Carolina early entry vigil

[OldSchool]

I say Wright goes. Given his potential draft status and the risk of injury, it would be extremely hard not to go into the draft.

I can see Lawson going if he gets advice that he will go in the first round. I bet he has his sights set on bigger things than UNC.

The big question mark will be Hansbrough. He's as ready as he ever will be for the League. And without Wright, next year's team will not be as good as this year's team, so the chances of getting a championship are slimmer. Maybe a good time for him to go.

Ellington stays, I predict.

[Troublemaker]

I would hope Ellington stays. I hope he stays four years the way he has missed clutch shots throughout the season.

Wright is supposed to be gone, being top 5 and all. I think Lawson will join him. He's definitely a first round draft pick, perhaps even lottery. Probably only TJ Ford can match his speed in the NBA.

Tyler seems to be a 4-yr player to me. He's psychotic and he's not going to leave until he gets a Final Four.

[TheDuke11]

i'm saying that wes miller and reyshawn terry go.
I also think wright and lawson are gone.
players like thompson and stepheson will not look so good next year without those guys taking the pressure off of them imo.
there were some ellington transfer rumors floating out there a few weeks ago, but they are probably just like the LT and Hendo rumors...fake.
I'm not exactly sold on hansb coming back. he probably will, but we'll see.

[Atlanta Duke]

Wright is projected top 5 and I had read Lawson got out of the habit of going to class, which is usually not a good sign.

I think Ty stays because this draft class is loaded and unlike Josh he seems to be enjoying the college ball experience.

[Bob Green]

Well my track record in regards to predictions is pretty poor but here goes: Wright and Lawson go early but Hansbrough & Ellington return. Of course, Miller and Terry are gone to graduation.

Carolina can make up for Wright with Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson but they will be hurting at point guard. QT & BF are liabilities with the ball in their hands. With the exception of the point guard position, Carolina will still be a good team. I wonder if Ellington will see time at the point next year.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[OldSchool]

If Wright and Hansbrough both come back it has be frustrating for guys like Thompson and Stepheson. Neither of those guys is going to get much more PT than they got this year, and both were fairly well-regarded out of high school. They probably assumed there would be guys declaring early for the draft to free up playing time for them.

[jipops]

I'm thinking reyshawn will go given he's a senior and all, call it a hunch.

Wright's the 4th draft pick at worst so hard to see him not leaving. Lawson's already been skipping out on class so his mind may have been made up about a month ago.

I'd be shocked if Hansbrough left though I think he's a better prospect than McRoberts right now (my opinion). Contrary to how others feel I really do like the kind of player Tyler is.

No matter what, the heels will still put the most talented team in the ACC on the floor(they have been ever since Roy arrived - even in '06 in my opinion). That is just how ridiculously loaded they are. If Lawson and Hans are still around they're the obvious front runners for national champs. Then I'm sure Roy will bring in a loaded class full of future NBA prospects the next year.

Don't get too excited, the cupboard will never be bare in ch. Even Matt Doherty could recruit there.

[CDu]

I'm thinking reyshawn will go given he's a senior and all, call it a hunch.

Wright's the 4th draft pick at worst so hard to see him not leaving. Lawson's already been skipping out on class so his mind may have been made up about a month ago.

I'd be shocked if Hansbrough left though I think he's a better prospect than McRoberts right now (my opinion). Contrary to how others feel I really do like the kind of player Tyler is.

No matter what, the heels will still put the most talented team in the ACC on the floor(they have been ever since Roy arrived - even in '06 in my opinion). That is just how ridiculously loaded they are. If Lawson and Hans are still around they're the obvious front runners for national champs. Then I'm sure Roy will bring in a loaded class full of future NBA prospects the next year.

Don't get too excited, the cupboard will never be bare in ch. Even Matt Doherty could recruit there.

If both Wright and Lawson are gone, then it is very debatable that the Tarheels have the most talented team next year. We'd then have better players at 3 of the five starting spots (Paulus over Thomas/Frasor, Nelson over Ginyard/Green, and Singler over Thompson) with Scheyer and Ellington being in a similar category in my book. And our bench would be better than their bench. If we got Patterson, I'd say we'd be hands-down the more talented team.

If Lawson stays, then you are right: they'll still be the most talented team in the conference.

[_Gary]

No matter what, the heels will still put the most talented team in the ACC on the floor(they have been ever since Roy arrived - even in '06 in my opinion).

I'm probably just drinking too much Kool-Aid, but I don't know about that statement if UNC loses Wright and Lawson and we pick up Patterson. I think we will be nose to nose with them in the talent department if those things happen.

Gary

[feldspar]

Wright's gone. :)

Lawson's gone. :)

Tyler's coming back. :(

[cbarry]

I agree with everyone that Wright and Lawson are gone, but I also think Hansbrough is gone as well. Just a gut feeling.

[mpj96]

In the post-game interview, Wright refused to say that he'd be back for next year. Hansbrough didn't respond at all. If Hansbrough doesn't leave he's nuts. What is he 22 or 23 years old now?

[freedevil]

Hansbrough's back.

Lawson may be back, but only because this draft is so deep. But unlike other players, he will most assuredly have a 2nd and 3rd contract because he is just plain awesome. So he doesn't need to go all that high right now (granted it would be nice for him), but he knows he will have a good career in the league and that the money will come as soon as he goes.

[lavell12]

Wright should be the only player to go but Lawson will go even though he can't score and is way undersized. Handsborough will stay because he is a much better college player then NBA prospect because he lacks the height to play center but lacks the foot speed and atheletism to play power forward and won't be able to bully players in the NBA. Not a roll player at all and that would be what he is asked. Josh is a much better prospect because he is 6'11 even tough he is a powerfoward and probably the most atheletic big man in the draft.

UNC
PG Frasor
SG Ellington
SF Green and Ginaryd
PF Thompson
C Handsborough

Duke
PG Paulus
SG Scheyer
SF Nelson
PF/SF Singler
C Zoebeck or Patterson

With Patterson Duke is much better then Carolina plus with the loss of Lawson and the lack of depth Carolina will have to resort to playing a half court offense and Duke's new found depth will run and gun the Heels off of the court.

[dbowen]

If I were you Lavell12, I would check out the thread on misspelling names instead of trying to figure out who the starting five of Duke and Unc are going to be next year. Sorry, but I just can't stand people spelling the names wrong of our own team members.

[Exiled_Devil]

I don't think the depth in the draft is relevant to Lawson - it is deep for big men, not really for PG's. I guess AC law is there, but otherwise it looks like there are basically seniors who are PG's (and we all know that seniors have peaked if they are still in college and playing :p )

As for Josh being the most athletic big man in the draft, I think you are looking with a biased eye - Noah, Wright, and especially Durant (at 6-10) are all more athletic, with better numbers. Josh will go in the first round, but he will sweat it out to a late-first round, IMO.

I see Lawson and Wright going, and hope Tyler follows.

Exiled

[FireOgilvie]

He said in the press conference that he's going to stay another year... we'll see.

[Brian12215]

I'm not saying Lawson is going to go pro, but I do not agree that the draft this year is very deep at his position. Next year may be different. Guys like Mayo, Gordon, and Rose come to mind. This might be the better year for Lawson to go I think.

[Karl Beem]

Hans is back. otoh, arthritis kicks in next year.

[ItalianDevil]

everybody except Wright is staying, IMHO

[Delaware]

All three will leave, I believe. Noone knows, but I have heard from some UNC folks that this is likely. All three would definitely have gone had they won the whole thing.

[Matches]

Wright's definitely gone. Despite his post-game comments yesterday, I think there's a good chance Lawson departs as well. Hansbrough would be a long shot - most likely he will return.

Ellington is definitely not coming out.

[RelativeWays]

I don't see Hansbrough leaving, pro scouts aren't too high on his game and he is going to need to develope a consistant jumper to be appealing to pro teams. The way he plays the post now may not be as successful in the NBA with bigger true centers guarding him. Wright and Lawson are gone. Frasor and Thomas are about as capable as Paulus in the guard position but Paulus is a much better scorer. I think they have a red shirt freshman from Greensboro Ithat I think plays guard. He'll get PT next year. I think Duke and UNC will be pretty evenly matched. Both will be pretty experienced teams, Duke will have the edge in new talent, even without Patterson.

[Troublemaker]

Lawson said: ""I mean... I've got no decision to make, I'll probably be back next year...most likely....100%"

Lawson's comments scare the crap out of me. He's the guy we really need to leave. The engine. Did you see how many easy shots he created for his teammates yesterday with his speed?

I do think that these types of comments/promises following a heartbreaking defeat should be regarded lightly. In a week or so, Lawson will be over the loss. He'll examine his options and get word that he's likely middle of the first round and guaranteed first rounder overall. He has to be. There are probably three guys on this planet who move as fast as him with the basketball. School sucks. Having no money sucks. Go pro, young Tywon. You know it's the right thing to do.

[Troublemaker]

If Wright and Lawson go, then Tyler can stay. We owe him a couple of thrashings.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Wright is almost certainly gone. For Lawson, I'd say it's 60/40 that he's staying. I'm almost positive that Hansbrough and Ellington are staying.

Our future success depends on Lawson maybe more than anyone else. While Wright's leaving will hurt us, I think Thompson can step in and play pretty well along side Hansbrough. Since we have no recruits coming in, Lawson leaving would mean that Frasor and QT will be the main PGs. Frasor is decent but he has no where near the skills of Lawson.

[wilson]

mean absolutely nothing. A few years ago (to be fair, after winning a title), Carmelo made a comment to the effect of "I thought you were supposed to go to college for four years."
Not even two weeks ago, McBob expressed his commitment to his teammates and said "we have to get better."
I suppose that was so "we" could pack our bags a week later.
I'll just wait for things to shake out. In the meantime, I'll hope for the best while expecting the worst.

[throatybeard]

Lawson said: ""I mean... I've got no decision to make, I'll probably be back next year...most likely....100%"

There are probably three guys on this planet who move as fast as him with the basketball.

And I think Ellington might be one of the three.

[JasonEvans]

Wright is gone for sure, in my opinion. He played pretty darn well late in the season and his draft stock is such (top 5) that coming back would not seem to make sense.

Lawson will stay, I think. He showed a ton of speed but struggled a bit in the NCAA tourney with his shot/scoring. I think he would be a mid-late first rounder if he came out. His stock could get a lot higher by waiting a year and having another strong season. The question is, does Lawson want to stay or want to go? We have all heard the reports about him not being very into his class work.

Hanbrough's stock has to be sky high at this point. He was a stud in the NCAA tourney. Don't forget that he did a lot of damage against Georgetown when matched against guys like Green and Hibbert, who the NBA sees as legit first-round prospects. To me, the notion that Hansy will not score at the next level seems false. It is not like hard work is suddenly not something that matters. Hansbrough will be a NBA player (I see him as a solid 6-8th man on a good team or a starting PF on a team with some issues at that position). He is never going to be a high lottery pick but if he comes out now he goes in the top 20 picks, I think. I don't think his stock can get higher. He just has to decide if he wants to leave now or hang around and try to win a national title (which may be muuuuch harder with Wright gone and will be almost impossible if Lawson is gone too).

-Jason

[kramerbr]

Lawson will stay. His shot is worse then Ed Cota's.

[Patrick Yates]

Carolina will be losing a significant amount of talent this offseason, by hook or by crook. Much of what happens will be determined by events at the FF this weekend. UNC flaming out early (though hilarious) does not help Duke next year in that it will curtail the exodus to the pros.

I think Wright is gone. Nothing to come back for other than endorsements. Oden and Durant will get the lion's share of those this year, with the Gators getting in on the action should they repeat. I still think Wright is out the door. If Wright does not leave, Tyler probably sticks around (unless he gets tired of sharing the ball and the acclaim). And Thompson and Setephenson are gone via transfer. It is one thing to sit for 1 year while you win a NC (in a year where it should be [and was] impossible to be recruited over), it is another to sit for a second year with a top recruiting class in the offing. If Wright and Hans stick around, one or both their backups transfer, leaving UNC weakened down low.

Conversly, UNC is similarly weakened if Hans and Wright bolt, leaving the backups as the only viable options down low.

I do not know how this will play out. A FF or NC run would have almost surely pushed TH out the door (Wright is gone, 99% sure). If TH comes back, one of the backups might transfer, might not.

Something that has got to be plagueing TH is the belief that Stephenson and Thompson will ultimately surpass him in ability. They may never take his starting job, but as they progress they will take his shots. They are too good to be his sidekicks for three more years. He lost enough shots to Wright this year, TH may not want to stick arround for the Stephenson/Thompson ascendancy.

Worst case (for us) TH and Stephenson and Thompson stick arround (UNC keeping all four is a crack induced fantasy, see above reasoning).

UNC will see attrition in the backcourt/wing this year. I think Lawson will go pro. He will declare and not hire an agent. Once teams get a look at him in private workouts his stock will sky rocket. The only negatives (regardless of our opinions regarding his personality, we MAY be biased in that regard) are things he cannot really improve, namely his height. According to Roy, whom I tend to believe, TL is a better shot than Felton, it is just that TL doesn't shoot that often. In workouts, TL's driving and finishing ability (even without dunks) will wow the scouts. He could easily be the first PG taken (Law is more of a combo who will not wow in private workouts). I think TL is the most pro ready (with a decent upside) in the draft. Only KS has comparable talent in the ready now/potential catagory.

Two caveats to this: Crittendon and Conley. Crittendon, while not as ready as TL now, has a huge upside. If TL maxes out his ability, he can be a good to very good pro guard, playing in numerous all-star games. But he will never be a true superstar due to his only failing, his height. Crittendon can be a franchise type player who regularly contends for MVP. Will he? I do not know, but if he works almost as hard as TL, Crittendon will be a much better pro, simply because he has better physical gifts. TL's best phyical gift, his speed, will be negated by the fact that his teammates can not match him, so the speed is somewhat negated. Crittendon is an upside pick, this year he would not help a pro team, and another year at GT will turn Crittendon into a top 5 pick, so I bet he comes back. TL would definitely leave this year to aviod being behind Crittendon next year. But might stay to avoid him this year should Crittendo come out.

Conley could also affect TL. If OSU wins the NC behind an All-FF or FF-MVP performance by Conley, he might go. It is possible that Conely would go ahead of TL in such a scenario, if not already. Conley probably doesn't need the money, but he would be foolish not to capitalize on strong buzz following a good weekend next week. If Conley, Crittendon, and KS's stable of PG's stays in school, TL will be out the door, becaus they can all surpass or equal him in the draft next year, whereas there would be no comp this year.

TL is the key to UNC next year. With him, regardless of Wright and Hans, UNC will be the best team early in conference, with Duke and GT hot on their Heels, if you will, with Duke and GT easily capable of overtaking them late in the year. If TL goes (and I think he does, seems to be some personality conflict there), UNC is left with a foot-slow PG in Frasor, with a weak backup (who might transfer). Regardless of backup's (can't recall his name due to his total lack of relvance to the game of basketball) decision, I forsee many minutes at PG for Ellington, a-la JS for us. This might not appeal to him, or it may. Whatever, without TL UNC is severly weakened at the PG next year. Frasor is one of the least athletic PG's in conference, and his play this year cannot do wonders for his confidence going into next year.

Also, if TL stays, BF is gone, cause he will be buried next year, and probably after that when-if Larry Drew show up. So UNC will lose a point this year. Losing TL helps us more, but losing BF would impair their depth, and would prevent Ol'Roy from using the fear of imminent replacement to bludgeon TL into doing what Roy wants. Also, TL would be forced to slow down some, because he would be playing many more minutes next year, probably upwards of 30.

I think that UNC will see some attrition on the wing next year. Green and Ginyard are the same player, and Ellington is a smaller, better shooting, poorer defending version of the two. A strong FF would have pushed Ellington out the door, but that didn't happen. Unless he is unhappy, I think he doesn't transfer. That leaves Ginyard and Green. I know that more minutes are available with Terry's graduation, but Graves will eat up some of those minutes. With Delvin Roe in offing in 2008-2009, One or the other (but not both) may decide that there is greener grass to be found somewhere else.

Worst Case (for us) is that Carolina only loses Wright (NBA) and Frasor (transfer), plus one of the wings (probably). They would be very good next year, but they would have a low ceiling for improvement. They would be almost as good from Day 1 as they would be at the end of the year. The loss of depth would impair their ability to run over the course of the year, and without Wrigh they would lack a freak athlete to inspire fear in the hearts of the opposition. All in all, nowhere near the juggernaught they should have been this year (nice coaching Roy, at least in '99 we got to the NC and almost won).

Best Case (for us, and entirely possible) is that Wright, Lawson and TH go pro. TH may decide that life without TL and Wright will be a steady stream of 3-man nets every time he touches the ball, not unlike Elton would have faced had he returned for his Jr year. This might not appeal to him, so he might go. UNC would be thin up front, and not particularly daunting at the PG slot. They would be strong on the wing, but I can see chemistry problems besetting the trio as each one tries to be the man for UNC to fill the void. This could be another miss the NCAAs type year.

I believe that the last case is more likely than the first, but anything in between can and will occur.

Only one thing is sure. UNC will suffer significant losses this summer, either by early entry or Transfer. It is one thing to keep this many kids together for 1 year to make an NC run, but I do not think Roy can keep them all toghether for multiple years because of ego, desire for PT, etc. UNC will be worse next year, barring a miracle. Maybe still as good as us, but probably worse, and maybe significantly worse.

This does not have any bearing on our NC title hopes next year, merely UNC's ability relative to us next year.

My opinion

Patrick Yates

[watzone]

Wright 95-5
Lawson 80-20
Hansbrough 45-55

[Jumbo]

I heard something different, though this was obviously before yesterday:

Wright: 100%
Hansbrough: Pretty darn close to 100%
Lawson: 50/50
Ellington: Returning

[gw67]

Patrick - I don't always agree but I enjoy reading your posts. The different scenarios that you paint are interesting and possible although Wright and Lawson leaving and Hansbrough staying with no transfers seems the most likely scenario on the surface, IMO.

I also think that a team of Frasor, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson and Hansbrough with Green, Stephenson, Thomas and Graves on the bench would be very competitive and perhaps a little stronger than the Devils on paper.

gw67

[DankeShane]

I heard something different, though this was obviously before yesterday:

Wright: 100%
Hansbrough: Pretty darn close to 100%
Lawson: 50/50
Ellington: Returning

100% = 100% gone?

[Jumbo]

100% = 100% gone?

Yes. I'd heard that Wright was out and Hansbrough had all but decided to leave too. This was right before the start of the Tourney.

[tux]

I agree, UNC will still be quite good next year regardless. Duke can close the gap IMO, but that assumes that pretty much everyone stays (excepting McRoberts, of course) and that at least Wright leaves.

I hate this segment of the year b/w tourney and draft deadline.

[Patrick Yates]

Patrick - I don't always agree but I enjoy reading your posts. The different scenarios that you paint are interesting and possible although Wright and Lawson leaving and Hansbrough staying with no transfers seems the most likely scenario on the surface, IMO.

I also think that a team of Frasor, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson and Hansbrough with Green, Stephenson, Thomas and Graves on the bench would be very competitive and perhaps a little stronger than the Devils on paper.

gw67


Thanks GW, I feel the same about you. The UNC Team you listed looks OK on paper. If you had TL instead of BF, they would be good. I feel that BF is not due for a good year next year. TL was the catalyst/\.

1. He is a defensive liability on par with Paulus, but at least Paulus can shoot and run the team with some degree of ability. BF is not a great shot, nor is he great at running the team. A dedicated Defender could shut BF down and your version of UNC's team's offense would grind to a halt, much worse than Duke's this year, becuase those players, especially those posts, are much more dependant on getting good set ups from the PG to get going. Honestly, we could sic Nelson or Smith on BF, and totally shut him down. GP could at least slow Ellington down, especially without a point to set Wayne up. Also, BF will suffer from comparisons to TL. While on the same team, BF is appreciated for hustle, and giving TL a blow. Without TL, the first time BF looks bad in a game (which will happen early, and against a lessor team) BF will hear about it from the media, fans, opposition, etc. Imagine what Paulus went through, only there was no one to compare Paulus to other than players who no longer had any eligibility left when they departed Duke (Livingston technically, but he would never have stayed four years). BF could hear a lot of "what if" regarding TL, and that will get old fast. With TL gone, they are essentially the same team as last year, a good, not great team that Duke can play with.

