirty, but it felt so good)

Zone Press- This seemed to work fairly well for the Americans this summer (granted we had amazing athletes on the floor), but I think we can see from last season, and the Blue-White Game already, that it will be a definite part of the repertoire. Our depth only increases our ability to run it often. The success of this type of D however will rest on the mobile big men (specifically Lance) who can range that mid court line and pick off passes. Perhaps K has learned a trick or two here as well.

Sets and Plays- I am also interested to see what sets and plays will come into the offense this season. I expect that there will be very few changes. If anything, the US team ran Duke's offense this summer with Kobe and D-wade really starting the Offense from the wings. Similarly, I'm sure we will continue to see G and Scheyer get the ball on the sidelines early in the play clock to create off a high screen. I'm also sure that we will continue to run the back screen alley-oop play to gerald 3 or 4 times a game. What I am not sure of, is if K has some sets in mind to utilize Nolan's slashing abilities this year and how much Kyle will get the ball in the post...

JasonEvans
10-21-2008, 12:12 PM
I'm not saying Wake's 2 through 4 are definitely better than ours. I'm saying it's debatable. But if a decent argument can be made that S/H/S aren't even the best 2 through 4 in the conference, I think saying they're the best in the nation can accurately be described as hyperbole.

Sorry, but I am calling foul here. Just because one of the other elite 2-4 combos in the nation happens to be in the ACC does not make it impossible of our 2-4 combo to be the best combo out there. This make no sense.

Lets say, for example, that Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain played in the same conference. I say Wilt is the best center in basketball. You say, "hey, he might not even be the best center in the conference. How can he be the best in the game? You are just using hyperbole."

Is that fair? Is that accurate? Of course not.

To drive it home even more. By the end of this year, Duke may be the best team in the country. Is that hyperbolic? By your definition it must be because it is very much debatable whether Duke is even the best team in its conference.

The dictionary (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hyperbole) defines hyperbole as "extravagant exaggeration." Some examples I found are "I could sleep for a year" or "this book weighs a ton." As others have noted, it is not hyperbolic to claim that the trio that makes up Duke's core this season are the best in the land as a trio. Sure, it might be debatable. Sure, there might be other strong candidates. But, it is most assuredly not an "extravagant exaggeration" to make this claim.

--Jason "I feel like I am in an English class" Evans

gumbomoop
10-21-2008, 12:48 PM
Play good D = playing time.


In general, maybe even overwhelmingly, I'm convinced this is true under K. Yes, absolutely.

But..... that seems to suggest that K and coaches think DMc brings absolutely nothing to the court offensively, for surely they think he's a strong defender. So, if he's as good defensively as I think they think he is [position, best blocker-outer on a team that does not block out well at all, surprising shot blocker, can defend anyone except fastest of pg's and guys above 6'8"], does that mean 8-10 min/game for a first-rate defender = playing time?

Alas, as a staunch DMc fan, I'm resigned to the fact that he's not been assertive enough offensively, and that he's not quite (but al....most) big enough to defend at the 5. So, I hope he shines when he's in, and believe he will.

Wander
10-21-2008, 12:57 PM
As others have noted, it is not hyperbolic to claim that the trio that makes up Duke's core this season are the best in the land as a trio. Sure, it might be debatable. Sure, there might be other strong candidates.


Exactly. I'm not claiming it isn't debatable, and I'm not saying that anyone who disagrees with me is an idiot. It's just my prediction and I'm sticking to it. We can revisit it later in the season.

And yes, Wake's guys kicked the crap out of our guys in the head-to-head matchup last season. No argument there. I still think our three is better than their three.

Kedsy
10-21-2008, 01:26 PM
To drive it home even more. By the end of this year, Duke may be the best team in the country. Is that hyperbolic? By your definition it must be because it is very much debatable whether Duke is even the best team in its conference.

Well, first of all, Wander didn't say S/H/S may be the best 2 through 4 in the nation. I wouldn't have argued with that. He corrected a glowing statement on their abilities and stated unequivocally that they are the best trio. He didn't say by the end of the year, either. If you said, today, that Duke is the best team in the nation then, yes, I would say you were employing hyperbole.

I am more familiar with the ACC than other conferences, so I picked the first example that came to me. My point was if I could so easily pick a 2 through 4 that is arguably better than Duke's, on a team that's only borderline top 25, then there must be a whole lot of others of similar quality. Without taking the time to evaluate 300+ teams, my guess is an objective observer would place Duke's trio between 5 and 15. Although as Jumbo said, they may be better than most people realize. That remains to be seen.


Exactly. I'm not claiming it isn't debatable, and I'm not saying that anyone who disagrees with me is an idiot. It's just my prediction and I'm sticking to it. We can revisit it later in the season.

And yes, Wake's guys kicked the crap out of our guys in the head-to-head matchup last season. No argument there. I still think our three is better than their three.

I'm not claiming anybody's an idiot. And I hope you're right about our guys vs. Wake's guys. Frankly I'm hoping everything you said is right. I'm simply suggesting your dark-blue-tinted-glasses may be coloring your perceptions, and to me it sounded hyperbolic.

I also think making such grand, difficult-to-support pronouncements at this stage of the season is unnecessary and sets us all up for a letdown. I'd rather say they're going to be good and then sit back and watch how good they become. But of course that's just me and I'm not suggesting you shouldn't say whatever you want. I just disagree with it, that's all.

dukiedevil89
10-21-2008, 02:23 PM
couldnt you also argue though that the statistics between duke's three is skewed in comparison to wake's three b/c, since wake was less good last year, they had to depend on the three more than duke did, and therefore their numbers will be higher?

