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dukie8
03-24-2007, 11:47 PM
now that duke's season is over, it seems like as good of a time as any to go take a stab at the preseason top 10 for next year. here is mine:

(1) ucla -- assuming afflalo and other 4 starters return.
(2) unc -- assuming 2 of hans, wright, lawson and ellington go.
(3) usc -- should have beaten unc (didn't they watch tenn the night before?), only lose stewart and add my majo.
(4) kansas -- lose wright but keep everyone else (rush is iffy).
(5) memphis -- all of those guys were underclassmen? ouch. hopefully some of them go.
(6) louisville -- bring almost everyone back, led by sosa and have rick p.
(7) tennessee -- should have beaten ohio st, bring all but 1 starter back and assuming lofton returns
(8) oregon -- lose brooks but everyone else returns from pac 10 champ and at least an elite 8 team.
(9) texas -- even without durant and barnes screwing things up, augustin and abrams are pretty darrn good.
(10) washington st -- they didn't look good in the ncaas but they return 4 starters from the surprise team of 2007.

i don't see gtwon, florida and ohio st making it due to the draft and graduations. i see duke starting in the 15-20 range, depending how much the voters want to stiff us. lastly, this list may be wildly off but hopefully it will get the discussion going. i also feel a little silly putting 4 pac 10 teams in it but they deserve it at this point.

FireOgilvie
03-24-2007, 11:53 PM
Wright is back next year for KU. He didn't have that great of a sophomore season, yet he had flashes of talent... he kind of reminds me of a certain Duke player. I think it's too early to say what will happen next year. Also, although they don't deserve to be in the top 10, I am very interested in seeing what Kansas State will do next year with a healthy Bill Walker, Beasley (#1 of class of 2007 according to some), and many returning players in Huggins' sophomore season.

throatybeard
03-25-2007, 12:01 AM
Yeah, Wright says he's coming back:


http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2810182 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2810182)

lavell12
03-25-2007, 02:15 AM
Well that should help J Mac's draft status.

gw67
03-25-2007, 07:19 AM
dukie8's top ten seems reasonable but defections to the 24-second league could have a big impact. Assuming that Hawes doesn't jump, my darkhorse would be another PAC Ten team, Washington. Like Duke, they were very young last year and had a hard time winning on the road and playing consistently. Their top seven players return and Hawes and Brockman will be two of the top players in the league. Like the Devils, they need to protect the ball better.

A lesser case could also be made for Stanford. They return most of their team and their frontcourt of Hill and the Lopez twins could be very good with another year of experience. Their key will be improved play from their point guard.

gw67

Troublemaker
03-25-2007, 09:08 AM
We should bump this thread after the NBA declarations are finished. For now, we gotta guess who stays and who goes...

1. OSU - Oden stays... trying to repeat?
2. UCLA - Collison stays(more important for their '08 chances than Afflalo), add Kevin Love... trying to repeat?
3. KU - Wright stays(more important than Rush)
4. G'town - Green/Hibbert stay
5. Memphis - return everyone, add Derrick Rose
6. Louisville - return everyone
7. Tennessee - lose Bradshaw, return everyone else
8. USC - return everyone, add Mayo
9. GaTech - Young/Crittendon stay
10. UNC - return Hansbro, lose Wright/Lawson

CDu
03-25-2007, 09:13 AM
Too early to tell, because you're having to make too many assumptions about who stays/goes. For example:

1) UCLA: pretty strong case, but I can see Aflalo leaving. Without him, that team changes A LOT.
2) UNC: if Wright and Hansbrough are gone (and they are the ones UNC should be most worried about), this team drops off dramatically.
4) KU: more likely to lose Rush than Wright, in my opinion.
9) Texas: no way this team is top ten without Durant. They were arguably NOT top 10 with him (as evidenced by getting obliterated by USC)

HK Dukie
03-25-2007, 10:12 AM
Post-season rankings 2008

#1 Duke
#2 who cares about the rest

houstondukie
03-25-2007, 10:24 AM
Lawson should be the biggest worry for unc fans. If he's gone next year, that leaves Quentin Thomas or Bobby Frasor at the point. If they lose either Wright or Hansborough as well, then they fall out of the top 10 in my opinion.

Olympic Fan
03-25-2007, 11:35 AM
No way to do this this early. Recent history should teach us that we'll be surprised by some guys who go and some who stay.

I mean, who would have predicted that Noah and Hortford would return after winning it all in 2006? Who would have predicted that UNC would lose both May and Marvin Williams after the 2005 title?

Well, Noah and Hortford are juniors. Neither needs the money and with the expectation that Oden, Durant and UNC's Wright are 1-2-3 in this year's draft, maybe they come back for a senior year and Florida is No. 1. Then again I have people tell me that Oden is not a lock to turn pro -- if he comes back with Conley, Cook, Butler, Lightly and the 7-footer Koufus, then I make OSU No. 1.

