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DukeBlood
02-28-2007, 10:49 AM
Now that his season is over, Does anyone have a link to his season stats?

I know it doesnt matter much, but I believe he will go up in the rankings(scout.com and rivals.com). From what i have heard/read he has been Oak Hill's best player. I dont believe he gets the respect because of Jennings, Vaughn and Legion.

Also, If you know. King and Singler Stats?

Deslok
02-28-2007, 11:09 AM
The McDonalds All America page http://www.mcdonaldsallamerican.com/ has the basic averages for each player:
Smith 22.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 3.2 SPG
King 27.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG
Singler 29.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG

Since Smith is the only Oak Hill McD's I can't compare him to his teammates stat wise. If you want to try to assemble the data, all the Oak Hill box scores can be found at http://www.oak-hill.net/athletics/gold/gold_updates.htm

DavidBenAkiva
02-28-2007, 02:40 PM
I'm not really a stats guy (except when it comes to baseball), but those are some really big numbers for our kids in a 32 minute game! On Smith being the only McD All-American from his team, the other top-teir talent in the backcourt, Brandon Jennings, is a Junior and will be going to USC next year. He'll be a McDAA next year. Oak Hill always has one McDAA ever year (Tywon Lawson in '06). Amazing.

I also didn't realize how well-rounded Smith's game was, though I've watched him play a couple of times. That's a lot of rebounds, assists, and steals. He almost seems to be an afterthought on the court at times for his high school team, and I think that he will blend in very well for us. Is it right to get this excited about next year when it's still February?

Time flies like an arrow
Fruit flies like a banana

mcdukie
02-28-2007, 03:20 PM
I saw on YouTube the highlights of Oak Hill vs. Singler's school....We are getting 2 very talented young men. I had saw a clip before of Singler and was only moderately impressed. After that clip, I see why they make comparisons to Dirk and Bird, Singler can flat out do it and someone MUST, I repeat MUST take a seat. Nolan can do it all including put it on the floor and attack, something we are desparately missing. He can even play the point. The future is very bright and we could be very good in the future.

Clipsfan
02-28-2007, 04:57 PM
The McDonalds All America page http://www.mcdonaldsallamerican.com/ has the basic averages for each player:
Smith 22.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 3.2 SPG
King 27.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG
Singler 29.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG

Since Smith is the only Oak Hill McD's I can't compare him to his teammates stat wise. If you want to try to assemble the data, all the Oak Hill box scores can be found at http://www.oak-hill.net/athletics/gold/gold_updates.htm

I think that I saw something about Jennings averaging a ridiculous 11 or so assists a game during one of the high school games I watched on ESPN. I also think that his totals would be higher if his teammates could catch some of the passes he whips across the court. I know that he said he'd go to USC, but I've heard that it may not happen. I hope not, I like USC being weak.

dukestheheat
03-26-2007, 05:31 PM
ok,

what's the word on nolan smith outside of what we see on bob gibbons' rankings or the espn rankings?

espn, for example, says he is very competitive and can play either of the two guard positions, and the general view here on DBR is that he's a very good defender, a shooter with speed, but NOT A viable candidate to take over the starting point guard spot (and i'm putting many threads together over an extended period of time to bring up that synopsis of Smith.....).

based on what i'm reading from espn, at least, he's got the goods to take over that spot for Duke next year. and, I feel that Paulus could serve us so very well as an established shooting guard; I was very impressed with his shooting as the year progressed.

what's your opinion on Smith at PG for our team?

dth.

cato
03-26-2007, 06:13 PM
ok,

what's the word on nolan smith outside of what we see on bob gibbons' rankings or the espn rankings?

espn, for example, says he is very competitive and can play either of the two guard positions, and the general view here on DBR is that he's a very good defender, a shooter with speed, but NOT A viable candidate to take over the starting point guard spot (and i'm putting many threads together over an extended period of time to bring up that synopsis of Smith.....).

based on what i'm reading from espn, at least, he's got the goods to take over that spot for Duke next year. and, I feel that Paulus could serve us so very well as an established shooting guard; I was very impressed with his shooting as the year progressed.

what's your opinion on Smith at PG for our team?

dth.

Not going to happen.

hurleyfor3
03-26-2007, 06:23 PM
Is Nolan Smith what you get when you crossbreed Nolan Richardson with Dean Smith?

A-Tex Devil
03-26-2007, 06:33 PM
I'm curious about this too. Would it be accurate to say that Nolan Smith is more Daniel Ewing than William Avery? Meaning an undersized 2 that can score and occasionally handle the ball vs. a shoot first point guard who can get to the hole and be a primary ball handler?

Clipsfan
03-26-2007, 06:36 PM
I'm curious about this too. Would it be accurate to say that Nolan Smith is more Daniel Ewing than William Avery? Meaning an undersized 2 that can score and occasionally handle the ball vs. a shoot first point guard who can get to the hole and be a primary ball handler?

It's really tough to tell watching him play, as I've only seen the HS games which ESPN has shown. The problem with those is that he has one of the best PGs in the country (Jennings) on his team, so he doesn't handle the ball that much. From what I saw, he is a good slasher and has a fairly good 3 point shot, and I didn't see anything which contradicts the statements that he can handle the ball. However, I don't see Paulus being moved away from the PG spot.

dukestheheat
03-26-2007, 06:55 PM
clipsfan,

well, as far as him taking over the PG spot.......IF Smith can play the defense like espn claims that he can (and slash and hit the shot as you say), he's going to be mighty attractive when we're trying to slow down a certain Mr. Lawson from the lesser shade of blue, or anyone else for that matter.

dth.

FireOgilvie
03-26-2007, 06:59 PM
I saw him when he came to Cameron this year. He plays with Jennings, the number 1 point guard in the junior class, but he still handled the ball at the top of the key many times throughout the game (especially late). I distinctly remember him running through the Mater Dei (including Taylor King) defense in an attempt to run out the clock. He has excellent ball-handling skills, in my opinion. Someone said he played some PG his junior year? He's much faster, more nimble, and athletic than Scheyer (when he played this year). However, I don't expect him to start over Paulus at any point. He will be a very worthy back-up and will challenge Paulus in practice to raise his game/keep his starting role.

dockfan
03-26-2007, 06:59 PM
I'm curious about this too. Would it be accurate to say that Nolan Smith is more Daniel Ewing than William Avery? Meaning an undersized 2 that can score and occasionally handle the ball vs. a shoot first point guard who can get to the hole and be a primary ball handler?

From what I have seen of Nolan, I think the Daniel Ewing comparison is spot-on. Nolan is a good shooter, can defend multiple perimeter spots, and is very quick. But he probably won't be a full-time PG right away at Duke, though he will be able to spell Paulus there (but I wouldn't count out Scheyer as the backup PG next year). Nolan projects to be a PG at the professional level, and Daniel Ewing's role with the Clippers is similar to what Nolan's might be eventually.

Nolan might be a little bit better as a slasher and finisher than Daniel. But he doesn't have the same pull-up game as Daniel. He also appears to be a little taller, longer, and stronger than Daniel was as a HS senior/college freshman. Regardless, Nolan will be a great addition to the team.

FireOgilvie
03-26-2007, 07:05 PM
The aspect of Nolan Smith that makes me the most excited is that he is an excellent leader and captain on a team of all-stars. This is something that Duke can use next year/in the future. Oak Hill is absolutely loaded with talent. I seem to remember hearing that Smith was a captain both his junior and senior years.

SoCalDukeFan
03-26-2007, 07:16 PM
I have not seen Smith play.

However he should be very helpful, especially on defense.

Paulus will be the starting point guard but Smith will see plenty of action.