2. They are very shallow next year. Can't run, and Roy is only comfortable when he can turn teams loose, not BF's forte. I think their half court with BF and without BW and TH is dog foogly next year. A dedicated Defense could rattle them early, they quit, and then get destroyed by an unselfish team, like we will be next year. Any injury to a post or at the PG slot would decimate them. Without BW, our posts, even without PP match up ok. BZ can lean on them, and while LT or KS would give up a lot of weight, neither Thompson nor Stephenson nor TH will relish chasing either of our PFs arround all night. That is at least a wash.

3. Chemistry. Given your UNC team a (my team, whatever) the 3 clear cut second best players are Ellington, Ginyard, and Green, in no particular order. I see those guys not getting along as they fight for minutes and shots. Any of the three could be a superstar next year while one of the three plays a minor role, and going into the summer I have no idea who fills which roll. Also, looking at Thompson and Stephenson, they are very similiar. They might have problems as they jockey for position on the team. Chemistry problems on overwhelmingly talented teams result in decent years, like the one they had this year. With that crop of talent, any chemistry problems will be a death knell for the team.

That is why I like Duke in relation to the listed team. Virtually all of this year's difference makers are gone for UNC. Much like Duke this year, a bunch of Robin's with no Batman to play off.

Patrick Yates

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

Is it possible that TH will feel he does not get enough protection in college, ie Nosegate, and that in the Pros he will get more protection? Of course it would be silly to think this way, he is no Patrick Ewing Sr. However, this is a fans board so it is ok to speculate.

GO DUKE!

[Carter431]

Pure speculation but I see Wright and Lawson leaving and TH staying. IMO, TH is a much better college player than he will ever be in the NBA.

[keithg]

It's interesting how Lawson is handling this situation. Rumors have been abundant that he may leave yet he has stated three or four times that he is coming back...including in today's Fayetteville Paper:

http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=258192

As a fan, I would rather have a situation like Josh's where he just goes, than to have a player tell me how much he loves his teammates, school, the coach, etc...and then make a beeline for the back door at the end of the semester.

I still say he leaves though along with Wright. I think Hansborough stays and Carolina and Duke are both in the 10-15 range preseason.

[ikiru36]

Wright is gone for sure, in my opinion. He played pretty darn well late in the season and his draft stock is such (top 5) that coming back would not seem to make sense.

Lawson will stay, I think. He showed a ton of speed but struggled a bit in the NCAA tourney with his shot/scoring. I think he would be a mid-late first rounder if he came out. His stock could get a lot higher by waiting a year and having another strong season. The question is, does Lawson want to stay or want to go? We have all heard the reports about him not being very into his class work.

Hanbrough's stock has to be sky high at this point. He was a stud in the NCAA tourney. Don't forget that he did a lot of damage against Georgetown when matched against guys like Green and Hibbert, who the NBA sees as legit first-round prospects. To me, the notion that Hansy will not score at the next level seems false. It is not like hard work is suddenly not something that matters. Hansbrough will be a NBA player (I see him as a solid 6-8th man on a good team or a starting PF on a team with some issues at that position). He is never going to be a high lottery pick but if he comes out now he goes in the top 20 picks, I think. I don't think his stock can get higher. He just has to decide if he wants to leave now or hang around and try to win a national title (which may be muuuuch harder with Wright gone and will be almost impossible if Lawson is gone too).

-Jason

From a pure point of maximizing his draft stock, Lawson should leave this year or he may need to wait two years to go. He is currently the consensus #1 or 2 PG in the draft this year(Draft Express has him #13 overall right now), whereas, next year's draft could be loaded. The top 3 players in this year's HS senior class all play some PG and are at least 6'2". Derrick Rose is absolutely amazing as a PG prospect (I don't state this lightly but in the few games I saw he reminded me of J.Will as the complete package, including strength and maturity-probably a superior passer too) and Mayo and Gordon are gifted PG/SGs.

If he were to stay, as well as Hansborough, I agree that UNC will be a contender again, but less clearly dominant than they potentially were this year.

And if Lawson leaves, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for Hansbrough to stay (from an NBA perspective, that is) because (as good as he genuinely is) he benefited dramatically from Wright's presence this year (and Lawson's, getting him the ball in great locations). I know that he's a sophomore and seems like a 4 year guy, but he's also 22 years old later this year.

I think, and have thought for awhile, that all 3 are probably gone, but Lawson and Hansbrough should probably link their decisions together, at least from a practical standpoint.

If all 3 should leave (and don't forget Terry and Miller) Carolina will be a borderline Top-25 team at best, though it'll be a safer year (than we had this year) to be down in the ACC since so many other teams lose key seniors as well. I personally believe that Duke, even without Patterson, will be as deep as UNC was this year and while I wouldn't predict National Championship (until 2009), they'll be top 10 caliber by the middle of the year. If Thomas and/or Zoubek were to develop lean bulk/strength (which is certainly within the realm of possibility), Duke could be a serious sleeper next year.

Even if Lawson and Hansbrough stay, I see the two teams as competing fairly evenly for the ACC title.

In any event, I'm looking forward to next year as we'll have so many players who have the potential to develop in exciting ways. And if Patterson were to come, I think we definitely have a place for him to be successful right away, develop, and possibly win some championships!

Sorry to be so optimistic (and I could certainly be wrong, but I really don't think I'm being crazy), but UNC blowing a lead to miss the Final Four works a certain magic, if you know what I mean. :0)

Alison, Lindsey, thank you and no regrets!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I heard something different, though this was obviously before yesterday:

Wright: 100%
Hansbrough: Pretty darn close to 100%
Lawson: 50/50
Ellington: Returning


Wow, where did you hear that? Everything I've heard and read (up to and during the tournament) seemed to indicate that Hansbrough was staying. His family is well off (and so they don't need the money) and Hansbrough loves being in school. He has said repeatedly that he plans to stay for 4 years. While that doesn't necessarily mean much, it's always seemed to me to be an honest answer (though maybe I'm just looking at it through light-blue tinted glasses).

[Jumbo]

Wow, where did you hear that? Everything I've heard and read (up to and during the tournament) seemed to indicate that Hansbrough was staying. His family is well off (and so they don't need the money) and Hansbrough loves being in school. He has said repeatedly that he plans to stay for 4 years. While that doesn't necessarily mean much, it's always seemed to me to be an honest answer (though maybe I'm just looking at it through light-blue tinted glasses).

I heard it from an NBA source. He very well might be wrong. But he's usually correct. I have no idea if yesterday's loss -- and Hansbrough's competitiveness -- will change things. But his draft stock never has been, and never will be, higher.

[dukeimac]

Hansbourgh stock was higher last year than this year. Actually, IMO, Wright looked better and Hans put up good numbers because of Wright. If a team has to worry about just Hansbourgh his play could drop next year as with his stock. If he is in the top 15 he should go now. But with this draft loaded with big guys; i.e. Oden, Durant, Wright, etc. he might want to re-think that (as Josh should have). If Hibbert goes Hansbourgh better stay, he didn't look good against him.

Lawson has to consider being compared to the much hipped Mayo next year. The question might be guys like Conley Jr. at OSU. If he goes this year then Lawson might not look so good this year.

If Wright and Lawson go so should Hansbourgh. If Hansbourgh and Wright go so should Lawson.

Ellington is a question mark, if all three of those go he might want to consider it too.

But IMO it all comes down to who of the underclassman will go before some of these guys decide if they'll go. Actually I hope about the top 20 freshman go so the pros see what a stupid rule it is to make them wait.

[ikiru36]

If Hibbert goes Hansbourgh better stay, he didn't look good against him.


Granted, he (and the entire UNC team) struggled at the end of the game, but I'd personally love to not look good against someone to the tune of 26 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover and going to the free throw line 16 times (making 14 of them).

As for last year vs. this year, that's a tough call but he may be a slightly lower pick this year than he would have been last (due to the depth of big men). Nevertheless, he did demonstrate improvement in a number of NBA important skills (really improved his offensive arsenal including some range out beyond 10'). If he's a top 20 pick, which he really should be, this is the year he should go, for his own professional career (if that is particularly important to him).

[Atlanta Duke]

mean absolutely nothing. A few years ago (to be fair, after winning a title), Carmelo made a comment to the effect of "I thought you were supposed to go to college for four years."
Not even two weeks ago, McBob expressed his commitment to his teammates and said "we have to get better."
I suppose that was so "we" could pack our bags a week later.
I'll just wait for things to shake out. In the meantime, I'll hope for the best while expecting the worst.

Having futilely engaged over the years in efforts to deconstruct the early entry comments of Brand, Avery, Dunleavy and Deng (at which point I took the pledge to give up), I will let the Tar Heel fans worry about it this year.

[Bob Green]

Hansbourgh stock was higher last year than this year. Actually, IMO, Wright looked better and Hans put up good numbers because of Wright. If a team has to worry about just Hansbourgh his play could drop next year as with his stock.

Next year, teams will not have the luxury of just worrying about Hansbrough. Even with Wright in the NBA, Carolina will have two quality big men on the floor because Deon Thompson is impressive.

Of course this is assuming Hansbrough returns.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[RelativeWays]

I would be willing to bet an irrelevant body part that Hansbrough stays for next year. Pinky toe?

[Clipsfan]

I guess that it's nice to have this conversation about the other team, rather than our own. It was nice of Josh to get his announcement out of the way quickly so that we didn't have to speculate, and hopefully no one else is considering dipping their toes into the NBA waters.

As for UNC, I don't know why Wright would come back. He's not going to be a higher pick (and if Durant or Oden actually stay, like they're saying they might, he could be one of the top 2 picks). I know that Hansbrough has stated that he's a 4 year guy, but that doesn't always mean much when the money comes knocking. Even if his family is well off, I'm sure that a guaranteed $3-4 million looks good. He had an excellent tourney, so if he was talking about leaving before the tourney started, I'd have to guess that he is out the door. His stock isn't going to get much higher. As for Lawson, it's been mentioned multiple times, but he doesn't seem to be at UNC for the schoolwork. I'd guess that as long as he gets told that he's a decent mid-round pick, which some team will probably be willing to do, he's gone. He was one of the guys who would have moved into the top 10 with a good tourney, which he didn't have, but his speed/athleticism is unreal. I guess the biggest question (after size) is whether he can handle the pressure/has a winner's mentality. I say he takes the money too. I could just be wishing here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 leave.

[grossbus]

"He said in the press conference that he's going to stay another year... we'll see."

so did deng

"Duke
PG Paulus
SG Scheyer
SF Nelson
PF/SF Singler
C Zoebeck or Patterson"

nelson? no.

[chrisheery]

not sure i understand why everyone thinks he won't be a good pro. people get so hung up on this "nba prospect" thing. simply put, he is a better player than almost anyone else coming out. the same things were said about elton, boozer and sean may (to slow, not big enough, no jumper) when they came out. (elton to a lesser extent). those guys have all done well. may has been hampered by injuries, but when he has been healthy he has showed that the same talent he used in college works in the pros.

tyler will be good in the nba if given the chance to contribute. (tyler, you reading this? go pro! now!)

[phaedrus]

not sure i understand why everyone thinks he won't be a good pro. people get so hung up on this "nba prospect" thing. simply put, he is a better player than almost anyone else coming out. the same things were said about elton, boozer and sean may (to slow, not big enough, no jumper) when they came out. (elton to a lesser extent). those guys have all done well. may has been hampered by injuries, but when he has been healthy he has showed that the same talent he used in college works in the pros.

tyler will be good in the nba if given the chance to contribute. (tyler, you reading this? go pro! now!)

i don't know who said that about elton, but it couldn't have been anyone too important. he went #1. boozer's obviously surprised a few people but i don't think may has played above expectations. he's putting up solid 2nd-stringer numbers, but it's for a bad team and i don't exactly see him morphing into a 20-10 guy anytime soon. you're right though, i could see hansbrough going either way.

[chrisheery]

i don't know who said that about elton, but it couldn't have been anyone too important. he went #1. boozer's obviously surprised a few people but i don't think may has played above expectations. he's putting up solid 2nd-stringer numbers, but it's for a bad team and i don't exactly see him morphing into a 20-10 guy anytime soon. you're right though, i could see hansbrough going either way.



you might want to check those stats again. boozer was an all-star, averaging 20 and 12 for a team that started out better than any in the league. really, what/who are you talking about?

as for brand, many people said it. they said he was "more like 6-6 than 6-8." that he "played a lot bigger than his size." those aren't direct quotes, but that is the idea of what was said. in his case, he had so thoroughly dominated college hoops that it was thought to be irrelevant.

to me, hansbrough is similar. probably not as skilled or athletic, but still good.

[gus]

you might want to check those stats again. boozer was an all-star, averaging 20 and 12 for a team that started out better than any in the league. really, what/who are you talking about?


I think you missed a word: he's talking about May, not Boozer. Boozer has "obviously surprised a few people", but he doesn't think "may has played above expectations".

[chrisheery]

I think you missed a word: he's talking about May, not Boozer. Boozer has "obviously surprised a few people", but he doesn't think "may has played above expectations".

its still early. sorry.

as for may, though, i think the jury is still out. he has flashes of brilliance. i think we owe him at least another year to see where he will end up. maybe not a injury plagued year.

[throatybeard]

The pinky and its metatarsal are pretty important for balance. Ask Elton Brand.

[devildownunder]

I think th is gone. As has been mentioned, his stock isn't going to get much higher, so the time is right from that standpoint. The other basketball reason to stay is to try to win a championship but after they lose a bunch of talent this year, that is not going to seem too likely for 2008.

As for a degree, he can go the NBA now -- while his value is maxed out -- and still get the degree with summer school.

I really believe he's gone, unless he just absolutely loves college. And that's not just wishful thinking.

[Troublemaker]

As mentioned before, I think Tyler will stay because he's psychotically competitive and doesn't want to leave college without a Final Four under his belt, but if there's one thing working in our favor, it's the fact that he's already 21 yrs old and will be 22 in November. Maybe it's time for him to get a job or something...

[dukelion]

per draft express.com......

[RelativeWays]

This shouldn't be a surprise at all.

[throatybeard]

Damn.

Well, I prefer 3 years of Clever Hans to five of Ivory Latta.

[duke98]

Damn.

Well, I prefer 3 years of Clever Hans to five of Ivory Latta.

I couldn't agree with you more on this. My only reason for disliking Hansborough is that he's a good player. With Latta...not so much.

[CMS2478]

I just got on Inside Carolina to get their reactions and I don't think they even know yet. If they do they haven't posted anything.

[freedevil]

If Lawson and Wright go, I am not concerned by this news.

[dukeENG2003]

I'll agree with the sentiment that there are some UNC players who I just dislike because of the Jersey they wear (Jerry Stackhouse, Donald Williams, Antawn Jamison to name a few), but Tyler Hansborough is NOT in that category. He is, quite simply, a punk. I'm all for intensity, but at some point, you have to show some control as well (he didn't get the nickname "psycho" by accident). Also, his signature move is simply smashing himself into whoever is guarding him in an effort to draw a foul. His reaction to the G-Henderson incident didn't help my perception of him either (the fact that he was all but ready to try and throw down).

[JasonEvans]

If Lawson and Wright go, I am not concerned by this news.

Wright is considered a sure-thing. Lawson is the only real debate. Hansbrough was assumed to be back (though I think he could have left as his draft stock is about as high as it can be).

Thad Young is leaving Tech too. They would have been scary good if he came back. If Crittendon returns they are still fine, but if they lose him the Tech takes a real step backwards.

-Jason "there is usually one 'what?!?!?' declaration each year-- like Shav 2 years ago and Josh Powell before that -- who will it be this year?" Evans

[dukelion]

If Lawson and Wright go, I am not concerned by this news.

If Lawson goes then they'll struggle to stay in the top 25.

Withhout Lawson they lose a lot of their up tempo pace and become a halfcourt team without much depth.......and if they had one weakness this year it was their half court offesne.

Frasor, Ginyard, Green, and Q. Thomas are not gifted scorers. Ellington will be their only reliable outside threat.

And Lawson would be nuts not to declare......he's listed as a top 15 pick on just about every mock site.

Next year he would have to compete with other PG's such as Mayo, D. Rose, and Gordon. Add to that Crittendon, DJ Agustin, Mario Chalmers, Scottie Reynolds, Sherron Collins, and maybe Mike Connoly Jr.

Next year's draft will be loaded with PG's........lawson would be crazy to wait until next year.

[Wander]

If Lawson goes then they'll struggle to stay in the top 25.


A team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach is not going to "struggle to stay in the top 25. " However, Lawson is probably the difference between UNC being a serious title contender and a Top 25 team.

[dukelifer]

If Lawson goes then they'll struggle to stay in the top 25.

Withhout Lawson they lose a lot of their up tempo pace and become a halfcourt team without much depth.......and if they had one weakness this year it was their half court offesne.

Frasor, Ginyard, Green, and Q. Thomas are not gifted scorers. Ellington will be their only reliable outside threat.

And Lawson would be nuts not to declare......he's listed as a top 15 pick on just about every mock site.

Next year he would have to compete with other PG's such as Mayo, D. Rose, and Gordon. Add to that Crittendon, DJ Agustin, Mario Chalmers, Scottie Reynolds, Sherron Collins, and maybe Mike Connoly Jr.

Next year's draft will be loaded with PG's........lawson would be crazy to wait until next year.

Lawson should go and will likely do so if he will be drafted high enough. But no way are they not a top 25 team. They will be strong with or without Lawson. Just not as fast.

[greybeard]

Hansbrough, as a college player, is terrific. He has much, much more than one move; has great, as in a-one footwork and hands; tremendous imagination; and can deliver the ball from many different angles in many different ways from where the defender(s) are not. You guys are killing me.

If Wright and Lawson leave, UNC will be just as good as if they stayed. Yeap, your ears are seeing right. Just as good, but not as dominant against lesser teams. Without Lawson and Wright, I think that they might well have a better shot at the prize. Hansbrough will score the ball more, and have many more touches. The half court offense, which will run through him, will be much more effective. They will still run, but not play true Roy ball, which is entertaining but flawed; playing a more normal (for lack of a better term) style, I like their chances to make a real run at it all better. Or not. Just schmoozing.

[vmurray]

I'll agree with the sentiment that there are some UNC players who I just dislike because of the Jersey they wear (Jerry Stackhouse, Donald Williams, Antawn Jamison to name a few), but Tyler Hansborough is NOT in that category. He is, quite simply, a punk. I'm all for intensity, but at some point, you have to show some control as well (he didn't get the nickname "psycho" by accident). Also, his signature move is simply smashing himself into whoever is guarding him in an effort to draw a foul. His reaction to the G-Henderson incident didn't help my perception of him either (the fact that he was all but ready to try and throw down).

I can understand your distain of Latta among other players who had an on court persona that was less than appealing. It is a little harder to understand your strong statements about Hansbrough. Judging from the 2003 in your moniker you may not remember how adept Ferry was at drawing at fouls that had most non Duke fans screeching. It worked for him and it works for Hansbrough. I thought he handled the Henderson stuff as well as could be expected. Yeah he got up po'd. But don't think for a minute if he had wanted to go after Henderson that Dewey Burke could have stopped him. He was pretty gracious in the press conferences and the press wouldn't shut up about it. He gives a lot on the court every time he goes out and without a "rub it in your face" attitude. Nobody works harder than Tyler Hansbrough. I am very proud to call him a Tar Heel.
VMurray

[McGrupp]

I've tried to hate Hansbrough but I can't. He plays hard all the time and is a reliable free throw shooter. He doesn't showboat or thump his own chest. Did I mention he plays hard all the time? I can't hate guys like that.

I agree he gets away with a certain amount of rough play, but on the other hand he is constantly clobbered down low. I think it cuts both ways enough to be a wash.

[Patrick Yates]

If Lawson goes then they'll struggle to stay in the top 25.

Withhout Lawson they lose a lot of their up tempo pace and become a halfcourt team without much depth.......and if they had one weakness this year it was their half court offesne.

Frasor, Ginyard, Green, and Q. Thomas are not gifted scorers. Ellington will be their only reliable outside threat.

And Lawson would be nuts not to declare......he's listed as a top 15 pick on just about every mock site.

Next year he would have to compete with other PG's such as Mayo, D. Rose, and Gordon. Add to that Crittendon, DJ Agustin, Mario Chalmers, Scottie Reynolds, Sherron Collins, and maybe Mike Connoly Jr.

Next year's draft will be loaded with PG's........lawson would be crazy to wait until next year.


