A Duke Season Preview

[riverside6]

Hey guys, we just posted our Duke Preview and are midst of posting all of our ACC previews this week. Here's the link...

Duke Preview (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBreaker_External.asp?NB=1251)

Here's a snippet of the Duke Preview...


One thing to watch is if the much hyped spread offense for Duke returns this season. Early last season the Blue Devils spread the floor and attacked with penetration and kicked out for threes, an offense Coach K picked up from Mike D'Antoni. It seemed as the season wore along that Duke abandoned this philosophy though, although it received much less attention. It could be because Duke was wearing down, and Mike Krzyzewski is known for limiting his bench during ACC play, and the style of offense just didn't match up with a tired team. This season, will the spread offense return or will the motion offense return with a more experienced team in place?

We've also completed BC and Clemson...

BC Preview (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBreaker_External.asp?NB=1248)
Clemson Preview (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBreaker_External.asp?NB=1249)

As always, let us know what you think.

[Edouble]

I couldn't finish reading it because the awkward writing was really getting on my nerves. I think you need an editor. The use of commas, run-ons, and the use of the same word multiple times in a sentence should be taken care of if you want a really professional looking site.

I thought it was fine content wise, albeit I did not finish the article. Do you really think Parks played above the rim more than the Landlord though?

[riverside6]

I couldn't finish reading it because the awkward writing was really getting on my nerves. I think you need an editor. The use of commas, run-ons, and the use of the same word multiple times in a sentence should be taken care of if you want a really professional looking site.

I thought it was fine content wise, albeit I did not finish the article. Do you really think Parks played above the rim more than the Landlord though?
Edub, care to be my editor? :)

As far as Chief I do believe he played above the rim moreso than Shelden Williams, who blocked shots more with a great sense of timing.

My favorite Cherokee Parks moment...going up for an offensive rebound only to time it wrong, hang on the rim with one hand and catch the ball and dunk it with the other. IIRC, Parks was called for offensive goaltending on his own shot.

[Bluedog]

Thanks for the link riverside6! I'm not quite as harsh as Edouble apparently. Seriously, you couldn't finish it? Harsh! It's really not that long that a couple grammatical mistakes should make it unable to finish. It seems like a reasonable preview to me. On the other hand, the "projected stats" seem unreasonable, especially for G. I realize that these are just automated and you don't personally guess the figures, but if G is 5th on our team in scoring (behind LT!), and his scoring goes down from last season to only 10.2 ppg, we are in a great deal of trouble. It's comforting to see that it is only "65% correct" ;)

[Edouble]

I actually liked the projected stats and noticed as well that LT's scoring was way up there. I admire you really putting your ****s out there with those projections. I would be interested to see which teams end up matching the automated stats and which teams veer far from the projections.

It would also be interesting to see if the projections are most accurate for upperclassmen. For example, I think Paulus' stats will be pretty close to what you're projecting, but after three years, one pretty much knows what to expect. I would bet that the most difficult projections would be for the frosh to soph years, as many players take a big statistical leap during that specific transition.

If G's rebounding numbers decrease, as per the projections, I will be devastated though.

[riverside6]

The projected stats attempt to find similar players over the past 60 years of ACC data. We take the top 10 comps and look what they did the next season and average to project out what that player will do.

A look at our projections for G last season (10.5 ppg, 1.6 apg, 4.7 rpg) are pretty eerily close to the actual (12.7 ppg, 1.6 apg, 4.7 rpg).

That beings said it's not perfect, which is why we have our % correct figures.

A guy like G though has never really put it together and his numbers show that. Some guys like this really never pan out.

A look at G's top comps...

Ben McCauley, Nik Caner-Medley, Mamadi Diane, Brian Asbury, Anthony Richardson, LD Williams, Martice Moore, Luol Deng, Vince Carter

In comparison, there are quite a few that never fulfilled their potential there, which is why his numbers are so low. Of course Deng and Carter obviously did, so he certainly has a breakout factor, something we should probably calculate.

[ACCBBallFan]

Though not a huge loss, you may want to amend the chart to show Duke also lost Taylor King off last year's roster

[Edouble]

The projected stats attempt to find similar players over the past 60 years of ACC data. We take the top 10 comps and look what they did the next season and average to project out what that player will do.
A look at G's top comps...

Ben McCauley, Nik Caner-Medley, Mamadi Diane, Brian Asbury, Anthony Richardson, LD Williams, Martice Moore, Luol Deng, Vince Carter

In comparison, there are quite a few that never fulfilled their potential there, which is why his numbers are so low. Of course Deng and Carter obviously did, so he certainly has a breakout factor, something we should probably calculate.

Does not compute?!?! Deng only played one season. :confused:

[riverside6]

Right, in that case his numbers are excluded for computing the averages for the following season.

[riverside6]

Our FSU preview (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBreaker_External.asp?NB=1253) is up now as well.

[dcarp23]

I realize that these are just automated and you don't personally guess the figures, but if G is 5th on our team in scoring (behind LT!), and his scoring goes down from last season to only 10.2 ppg, we are in a great deal of trouble. It's comforting to see that it is only "65% correct" ;)

While I would be surprised to see it happen, LT scoring more than G would be a huge boon for this team. Per Riverside's projections, Duke is scoring 99 points a game (again, I'll be surprised to see that happen). If that is the case, I'm not worried about much for Duke this year.

[riverside6]

While I would be surprised to see it happen, LT scoring more than G would be a huge boon for this team. Per Riverside's projections, Duke is scoring 99 points a game (again, I'll be surprised to see that happen). If that is the case, I'm not worried about much for Duke this year.
dcarp, as has been mentioned previously the projections are not perfect. They are calculated automatically given historical precedent for similar players.

Realistically, I highly doubt Lance Thomas will average double-figures.

[jimsumner]

"Per Riverside's projections, Duke is scoring 99 points a game (again, I'll be surprised to see that happen).

Surprised doesn't even begin to cover it. No ACC team has ever been in the same zip code as 99ppg.

[dcarp23]

dcarp, as has been mentioned previously the projections are not perfect. They are calculated automatically given historical precedent for similar players.

Realistically, I highly doubt Lance Thomas will average double-figures.

No, I realize that. I certainly wasn't meaning to be critical. I enjoy reading projections such as these--comparison based projections provide a unique insight into a player that you might not otherwise get.

[riverside6]

Jim always love the insight.

The projections look at each player separately, so it certainly doesn't mean we are projecting Duke to score 100 ppg.

[jimsumner]

"The projections look at each player separately, so it certainly doesn't mean we are projecting Duke to score 100 ppg."

Yes, I know. But they are sort of related. :)

[SilkyJ]

"The projections look at each player separately, so it certainly doesn't mean we are projecting Duke to score 100 ppg."

Yes, I know. But they are sort of related. :)

non-sense. basketball is an individual sport. Dave Mcclure will definite average 8ppg. oops, meant 8mpg.