SoCal

DBFAN
03-26-2007, 07:48 PM
I had a friend who is a big North Carolina fan who saw him play in some kind of tournament, and he said by the time smith is done we wont be talking about JJ anymore. This person is a smart basketball fan, I think that Smith could turn out to be our best freshman next year.

JBDuke
03-26-2007, 07:56 PM
Is Nolan Smith what you get when you crossbreed Nolan Richardson with Dean Smith?

No, that combo would result in Forty Minutes of Nose Hair.

Dukefan4Life
03-26-2007, 08:17 PM
I have see a few videos on nolan and i liked what i saw! i dont think he will take greg"s place but i do think with his skill he should and must get alot of mins this year! he can provide an instant spark of offense, with slashing and a good pull up jumper! i cant wait till next season :D

Troublemaker
03-26-2007, 08:23 PM
No, that combo would result in Forty Minutes of Nose Hair.

:D
.......................

yancem
03-26-2007, 08:57 PM
I was thinking about starting a new thread but my question/comment fits pretty well here.

There has been a fair amount of talk recently about Paulus' lack of driving and pentrating ability. My concern was more with his passing. When I watched him in the McD game and during his freshman year I thought that he could end up as the best passer Duke's had since Hurley. He lead the league in assists as a freshman and had a that one 15 assist game. I felt like he might come close to the 1000 assist career mark.

But this year his passes were tentative and often telegraphed. I don't know if his foot injury affected his confidence or if his lack of familiarity with the young team made him hesitent but he clearly was not the same playmaker as last year. I wonder if with some film study and summer ball with the team he might be able to get his assist numbers at or above his freshman numbers and cut down on his turnovers. Maybe then people will seem him as the dynamic point gaurd he was predicted to be coming out of high school.

What do you think?

dukestheheat
03-26-2007, 09:33 PM
yancem,

imo, the reason why Paulus led the ACC his freshman year in assists was b/c he was, more often than not, throwing the ball to either JJ Redick or Shelden Williams, who could score a lot of points, and now both those guys have their shirts hanging in 'the Cameron' (as Brent Musberger used to refer to our hallowed hall, elevating it's already lofty status by providing the on-air article 'the').

i love greg's passing and i see a lot of his football prowess in his passes. i was a quarterback myself back in the day and when it came to playing point guard during basketball season, i could thread that needle and i was able to draw from my football experience to help get those passes where i needed them to go. the same acuity needed to hit a receiver in football is closely akin to that needed to hit another player in transition.

he shines with his shot however; seriously, after reading about Smith on espn, and reading the many posters here who know about his game, i wouldn't be at all surprised at seeing him get more and more time at PG as the season progresses, and FireOgilvie is correct in that if he's running Oak Hill as a captain and doing it like he's done it, the guy is ready for Duke and we sorely need a talent like that at that guard position.

dth.

mgtr
03-26-2007, 10:40 PM
I believe that GP will remain our point guard, but he is a competitive guy. Nothing stokes the fire more than a little competition creeping in. It can only help.

crimsondevil
03-27-2007, 01:11 AM
If Smith is as good a defender as some are making out, rest assured he will get some minutes next year. Plus, if we're going to be playing a four-guard line-up some of the time that means more minutes to go around for the perimeter players. But be the primary PG over Paulus? No.

yancem
03-27-2007, 08:59 AM
DTH

I agree that GP's assists numbers his freshman year were helped by having two all americans catching the passes but he still had to make the correct reads and deliver the passes. I could be wrong but I didn't see a lot of bobbled passes or missed layups this year. What I saw was a lot of tentative and errant or telegraphed passes. Those same passes would have been turnovers his freshman year no matter how good JJ and Sheldon were.

Like I said originally, I don't know if the problem was caused by the injury or by lack of confidence in his teammates. I just hope that he figures out over the summer because I feel that he can be an all american caliber point guard if he returns to form. While I agree with many posters that his shot was his strength this year, I think that his strength can be his ability to run the offense. We just didn't see it this year.

mcdukie
03-27-2007, 09:09 AM
Nolan has never really primarily played the point. I think in time he will be a point, especially if he wants a shot at the league. The problem I have is that means that we are still in the same place as far as a point guard goes. We still need someone to break down the D with their dribble and guard a quick point guard. That is a major concern.

The Gordog
03-27-2007, 10:29 AM
It's a lot easier to get assist numbers up when you are passing to JJ and Shel than to this year's team. Next year Paulus will look like a much better passer, barring significant injury.

ikiru36
03-27-2007, 02:46 PM
DTH

I agree that GP's assists numbers his freshman year were helped by having two all americans catching the passes but he still had to make the correct reads and deliver the passes. I could be wrong but I didn't see a lot of bobbled passes or missed layups this year. What I saw was a lot of tentative and errant or telegraphed passes. Those same passes would have been turnovers his freshman year no matter how good JJ and Sheldon were.

Like I said originally, I don't know if the problem was caused by the injury or by lack of confidence in his teammates. I just hope that he figures out over the summer because I feel that he can be an all american caliber point guard if he returns to form. While I agree with many posters that his shot was his strength this year, I think that his strength can be his ability to run the offense. We just didn't see it this year.

I agree that Greg was really a different player this year, than previous. Just to re-inforce this, the style of PG Greg played as this year would never have a game with 15 assists and 3 TO's as he did in a game his freshman year, or his 8 games with a 5:1 or better ratio his freshman year as well. Or his 9 assists to 1 TO in the McDonald's A-A game.

While I believe that he was generally healthy while he played this year, there was some degree of explosiveness as well as confidence missing that he'd earlier demonstrated (and which will hopefully return with a good summer and a fresh start next year).

That being said, during his Freshman year he was overly prone to struggling with turnovers, tossing "lazy" or forcing difficult passes at times (some of which are not that typical of 'pure' point guards which perhaps he is not). But this is something which he can improve upon and which will also naturally improve as the cast around him gets increasingly comfortable in the motion offense.

Not many of us, I imagine, expected Greg to improve his shooting much, let alone as markedly as he demonstrated this year going from a glaring weakness (fg 37.3%, 3pt. 31.4%) to an impressive strength (fg 45.6%, 3pt. 45.0%). And that was despite his injuries, while having fewer other offensive weapons, and while nearly doubling his shots attempted. Let's give him serious credit for that and not discount the possibility that he's going to be a player who is good at acknowleding and addressing weaknesses and improving himself accordingly (especially during the off-season).

I'm not counting on it, and I appreciate what the current iteration of Greg brings to our team, but I can at least imagine him improving areas of his game which will help our team next year and make him a more complete player as a PG.

And I look forward to Nolan Smith giving us another scorer and ball-handler to spell Greg, but as importantly, to push him in practice as he'll develop further by being able to play against quick, active pressure on other than just game day.

mapei
03-27-2007, 02:58 PM
Good points by ikiru. Everybody points to how Greg led the league in assists as a freshman, but seldom mentions that he also either led the league in turnovers or was close to it. His A/T ratio was 7th, certainly not bad, but not #1 either. A/T is a much more meaningful stat IMO than looking at assists only.

Classof06
03-27-2007, 02:58 PM
I believe that GP will remain our point guard, but he is a competitive guy. Nothing stokes the fire more than a little competition creeping in. It can only help.

This is spot on. I think we will learn everything we need to learn about Greg Paulus next year. We'll learn whether or not he can deal with competition and pressure, we'll see whether the first half or the second half of this season was a fluke, and we'll figure out who is going to lead this team over the next couple of years. I don't see Coach K giving Nolan the chance to start freely, but I do believe Krzyzewski will always play/start the people who give us the best chance to win. If Duhon can be benched for sub par play, then Paulus can be as well. Personally, Smith is the freshman I'm most excited about, though all three kids clearly have loads of potential. I think we sorely lacked a kid to spell Paulus, and teams (most notably VCU) exploited the fact that Greg didn't have a viable backup. Even if Smith isn't a true PG, he looks like he's much closer to being one than Scheyer. Not to mention he brings instant athleticsm (that which is definitely needed), moreso than Singler or King. Lastly, if nothing else, it makes us better than last year in that we have a secondary ball handler; Scheyer was a wing who was forced to handle the ball. I am very excited to have Nolan and can't wait to see what he does.

