In-state rankings

[Olympic Fan]

I saw a similar thread on a rival board ... naturally they were delusional and not "Fair and Balanced" like we are. But it got me thinking about an in-state ranking.

If I had ranked the top in-state schools (1-A and 1-AA) before the season, based only on informed estimates, I would have had:

1. Wake Forest (ranked in the AP top 25)
2. East Carolina
3. Appalachian State (No. 1 in 1-AA)
4. North Carolina
5. N.C. State
6. Duke
7. Elon (No. 15 in 1-AA)
8. Western Carolina
9. North Carolina Central
10. Winston-Salem State


After the first week -- AND BASED SOLELY ON THE FIRST WEEK'S PERFORMANCE (not preseason projection), my list would look like this:

1. East Carolina (1-0 beat a ranked 1-A team on a neutral field)
2. Wake Forest (1-0 handily beat a 1-A team on the road)
3. Duke (1-0 handily beat the No. 3 ranked 1-AA team at home)
4. North Carolina (1-0 barely beat the No. 10 1-AA team at home)
5. Western Carolina (1-0 routed Div 11 Shorter)
6. NC A&T (1-0 routed Div II JC Smith)
7. App State (0-1 routed by top 10 LSU on the road)
8. N.C State (0-1 routed by South Carolina on the road)
9. Elon (0-1 lost to 1-AA Richmond, the No. 6 1-AA team)
10. Campbell (0-1 lost to 1-AA Birmingham Southern)

Not ranked: NCCU (0-1) and Gardner-Webb, Davidson and Winston-Salem State, which haven't played yet.

In my mind, a win (even over a bad team) counts more than a loss. Aming winners, I ranked them by the quality of victims more than margin ... among the 0-1 teams, I tried to rank them among the quality of the teams that beat them.

Obviously, that's not how I rate the strength of the various teams. I'm sure the list will change a lot as the season plays out. Still, it's a fun snapshot of how the NC teams rank after one week.

[wilson]

I saw a similar thread on a rival board ... naturally they were delusional and not "Fair and Balanced" like we are. But it got me thinking about an in-state ranking.

If I had ranked the top in-state schools (1-A and 1-AA) before the season, based only on informed estimates, I would have had:

1. Wake Forest (ranked in the AP top 25)
2. East Carolina
3. Appalachian State (No. 1 in 1-AA)
4. North Carolina
5. N.C. State
6. Duke
7. Elon (No. 15 in 1-AA)
8. Western Carolina
9. North Carolina Central
10. Winston-Salem State


After the first week -- AND BASED SOLELY ON THE FIRST WEEK'S PERFORMANCE (not preseason projection), my list would look like this:

1. East Carolina (1-0 beat a ranked 1-A team on a neutral field)
2. Wake Forest (1-0 handily beat a 1-A team on the road)
3. Duke (1-0 handily beat the No. 3 ranked 1-AA team at home)
4. North Carolina (1-0 barely beat the No. 10 1-AA team at home)
5. Western Carolina (1-0 routed Div 11 Shorter)
6. NC A&T (1-0 routed Div II JC Smith)
7. App State (0-1 routed by top 10 LSU on the road)
8. N.C State (0-1 routed by South Carolina on the road)
9. Elon (0-1 lost to 1-AA Richmond, the No. 6 1-AA team)
10. Campbell (0-1 lost to 1-AA Birmingham Southern)

Not ranked: NCCU (0-1) and Gardner-Webb, Davidson and Winston-Salem State, which haven't played yet.

In my mind, a win (even over a bad team) counts more than a loss. Aming winners, I ranked them by the quality of victims more than margin ... among the 0-1 teams, I tried to rank them among the quality of the teams that beat them.

Obviously, that's not how I rate the strength of the various teams. I'm sure the list will change a lot as the season plays out. Still, it's a fun snapshot of how the NC teams rank after one week.

I disagree somewhat with your contention that any win is more impressive than any loss (and would thus have NC State and App ranked a bit higher), but all in all, I think yours is a pretty fair assessment of how things stand right now (I also agree with your idea that things will undoubtedly change). An interesting way to look at things, anyway, and I'm very glad to see the ECU Pirates at the top of your state rankings (if it can't be Duke).:)

[CameronBornAndBred]

Based on what we saw this weekend I'd say you have it fairly well set. This weekend will be a better barometer of where teams are actually at, since the divisions will be playing their own. This thread should be a fun one to watch as the season progresses.

[jimsumner]

I'm pretty sure Western Carolina isn't going to be ahead of ASU or NCSU on too many assessments. But I'd take Duke in the top three for the next three months or so. In a heartbeat.

[Olympic Fan]

I disagree somewhat with your contention that any win is more impressive than any loss (and would thus have NC State and App ranked a bit higher), but all in all, I think yours is a pretty fair assessment of how things stand right now (I also agree with your idea that things will undoubtedly change). An interesting way to look at things, anyway, and I'm very glad to see the ECU Pirates at the top of your state rankings (if it can't be Duke).:)

I probably shouldn't have said that "any" win is more impressive that "any" loss, because I agree it's possible to play a great game against a great opponent and lose and still be more impressive than a team that beats a real patsy.