Tonight can change many things. Conley is supposed to stay, right now, but a strong NC win could change that. And he goes ahead of Lawson, no doubt about it. That could push Lawson down. Same with Crittendon, who would not surprise me if he left. Basically, I think Ty has already filled out his papers to declare, but he will wait until he sees who else is going. Because, if he doesn't go this year, he might have to wait until his Jr year to go out. But, he doesn't want to declare this year , only to be seen as dropping as higher rated players at the PG also declare, and then return to school with his tail between his legs, (cause the crazies, NCSU, and UMD will let him hear about that, no doubt), with the rest of the team and Roy secure in the knowledge that Ty would rather not still be at UNC. Ty must play chicken with the other PGs this year. It is a game of brinksmanship that should be very interesting over the next few months.

Ty's season left a bad taste. Frankly, as enjoyable as UNC's collapse was vs G-Town, it hurt Duke in the long run. I think OSU beats UNC in the FF by doing what G-Town did, turning UNC into an outside shooting team, and whipping them. A FF run by UNC would have sealed the deal as far as Wright and Lawson, and probably Hans going pro. Now, there is doubt as to Lawson and Hans, and Wright is probably at about 90% likely to go, whereas a FF run would have resulted in talk that he had already told Ol Roy that he was gonzo.

Regarding Hans, this sounds like info from a UNC homer, who wants it to be true. We have seen similiar occurrances. Deng was comming back, Dunleavy too, no way were Corey and Will Avery going pro, etc.

Let's face it, being the man on the UNC team is sweet. Plenty of adulation, etc. But all that ends once you declare for the pros. Look at what we did to McBob once he declared, and you can bet he is not recieving as much adulation around campus, if he's still there. Heck, I was in Shane's class at Duke, and when Elton declared, with the full support and encouragement of Coach K, it was obvious that he was not as beloved as before.

It was not that anyone was mean or disparaging, but dissappointed (selfish I know, but there it is). We wished him the best, but we wanted him to come back for the team, which every undergrad half considers him or herself to be a part of (6th man etc.). Our dissappointment was reflected. At the bus stop, around campus, at parties, there was a lot less hero worship, while the returning players and graduating seniors were as beloved as ever. (Don't blame the undergrads, you have to distance yourself so that the healing can begin)

If I was "the man" on a campus like Hans is, I would wait to announce until after school ended, when I was safely away from a bunch of kids who are apt to feel scorned. Also, it would be nice to be safely away from the local sports radio, newspaper columns, restaraunts, etc. (also, who wants to be out with your friends while some snotty yankee wearing a Duke T-shirt yells "thank you Tyler" at the mall? Nobody wants that)

Maybe these kids don't care about any of this, but maybe they do. Also, once their home, and away from the beautiful campus and smiling coeds, the money of the pros looks a little bit better.

I won't believe Hans is coming back until the early entry date has passed. Same for any other player in collge ball. I have seen too much to beleive any report, even if it is a televised interview with the player in question.

Patrick Yates

[Wander]

If Wright and Lawson leave, UNC will be just as good as if they stayed. Yeap, your ears are seeing right. Just as good, but not as dominant against lesser teams. Without Lawson and Wright, I think that they might well have a better shot at the prize.

Sorry, but you could not be more wrong. There is absolutely no way that UNC is as good/better with Frasor and Thompson playing in place of Lawson and Wright. Carolina will be good regardless of who leaves, but no matter what their roster looks like, it's better with Lawson and Wright in there.

[ikiru36]

Hansbrough, as a college player, is terrific. He has much, much more than one move; has great, as in a-one footwork and hands; tremendous imagination; and can deliver the ball from many different angles in many different ways from where the defender(s) are not. You guys are killing me.

If Wright and Lawson leave, UNC will be just as good as if they stayed. Yeap, your ears are seeing right. Just as good, but not as dominant against lesser teams. Without Lawson and Wright, I think that they might well have a better shot at the prize. Hansbrough will score the ball more, and have many more touches. The half court offense, which will run through him, will be much more effective. They will still run, but not play true Roy ball, which is entertaining but flawed; playing a more normal (for lack of a better term) style, I like their chances to make a real run at it all better. Or not. Just schmoozing.

GB, you make some valid points, but definitely overstate your case re: UNC's caliber w/o Wright or Lawson. I agree that some others are (perhaps vastly) understating the special skills of Hansbrough, but Wright was a matchup nightmare who unquestionably kept teams from being able to focus on Hansbrough, defensively. And Lawson's ability to penetrate and dish helped Hansbrough get the ball in excellent position much of the time (which for him is HUGE).

As you astutely point out, Roy has a favored style and Lawson/Wright fit that style far more than next year's squad would without them. Not that Roy can't/won't adjust to his personnel, but if Dean were still coaching, I'd agree with you more.

Finally, many seem to forget that in addition to whichever early entry guys they lose, Terry and Miller are not insignificant losses as well.

[whereinthehellami]

per draft express.com......

That sucks but is not unexpected. Count me as someone who doesn't want to like Hans but can't seem to muster up any real disdain for him. Despite his goofy moves and looks, he is very effective and I find myself constantly saying "How did he convert that?". He will be a horse next year and I fear for whoever goes up against him, though they won't be in for long, as they will be in foul trouble on the bench watching the Hanny parade at the foul line.

[Olympic Fan]

Put me in the camp of those who things Lawson's decision is vital for UNC next year.

They will still be good without him (and Wright), but if those two go, I don't see thing as real contenders. Lawson's erratic play may have been annoying at times, but he brings a dimension that Fraser lacks. A healthy Fraser will be better than the hobbled Fraser we saw this year (just as Paulus will be better if he's healthy next year), but at his best, he's not as dynamic a playmaker as Lawson's average game.

If Lawson and Wright stay, I see UNC as preseason No. 1 (unless all the Florida juniors and/or the Ohio State freshmen all return). If just Wright leaves, then I still think UNC is in the mix -- top 5, easy. If Wright AND Lawson leave, I think they are a second-10 kind of team. Only if Wright, Lawson AND Hansbrough leave do I worry about them being a top 25 team.

I have to take issue with Jason about Georgia Tech taking a step back without Young. He's a great talent and they lose the potential he won't be able to display, but measured by what he actually provided, I think they'll replace that easily and improve overall -- provided Crittenton stays.

The reason is that Hewitt will replace Young with a very talented guy in Gani Lawal, who is actually a better fit up front than Young. They also return Clinch, who provides an upgrade in outside shooting from what Young gave them last year.

I think a starting five of Crittendon, Clinch, Lawal, Smith and Dickey is better than what they had this year. They won't be as quite as good as they would have been with Young staying, but I think they're quite a bit better than they were with him this past season.

[greybeard]

Sorry, but you could not be more wrong. There is absolutely no way that UNC is as good/better with Frasor and Thompson playing in place of Lawson and Wright. Carolina will be good regardless of who leaves, but no matter what their roster looks like, it's better with Lawson and Wright in there.

You might well be right, I mean both are terrific, terrific players, especially Wright, but consider this.

1. A player occupying the ball as much as Lawson does costs something.

2. A team that runs on every possession costs something.

3. The first two are very entertaining; heck, that California team with Gathers and what's his name were terrific to watch; much better to watch than UNC.

4. A guess at the cost: there is something about players really "getting" the offensive game in the half court that I find compelling. Getting it on the offensive side of the ball in the half court leads, imo, to getting it defensively, especially as regards to players, as a team, being able to make key stops. When one guy occupies the ball as much as Lawson, or when a team runs out as much as UNC does this year, there is this "getting it" as a team that is, imo, absent.

How do we measure better? If it is a championship you are after, give me a team, a very, very talented team, that gets it, over this year's UNC team. Give me a Florida over an Ohio State, which clearly has the two best players on the court tonight.

So, while you may be right, I prefer my take even if I'm wrong. Huh?

[Rip]

He's an experienced choker.

He needs to stay.

[Jumbo]

Important to note that this isn't official. This is what DraftExpress actually says: "Tyler Hansbrough is expected to announce soon that he will be returning to North Carolina for his junior season. A family member of his that was in Atlanta made sure to let people know that he will almost certainly be back."

[Wander]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not as if the point guard is either going to be Ty Lawson or Bobby Hurley. You're not picking a fullcourt-oriented point guard vs. a halfcourt-oriented point guard of equal skill level/talent. You're picking between Lawson and Frasor, and, with all respect to Bobby, Lawson is much, much, much better than Frasor.

As for Wright, the kid played very well in the halfcourt setting as well, so the argument doesn't even apply there. Losing Wright is a significant loss - there's no way UNC becomes better because they lose him.

[ikiru36]

Important to note that this isn't official. This is what DraftExpress actually says: "Tyler Hansbrough is expected to announce soon that he will be returning to North Carolina for his junior season. A family member of his that was in Atlanta made sure to let people know that he will almost certainly be back."

Exactly. Was just checking on this, myself. Anyways, he certainly may be back but an unidentified "family member" saying "almost certainly" is definitely different than specifically announcing his intention. I imagine we'll know a lot more about many of these guys intentions within about a week or so and there are myriad reasons that people spread rumours, which this thusfar sounds to be.

[greybeard]

Roy, as a coach, has always loved this run-out game. IMO, it might have cost him more than one NCAA championship, including this year. When he is loaded, as he was this year, he cannot help himself. In fac, even if he wasn't so in love with the run-out game, he would have little choice. As it is, terrific players were getting very little minutes.

So, if Lawson and Wright are back, so is Roy-ball. The fault, dear Wander, is not in the players Lawson and Wright, but in Roy, who can't let go of it. Too bad, huh?

[gw67]

Two years ago, UNC had a decent team and they played uptempo. I would expect them to play that way next year regardless of player losses to the NBA. Frasor was hurt for much of the past season. He was a decent point guard two years ago and has a good a/TO ratio for the games he has played in his first two seasons. Ellington should improve and Green and Ginyard should replace Terry. Hansbrough will be the best big man in the ACC and Thompson/Stevenson should replace Wright. Not a great lineup, but a very good team on paper. If Lawson stays, they are deeper and better.

gw67

[Wander]

Roy, as a coach, has always loved this run-out game. IMO, it might have cost him more than one NCAA championship, including this year. When he is loaded, as he was this year, he cannot help himself. In fac, even if he wasn't so in love with the run-out game, he would have little choice. As it is, terrific players were getting very little minutes.

So, if Lawson and Wright are back, so is Roy-ball. The fault, dear Wander, is not in the players Lawson and Wright, but in Roy, who can't let go of it. Too bad, huh?

You're stretching things and just looking for reasons to justify your ridiculous statements. His run-out game didn't cost him an NCAA championship this year. - that doesn't make sense at all.

You are completely underestimating one of the best coaches, point guards, and forwards in the ACC.

[Drebly1]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not as if the point guard is either going to be Ty Lawson or Bobby Hurley. You're not picking a fullcourt-oriented point guard vs. a halfcourt-oriented point guard of equal skill level/talent. You're picking between Lawson and Frasor, and, with all respect to Bobby, Lawson is much, much, much better than Frasor.

As for Wright, the kid played very well in the halfcourt setting as well, so the argument doesn't even apply there. Losing Wright is a significant loss - there's no way UNC becomes better because they lose him.

I don't think that any sane person would consider the Heels better without Wright. My take is that the Heels can more easily afford to lose Wright than Lawson. Lawson, in my humble opinion, is not ready to play professionally. He is indeed very fast, but his perimeter game is not exactly polished, and his ability to make things happen when he takes the ball to the basket is lacking. If Wright defects (and a top-5 draft position more than justifies this) he has adequate players ready to step in and contribute. I cannot say that Frasor running the point makes me particularly confident. My prediction is that Lawson and Hansbrough stay, and Wright goes. Now all my Carolina brethren need is a valid excuse for Roy not winning it all in 2008 and we will be set.

[Wander]

I don't think that any sane person would consider the Heels better without Wright. My take is that the Heels can more easily afford to lose Wright than Lawson. Lawson, in my humble opinion, is not ready to play professionally. He is indeed very fast, but his perimeter game is not exactly polished, and his ability to make things happen when he takes the ball to the basket is lacking. If Wright defects (and a top-5 draft position more than justifies this) he has adequate players ready to step in and contribute. I cannot say that Frasor running the point makes me particularly confident. My prediction is that Lawson and Hansbrough stay, and Wright goes. Now all my Carolina brethren need is a valid excuse for Roy not winning it all in 2008 and we will be set.

I agree completely with everything you say.

[Patrick Yates]

If you are Bobby Frasor, and Tywon Lawson comes back, what do you do?

The heels are a virtual lock to land Larry Drew, the no. 2 pg (behind super freak jennings) in the class of 2008. If Lawson comes back, looking at leaving next year (probably), his replacement is comming in the next year as LD plays a similiar game to TL, which is the style Ol Roy wants to play (for better or worse).

BF might never get off the bench again. Given UNC's powerful staple of wings and SGs, where do BF's minutes and shots come from? He was a McD's AA, and there are tons of high major programs that would salivate over him, especially in the Big 10 where he is a prototypical PG.

If TL leaves, BF stays put. If TL stays, BF would be smart to hit the road.

One way or another, UNC gets thinner at the PG this year.

Patrick Yates

[greybeard]

You're stretching things and just looking for reasons to justify your ridiculous statements. His run-out game didn't cost him an NCAA championship this year. - that doesn't make sense at all.

You are completely underestimating one of the best coaches, point guards, and forwards in the ACC.

Beg to differ. You have another reason all those Kansas teams didn't win? Why they still don't? As in the big one? This is my guess. What's yours?

You like the run-out game, fine, that is what makes horse racing. Some might think that calling my statements "ridiculous" is opprobrius. Me, I wouldn't say so because that would be rude. You do know what rude means?

UNC lost many games this year that teams with their kind of talent shouldn't. I happen to believe that Roy's style of play is conducive to being more prone to that.

No one is saying that he is not a great, great coach.

"The errors of great men are venerable, they are more fruitful than the truths of lesser men."

Personally, I prefer K's approach to the game above Roy's, both from an esthetic, and functional perspective. K would never opt for the run-out style that Roy prefers, and there have been teams that were oh so built for it. J Will at the point, Maggette on the bench, flyers on the wings. If you prefer the run out style and care to explain yourself, I'm all ears.

What I meant to say is that I preferred UNC two years ago, to this past year, and it's championship team, in my opinion, was closer to the former than the latter. What is your view?

[Troublemaker]

If Lawson comes back, we would need Collison, Afflalo, Oden, Green, Hibbert, etc to come back as well. I shudder at the thought of another UNC championship. Agree that Lawson is the key. With him there, UNC never has to play against a set defense.

[Wander]

Beg to differ. You have another reason all those Kansas teams didn't win? Why they still don't? As in the big one? This is my guess. What's yours?

You like the run-out game, fine, that is what makes horse racing. Some might think that calling my statements "ridiculous" is opprobrius. Me, I wouldn't say so because that would be rude. You do know what rude means?


Who's talking about Kansas? We're talking about this year, and Roy's run-out style did not cause him to lose a championship this year. Unless you were watching a different UNC-Georgetown game than I was.

I don't like the run-out game. My favorite style of play is actually the lockdown defense of Southern Illinois.

Your statements suggesting that UNC wouldn't be hurt - and might even be improved - by losing Wright and Lawson are absurd, and they display a poor understanding of either those two individuals or the UNC team as a whole. There's plenty of room for intelligent debate on which one of Wright/Lawson is more valuable and their exact roles on the team, but your statements are, in fact, ridiculous. There's no need to be sensitive about it either - I'm not insulting you, just pointing out that you're very wrong about something.

[DevilWolf]

Is it really even a question if Hansbrough will be back next year?

[yancem]

A team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach is not going to "struggle to stay in the top 25. " However, Lawson is probably the difference between UNC being a serious title contender and a Top 25 team.

Does a team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach really sound that much better than a team with a top 6 of McRoberts, Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer and Thomas with Coach K as the coach?

Granted, next year's ACC will most likely be weaker than this year's and next year's UNC team will be more experienced than this year's Duke team but compare them player by player with based on your expectations of the UNC players next year vs your expectations for the Duke players prior to this season.

Who would you taken Paulus or Frasor? Nelson or Ginyard? Henderson or Green? Scheyer or Ellington? Thomas or Thompson? McRoberts or Hansbough? If you'd take more than 3 UNC players then you probably didn't have very high expectations for this years team. Hans is the only true star for UNC next year if Lawson and Wright are gone. Ellington could be you never know. They may jell well and be great or they could fall in and out of the top 25 and be .500 in the ACC just like Duke did this year.

[Wander]

Does a team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach really sound that much better than a team with a top 6 of McRoberts, Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer and Thomas with Coach K as the coach?


Remember, though, you're comparing the Duke players of this past year to the UNC players of next year. That's an important aspect of the comparison you're making.

Hansbrough 2008 over McRoberts 2007, Thompson 2008 over Thomas 2007, Ellington 2008 over Scheyer 2007, and Green 2008 over Henderson 2007. Ginyard 2008 about the same as Nelson 2007. Paulus is the only one I'd give a clear advantage to over Frasor.

I expect the Duke freshmen - Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas - to all improve significantly though. For example, there's no way Ellington was better than Scheyer this season, and I think Scheyer will be better again next season, but if you're comparing next year's Ellington to this year's Scheyer... that's a big difference.

[dukeENG2003]

Judging from the 2003 in your moniker you may not remember how adept Ferry was at drawing at fouls that had most non Duke fans screeching.

Just because a Duke player did it doesn't mean I have to like it. Duke players, even those with their jerseys retired, aren't beyond reproach. I wasn't a big fan of the Shane Battier flop either (although I recognize that only a small percentage of the charges he drew were flops, and the line between a flop and a legitimate charge call is blurry at best). If it was indeed a focus of of his game to try and draw fouls rather than try and score from the field, then I guess I dislike that as well.

As a basketball player myself as well as a fan, nothing aggravates me more than those players who focus on drawing fouls more than playing the game as it was meant to be played. This is just my opinion of course, I realize that it is not my position to dictate to others how the game is to be played, all I can speak to is how I THINK it should be played and how I try to play myself.

[MarkD83]

Patrick Yates is correct. When it comes to declaring for the draft don't believe what anyone says until the deadline passes.

Also, one poster mentioned that Lawson does not have the skills to play in the NBA. Since when did that stop anyone from going pro early?

Finally, every year I read threads about what colleges could do to keep more players from going pro. (This might as well be the thread.) All of the suggestions revolve around what the NBA should do. The NCAA needs to wake up and realize that the NBA wants everyone to declare for the draft.

A good NBA general manager wants lots of players so that he can claim that he will draft some average player, in order for a bad general manager to believe the hype and make a bad choice.

The owners want lots of players so that they can draft someone with potential and let go a veteran who is being paid more. In addition, if there are lots of quality players in the draft the owners can get one of them in the 2nd round and pay them less than they are worth.

If the NCAA wants to keep players in college they need to do something drastic. My suggestion is the NCAA should let a player declare for the draft, get drafted, go tryout and if they don't like the team they are on or they are cut they can come back in January and play for their college team. If they take any money during this time they need to repay the NCAA and their "amateur" status will be restored. Sounds stupid but its better than what happens now.

[glutton]

I've tried to hate Hansbrough but I can't. He plays hard all the time and is a reliable free throw shooter. He doesn't showboat or thump his own chest. Did I mention he plays hard all the time? I can't hate guys like that.

I agree he gets away with a certain amount of rough play, but on the other hand he is constantly clobbered down low. I think it cuts both ways enough to be a wash.

weird... I have absolutely no trouble hating hansbrough. it's not quite the same as the disdain I have towards someone like rudy gay (who can barely be bothered to try most of the time, and showboats when he does). but the way hansbrough reacts to being fouled, and having fouls called against him... it seems very much like a "he can dish out, but he can't take it" sort of situation. plus, sometimes I just want to reach into the tv and close his mouth for him.

[phaedrus]

lawson has expressed his distaste for practicing. he's not going to stay around to "polish" his perimeter game.

[Carter431]

Do we already know that GT's Young is declaring? Did I miss that article?

[greybeard]

If Wright and Lawson are so good, and Roy's love of the run-out at all costs offense does not hurt when the run-outs are stopped, how do you explain the two loses to VT? How do you explain the loss to Georgetown? I saw a flawed UNC team in the half court, at both ends. You saw something different, you are blind, not just ridiculous.