Beezer7
03-27-2007, 09:19 PM
I have seen it mentioned that Nolan wears a size 18 shoe and he's currently approx. 6'2. Is he expected to grow a few more inches? If he happens to grow to 6'5 or so and he maintains his coordination....watch out!

DukeBlood
07-12-2007, 02:45 AM
I keep reading that he needs to bulk up. When Oak Hill was on ESPN, He looked better built then Scheyer.

Scout.com has Nolan as 6'3 170lbs
Espn.com has Jon as 6'5 180lbs

In all fairness those havent been updated for a while, Nolans size and weight have been listed as that since he committed to Duke about a year ago. I imagine he put on ATLEAST 5 more lbs, if not 10+. Havent watched Jon's physical attributes that closely because I could watch him play every game.

Anyway, The question is.

Is Nolan a little better built then Jon? Some of you keep saying he will get pushed around. Jon didnt get pushed around that much(That i can remember) and he needs to bulk up.

Bob Green
07-12-2007, 05:42 AM
The physical attributes we need Nolan Smith to possess are speed and latteral quickness.

I agree with you that Jon Scheyer did not get pushed around as a Freshman. Actually, Jon is more athletic than the average fan appears willing to admit.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Saratoga2
07-12-2007, 07:38 AM
The physical attributes we need Nolan Smith to possess are speed and latteral quickness.

I agree with you that Jon Scheyer did not get pushed around as a Freshman. Actually, Jon is more athletic than the average fan appears willing to admit.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

In addition, I would say that quick reflexes and wide floor vision are needed by someone playing guard, particularly at the point.

Experience Nolan will get, he appears to have shooting touch and he has a decent handle. He reminds me a little of Daniel Ewing in body type and with his other skills. Whether his handle surpasses Ewing or his shooting touch is better remains to be seen. I really like what I see and think he might actually challenge for a starting spot by the end of the year.

dukestheheat
07-12-2007, 08:37 AM
DukeBlood-

I totally agree with Saratoga2's assessment of Smith in that he will certainly challenge for a starting spot on Duke this year.

He is very highly athletic. His is super quick off the dribble and a superb defender. He will immediately help our perimeter defense and our floor game in transition. He can dunk with authority, and he has experience running the premier high school program in the USA. And, the crown jewel in my opinion, is that having him at PG opens Paulus to do what he does best: shoot the basketball.

my denarii, dth.

duketaylor
07-12-2007, 10:36 AM
I've seen Nolan twice and really think he'll get lots of time at PG, either spelling or Greg or letting him slide to the 2. Hard to keep Nolan off the court with everything he brings.

Clipsfan
07-12-2007, 12:56 PM
DukeBlood-

I totally agree with Saratoga2's assessment of Smith in that he will certainly challenge for a starting spot on Duke this year.

He is very highly athletic. His is super quick off the dribble and a superb defender. He will immediately help our perimeter defense and our floor game in transition. He can dunk with authority, and he has experience running the premier high school program in the USA. And, the crown jewel in my opinion, is that having him at PG opens Paulus to do what he does best: shoot the basketball.

my denarii, dth.

Did he really run the program at Oak Hill? I know that he was not the point guard (Jennings is one of the best PGs in the rising senior class) although he was captain. Does running the program mean being a leader or being the PG?

Classof06
07-12-2007, 04:12 PM
Haha, I love it. Six weeks ago, I was talking about Nolan being capable of starting and people thought I was insane. I didn't sweat it because I know I was in the minority, being able to see Nolan play about 4 times this past season. But I think some of you are starting to realize what I've been saying; that Nolan is going to play significant minutes, at the very very least. Duketaylor hit it right on the head when he said it's going to be mighty hard for K to keep him off the floor. This is especially true if Paulus doesn't respond in what I think is a critical stage of his Duke career.

There's been some speculation as to whether Nolan can run PG, so let me end all of that. Nolan can play either the 1 or 2 with no problem; he's the textbook definition of a combo guard.

And with all due respect to Daniel Ewing, Smith is probably 2-3x more explosive. As someone mentioned earlier this week, he's the quickest guard we've had since Duhon.

dukestheheat
07-12-2007, 06:50 PM
Clipsfan-

I'd read that Smith had a captain's role on the team, and had done it very well, and also that he played a significant role at the guard position for Oak Hill.

dth.

ACCBBallFan
07-12-2007, 06:50 PM
I've seen Nolan twice and really think he'll get lots of time at PG, either spelling or Greg or letting him slide to the 2. Hard to keep Nolan off the court with everything he brings.
I have not seen Nolan Smith as much as some of you but I tend to agree with Chuck and others who say Nolan is the real deal too.

Problem is same can be said for:

Paulus whether he is the PG or the SG due to his fierce leadership and new found 3 ball,

Scheyer due to his court sense and if he can get his shot off quicker his legendary ability to score lots of points in 75 seconds,

Nelson due to his defense, quickness, rebounding and experience,

Henderson due to his athleticism, and ability to attack the basket on both ends, and

Maybe even Marty since his defense appears better and apparently he would have played more if not for the ankle injury, as he showed when Henderson was suspended.

That's already counting wingers Singler and King as forwards because Duke is height challenged.

So it kind of boils down to if Nolan is as good as advertised does his PT take away from Scheyer/Marty/King or from Dave/Lance/Zoubek.

Rather than a take-away it is actually a plus, if in small doses, for Nelson who often faded in second half and Scheyer who wore down at end of year.

Having Smith as the PG and Paulus as the SG does address the concern Troublemaker mentioned about having to pressure the ball to prevent entry passes to the dominant bigs.

So if Nolan Smith is just too good to keep off the floor, maybe the answer is to put Duke's second heaviest guy Henderson at the 4 and Singler at the 5, when Nolan plays a full court pressure defense,

With Zoubek and King sometimes seeing limited action since they are too slow for this style.

Smith-Scheyer
Paulus-Scheyer/Pocius
Nelson-Pocius/Scheyer
Henderson-McClure/King
Singler-Lance/Zoubek

and when Zoubek is in against dominant bigs like Hansbrough, Dickey, McCauley,

Instead have Singler/King at the 4 to prevent the other team's bigs from doubling Zoubs,

With Lance/McClure seeing limited action since they are not deep threats to pull the post guy out nor strong enough to go head to head in the post.

With so much flexibility, there are unlimited possibilities, but Duke needs to keep it to two or three sets, to keep it simple, except against UNC or other top 10 teams where a blend may be required.

Paulus-Smith/Scheyer
Nelson-Scheyer/Pocius
Henderson-Pocius/Scheyer
Singler-King/McClure
Zoubek-King/Lance

So in both cases, the nucleus is Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (with Scheyer mixed in)

In the fast pressing lineup, Nolan is the PG with the core in 2-5, and Lance-McClure sub in rather than Zoubek-King.

In the traditional lineup, Zoubek is the center with the core in 1-4, and Singler/King play forward rather than Lance/McClure.

Still under utilizing Marty due to competition. He seems to look to pass into the post more than his peers, so Pocius might get more PT when Zoubek is in.

It seems last year Marty only played if Nelson was in foul trouble or when Gerald was suspended.

