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obsesseddukefan
08-27-2008, 03:24 PM
or does it seem whe have a real shot on doing something special this season. I thought last year was a great year but after looking at the schedule, 1. I think our record will improve this year, and 2. I think it is possible that we will go far in the NCAA Tourny.

I know we will have some close games, but with the added bench this year, should we really be concerned with not having a post player? It would not suprise me if we racked up 85-90 ppg this year and in my opinion, will get us very far. What does everyone else think? Am I on drugs by thinking this way?

Wander
08-27-2008, 03:27 PM
I know we will have some close games, but with the added bench this year, should we really be concerned with not having a post player?

Yes we should.

killerleft
08-27-2008, 03:44 PM
Counting out Mr. Zoubek already? I'm not.

miramar
08-27-2008, 03:51 PM
Some teams can get away without a post player, but you still need somebody to play defense and bang the boards against the big teams. Since the women's team has just hired Robert Brickey, it might be useful to recall that Duke made the final four with him playing center, and he's 6-5. But he was a great leaper, and Danny Ferry would often play defense against the opposing centers.

A key stat to remember from last year is that Kyle Singler and DeMarcus Nelson, Duke's two top rebounders, had as many rebounds as Tyler Hansbrough, and that's something that can't be repeated.

Duke can be very successful with a smaller lineup part of the time, but I think they need major improvement in the paint. Fortunately, I think it can definitely happen.

Bob Green
08-27-2008, 04:12 PM
I believe a healthy Zoubek is the key ingredient this season. He needs to rebound, provide strong interior defense, and make free throws. I want to see Zoubek average 20+ minutes per game and put up big rebounding numbers. If he can stay on the court, his points will come. Last year, he demonstrated skill at setting screens and passing the ball. Zoubek needs to play significant minutes and get into the flow of the game.

Bluedog
08-27-2008, 04:27 PM
I think Zoubek had some really solid outings at the end of last season, and expect to see more of it. We don't need him to score a bunch of points. Just defend, rebound, and be a big body inside (just as Bob said above :) ). I have confidence in Z and agree that he will be one of the major keys for this team to succeed.

Wander
08-27-2008, 04:33 PM
Counting out Mr. Zoubek already? I'm not.

All I'm saying is that our post game is a concern. Not that our post game is hopeless, and not that we can't have a very good season.

CLT Devil
08-27-2008, 05:02 PM
If the team is counting on Z to have even a marginal season I think we're doomed...I would be very surprised if he averaged anywhere near 20 mins a game, he's a liability on both ends of the floor, especially offensive. I think his minutes will decrease if Plumbee shows us anything.

west_coast_devil
08-27-2008, 05:55 PM
If the team is counting on Z to have even a marginal season I think we're doomed...I would be very surprised if he averaged anywhere near 20 mins a game, he's a liability on both ends of the floor, especially offensive. I think his minutes will decrease if Plumbee shows us anything.

I totally agree. Although I commend Z for his effort, I just dont believe he is on par with the rest of the contributing members of the team. What I do see as a strength for the 08-09 Blue Devils, is a team with high basketball IQ and plenty of experience. Paulus is a good floor leader with a reliable outside shot. Jon Scheyer is savy and dependable, Hernderson and Singler are ready for an AA year. Thomas has hustle, and I predict that he is the MIP on this years team. Most of our bench have expeirence and know their roles. It will be interesting to see how our new guys fit in. Here is to a successful season!

Bluedog
08-27-2008, 05:59 PM
If the team is counting on Z to have even a marginal season I think we're doomed...I would be very surprised if he averaged anywhere near 20 mins a game, he's a liability on both ends of the floor, especially offensive. I think his minutes will decrease if Plumbee shows us anything.

I think the team is counting on somebody in the frontcourt to have a somewhat productive season (18-20 mpg, 4-5 rpg, playing good defense, and limited TOs). A team of only guards can only do so much...of course, we will try to ride the talent of the guards as much as possible, but having an interior presence is vital at times. Zoubek seems to be the most likely candidate, in my opinion, and I do think we need somebody to step up or else we're not going to get past the Sweet Sixteen.