Wright is terrific but Georgetown completely shut him down. Lawson was a nonfactor too, once the game required possessions, defending penetration with the pass, on the one hand, and depending almost exclusively on Lawson's breaking the defense down, which just was not happening, and Hansbrough's inability to get it done against the Hoya's bigs. They did not score for how long? Can you possibly see that happening to a loaded Duke team? Of course not.

So, what I saw two years ago was a disciplined Roy who had the horses to run but was committed to a terrific half court game to win the big ones. That is a very different coach than we saw this year, or, at least, that I saw this year. If Wright and Lawson return, we will see Roy-ball and they will not win.

Certainly if Green were to come back, Hibbert definitely will, UNC will not have a prayer against Georgetown playing Roy-ball. Their only chance would be to develop a style that can play in the half court with poise, with a game in which the ball is passed, not dribbled to death. That is my opinion, and I am sticking to it. And, don't tell me that calling my view ridiculous is not insulting. That is pure nonsense.

[Wander]

If you want to be sensitive and cry about it when I point out that you make a ridiculous statement like Lawson and Wright leaving won't hurt UNC, then I guess that's your choice.

UNC lost to Georgetown because in those last whatever-amount-of-minutes, they did everything wrong. Everything. Half court stuff, full court stuff, coaching, shooting, offense, defense, time-out usage, you name it. And Georgetown took full advantage.

Ever think Wright and Lawson were shut down because they were freshmen playing in an NCAA tournament Elite 8? Or maybe because they just had a bad game? Wright showed no problem playing in the halfcourt throughout the year. That one game doesn't overrule what those two did for an entire season.

You're just being a biased fan and trying desperately to find things to attack about your rival team/coach.

[Troublemaker]

If Wright and Lawson are so good, and Roy's love of the run-out at all costs offense does not hurt when the run-outs are stopped, how do you explain the two loses to VT? How do you explain the loss to Georgetown?

How do you explain Florida getting their butts kicked by Tennessee? I mean, going undefeated is tough.

The loss to Georgetown especially should not be used as evidence of a problem with Roy's system. I think the vast majority of people who watched that game thought UNC was firmly in control throughout the game until they tightened up at the end (perhaps due to youth). In my estimation, UNC wins 4 out of 5 against Georgetown. They choked, but that's very different form saying their system is flawed. They just won a championship in 05 playing the same way.

[Patrick Yates]

People are forgetting one thing about the G-Town game for UNC. G-Town has very talented bigs, especially on D. Late in the game, when the refs tend to let the play get a little physical, which is typical in the NCAA, you have to make some outside shots.

Not necessarily threes, but you have to make some mid range jumpers at the least. G-Town defended these well.

This forced UNC to have to rely on the only glaring weakness on the team this year, outside shooting. Where was a decent outside shooter on this year's team?

Ellington was merely OK as a shooter this year, and CNN.com had an article where a pro scout said that he had never seen Ellington shoot well in a game, and that he tended to miss big shots. (He's a freshman, so that may/can change.)


3s are Lawson's weakness (along with that allegy to playing D).

Miller had an awful year shooting. Frasor was hurt all year. Terry couldn't throw it in the ocean from 3 land this year, and Green and Ginyard were not reliable outside shooters this year.

Face it, when it came to shooting the three, there was no reliable outside threat. This was the book on UNC. You couldn't run with them, and they were pretty good in the half court. You had to have bigs capable of discouraging penetration and defending UNC's bigs. The best hope of beating UNC was to turn them into an outside shooting team and hope they were missing. They were capable of hitting outside shots, but it was their one glaring weakness this year.

Their style or players were not the reason they lost. G-Town was a team that could go into Zone and actually stop UNC thanks to their powerful bigs. The only way to beat a zone? Threes. UNC couldn't hit them.

With a healthy Frasor (if he is there next year) and an offseason in the gym, for the others, this will not be such a glaring weakness next year.

Patrick Yates

[gw67]

Patrick - I agree with your summary. Outside shooting was definitely a weakness this past year although it didn't jump out at you because they had a very strong inside game and scored a bunch on fast breaks. I saw Ginyard play in high school and he couldn't shoot then so I don't expect any improvement from him next year. Similarly, Green and Frasor seem to be an average to poor outside shooters. Ellington , on the other hand, appears to be a good jump shooter. It appeared to me that he, Scheyer and Hayes of Maryland hit the freshman wall during the last few weeks of the season.

gw67

[yancem]

Remember, though, you're comparing the Duke players of this past year to the UNC players of next year. That's an important aspect of the comparison you're making.

Hansbrough 2008 over McRoberts 2007, Thompson 2008 over Thomas 2007, Ellington 2008 over Scheyer 2007, and Green 2008 over Henderson 2007. Ginyard 2008 about the same as Nelson 2007. Paulus is the only one I'd give a clear advantage to over Frasor.

I expect the Duke freshmen - Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas - to all improve significantly though. For example, there's no way Ellington was better than Scheyer this season, and I think Scheyer will be better again next season, but if you're comparing next year's Ellington to this year's Scheyer... that's a big difference.


I know that I'm suggesting the comparison of Duke 07 to UNC 08 but I think that you are looking at how the Duke players turned out vs how you think that the UNC players will turn out. I'm want to compare pre-season expectations for Duke 07 vs preseaon expectations of UNC 08.

If McRoberts had been the 17-19 point offensive performer that many people thought, then I am not sure you take 08 Hansbrough over him. There is no way that I expect Ginyard to be the 15 point, 5 rebound player that I thought Nelson would be this year. Scheyer performed the first half of the season about how I expected but his performace slipped a little down the stretch. I don't know if my expectations for Ellington next year are any higher than what I expected of Jon this year. My expectations of Henderson were on par with Scheyer but his performance was the opposite, slow start strong finish. Again I'm not sure Green next year will be any better than what Henderson was capable of this year. I agree that Paulus over Frasor is the easiest call. The wild card is Thomas vs Thompson. Thomas didn't develop as much as I hoped this year (manly due to fould problems) and Thopmson was better than expected. The question is: does Thompson flurish with the additional playing time or does regular playing time reveal some weaknesses? I'd probably give the edge to 08 Thompson.

Maybe, I was too optimistic about the Duke players this year or not giving the UNC players enough respect but my point is still pretty valid: Duke was predicted to be 2nd in the ACC with McRoberts challenging for player of the year in the ACC (and maybe nationally), Paulus and Nelson were supposed to have breakout years and the freshman were supposed to shine. Not everything turned out that way, which often happens when trying to predict based player growth and the impact of freshman. UNC also didn't match expectations this year because of those factors. With Hansbrough the only real proven commodity next year might be the same for UNC.

[greybeard]

So you think Roy ball is the way to go, the way to win it all? Run-out on misses and makes, fast break basketball to the nines if you have the horses? My guess, Wright and Lawson will go out this year. Hansbrough will be back and Carolina will be a better team next year than they were this without Roy ball. But, I really like your debating style. Very insightful analysis.

BTW, without Humphry shooting 3s, and Brewer doing everything, Noah just ain't all that, imo. In yours?

[CMS2478]

So you think Roy ball is the way to go, the way to win it all? Run-out on misses and makes, fast break basketball to the nines if you have the horses? My guess, Wright and Lawson will go out this year. Hansbrough will be back and Carolina will be a better team next year than they were this without Roy ball. But, I really like your debating style. Very insightful analysis.

BTW, without Humphry shooting 3s, and Brewer doing everything, Noah just ain't all that, imo. In yours?

greybeard,

I know you weren't really asking my opinion, but I'll give it anyways. ;) Is Noah good? Sure, he gets a lot of help from his teammates and that makes him look better then he is. But the kid plays hard and is very athletic for his size which will make him a decent player in the NBA. He is not very "polished" and needs to work on his jumpshot some more, but to say he "ain't all that" is a little harsh in my opinion. But you are entitled to your opinion as well. :D

[greybeard]

greybeard,

I know you weren't really asking my opinion, but I'll give it anyways. ;) Is Noah good? Sure, he gets a lot of help from his teammates and that makes him look better then he is. But the kid plays hard and is very athletic for his size which will make him a decent player in the NBA. He is not very "polished" and needs to work on his jumpshot some more, but to say he "ain't all that" is a little harsh in my opinion. But you are entitled to your opinion as well. :D

Just meant to say a couple of things. First, Noah was the face of the Florida team and I enjoyed his energy and style of play, but I think that he was the third or fourth, and possibly fifth best player at his position on that team. Second, I think that mentioning him as a high lottery pick, as many have all season, was off the mark.

Can he develop the shooting ability to make his passing skills and energy work in the pros, I'm not saying no. Yeap, I did come on "a little harsh."

[CMS2478]

Just meant to say a couple of things. First, Noah was the face of the Florida team and I enjoyed his energy and style of play, but I think that he was the third or fourth, and possibly fifth best player at his position on that team. Second, I think that mentioning him as a high lottery pick, as many have all season, was off the mark.

Can he develop the shooting ability to make his passing skills and energy work in the pros, I'm not saying no. Yeap, I did come on "a little harsh."

I actually agree with you as well. He is a good player, but I also think he is made out to be a great player due to the hype. In my opinion the hype comes from the trash-talking, the hair, the confident swagger, the chest-pounding, etc. Take all that away and he is a good post player, but we have bought into the hype that he is great bc of all the publicity he receives. I just wish the guy wouldn't trash-talk and pound his chest after picking his nose. Not everything you do is worthy of bragging and acting like you have accomplished something noone else ever has. :eek:

[Shammrog]

Say what you want about Hansbrough. He makes the most of what he has, and is an outstanding college player.

Duke would have been a lot better off this year with a player like Hansborough - toughness, focus, and intensity - on the roster.

[unwrinkled ear]

weird... I have absolutely no trouble hating hansbrough. it's not quite the same as the disdain I have towards someone like rudy gay (who can barely be bothered to try most of the time, and showboats when he does). but the way hansbrough reacts to being fouled, and having fouls called against him... it seems very much like a "he can dish out, but he can't take it" sort of situation. plus, sometimes I just want to reach into the tv and close his mouth for him.


thank you for being the voice of reasonable dislike.
tyler hansbroo is disgusting.
impossible to ever want to see anything good happen to him

[Wander]

BTW, without Humphry shooting 3s, and Brewer doing everything, Noah just ain't all that, imo. In yours?

I think the media has been ridiculous to try and make Noah the star of that team, like Redick or Morrison were for Duke/Gonzaga last year. The reason Florida was so great is because they played amazing as a team, not because they had any one great individual. I would say that as college players (not NBA potential), their entire starting five are about equal. You could argue I guess that Brewer was a little bit better than Humphrey or something like that (my personal opinion is that Brewer was the best of the five), but I think that's missing the point: no one of the five was that far and away better or worse than the other four, and I agree it's stupid that some people tried to make Noah the obvious best player on the team.

[A-Tex Devil]

weird... I have absolutely no trouble hating hansbrough. it's not quite the same as the disdain I have towards someone like rudy gay (who can barely be bothered to try most of the time, and showboats when he does). but the way hansbrough reacts to being fouled, and having fouls called against him... it seems very much like a "he can dish out, but he can't take it" sort of situation. plus, sometimes I just want to reach into the tv and close his mouth for him.

I agree with the dish it but can't take it attitude. Especially after his post-Georgetown comments. I mean, I know he was upset, but how can a player with his style complain about getting bumped? He virtually creates it all!

I'll be interested if Hansborough can translate his Shaq, Jr. offensive style into the NBA. He's an accomplished foul shooter, but dudes are a lot bigger than him in the NBA. He's gonna be on the floor ALOT.

All that being said, I'm sure if he had been a Dukie, I would have loved having him.

[gep]

If the NCAA wants to keep players in college they need to do something drastic. My suggestion is the NCAA should let a player declare for the draft, get drafted, go tryout and if they don't like the team they are on or they are cut they can come back in January and play for their college team. If they take any money during this time they need to repay the NCAA and their "amateur" status will be restored. Sounds stupid but its better than what happens now.

This is interesting... maybe also have the agent pay back the NCAA if the player doesn't make it and wants to go back to college. This might keep agents "honest"...

[greybeard]

I think the media has been ridiculous to try and make Noah the star of that team, like Redick or Morrison were for Duke/Gonzaga last year. The reason Florida was so great is because they played amazing as a team, not because they had any one great individual. I would say that as college players (not NBA potential), their entire starting five are about equal. You could argue I guess that Brewer was a little bit better than Humphrey or something like that (my personal opinion is that Brewer was the best of the five), but I think that's missing the point: no one of the five was that far and away better or worse than the other four, and I agree it's stupid that some people tried to make Noah the obvious best player on the team.

A little too liberal use of the term "ridiculous", for my taste, but I basically agree. I like the way you put it in giving Brewer the edge. My take too and I would not have captured it with the same nuance. "And, yet there are still some people who insist that there is no such thing as progress." KV, The Sirens of Titan.

[Wander]

It's definately one of those words I overuse.

[Clipsfan]

I don't think that any sane person would consider the Heels better without Wright. My take is that the Heels can more easily afford to lose Wright than Lawson. Lawson, in my humble opinion, is not ready to play professionally. He is indeed very fast, but his perimeter game is not exactly polished, and his ability to make things happen when he takes the ball to the basket is lacking. If Wright defects (and a top-5 draft position more than justifies this) he has adequate players ready to step in and contribute. I cannot say that Frasor running the point makes me particularly confident. My prediction is that Lawson and Hansbrough stay, and Wright goes. Now all my Carolina brethren need is a valid excuse for Roy not winning it all in 2008 and we will be set.

I think that the NBA is willing to draft someone like Lawson who is incredibly fast but not all that polished on the offensive game. Look at Felton and TJ Ford, for instance. I don't remember Felton being polished on the perimiter (although decent?) and I know that Ford couldn't hit an outside shot (and still struggles to do so), but both fit into the style of play which the NBA has been moving towards recently. There is plenty of room for guys who are really quick, can dish the ball, and don't turn it over stupidly. Lawson fits that mold well, and can work on his outside shot as he makes $2mm/year.

[Clipsfan]

A little too liberal use of the term "ridiculous", for my taste, but I basically agree. I like the way you put it in giving Brewer the edge. My take too and I would not have captured it with the same nuance. "And, yet there are still some people who insist that there is no such thing as progress." KV, The Sirens of Titan.

I think that Brewer was best of the bunch (and obviously the MOP voters agreed), but most importantly I think that Brewer could easily be the best pro of the bunch. He is definitely a lottery pick as of now, and could possibly be in the top 5.

[Troublemaker]

I know that I'm suggesting the comparison of Duke 07 to UNC 08 but I think that you are looking at how the Duke players turned out vs how you think that the UNC players will turn out. I'm want to compare pre-season expectations for Duke 07 vs preseaon expectations of UNC 08.
....

The expectations for Duke 07 were more volatile due to the team's youth. UNC 08 without Lawson and Wright would be a mature team, and it'd be fairly shocking if they had the type of season Duke 07 just did, especially when you consider the dropoff in talent the ACC should experience.

[Channing]

FWIW, bothe NBADraft.net and DraftExpress have pulled Ty Lawson out of their mock drafts.

[CMS2478]

FWIW, bothe NBADraft.net and DraftExpress have pulled Ty Lawson out of their mock drafts.

That doesn't appear to be good news.........do they know something we don't :confused:

[TheDuke11]

i never saw lawson on any of the nbadraft.net mock drafts anyway.

[CMS2478]

i never saw lawson on any of the nbadraft.net mock drafts anyway.

He was on draftexpress.com as a first rounder and he is not there now.

[yancem]

The expectations for Duke 07 were more volatile due to the team's youth. UNC 08 without Lawson and Wright would be a mature team, and it'd be fairly shocking if they had the type of season Duke 07 just did, especially when you consider the dropoff in talent the ACC should experience.

That's a good point but while UNC 08 would be more mature I think that they would have less talent. Frasor, Green and Ginyard are nice support players but I don't think they're all ACC caliber. Thompson is as much of a wild card as Duke 07's freshman. This leaves a very proven Hansbrough and a talented but not overly proven Ellington. You also have to factor in that the loss loss of 4 players would significantly shorten UNC 08's bench.

I'm not saying that UNC 08 minus Wright and Lawson can't be a top 25 team, just that it is far from a given. Wander said "A team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach is not going to "struggle to stay in the top 25. " I just think with a thin bench and not much in the proven category other than Hansbrough (granted Ellington has a lot of potential) UNC 08 may find itself seeing a season mirroring Duke 07.

[Troublemaker]

That's a good point but while UNC 08 would be more mature I think that they would have less talent. Frasor, Green and Ginyard are nice support players but I don't think they're all ACC caliber. Thompson is as much of a wild card as Duke 07's freshman. This leaves a very proven Hansbrough and a talented but not overly proven Ellington. You also have to factor in that the loss loss of 4 players would significantly shorten UNC 08's bench.

I'm not saying that UNC 08 minus Wright and Lawson can't be a top 25 team, just that it is far from a given. Wander said "A team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach is not going to "struggle to stay in the top 25. " I just think with a thin bench and not much in the proven category other than Hansbrough (granted Ellington has a lot of potential) UNC 08 may find itself seeing a season mirroring Duke 07.

Anything's possible but I would consider it extremely unlikely. I don't think UNC 08 would be less talented than Duke 07. Frasor and Paulus had similar freshmen seasons, and then Lawson took Frasor's job, which he'll get back if Lawson leaves. I consider Scheyer to be a better player than Ellington but most people would disagree and have Ellington as the higher rated player/talent. Green is just a good player -- shoots well from three and from the FT line, and plays very good defense. Not dissimilar at all from Nelson and Henderson, and actually, I would expect him to be better than both Duke 07 players. Thompson has shown more than enough that you can't say he's "as much of a wild card as Duke 07's freshman." He should almost certainly be better than Thomas and Zoubek were since he already is better. And Hansbrough > McRoberts. I wouldn't say they'd have a thin bench, either, at least no more thin than Duke 07. Ginyard is very useful -- great defender and energy/rebounding from the guard spot. QT will be a senior and is talented and should give Frasor a run for his money at the PG spot. With UNC's ability to develop big men, Stepheson should be a good player off the bench. He's talented. Throw in Graves off a redshirt year, and I'd expect UNC to be solidly 8 deep. To summarize, in this hypothetical comparison between Duke 07 and UNC 08, UNC 08 would have both better players and more maturity. They should almost certainly be the better team.

[yancem]

Troublemaker

I guess that I either had much higher expectations from the 07 Duke players than you did or your letting their actual performance distort your original expectations.

[Troublemaker]

Troublemaker

I guess that I either had much higher expectations from the 07 Duke players than you did or your letting their actual performance distort your original expectations.

I don't think preseason expectations of Duke 07 is relevant to the comparison, though, at least not to the one I'm making. Actual performance is relevant. Since we've seen the season play out, we know what Duke 07's actual performance is, and what I'm saying is that I highly doubt UNC 08 will perform at or below that level even without Lawson and Wright.

[Channing]

"Ty Lawson will be staying at North Carolina for his sophomore season, tells us a source very close to the situation. The source told us that Lawson did not go to Chapel Hill just to be one and done, and that if solely “making” the NBA was his goal, he would have gone somewhere that would have given him a better opportunity to pad his stats and “be the man.” Lawson reportedly wants to leave North Carolina with a legacy behind him, and declaring for the draft after losing the way he did in the Elite Eight is not what he had planned."

http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1985

Of course, this is the same rumor that came out about Thabeet a week or two ago and it now appears he is going to test the waters.

http://www.nbadraft.net/draftbuzz068.asp

[TheDuke11]

well that really makes me question the integrity of the unc academic institution because this kid hasnt been to class since november.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

well that really makes me question the integrity of the unc academic institution because this kid hasnt been to class since november.

And you know this how?

[Cameron]

Yes, TheDuke, what is your source for this information on Lawson? Because, as much as I would love to believe this and for it to come to light sometime soon on ESPN, I have a hard time believing you have a credible source for this information, other than from a message board rumor or something.

But, if you do, then could you share it?

[TheDuke11]

wow, i had no idea so many people WERENT aware of ty's academic, um, standing.

i know some people with some direct contact w/ ty.

[zingit]

A friend of mine at UNC who had a class with Brandan Wright says he almost always comes to class. Darnit.

