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View Full Version : 3 "if's" that need to happen for 2009-2010



houstondukie
10-04-2008, 02:27 PM
(This year's team has the potential to be very good and I know I'm looking ahead too much, but we're fans so let's have some fun with this...)

1. Kyle Singler returns for Junior season (> 75% likely)
2. Gerald Henderson returns for Senior season (50-50)
3. Kenny Boynton signs w/ Duke (50-50)

Starters:
PG Nolan Smith Jr.
SG Jon Scheyer Sr.
SF Gerald Henderson Sr.
PF Kyle Singler Jr.
C Brian Zoubek Sr.

Bench Players:
Kenny Boynton - Fr.
Elliot Williams - So.
Lance Thomas - Sr.
Mason Plumnee - Fr.
Ryan Kelly??? - Fr.

Miles Plumnee - So.
Marty Pocious - Sr.
Olek Czyz - So.

This could be one of Duke's best teams ever (on paper). Every starter is a Jr/Sr. with Henderson and Singler potential NPOY. Our bench alone would be a top 10-15 team.

The crazy thing is that we have a very good shot for this to happen.

My gut tells me Henderson will come back for his senior year because he'll want to accomplish something great at Duke and leave a better legacy. But I could be wrong.

Singler doesn't seem to be in any rush to leave. He didn't even flirt with idea after the end of the past season. Some think he is a 4 year player (I don't think he will stay all 4 years), so I'm betting he comes back for his Junior season.

Boynton is the toughest "what if" in my opinion to fall in Duke's favor. Hopefully his friendship w/ Nolan and Elliot and the very good chance to win a national championship will make him pick us.

Please don't post about how "it's too early to talk about this" or "don't overlook this season." I realize this. It's just fun speculation.

ice-9
10-04-2008, 02:33 PM
The key variable is how we do this season. If we win a championship, I expect at least Singler and Henderson to leave, and possibly a third or fourth player. Even if we get to the Final Four I think there's a high chance both will leave. If we have another first weekend exit, both will probably stay.

But you know what...I think the team this year is going to be pretty damn good. So I expect some attrition next year.

houstondukie
10-04-2008, 02:43 PM
The key variable is how we do this season. If we win a championship, I expect at least Singler and Henderson to leave, and possibly a third or fourth player. Even if we get to the Final Four I think there's a high chance both will leave. If we have another first weekend exit, both will probably stay.

But you know what...I think the team this year is going to be pretty damn good. So I expect some attrition next year.

Possibly a third or fourth player? Who else could possibly leave?

Scheyer has "4 year player" written all over him.

If we win it all (in which case, I wouldn't care if everyone left for the NBA), that means that we got very good play from Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek, but no way either will even think about leaving early.

Elliot Williams will be playing behind too many guys his freshmen year. He won't have the opportunities to show he is a first-rounder.

Maybe Nolan Smith? But he would have to outplay Paulus for the starting job and have an awesome season to leave after this year. I expect great things from Nolan this upcoming year, but, like Elliot, he won't get enough opportunities to show he is a first rounder.

Back to my original post, those are really the only "what if's" to consider.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
10-04-2008, 02:51 PM
Frankly, I'd trade any one of those "ifs" to see us develop a legit low-post threat on both ends. Not necessarily a superstar (ECS) but a solid 2-3 man rotation that can hold its own at the 5 in terms of rebounding, blocked shots, help D for penetration and reliable scoring throughout the game and when we need an easy bucket. A group of Sr Z + a Plumlee (or Olek + Lance, or whatever) that could do that would set Kyle free and protect him from foul trouble/being worn down.

With two game-changers (from the trio of Kyle, Hendo and Kenny) plus what I expect from Jon, Nolan, and Email I think we're the odds on favorite as long as we aren't playing donut basketball as we have since Shel graduated. Still, whatever happens I think we're just on the cusp of returning to the heights that K is used to navigating. If we can make it through this (Tar Heel-dominated) season I'm giddy about what the future holds.

BlueintheFace
10-04-2008, 04:30 PM
If we go to the final four or win a championship, you better believe Zoubek will have had a huge part in it. He would be the third player I presume. Ask yourself this. How many seven foot starters on final four teams come back for another season? I'm sure it happens, but think about it...

houstondukie
10-04-2008, 05:18 PM
If we go to the final four or win a championship, you better believe Zoubek will have had a huge part in it. He would be the third player I presume. Ask yourself this. How many seven foot starters on final four teams come back for another season? I'm sure it happens, but think about it...

The notion that, if Duke wins a national championship this year, Zoubek could go pro is crazy talk.

Bob Green
10-04-2008, 06:30 PM
Talk about getting the cart in front of the horse, this thread appears to dismiss the entire 2008/09 season. Practice for this season is set to start in less than two weeks but this thread addresses what needs to happen next season - ridiculous!

