ACC Preview - Maryland

[gw67]

The DBR season preview for Maryland is fair and the bottom line conclusion is on the money. From my perspective, I would make the following points:

• I believe the Korean youngster is Jin Soo Kim but I may be wrong.
• The three returning starters, Vasquez, Hayes and Milbourne are ACC-quality players. These three along with Mosley, Tucker, Bowie and Kim give the Terps strong perimeter play. I would rank them just behind Duke, UNC and Miami in this regard.
• Given what I saw last year, their inside game is non-existent and depends on the growth of a couple of sophs who made minimal contributions last year.
• The key to their season, IMO, will be the development of their five sophs plus Mosley.
• I think that they would play to their strength by playing four of their outside players at a time, particularly in conference. However, I would be very surprised if Williams is willing to deviate from his set offense.
• Based on an improved ACC and the most difficult conference schedule, I foresee a conference record of 6-10 or 7-9. An overall record of 16-15 would be a successful season, IMO.

gw67

[SMO]

If the Terps finish at or below .500 does anyone think Gary is gone?

[gw67]

I only have two data points (two close friends who are alums, including one who has connections to the athletic department) but they seem to think that there will be some pressure if they have a so-so season and more pressure if they have a losing season. Neither thinks he will be replaced and both shudder at the possibility of the current AD making that decision under any circumstances.

One thing in his favor is that last year's kids graduated and the next three classes are on schedule to graduate. From my perspective, he needs to bring in some good players in the 2010 class. The current team only loses one player next year (unless Vasquez turns pro).

gw67

[just_wondering]

weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/recruiting/2008/09/ncaa_clears_goins.html

The basketball program also has a new conditioning coach. For a team that tired down the stretch the last two years that is perhaps a very significant development.

Do not overlook Dave Neal. He has increased vertical leap in the off season

[pfrduke]

weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/recruiting/2008/09/ncaa_clears_goins.html

The basketball program also has a new conditioning coach. For a team that tired down the stretch the last two years that is perhaps a very significant development.

Do not overlook Dave Neal. He has increased vertical leap in the off season

So he's improved from jumping over a deck of cards to jumping over a phone book?

[hurleyfor3]

If the Terps finish at or below .500 does anyone think Gary is gone?

Depends on how many of those losses are against us.

[bradjenk]

The DBR season preview for Maryland is fair and the bottom line conclusion is on the money. From my perspective, I would make the following points:

• I believe the Korean youngster is Jin Soo Kim but I may be wrong.
• The three returning starters, Vasquez, Hayes and Milbourne are ACC-quality players. These three along with Mosley, Tucker, Bowie and Kim give the Terps strong perimeter play. I would rank them just behind Duke, UNC and Miami in this regard.
• Given what I saw last year, their inside game is non-existent and depends on the growth of a couple of sophs who made minimal contributions last year.
• The key to their season, IMO, will be the development of their five sophs plus Mosley.
• I think that they would play to their strength by playing four of their outside players at a time, particularly in conference. However, I would be very surprised if Williams is willing to deviate from his set offense.
• Based on an improved ACC and the most difficult conference schedule, I foresee a conference record of 6-10 or 7-9. An overall record of 16-15 would be a successful season, IMO.

gw67

I wonder if Gary will adjust to the weakness of the inside game. I don't think he has ever liked to play without 2 true post players. I mean he played Caner-Medley at the 3 for four years as a slow 6'8" 240 pounder. Coach K would never have done that. I just can't see Maryland being successful playing 2 fulltime post players for 40 minutes when they are not among the best 7 players on the team.

[gw67]

Several of Williams' teams have had big kids playing the small forward position in his flex offense. On the current team, Milbourne and Tucker are well suited for this position and Kim may be as well. The issue, as we have noted, is their inside game and Williams' reliance on the flex . Dupree and Burney were well regarded coming out of high school and perhaps both will step up this year but I think it is wishful thinking.

I think a line-up of Vasquez, Hayes, Milbourne, Tucker and Dupree/Burney with Mosley, Bowie, Kim and Goins off the bench is their best line-up IMO; particularly, during a year when very few teams are strong inside. However, I doubt that Williams will go in this direction.

gw67

[just_wondering]

Several of Williams' teams have had big kids playing the small forward position in his flex offense. On the current team, Milbourne and Tucker are well suited for this position and Kim may be as well. The issue, as we have noted, is their inside game and Williams' reliance on the flex . Dupree and Burney were well regarded coming out of high school and perhaps both will step up this year but I think it is wishful thinking.