Besides against UNC, Duke may want to mix and match these lineups against teams like GA Tech and NC State who have big forwards but an inexperienced PG, though Paulus probably has enough of an experience advantage to fluster rookie PGs.

cato
07-12-2007, 08:18 PM
Haha, I love it. Six weeks ago, I was talking about Nolan being capable of starting and people thought I was insane.

If you think Smith will be the starting PG, I'm ready to take that bet.


There's been some speculation as to whether Nolan can run PG, so let me end all of that. Nolan can play either the 1 or 2 with no problem; he's the textbook definition of a combo guard.

Oh, well, you've certainly assuaged my concern. Wait . . . no you haven't. What makes you think he's ready to play point in the ACC? It is notoriously difficult for PGs to make the jump to ACC play -- and Nolan didn't even play PG in high school. I highly doubt he could play PG as a frosh in the ACC for extended minutes "with no problem".


And with all due respect to Daniel Ewing, Smith is probably 2-3x more explosive. As someone mentioned earlier this week, he's the quickest guard we've had since Duhon.

Are you thinking of the same Daniel I'm thinking of? He was very quick. He was not as strong around the rim as J-Will, though.

Richard Berg
07-12-2007, 08:19 PM
Haha, I love it. Six weeks ago, I was talking about Nolan being capable of starting and people thought I was insane.
If you think he will replace Paulus, I still think you're crazy :) No way. More probable: he could start at the 2 if he proves himself against ACC competition and Scheyer has a sophomore slump. Still not too likely -- not because he lacks talent or skills or anything, but the mere fact we have so many athletic guards with more experience.

Hyper-quick scoring freshmen are still freshmen. Think back to the 1st years of Maggette, Ewing, Nelson, Henderson. They only started 3, 0, 2, and 10 games respectively. Nolan will have at least as much competition for his spot as those guys did.


And, the crown jewel in my opinion, is that having him at PG opens Paulus to do what he does best: shoot the basketball.
You really think so? Paulus is a very good shooter, but nothing special. There are several hundred very good shooters in the NCAA; almost every team has at least one deadeye, though they don't always have the overall skills to play major minutes.

By contrast, there aren't many players around with his passing and court vision. When he's "on", it's very special. Without those skills he is not a McD and probably not recruited by ACC schools at all.

----
I find this thread (and many others this offseason) to be an overreaction to last year. We had a terrible time scoring the ball, so anything that shows scoring potential becomes more attractive to us than it really is.

mgtr
07-12-2007, 08:43 PM
I do not understand. I do not understand. Do we have trolling? Paulus is the guy - what does he have to do to win over some? I believe GP will be the team leader in every respect this year. If I am wrong, I think we are in serious, serious trouble.

grossbus
07-12-2007, 09:09 PM
"Whether his handle surpasses Ewing"

geez, i sure hope so.

dukemomLA
07-13-2007, 01:41 AM
I can't believe that we still have months to go before the start of BB season. Only DBR keeps me sane.

accfanfrom1970
07-13-2007, 04:19 AM
Wasn't Smith the point guard at Oak Hill prior to Jennings arrival?

Bob Green
07-13-2007, 05:14 AM
Wasn't Smith the point guard at Oak Hill prior to Jennings arrival?

No. The previous PG was Ty Lawson.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

ACCBBallFan
07-13-2007, 08:53 AM
Those questioning Nolan's ability to be an ACC PG first year seem to be forgetting that he would be paired with Greg Paulus the SG.

So both are combos and kind of academic which one you label as PG and the other as SG, kind of like Dowdell and Gordon or Singletary and JR Reynolds, the Miami trio a couple years ago, etc., just not quite that good.

It remains to be seen whether Nolan is any more a PG than Scheyer or Paulus is, or SG for that matter, but he does bring more speed and hops on both ends of the floor, that could result in being less vulnerable to speedy guards and more dribble penetration.

Coach K really likes both Paulus and Scheyer, so Nolan has to be a long shot going in, but if he is as good as advertised, he will get some burn either as a starter or a more often used defensive sub who also adds some offensive spark.

whereinthehellami
07-13-2007, 08:58 AM
I think it depends on which Paulus we see. The Paulus from last year really struggled guarding other PGs and on dribbling when tightly guarded on offense. That is definately an area that Smith could help because of his speed, athleticsm, and length. As far as Paulus moving from PG to SG, I see it more of having two point guards and creating match-up problems in Duke's favor. If Paulus is being guarded by a SG then he can rotate over and assume a PG role and use his creativity. If Smith is being guarded by a SG then he can drive to the basket, which seems to be a very welcomed strength that he posseses.

I don't see Smith starting more games than Scheyer but I do see alot of situations where last year we could have used Smith because Paulus/Scheyer were on the recieving end of bad match-ups.

Boston Dukie
07-13-2007, 09:20 PM
It doesn't really matter to me if he plays PG or SG or whatever - coach K always says Duke has "players" not "positions" anyway

Smith needs to be on the court as much as possible. Elite teams need to play elite players (i.e., those with NBA potential) and Smith has it

We cannot have the problem we had last year where we have Scheyer and Paulus both constantly on the court together, which leads to 2 big problems.

1) Neither can stop dribble penetration

2) Neither can create off the dribble

So we end up in close games at the end, and the other team isolates Paulus and/or Scheyer with their best peremiter player and they score. And then when Duke is on offense, neither of our ball handlers can penetrate or draw the defense to collapse.

I think Smith plus Paulus together on the court is great. Smith can dribble penetrate and when the defense collapses, he can throw to an open Paulus, who can bury the 3 or make the extra pass to find the open man.

If Smith isn't getting huge minutes (and Singler of course), Duke will have the same problem as last year.

KRZ4DUKE
07-13-2007, 11:23 PM
NS should make an immediate impact on the D end. We were consistently getting beat by penetration last year and NS should be able to stay in front of his man.
Don't expect him to light it up early in the season, he needs to gain some experience and trust from the team. He will probably be like GH offensively during the first half of last season for awhile. By tournament time he should be quite a contributor on both ends.
I would like to see him get some easy baskets in transition. Last year's Duke team, unlike years past had to work for every score. Painfully at times...

Indoor66
07-14-2007, 11:06 AM
NS should make an immediate impact on the D end. We were consistently getting beat by penetration last year and NS should be able to stay in front of his man.
Don't expect him to light it up early in the season, he needs to gain some experience and trust from the team. He will probably be like GH offensively during the first half of last season for awhile. By tournament time he should be quite a contributor on both ends.
I would like to see him get some easy baskets in transition. Last year's Duke team, unlike years past had to work for every score. Painfully at times...

Hey Jumbo, how about resurrecting some of your posts about Duke help defense and dribble penetration. ;)

Seems we have some confusion on the board about the issue and you have so clearly addressed these issues in the past. Please help.

Troublemaker
07-14-2007, 02:27 PM
I love Nolan's game. He'll be a big help to the team and probably the most enjoyable player to watch next season. Who doesn't love a great mid-range game and a dirty crossover? He'd probably have an even greater impact if Duke didn't have so many guard options already. As much as I like him, I still see Nolan as a bench/role player this season and not part of either Duke's predominant 5-man lineup or Duke's crunch time lineup. I think he'll be the 7th man in the rotation, with Henderson being the 6th man.

ACCBBallFan
07-14-2007, 02:51 PM
I love Nolan's game. He'll be a big help to the team and probably the most enjoyable player to watch next season. Who doesn't love a great mid-range game and a dirty crossover? He'd probably have an even greater impact if Duke didn't have so many guard options already. As much as I like him, I still see Nolan as a bench/role player this season and not part of either Duke's predominant 5-man lineup or Duke's crunch time lineup. I think he'll be the 7th man in the rotation, with Henderson being the 6th man.
I will stay out of the Gerald/jon debate but I agree with what you are sayng on Nolan Smith, except if he is a deadly FT shooter, he may be an end of game specialist, with the same defensive tenacity and slashing to bucket as Nelson, but more reliable from the line.

Classof06
07-14-2007, 03:41 PM
I do not understand. I do not understand. Do we have trolling? Paulus is the guy - what does he have to do to win over some?

What has he done to win over some? IMO, nothing yet. It boggles my mind how sensitive some get about Paulus; you would think one was badmouthing Jason Williams or Shane Battier...

I think some people are misinterpreting what I said. I said Nolan is capable of starting. I never said he was guaranteed to start or that he would start. Without question, I think he's good enough to start. but I realize the PG position is Greg's to lose and I'm also very curious to see how Paulus bounces back from a rough year. Based on everything I've seen, I will say this though: if both Nolan Smith and Greg Paulus were incoming freshman this summer, and they were the only two primary ballhandlers on the roster, I cannot realistically envision any scenario where Greg Paulus would start. Just one man's opinion.


Oh, well, you've certainly assuaged my concern. Wait . . . no you haven't. What makes you think he's ready to play point in the ACC? It is notoriously difficult for PGs to make the jump to ACC play -- and Nolan didn't even play PG in high school. I highly doubt he could play PG as a frosh in the ACC for extended minutes "with no problem".

Cato, when I say he can play the point "with no problem", I'm referring to his comfort level when playing the point; a combo guard by definition is one that can comfortably play at the 1 or 2. Nolan is one of those players. What makes me believe he can play point in the ACC is that I've seen the kid play point and run the offense multiple times; I think that's the only reason I would say what I've been saying. Nevertheless, I'm not asking you or anybody else to take my word for it because you'll get to see it for yourself. This kid is the real deal. And yes, I am 100% talking about the same Daniel Ewing, the same Daniel Ewing I've watched in person (seeing a trend here?) upwards of 25-30 times.



I find this thread (and many others this offseason) to be an overreaction to last year. We had a terrible time scoring the ball, so anything that shows scoring potential becomes more attractive to us than it really is.

That would be an apt observation if Nolan wasn't a tremendous perimeter defender as well. And wouldn't ya know it, we need one of those too.

Again, the point of my original post is as more of you see this kid play in person, more of you are realizing just how good he is. I think it's interesting to watch fan opinions evolve on Nolan as more Duke fans are seeing just what kind of player we're getting.

To take it further, It's also funny to listen to the skeptics that haven't yet seen him play. Skeptic is probably the wrong word, but I mean the people on this board who act like Greg Paulus is the best player to ever put on a Duke uniform and that any mention of the fact that Nolan might actually be good enough to challenge Greg for his spot is blasphemy. Go see the kid play, then get back to me.

Classof06
07-14-2007, 03:50 PM
It doesn't really matter to me if he plays PG or SG or whatever - coach K always says Duke has "players" not "positions" anyway

Smith needs to be on the court as much as possible. Elite teams need to play elite players (i.e., those with NBA potential) and Smith has it

We cannot have the problem we had last year where we have Scheyer and Paulus both constantly on the court together, which leads to 2 big problems.

1) Neither can stop dribble penetration

2) Neither can create off the dribble

So we end up in close games at the end, and the other team isolates Paulus and/or Scheyer with their best peremiter player and they score. And then when Duke is on offense, neither of our ball handlers can penetrate or draw the defense to collapse.

I think Smith plus Paulus together on the court is great. Smith can dribble penetrate and when the defense collapses, he can throw to an open Paulus, who can bury the 3 or make the extra pass to find the open man.

If Smith isn't getting huge minutes (and Singler of course), Duke will have the same problem as last year.

Keep preaching, brother. Keep preaching....

Richard Berg
07-14-2007, 08:33 PM
Skeptic is probably the wrong word, but I mean the people on this board who act like Greg Paulus is the best player to ever put on a Duke uniform and that any mention of the fact that Nolan might actually be good enough to challenge Greg for his spot is blasphemy.
Not the best player by a long shot, but Paulus is one of the best Duke passers in recent memory. With the loss of Josh, he's the only really gifted passer we have (unless Singler proves he work the high post like Josh did).

Sure, he hasn't lived up to his potential in this regard, but don't forget this entire thread is about potential.


Based on everything I've seen, I will say this though: if both Nolan Smith and Greg Paulus were incoming freshman this summer, and they were the only two primary ballhandlers on the roster, I cannot realistically envision any scenario where Greg Paulus would start. Just one man's opinion.
I still think this is crazy talk. Even if we conceded that frosh-Nolan is a better overall player than frosh-Greg (which I won't until I see them in person), Greg brings things that (a) nobody else on the team can (b) are vitally needed. We are loaded with athletic scorers & defenders. Take away three of {Nelson, G, Scheyer, Marty} and the situation is reversed: we'd be in dire need of backcourt quickness, so Nolan would start. But that's not the case.

ACCBBallFan
07-14-2007, 09:34 PM
Last few posts are fighting the wrong fight.

If Nolan Smith plays much, it will be along side Greg Paulus at the expense of Jon Scheyer. So still a long shot, but Greg will be a starter as will Nelson.

Only way I could see Nolan starting is if Gerald also starts and Singler plays the 5. I do not see Nolan being so unexpectedly good to beat out both Scheyer and Henderson, not to mention Pocius.

Smith-Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler.

Bench: Scheyer-Pocius-King-McClure-Lance-Zoubek

Not my first preference which would be to give Zoubs every chance to succeed as 7' 2" 266 pounds is a force to be reckonend with, if he improves on his turnovers,and can be a Luke Schenscher type player.

Paulus-(Henderson/Scheyer with edge to Gerald but very debateable, especially if Greg struggles with his dribbling which enhances the Smith argument)-Nelson-Singler-Zoubek

Bench Smith-(Scheyer/Henderson)-Pocius-King-McClure-Lance

duketaylor
07-14-2007, 11:18 PM
I really believe we'll see a bunch of guys at the top 3 spots this year as we're loaded there. Greg/Nolan/Jon can play 1, Greg/Nolan/Jon/Markie/Gerald can play 2, Markie/Jon/Gerald/Kyle, plus a few others can play 3. Nobody should see more than 30 minutes (although Greg will, but shouldn't). Just my opinion. K has a strange mix, to be sure, can't wait to see what he does.
Go DEVILS!!

mgtr
07-15-2007, 02:41 AM
I continue to believe that Paulus is the Duke point guard until he does something so bad or so stupid to eliminate himself from that position.

SilkyJ
07-15-2007, 12:59 PM
Greg brings things that (a) nobody else on the team can (b) are vitally needed.

A really high turnover rate?

Seriously though, would you mind saying what these things are? He's our best 3 point shooter and has some range, but he can't get his own shot...the only way he does is by stepping back off a screen. He has good vision, but his passing hasn't been great...so what things are you talking about?

Richard Berg
07-15-2007, 01:19 PM
We've had this discussion already. Let's recap. Greg is there for passing and court vision and leadership. In other words, the traditional PG role. Do you not recall that coming out of high school, he was far more lauded (due primarily to his passing) than NS was?

I also acknowledged that Greg has not lived up to that potential yet, though he's shown flashes of brilliance. Further, I pointed out that despite his imperfection, it's still more ACC-level ability than Nolan has gotten to show, which is of course zero. In other words, this entire thread is a thread about potential, an optimistic look at the future. Part of the misconception I see on your side is that you vividly remember the mistakes Paulus made during his transition to college ball - while injured - yet are trying to compare that to NS as he competes with high schoolers.

