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View Full Version : Andy Katz's Top-25



Ignatius07
10-13-2008, 07:37 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?id=3640708

Katz puts Duke in his "second tier" - between 9 and 16.

mo.st.dukie
10-14-2008, 12:01 AM
No surprise. The last thing people remember about Duke last season was how bad they looked in postseason play. They are forgetting how awesome Duke played during a 12 game winning streak which included a victory in Chapel Hill. In due time, Duke will prove themselves worthy of elite status. Don't forget, Florida wasn't even ranked prior to the 05-06 season.

CameronCrazy'11
10-14-2008, 12:26 AM
Didn't Katz have us at 4 or 5 a few months ago? Why the change of heart Andy? Seriously though, it's hard to know how good this team's going to be. If Zoubek or one of the freshman forwards steps up in a big way, or if Singler and/or Henderson have the All-American season they seem capable of, then we're fighting for #1 with Carolina. If those things don't really happen, and our players aren't much better than they were last year, then we're probably 8-10ish. Seems like nobody who's not a Duke fan is predicting great things for us. I think they're in for a surprise.

Bob Green
10-14-2008, 12:56 AM
Seems like nobody who's not a Duke fan is predicting great things for us.

This is a nice position to be in for a change! I have no problem with the ranking Andy Katz has given us. He states the same thing many of us say on this board in that our inside game is still a question mark. We need Zoubek, Thomas and/or one of the freshmen to step up and prove they got game.

BlueintheFace
10-14-2008, 01:25 AM
This is a nice position to be in for a change! I have no problem with the ranking Andy Katz has given us. He states the same thing many of us say on this board in that our inside game is still a question mark. We need Zoubek, Thomas and/or one of the freshmen to step up and prove they got game.

Yep, and it is an accurate assessment.

If Duke doesn't get the defensive and offensive contributions it needs from that position this year then Sweet16/Elite Eight is probably the ceiling...

If Duke does get that contribution --- no ceiling.

It sounds so simplistic, but it really is the issue that will come to define our success this season. For once simplistic statements by pundits about our depth down low really will be fair and appropriate.

We can most likely count on steady perimeter play with our depth, and none of our players should be playing out of position this season. We have great experience... good three point shooters (see- entire backcourt plus Kyle) and on-ball defenders (see Nolan, Gerald, and maybe Elliot). We have strong leaders (see- three junior/senior captains). We return over 80% of our scoring. We really have no other obvious question marks.

From the pre-season everything looks better than good with the exception of post play. Post play is THE story of the season. I'm cautiously optimistic and really ready to see how it all plays out.

davekay1971
10-14-2008, 09:46 AM
Agreed with the above sentiments that it's kind of nice to be quietly cruising in the "second tier." These preseason polls mean nothing, of course. I think when you look at Duke, at the talent and experience we return, we have the potential to be a championship contender. Some things need to happen for us, of course, and we need to be lucky with avoiding injuries to key people. But it would be a mistake to assign any given "ceiling" to this team at this time.

I was interested to see Oklahoma in the first tier. It's good to see Jeff Caple getting some run this early. I'd love to see him make OU a premier program in the Big 12.

davekay1971
10-14-2008, 09:50 AM
Also, looking at that article was the first time I've hit a college hoops page in a while. I was surprised at my own visceral reaction to the sight of Softy T and the Powder Blue Posse. Instant loathing...hatred...disgust.

I've got a baby girl due November 3, and I'm afraid that, with her in my arms while I watch ACC hoops, her first words may end up being "*&$@ing tarholes!"

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-14-2008, 10:00 AM
Also, looking at that article was the first time I've hit a college hoops page in a while. I was surprised at my own visceral reaction to the sight of Softy T and the Powder Blue Posse. Instant loathing...hatred...disgust.

I've got a baby girl due November 3, and I'm afraid that, with her in my arms while I watch ACC hoops, her first words may end up being "*&$@ing tarholes!"

First of all, congratulations and good luck. Our son was born mid-season a few years back and I was banished to another room to watch games. Thankfully they don't retain language that early but you sure can scare them with a yell or two. Now that he's almost three, I gotta be really careful!