Edouble
10-21-2008, 02:32 PM
couldnt you also argue though that the statistics between duke's three is skewed in comparison to wake's three b/c, since wake was less good last year, they had to depend on the three more than duke did, and therefore their numbers will be higher?

The only thing skewed around here is grammar. It shouldn't matter if you score with twos or with threes.

grossbus
10-21-2008, 02:38 PM
"my kind and gentle friend"

who???

seriously, has anyone observed improvements in zoobs' game that would warrant consideration of his being part of an end game situation?

phaedrus
10-21-2008, 02:47 PM
The only thing skewed around here is grammar. It shouldn't matter if you score with twos or with threes.

Pretty sure by "depend on the three" he meant depend on their three best players, not depend on the three-point shot.

dukiedevil89
10-21-2008, 02:57 PM
Pretty sure by "depend on the three" he meant depend on their three best players, not depend on the three-point shot.

Yes, I did. Thank you.

MChambers
10-21-2008, 03:30 PM
I would add:

Perimeter Defensive Stopper. Last year, Demarcus Nelson was our primary defensive stopper on perimeter playmakers. How does Duke replace his contribution? My guess is by committee, but we will see.

ACCBBallFan
10-21-2008, 03:38 PM
Wow, never read so many words and found absolutely nothing I disagreed with.

Both camps make solid arguments for the best 2-3-4 but until Aminu at least proves himself rather than reliance on HS halos and AAU accolades, I give the edge to Duke. Both also have fine supporting casts at the 2-3-4 but again edge to Elliott-Marty-Nolan/Greg.

One minor area of disagreement with Jumbo, is I rate Singler as Duke's MVP. not because he does more than Jon but because Duke has no one else to play his position nearly as well as Duke has other alternatives to Jon, be it Nolan, Greg, Elliott, Marty or G.

Duke is most vulnerable at inevitable point in game Singler has to sit due to minor injury, foul trouble or exhaustion, as was the case last year, and even the year before with Josh McRoberts. This year at least he is sitting as a 4, rather than abandoning the post. But when Kyle is not in the game, Duke plays to not lose with Lance/Dave rather than playing to win with Kyle-G-Jon as its core.

I too believe except in best 5 at end of game stall ball scenario, neither Kyle nor Lance should ever be asked to play the 5 (they are ideal 4's) whenever Zoubek, Plumlee or Dave the best rebounder is available.

By end of year perhaps Olek Czyz a/k/a this year's King Taylor or Calves, can at least learn enough to play some gimmick zone to add 5 more fouls and leverage his athleticism and ability to incite the Cameron Crazies with thunder dunks but that is an end of season goal not an immediate reality.

Miles adds miles to Duke's possibilities, along with a healthy Zoubek. Without these two, regardless of how good Duke is at 2-3-4, another early NCAA exit. With them, never out of contention regardless of the foe.

Finally I totally agree coach K will leverage some of what he learned in his Olympic experience whether it is pick and roll, Boeheim's zones, substituting patterns, how to better manage multiple stars and egos of guys who deserve to play more but not enough PT to go around, whatever.

Zeb
10-21-2008, 04:18 PM
Other than size, is there anything Lance brings to the table that a healthy Dave McClure doesn't do better? Dave appears to be a better rebounder and better defender in the post than Lance, even if Dave is giving up a few pounds/inches. Both are very quiet on offense, but I feel Dave is more active without the ball. Lance seems to have carved out a very small niche when we're playing full court press, but I still feel like Dave's a much better overall defender.

Can anyone tell me why K should play Lance ahead of Dave at this point?

BD80
10-21-2008, 05:32 PM
Sorry, but I am calling foul here. Just because one of the other elite 2-4 combos in the nation happens to be in the ACC does not make it impossible of our 2-4 combo to be the best combo out there. This make no sense. ...

The dictionary (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hyperbole) defines hyperbole as "extravagant exaggeration." Some examples I found are "I could sleep for a year" or "this book weighs a ton." As others have noted, it is not hyperbolic to claim that the trio that makes up Duke's core this season are the best in the land as a trio. Sure, it might be debatable. Sure, there might be other strong candidates. But, it is most assuredly not an "extravagant exaggeration" to make this claim.

--Jason "I feel like I am in an English class" Evans

Kedsey, Kedsey, Kedsey

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The first is never get involved in a land war in Asia. The second, only slightly less well known, is this: never go up against Jason when hyperbole is on the line!

JDev
10-21-2008, 06:58 PM
I think the end-of-game line-up question is an interesting one. K could go with the best five (Paulus, Smith, Sheyer, Henderson, Singler) which would be his best offensive line-up and continue to score on his opponent, or go wih his best defensive line-up (subtract Paulus, add 5 to be named later) and attempt to shut down his opposition down the stretch. Do you want consistent offense or consistent defense down the stretch? Hopefully as the season fleshes out Duke will find a way to have both.

BlueintheFace
10-21-2008, 07:02 PM
Kedsey, Kedsey, Kedsey

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The first is never get involved in a land war in Asia. The second, only slightly less well known, is this: never go up against Jason when hyperbole is on the line!