[throatybeard]

I wouldn't base anything on whether I had seen an athlete physically in class or not. Current NCAA athletes must subscribe to a rather postmodern notion of "going to class." They have to be gone half the time anyway, they have tutors out the ya-ya, and if it's a large lecture class, the tutor can basically re-teach them the class using the notes and knowledge of the subject area. Arguably, for any "content delivery" class as opposed to a discussion-based class, with good tutors, you're better off than you would be sitting at the back of a 150-body lecture hall. These tutors are often people like ABD grad students in the content area--it's not like they're just grabbing someone off the street.

Even the out-of-class work is covered. Good academic support programs will arrange custom-fit situations. I got a call out of the blue a few years ago from Brad Berndt asking if I could help two Duke FB players with a Linguistics project. Given that we had just 4 grad students in the program at the time, and I was the most senior of the 4, I was probably the most-qualified non-faculty person on campus to do that. (Now that's a little sad, haha). Berndt's outfit really impressed me with that--with a smaller discipline, you're not going to have 300 people running around who can offer that degree of specialization, like you might with an entry-level Math lecture or something.

So in the right sort of class, they can go to class without having gone to class. This isn't the case in an upper-level [discussion-style] seminar on James Joyce, but it can work for Intro to Just About Anything, for lots of big Math classes, Econ, all sorts of things. Professors/instructors are using webCT more than ever, and the handout/notes for lots of these lecture classes are up on the web anyway.

The most-widespread difficulty with this system, I think, is Freshman Writing. Everybody has to take it and in a good writing program you pretty much have to be in class to get what's going on. And it tends to be three days a week. And thesis-driven writing is something it takes like 5 years to develop anyway. I couldn't write an essay worth crap until about halfway through my MA.

[Lavabe]

I wouldn't base anything on whether I had seen an athlete physically in class or not. Current NCAA athletes must subscribe to a rather postmodern notion of "going to class." They have to be gone half the time anyway, they have tutors out the ya-ya, and if it's a large lecture class, the tutor can basically re-teach them the class using the notes and knowledge of the subject area. Arguably, for any "content delivery" class as opposed to a discussion-based class, with good tutors, you're better off than you would be sitting at the back of a 150-body lecture hall. These tutors are often people like ABD grad students in the content area--it's not like they're just grabbing someone off the street.

Even the out-of-class work is covered. Good academic support programs will arrange custom-fit situations. I got a call out of the blue a few years ago from Brad Berndt asking if I could help two Duke FB players with a Linguistics project. Given that we had just 4 grad students in the program at the time, and I was the most senior of the 4, I was probably the most-qualified non-faculty person on campus to do that. (Now that's a little sad, haha). Berndt's outfit really impressed me with that--with a smaller discipline, you're not going to have 300 people running around who can offer that degree of specialization, like you might with an entry-level Math lecture or something.

So in the right sort of class, they can go to class without having gone to class. This isn't the case in an upper-level [discussion-style] seminar on James Joyce, but it can work for Intro to Just About Anything, for lots of big Math classes, Econ, all sorts of things. Professors/instructors are using webCT more than ever, and the handout/notes for lots of these lecture classes are up on the web anyway.

The most-widespread difficulty with this system, I think, is Freshman Writing. Everybody has to take it and in a good writing program you pretty much have to be in class to get what's going on. And it tends to be three days a week. And thesis-driven writing is something it takes like 5 years to develop anyway.

The WebCT/Blackboard portal systems allow professors to monitor participation and access without too much trouble. Add in podcasting, other technology advances, and improved tutoring, AND the large intro class can work well in many cases. I still think, however, it does leave things open for abuse in places that do not have the resources that I just mentioned.

I cannot agree enough about Freshman Writing and Seminar classes. Duke may have the resources. Most public land-grant schools probably have the resources.

Yet I wonder about many Division I schools that do not have graduate programs in all the disciplines in which these athletes take class. For example, I once applied for a job at Auburn, and the department in which I applied had no MA or PhD program. The same holds true for another four Division I jobs to which I applied. No grad students... so who trains these student-athletes?

As for resources on the web, I realize that many notes and handouts for Intro-level courses are on the web, but in the discipline I teach, the information on the web is often conflicting, sometimes contradictory with lecture & text, and often of dubious validity. Most colleagues in the discipline I teach never give the same lecture twice, as information changes that rapidly. I also attended a university conference on information literacy in which this has become a major issue in many disciplines. Wiki, Google, and top ten web sites may readily conflict with classroom content, to the point of confusing many students.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I know that Dean used to have the assistant coaches check in on the students pretty often to make sure that they were going to class. I would be suprised if Roy isn't doing the same thing.

[throatybeard]

The WebCT/Blackboard portal systems allow professors to monitor participation and access without too much trouble. Add in podcasting, other technology advances, and improved tutoring, AND the large intro class can work well in many cases. I still think, however, it does leave things open for abuse in places that do not have the resources that I just mentioned.

I cannot agree enough about Freshman Writing and Seminar classes. Duke may have the resources. Most public land-grant schools probably have the resources.

Yet I wonder about many Division I schools that do not have graduate programs in all the disciplines in which these athletes take class. For example, I once applied for a job at Auburn, and the department in which I applied had no MA or PhD program. The same holds true for another four Division I jobs to which I applied. No grad students... so who trains these student-athletes?

As for resources on the web, I realize that many notes and handouts for Intro-level courses are on the web, but in the discipline I teach, the information on the web is often conflicting, sometimes contradictory with lecture & text, and often of dubious validity. Most colleagues in the discipline I teach never give the same lecture twice, as information changes that rapidly. I also attended a university conference on information literacy in which this has become a major issue in many disciplines. Wiki, Google, and top ten web sites may readily conflict with classroom content, to the point of confusing many students.

Cheers,
Lavabe

I agree completely with Lavabe, more than I agree with what I said, frankly. (I was just trying to support the idea that, just becuase you haven't seen one guy in on class, it doesn't mean that he's not doing any academic work).

Covertly, the academic support system in athletics actually supports the idea that we do, indeed, do something worthwhile in class that you cannot get elsewhere. It does that by steering athletes into classes that, for structural reasons, best lend themselves to skipping class and doing stuff with a tutor later. Thus, there's a covert admission there that only some classes lend themselves to this sort of solution. The example I always use is that there were stories going around about how the athletic department wasn't real happy about "letting" Shane Battier major in Religion. (Shane freaking Battier, not John Q. PF). The steering phenomenon has less to do with real or perceived ease of courses and more to do with structural constraints: lectures, morning classes, and tests (counterintuitively, perhaps) are more adaptable to the academic support model than are seminars, afternoon classes and papers. (At least papers that require well-supported thesis-driven arguments). It's not so much that "Sociology is easy" (a common canard) as much as that the Soc Dept tends to teach a lot of their upper level classes in lectures of about 60 students with break-away TAs. How many basketball players major in English? Almost none. That's becuase Jr/Sr English classes involve long, thesis-driven papers and sitting around in class for 75 minutes at a time participating in a discussion. Often in the afternoon. The tutor can't re-create that.

The academic support system, like everything else in the University, also depends on networks of personal relationships. Professor A is willing to be cool with us about compromises X, Y and Z. We've been sending her kids for 20 years. Professor B has been less accommodating. Let's avoid him. Professor A likes teaching TTH at 9:10 every semester. That works. Professor B teaches at MWF at 2:00. Screw that. A University is a big bureaucratic hierarchy modeled on the medieval church. Once you figure out a solution to a problem, you keep going to the well.

Lavabe's also right about resources. Fewer resources lead to more abuses. Academic integrity in undergraduate instruction is a commodity, like everything else in the capitalist world. It has to be financed.

[yancem]

I don't think preseason expectations of Duke 07 is relevant to the comparison, though, at least not to the one I'm making. Actual performance is relevant. Since we've seen the season play out, we know what Duke 07's actual performance is, and what I'm saying is that I highly doubt UNC 08 will perform at or below that level even without Lawson and Wright.

Actually, the preseason expectations of Duke 07 was my whole point. What would you have thought if I said to you before the season started that Duke would finish 8-8 in the ACC? Based in on what I saw out of McRoberts, Paulus and Nelson in 06 and my expectations of the income freshman, I thought that 10-6 or 11-5 and second place in the ACC was fairly reasonable. Keeping the sweet 16 string a live also seemed very reasonable. But Paulus had a foot injury and didn't seem to get his rhythm until late in the year, McRoberts struggled being the offensive focus (although I thought he had a better year than many seem to give him credit for) and while Nelson had a solid year it wasn't quite the break year I thought he was capable of.

Neither Thompson, Ginard or Green have as many starts as those 3 Duke players had coming into this season. Frasor had a solid freshman year but didn't play much this year. And Ellington was highly rated coming out of highschool and had a solid freshman year but struggled a fair bit as well. This leaves Hansbrough as the only truly know commodity.

It is reasonable to expect Ellington to blossom next year being more of the focus offensively. Frasor could return to form and build upon his freshman successes. Thompson may develop into a real post presence. Ginard and Green should grow into larger roles. All of which is speculation, informed and reasonable but speculation none the less. Just like the speculation and expectations of Duke 07.

I think that even without Wright or Lawson, UNC will have a solid team and could in fact be the beast team in the ACC. But I think there are simply too many questions to pencil them in as a definite top 25 team.

[VaDukie]

If Tyler puts on a jersey and Roy Williams is the coach, UNC is in the top 25. Period.

[JasonEvans]

I know that Dean used to have the assistant coaches check in on the students pretty often to make sure that they were going to class. I would be suprised if Roy isn't doing the same thing.

It is my understanding that Ty stopped going to class for a few weeks back in February but that Roy nipped that problem in the bud before it got out of hand.

You may recall that Ty went from starting to coming off the bench for a few games late in the season. That was because of the attendance problem.

-Jason "I am now hearing that Ty is leaning toward coming back, but it is not 100% yet" Evans

[dcarp23]

Jumbo-

I know you had some input early on as to how the Carolina guys were leaning. Have you heard anything lately?

[kramerbr]

ESPN has reported (scolling on the bottom) that Wayne Ellington will return next year. Was he actually seriously considering going to the NBA? All of the talk was about Wright, Hansbrough, and Lawson. I hadn't heard rumors of him even contemplating it.

[Troublemaker]

Hansbrough and Lawson have announced (at UNC's banquet) that they will be back.

Sigh.

Hopefully they don't get to keep Wright as well.

[Troublemaker]

The unfortunate part of Lawson's announcement is that there's a decent chance he stays three now. There are A LOT of good PGs that will be in the 2008 draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/mymock.php?page=official&year=2008 (at least that site projects him as going in the top 10)

[Jumbo]

Jumbo-

I know you had some input early on as to how the Carolina guys were leaning. Have you heard anything lately?


The last time I asked anyone about it was before the NCAA Tourney. I can check up on things if you want, although it appears there are answers on everyone except Wright, at this point.

[BCGroup]

An AP story (you may have to register, sorry)
http://charlotte.com/209/story/80824.html

[arydolphin]

Here's an ESPN link for those that don't want to register:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2832699

I think that this makes UNC easily a preseason top-3 team, even if Wright goes pro.

[Boston Dukie]

I think Lawson should definitley leave given the lack of PGs in the draft this year. Besides Mike Conley (is he staying or going?), there is no other PG who would have a chance to go ahead of Lawson

All year I thought Wright was the most talented player on UNC, but the more I watched Lawson, the more I saw a guy with top 5 all time quickness with the ball and breakdown of the dribble ability. Right up there with Allen Iverson.

Watching Paulus try to gaurd him at the end of the first UNC game was scary!

If Hansborough and Lawson have both said they are staying, then that must mean Wright is leaving? Why else wouldn't he also have announced at the Banquet?

[NYC Duke Fan]

If Roy can convince Wright to return, then UNC will be the favorites to win it all and will be the pre-season # 1. Even if Wright decides to jump, UNC will still be a very formidable team and the best team in the ACC pre-season.

Lawson, with a year under his belt could be the best, or at least one of the top 3 point guards in the country.

[kydevil]

Def. figured Hans and Ellington would come back... figured Lawson would be wise and jump... Next year he will have to compete with O.J, Rose, and CO in the Draft.

[Chicago 1995]

This will silence the claims that Roy and UNC only want what's best for their players in assisting them in early entry decisions.

There's a really strong argument that this is the second year running that Roy should have advised Tyler to go, and Lawson's likely a top 15 pick returning.

Sounds an awful lot like what the folks in light blue complain about K doing.

[Duvall]

This will silence the claims that Roy and UNC only want what's best for their players in assisting them in early entry decisions.

There's a really strong argument that this is the second year running that Roy should have advised Tyler to go, and Lawson's likely a top 15 pick returning.

Sounds an awful lot like what the folks in light blue complain about K doing.

Just like Heel fans are silenced when they see Roy berating officials during the game or crying after a difficult loss, right?

[VaDukie]

Roy didn't do anything wrong here. Lawson could be a high draft pick but could definitley use another year of seasoning. Tyler's draft stock won't ever really change, he likes college, so why wouldn't he come back to try and win a title?

[greybeard]

Lawson's return makes Carolina more awesome but, imo, also more vulnerable. Roy will be inclined to play run-out ball at all costs, which often costs his teams in the end.

The real challenge for Lawson is can he learn to let others handle and initiate, and play off the ball rolls. The better question is whether Roy will let him. I believe that Lawson's speed and abilities are at once his best assets and also the biggest obstacles to the completeness of his game.

If I'm Hans, I am not celebrating this decision, at least not deep down inside. Hans functions best with the ball moving, and could use to develop and show what he can do when more of the offense runs through him. Unless Lawson and Roy changes, I see neither happening. Good news for blue devil (how's that Mr. H?) fans, imo.

[Chicago 1995]

Roy didn't do anything wrong here. Lawson could be a high draft pick but could definitley use another year of seasoning. Tyler's draft stock won't ever really change, he likes college, so why wouldn't he come back to try and win a title?

Lawson's got a chance to be the first PG picked if he comes out this year, since it looks like Conley's staying.

Next year? He'll be third behind Conley and Mayo.

As for Tyler, why should he go? He's very old for his class. He'll be 22 before next season starts. 22. His draft stock isn't going to go up, but it can go down, and he's cost himself two years of earnings by sticking around.

It's not a cut and dried decision, and it's no more *wrong* for these guys to come back than it was for Josh to come back after last season. But since the Tarheels' have told us how wrong it was for Josh or for JWill before him to come back, it's just as wrong for these guys.

[Troublemaker]

Lawson's got a chance to be the first PG picked if he comes out this year, since it looks like Conley's staying.

Next year? He'll be third behind Conley and Mayo.

As for Tyler, why should he go? He's very old for his class. He'll be 22 before next season starts. 22. His draft stock isn't going to go up, but it can go down, and he's cost himself two years of earnings by sticking around.

It's not a cut and dried decision, and it's no more *wrong* for these guys to come back than it was for Josh to come back after last season. But since the Tarheels' have told us how wrong it was for Josh or for JWill before him to come back, it's just as wrong for these guys.

He would probably go behind Rose (All-Star talent) and Collison (much better defender) as well. 2008 is just loaded for PGs.

[Troublemaker]

Lawson's return makes Carolina more awesome but, imo, also more vulnerable. Roy will be inclined to play run-out ball at all costs, which often costs his teams in the end.

The real challenge for Lawson is can he learn to let others handle and initiate, and play off the ball rolls. The better question is whether Roy will let him. I believe that Lawson's speed and abilities are at once his best assets and also the biggest obstacles to the completeness of his game.

If I'm Hans, I am not celebrating this decision, at least not deep down inside. Hans functions best with the ball moving, and could use to develop and show what he can do when more of the offense runs through him. Unless Lawson and Roy changes, I see neither happening. Good news for blue devil (how's that Mr. H?) fans, imo.

I'm pretty sure Hansbrough is okay with having a great PG around to feed him the ball and a great chance at a national championship next year.

[dukemsu]

Boy, I was really hoping Ty would go. He's a matchup nightmare. Carolina is now assured the preseason #1 ranking. Which is fine. Let them wear the bullseye for awhile.

By the way, I wouldn't assume Conley stays at OSU. There's buzz saying he may indeed be gone as well. That would make things easier on Lawson for the draft next year.

dukemsu

[Wander]

Carolina is now assured the preseason #1 ranking.

No, they aren't. You could make an argument for any of five teams right now - UNC, Ohio State, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas.

[Lavabe]

No, they aren't. You could make an argument for any of five teams right now - UNC, Ohio State, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas.

Just remember that UCLA loses Afflalo to the NBA, and Kansas loses Wright.
Cheers,
Lavabe

[Troublemaker]

Just remember that UCLA loses Afflalo to the NBA, and Kansas loses Wright.
Cheers,
Lavabe

Yep. Realistically, we're an Oden announcement away from UNC being preseason #1. That doesn't mean those other teams that have been mentioned aren't close to or couldn't beat UNC (especially UCLA and Memphis) but I'd give UNC the edge over any of them in terms of talent. And if UNC somehow manages to keep Brandan Wright, they shouldn't lose any more than 2 games next season on the way to an NC.

[Rip]

I hope they all stay.

I hope they're ranked #1.



Because I know they'll choke again.

[devildownunder]

Hansbrough and Lawson have announced (at UNC's banquet) that they will be back.

Sigh.

Hopefully they don't get to keep Wright as well.

Of those three, wright was the only sure lottery pick, IMO, so I think the other two probably made a good decision for themselves. Hansbrough's stock will remain steady unless he suffers an injury and Lawson's should go up as he improves. Even if it doesn't, he'll be better prepared for the league, which will be important for his career earning potential of a player as raw as he currently is.

[Patrick Yates]

He would probably go behind Rose (All-Star talent) and Collison (much better defender) as well. 2008 is just loaded for PGs.

Do not forget Crittendon at Ga Tech. Gordon will also be making the switch from pure SG to a D-Wade type lead guard. I think Collison is iffy to go ahead of Lawson, but they are competitive, and with another year he could concievably surpass TL (unlikely imho).

Also, Mayo can call himself a PG but if it walks like a Gunner SG, Talks like a Gunner SG, and Guns with no rational thought or conscious like a gunner SG...well, you guys get it.

But, Mayo has said he plans to work on his PG abilities. But, like Hans, Mayo is old for his class, so his ceiling is low.

Conley will go this year. His stock is sky high. He is a top 7 lock this year, and probably the top guard (Durant is a WF). Next year, there are a few guards ahead of Conley.

But, if Conley stays, Conley, Crittendon, Rose, Mayo, and Gordon are all ahead of TL, with Collison capable of surpassing him. Great Decision Tree there TL.

[Caveat] I have said it before, and I will say it again. Until the deadline passes, do not beleive a word of it. The Banquet is an emotional time for a player in college. Leading up to it, every day, all day, the student body is showing him love, begging him to stay. The staff is in his ear telling him he needs to improve so that he will be better prepared to play in the league. The staff keeps unsavory influences the heck away from him. Everyone on campus is talking about next year. Plus, the sting of a hugely dissappointing season still resonates. At the banquet, everyone is dressed up, great food is served, and the waiters are probably doling out some fine wine without checking the IDs too close (no one gets drunk or anything, but after a fine Bordeux washing down a great steak, a man will agree to anything). Every one is feeling nostalgic. It is a great time to make an announcement that will make you the hero of the campus.

Gues what comes next? Studying your butt off for final exams (funsies), packing up your tiny dorm room, and heading home. Suddenly, that nostalga is a long way away. Your buddy Wright is on the phone talking about getting wined and dined by agents, sponsors, and teams. Various "insiders" and "family advisors" are telling you that you are ready now. You still have time to declare. You say you are just exploring your options without signing with an agent to see what you need to work on (duh, shooting and D). Next thing you know you are late lottery and out the door.

Moral of the story? This statement means nothing. Many similiar statements, made at banquets, have ultimately come to nothing. Do you think that no one close to TL is aware of the logjam at PG next year? They simply have not had time to bend his ear. Wait till the semester ends and he heads home. That is when the announcement will come, when he is safely away from UNC.

Patrick Yates

ps. If TL stays, what does Frasor do? Larry Drew is a TL clone who plays Roy Ball, and seems like a lock for UNC. BF might never get off the bench, cause UNC is probably bringing in a shooting guard to take over for Ellington, who is no lock to leave next year.

If you are BF, and TL stays, you have to transfer. A big-10 team would welcome you with open arms, because you are the ideal PG in that league. I do not mean a bottom feeder (northwestern, no offense) either. Michigan, MSU, Illinois, maybe even Indiana would welcome you with open arms. You take a year off, get totally healthy, learn the system and hone some skills, and start your last two years for a quality team.

UNC may not lose TL (I'll belive it when I see it), but they will get thinner at PG. Frasor has go to see the writing on the wall if TL stays around. Reduced PT next year, with more of the same to come the 2 years after that. BF is not a superstar, but he is too good to wait around to ride pine for 2 years.

If it is not pro defections, UNC will lose players via transfer. I think many of the rising Juniors only stayed this year with the understanding that Roy's top 3 frosh were one and done, and that UNC would make a serious NC run this year. No way Roy keeps these egos in check for another year. There will be attrition in the backcourt, and a post transfer would not shock me, but is highly unlikely. There is a logjam at WG, SG, and PG, with the threat of another group of top recruits coming in 2 years from now.

UNC is getting ready to have the offseason from H-E-Double Hockey Sticks.

They're Due.

[CDu]

Do not forget Crittendon at Ga Tech. Gordon will also be making the switch from pure SG to a D-Wade type lead guard. I think Collison is iffy to go ahead of Lawson, but they are competitive, and with another year he could concievably surpass TL (unlikely imho).

Also, Mayo can call himself a PG but if it walks like a Gunner SG, Talks like a Gunner SG, and Guns with no rational thought or conscious like a gunner SG...well, you guys get it.

But, Mayo has said he plans to work on his PG abilities. But, like Hans, Mayo is old for his class, so his ceiling is low.

Conley will go this year. His stock is sky high. He is a top 7 lock this year, and probably the top guard (Durant is a WF). Next year, there are a few guards ahead of Conley.

But, if Conley stays, Conley, Crittendon, Rose, Mayo, and Gordon are all ahead of TL, with Collison capable of surpassing him. Great Decision Tree there TL.

[Caveat] I have said it before, and I will say it again. Until the deadline passes, do not beleive a word of it. The Banquet is an emotional time for a player in college. Leading up to it, every day, all day, the student body is showing him love, begging him to stay. The staff is in his ear telling him he needs to improve so that he will be better prepared to play in the league. The staff keeps unsavory influences the heck away from him. Everyone on campus is talking about next year. Plus, the sting of a hugely dissappointing season still resonates. At the banquet, everyone is dressed up, great food is served, and the waiters are probably doling out some fine wine without checking the IDs too close (no one gets drunk or anything, but after a fine Bordeux washing down a great steak, a man will agree to anything). Every one is feeling nostalgic. It is a great time to make an announcement that will make you the hero of the campus.

Gues what comes next? Studying your butt off for final exams (funsies), packing up your tiny dorm room, and heading home. Suddenly, that nostalga is a long way away. Your buddy Wright is on the phone talking about getting wined and dined by agents, sponsors, and teams. Various "insiders" and "family advisors" are telling you that you are ready now. You still have time to declare. You say you are just exploring your options without signing with an agent to see what you need to work on (duh, shooting and D). Next thing you know you are late lottery and out the door.

Moral of the story? This statement means nothing. Many similiar statements, made at banquets, have ultimately come to nothing. Do you think that no one close to TL is aware of the logjam at PG next year? They simply have not had time to bend his ear. Wait till the semester ends and he heads home. That is when the announcement will come, when he is safely away from UNC.

Patrick Yates

ps. If TL stays, what does Frasor do? Larry Drew is a TL clone who plays Roy Ball, and seems like a lock for UNC. BF might never get off the bench, cause UNC is probably bringing in a shooting guard to take over for Ellington, who is no lock to leave next year.

If you are BF, and TL stays, you have to transfer. A big-10 team would welcome you with open arms, because you are the ideal PG in that league. I do not mean a bottom feeder (northwestern, no offense) either. Michigan, MSU, Illinois, maybe even Indiana would welcome you with open arms. You take a year off, get totally healthy, learn the system and hone some skills, and start your last two years for a quality team.

UNC may not lose TL (I'll belive it when I see it), but they will get thinner at PG. Frasor has go to see the writing on the wall if TL stays around. Reduced PT next year, with more of the same to come the 2 years after that. BF is not a superstar, but he is too good to wait around to ride pine for 2 years.

If it is not pro defections, UNC will lose players via transfer. I think many of the rising Juniors only stayed this year with the understanding that Roy's top 3 frosh were one and done, and that UNC would make a serious NC run this year. No way Roy keeps these egos in check for another year. There will be attrition in the backcourt, and a post transfer would not shock me, but is highly unlikely. There is a logjam at WG, SG, and PG, with the threat of another group of top recruits coming in 2 years from now.

UNC is getting ready to have the offseason from H-E-Double Hockey Sticks.

They're Due.

I think you're reaching to guarantee that Frasor will transfer if Lawson stays. He MAY transfer, and he may just really like UNC and Roy. We'll see. I hope he leaves.

Also, I think UNC is roughly 2 years removed from a mass defection to the NBA, so saying "they're due" is probably not accurate. I'd enjoy seeing them lose players to the NBA (I always like to see UNC lose players), but they've had a more recent hit in terms of early-entry than we have.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Gues what comes next? Studying your butt off for final exams (funsies), packing up your tiny dorm room, and heading home. Suddenly, that nostalga is a long way away. Your buddy Wright is on the phone talking about getting wined and dined by agents, sponsors, and teams. Various "insiders" and "family advisors" are telling you that you are ready now. You still have time to declare. You say you are just exploring your options without signing with an agent to see what you need to work on (duh, shooting and D). Next thing you know you are late lottery and out the door.


Just one note: the deadline to declare for the draft this year in April 29, I believe. That's before exams begin at UNC this year (April 30).

[Troublemaker]

I hope they all stay.

I hope they're ranked #1.



Because I know they'll choke again.

Like in 2005?

[Patrick Yates]

I think you're reaching to guarantee that Frasor will transfer if Lawson stays. He MAY transfer, and he may just really like UNC and Roy. We'll see. I hope he leaves.

Also, I think UNC is roughly 2 years removed from a mass defection to the NBA, so saying "they're due" is probably not accurate. I'd enjoy seeing them lose players to the NBA (I always like to see UNC lose players), but they've had a more recent hit in terms of early-entry than we have.

I did not mean NBA defections, but attrition. I beleive they will suffer attrition this offseason in the form of transfers due to competition for playing time.

I do not think that BF will stick around to share the PG with TL. Because with an off season under his belt, BF will be looking at Sloppy Seconds with 10-15 minutes of PT next year, at best. Does anyone beleive that Roy plays TL less than 25 MPG next year? And I do not seriously think that TL and BF will share minutes unless there is an injury or foul trouble. They may share, but it will under 5 MPG barring fouls/injury. Why would BF stay? For love of UNC and Roy? BF is a talented kid. With PT and exposure, he could play his way into the L as a spot shooter/backup PG. At the very least he could find his way to Europe and make decent money. As a little used backup behind TL and Drew, which is likely given Roy's penchant for up-tempo ball, he will disappear and not even Europe will be an option. Why does he stay for that? What would be his rational motivation for riding the pine when he has legitimate options elsewhere? Heck, he would be the starting PG at many other schools in the ACC next year, or at least a major contributor as a Combo Guard. He is at one of the 3 schools (Duke and UMD being the others) where there are too many quality players at his position for him to excell. Unless one of the other wings transfers, freeing up time at SG, BF would be a complete retard to stay behind TL.

"They are Due" refers to my belief that UNC is due for a bad off season/run of bad luck a-la Duke this past year. No lie they are not losing many to the pros this year.

On a related note, Andy Katz's blog is reporting that Conley's Dad says Conley will have to consider the pros, and that the dad is now a registered agent with the NBA. What a coinky dink.

This will scupper the notion that TL should definitely go this year, and it eases the logjam next year. Also, I have a strange/sad feeling that Crittendon will declare, further easing next year's logjam. Even if TC does not declare, this year is loaded with quality Bigs and Forwards, which the pros place greater value on. Next year is guard heavy but big man light. TL's draft position may slide only a little, and enable him to land at a program with a higher chance of winning. Also, if everyone stays (not bloody likely) he will be the lead PG on a (the only) truly dominant team next year.

Patrick Yates

[Patrick Yates]

Like in 2005?

Trouble, you make a valid point regarding 2005.

However, I would like to raise a counter point.

Ol'Roy has never won a national championship with players that he recruited. Yes, the frosh stud was a roy recruit, but the bulk of the stars/contributors from the 05 NC were recruited by Dougherty.

At KS, his one NC came with Brown's recruits. In fact, teams with Roy's recruits DO have a habit of underachieving. Merely a point to consier. UNC's kids are now all Roy, and only Roy. Within 2 years we will see the howls of underachieving ring forth from the UNC faithful. It will be glorious. [Unless they win it all next year in which case I am moving out of the state.]

Patrick Yates

[Troublemaker]

Like you, I'm also hoping for some UNC transfers. Frasor, Green, and Stepheson are who I'm eyeballing. None are likely to go, imo, but there's a chance.

[Troublemaker]

Trouble, you make a valid point regarding 2005.

However, I would like to raise a counter point.

Ol'Roy has never won a national championship with players that he recruited. Yes, the frosh stud was a roy recruit, but the bulk of the stars/contributors from the 05 NC were recruited by Dougherty.

At KS, his one NC came with Brown's recruits. In fact, teams with Roy's recruits DO have a habit of underachieving. Merely a point to consier. UNC's kids are now all Roy, and only Roy. Within 2 years we will see the howls of underachieving ring forth from the UNC faithful. It will be glorious. [Unless they win it all next year in which case I am moving out of the state.]

Patrick Yates

Good point. Unfortunately, though, Roy is currently in his honeymoon period due to the 2005 NC and is unlikely to feel the pressure for at least a few more years. If he takes advantage of this situation to win a 2nd NC, validating the first one, then he may never feel the pressure again and may end up turning the UNC program into a dominant juggernaut that plays daddy to every other program in the country. UNC's recruiting pull is that dangerous right now. We need more seasons to elapse without a second NC for him so that the whispers of "can't win with his own players" can get louder and louder so that calm and cool Roy can become pre-2005 pressure cooker Roy again. If, OTOH, he wins a 2nd NC during this pressureless honeymoon period, then the pressure probably goes away forever and we're talking about Wooden II. Or K 86-94 II.

[CDu]

Why would BF stay?

There are many reasons why a player might stay:

1) Chance at a nat'l championship
2) Likes his teammates
3) Likes his coach
4) Likes the school/area
5) Thinks he'll get plenty of PT anyway
6) Doesn't want to sit out a year just to get a bit more PT somewhere else later

Frasor isn't going to start ahead of Lawson. But why do you think Roy wouldn't play Frasor and Lawson together? Frasor is a solid shooter, and 6'3". There's no reason he couldn't play off-guard when Lawson is in. For reference, take a look at Kansas' last teams with Roy: Hinrich and Boschee played together, and then Hinrich and Aaron Miles played together. I'd be willing to bet that Frasor gets PLENTY of time in the backcourt with Lawson next year, including plenty of 3-guard sets with Ellington.

And on top of that, Frasor would have the chance at a national championship. For a kid who probably won't be going to the NBA anyway, I imagine this is a pretty big draw. And when Lawson leaves, Frasor would be the senior captain and likely 25+ minutes per game as a combo guard.

There actually seems to be a really strong case for Frasor staying.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Obviously I'm biased in this regard, but I think the whole argument about "winning with your his players" is a bit disingenous. Whether he recruited the players or not, Roy did win a NC. The rap on him had never been on his recruiting, but that he choked in preparation/coaching in the big games. No matter with whom he won the ring, that particular criticism is no longer valid.

In addtion, don't think that Roy had nothing to do with the championship in 2005; even if all the players had stayed (which almost certainly would not have happened), there is no way that same group would have won the tournament if Doherty was still the coach. The change Roy instilled in the team and the players over their two years together was the crux of that championship run.

And yes, Roy didn't win one at Kansas with some excellent teams (though he most assuredly would have if his team didn't go 12-30 from the FT line against Syracuse in 2003). But, as much as Kansas fans might want to deny it, there's a big difference between Kansas and UNC when it comes to recruiting. The great teams Roy had at Kansas were just that, great teams. Sure he had the occasional star in Gooden or Pierce, etc. but for the most part he had groups of good players, not great players.

The types of players Roy can get at UNC are, rankings wise at least, heads above the normal recruits at Kansas. Of course, that comes with the whole separate issue of players leaving early (which we've already seen). Even so, I would honestly be surprised if, assuming Roy is here for the rest of his coaching career, we don't win at least 1 more championship in that time.

[dcarp23]

Ralph-Wiggum: What are your thoughts on Wright coming back and the possibilities of transfers being bandied about? I really enjoy hearing your perspective, as a rational member of the dark side.

[vmurray]

"They are Due" refers to my belief that UNC is due for a bad off season/run of bad luck a-la Duke this past year. No lie they are not losing many to the pros this year.
Patrick Yates


How quickly we forget. No one has ever lost more than we did in 2005. Most knowledgeable fans spent the entire off season either wailing or sighing in resignation about how bad the upcoming season would be. Well we weathered that storm pretty well with about half the Mickey D's that you had last year. Everthing I hear coming out of Chapel Hill is that this group of Freshmen and Sophomores are great friends and hang out together a lot. I'm not sure I would be holding my breath for any major announcements of a transfer. Could happen but I doubt it. They seem to enjoy each other and being college basketball players. We had our bad season for this decade already(lol).
VMurray

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Ralph-Wiggum: What are your thoughts on Wright coming back and the possibilities of transfers being bandied about? I really enjoy hearing your perspective, as a rational member of the dark side.

I would be shocked if Wright didn't go pro. Personally, and this only my opinion, I think he wants to stay at least for another year but the lure of money is too great. I think he's in a similar situation that Marvin Williams was in after the 2005 season. Of course, if there's a difference, it's that most of Marvin's teammates were leaving also. Still, as I said, I think he's almost definitely gone.

I haven't heard much concerning possible transfers. Based on potential playing time, I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised if either Frasor or QT wanted to go some place where they could get more PT. However, from what I understand, Frasor and Hansbrough are close friends and I believe that, with the possible exception of playing time, Frasor enjoys being at UNC. This is all complete speculation on my part, though (well, except for the Frasor/Hansbrough friendship).

As for QT, if he was really planning on transfering I think he would have done so after the 2006 season (when Frasor was the starting PG and Lawson was coming in).

As for someone like Stephenson, I don't believe he'll transfer. I doubt he came to UNC with the expectation of playing in large blocks of minutes right away. And considering that Wright is probably gone and Hansbrough may very well leave after next season, he could reasonably expect to get more PT in the future.

Luckily, with the exception of the Doherty years, we've never been hurt too badly by transfers at UNC. The most notable exceptions I can recall is Cliff Rozier and Larry Davis (was that his name? I believe he went on to play, and play well, at either South Carolina or College of Charleston). And I have it on pretty good authority that Rozier transfered due to academic reasons (i.e. he thought that he shouldn't have to go to class and that others could take his tests for him).

But one never really knows; it's always possible that one or two players will transfer, but it's not something I'm really worried about at the moment.

[Patrick Yates]

How quickly we forget. No one has ever lost more than we did in 2005. Most knowledgeable fans spent the entire off season either wailing or sighing in resignation about how bad the upcoming season would be. Well we weathered that storm pretty well with about half the Mickey D's that you had last year. Everthing I hear coming out of Chapel Hill is that this group of Freshmen and Sophomores are great friends and hang out together a lot. I'm not sure I would be holding my breath for any major announcements of a transfer. Could happen but I doubt it. They seem to enjoy each other and being college basketball players. We had our bad season for this decade already(lol).
VMurray

No offense, but you are supposed to lose a lot after a NC. A "bad offseason" after a NC is expected. It is dulled and softend by the previous year's high. Also, the "bad year" did not come to pass. You were still competitive, and outside of Marvin Willams there were no unexpected personnell loses. In fact, due to Hans being better than expected, UNC had a better year following the NC than many people expected.

I think UNC is due for a series of Nightmarish off-court issues (begining with Mr. Dorrance's sexual harrasment case which will be going to trial soon) with an unexpected on-court decline due to defections/players not being as good as they were supposed to be.

Actually, UNC's end of the year is eerily similiar to Duke's in 06.

Unexpected early departure from the NCAAs? Check

Decimation by graduation/defection to pros/transfer? (coming soon to a beutiful campus in Central NC, last peice of the puzzle)

Off court/Non Related Sexual Misconduct Charges that Appear to be completely trumped up? Check.

Women's team flaming out after having a big Lead in the final four? Check

I feel (hope like heck) that UNC has the kind of nightmarish year that Duke had. It is only fair. Besides, the two schools seem to experience things similiar to each other, kind of like when women live in confined spaces and get on the same menstrual cycle.

Patrick Yates

[vmurray]

No offense, but you are supposed to lose a lot after a NC. A "bad offseason" after a NC is expected. It is dulled and softend by the previous year's high. Also, the "bad year" did not come to pass. You were still competitive, and outside of Marvin Willams there were no unexpected personnell loses. In fact, due to Hans being better than expected, UNC had a better year following the NC than many people expected.

I think UNC is due for a series of Nightmarish off-court issues (begining with Mr. Dorrance's sexual harrasment case which will be going to trial soon) with an unexpected on-court decline due to defections/players not being as good as they were supposed to be.

Actually, UNC's end of the year is eerily similiar to Duke's in 06.

Unexpected early departure from the NCAAs? Check

Decimation by graduation/defection to pros/transfer? (coming soon to a beutiful campus in Central NC, last peice of the puzzle)

Off court/Non Related Sexual Misconduct Charges that Appear to be completely trumped up? Check.

Women's team flaming out after having a big Lead in the final four? Check

I feel (hope like heck) that UNC has the kind of nightmarish year that Duke had. It is only fair. Besides, the two schools seem to experience things similiar to each other, kind of like when women live in confined spaces and get on the same menstrual cycle.

Patrick Yates
Unexpected early departure from the NCAAs? Check

Hmm. A team starting three freshmen wins the ACC and makes the Elite Eight. If your young team had accomplished this would you have considered it an early exit? Expectations have a way of skewing reality.

Transfers/defections.

Not impossible but unlikely.

They looked like they were having a great time most of the year. In fact they looked suspiciously like college kids, playing ball and having fun. I had almost forgotten what that looked like. IMHO this is what your team forgot, that it is fun to play basketball.

You may be laughing at me very loudly in a few weeks but I think you are grasping at straws here.
VMurray

[Rip]

Like in 2005?

If it was the same team, that would be a good question.

[Patrick Yates]

There are many reasons why a player might stay:

1) Chance at a nat'l championship
2) Likes his teammates
3) Likes his coach
4) Likes the school/area
5) Thinks he'll get plenty of PT anyway
6) Doesn't want to sit out a year just to get a bit more PT somewhere else later

Frasor isn't going to start ahead of Lawson. But why do you think Roy wouldn't play Frasor and Lawson together? Frasor is a solid shooter, and 6'3". There's no reason he couldn't play off-guard when Lawson is in. For reference, take a look at Kansas' last teams with Roy: Hinrich and Boschee played together, and then Hinrich and Aaron Miles played together. I'd be willing to bet that Frasor gets PLENTY of time in the backcourt with Lawson next year, including plenty of 3-guard sets with Ellington.

And on top of that, Frasor would have the chance at a national championship. For a kid who probably won't be going to the NBA anyway, I imagine this is a pretty big draw. And when Lawson leaves, Frasor would be the senior captain and likely 25+ minutes per game as a combo guard.

There actually seems to be a really strong case for Frasor staying.

I do not think BF is the guy in a three guard lineup. I think it much more likely that Green or Ginyard is in the game than BF.

Next year at UNC, Two bigs will be on the floor, be it TH, Thompson, Stephenson. Some two of these will be on the court. In the case of a defection by TH, or a transfer by one of the other two, that kid who got redshirted last year would be the third big.

TL is the PG (if he stays, still don't believe him).

The wing minutes are split between Ellington, Ginyard, and Green. All three have superiour size and defensive ability compared to BF. Which of the three does Roy sit to make PT available for BF? All three want to play SG, with Green and Ginyard capable of spending time at the SF. If I am Roy, I rotate those three as the primary wings.

Given Roy's penchant for running, a three guard allignment featureing BF, who is a defensive liability at either guard spot, and pretty easily guarded by a moderatley athletic SG, is unlikely. Heinrich is a very good athlete. BF is nowhere near Henrich either as a shooter or an athlete even at the same point in thier careers.

Roy would use BF as a backup to spell TL, so that TL could really run when he is out there. Roy will probably ggive TL 27-30 min per game, and I figure BF would steal a few minutes from other guys for rest periods/foul trouble. That still puts a former McD's AA at under 20 min a game, with much of that being spent as the 4 or 5 option on offense.

He may want to win an NC, play at UNC, etc.

If he doesn't care about a future as a player, stay at UNC. But there are minutes available at other big time schools, and I do not see BF waiting around to see who Roy recruits over him again.

Patrick Yates

[Ralph-Wiggum]

But let's say that Lawson leaves after the 2007/08 season and Frasor stays. Even if Roy recruits a top rated PG for the 08/09 year, I would expect Frasor to start and get a lot of playing time. There's a big difference in Roy startinga Freshman over a Sophmore (like Lawson over Frasor this year or Frasor over QT last year) and Roy starting a Freshman over a Senior (possible scenario in 08/09).

And don't forget injuries played a role in why Frasor had limited minutes much of this year. He and Lawson played comparable minutes until the Kentucky game (which is the game where I believe he got injured). Assuming that Roy stick with his plan of playing a fast pased game next year - and I have no reason to suspect he'll change - Lawson will probably average anywhere between 20 - 30 minutes a game. I have to believe that Frasor will get most of the minutes as the backup over QT. It's not like he's going to be Dewey Burke next year.

[CDu]

I do not think BF is the guy in a three guard lineup. I think it much more likely that Green or Ginyard is in the game than BF.

Next year at UNC, Two bigs will be on the floor, be it TH, Thompson, Stephenson. Some two of these will be on the court. In the case of a defection by TH, or a transfer by one of the other two, that kid who got redshirted last year would be the third big.

TL is the PG (if he stays, still don't believe him).

The wing minutes are split between Ellington, Ginyard, and Green. All three have superiour size and defensive ability compared to BF. Which of the three does Roy sit to make PT available for BF? All three want to play SG, with Green and Ginyard capable of spending time at the SF. If I am Roy, I rotate those three as the primary wings.

Given Roy's penchant for running, a three guard allignment featureing BF, who is a defensive liability at either guard spot, and pretty easily guarded by a moderatley athletic SG, is unlikely. Heinrich is a very good athlete. BF is nowhere near Henrich either as a shooter or an athlete even at the same point in thier careers.

Roy would use BF as a backup to spell TL, so that TL could really run when he is out there. Roy will probably ggive TL 27-30 min per game, and I figure BF would steal a few minutes from other guys for rest periods/foul trouble. That still puts a former McD's AA at under 20 min a game, with much of that being spent as the 4 or 5 option on offense.

He may want to win an NC, play at UNC, etc.

If he doesn't care about a future as a player, stay at UNC. But there are minutes available at other big time schools, and I do not see BF waiting around to see who Roy recruits over him again.

Patrick Yates

I hate being in the position of defending a Tarheel, but here goes...

Let's do some math: Say that Lawson and Ellington average 55 minutes. That leaves 25 minutes per game to other guards. Neither Ginyard nor Green can handle the ball, Ginyard can't shoot, and Green doesn't play guard. That means Frasor and Thomas split, at minimum, 25 minutes. I'd say Thomas gets 5-7, and Frasor gets 18-20. And that ignores any times that Roy plays Lawson/Frasor/Ellington together, which I suspect will happen. But for the sake of discussion, let's say Frasor gets only those 18-20 minutes. That kind of PT on a national championship contender sounds better than 25-27 minutes on a lesser team, don't you think. And that ignores any benefit associated with hanging out with his friends on the team.

On a side note, I think you've misread the Ginyard and Green situation. I see those two competing for minutes between each other (not Frasor), with Green getting some minutes at power forward in small lineups (especially if Wright leaves). Those two players are high-skilled defenders/athletes with limited offensive ability (Ginyard moreso than Green), and I think Ole' Roy will want better offense on the floor. I'd be shocked if those two combined for more than 40-45 minutes per game, which leaves all those minutes I suggested at guard, and potentially then some (if Green steals minutes at PF like I expect).

As for the following year, I guarantee you Frasor would get plenty of minutes. He'd be a senior with loads of experience, and any competition he'd have at PG would be from a freshman. Roy will start the senior over the freshman at point guard, or at least go with two point guards on the floor (like he did at Kansas).

Finally, and this is just a pet peeve of mine as a Bulls fan: it's Hinrich. Not Heinrich. Not Henrich. Hinrich.

[Patrick Yates]

I hate being in the position of defending a Tarheel, but here goes...

Let's do some math: Say that Lawson and Ellington average 55 minutes. That leaves 25 minutes per game to other guards. Neither Ginyard nor Green can handle the ball, Ginyard can't shoot, and Green doesn't play guard. That means Frasor and Thomas split, at minimum, 25 minutes. I'd say Thomas gets 5-7, and Frasor gets 18-20. And that ignores any times that Roy plays Lawson/Frasor/Ellington together, which I suspect will happen. But for the sake of discussion, let's say Frasor gets only those 18-20 minutes. That kind of PT on a national championship contender sounds better than 25-27 minutes on a lesser team, don't you think. And that ignores any benefit associated with hanging out with his friends on the team.

On a side note, I think you've misread the Ginyard and Green situation. I see those two competing for minutes between each other (not Frasor), with Green getting some minutes at power forward in small lineups (especially if Wright leaves). Those two players are high-skilled defenders/athletes with limited offensive ability (Ginyard moreso than Green), and I think Ole' Roy will want better offense on the floor. I'd be shocked if those two combined for more than 40-45 minutes per game, which leaves all those minutes I suggested at guard, and potentially then some (if Green steals minutes at PF like I expect).

As for the following year, I guarantee you Frasor would get plenty of minutes. He'd be a senior with loads of experience, and any competition he'd have at PG would be from a freshman. Roy will start the senior over the freshman at point guard, or at least go with two point guards on the floor (like he did at Kansas).

Finally, and this is just a pet peeve of mine as a Bulls fan: it's Hinrich. Not Heinrich. Not Henrich. Hinrich.


What makes you think that Ginyard will ever play PF on a team with Hans, Stephenson, and Thompson on it, plus that 6'6 230 lb kid that redshirted this year? Only catastrophic injury or foul trouble would see Roy go that route. He has 3 quality bigs to rotate between 2 positions, with Hans and Thompson being ready for 25-30 mpg each. He will need to play stephenson the rest to develop him for the year after when Hans is almost certain to be gone.

I see Green and Ginyard as being mostly 3's with the capability of playing 2. Indeed, they will have to work on their perimeter skills if they want to play pro ball, and each has the potential to do that. WE is already a prototypical SG in college, and I do not see him playing a lot of 3 with the other two on the team. I see Roy as splitting the bulk of the wing (SG and SF) between these three players.

We will have to agree to disagree on the three guard alignment featuring BF, WE, and TL. That lineup would make opposing coaches salivate. BF is easy to guard, so he gets the least athletic defender on the court (Paulus). WE could be shut down by a dedicated defender who is a good, if not great athlete, or at least slow him down. This lets you put your best perimeter defender on Lawson. This is not ideal, and the kids are good enough on offense to do some damage, possibly serious damage if they are on...

But who do they guard. Seriously, that trio could not (actually they could, except for BF, a more apt statement is that the other two WILL NOT) guard a bunch of girls. I am not talking about girls on the WBB team, I mean three random chicks out of the stands. While they would score on O, this trio is a defensive nightmare for Roy. Duke's guards would light that up.

TL's height dictates that he guard the opposing point, regardless of skill or athleticism, or risk being backed down. He let GP arround him some, mainly because it is obvious he does not like to play D.

Your lineup necessitates that WE guard the small forward, who could easily post up the 6-4 WE, or possibly drive arround or shoot over the unimpressively athletic WE. Against us this could mean anyone from TK (shoots over), DM (goes around), GH and MP (Shoot over and go arround). He matches up OK with JS of course.

Who does BF guard? His guy could get 10-15 straight before he comes out.

This is not a rant on UNC's guards. These three would not play together because as a group they highlight each other's weaknesses, rather than matching strength with weakness like a lineup of TL, WE, and one of the G's.

By letting WE play a shorter player, he can play better D, and is able to exploit the opposition on O.

Your lineup is great for Duke, and MD, GT and a few others, but not so much for UNC, which is why I think Roy doesn't run it.

Now, if Green (sounds like he misses home) or Ginyard (unlikely) were to transfer out, then yes, minutes for BF would be available.

I do agree with the above poster re: if TL leaves. If TL leaves, then BF would get a lot of PT at the point next year, and would be hard to dislodge by a frosh, so he would stay.

If TL plays next year, on a NC caliber team, that changes. BF would be considered a capable PG at best the year after, who is 2 years removed from serious PT at the position, which could well be a rebuilding year at UNC, with TL, TH, and WE out the door.

If you are Roy, looking at a team with oodles of incomming talent (almost certainly, probably starting with Roe later today), do you play the slow, Sr PG, which will necessitate breaking in a new starter the next year when your team is ready to challenge for the NC again, or do you play the speedy, pass first Frosh, let him get valuable experience, and then kill people the next year?
Roy will start BF early in the year and then replace him with the frosh by early december.

Essentially that happend this year. Some of my father's coworkers have ties to UNC, and the whispers were that Roy wanted to replace BF with TL, but needed an excuse to do so. The injury vs KY was that excuse. If not for that, the first subpar game by BF would have moved him to the bench. Even prior to that, TL was playing the key minutes.

If TL stays, BF has seen his last significant minutes at PG. There is no guarantee of a NC at UNC, with the loss of Wright I think it even less likely than this year even if the others improve (Hans aint getting much better), so BF might be sticking arround to ride pine on another underachieving UNC squad.

I do not see BF's rationale for staying if TL doesn't go pro (Which could still happen, regardless of what's been said).

Patrick Yates

[CDu]

What makes you think that Ginyard will ever play PF on a team with Hans, Stephenson, and Thompson on it, plus that 6'6 230 lb kid that redshirted this year? Only catastrophic injury or foul trouble would see Roy go that route. He has 3 quality bigs to rotate between 2 positions, with Hans and Thompson being ready for 25-30 mpg each. He will need to play stephenson the rest to develop him for the year after when Hans is almost certain to be gone.

I see Green and Ginyard as being mostly 3's with the capability of playing 2. Indeed, they will have to work on their perimeter skills if they want to play pro ball, and each has the potential to do that. WE is already a prototypical SG in college, and I do not see him playing a lot of 3 with the other two on the team. I see Roy as splitting the bulk of the wing (SG and SF) between these three players.

We will have to agree to disagree on the three guard alignment featuring BF, WE, and TL. That lineup would make opposing coaches salivate. BF is easy to guard, so he gets the least athletic defender on the court (Paulus). WE could be shut down by a dedicated defender who is a good, if not great athlete, or at least slow him down. This lets you put your best perimeter defender on Lawson. This is not ideal, and the kids are good enough on offense to do some damage, possibly serious damage if they are on...

But who do they guard. Seriously, that trio could not (actually they could, except for BF, a more apt statement is that the other two WILL NOT) guard a bunch of girls. I am not talking about girls on the WBB team, I mean three random chicks out of the stands. While they would score on O, this trio is a defensive nightmare for Roy. Duke's guards would light that up.

TL's height dictates that he guard the opposing point, regardless of skill or athleticism, or risk being backed down. He let GP arround him some, mainly because it is obvious he does not like to play D.

Your lineup necessitates that WE guard the small forward, who could easily post up the 6-4 WE, or possibly drive arround or shoot over the unimpressively athletic WE. Against us this could mean anyone from TK (shoots over), DM (goes around), GH and MP (Shoot over and go arround). He matches up OK with JS of course.

Who does BF guard? His guy could get 10-15 straight before he comes out.

This is not a rant on UNC's guards. These three would not play together because as a group they highlight each other's weaknesses, rather than matching strength with weakness like a lineup of TL, WE, and one of the G's.

By letting WE play a shorter player, he can play better D, and is able to exploit the opposition on O.

Your lineup is great for Duke, and MD, GT and a few others, but not so much for UNC, which is why I think Roy doesn't run it.

Now, if Green (sounds like he misses home) or Ginyard (unlikely) were to transfer out, then yes, minutes for BF would be available.

I do agree with the above poster re: if TL leaves. If TL leaves, then BF would get a lot of PT at the point next year, and would be hard to dislodge by a frosh, so he would stay.

If TL plays next year, on a NC caliber team, that changes. BF would be considered a capable PG at best the year after, who is 2 years removed from serious PT at the position, which could well be a rebuilding year at UNC, with TL, TH, and WE out the door.

If you are Roy, looking at a team with oodles of incomming talent (almost certainly, probably starting with Roe later today), do you play the slow, Sr PG, which will necessitate breaking in a new starter the next year when your team is ready to challenge for the NC again, or do you play the speedy, pass first Frosh, let him get valuable experience, and then kill people the next year?
Roy will start BF early in the year and then replace him with the frosh by early december.

Essentially that happend this year. Some of my father's coworkers have ties to UNC, and the whispers were that Roy wanted to replace BF with TL, but needed an excuse to do so. The injury vs KY was that excuse. If not for that, the first subpar game by BF would have moved him to the bench. Even prior to that, TL was playing the key minutes.

If TL stays, BF has seen his last significant minutes at PG. There is no guarantee of a NC at UNC, with the loss of Wright I think it even less likely than this year even if the others improve (Hans aint getting much better), so BF might be sticking arround to ride pine on another underachieving UNC squad.

I do not see BF's rationale for staying if TL doesn't go pro (Which could still happen, regardless of what's been said).

Patrick Yates

You clearly misread my post. I never said Ginyard would play PF. I said Green would steal minutes at PF. The basis for that is simple: he played minutes at PF this year, when Hansbrough, Wright, Terry, Stepheson, and Thompson were on the team. Trust me: Green (who is easily 6'6" 220, and will be a junior) will play minutes at PF next year.

I thought I'd made it quite clear that someone will have to play the third guard role (and that someone won't be Ginyard or Green). I'll try to make it more clear. Wes Miller played 10 minutes per game. Terry played 21 minutes per game. Wright played 27 minutes per game. I suspect that Thompson and Stepheson take most (not all) of Wright's 27 minutes, and Ginyard, Green and Graves take most (not all) of Terry's 21 minutes. The leftover minutes there will go to increased minutes for Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington. That leaves 10 additional minutes for a guy to play backup point guard and perimeter threat (i.e, Frasor). If you add those 10 minutes to the 10 minutes he already averaged, you'd get 20 minutes. Imagine that: exactly the same number I projected before.

Clearly, you disagree, and ramble on in an attempt to prove your point. I've tried to explain my point to you with a simple breakdown of minutes. Since you disagree with my breakdown and I disagree with your rambling and wild speculation, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[keithg]

PY has clearly taken the role that many Carolina fans played between 1999 and 2004...figuring out why the enemy will fail ,as opposed to concentrating on why their team will suceed...

Useless if you ask me.

In all honesty, Bobby Frasor is not so talented that I'm not sure Duke fans would gain much from a transfer. Ole Roy is a recruiting machine and any transfers outside his top 5 players or so, only would open up a scholarship for another HS all-american.

Anybody remember the last transfer from UNC?...I guess it would be Boone, Morrison and Fing who were indirectly replaced by Felton, McCants and May...pretty good trade-off if you ask me.

[Wander]

If he doesn't care about a future as a player, stay at UNC. But there are minutes available at other big time schools, and I do not see BF waiting around to see who Roy recruits over him again.

Where do you come up with this junk? Do you think that Pocius "doesn't care about his future as a player" if he stays at Duke? He could certainly get big time minutes and be a starter at another school.

Frasor will get his minutes. Not a huge amount, but significant minutes.

[kramerbr]

I enjoy reading your posts. You seem to really go into in-depth analysis and put alot of thoughts into your posts. However...do they have to be so fricken long?

Try doing something I tell my 3rd graders to do....summarize.

I look forward to reading your interesting perspectives in future posts.

[Patrick Yates]

PY has clearly taken the role that many Carolina fans played between 1999 and 2004...figuring out why the enemy will fail ,as opposed to concentrating on why their team will suceed...

Useless if you ask me.

In all honesty, Bobby Frasor is not so talented that I'm not sure Duke fans would gain much from a transfer. Ole Roy is a recruiting machine and any transfers outside his top 5 players or so, only would open up a scholarship for another HS all-american.

Anybody remember the last transfer from UNC?...I guess it would be Boone, Morrison and Fing who were indirectly replaced by Felton, McCants and May...pretty good trade-off if you ask me.

Figuring out why UNC will fail next year is all we have right now. Without PP (who is not a panacea in the post, IMHO), there are not a lot of reasons why Duke will win vs UNC, and certainly not in the postseason. During the period of which you speak, Duke was clearly superior to UNC. We out recruited them and dominated them on the court. They were not getting any better, so they had to hope that we would get worse.

The pendulum has swung the other way. If they bring everybody back, and we bring everybody back, and both teams work approximately as hard in the offseason, they will crush us, 2-3 times next year.

We lose our only true inside presence, while they have 3 solid posts, with one of those being spectacular, and the other 2 being more than capable this year to very good next year. They are at least as good on the wing as we are next year, and I like their PG situation if everyone comes back.

Sure, our guys will get better. So will theirs. Shooting the 3 was a weakness for them last year. WE and TL are almost sure to make huge strides next year, and Green and Ginyard will improve, and Frasor will be a killer off the bench. Think what a summer will do for Thompson and Stephenson, especially working out with and against Psycho T?

I am sorry if it bothers people that I am tearing down the opposition. That is the only golden lining that I see right now. Now that Conley is likely to go with Oden to the league, UNC could be virtually unapposed next year.

If UNC wins 2 NCs in 3 years, our lives will get much, much worse. If you think Roy is rolling now, wait till that happens. So yes, I am tearing down. It is called hope. As both teams stand now, we are clearly second tier to UNC next year.

Patrick Yates

[coot]

Does anyone know if this guy is leaning towards going into the NBA draft? I'm wondering if the college peer pressure will keep him in school. Seemed like the Gator guys decided to stay in college as a group last season.

Another thought on Wright: Seemingly he was going to go to Duke for basketball late in the recruiting process. At the last minute he committed to UNC. Did he say why? Were the media folks that far off with this guy? I guess "upsets" in recruiting happen. Maybe we'll get PP at the last minute like UNC got Wright.

coot

[Coach Roy Rules]

Maybe he will stay. UNC would have a great chance to go all the way. :p

[freedevil]

^ Crickets.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Everything I've heard has him probably going. Of course there's a chance he'll change his mind, but it's hard to pass up a probably top 5 pick (and possibly top 3). I do get the feeling that he'd like to stay at UNC for another year, but the money, along with the chance of injury, is too great to pass up (these are just my personal observations based on what I've read). He's waiting to make/announce a decision until Roy gets back from a trip to England (I think); Friday would probably be the earliest he would announce anything.

As for his recruitment, I can't tell you too much. I've heard that we (UNC) were going for Durant and switched our concentration on Wright later in the process after Durant had questionable grades. How much of that is true, however, I couldn't say.

[pamtar]

we (UNC) were going for Durant and switched our concentration on Wright later in the process after Durant had questionable grades.

Good one! The grades thing I mean.

[Heelo]

Good one! The grades thing I mean.

Either Tywon Lawson's lying, or it's a fact:
There was a chance you and Kevin Durant could have ended up at UNC. How did that all play out?

"I don't know ... We were supposed to commit the same day. I ended up committing and he said he committed, but Coach wouldn't take him yet because of his grades."

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/616342.html

[captmojo]

the crickets are great!

[dukelion]

Finally......

UNC will still be good next year but thieir front court depth will now be a legitimate question mark.

http://www.draftexpress.com/blogs.php?blogid=3

[CDu]

It's great news. That would be one less good big man for UNC's depth.

I wouldn't say their front court depth would be a question mark, though. Their frontcourt still looks a LOT deeper than ours. Thompson looked very impressive late last year, and Hansbrough is still a force.

But it would weaken them. Thompson (especially) and Stepheson are nice players, but they aren't Wright.

[Olympic Fan]

UNC will be losing a great prospect in Wright -- one who was on the verge of being a great player. That hurts.

But I think it's a stretch to suggest that their frontcourt depth is a question mark. They still have a three-man post rotation of Tyler Hansbrough, Dion Thompson and Alex Stephenson. That's about as strong as trio as you're going to find in college basketball (unless Hibbert and Green return to Georgetown).