Lavabe
10-14-2008, 10:31 AM
Also, looking at that article was the first time I've hit a college hoops page in a while. I was surprised at my own visceral reaction to the sight of Softy T and the Powder Blue Posse. Instant loathing...hatred...disgust.

I've got a baby girl due November 3, and I'm afraid that, with her in my arms while I watch ACC hoops, her first words may end up being "*&$@ing tarholes!"

Maybe it would be better if her first words were "Nine eff!"
Congrats on the girl!!

Cheers,
Lavabe

whereinthehellami
10-14-2008, 10:34 AM
I'm not convinced that without a better post presensce this year we are doomed for a repeat of last year (no farther than sweet 16). It'll be a harder road for sure but Duke has the pieces and the talent to go far in March. I think Duke is being underrated this year.

You will not find a better starting four than Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler. Throw in Smith and Williams and Duke's talent and athletiscm goes thru the roof. Add in Zoubek, McClure, Thomas, Plumlee, and Olek as role players and that is more than enough to get to the final four.

There are other teams that have more athletiscm and look better on paper (height) but I wouldn't put any money on them to beat Duke. Most of the Duke players have high basketball IQs and come from winning high school programs. These intangibles add up and spill over onto the court, where the results are seen.

It all starts with Paulus. A talented guy with some limitations (lateral quickness). A winner who has been beaten the last few years in March. This kid is a warrior who will set the tone for this season. He's gonna be a real captain and rock for the squad this year. Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler should all be tougher mentally and ready to take a collective "next step". All three will have the option to play ball professionally.

This is gonna be a fun year. Duke should be top five for most of the year. Losses should be few and far between and this team will go into March with a different attitude.

Kedsy
10-14-2008, 10:47 AM
If Duke doesn't get the defensive and offensive contributions it needs from that position this year then Sweet16/Elite Eight is probably the ceiling...


I agree we need someone to step up as an inside defensive presence (other than Singler), but I strongly disagree that we need any significant offensive contribution from the post to achieve great things. There's plenty of offense at the other four positions. Duke is going to score a lot of points even if it gets nothing from the 5 spot.

Diddy
10-14-2008, 11:01 AM
The team from last January would have gone deep into March last year, but for getting tired.

Mostly, that was Singler. Part of that was Frosh fatigue, but most of it was Singler being forced to guard guys he had no business guarding. If we can get even capable post play from someone, I don't really care who, we will be fine in March. So long as Singler doesn't have to wear down by banging with C's all year, we will be solid. If he does wear down, well, the first weekend will be dangerous again.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
10-14-2008, 12:14 PM
Health is what we need. It's no accident that Hendo's injury at UNC coincided with our precipitous fall from grace. Then the flu hit during the first week of the NCAA's and left our main guys completely unable to play to their normal level. In fact, I'd go so far as to say I've never seen a run of injuries and illness like Duke has had since 2005 (when we lost an entire starting 5 for health reasons.) Nelson, Shav, and Brian (so far) essentially lost their entire careers to health issues. Dave, Greg, Gerald, and Marty have all lost a season. And many other have missed critical time as well.

I'm not sure if it's just been bad luck, if our practice habits/facilities are flawed in some way, or what, but our health issues have been unprecedented and cost us ACC titles and NCAA games every season since 2005. Until we prove we can stay healthy Katz has us right, but if everyone can stay healthy we'll be FF contenders. If we can also find a legit post presence and depth we should be as good as any team in the nation.

BD80
10-14-2008, 12:59 PM
The team from last January would have gone deep into March last year, but for getting tired.

Mostly, that was Singler. Part of that was Frosh fatigue, but most of it was Singler being forced to guard guys he had no business guarding. If we can get even capable post play from someone, I don't really care who, we will be fine in March. So long as Singler doesn't have to wear down by banging with C's all year, we will be solid. If he does wear down, well, the first weekend will be dangerous again.

Anyone remember that much of our fatigue against WVU was due to flu like symptoms?

Anyone remember that Zoubek was dealing with injuries?

We lost a key player, but return 8 of our top 9 players, return an athletic wing (Marty) who redshirted, and add 3 freshmen who address specific needs.

We should be in great shape from a roster standpoint. Frankly, I don't see us at a great disadvantage, even in the frontcourt.