BD80- That Jason Evans, he can really "fuss"
Blueintheface- Fuss, Fuss I think he likes to complain to "us"
BD80-Kedsy, I think he means no "harm"
Blueintheface- He's really very short on "charm"

SupaDave
10-21-2008, 09:01 PM
"my kind and gentle friend"

who???

seriously, has anyone observed improvements in zoobs' game that would warrant consideration of his being part of an end game situation?

He definitely shoots free throws well. Next!

SupaDave
10-21-2008, 09:06 PM
Other than size, is there anything Lance brings to the table that a healthy Dave McClure doesn't do better? Dave appears to be a better rebounder and better defender in the post than Lance, even if Dave is giving up a few pounds/inches. Both are very quiet on offense, but I feel Dave is more active without the ball. Lance seems to have carved out a very small niche when we're playing full court press, but I still feel like Dave's a much better overall defender.

Can anyone tell me why K should play Lance ahead of Dave at this point?

Lance is quicker, bigger, stronger, less injury prone, and displays leadership skills at times when noone else will. He's got some incredible things to build on.

Dave is great too especially when fired up but Lance is very disruptive on the press and that is huge for a 'big' man to be able to do that and get back to his man. Towards the end of the season he made some HUGE plays and was all over the court.

BD80
10-21-2008, 09:08 PM
BD80- That Jason Evans, he can really "fuss"
Blueintheface- Fuss, Fuss I think he likes to complain to "us"
BD80-Kedsy, I think he means no "harm"
Blueintheface- He's really very short on "charm"

No more rhyming now, I mean it.

phaedrus
10-21-2008, 09:09 PM
Anybody want a peanut?

SupaDave
10-21-2008, 09:23 PM
So, how will the team handle heightened expectations?
I think they'll play with an edge. And I think the expectaions are deserved. This team can compete with anyone in the country. Anyone. I'm betting that's manifesting itself every day in practice, and will become apparent in the two exhibition games.



I predict that they will win the Maui Invitational, beat EVERY team in the ACC/BIG 10 challenge, win the Pre-season NIT championship and the NIT championship, go undefeated and win the ACC championship and tourney as well as the SEC, Pac-10, Big 10, Big 12, Big South, Big Sky, MEAC, CIAA, C-USA, Big East, and Atlantic-10 conference championships by default, the National Championship where Jessica Simpson will be cheering in a "Singler" jersey.

I have it all figured it out. They will play in the NIT and NCAA tourney regardless of scheduling - destroying all teams by 75 points along the way.

Ok but seriously, I think this team still really has a chip on their shoulder. They can still feel the sting of a couple of years ago and last year.

And it's not just that, I knew it was on and popping when I saw Kyle with that look in his eye. You know that look. When that player looks up unintimidated by anybody or anything and says "I'm ready". It's that nasty that lets me know that this team will NOT be pushed around this year.

Newton_14
10-21-2008, 09:27 PM
A good assessment by the Jumbomeister... Nice take on things.

I think you are spot on.

Regarding Gerald benefiting from the loss of Demarcus, I can see where you are coming from there. I think last year Gerald "deferred" to Demarcus on occasion and likely held back too much because it was Demarc's team. In the Belmont game when times were desperate, he tossed deference to the leader by the wayside and took over.

I believe we will see more of Gerald demanding the ball and taking it upon himself to get a bucket when the offense goes awry...

Newton_14
10-21-2008, 09:39 PM
The major question I have is what will the rotation look like when we get to what I assume Jumbo will call "Phase II" (when the tough games begin).

We all know over the next month we will see all 12 guys play, most of them in both halves of the game. When they play the first tough opponent (UCLA?), how many guys will see the floor in the 2nd half and how many minutes will those top five guys (Greg, Jon, G, Kyle, Nolan) log?

I am really hoping to see at least 9 guys in the normal rotation throughout the year.

I am really hoping NOT to see anyone averaging 34+ minutes per game...

mgtr
10-21-2008, 09:43 PM
I believe we will see more of Gerald demanding the ball and taking it upon himself to get a bucket when the offense goes awry...

I am uncertain of the spirit in which this was posted, but I consider Hendo taking over as a good thing.

Regarding Jumbo's post, someone suggested making it a sticky. Rather than that I would like to see it brought for on January 1 for discussion, and again on April 1. See where we have been and where we are heading.

Newton_14
10-21-2008, 09:52 PM
I am uncertain of the spirit in which this was posted, but I consider Hendo taking over as a good thing.

I posted it as an honest take on what I saw last year. I consider it a great thing if Gerald asserts himself more on offense. I also have lots of love for Demarcus and he was a great leader last year. He did not have a good NCAA tourney but I will always believe that was due to health, and tired legs..

No hidden agenda with my post, just an honest opinion

ACCBBallFan
10-21-2008, 11:14 PM
The major question I have is what will the rotation look like when we get to what I assume Jumbo will call "Phase II" (when the tough games begin).

We all know over the next month we will see all 12 guys play, most of them in both halves of the game. When they play the first tough opponent (UCLA?), how many guys will see the floor in the 2nd half and how many minutes will those top five guys (Greg, Jon, G, Kyle, Nolan) log?

I am really hoping to see at least 9 guys in the normal rotation throughout the year.

I am really hoping NOT to see anyone averaging 34+ minutes per game...