Last year's stats, btw:

LT: 18.5 mpg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 TO/g, 4.2 ppg
BZ: 10.5 mpg, 3.4 rpg, 0.8 TO/g, 3.8 ppg

dukeimac
08-27-2008, 06:54 PM
I've said this before on other threads but I think contributions from multiple players can be a real asset here.

Think about it. Lets start Zo for the first 4 minutes. Hans thinks he can go around Zo and you have someone else trap. He might get out of it or make a pass but those probably are a 50/50 success rate. For 4 minutes that is good. Then come with Thomas. He is quick so putting it on the floor is a no go. Maybe a 50/50 again. Then come with say Mc for 4 minutes. Hans can't beat him off the bounce but tries once or twice with no success, maybe a 50/50 again. In this case I like having Plumlee's long arms on the floor because when he posts up Mc, Plumlee can come over and block his shot. Mc is physical so posting him up won't be real easy and long arms of Plumlee coming in from the weak side to block or alter his shot is fustrating. Then come with Olek for the next 4 minutes. Olek is too quick to let Hans post him up and Hans is too slow to go around so he has to learn a new move. Again a 50/50 success rate.

As a coach myself, ninth graders, we did something like this. The guy averaged over 20 points a game and scored 16 twice against us. But here is the success story, he worked so hard to try and get his points that most of his teammates also scored below their averages. When my post frustrated him he wanted to go outside. So I put a wing guy on him and it took him a time or two to go to the post move then we double teamed him. Once he got use to that I put a not a big but stocky guy on him, he had trouble posting up. I had this guy pick him up out by the circle and be physical with him so he couldn't just go down to post up. At one time I even put a guard on him and he got so caught up with trying to take it to him he didn't notice the double teams coming. He had 16 points and 7 & 8 TOs. By the end of the second game even his teammates were mad at him.

Running different guys at him with different skill sets will really frustrate guys like Hans. Most post players only know how to post guys up and using guys that can counter that will be frustrating when you constantly put different skill sets on him. And now Hans wants to work on his outside shooting. So when he can't post he'll go right to the outside shot.

jv001
08-28-2008, 09:13 AM
I believe a healthy Zoubek is the key ingredient this season. He needs to rebound, provide strong interior defense, and make free throws. I want to see Zoubek average 20+ minutes per game and put up big rebounding numbers. If he can stay on the court, his points will come. Last year, he demonstrated skill at setting screens and passing the ball. Zoubek needs to play significant minutes and get into the flow of the game.

Defense wins games. With Jon and Greg getting most of the minutes in the back court, someone must be able to help out in the post. They often get beat off the dribble and then our big men get in foul trouble trying to help out. I do believe that Brian can give help defense when they are in the game. The key is Brian being healthy as Bob stated in his post. We need Zoubs healthy. I really like our depth and I hope Coach K uses it the entire season.

Huh?
08-28-2008, 09:53 AM
I think LT needs to step it up, Z just doesn't fit in with our run, run, run mentality. LT can run the floor and get back on D. I hope I'm wrong about Z and yall are right, but I'm not sold. Super stoked about the season though, big things WILL happen this year, I can feel it!

moonpie23
08-28-2008, 02:29 PM
I know we will have some close games, but with the added bench this year, should we really be concerned with not having a post player?


not as long as we don't have to play anyone that has a post player...

mgtr
08-28-2008, 02:46 PM
If Zoubek is healthy this year, and can average 15-20 minutes per game, I will be thrilled. We can fill in with other players the rest of the game, and should do well. And, for his own sake, I just hope he is healthy this year.

obsesseddukefan
08-28-2008, 03:00 PM
The reason I ask if we should really be concerned, is because I dont expect Z to get 15-20 min. If anything I see us roatating Plummee, Z, Singler, and LT constantly to go with matchups. I don't see up getting into as much foul trouble in that area as well.

SMO
08-28-2008, 03:04 PM
not as long as we don't have to play anyone that has a post player...

Don't we have 4-5 guys that are 6'8" or taller?

WeepingThomasHill
08-28-2008, 04:38 PM
Bob Green wrote:

I believe a healthy Zoubek is the key ingredient this season. He needs to rebound, provide strong interior defense, and make free throws. I want to see Zoubek average 20+ minutes per game and put up big rebounding numbers. If he can stay on the court, his points will come. Last year, he demonstrated skill at setting screens and passing the ball. Zoubek needs to play significant minutes and get into the flow of the game.

==
Zoubek at 20 mpg a game scares me, especially if we also have Thomas on the court in an attempt to go big. I agree that he needs to provide boards, interior defense and free throws. As of now, he is deficient in all three aspects, in my opinion. Perhaps it was the injuries, but we can't throw him the ball on offense if he cannot execute a move and/or convert free throws. He needs to defend without fouling. He needs to catch the ball cleanly without walking, and our guards need to remember to give him a good entry pass. Still waiting for him to emerge as the next Mike Gminksi...

DevilCastDownfromDurham
08-28-2008, 06:20 PM
We may never know whether or not Z was worth the "greatest true C since Gminski" hype. But since he's lost two summers and chunks of two seasons of development (conditioning, weight-training, skills, etc.), I wonder if it's reasonable to expect him to reach whatever potential was projected when we were extrapolating 4 seasons of steady development.

At this point, Z is what he is: a big, smart, hard-working guy that makes us all proud of his effort and desire. Maybe he'll have an Abdelnaby-like breakthrough if/when he's finally healthy, but I don't think we should, or need to, count on it. A career as a solid role-player/backup at Duke is nothing to sneeze at. At all. That said, I agree with others that he can be a major part of our answer at the 5. We have depth and versatility in a major way and I love the idea of wearing down teams/keeping them off balance with a variety of lineups.

More to the point, we don't need a superstar C, we just need consistency. The OP's point that we have major talent at the other 4 positions is right on. And we finally have real depth, athleticism, and experience for the first time since the 2004-6 bloodbath recruiting classes. We're stacked with blue-chip guys at 4 positions and have a lot of interesting option at the 5. We're starting off as a clear #2 in the ACC, but I don't see any reason we can't be a #1 seed and FF contender by the end of the season. For the first time in a while I'm excited, rather than apprehensive, about our chances.

mo.st.dukie
08-28-2008, 06:41 PM
Zoubek at 20 mpg a game scares me, especially if we also have Thomas on the court in an attempt to go big. I agree that he needs to provide boards, interior defense and free throws. As of now, he is deficient in all three aspects, in my opinion. Perhaps it was the injuries, but we can't throw him the ball on offense if he cannot execute a move and/or convert free throws. He needs to defend without fouling. He needs to catch the ball cleanly without walking, and our guards need to remember to give him a good entry pass. Still waiting for him to emerge as the next Mike Gminksi...

Well, Coach K said in his summer press conference that if Zoubek was healthy last season he may have been a starter or at least getting 20mpg. If Coach K believe in Brian then I believe in Brian. The keys for him are health and conditioning, if those two things are good then I think he can be a productive post player this season. IMO, if Lance is playing the majority of the minutes at center I don't see us getting very deep in the post season. He hasn't gained any weight in the offseason, is more of a face-up four and should be a back up to Kyle.

Devils Rock
08-28-2008, 08:02 PM
Zoubek at 20 mpg a game scares me, especially if we also have Thomas on the court in an attempt to go big. I agree that he needs to provide boards, interior defense and free throws. As of now, he is deficient in all three aspects, in my opinion.

Zoubek can't rebound? Are you serious? While I agree that Z has some offensive limitations, he is clearly the best rebounder on the team. He obviously has had injury and foul issues that keep him off the floor, but if he could stay on the floor, he would give us the rebounder we need in the post. We don't need stellar offense from the post since we can get that from anywhere else on the floor.

Take a look at the numbers that Bluedog was kind enough to post earlier -

BZ: 10.5 mpg, 3.4 rpg, 0.8 TO/g, 3.8 ppg

If you multiply the minutes by three (31.5 would be pretty common minutes for a starter and key player under K), you get 10.2 rebounds a game to go along with 11.4 points. I'll bet there are fewer than 5 players in coach K's Duke career that averaged over 10 rebounds in 31.5 minutes. Even if we assume that Zoubek will be limited to 20 (let's call it 21 for easy math) mpg, I'd happily take his 6.8 rebounds/game since that is more than anyone averaged last year regardless of minutes.

I'm not saying z is a basketball God, but let's be honest about what he may or may not bring to the team this year.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
08-28-2008, 08:15 PM
Dude, Pocius averaged 4 points and 2.3 boards in 8 minutes (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=498). By that logic, if K would just play him for 40mins he'd be a 20 point scorer and pull down more than 11 boards a game. Maybe all the "play Marty" folks were on to something . . . ;)

Seriously, I'm cheering Brian on and I absolutely agree that he's our best hope for rebounding, but just multiplying numbers doesn't tell the story.

CLT Devil
08-28-2008, 08:27 PM
You use statistics like a drunk uses a lightpost....for support, rather than illumination.

Seriously though, no offense given, just had to bust out that line.

I just think Z is too prone to foul. I also have a conspiracy theory that the refs were looked to call travels on him whenever they could. It seems like he had a few early in the year and the Acc refs made it a 'point of emphasis' to keep their eyes on him. Whatever it was, I felt like something bad always happened when he was in the game; a foul, a travel, an easy reb picked ripped out of his hands because he brought the ball too low, a missed layup opportunity, a travel.

I honestly hope I'm wrong, and he's improved.

Devils Rock
08-28-2008, 09:03 PM
Dude, Pocius averaged 4 points and 2.3 boards in 8 minutes (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=498). By that logic, if K would just play him for 40mins he'd be a 20 point scorer and pull down more than 11 boards a game. Maybe all the "play Marty" folks were on to something . . . ;)

Seriously, I'm cheering Brian on and I absolutely agree that he's our best hope for rebounding, but just multiplying numbers doesn't tell the story.

I'll give you your due. I'm sure some of Brian's numbers came at garbage time and I think it is true that just because a player can produce a certain numer of points/boards etc. in x minutes doesn't necessarily mean that he would actully be able to produce at the same level over the full course of a game. I think my primary beef was with the comment from WTHill saying that Zoubek has been "deficient" as a rebounder. WTHill did not provide any basis for the remark and I don't think it accurately adressed Z's strenths and weaknesses.

On a seperate note, I'm not sure Pocius couldn't average 20 pts in a full 40m minutes - but it would be superseded by the 30 that his man would score on him.:rolleyes:

DevilCastDownfromDurham
08-28-2008, 09:27 PM
I take your general point and 100% agree with it: Z is, for better or worse, our best hope for a genuine "traditional" post presence this year. I'd love to see Plumlee or Czyz hit the ground running, but the list of freshman post players that do so is pretty small.

I think your crack about Marty illustrates the issue with projecting Z's production with more PT. It's not that his numbers came in garbage time so much as I haven't seen him able to sustain performance over 20-25 minutes. Often he get tired, he gets into foul trouble, etc. and needs to come out. Just as often the weak points in his game put him at a serious disadvantage in terms of matchups. You're right that his strengths are significant and shouldn't be overlooked, but every minute he's on the court we get the weaknesses as well.

Just like Marty could (maybe) put up those numbers at the cost of major defensive trouble, so Z could play 25 mins, but at some very serious costs in terms of wearing down and bad matchups. Maybe Z will make the leap this year (missing the summer with injury worries me but we've seen it before from other guys), maybe Duke will go for a "40 Minutes of Pottymouth" press with LT (Jumbo mentioned that last Spring and I think it's a really cool idea that I'd love to hear him elaborate on), or maybe we'll use a post-by-committee (worked OK for the Bulls a few years back). Time will tell, but I'm excited to watch.

gep
08-29-2008, 12:20 AM
Whatever it was, I felt like something bad always happened when he was in the game; a foul, a travel, an easy reb picked ripped out of his hands because he brought the ball too low, a missed layup opportunity, a travel.