The problem with this week's list is that none of the losers was particularly impressive in defeat. App State was not very competitive against a very good LSU team and NCState was godawful against what I think is a pretty mediocre South Carolina team. You might convince me to move App State up a spot or two -- but no way NCS goes up ... until they beat W&M this weekend (that's IF they beat W&M this weekend).

Oh well, next week will tell us a lot more.

[mgtr]

NCState was godawful against what I think is a pretty mediocre South Carolina team.

This is probably the truest statement I have ever read on this board. It was a lousy game between two really lousy teams. Shame on Steve Spurrier.

[wilson]

The problem with this week's list is that none of the losers was particularly impressive in defeat. App State was not very competitive against a very good LSU team and NCState was godawful against what I think is a pretty mediocre South Carolina team. You might convince me to move App State up a spot or two -- but no way NCS goes up ... until they beat W&M this weekend (that's IF they beat W&M this weekend).

Oh well, next week will tell us a lot more.

Well said, but my contention came not from the perspective that there were really any impressive losses so much as there were some thoroughly unimpressive wins, most notably WCU over Shorter. NC State may well be putrid this year (I watched on Thursday, and they certainly looked that way), but you can not convince me that Western will be better than them...WCU is picked near the bottom of their AA conference (FCS, whatever). I strongly believe that NC State would wallop WCU 99 times out of 100.
Nevertheless, an interesting exercise and discussion; thanks for the kindling.

[Uncle Drew]

Very interesting post Olympic. I found the pre-season rankings of interest in particular and I think both lists will change over the course of the season. Of course it is hard to rate one team against another when they play in different conferences, yet alone divisions.

That being said, with all due respect to ECU who I think will make noise this season I think their win was as much a mark of how bad the ACC is as it tells us how good ECU is. And truth be told I'd be interested to hear people's opinions on what TEAMS have the most upside this season and room for improvement. Having seen Duke play so well even with areas that need addressing I wonder how much better Cut can get them to play. By that I mean they have already exceeded my expectations, not in wins per say but performance. I just hope they can just maintain that level all season.

Having seen / read on poor performances it is easier to see those teams improving their play. Losing to LSU is really no mark of shame for App in my opinion. They sure weren't going to be taken lightly after their game with Michigan last season. And just given the fact they are an SEC team even getting drilled by SC doesn't look quite as bad in my eyes. I think you will be able to flip flop UNC and NCSU most of the season. NCSU's loss in my eyes is about equal to UNC's win.

Pull this thread back up in November and get people to express opinions then. It will be hard for Duke to bring the same intensity every week that they brought Saturday. But if they can even muster two thirds of that I see them as a better team than NCSU or UNC and good enough to give Wake all they want and more. Duke really got nailed with the schedule this season on where they play their away games and against whom. But maybe they can upset a team or two and it makes next years schedule a bit easier.

[wilson]

Do people honestly think we can hang with Wake this season? At this juncture, they are (perhaps not so) arguably the class of the conference. They had undoubtedly the most impressive win by an ACC school last week, a 28-point road win against a BCS school. Granted, it was Baylor, but a win against a BCS school (let alone a road win) is more than any other ACC squad can say.
I understand that Wake is kind of the goal here..."If they can do it, we can do it," we've all repeated ad nauseam for the past few seasons. But Wake is coming off consecutive bowl appearances, 20 wins in the past two seasons, and an ACC title the year before last. I suspect that the perception that we should play them tough is based at least in part on historical parity between the two schools. I know (or at least hope) that we're not dealing with the Duke of old, but neither are we dealing with the Wake of old. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think we're going to go into Winston with more than an outside (frankly, way outside) chance to beat those guys at this stage in the process. If we're thinking potential ACC wins right now, we'd do better to think about our games in the following order, from most accessible to least probable:

-NC State
-UVA
-kuralonna
-GA Tech
-Miami
-Climpsun/VA Tech/Wake Forest (about even in my book)

Don't get me wrong: I am very excited about both the direction of the program and the start of the season. I'm sorry to be a cold shower, but I think our expectations could stand a bit of tempering after one win against James Madison.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Do people honestly think we can hang with Wake this season?

They seem to be one of those teams that regardless of how are programs each are, the game is good. They might blow us out of the water this year, but I don't think so. I doubt it enough that I bought tickets to that game in anticipation! (got em on Stubhub for cheaper than Wake is selling them)

[wilson]

They seem to be one of those teams that regardless of how are programs each are, the game is good. They might blow us out of the water this year, but I don't think so. I doubt it enough that I bought tickets to that game in anticipation! (got em on Stubhub for cheaper than Wake is selling them)

There have indeed been some inordinately competitive games between the two teams, but we've also gotten our butts handed to us a few times...remember getting beaten 44-6 by a 4-7 Wake team in '05?
I'm not saying the game can't be competitive, only that if we're looking for good candidates for a few ACC wins, we might do better to focus our attention elsewhere.
That said, Duke-Wake day will be an interesting day in my house, which I share with my Deac brother...:eek: