2009 NBA Draft -- Chad Ford Looks Ahead

[SilkyJ]

Guess its never too early to look ahead. A few comments about the 2009 draft class in general (looking very weak) and about some specific prospects as well.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftWatch-080922&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

[BD80]

Ford lists Rubio as a top 5 pick. Rubio is 17 (as of the Olympics), is he eligible to be drafted in the 2009 draft?

[hc5duke]

Ford lists Rubio as a top 5 pick. Rubio is 17 (as of the Olympics), is he eligible to be drafted in the 2009 draft?

From wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft): All players must be at least 19 years of age during the calendar year of the draft.

Ricky Rubio will turn 19 on 2009-10-21 (also from Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Rubio)), so yes.

[dukeballer2294]

Does any1 know brandon jennings stock right now?

[COYS]

Does any1 know brandon jennings stock right now?

He's regarded by all scouts as a top 10 talent. Ford has him listed at number 5 right now. I think what everyone will be watching this year is to see how he handles Europe. He could tear it up in Italy either as a starter or an impact sub and propel himself to number 1. He could spend a lot of time on the bench and therefore give no real indication whether or not his talent will translate to results on the court, which could cause him to slip. I doubt he slips out of the teens though, unless Europe is a total disaster. Even if he doesn't play much, some team is still going to figure his potential alone is worth the draft pick. But then again, everything could change depending on how Europe shapes up. I don't think his stock will rise or fall much until the Euro season gets underway.

[JasonEvans]

From what I saw watching the Olympics, Rubio is worth a top 5 pick. The kid has amazing court vision and ballhandling. His D and his shot certainly need work but he feels a bit like a young version of Jason Kidd at this point.

--Jason "and this is gonna be a fairly weak draft" Evans

[NYC Duke Fan]

From what I saw watching the Olympics, Rubio is worth a top 5 pick. The kid has amazing court vision and ballhandling. His D and his shot certainly need work but he feels a bit like a young version of Jason Kidd at this point.

--Jason "and this is gonna be a fairly weak draft" Evans

Totally agree...He could be special...Also reminds me of Steve Nash

[concrete]

Totally agree...He could be special...Also reminds me of Steve Nash

he reminds me of Sebastian Telfair. Another overrated young man who has some streetball saavy. The streetball moves are totally different than what Spain is use to so he really shines there. Here he's a dime a dozen, he has good court vision but against the US he basically did nothing. He had a great game against China for 1 half but who does China have playing at guard. What is his competition in the Spanish Leagues? I think if Brandon Jennings goes over to Europe and puts on a show it will put these rumblings to rest because I think our top highschool talent could easily be budding stars in the Euro-Leagues.

People are overrating him. They are overrating the Olympic game compared to the NBA games.

Puerto Rico beat USA 2 years ago at the World Games led by a guy who barely gets PT in the NBA.

The Mills guy was barely a college star before the Olympics

All of Spains guards that came over to the NBA flopped for the most part.

[COYS]

he reminds me of Sebastian Telfair. Another overrated young man who has some streetball saavy. The streetball moves are totally different than what Spain is use to so he really shines there. Here he's a dime a dozen, he has good court vision but against the US he basically did nothing. He had a great game against China for 1 half but who does China have playing at guard. What is his competition in the Spanish Leagues? I think if Brandon Jennings goes over to Europe and puts on a show it will put these rumblings to rest because I think our top highschool talent could easily be budding stars in the Euro-Leagues.

People are overrating him. They are overrating the Olympic game compared to the NBA games.

Puerto Rico beat USA 2 years ago at the World Games led by a guy who barely gets PT in the NBA.

The Mills guy was barely a college star before the Olympics

All of Spains guards that came over to the NBA flopped for the most part.

Obviously none of Spain's guards have become Kobe Bryant like super stars, however, Calderon had an exceptional season this past year. In fact, if you're a fan of John Hollinger's stats over at ESPN, you could argue he was one of the best pure point guards in the league last year. Hollinger lists him as the fifth best point guard (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=pg&seasonType=2&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fsort%3dper%26qual%3dtr ue%26pos%3dpg%26seasonType%3d2) (although you have to be an insider to see all the stats, so you may just have to trust me.) That Calderon has had this success already means that Rubio won't even be the first Spanish PG to find success in the NBA if he proves to be successful. Navarro and others haven't become stars in the league, but they've been able to at least make solid contributions to their team. The Spanish guards are certainly not scrubs.

On the other hand, I fall somewhere in between on Rubio. The Pistol Pete comparisons are way out of line, in my opinion. Rubio isn't even a shadow of the scorer that Pete was. Rubio's defense is also too weak for the Kidd comparisons. Of course, he's only seventeen so he could learn to become a tough defender. However, I do question his lateral quickness on the defensive end. In that regard, he definitely reminds me most of a young Steve Nash who can't shoot. I'm not sure he'll ever be a strong defender (Nash is still a sieve on defense), but he's got the creativity and court vision to drive an offense like Nash has been able to do. If he learns to shoot, he could be quite a force. In a weak draft, he just might be worth a top 3 pick if only to hope you strike gold (kinda like Andrea Bargnani going number one a few years ago). However, I don't think that Rubio will ever reach the level of a Chris Paul or even a Deron Williams. He could end up being just below those guys, though.

[brevity]

However, I don't think that Rubio will ever reach the level of a Chris Paul or even a Deron Williams. He could end up being just below those guys, though.

Picking any point guard with a top 5 draft pick carries considerable risk, because you're usually not going to get as much of an instant return as you would with a (healthy) shooting guard, forward, or center. Chris Paul and Deron Williams are exceptional anomalies, in my opinion. We'll see about Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, but I don't think they'll measure up to their predecessors' early success.

As for Rubio, it's hard to safely predict how his skills will translate to the NBA, but if he can be a durable starting point guard for his team, he's probably worth a top 5 draft pick.

[gotham devil]

The Mills guy was barely a college star before the Olympics.

He was all-WCC, WCC Newcomer of the Year, Mid-Major all-American, and dropped 37 points on Oregon.