Make no mistake, NS will have an adjustment period too. In all likelihood, he won't look nearly as impressive against ACC defenders as he does now. He won't lead the ACC in a major stat category like Paulus did. When that happens, some people will forget this lesson and look once again to the class of 2012 to be the next unblemished saviors of the program. Duke is privileged to get immediate-impact freshmen from time to time; let's just not forget how rare that is. I think it's more realistic to hope for health and maturity among the returning players.

SilkyJ
07-15-2007, 03:07 PM
We've had this discussion already. Let's recap. Greg is there for passing and court vision and leadership. In other words, the traditional PG role. Do you not recall that coming out of high school, he was far more lauded (due primarily to his passing) than NS was?

What about his shooting? He's a sharpshooter from deep. I also agree that Greg just seems like a good leader.

Also, the fact that one or the other was lauded out of HS means absolutely nothing. I dont care if you are ranked 1 or 100, just produce on the court. (that is not a comment on either player, just a comment on the fact that you are giving some weight to that)



Part of the misconception I see on your side is that you vividly remember the mistakes Paulus made during his transition to college ball - while injured - yet are trying to compare that to NS as he competes with high schoolers.


Not sure what you are talking about, you must be confusing me with other posters. I havent really weighed in on the debate a whole lot. I think both are good players and its going to be tough to keep both of them off the court. IMO, Greg will be our PG all season, but we'll see.

I just wanted to know what "things" you were talking about, thats all. And thanks for recapping.

Richard Berg
07-15-2007, 03:51 PM
Also, the fact that one or the other was lauded out of HS means absolutely nothing. I dont care if you are ranked 1 or 100, just produce on the court. (that is not a comment on either player, just a comment on the fact that you are giving some weight to that)
I'm trying to point out the irony of basing one's opinion of Nolan on his HS / AAU / pickup career when we know - by Greg's very example - how meaningles that stuff is.

SilkyJ
07-15-2007, 04:41 PM
I'm trying to point out the irony of basing one's opinion of Nolan on his HS / AAU / pickup career when we know - by Greg's very example - how meaningles that stuff is.

We agree.

On a parallel note, I do tend to lend more credit to a High School career based on where a player played, so I am optimistic about the fact that Nolan went to Oak Hill.

DukeBlood
07-15-2007, 08:45 PM
Hmm.. This went from asking about Nolan being skinny.. To Paulus vs. Smith thread.

Nobody really did answer my question, Is Smith a little better fit then Scheyer? Maybe i missed where someone posted it. Sorry if thats the case.

Anyway, I dont have much inside knowledge.. but It is Greg's job to lose. Smith will get his minutes(15 a game?). However, If Greg is not doing well. I believe Coach K will give Smith a shot right away.

Also, I have seen a few threads about Henderson and Scheyer. I think Scheyer is the starter but skating on VERY THIN ice. Not because Scheyer is bad, but because Henderson is that good. Well he can be.

Paulus
Scheyer
Nelson
Singler
Thomas

Thats my starting 5. Henderson, Zoubek and McClure coming off the bench right away while Smith being the 9th man. Pocious and King getting very few minutes.

The more I think about it, Pocious may steal some minutes away and MIGHT get into the rotation of 8 or 9.

mgtr
07-15-2007, 09:51 PM
My money is still on Greg Paulus. He has indeed shown flashes of brilliance, and I believe he will deliver this year.

Classof06
07-16-2007, 03:46 PM
Not the best player by a long shot, but Paulus is one of the best Duke passers in recent memory

One of the best Duke passers in recent memory? With 3.8 assists per game to 3.1 turnovers per game? Get real.

houstondukie
07-16-2007, 05:11 PM
I'm not as worried about how Paulus will play this upcoming season as some people. Yes, he struggled last year, but most of his bad games came in the first half of the season. Clearly his foot injury played a big part.

I think we all would agree that the Va tech game at home last yr. was Greg's worst game of the season (O points, 1 assist, 6 TO). He followed that bad game with another dull performance in a loss at Ga. Tech.

But since then, the last 17 games of the season, Greg averaged almost 16 points (18 points over the last 11 games, 21 points in the last 5). Not to mention great heart, leadership, and toughness. Not many kids could of handled all the pressure, scrutiny, and abuse Paulus received last year and still play well, but Greg did. Despite his weaknesses, there's no doubt Greg has the talent and toughness to lead Duke. We still haven't seen the best of Paulus.

Troublemaker
07-16-2007, 09:38 PM
Last few posts are fighting the wrong fight.

If Nolan Smith plays much, it will be along side Greg Paulus at the expense of Jon Scheyer. So still a long shot, but Greg will be a starter as will Nelson.


Totally agree. If Nolan turns out to be a stud that needs to play and be a part of Duke's predominant lineup, then I think you'll see Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Singler-Thomas with Scheyer, Henderson, King, McClure off the bench.

mgtr
07-16-2007, 10:12 PM
I don't know about some of you folks. Either you saw a lot more in LT last year than I did, or you have inside knowledge about how much he has improved this year. I most certainly hope you are correct.

mapei
07-16-2007, 10:34 PM
I thought LT looked very good early in the season, but then struggled. His defense looks rugged, but his fouls keep him from being a reliable asset. I guess I saw talent, but in very raw form.

ACCBBallFan
07-16-2007, 10:56 PM
I don't know about some of you folks. Either you saw a lot more in LT last year than I did, or you have inside knowledge about how much he has improved this year. I most certainly hope you are correct.I think there are unanswered for questions for Lance, for Zoubek and for King, as well as a few others.

Duke could go center by committee and present 3 totally different challenges for the opponent with

Zoubek (averaged 7.3 min last year per game)-a giant center in a more traditional set,
Lance (14.9 minutes) -an athletic defender for up tempo, or
King (would get some of Josh's 35.3 minutes) - a mini Pittsnoggle to leverage Taylor King's long ball and minimize his perimeter defensive woes,

with the order varying based on strengths and weaknesses of the opponent,

Though King is several inches shorter than Pittsnoggle's 6'11", then again so is everybody on Duke except Zoubek.

If the trio can stay out of foul trouble, they would consume 40 minutes in the post, not necessarily 13.3 each.

Rather than the 5 (Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler) either all starting or all sharing 4 positions playing 80% for 32 minutes each,

mix in McClure at the 4, Marty at the 3 and Nolan at the PG occasionally, something like

Paulus 30 (32.4 last year)- Smith 10 (would have to get scraps of minutes from Paulus, Nelson and Scheyer)

Nelson 30 (31.9 last year)- Marty 10 (7.1 last year but in only 27 of 33 games). If Nolan already got Nelsonís scraps, where do Marty's minutes come from?

Singler 30 (35.3 for Josh, but some already allocated to post)- McClure 10 (21.7 minutes last year)

Other than McClure, sounds pretty good in theory until you get to Scheyer (33.7 last year ) and Henderson (19.3 last year) sharing 40 minutes when each deserve 25 or 30.

Foul trouble at the 5 may solve that problem for you with Singler/McClure possibly having to play more 5 than optimal, forcing Henderson to play more some 4.

No way on God's green earth and blue ocean does coach K play 11 guys 10 minutes each and figure out how to spread the other 90, but he does have lots of options.

So it kind of boils down to:

1. Does everybody get pretty much the same minutes as last year, Scheyer a little less and Henderson a little more? with Singler getting most of Josh's and perhaps Zoubek and Marty getting the balance of Josh's minutes, with virtually no PT for the other two freshmen Smith and King while they pay their freshmen dues learning the Duke system and in Taylorís case at least improving their defense?

or

2. Does Dave McClure's 21.7 and Jon Scheyer's 33.7 PT take a hit to give more PT to Gerald Henderson, Taylor King and Nolan Smith to give Duke a higher reward but at the same time a higher risk than these guys who are more than steady, but not the guys to maximize Duke's chance of NCAA success?