Throw in Copeland and maybe William Graves (at 6-6, 250, he's an odd prospect ... is he a super-heavy wing or a slightly undersized post).

They may have some flaws next season, but I don't think frontcourt depth is one of them.

[Bud]

This is very good news but UNC will still be the best team in the ACC. Also Tyler, Dion, Alex, and Copeland, I would say that is a very good frontcourt.

[Lord Ash]

Excellent, good start to a day; now if only PP will realize that he needs to put on a Duke uniform and follow Brand and Boozer and Williams...

And they won't be the best team in the ACC. Second best, maybe.

[Bud]

Lord Ash I respectfully disagree with you, tell me a team int the acc that will be better than UNC next year. Duke will be better next year but not is good as UNC. GT might be the second best team but it looks like thet are losing Young, and crittian. State will also have a solid team but their backcourt is going to be weak.

[JasonEvans]

If only Lawson would follow him to the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Wander]

Their frontcourt still looks a LOT deeper than ours.

That's not really saying much.



GT might be the second best team


Georgia Tech might be the second best team if they played in the Horizon League. They won't be the second best in the ACC.



And they won't be the best team in the ACC.


UNC is far from a lock to win the ACC, but they're still the team to beat, even if we land Patterson.

An interesting side-effect of this is that NC State will now probably have the best frontcourt in the ACC. Duke should have the best backcourt, with UNC having a good balance of the two. I'm guessing those three are going to be the top three in the ACC.

[Lord Ash]

Lord Ash I respectfully disagree with you, tell me a team int the acc that will be better than UNC next year. Duke will be better next year but not is good as UNC. GT might be the second best team but it looks like thet are losing Young, and crittian. State will also have a solid team but their backcourt is going to be weak.

Duke. Next question?

:)

[Bud]

Wander GT is going to be very good and experinced next year. their starting lineup could be crittenton at the pg, besides lawson this guy is the next fastest pg in the ACC. Clinch at the sg if he returns which I think he will he is a solid shooter and was leading them in scoring before he was dismissed from the team. Young as the sf position I do not have to tell you how good he is. Smith at the pf. he is very physical player very good rebounder and a solid scorer. And Dickey at the c I think he will be one of the best post players in the acc next year. I know Young is more than likley gone but they still have Faye,morrow, and peahttp://www.dukebasketballreport.comhttp://www.dukebasketballreport.comhttp://www.dukebasketballreport.comhttp://www.dukebasketballreport.com, off the bench. Also they are bringing in three very talanted freshman Lawal, 6'8 pf was a MDAA and he is very good. Also a 4 star pg miller he is 6'1 I have not seen him play but I hear he is good and will make a good backup for crittenton. And they are bringing in a 3 star sf storrs who is 6'4 I do not know anything about him. But my point is that is 10 scholership player GT might be the most athletic team in the acc next year and a very deep team. That starting 5 is scary also.

[Bud]

I'am sorry that post got screwed up but my point is that even if Young does go to the NBA Gt is still going to be a solid team, look at the starting 5 I had on the last post I would take that 5 against anyother team starting 5.

[pless55]

I think won't really be hurt by Brandan Wright entering the draft. They'll still be a Top Five team. I think Duke will alot better, maybe the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight with Patrick Patterson. My standings: 1. UNC 2. DUKE 3. NC STATE. That's my top three.

[ACCBBallFan]

Assuming at least one of Crittenden and Young stays at GT, the Yellow Jackets will finish in top 3 of ACC ahead of NC State. GT has by far the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule next year.

[Bud]

1] UNC
2] GT if Young and crittion stay.
3] NC State
4] Duke
5] Clemson

I hope I'am wrong about duke finishing in 4 place but inless Zoubec and Thomas inprove a lot we are going to be very weak in the post and other teams are going to take advantage of that, and I do not see us getting pp, he would help a lot. On the other hand I think we do have the best backcourt. And I might be wrong but I think some of you are wrong about GT they are going to be good, but if they do loose crittion and Young then I do think NC State and Duke move up one and GT will drop to 4th.

[MChambers]

Of course, since he is the Heels coach, that doesn't surprise me. In all seriousness, however, is he saying you should always go if you'll go in the top five?
I think there are a lot of other good reasons to stay in school, if you like college and have at least a good coach. I've often wondered if Mike D regrets leaving after his junior year. He's been burdened with unrealistic expectations and lousy teams ever since.
Feel free to post all sorts of jokes about (i) Ol' Roy and (ii) a UNC education, of course, but I'm completely serious.

[_Gary]

Of course UNC will still be very good next year, and tops in the ACC. But I think some here are underestimating how important Wright was to this year's Heels team. His absence will not be easily replaced, and I look for Tyler to suffer the most (offensively) from this loss.

Gary

[dukelion]

Of course UNC will still be very good next year, and tops in the ACC. But I think some here are underestimating how important Wright was to this year's Heels team. His absence will not be easily replaced, and I look for Tyler to suffer the most (offensively) from this loss.

Gary

You make a good point Gary. Wright averaged 15 ppg and barley took any shots. Wright's FG% was over 60% which allowed him to score at a good clip while at the same time allowing Hansbrough to still be the main post option.

But without Wright, Hansbrough will get doubled and will be without the luxury of such a skilled complement post player. Thompson is good but he isn't near the athlete Wright was........Wright could get his own shot against anyone......Thompson can't.

Losing Terry hurts as well becasue he was another guy that scored a bunch without many minutes. Also losing Wes Miller hurts more than people think because he was there best three point shooter eventhough he got limited minutes.

Combined Carolina loses 27 ppg and 12 rbs/g. And all they are adding is a redshirt SF freshman to the mix. Their perimter shooting will really suffer as Terry and Miller were very reliable outside shooters. Replacing them primarily will be Green and Ginyard who are average shooters at best especially Ginyard who I would consider a bad shooter.

If Hansbrough gets into foul trouble I can envision stretchs of the game where UNC will find it hard to score the basketball. Teams may also opt to play zone a lot to limit Hansbrough and force UNC to make some shots.

Either way UNC will have more issues next year than they did this year.

[SilkyJ]

But without Wright, Hansbrough will get doubled and will be without the luxury of such a skilled complement post player.


Of course UNC will still be very good next year, and tops in the ACC. But I think some here are underestimating how important Wright was to this year's Heels team. His absence will not be easily replaced, and I look for Tyler to suffer the most (offensively) from this loss.

Gary

Are you guys crazy? Did you guys not see Hansbrough his freshman year when he didnt have Wright? IDENTICAL stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=27018

Not to mention as a Freshman he didn't have Lawson dishing him the ball and drawing defenders with penetration (or ellington for that matter)? He was a one man show who took UNC on his back the whole year. Did I mention he broke the scoring record in the Dean Dome as a FRESHMAN.

Look, I want UNC to go 0-30 every year, but I think Tyler will be just fine.

[Classof06]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/6728754

[dukeENG2003]

whew! That makes my monday, I was starting to get worried there for a bit. . .

[Patrick Yates]

This is the week when it gets crazy arround the country, as far as early departures go.

Let the mayhem begin!

Patrick Yates

Edit: Domino. No Quayles here.

[GopherBlue]

Will not hire an agent, but according to Ol' Roy, it's "99.99%" that he'll remain in the draft.

http://www.newsobserver.com/100/story/567004.html

http://http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/news/story?id=2846811

[Cameron]

Not a big surprise here. I for one am ecstatic to hear Roy say it himself, though. He's probably getting drunk off some Royal Crowns right now (after the amount of clothing and gifts he probably spent on Brandan to stay in Chapel Hill, Coke may not be applicable at the moment:))

[CDu]

Not a big surprise here. I for one am ecstatic to hear Roy say it himself, though. He's probably getting drunk off some Royal Crowns right now (after the amount of clothing and gifts he probably spent on Brandan to stay in Chapel Hill, Coke may not be applicable at the moment:))

I'm sure he knew Wright was going pro from nearly the moment Wright set foot on campus. And after keeping Lawson and Hansbrough (the two most important players), he was pretty much playing with house money. Thompson will do fine in place of Wright. They won't be hurting for depth in the paint, that's for sure. Losing Wright just takes them from hands-down favorites for national #1 to merely hands-down favorites for ACC #1, and still clearly a top-25 team.

[ACCBBallFan]

Still have to wonder how much of a difference Brandan would have made at Duke.

It did not affect UNC since Thaddeus Young would have taken his place but would have had a ripple effect on Ga Tech.

[pfrduke]

Still have to wonder how much of a difference Brandan would have made at Duke.

It did not affect UNC since Thaddeus Young would have taken his place but would have had a ripple effect on Ga Tech.

Having watched an awful lot of Duke, slightly less of UNC, and further slightly less of Georgia Tech, here's a three part answer.

Duke - huge difference. As a reliable back to the basket scorer (almost 66% from the floor) he could have played high-low with Josh a lot (a high-low game with those two could have been both beautiful and deadly). He would have also been a significant impact on the defensive end, providing another stud shot-blocker. And he possibly could have led to Duke playing a slightly more up-and-down style, since he can run, catch, and finish in transition. No increase in depth, as Thomas would not have matriculated, but gone to Rutgers instead (in all likelihood).

UNC - moderate difference. Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, while comparable in rankings, are not really comparable players. Without Wright, Thompson and Stepheson shoulder the post burden to the extent UNC wanted to play with two bigs. Young is much more of a wing, and even at 6'7" is not that great with his back to the basket. He would have taken minutes from Ellington, Green, Terry, and Miller (though Terry would himself have taken some of Wright's minutes). Wright played about 28-30 mpg - I would imagine 15 of those would have gone to Thompson, 5 to Stepheson, and the remaining 8-10 to Terry/Ginyard. Don't underestimate how crucial Wright was to the Heels' success this year - he was their best interior defender, a rebounder of almost equal ability to Hansbrough, and the second-fastest guy (behind Lawson) on the fast break. Oh, and he converted nearly 2/3 of his shots. To say Thompson and Stepheson could have smoothly stepped in without some drop-off short changes how special of a player Brandan Wright is.

Georgia Tech - big drop-off. Young was inconsistent, but was the Jackets' best player when he was on. While Crittenton, Morrow, et al. would still have had similar statistical seasons, the drop-off from Young to some combination of West, Faye, and Bell is huge - those three are solid players, particularly on defense, but simply couldn't provide the offensive threat of Young.

[phaedrus]

well, to complete the circle, you have to consider that lance thomas' matriculation at rutgers would have forced rutgers' stud freshman big man to commit to georgia tech. or not.

[ACCBBallFan]

UNC - moderate difference. Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, while comparable in rankings, are not really comparable players. Without Wright, Thompson and Stepheson shoulder the post burden to the extent UNC wanted to play with two bigs. Young is much more of a wing,

While I agree Young and Wright play different styles, I doubt UNC would have been pre-disposed to two bigs. I think Thaddeus Young would have moved into the role vacated by David Noel, that the returning players were already used to. It;s just when you have a weapon like wright, you use it.

Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson are not nearly as good as Thaddeus Young, at least not yet, neither as good as Lance Thomas nor any better than Brian Zoubek. I view Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard as better players, as sophomores than either of the UNC bigs would have been as frosh. They just had the misfortune of being behind the senior Terry.

I agree with your conclusion of moderate difference. My point was not so much UNC or GA Tech as what you elaborated on about Duke's potential high-low game. I also think it would have had a ripple effect of Zoubek developing more in that same role, once Brandan had proved its viability, and Duke continuously practiced it, rather than it being a total opposite of how Duke normally played.

Over his tenure at Duke, Lance will end up contributing more in three or four years than BW would have in one, just not the immediate impact. So longer term, no regrets, unless that one year would have gotten Duke further than it got UNC. Duke seemed one player away from being top tier, but my guess is that may have also ended in another Sweet 16 or possibly Elite Eight, not FF or NC.

[Coballs]

When Wright spurned Duke I was upset and somewhat surprised. It appeared as if Duke was the leader in his recruitment. In retrospect, we are now alot better off as UNC failed to go to the Final 4 with Wright and we have LT for the next 3 years.

[Waynne]

Why isn't Ty Lawson also declaring this year? Very likely he would go higher this year than next. He probably would be the first or second PG taken this year and could well be a lottery pick, while next year he will just be one of at least 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft. Don't they teach these young men anything at UNC?:)

[Bob Green]

Deon Thompson is the happiest man in Chapel Hill. His playing time should increase from 12.4 mpg to 25+ mpg with the departure of Wright (27 mpg). Thompson's skills are not as polished as Wright's skills, but Thompson is bulkier (245 pounds) and likes to play physical. With Hansbrough and Thompson starting together, Carolina will be a more physical team. However, they lose Wright's wingspan and presence as an intimidating shot-blocker, and Thompson does not run the floor as well.

Ty Lawson returning as their Floor General means that Carolina will still be a very talented team. I expect them to be ranked in the top three when we beat them in Chapel Hill. By the time we beat them in Cameron, they will have fallen to around number ten.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[kydevil]

Why isn't Ty Lawson also declaring this year? Very likely he would go higher this year than next. He probably would be the first or second PG taken this year and could well be a lottery pick, while next year he will just be one of at least 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft. Don't they teach these young men anything at UNC?:)

I'm sure Roy pulled Ty's string into keeping him around for one more year... it's a shame that he will have to compete with Rose, Mayo, Gordon, etc....

[dukelion]

Deon Thompson is the happiest man in Chapel Hill. His playing time should increase from 12.4 mpg to 25+ mpg with the departure of Wright (27 mpg). Thompson's skills are not as polished as Wright's skills, but Thompson is bulkier (245 pounds) and likes to play physical. With Hansbrough and Thompson starting together, Carolina will be a more physical team. However, they lose Wright's wingspan and presence as an intimidating shot-blocker, and Thompson does not run the floor as well.



Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Good point Bob,

Wright blocked 2 shots per game and altered countless others. UNC will really miss that and they have no adequate shot blocker to replace him.

Terry and Wright were both great athletes and UNC becomes much less athletic now that they are gone.

[Patrick Yates]

I'm sure Roy pulled Ty's string into keeping him around for one more year... it's a shame that he will have to compete with Rose, Mayo, Gordon, etc....

Now that Singletary has dclared, Ty may be smart to stay in CH next year.

I think Singletary will go pro. I said this weeks ago, and I beleive he will agent up and stay in the draft. Most of the decent players around him are gone. The coach is reportedly very abusive towards his players, and many do not like being yelled at. Last year the Cavs were pretty successful. I have stated my opinion that even with Singletary they were one of the 4 worst teams in the ACC next year. This means less exposure for Singletary in his SR year, a year when scouts start looking for flaws rather than potential. Realistically, Singletary has more to lose than TL by not coming back. Thus, next year's pg class gets a little weaker.

Also, how do we know that next year's class is all that at guard. Yes, based on projections/recruiting rankings, it SHOULD be loaded with PGs, but we know that those rankings are flawed.

Young at GT was supposed to be this all everything from day one, but he wasn't. The Arthur kid at KS was not as good as hyped. McBob is no superstar. Eillington is nowhere near as good as the hype stated.

What I am saying is that one or two of the "super recruits" at guard will be exposed next year. I don't know who, but one or two will. Rose at Mem is the real deal supposedly, but he is as close to a lock at PG as it can get.

Mayo can call himself a PG till the cows come home, but he is a SG, and a gunner at that. Also, he is really old, a la Hans, so the pros will start looking for flaws from day one. Same with Gordon, who has been a SG his entire career. He will really have to show me that he can run a team next year. He will get the chance reportedly, to be the PG at IU, but that could really backfire

Crittendon is one of the players who was exposed. He is good, with loads of potential, but he will have to produce to show it.

TL has a great situation next year. He is the starting PG on what will probably be the 1 team next year, and no worst than the 3 in preseason. Most, if not all, his games will be on national TV. I think UNC has less competition to reach the FF than this year (and even Roy admitted that G-Town was his biggest fear going into the ncaas, a nightmare matchup really).

If TL comes out this year, he must prove himself in individual workouts, especially with regards to his shooting. If he gets his shooting down this summer, and showcases it next year, he is a late lottery selection (probably his ceiling due to his short ceiling er height) without turning his hand. Strong workouts might even move him up.

Now that Singletary is in the draft, along with Conley, there are two guards potentially ahead of TL.

Now, sadly, I think TL comes back. Again, as satisfying as the G-Town game was, a UNC loss to OSU in the FF would have been great for Duke. TL and BW might have annouced within a week, with Hans following, thus decimating UNC. Now, they are again a prohibitive favorite to win the NC.

Crap.

Patrick Yates

[ikiru36]

Now that Singletary has dclared, Ty may be smart to stay in CH next year.

I think Singletary will go pro. I said this weeks ago, and I beleive he will agent up and stay in the draft. Most of the decent players around him are gone. The coach is reportedly very abusive towards his players, and many do not like being yelled at. Last year the Cavs were pretty successful. I have stated my opinion that even with Singletary they were one of the 4 worst teams in the ACC next year. This means less exposure for Singletary in his SR year, a year when scouts start looking for flaws rather than potential. Realistically, Singletary has more to lose than TL by not coming back. Thus, next year's pg class gets a little weaker.

Also, how do we know that next year's class is all that at guard. Yes, based on projections/recruiting rankings, it SHOULD be loaded with PGs, but we know that those rankings are flawed.

Young at GT was supposed to be this all everything from day one, but he wasn't. The Arthur kid at KS was not as good as hyped. McBob is no superstar. Eillington is nowhere near as good as the hype stated.

What I am saying is that one or two of the "super recruits" at guard will be exposed next year. I don't know who, but one or two will. Rose at Mem is the real deal supposedly, but he is as close to a lock at PG as it can get.

Mayo can call himself a PG till the cows come home, but he is a SG, and a gunner at that. Also, he is really old, a la Hans, so the pros will start looking for flaws from day one. Same with Gordon, who has been a SG his entire career. He will really have to show me that he can run a team next year. He will get the chance reportedly, to be the PG at IU, but that could really backfire

Crittendon is one of the players who was exposed. He is good, with loads of potential, but he will have to produce to show it.

TL has a great situation next year. He is the starting PG on what will probably be the 1 team next year, and no worst than the 3 in preseason. Most, if not all, his games will be on national TV. I think UNC has less competition to reach the FF than this year (and even Roy admitted that G-Town was his biggest fear going into the ncaas, a nightmare matchup really).

If TL comes out this year, he must prove himself in individual workouts, especially with regards to his shooting. If he gets his shooting down this summer, and showcases it next year, he is a late lottery selection (probably his ceiling due to his short ceiling er height) without turning his hand. Strong workouts might even move him up.

Now that Singletary is in the draft, along with Conley, there are two guards potentially ahead of TL.

Now, sadly, I think TL comes back. Again, as satisfying as the G-Town game was, a UNC loss to OSU in the FF would have been great for Duke. TL and BW might have annouced within a week, with Hans following, thus decimating UNC. Now, they are again a prohibitive favorite to win the NC.

Crap.

Patrick Yates

I agree that TL will likely have a good season should he stay at UNC next year (more and more definite by the day).

You do raise a fair point regarding the predicted relative strength of next year's draft vs. this year's. However, I would add the caveat that especially when it comes to PG's (and sub-6'0 one's at that) teams in the 1st round draft somewhat according to need. Therefore, unless a lot of team's top need is for a pure PG (no matter how small) the #5 PG in a given draft (even if, say, #8 overall) is likely gonna get drafted a bit lower than being the #2 PG (even if, say, #12 overall) in a different draft. My only other point of contention is that Singletary's decision may have partly been predicated upon Lawson's not going, for the precise reasons alluded to above.

I would still say that going this year (unless he was hearing that he simply wasn't Top 15 material this time around) is a better decision, from a pure draft position standpoint (especially since one would need to move up at least 3-4 spots to make up for the lost salary, while still being another year away from free agency).

All that being said, in Lawson's case, he probably was hurt more than most by his undistinguished tourney performance, especially given his small stature. Basically, as quick as he is, he's yet to show that he's the next TJ Ford (or something in that ballpark), and that's what he wants teams drafting him to be thinking. And, in all honesty, if he really is a kid who partly values the college experience such that it is a factor in his decision, I can't honestly diss him for that. Rather, I'll continue to diss away for his poor choice of campuses! :0)

P.S. I truly think that "prohibitive favorite" is too strong to describe them, without Wright. They lose a fair amount of athleticism between Wright and Terry. Make no mistake, UNC will be very good next year, but, with or without Patterson, we won't be an easy out either!

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!