For the so-called phase 2, my top 7 lineup where all but one play multiple positions in Dunlevy mode would be:

Nolan-Greg-Jon-Gerald-Kyle-Miles-Brian

To get to 9, winner of Lance/Dave battle and the winner of the Elliott/Marty competition.

Reason these 2 are not in top 7 is Duke's major needs are C and PG where IMO Z/Miles and Greg/Nolan are the obvious choices when shortening the bench.

Dave is the better rebounder and Lance is an aggressive defender in full court but neither have the size to be anything but a third string post player. Gottta have Z due to sheer size even if zero style points. If Miles turns out to be more of a freshman than a savior, Lance/Dave are adequate alternatives but Duke's prospects of sweet 16 and beyond go down.

Particularly Elliott but also Marty could do a lot, but Duke is so loaded at the 2-3-4 that unless they can outperform Nolan/Greg at PG, more insurance than incremental improvement over top 7.

Kedsy
10-22-2008, 12:01 AM
Kedsey, Kedsey, Kedsey

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The first is never get involved in a land war in Asia. The second, only slightly less well known, is this: never go up against Jason when hyperbole is on the line!


Inconceivable!

JDev
10-22-2008, 12:08 AM
Inconceivable!

You keep saying that word. I don't think that means what you think it means.

Edouble
10-22-2008, 12:35 AM
You keep saying that word. I don't think that means what you think it means.

Are you kidding? I'm pretty sure it's a reference to The Princess Bride.

brevity
10-22-2008, 12:44 AM
Yes, and so is "You keep saying that word. I don't think that means what you think it means."

(I'm on the DBR Brute Squad.)

JDev
10-22-2008, 01:07 AM
Yes, and so is "You keep saying that word. I don't think that means what you think it means."

(I'm on the DBR Brute Squad.)

Haha, wow, yeah that too is a reference to the same film. Thank you brevity.

BlueintheFace
10-22-2008, 01:17 AM
I overheard G on the phone yesterday. Here is a rough quote:

"Hello, my name is Gerald Henderson, you killed my 2008 ACC Championship Hopes, Prepare to Die."

Then later that day I asked K about national champiosnhips and he said to me:

"Sonny, a national championship is the greatest thing in the world-except for a nice MLT - mutton, lettuce and tomato sandwich, where the mutton is nice and lean and the tomato is ripe. They're so perky, I love that."

It was a great day!!

kinghoops
10-22-2008, 03:28 AM
great job by everyone in this post! lots of interesting opinions, and i look forward to see how this all plays out. my opinion, i think paulus will start at pg the majority of the year, i think you will see him and smith play lots of minutes together. and who knows, i would think in end of game situations the 5 on the floor will be jon,g,kyle,greg and nolan on offensive possesions and maybe lance, greg or miles on defensive possesions.

i for one think lance can be a factor in the 5 position. i recall the game in chapel hill last year where lance more than held his own, i think with a lil confidence, he can produce!and also with a few more bigger bodies for practice, maybe one of these guys can emerge. we really dont need a 20 and 10 guy, but hopefully out of the three we can get 10 and 15.

i also dont see oc playing very much this year, i just dont see where the mins will come from. my breakdown for possible mins( pure wag!)

paulus.. 28 min
g 30
kyle 30
jon 29
nolan 25
z/lance 25

165 mins.... which leaves 35 min to be split between ewill,
plumlee,mcclure,marty and oc

so it will be interesting to see how these mins are split, but im ready to buckle up and go for the ride!!

Bob Green
10-22-2008, 04:43 AM
Can you just end this post already?

Actually, I enjoyed the analysis and wouldn't have minded you rambling on for five or six more paragraphs.


How good is the Singler-Henderson-Scheyer trio?

Our Triumvirate of Singler, Henderson, and Scheyer should be solid all season. These three guys will start, play the most minutes, and rack up the most impressive stat lines. All three should be competitive for All-ACC and AA awards at the end of the season. Therefore, the Center and Point Guard positions along with the ability of the freshmen to contribute are the X Factors.


And how about the middle?
Now here's a real mess. The good news: Duke has lots of options. The bad news: None of those options is really proven. I don't think it will matter at all who starts. Plumlee and Zoubek will both play, and I doubt either will exceed 15 mpg. Thomas will get some time at the 5, too.

Center by committee is what I expect to see at least until someone steps up and separates themselves as the dominant big man on the team. With Zoubek, Plumlee, and Thomas playing in the middle, Duke has multiple options to ensure Kyle Singler stays at the 4 where he can create serious match-up problems for our opponents. I'm still solidly in the camp that believes Zoubek will be much improved this season however, I am excited by the prospect of Plumlee contirbuting as a freshman. Thomas will get his minutes when Duke desires/needs to execute the fullcourt press. Coach K discussed Thomas' defensive energy after the B/W game and that equates to information straight from the top.


Speaking of Plumlee, are the freshmen ready to contribute?

Seeing as the is Phase 0, I'll wager all three see playing time and have the opportunity to contribute. Once we move on to Phase I and definitely by Phase II, I expect we will see the rotation tighten up to nine or ten players and that equates to no minutes available for Czyz. Of course, If I'm wrong I'll gladly eat some crow.


So, who's got the point? ...what's more important, Paulus' shooting, Smith's D, or some other, harder-to-read factors?

I vote for Smith's defense but that really is just a WAG. Paulus and Smith will both play major minutes so we are looking at a PG by committee type situation but to less of a degree than at Center. Who starts and plays the most minutes will probably change a significant amount from game-to-game based on the skill sets of our opponents PG.