SilkyJ
07-16-2007, 11:34 PM
One of the best Duke passers in recent memory? With 3.8 assists per game to 3.1 turnovers per game? Get real.

I missed him say that. Good point.




...mix in McClure at the 4...

You know, McClure gained some weight this summer too, if he's up around 220, he could be even more of a factor down low, he may even guard the 5 in smaller lineups b/c his D would be better than Singler's and Kings

Bob Green
07-16-2007, 11:47 PM
A couple of caveats up front:

1. Discussing minutes in July is a complete waste of time - but I engage in it anyway as there are worse ways to waste my time.
2. I like Dave McClure's intensity and scrappiness.

However, unless he is shooting a 1000 jump shots a day, his minutes could be in jeopardy. Hopefully, he is addressing his offensive skill sets over the summer. I can see McClure averaging 10 points a game with put backs and garbage points, if he has the confidence to shoot the ball. At the end of last season, he wouldn't pull the trigger.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

SilkyJ
07-17-2007, 12:03 AM
A couple of caveats up front:

1. Discussing minutes in July is a complete waste of time - but I engage in it anyway as there are worse ways to waste my time.
2. I like Dave McClure's intensity and scrappiness.

However, unless he is shooting a 1000 jump shots a day, his minutes could be in jeopardy. Hopefully, he is addressing his offensive skill sets over the summer. I can see McClure averaging 10 points a game with put backs and garbage points, if he has the confidence to shoot the ball. At the end of last season, he wouldn't pull the trigger.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

1) Agreed - Agreed.
2) Agreed, but I also think he is a very good rebounder and defender, not just a hussle guy.

Also agreed about the jumpshots and his need to improve, but I remember things differently. I think that hesitation to shoot was there early but he started to shoot those jumpers more often down the stretch...

PS - B/c of the time difference I believe I can say this: Get back to work!

Bob Green
07-17-2007, 12:36 AM
PS - B/c of the time difference I believe I can say this: Get back to work!

You hit the nail on the head :)

ACCBBallFan
07-17-2007, 12:39 AM
You know, McClure gained some weight this summer too, if he's up around 220, he could be even more of a factor down low, he may even guard the 5 in smaller lineups b/c his D would be better than Singler's and KingsActually I did not know that, and you are right it was smart thing for Dave to do as it gives coach K even more options.

But then I read the part that says if he is up to 220.

Guess we will have to wait for the team rosters but they are not the most accurate with respect to heights and weights.

houstondukie
07-17-2007, 03:11 PM
I don't see anyone getting more than 30 minutes a game, except for maybe Paulus or Scheyer, because we are so deep. Nonetheless, Coach K is going to play his best players the bulk of the game (25-30 min). The seven man rotation I see is:

PG: Paulus Scheyer
SG: Scheyer Henderson
SF: Nelson Henderson
PF: Singler Zoubek
C: Thomas Zoubek

I think these 7 players will average 25 min. a game more or less.
That leaves 25 min. left for Nolan, McClure, Pocious, and King.

Nolan will be the next guard off the bench; McClure will be the next big off the bench. I don't see much time at all for Pocious or King, which is unfortunate.

SilkyJ
07-17-2007, 03:44 PM
Actually I did not know that, and you are right it was smart thing for Dave to do as it gives coach K even more options.

But then I read the part that says if he is up to 220.

Guess we will have to wait for the team rosters but they are not the most accurate with respect to heights and weights.

Yea, let me rephrase. It looked to ME as if he has gained weight (Looking at him he has definitely added some pounds on his arms and chest) and the part about 220 was just me speculating on what I though would be a good weight for him to be at so he could bang more effectively. In reality, I doubt he'll be above 210, unless he continues to add weight.

Come to think of it, thats not a bad idea - lets stop killing ourselves playing pickup and just stay in the weightroom all day. (sarcasm alert, but semi-serious)

Also, I disagree with the notion that our heights/weights are often incorrect. I have seen a strong correlation between what we list people at and what they have come in at at the NBA "combine"...since I'm not working I'll go looking for evidence

2007 - Josh came in EXACTLY as listed on Goduke: 6'10 & 240 (remember this is WITH shoes. 1st link is combine results, 2nd link is GODUKE):
http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Draft-Combine-Measurements/
http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2006

2006 - JJ came in (at the combine) an inch taller than expected, but weighed exactly the same as listed by Duke, and Sheld was the same height and a few pounds heavier. FWIW, Both are now listed EXACTLY as Duke listed them in their senior year on NBA.com (1st link is GODUKE, 2nd is Combine Results, 3rd is NBA.com)

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2005
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2485024&name=ford_chad
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jj_redick/index.html

2005 - Ewing has been cut by the clips so I can't get current info on him, and I can't find the 2005 combine results.

2004 - Duhon isnt even listed on GoDuke.com so I can't compare...I guess the comparisons stop here for now...

greybeard
07-17-2007, 04:42 PM
To sum up what I'm reading, assuming it's replicated around the league, all these injuries this summer should leave this group in pretty good shape. Yogi Berra

Classof06
07-17-2007, 06:03 PM
Totally agree. If Nolan turns out to be a stud that needs to play and be a part of Duke's predominant lineup, then I think you'll see Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Singler-Thomas with Scheyer, Henderson, King, McClure off the bench.

In the above scenario, it wouldn't only be at Scheyer's expense, but also Henderson's, which I don't see happening. IMO, if Scheyer doesn't start (for whatever reason) then logically, Henderson is in there; it's a one-or-the-other scenario. The only way I see Nolan starting is at the expense of Paulus. I think Smith will get minutes at the 2, but to start, it'd have to be the 1. We have way too many 2-guards, especially when we've only just tipped the iceberg with Henderson and Scheyer has so much to show as well.
________________

This leads me to another issue regarding Gerald and Scheyer. I was talking to my brother about this the other day and he insists that no matter what happens in preseason, K will bring Gerald off the bench and start Scheyer. Conceding that Nelson is a lock to start, he believes that while Henderson might play more minutes (if his play warrants that), K will decide that Henderson's game brings a spark off the bench that Scheyer's does not, ultimately bringing the team more depth. He used Popovich's decision to sub Manu Ginobili as the prime example for his reasoning. He also mentioned that Maggette coming off the bench didn't stop him from going to the league.

I argued that while Gerald would bring a great spark off the bench, our team is finally deep enough where we don't need to depend on that spark. Scheyer had a great year last year, but I believe Gerald was playing better when the season ended. Scheyer was the starter but Gerald, like Paulus, missed the bulk of preseason; that probably/hopefully won't be the case this year.

IMO, between Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson, we're going to see every possible 2-man combo between the 3 to start a game at some point or another. More often than not, however, something tells me my brother's prediction is what might actually happen. I won't be a happy camper if that's the case; who has their team's most likely NBA prospect coming off the bench? I think Gerald needs to start, but between the two sophomores, K certainly has decisions to make. Again, it's July, but I'm curious to hear thoughts on what you would do and what you think will happen with our 2 and 3 slots.

Richard Berg
07-17-2007, 06:19 PM
The main problem with your brother's scenario is the way it discounts what happens in the preseason. We all know K gives heavy weight to how players respond in practice.

Also, the college game is a lot shorter. 8 fewer minutes and 11 more seconds per possession is a huge difference. Manu is not just the traditional 6th man "instant offense" a la Stackhouse on the Mavs or Ben Gordon on the Bulls (when Duhon starts); he's the leader & soul of a 2nd unit that plays the bulk of the Spurs' 2nd-3rd quarter minutes. College teams don't have an equivalent -- not just because they lack the depth, but because the game simply isn't structured that way.