I think a line-up of Vasquez, Hayes, Milbourne, Tucker and Dupree/Burney with Mosley, Bowie, Kim and Goins off the bench is their best line-up IMO; particularly, during a year when very few teams are strong inside. However, I doubt that Williams will go in this direction.

gw67

GW67

The word is that Bowie looked very good over the summer. Dave Neal got considerable playing time last year battling injuries. I would guess that he will be a captain and will play the power forward 10 to 15 minutes per game.

[pfrduke]

• Based on an improved ACC and the most difficult conference schedule, I foresee a conference record of 6-10 or 7-9. An overall record of 16-15 would be a successful season, IMO.

gw67

Certainly won't disagree as to their conference record. But given their OOC (which is kind of embarrassingly easy) I think it'll be more like 18-12. They have an outside shot to go 20-10, 7-9 in the ACC.

Their OOC = no true road games, GW in the BB&T (neutral site), and the Old Spice Tournament (a pretty impressive field, including MSU (Maryland's first round opponent), the Zags, and Tennessee). Their opponents are, well, light - Bucknell, Youngstown St, Vermont, American, Delaware State, Bryant, Elon, Charlotte, Morgan St, and Michigan in the ACC/Big 10. That's a 12-2 OOC record just waiting to happen, and with a touch of luck, it could be 13-1. If they only go 10-4 (or worse) against that slate of opponents, they'll be lucky to get 5 conference wins.

[gw67]

j_w,

It is good to have you back. I expect both Bowie and Tucker to improve this year. Even though they are juniors, I expect Milbourne to improve (he barely played as a freshman) as well as Hayes (he never fully recovered from his mid-season ankle injury and it affected all aspects of his game). The key, as I mentioned in earlier posts, is the needed improvement of the inside players. I agree that Neal will probably play 10-15 minutes/game. He doesn't make a bunch of mistakes and is a good shooter/passer but he doesn't have the size or quickness to defend against bigger/quicker players.

gw67

[gw67]

pfr - I realize that the first day of practice for college teams is in another three weeks but I haven’t put away my clubs nor gotten this year’s Blue Ribbon college basketball issue so I haven’t given very much thought to the upcoming season. Nevertheless, I looked at the Duke and Maryland schedules a few weeks back when they came out and it appeared to me that while neither school had a robust OOC schedule the schedules were OK. The Terps might be the weakest team in the Old Spice tourney (Michigan State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Siena and Wichita State) and while Youngstown State, Delaware State, Bryant, Vermont and Elon would appear to be pushovers at home, GWU, Charlotte and Michigan are competitive teams and Bucknell, American and Morgan State are decent mid-majors who may make the NCAAT. I figured a 10-4 or 9-5 OOC record.

I recall that Lunardi, who keeps up with the teams from year to year, stated that Maryland was among the last teams out of his initial bracket. This would indicate that he expects them to win 18-20 games and I just don’t see it.

gw67

[whereinthehellami]

You know how they say some teams look strong on paper? Not the case with Maryland. I can't remember the last time they looked this bad on paper.

[just_wondering]

pfr - I realize that the first day of practice for college teams is in another three weeks but I haven’t put away my clubs nor gotten this year’s Blue Ribbon college basketball issue so I haven’t given very much thought to the upcoming season. Nevertheless, I looked at the Duke and Maryland schedules a few weeks back when they came out and it appeared to me that while neither school had a robust OOC schedule the schedules were OK. The Terps might be the weakest team in the Old Spice tourney (Michigan State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Siena and Wichita State) and while Youngstown State, Delaware State, Bryant, Vermont and Elon would appear to be pushovers at home, GWU, Charlotte and Michigan are competitive teams and Bucknell, American and Morgan State are decent mid-majors who may make the NCAAT. I figured a 10-4 or 9-5 OOC record.

I recall that Lunardi, who keeps up with the teams from year to year, stated that Maryland was among the last teams out of his initial bracket. This would indicate that he expects them to win 18-20 games and I just don’t see it.

gw67

What I hear a lot is that Williams used to get the most out of his talent but lately .... Williams mantra in the off season has been that they have been a physically weak team that tires too easily the last few years. They hired a new conditioning coach. Dave Neal is able to dunk put backs which he couldn't do before. Hayes has gained 10 pounds of muscle. The us against the world attitude is back. The band wagon has plenty of space [didn't sell out season tickets this year] This is shaping up to be one of those late 90's Terp teams. The x factor -- Dino Gregory. Undersized and the player that would benefit the most from the new conditioning regimen.