Every time I read a comment about this, I'm reminded of the UNC game in which Brian essentially shut down Hans in the 1st quarter. I admit I had the same thoughts as you when Brian started that game, but he really played well. If he can re-capture that, he's should be that missing piece. GO DUKE!!!

ice-9
08-29-2008, 07:12 AM
Well, Coach K said in his summer press conference that if Zoubek was healthy last season he may have been a starter or at least getting 20mpg. If Coach K believe in Brian then I believe in Brian. The keys for him are health and conditioning, if those two things are good then I think he can be a productive post player this season. IMO, if Lance is playing the majority of the minutes at center I don't see us getting very deep in the post season. He hasn't gained any weight in the offseason, is more of a face-up four and should be a back up to Kyle.

I agree with this. If things are going well and players play at their natural positions, things should shake out to the following:

PG: Paulus, Nolan
SG: Scheyer, Elliot, Pocius
SF: Henderson, McClure
PF: Singler, Thomas, Olek
C: Zoubek, Plumlee

Of course players can go up/down a level. I.e. I can see Nolan at SG, Scheyer at PG, Henderson at SG, Singler at C, etc.

I think Thomas is a FAR better fit at the PF position where he can use his athleticism and speed to fullest advantage. Hopefully with a healthy and effective Zoubek and Plumlee to backup Zoubek Thomas can play the 4.

elvis14
08-29-2008, 09:11 AM
or does it seem whe have a real shot on doing something special this season. I thought last year was a great year but after looking at the schedule, 1. I think our record will improve this year, and 2. I think it is possible that we will go far in the NCAA Tourny.

I know we will have some close games, but with the added bench this year, should we really be concerned with not having a post player? It would not surprise me if we racked up 85-90 ppg this year and in my opinion, will get us very far. What does everyone else think? Am I on drugs by thinking this way?

I've been trying to keep quiet about it but I feel like this is finally the year that we get back to playing at a really high level and have a real shot at a special season. This is the year we finally recover from having to refill the pipeline. I know lots of folks think Z might be the key but I think all we need is for Z, Lance or Miles to be decent at the 5. If any of them have a good season, that's a bonus. I say that not because I don't think any of those guys are capable being more than decent. I've been watching Lance start for 2 years just waiting for him to break out and I've been waiting for Z to get healthy and get more PT because he changes the game when he's in there. I say we only need to be decent at the 5 because we have so much potential at all the other spots. Examples: Nolan is quick with the ball and a good on the ball defender, Jon is just good all around and should be even better this year, Singler has such a great inside/outside game, Marty is back :D, Elliot sounds like he'll fit right in and Olek sounds like he'll be fun to watch...then there's Gerald. To me Henderson is the key. He's the guy that takes us from being good to really good. I say that because IF he can take his game to the next level and dominate, it opens up so much for other guys. Turn G loose and teams have to try so hard to stop him that everyone else gets easier opportunities. If a team is playing man to man, have G play pick and roll basketball with Singler and Z (anyone notice how well Z rolls to the rim off a pick and makes himself a great target?). Teams play Zone, have G penetrate to the middle an hit that mid-ranger jumper, when they collapse...open 3's and open guys on the baseline. Add that bit of G-love to our already potent offense and things get exciting.

I know football season just started and I'm looking forward to waching my favorite football teams play and I just drafted by fantasy football team but the thing that has the me most fired up about sports this fall/winter is Duke Hoops (as usual).

jv001
08-29-2008, 10:07 AM
Well, Coach K said in his summer press conference that if Zoubek was healthy last season he may have been a starter or at least getting 20mpg. If Coach K believe in Brian then I believe in Brian. The keys for him are health and conditioning, if those two things are good then I think he can be a productive post player this season. IMO, if Lance is playing the majority of the minutes at center I don't see us getting very deep in the post season. He hasn't gained any weight in the offseason, is more of a face-up four and should be a back up to Kyle.

