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View Full Version : Who are the #1 seeds now?!?!



JasonEvans
02-28-2007, 04:02 PM
A week ago, you could have booked Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State, UNC, and Florida for the #1s and the top #2. Now... not so much.

Wisconsin has lost 2 in a row and just lost their best big man, Brian Butch, for 4-6 weeeks with an elbow injury. If they play poorly without Butch against a desperate Michigan State team this week or in the Big Ten tourney, their #2 seed could even be in some (small) jeopardy.

Florida's recent struggles are well documented. They've lost 3 of 4 and have Kentucky this weekend-- far from a guaranteed win. If they gaack that game and then play uninspired in the SEC tourney, they too could end up with a #3 seed.

Carolina has lost 2 of 4 and has 2 very tough games left before the murderous ACC tourney. It is not at all hard to see them losing 1, 2, or even 3 more games before the season is over.

UCLA has won 4 in a row, including at Arizona by 15 and over a decent STanford team by 14. They still have 2 tough games at Wash and at Wash State but they should be fine for a #1 seed.

Ohio State is pretty much assured of one after beating Wisconsin last weekend. They are on a roll and even if they lost at Michigan this week, I think they would be just fine for a #1 seed.

So, who else? If we think Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin are on the outs, who takes their place?

The most obvious choice is the rapidly improving Kansas. They had already played their way into consideration by winning 10 of their past 11... though it is worth noting that the only time they have played a ranked team in those 11 games (vs. Texas A&M), they lost. The Big 12 is down this year and with the unbalanced schedule they play in that league, Kansas only plays the good teams in the conference once each. Kansas' sked is ranked #76 in the land according to Sagarin, which is nothing special.

What about another big 12 team, Texas A&M? It almost seems unfathomable that they could be a #1, but if they win at Texas this week and then win the Big 12 tourney over Kansas, they'd almost have to be one, right? On the other hand, their schedule is sorta pathetic, #93 according to Sagarin, and they have played only 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 50 (by comparison, UNC has played 15 games against top 50 teams and Duke has played 16-- more than any other team in the nation).

I guess, almost by default, Memphis has to be part of this conversation, though if you want to talk about weak schedules, they take the cake. It is not really their fault, playing in a lousy conference, but still, their sked is just pathetic.

There is a piece of me that thinks Georgetown deserves real consideration for a #1 seed, but they blew it with that game at Syracuse this week. Win that and then win the Big East tourney and I think they would have had a very compelling case. But, they lost to Syracuse and I don't think they are really in the running.

Ok, time to open this up to other folks-- feel free to chime in. Who should get the #1 seeds?

-Jason "here's an insane thought-- if we run the table, could we get a #1?" Evans

hurleyfor3
02-28-2007, 04:24 PM
"here's an insane thought-- if we run the table, could we get a #1?"

No. A two, maybe.

DukieUGA
02-28-2007, 04:30 PM
while it can certainly be fun to speculate about #1 seeds etc., i think it's kind of a fruitless exercise as of now. Almost entirely due to the thoroughly pathetic play of all of the "top" seeds lately, with exception to Oden State U. As bad as all of them have played lately, they can all still get #1 seeds by winning 50% of remaining reg. season games AND winning their tourneys. I don't think they'll get #1 seeds w/o winning their tourneys.
I must admit, there seems to be much more parity this year than most and that it ought to be very exciting/challenging to develop this year's brackets. The parity, however, is more intra-conference than inter-conference. "Major" conferences are still getting most of the top recruits, but the teams traditionally at the bottom of those leagues are keeping 4 year guys whereas "top" programs are losing their top talent to early departure. Parity has gone up some for "mid-major' conferences in that they are still hanging on to 4-year guys and that experience helped them win a few more games against other conferences.

NW Indiana Dukie
02-28-2007, 04:31 PM
As of now, I believe there are two "locks" for #1 seeds. Ohio State[B]and [B]UCLA
They have both taken care of business so far and even if they lose out a strong case can be made to keep them as 1's.

The other two spots are going to be a crap shoot. I will go with Kansas[B]and [B]Florida
I agree that Kansas may suffer alittle because the Big 12 is down but make it to the Big 12 Championship and I feel the will get a 1.

I just look at all the talent Flordia has and I can't see how the won't shake the current funk their in and go on another streak.

Boy what a different a week or two has made.

Clipsfan
02-28-2007, 04:38 PM
I think that you could argue that if we run the table we'd be a potential one seed, but the question is slightly moot; I don't think that the chances of running that table are all that great. In order to do so, we'd have to beat MD, UNC, MD, BC, UNC or something of that order. If we did do that, our RPI would be close to top 4, and the polls would probably have us near that range.

We'd also have to be helped by the continued downward trends of the other top teams. As of now, only 2 top seeds are locked up (UCLA, Ohio State). Additionally, there has historically been at least one team from the ACC which is a one seed. It's possible that the committee would move Duke up to a one at the last second if they did make it through that murderer's row.

Clipsfan
02-28-2007, 04:44 PM
while it can certainly be fun to speculate about #1 seeds etc., i think it's kind of a fruitless exercise as of now. Almost entirely due to the thoroughly pathetic play of all of the "top" seeds lately, with exception to Oden State U.


I can't help but think that this shows the east coast bias which schools on the west coast complain about. I think it's easy to argue that UCLA has not played anywhere NEAR pathetically, given that their RPI is #1, their record is the best, and their only loss in the last month was without their PG, a key component to the team. They've actually played much of the season without various starters due to injury, but are deep enough that it hasn't been an issue.

JasonEvans
02-28-2007, 05:05 PM
I can't help but think that this shows the east coast bias which schools on the west coast complain about. I think it's easy to argue that UCLA has not played anywhere NEAR pathetically, given that their RPI is #1, their record is the best, and their only loss in the last month was without their PG, a key component to the team. They've actually played much of the season without various starters due to injury, but are deep enough that it hasn't been an issue.

I dunno if it is an East Coast bias. It could just be a case of overlooking. I find it far more convincing that everyone else in this thread has agreed that UCLA is a lock for a #1 seed at this point.

The notion of an East Coast bias is really the Pac Ten's fault anyway. They should have made a TV deal that would put more of their key games on ESPN. I have an easier time finding a Gonzaga game than I do a UCLA game.

-Jason "UCLA is a team I really, really do not want to see in Duke's bracket" Evans

dukestheheat
02-28-2007, 06:11 PM
Carolina, Ohio State, Wisconsin and UCLA.

dth.

DukieUGA
02-28-2007, 06:16 PM
yeah, i shouldna included UCLA in that pathetic category. They are playing pretty well lately, not pathetic, but not perfect.

Carter431
02-28-2007, 06:48 PM
My guess as to who will be #1 seeds:

1. Ohio State
2. UCLA
3. UNC
4. Kansas

Buckeye Devil
02-28-2007, 07:49 PM
My guess as to who will be #1 seeds:

1. Ohio State
2. UCLA
3. UNC
4. Kansas

I agree totally, unless UNC and Kansas self-destruct between now and next weekend.

Time to get to the tube. I hope we turn the turtles on their backs and stick a knife in them. To think, I used to think Gary Williams was the greatest when I used to have season tickets for Ohio State.

mjones723
02-28-2007, 07:51 PM
UNC has work to do imho.

throatybeard
02-28-2007, 08:33 PM
Why is Wiscy playing Mich St twice in two weeks?