Let's focus our collective energy on this season. I intend to enjoy the ride.

jimsumner
10-04-2008, 07:52 PM
"How many seven foot starters on final four teams come back for another season"

How many teams, final four or otherwise, even have seven-footers? But Roy Hibbert is one and I'd be real surprised if Zoubek ends this season with draft prosepects higher than Hibbert had after the '07 season. And Horford and Noah came back after UF's first title season. They may not be seven-footers but they can see it from where they are.

And yes, I'd rather talk about the '08-'09 season. There's still a few weeks left in the season.

houstondukie
10-04-2008, 08:44 PM
Talk about getting the cart in front of the horse, this thread appears to dismiss the entire 2008/09 season. Practice for this season is set to start in less than two weeks but this thread addresses what needs to happen next season - ridiculous!

Let's focus our collective energy on this season. I intend to enjoy the ride.

Did you not read the first and last sentences from my original post?

I agree with you that this thread is looking way in advance, but that's the point. It's just for fun.

Bob Green
10-05-2008, 05:48 AM
Did you not read the first and last sentences from my original post?

I read your whole post but I'm of the opinion it is time to talk about this year.

Ignatius07
10-05-2008, 09:40 AM
I read your whole post but I'm of the opinion it is time to talk about this year.

Houston, you are fighting an uphill battle, my man, but I agree there's nothing wrong with a thread on 09-10. I agree it's time to talk this year - but we can have multiple threads and this one was started, so why not entertain the notion?

I agree with your general hypothesis that if those three things happen (Singler and Gerald stay, Kenny commits), we would seem to be favorites. However I don't think we would even need all three to happen to be favorites, and I frankly do not expect all three to happen. I would be happy with two. I think Singler will be back next season, though it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that he could declare. This is a (supposedly) weak draft, so who knows? I kind of think that Gerald will leave just because I expect a great deal of the offense to flow through him if things are going well. And Boynton seems to be 50-50 so it's hard to make a prediction there. But really getting 2 of those 3 guys on campus next year would be a coup in itself. Gerald might actually be the least expendable of the above players in terms of his skillset.

I have high hopes for Zoubek and Nolan this year, but I don't think either will be declaring for the draft after this season. Nolan is a possibility, but he would really have to have a phenomenal year and show that he is able to play the point on the next level. I just don't think that will happen this season, since he hasn't even shown that he can play the point in college.

Edouble
10-05-2008, 11:20 AM
If we go to the final four or win a championship, you better believe Zoubek will have had a huge part in it. He would be the third player I presume. Ask yourself this. How many seven foot starters on final four teams come back for another season? I'm sure it happens, but think about it...

Brendan Haywood and Roy Hibert come to mind immediately as 7 footers that returned for their senior year after a Final Four.

Can you give me a 7 footer that did not return for their senior year after a Final Four? Greg Oden's the only 7 footer to play in a recent Final Four that left early, that I can remember.

There just aren't enough 7 footers in the game these days, much less 7 footers playing in Final Fours, to set a precedent IMO.

Kedsy
10-05-2008, 11:22 AM
1. Kyle Singler returns for Junior season (> 75% likely)
2. Gerald Henderson returns for Senior season (50-50)
3. Kenny Boynton signs w/ Duke (50-50)


I agree that we should be talking about this year. However, since this thread is here, and it's not about football, I'll join in. The odds you assign are very optimistic. I don't think any of your three "if's" have as much as a 50% chance of happening and a couple of them are probably much lower. I think we'll be lucky if even one of your three "if's" actually occur. That said, I still think the team will be pretty good.

Now back to 2008-2009.

And speaking of 2008-09, I have a question. In many years there seem to have been people who got a glimpse of the September pickup games among the Duke players. I haven't seen anything like that this year. Have the pickup games been closed? Have people seen them and just not posted? Or have people been talking about it and I missed it? Or am I deluded and nobody ever talked about such things?

Edouble
10-05-2008, 11:45 AM
And speaking of 2008-09, I have a question. In many years there seem to have been people who got a glimpse of the September pickup games among the Duke players. I haven't seen anything like that this year. Have the pickup games been closed? Have people seen them and just not posted? Or have people been talking about it and I missed it? Or am I deluded and nobody ever talked about such things?

Good question, but with serious potential for a big time thread hijacking. I think you should start a separate thread with this question. I'm sure it will get responses.

trinity92
10-05-2008, 04:31 PM
(This year's team has the potential to be very good and I know I'm looking ahead too much, but we're fans so let's have some fun with this...)