Georgetown doesn't have a key senior. Hunt is the only senior who plays for Memphis. UCLA doesn't play a senior -- if Aflallo returns, they could be in the top 3 ... if he doesn't, lower 10.

I agree with the poster who suggested that Lawson is the key for UNC. If he returns, along with EITHER Hansbrough or Wright (I think they keep Hans-travel and lose Wright), UNC is in the mix for No. 1. Without Lawson, they're second 5 ...

No way Southern Cal is in the top 10 next season. Floyd is a good coach and he's got a lot of good players, but adding Mayo is going to destroy them. Mayo will average 25 game and the team will be worse. I set the over-under on Mayo suspensions at five games.

Now, if Floyd can keep Hackett and Gibson from leaving, then 2008-09 looks bright after Mayo takes his one-man show to the NBA and Brandon Jennings (whose already a better player than Mayo -- and a far less disruptive force).

keithg
03-25-2007, 11:39 AM
3) usc -- should have beaten unc (didn't they watch tenn the night before?), only lose stewart and add my majo.


Nick Young will be a lottery pick and almost absloutely won't be back next year.

houstondukie
03-25-2007, 12:39 PM
You have to put Kansas in the top 3, arguably #1, if Wright and Rush return. Collins and Arthur were only freshmen and will be even better next year. They have a great 8 man rotation along with Robinson, Chalmers, Jackson, and Kaun. They also add a 6'10'' big man in Cole Aldrich for more depth. I'm not a big Bill Self fan, but the core of this team has been playing well with each other for a couple years now and they know how to play defense.

CDu
03-25-2007, 03:29 PM
Furthermore, who cares about preseason Top-10 lists? The polls are simply irrelevant, ESPECIALLY preseason. Talking about it in March of the previous season is even more irrelevant, given that we don't know yet who's leaving (and potentially where some key recruits are going).

For example, this year's preseason top-10 included Arizona and LSU. Good call, guys. And this year was actually a pretty GOOD year for prognosticators. Last year, Oklahoma cracked the preseason top 6, yet finished at the bottom of the top-25. Mich St was top-5, and failed to make the top-25 altogether. Kentucky and Arizona were top-10 preseason and failed to make the top-25.

Invariably, the prognosticators misjudge 2-5 teams in the top-10, and seriously neglect a few as well.

dukie8
03-25-2007, 03:42 PM
Furthermore, who cares about preseason Top-10 lists? The polls are simply irrelevant, ESPECIALLY preseason. Talking about it in March of the previous season is even more irrelevant, given that we don't know yet who's leaving (and potentially where some key recruits are going).

For example, this year's preseason top-10 included Arizona and LSU. Good call, guys. And this year was actually a pretty GOOD year for prognosticators. Last year, Oklahoma cracked the preseason top 6, yet finished at the bottom of the top-25. Mich St was top-5, and failed to make the top-25 altogether. Kentucky and Arizona were top-10 preseason and failed to make the top-25.

Invariably, the prognosticators misjudge 2-5 teams in the top-10, and seriously neglect a few as well.

if that's how you feel, then who cares about anything related to basketball? it's all pretty irrelevant in the big picture. the ap and espn polls both do a pretty poor job of reflecting reality but people on here were close to jumping off cliffs when duke fell out of them. however, these are OUR opinions -- not a bunch of clueless reporters' opinions. i agree that it is very premature at this point to be speculating about next year because nba defections will have an enormous impact and largely are unknown right now. btw, mich st was not top 5 -- they weren't even ranked preseason.

CDu
03-25-2007, 03:50 PM
if that's how you feel, then who cares about anything related to basketball? it's all pretty irrelevant in the big picture. the ap and espn polls both do a pretty poor job of reflecting reality but people on here were close to jumping off cliffs when duke fell out of them. however, these are OUR opinions -- not a bunch of clueless reporters' opinions. i agree that it is very premature at this point to be speculating about next year because nba defections will have an enormous impact and largely are unknown right now. btw, mich st was not top 5 -- they weren't even ranked preseason.

Well, for one, I wasn't one of those who was close to jumping off the cliff about dropping out of the top-25. And my enjoyment of the boards is analyzing the team's makeup and its past performance, not trying to rank the field. There is plenty to discuss if you take away preseason polls (or the polls altogether).

Also, I'm guessing you misread my post a bit, because you are incorrect in saying that Mich St was not ranked in the preseason in 2005-2006. They were in fact ranked #4 in the AP and #5 in the coaches' poll:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankingsindex?pollId=null&weekNumber=1&seasonYear=2006

johnnydakota
03-25-2007, 04:20 PM
Indiana, with DJ White and Eric Gordon could be very tough. Memphis adding Derrick Rose will be really good.