When is everyone going to realize how good Jon Scheyer is?

This is a great question and hopefully the answer is April 2009.

JasonEvans
10-22-2008, 12:16 PM
Folks, I think we can best sum up many of our concerns about Duke's season this way.


Q: Are you worried about the R.O.U.S?

A: Rebounders Of Unusual Size, I don't think they exist.

-Jason "parts of this thread are teetering in between Main Board and OffTopic... and I love it!!" Evans

BlueintheFace
10-22-2008, 12:22 PM
Folks, I think we can best sum up many of our concerns about Duke's season this way.


Q: Are you worried about the R.O.U.S?

A: Rebounders Of Unusual Size, I don't think they exist.

-Jason "parts of this thread are teetering in between Main Board and OffTopic... and I love it!!" Evans

Post of the season so far RIGHT HERE!!!

JDev
10-22-2008, 12:28 PM
Folks, I think we can best sum up many of our concerns about Duke's season this way.


Q: Are you worried about the R.O.U.S?

A: Rebounders Of Unusual Size, I don't think they exist.

-Jason "parts of this thread are teetering in between Main Board and OffTopic... and I love it!!" Evans

Haha, that is terrific!

JDev
10-22-2008, 12:30 PM
As various line-ups are discussed, I want to paraphrase a question asked ealier in this thread: Do you think coach K will emphasize defense, and the corresponding line-up, late in games, or do you think he will emphasize offense and keep the scorers in?

pfrduke
10-22-2008, 01:38 PM
I am really hoping to see at least 9 guys in the normal rotation throughout the year.

I am really hoping NOT to see anyone averaging 34+ minutes per game...

I can pretty much guarantee that you won't see anyone averaging 34+. Nelson was the only player who averaged over 30 on the season. Even in conference play, Nelson averaged 32, Kyle 30, and everyone else was less. Heck, several of our main players never played more than 34 minutes in a single game last year - Henderson (max was 33), Scheyer (34 once, at NC St - and 35, but in the Pitt game that went to OT), Paulus (34 3 times - Belmont, Maryland, and the Pitt OT game). Only Nelson and Singler got over 34 minutes on multiple occasions. With this year's team being deeper than last year's, there's pretty much no chance we'll see anyone averaging 34. There will probably be only one or two (Singler, Scheyer) who hit 30.

3rd Dukie
10-22-2008, 01:43 PM
to both Jumbo and Blueintheface for their insightful posts.

Great stuff!

BD80
10-22-2008, 02:25 PM
Folks, I think we can best sum up many of our concerns about Duke's season this way.


Q: Are you worried about the R.O.U.S?

A: Rebounders Of Unusual Size, I don't think they exist.

-Jason "parts of this thread are teetering in between Main Board and OffTopic... and I love it!!" Evans

Do not worry about the R.O.U.S., it could cause you to lose sleep. And, if so ...


I do not envy you the headache you will have when you awake. But for now, rest well and dream of large rebounders.

Since we have Brian and Miles, with Lance and Olek and Kyle, I can honestly say: "I've seen worse".

Keeping this thread on the brink is half the fun!

BlueintheFace
10-22-2008, 03:32 PM
As various line-ups are discussed, I want to paraphrase a question asked ealier in this thread: Do you think coach K will emphasize defense, and the corresponding line-up, late in games, or do you think he will emphasize offense and keep the scorers in?

I think that if Duke has the lead at the end of games, K will always have Kyle Singler on the floor (provided foul trouble is not a factor). In addition he will always have a ball handler who can penetrate off a screen (Scheyer, G, Nolan). This is because K likes to 1) spread the court, 2) Send Kyle up from the baseline to the three point line for a high screen, and 3) have one of his penetrators make a play; either (a) to the basket on the drive or (b)with the dish to a three point shooter on the perimeter or (c) with the pass to a rolling kyle.

To this extent, I think he will have personnel on the floor for offense. Defensively, I believe he will simply want to have Miles or Zoubek on the floor to protect the rim and that is about it. The important thing to remember is that we do not have a lot of defensive liabilities on this team at all. Greg Paulus, Marty Pocius, and Olek seem to be the only ones this year (compared to the rest of the team of course) and my personal opinion is that Paulus will be on the floor at the end for his judgment and outside shooting. So... my opinion is that K will look to have his scorers on the floor with full faith in the team defense. There doesn't seem to be a big difference here in personnel either way.

ACCBBallFan
10-22-2008, 03:40 PM
Since we have Brian and Miles, with Lance and Olek and Kyle, I can honestly say: "I've seen worse".

You can safely insert Dave in the game before Olek.

Singler is obviously [the] top Big Man, and then I think it goes pretty much by height and seniority: Zoubek, Miles, Lance, Dave and Olek

shoutingncu
10-22-2008, 04:04 PM
And I'll use small words so that you'll be sure to understand...

The first thing you lose will be the Coaches Versus Cancer,
Then the ACC / Big Ten Challenge.
Next your non-conference home win streak.

And then my football coach, I suppose... I beat you in Chapel Hill too quickly the last time.

I wasn't finished. The next thing you lose will be the regular season, followed by the ACC Tourney.

And then the first weekend? I understand let's get on with it.

Wrong! The first weekend you keep, and I'll tell you why...

So that every shriek of every Cameron Crazy will be yours to cherish,

Every UNC Woman that weeps at a loss to Maryland,

Every child that cries out, "Dear God, what were those refs thinking?"

Will echo in the Sweet Sixteen.

Kedsy
10-22-2008, 04:19 PM
And I'll use small words so that you'll be sure to understand...

The first thing you lose will be the Coaches Versus Cancer,
Then the ACC / Big Ten Challenge.
Next your non-conference home win streak.

And then my football coach, I suppose... I beat you in Chapel Hill too quickly the last time.

I wasn't finished. The next thing you lose will be the regular season, followed by the ACC Tourney.

And then the first weekend? I understand let's get on with it.

Wrong! The first weekend you keep, and I'll tell you why...

So that every shriek of every Cameron Crazy will be yours to cherish,

Every UNC Woman that weeps at a loss to Maryland,

Every child that cries out, "Dear God, what were those refs thinking?"

Will echo in the Sweet Sixteen.


To the pain, indeed.

Kedsy
10-22-2008, 04:25 PM
Soingler is obvisouly top Big Man, and then I think it goes pretty much by height and senioriity Zoubek, Miles, Lance, Dave and Olek

I suspect that, rather than by height and seniority, who plays will be determined by who has the best chance to help Duke win.

And if I didn't think that, I still wouldn't understand your order, which other than McClure ahead of Czyz seems to be entirely based on height.

Jeffrey
10-22-2008, 06:19 PM
I would add:

Perimeter Defensive Stopper. Last year, Demarcus Nelson was our primary defensive stopper on perimeter playmakers. How does Duke replace his contribution? My guess is by committee, but we will see.

Hi,

I think Gerald will step up his D and be that person this year. IMO, he has the skill set when healthy.

I think Gerald is going to really benefit from Nelson's graduation.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Devils Rock
10-22-2008, 07:23 PM
To the pain, indeed.

Yes, but more importantly, Carolina shall be thrown into the pit of despair.

ACCBBallFan
10-22-2008, 08:18 PM
I suspect that, rather than by height and seniority, who plays will be determined by who has the best chance to help Duke win.

And if I didn't think that, I still wouldn't understand your order, which other than McClure ahead of Czyz seems to be entirely based on height.

The reasons are as you state. It is merely a coincidence that other than Kyle, the order ends up being height with seniority a tie breaker between Dave /Olek who are about the asame height.

I did not mean to imply cause and effect, other than height and seniority being a tie breaker, after who played the best in practice and recent games and mathes up well with that day's foe.

ACCBBallFan
10-22-2008, 08:25 PM
I think that if Duke has the lead at the end of games, K will always have Kyle Singler on the floor (provided foul trouble is not a factor). In addition he will always have a ball handler who can penetrate off a screen (Scheyer, G, Nolan). This is because K likes to 1) spread the court, 2) Send Kyle up from the baseline to the three point line for a high screen, and 3) have one of his penetrators make a play; either (a) to the basket on the drive or (b)with the dish to a three point shooter on the perimeter or (c) with the pass to a rolling kyle.

To this extent, I think he will have personnel on the floor for offense. Defensively, I believe he will simply want to have Miles or Zoubek on the floor to protect the rim and that is about it. The important thing to remember is that we do not have a lot of defensive liabilities on this team at all. Greg Paulus, Marty Pocius, and Olek seem to be the only ones this year (compared to the rest of the team of course) and my personal opinion is that Paulus will be on the floor at the end for his judgment and outside shooting. So... my opinion is that K will look to have his scorers on the floor with full faith in the team defense. There doesn't seem to be a big difference here in personnel either way.

I doubt coach K will have Zoubek in the end of game situation though his 4-4 FT in B/W help his cause.

Singler for sure and Henderson too if he continues his 9-9 FTs, and possibly Miles, but more likely any of Jon, Greg, Nolan, Elliott or Marty who can handle the rock, drive to basket in spread formation, and hit FTs

BlueintheFace
10-23-2008, 12:41 AM
I doubt coach K will have Zoubek in the end of game situation though his 4-4 FT in B/W help his cause.

Singler for sure and Henderson too if he continues his 9-9 FTs, and possibly Miles, but more likely any of Jon, Greg, Nolan, Elliott or Marty who can handle the rock, drive to basket in spread formation, and hit FTs

I think you might be partially right. Really, I believe it depends on the opponent, but I can easily imagine situations in which Zoubek or Plumlee are in at the end of close games. Defensively, I believe it will often be preferable.

Turk
10-23-2008, 01:03 PM
Yes, but more importantly, Carolina shall be thrown into the pit of despair.

Coach K: Finish him. Finish him, your way.
Zoubek: Oh good, my way. Thank you, Coach... what's my way?
Coach K: Pick up one of those rocks, get behind a boulder, in a few minutes Hanstravel will come running around the bend, the minute his head is in view, hit it with the rock.
Zoubek: My way's not very sportsman-like.

Oh wait, Gerald tried that a couple years ago and it didn't work.... Never mind, and yes, it was unintentional... Let's try this one, in memory of Max Crowder...

Coach K: [planning a strategy] Oh, what I wouldn't give for a holocaust cloak.
GHenderson: There, we cannot help you.
Zoubek: [produces a holocaust cloak] Will this do?
GHenderson: Where did you get that?
Zoubek: At Miracle Max's. It fits so nice, he said I could keep it.

greybeard
10-23-2008, 01:45 PM
Duke's half-court offense last year was most effective when it was a five-man set. In fact, when it wasn't, Duke struggled. In my opinion, saying that Duke does not need scoring from the pivot position is a misstake. It might be one that K decides that he will have to live with, but I hope that that decision is deferred for quite a while. I hope that the pivot position remains a vital part of the offense even when Singlar is playing his natural 4.

In short, it might be the case that Duke will go far without getting much in the way of offense from the 5, and it might also be the case that there is really no choice, but if I were K I'd invest plenty up front to come into March with a team that can hurt people on offense from the pivot spot.

1Devil
10-23-2008, 05:32 PM
...even when Singlar is playing his natural 4.


Singlar? I think they're AT&T Wireless now.

JDev
10-23-2008, 05:58 PM
I think to expect a lot of production from the pivot is a difficult assumption, but Duke desperately needs the threat of production from a big man. They will benefit a great deal from opposing teams having to devote some time and attention there. I think it is a reasonable assumption to think that Duke will have that. The good news is Duke does not need or want to get a lot of points there, given the make up of their line-up.

ACCBBallFan
10-23-2008, 06:04 PM
I think to expect a lot of production from the pivot is a difficult assumption, but Duke desperately needs the threat of production from a big man. They will benefit a great deal from opposing teams having to devote some time and attention there. I think it is a reasonable assumption to think that Duke will have that. The good news is Duke does not need or want to get a lot of points there, given the make up of their line-up. Neither Zoubek nor Miles nor whoever backs them up at the 5 will individually have great stats (except if that's Kyle), but collectively the metrics will be comparable to many very productive centers.

SO VPP (virtual post player) or CBC (center by committee) will not be a huge liability for Duke

greybeard
10-23-2008, 07:19 PM
Singlar? I think they're AT&T Wireless now.

Oops, I remember Jumbo correcting everyone all the time on that one, only I forgot for a second which way was which. Well, I know one way is correct, says "grey Pooh bear[d]"

Jumbo
10-23-2008, 11:52 PM
Hi,

I agree and would like to know why you think Gerald will benefit from Nelson's departure?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Sorry I didn't get back to you until now. I think this is the case for a few reasons:

1) Many of their skills overlap. Both are slashing-type players who prefer to put their heads down and attack the basket. Neither was a great three-point shooter, so when one of them drove, the other guy wasn't the ideal player to have on the opposite wing, waiting for a kickout. And because both players' court vision was somewhat limited, they didn't really open driving lanes for one another.

2) On the other hand, I think both guys played better next to Scheyer, because he's a better shooter, passer and gap driver (meaning he is adept at taking a couple of dribbles, drawing a defender and quickly kicking the ball out. I think Henderson and Scheyer will play well off one another.

3) Gerald has naturally stepped up into more of an assertive position, both as a leader and a player. The one key will be for G not to simply decide he has to score more, but work on rounding out his game, particularly his passing.

JDev
10-24-2008, 12:45 AM
Neither Zoubek nor Miles nor whoever backs them up at the 5 will individually have great stats (except if that's Kyle), but collectively the metrics will be comparable to many very productive centers.

SO VPP (virtual post player) or CBC (center by committee) will not be a huge liability for Duke

Completely agree

JDev
10-24-2008, 12:48 AM
Sorry I didn't get back to you until now. I think this is the case for a few reasons:

1) Many of their skills overlap. Both are slashing-type players who prefer to put their heads down and attack the basket. Neither was a great three-point shooter, so when one of them drove, the other guy wasn't the ideal player to have on the opposite wing, waiting for a kickout. And because both players' court vision was somewhat limited, they didn't really open driving lanes for one another.

2) On the other hand, I think both guys played better next to Scheyer, because he's a better shooter, passer and gap driver (meaning he is adept at taking a couple of dribbles, drawing a defender and quickly kicking the ball out. I think Henderson and Scheyer will play well off one another.

3) Gerald has naturally stepped up into more of an assertive position, both as a leader and a player. The one key will be for G not to simply decide he has to score more, but work on rounding out his game, particularly his passing.

Absolutely. G will benefit now because there is no other player like him on the roster. I like your pointing out that G and Sheyer could play off each other well given their skill sets. Since G is the main driver and slasher, do you see his assist total going up substantially? I know they will go up, but if they go up multiple assists more a game that has got to be a sign that Duke is playing well.

greybeard
10-24-2008, 10:38 AM
Completely agree

Partially agree. In terms of scoring, it is not so much a question of quantity (though more is always better) as quality. The best quality would come when the team can create a score through a big when knocking it inside is important. There are also scores in which a big makes it easy. That does not mean that it has to be a monster throw down. Just means that however it is accomplished, and it could be by a great reception, the big dictates to his opponent--says that there is nothing that you could have done to have stopped this.

Both kinds of quality scores impact on the both teams significantly. A goal of the TEAM this year should be to create enough of those kind of scores to matter, in my view.

Jeffrey
10-24-2008, 11:17 AM
Sorry I didn't get back to you until now. I think this is the case for a few reasons:

1) Many of their skills overlap. Both are slashing-type players who prefer to put their heads down and attack the basket. Neither was a great three-point shooter, so when one of them drove, the other guy wasn't the ideal player to have on the opposite wing, waiting for a kickout. And because both players' court vision was somewhat limited, they didn't really open driving lanes for one another.