1. Kyle Singler returns for Junior season (> 75% likely)
2. Gerald Henderson returns for Senior season (50-50)
3. Kenny Boynton signs w/ Duke (50-50)
[/B]

I'm not much of a math guy, but without addressing either the chance of either KS or GH returning individually, I'm of the opinion it is very unlikely that both of them return. I would be happy to be wrong, but I choose to be glum and hope for pleasant surprises rather than expect the best when it comes to early departures. I suspect this is a pain avoidance behavior I developed in response to our loss of Will Avery.

FWIW, adding the vagaries of recruiting to the mix, I would calculate the chances of all three of KS, GH and KB suiting up for Duke in 2009 to be virtually nil.

Disclaimer: If you had asked me before the 2008 NBA draft whether both KS and GH would both suit up for us this year, I probably would have given a similar opinion, so let that be an indication of my predictive abilities ;)

Kedsy
10-05-2008, 08:23 PM
Good question, but with serious potential for a big time thread hijacking. I think you should start a separate thread with this question. I'm sure it will get responses.

OK, I did that.

chrisheery
10-05-2008, 08:50 PM
[B]SF Gerald Henderson Sr.

I mean, I love Gerald's dad as much as the next guy. He was a great player in his day, but I just don't know if he can still get it done. No, I think I would rather have his son, GH Jr stick around if possible.







. . . yes, I'm kidding.

mapei
10-05-2008, 10:02 PM
I read your whole post but I'm of the opinion it is time to talk about this year.

However, there does not seem to be a thread on the subject. ;)

whereinthehellami
10-06-2008, 08:52 AM
1. Kyle singler returns for junior season (> 75% likely)
2. Gerald henderson returns for senior season (50-50)
3. Kenny boynton signs w/ duke (50-50)

1. 45-55
2. 25-75
3. 5-95



bench players:
kenny boynton - fr.


There is no way Boynton doesn't start if he comes to Duke. That kind of talent doesn't sit, especially when that player can't be stopped consistently from scoring.

COYS
10-06-2008, 12:20 PM
There is no way Boynton doesn't start if he comes to Duke. That kind of talent doesn't sit, especially when that player can't be stopped consistently from scoring.

He is quite a talent, but a talent like that can also be devastating coming of the bench. I may have mentioned this in another thread, but Marvin Williams (cringe) came off the bench for the 2005 Tar Hole team, was very effective, and even translated that success into a number 2 pick in the draft. If Boynton were to decide on Duke, it would be quite a shot in the arm to insert Boynton in for Scheyer, Smith, or Williams at any given point. That's a lot of fire power coming off the bench and, perhaps more importantly, by coming off the bench, he can focus on coming in and doing what he does best, scoring and creating plays. It may even be easier to play in that role than it would be to start and play off the ball as a third or fourth option on offense . . . but yeah, this is all just speculation.

Ignatius07
10-06-2008, 12:25 PM
1. 45-55
2. 25-75
3. 5-95

There is no way Boynton doesn't start if he comes to Duke. That kind of talent doesn't sit, especially when that player can't be stopped consistently from scoring.

Your first two estimates are legitimate guesses, but 5-95 that Boynton comes to Duke? You must have some information that nobody else on the planet has.

dukestheheat
10-06-2008, 08:26 PM
houston dukie-

I do see both Henderson and Singler leaving after this year; that's not good news but we live in a different world now versus 'then'. The elite players don't stay in college anymore (usually).

dth.

RainingThrees
10-06-2008, 09:47 PM
If Singler and Henderson leave it will hurt a little but we will be fine. Elliot will take over for Gerald and Singler's spot can go Mason Plumlee or someone from the 2010 class.

whereinthehellami
10-07-2008, 07:43 AM
Your first two estimates are legitimate guesses, but 5-95 that Boynton comes to Duke? You must have some information that nobody else on the planet has.

Just my opinion after following recruiting for many a year and picking up bits and pieces from articles and quotes from the Boyntons. It would be nice to be wrong but i think the Kid has this one locked up.

jv001
10-07-2008, 09:16 AM
This year's team wins it all and then everyone comes back to make it back to back titles. Well I can wish can't I?

Classof06
10-07-2008, 12:06 PM
I still don't understand why people think Singler coming back is less likely than Henderson coming back. For starters, Henderson's a year older. Next, his game and style is much more NBA ready than Singler's. I'm still of the opinion that Singler is a four-year player. And that doesn't mean that he's not talented; it's about the way his skill set translates to the league. We've only seen Singler for a season and my opinion is certainly subject to change but as of now, he reminds me of a Duke player that plays 4 years then goes on to have a solid but not spectacular NBA career.

I personally do not expect Duke to seriously contend for a national title until 2009-10. As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong. Until we actually see the team, there's no way to know.

Getting Boynton would drastically increase Duke's chances in 09-10 but if he doesn't come then we'd need both KS and GH to return. That being said, if Henderson and Singler leave, I think that would mean Duke has the kind of season in 08-09 (FF, national championship) that I wouldn't bet on them having as of today.

jimsumner
10-07-2008, 12:53 PM
"As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong."

I think two things have changed. One is experience. The 2007 team had one upperclassman in the rotation, a junior Nelson. Last year's team had two, Nelson and Paulus, with McClure and Pocius hampered by injuries. This year's team has Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, maybe Pocius. Much, much more experience.

The second should be a much stronger team inside. Start with a presumably healthier Zoubek and McClure, add the two freshman bigs, and finish with a stronger, more mature Singler, and I think you go from a team that struggled to survive inside to a team that may well be able to dominate inside.

You're right that pretty soon we can start speculating based on what we're actually seeing rather than what we think or hope we might see.

COYS
10-07-2008, 01:08 PM
"As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong."

I think two things have changed. One is experience. The 2007 team had one upperclassman in the rotation, a junior Nelson. Last year's team had two, Nelson and Paulus, with McClure and Pocius hampered by injuries. This year's team has Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, maybe Pocius. Much, much more experience.

The second should be a much stronger team inside. Start with a presumably healthier Zoubek and McClure, add the two freshman bigs, and finish with a stronger, more mature Singler, and I think you go from a team that struggled to survive inside to a team that may well be able to dominate inside.

Jim, I agree wholeheartedly. I would also add that we can also hope for fewer injuries and other ailments. Not to make excuses and I know the team wouldn't make excuses, either, but Nolan wasn't the same after he strained his knee, Zoubek was hurt by injuries before the season started and then in the middle of the season, Henderson had his wrist injury, Thomas wasn't healthy, and then Demarcus had the flu during the first weekend of the tourney. Injuries are part of the game, but hopefully next year we'll have more luck. I still think we could've/should've beaten WVU, but if all of Jim's predictions come true and we're healthy, we won't look anything like the same team that lost in the first weekend come March.

houstondukie
10-08-2008, 07:32 PM
I still don't understand why people think Singler coming back is less likely than Henderson coming back. For starters, Henderson's a year older. Next, his game and style is much more NBA ready than Singler's. I'm still of the opinion that Singler is a four-year player. And that doesn't mean that he's not talented; it's about the way his skill set translates to the league. We've only seen Singler for a season and my opinion is certainly subject to change but as of now, he reminds me of a Duke player that plays 4 years then goes on to have a solid but not spectacular NBA career.

I personally do not expect Duke to seriously contend for a national title until 2009-10. As far as this year's team, I just don't think that much has changed from last season, though I certainly hope I'm wrong. Until we actually see the team, there's no way to know.

Getting Boynton would drastically increase Duke's chances in 09-10 but if he doesn't come then we'd need both KS and GH to return. That being said, if Henderson and Singler leave, I think that would mean Duke has the kind of season in 08-09 (FF, national championship) that I wouldn't bet on them having as of today.

I completely agree. Singler is no rush to leave. He didn't even think about testing the NBA waters this past year.

Think about it? If Singler was thinking on leaving after this upcoming season, why wouldn't he at least put his name in this past year's draft and not sign w/ an agent.

Many college players these days are doing this in order to get a free evaluation by NBA scouts on things they need to work on. NCAA rules allows a player to do this only once, which means players have to use it strategically. In my opinion, Singler will test the waters after his sophomore season and ultimately leave after his junior season.

Predicting Henderson's and Boynton's decisions is much harder.

Kedsy
10-08-2008, 08:47 PM
Think about it? If Singler was thinking on leaving after this upcoming season, why wouldn't he at least put his name in this past year's draft and not sign w/ an agent.


Because there's a limit to how many times you can test the waters and come back (and I'm pretty sure that limit is 1). If he did it after his freshman year then he wouldn't be able to test the waters after his sophomore year, which is the year where it will make more sense for him to try.

houstondukie
10-08-2008, 10:00 PM
Because there's a limit to how many times you can test the waters and come back (and I'm pretty sure that limit is 1). If he did it after his freshman year then he wouldn't be able to test the waters after his sophomore year, which is the year where it will make more sense for him to try.


i know this. i said the same thing in my post.

Kedsy
10-08-2008, 10:42 PM
i know this. i said the same thing in my post.

OK, yes, now that I re-read your post, I see it. My bad.

But I'm not sure I understand your assertion, then. For almost every kid who tests the waters, if the waters suggest the kid will go in the lottery the kid stays in. For a lot of kids, if it looks like first round they stay in. If you think Singler will test the waters after this year why don't you think he'll stay in the draft? Do you think his potential draft position won't be good enough? Do you believe he'll think he needs the scouts' opinions because K won't be able to tell him what he needs to work on? Why would he go through all that if he doesn't intend to bolt?