And Lance has not shown that he has any kind of a offensive game. Can he shoot from over 5 feet from the basket? I have not seen that he can. I like his defense on the perimeter but not under the basket. He is not the answer to the number 5 position.

ACCBBallFan
08-29-2008, 09:44 PM
I agree with this. If things are going well and players play at their natural positions, things should shake out to the following:

PG: Paulus, Nolan
SG: Scheyer, Elliot, Pocius
SF: Henderson, McClure
PF: Singler, Thomas, Olek
C: Zoubek, Plumlee

Of course players can go up/down a level. I.e. I can see Nolan at SG, Scheyer at PG, Henderson at SG, Singler at C, etc.

I think Thomas is a FAR better fit at the PF position where he can use his athleticism and speed to fullest advantage. Hopefully with a healthy and effective Zoubek and Plumlee to backup Zoubek Thomas can play the 4.

While I agree that would be better for Duke if Lance were Singler's backup rather than starting or reserve center, it is highly unlikely that Miles or OC will see any more PT in ACC games than Marty has to date.

So Duke's only hope is for Zoubek to be starting center and Lance to be his backup, with Miles and Olek available when fouls mount.

On a side note, I do think that if Marty were a starter which is unlikely, he could approach 20 points as he did when he had to fill in for Henderson. The key would be whether he could hold his opponent below 20.

captmojo
08-30-2008, 09:02 AM
All Zoubek needs to do is learn to control that temper and watch out for getting "T"ed up against Wake. :rolleyes:

obsesseddukefan
08-30-2008, 10:18 AM
I have to admit I would get really nervous when Z would come in the game,but not as nervous as I get when LT comes in. I cringe. He has great heart and speed, but the post above nailed it...I really dont think he can shoot past 5 feet.

BD80
08-30-2008, 06:38 PM
...I really dont think [LT] can shoot past 5 feet.

SO? He can score in transition and score near the basket - sounds good to me! His active body and tremendous spirit are a huge asset to the team.

I'd rather have LT than a guy who mistakenly believed he could shoot!

ACCBBallFan
08-30-2008, 08:01 PM
While I agree none of Zoubek, Lance, Olek or Miles necessarily have to be able to shoot, they do have to defend the paint, screen, rebound and get a few garbage put backs while not being a turnover machine. Hitting free throws and picking up some assists which Lance really needs to work on would be added bonuses.

Realistically, Zoubek is the only one with the size and with a couple of injury shortened years under his belt, he should be learning the Duke system better this year and especially next year.

Lance simply does not have the size and Miles and OC are most likely too raw. They each have something to offer and if they can break even leveraging their speed, height, dunking ability whatever, they do not have to be the Duke player that out duels the opponent, just don't screw up the lead Duke has form the 1 thru 4 spots.

In OOC at least, Olek should give the Cameron Crazies something to cheer for with his thunder dunks. I would say he has the second best chance of excelling as post defender. Even though he apparently has little court sense, that can be taught and he certainly has the athleticism, and the weight versus what Lance and Miles have.

Still think the order this year will be Zoubek and Lance primarily with either Miles or OC if fouls mount. Even though they are seniors next year, Zoubs and Lance will be pushed for PT more by Olek, Miles and possibly Josh Smith.

ACCBBallFan
08-30-2008, 10:36 PM
and possibly Josh Smith becoming a true post presence in class of 2010.

mgtr
08-30-2008, 11:01 PM
I have seen LT play the role of "placeholder." He has been at center because there was no one else. With (hopefully) a healthy Zoubek, and limited minutes from Plumlee and Czyz, maybe LT can indeed backup Singler (a more natural position for him). And if Singler can get out of the middle, and skip playing 35 minutes per game, he may have some legs left in March.
However, the above may be just wishful thinking with more ifs than anything.