2) On the other hand, I think both guys played better next to Scheyer, because he's a better shooter, passer and gap driver (meaning he is adept at taking a couple of dribbles, drawing a defender and quickly kicking the ball out. I think Henderson and Scheyer will play well off one another.

3) Gerald has naturally stepped up into more of an assertive position, both as a leader and a player. The one key will be for G not to simply decide he has to score more, but work on rounding out his game, particularly his passing.

Hi Jumbo,

Thanks for the response. I could not agree more with your assessment.

I have two more Gerald/Nelson questions for you, when time permits:

1. Do you think Gerald can step into Nelson's role as our best defensive stopper on the perimeter?

As an aside, I think Jon is very underrated in this role.

2. Do you think Gerald has the strength to power the ball to the rim against the better 4's and 5's?

I think additional strength (which I suspect we will see this season), combined with his great hops and quickness, will make Gerald very hard to stop when he decides to attack the rim. I don't think (and, I suspect, Tyler does not either) Gerald is as soft as some believe.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jumbo
10-24-2008, 12:26 PM
1. Do you think Gerald can step into Nelson's role as our best defensive stopper on the perimeter?
No. Gerald's become a pretty good help defender, and he does a nice enough job on bigger wings. But he's nowhere near the defender DeMarcus was. Gerald can't guard PGs -- not quick enough -- whereas DeMarcus could guard everyone.


2. Do you think Gerald has the strength to power the ball to the rim against the better 4's and 5's?

I think additional strength (which I suspect we will see this season), combined with his great hops and quickness, will make Gerald very hard to stop when he decides to attack the rim. I don't think (and, I suspect, Tyler does not either) Gerald is as soft as some believe.

Well, he clearly can get to the rim. Do I think he can finish when he gets there? Sure, and he did that last year. That's never been Gerald's problem, and I don't know anyone who thinks he's soft.

Jeffrey
10-24-2008, 01:11 PM
Well, he clearly can get to the rim. Do I think he can finish when he gets there? Sure, and he did that last year. That's never been Gerald's problem, and I don't know anyone who thinks he's soft.

Hi Jumbo,

Thanks, I've had other people disagree with my belief that Gerald & Demarcus have similar offensive skill sets and Gerald can finish strong (as Nelson did) and wanted to hear your view (since you know a lot more than I do).

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=202353&postcount=39

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=207942&postcount=10

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jumbo
10-24-2008, 01:14 PM
Hi Jumbo,

Thanks, I've had other people disagree with my belief that Gerald & Demarcus have similar offensive skill sets and Gerald can finish strong (as Nelson did) and wanted to hear your view (since you know a lot more than I).

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=202353&postcount=39

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=207942&postcount=10

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Well, it's not that they have identical skill sets. Markie never had the pull-up jumper that Henderson already owns. And Hendo doesn't see the floor quite as well as Markie (who never saw the floor great, either). Nelson is shiftier. Henderson is more of a straight-line type of driver. But they still have plenty in common.

DukieInBrasil
10-26-2008, 06:49 PM
i put this in another thread too, but itīs worth repeating here as it actually pertains to the Phase 0 set out por nosso amigo Jumbo.
What i learned from the 1st "game"...K is still discovering what his team has to offer. I guess we learned that Miles is can be a solid post player on this team, and that the Showdown at the Point Guard Corral is not over yet. I hope Greg and Nolan let the spirit of competition elevate each others game...

Jumbo
11-10-2008, 01:05 AM
How did Phase 0 work out? Time to look back before looking ahead to the start of the season. Obviously, we don't know much yet, but we have a few answers to the questions I posed.

"So, who's got the point?
Is Paulus vs. Smith a legit battle?"

Yup, and Smith has the upper hand at the moment, at least for the starting job. It remains to be seen who will be on the floor late in a close game.

"And how about the middle?"
Plumlee to start, plenty of Zoubek, some Thomas, too, and very little Singler at the 5. I don't expect much out of that spot, and I don't expect any single guy to get major playing time. But I'm comfortable with what we have entering the season.

"Speaking of Plumlee, are the freshmen ready to contribute?"
As I said originally, Williams yes, Plumlee yes, Czyz no.

"And speaking of Williams, will there be legit competition with Pocius for the 5th perimeter spot?"
We still don't know for sure, but it doesn't look that way. Seems Pocius will again be fighting for scraps, unless there are injury problems.

"Will everyone freak out when Olek Czyz is the new Pocius?"
I thought so at the time, but I'm gaining new hope that people have realized he's really raw, makes a lot of mistakes and needs time to develop. We'll see, though.

"How good is the Singler-Henderson-Scheyer trio?"
You all know how good I think it is. The preseason didn't influence that in any way.

"When is everyone going to realize how good Jon Scheyer is?"
Still a good question. If Duke makes it to NYC in Coaches vs. Cancer, maybe then.

"Is there a role for Dave McClure?"
Still not sure. There are not a lot of minutes to go around. The best spot would be behind Singler, but Thomas has the lead there. Plus, if Dave is in with someone like Plumlee, Thomas or even Zoubek, that's barely any offense from the 4 and 5 positions. I imagine he'll be used as a defensive specialist in some games (from what we've seen) and not see the floor at all in other matchups.

"How will added size and experience manifest itself?"
We haven't really had the chance to see, but I like the confidence the team is expressing.

"So, how will the team handle heightened expectations?"
See above.

I'll post Phase I in a little while.