Where did the prevailing opinion of Zoubek being so slow come from? When he was being recruited, I recall it being said that he was relatively quick down the court for such a big man. The brief minutes he as been on the court in a Duke uniform, he appears to get down the court fairly well, particularly on the defensive end. He may not be the first down court, but there are few that out-hustle him. With his injury behind him, I don't see Z as a problem, I see him as an asset few teams can handle.

gw67
10-14-2008, 01:24 PM
I agree with BD80. The roster of this year's team is deep, including the frontcourt, and there is a good deal of talent. The Devils should be able to line up against any team.

I also agree that Zoubek runs the court well for a youngster his size. Like most, I hope that the big men are good complementary players to Singler and a terrific set of perimeter players.

gw67

Kedsy
10-14-2008, 01:39 PM
Anyone remember that much of our fatigue against WVU was due to flu like symptoms?

Thank you, BD. I've been trying to say this for some time. If not for the flu, I'm convinced we would have beaten WVU and probably Xavier as well.

I will say, however, that Singler's fatigue was evident for the last several weeks of the season. Just look at his 3 pt. shooting pct decline; and it seemed like all the shots were short, which suggests tired legs.



Anyone remember that Zoubek was dealing with injuries?

We lost a key player, but return 8 of our top 9 players, return an athletic wing (Marty) who redshirted, and add 3 freshmen who address specific needs.

We should be in great shape from a roster standpoint. Frankly, I don't see us at a great disadvantage, even in the frontcourt.


I agree. I love the way this team has been built.



Where did the prevailing opinion of Zoubek being so slow come from? When he was being recruited, I recall it being said that he was relatively quick down the court for such a big man. The brief minutes he as been on the court in a Duke uniform, he appears to get down the court fairly well, particularly on the defensive end. He may not be the first down court, but there are few that out-hustle him. With his injury behind him, I don't see Z as a problem, I see him as an asset few teams can handle.

I really hope you're right about this one. But my opinion of him being slow has come from watching him. He may get down the court well for a guy his size. His speed would be more than adequate for a team that plays predominantly half-court offense. But at least when I was watching he couldn't keep up with his teammates when Duke ran up-tempo. Plus he often seemed to be out of position on defense, which I (perhaps erroneously) attributed to slow feet.

-bdbd
10-14-2008, 02:09 PM
I agree with BD80. The roster of this year's team is deep, including the frontcourt, and there is a good deal of talent. The Devils should be able to line up against any team.

I also agree that Zoubek runs the court well for a youngster his size. Like most, I hope that the big men are good complementary players to Singler and a terrific set of perimeter players.

gw67

I agree that we have much greater depth and overall athleticism this year than in recent campaigns. Especially with Nolan Smith, Williams, Olek, McClure, Plumlee and Z or Lance all coming off the bench, we really shouldn't wear down like we did last year. BUT I do worry about our stength at the 5. It really won't matter that we have 4 guys who COULD play the 5 if none of them steps up to a high performance level. Put another way, if your other four positions all rate out as 5-stars (out of 5), but you only have a 2 or 3-star group at the 5, then you will be susceptible to a strong inside game all day.

What we really have to hope for is that more practice competition breeds better game performance. And that through daily tough workouts, at least one of these guys steps it up to a higher level.

I truly see us as very strong on the perimeter - truly dominating against many opponents - but we could struggle against the elite teams that ALSO bring an top-notch inside game, we could struggle. Like the UNC's, UCONN's, Kansas' of the world.

But coach K has long professed the virtues of strong daily practice competition in player development.... so we shall see... Can't Wait!!

-BDBD

BD80
10-14-2008, 03:08 PM
... [Zoubek]often seemed to be out of position on defense, which I (perhaps erroneously) attributed to slow feet.

I think we all agree that Z's footwork on D is an issue. Hopefully it is an issue he has worked on and his injury issues were part of the problem. A big part of it is his anticipation in moving to help on the weak side. We really did not see enough of him last year to get a feel for his progress.

I do remember how high Coach K was on Z. This is about the right time for him to blossom. The practices should provide a very high level proving ground.

gumbomoop
10-14-2008, 05:24 PM
For a consensus ranking from several preseason mags, check out this link:

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/the-preview-magazines-consensus-top-25-118869