If G comes off the bench, he'll function more like Stackhouse than Manu. In truth, I think he starts a lot of games. He already started 10 last year. Next year, not only should he be healthier, but we'll probably be playing "small ball" (e.g. GP-JS-GH-DN-KS) a lot more often out of necessity.

Classof06
07-17-2007, 06:32 PM
The main problem with your brother's scenario is the way it discounts what happens in the preseason. We all know K gives heavy weight to how players respond in practice.

Also, the college game is a lot shorter. 8 fewer minutes and 11 more seconds per possession is a huge difference. Manu is not just the traditional 6th man "instant offense" a la Stackhouse on the Mavs or Ben Gordon on the Bulls (when Duhon starts); he's the leader & soul of a 2nd unit that plays the bulk of the Spurs' 2nd-3rd quarter minutes. College teams don't have an equivalent -- not just because they lack the depth, but because the game simply isn't structured that way.

If G comes off the bench, he'll function more like Stackhouse than Manu. In truth, I think he starts a lot of games. He already started 10 last year. Next year, not only should he be healthier, but we'll probably be playing "small ball" (e.g. GP-JS-GH-DN-KS) a lot more often out of necessity.

I agree with everything you've said 100%

yancem
07-17-2007, 06:53 PM
This leads me to another issue regarding Gerald and Scheyer. I was talking to my brother about this the other day and he insists that no matter what happens in preseason, K will bring Gerald off the bench and start Scheyer. Conceding that Nelson is a lock to start, he believes that while Henderson might play more minutes (if his play warrants that), K will decide that Henderson's game brings a spark off the bench that Scheyer's does not, ultimately bringing the team more depth. He used Popovich's decision to sub Manu Ginobili as the prime example for his reasoning. He also mentioned that Maggette coming off the bench didn't stop him from going to the league.


Why does everyone assume that Nelson is a lock to start? I know that tradition states that everything being equal, a senior should start over an underclassman but what if all things aren't equal. I think that there is a much stronger argument to be made that Nelson will not start than there is against Paulus.

Nelson will be competing against two sophomores who played close to his level last year and are certainly going to improve. Paulus will be competing against a freshman with no college experience.

As for precedence, Coach K inserted Duhon into the starting line-up for the then senior Nate James. If Scheyer and Henderson both develop like I think they can, then it might be Nelson providing the spark of the bench. Then again one or neither may develop as much as I hope or and this argument becomes a mute point.

throatybeard
07-17-2007, 06:59 PM
The DBR Law of Regression to the starting 5:

Any summer thread can eventually turn into a debate about the MBB starting five the next season.

SilkyJ
07-17-2007, 07:07 PM
To sum up what I'm reading, assuming it's replicated around the league, all these injuries this summer should leave this group in pretty good shape. Yogi Berra

Greybeard, I never thought I'd say this: POTD.

SilkyJ
07-17-2007, 07:32 PM
But between the two sophomores, K certainly has decisions to make. Again, it's July, but I'm curious to hear thoughts on what you would do and what you think will happen with our 2 and 3 slots.

Im not going to try and predict what will shake out between Scheyer/Hendo, but I will say this: both are very good scorers, but Scheyer's D is better b/c of his lateral quickness, or Gerald's lack thereof. Henderson can rebound better (which will important from our guard's this year) but Scheyer is a better perimeter defender...at least he was last year.



As for precedence, Coach K inserted Duhon into the starting line-up for the then senior Nate James. If Scheyer and Henderson both develop like I think they can, then it might be Nelson providing the spark of the bench. Then again one or neither may develop as much as I hope or and this argument becomes a mute point.

You are comparing apples to oranges with the Nate James thing. Nate was a role player, hustle type, on that team. Demarcus was co-mvp last year and was our leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder, and a very good defender.

mapei
07-17-2007, 11:38 PM
Plus, IIRC, starting Chris over Nate was a mid-season thing to compensate for Boozer's injury; they didn't start the season that way.

I can see one of the presumptive starters losing the spot late in the season, but not at the beginning. Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson will all start.

Also, my memory may be failing me here, but wasn't Henderson's great streak of play literally limited to two or three games, all of which Duke lost? It's not like he was a star over an entire month and turned the team into a winner. Or am I just forgetting?

greybeard
07-18-2007, 12:03 AM
Greybeard, I never thought I'd say this: POTD.

Huh? Must be sometimes at least not scathingly critical; beyond that, I haven't a clue. Nice not to be on completely opposite sides Silky.

Actually, I just got it; I never thought you'd say such a thing either. I'm gonna lie down now. Later.

gw67
07-18-2007, 08:49 AM
mapei - Your memory is good re Henderson. During February and March, he had three very good games - two vs the Heels and one against the Terps. For those two months, he averaged 20.6 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg and shot 50.6%. Good numbers but not great. He also shot 58.8% from the foul line, 28.6% beyond the three point line and had 12 assists to 15 turnovers.

As I've pointed out in several posts, he has the physical tools that make pro scouts take notice but, IMO, he must improve in several areas during the coming year if he wants to move either Scheyer or Nelson to the bench.

gw67

duketaylor
07-18-2007, 09:17 AM
Pure speculation, but I have a thought. K pulls an El Deano and subs 5 at a time: Starting five: The "running" team of Greg (or even Nolan), Markie, Hendo, Singler, LT. Sub with the half-court offensive team (the "plodders"), Nolan (or Greg), Jon, King/Marty, McClure, Zoubek. This five plays zone on D and on O looks for Jon or Taylor to bomb away from the outside until the inside is somewhat open to dump it into Zou for 2. They play for about 3 minutes at a time and just try to maintain the point differential until the "runners" get back in. The starting 5 is highly athletic and create tremendous match-up issues for the opposition. I actually like Nolan more on this 5 than Greg, but I doubt we'll see it. K has talked about running more and pressing full-court, the starting 5 can do just that.
Looking forward to K's camp in Oct/Nov to see if he employs any of this.
I do think when Zou is in we'll see some zone defense.
Also, keep in mind, Singler can defend the post as well, we'll see him at some "5" at times this year.
Back to your morning coffee. GO DUKE!!! GTHC, GTH!!! Ahhh, that felt good;)

yancem
07-18-2007, 10:21 AM
You are comparing apples to oranges with the Nate James thing. Nate was a role player, hustle type, on that team. Demarcus was co-mvp last year and was our leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder, and a very good defender.

Nothing against Nelson, I really like the guy and had great expectations for him coming in, but he will now be a senior who has had several injuries and has never developed into the dominant player I hoped he'd be.

Let's compare James and Nelson: They both were highly recruited and touted as likely starters until they both had injury plagued early years. They both are excellent defenders and strong athletes but both had offensive limitations. And they both had promising younger players come in behind them.

Nelson may have been our co-mvp last year, leading scorer, and 2nd leading rebounder but compare his numbers to James junior and senior year 11.0/12.3 points and 4.5/5.2 rebounds. Unless Nelson explodes this year (would be nice but not many people make huge jumps junior to senior years) his numbers aren't that much different than Jame's. And let's not forget that Jame played on stronger teams. People forget how good James was. K often said that he would have been a 3 or 4 year starter if not for the injuries. He probably would have been as good if not better than Carrawell

SilkyJ
07-18-2007, 12:43 PM
Let's compare James and Nelson: They both were highly recruited and touted as likely starters until they both had injury plagued early years. They both are excellent defenders and strong athletes but both had offensive limitations. And they both had promising younger players come in behind them.

Um, Demarcus is the leading scorer in CALIFORNIA STATE HISTORY. Little tidbit you might not have been aware of. His offense is well beyond Nate's.

Also, as someone else mentioned, subbing out Nate was a strategic decision to change the composition of our lineup. Duhon and Nate did not directly compete for minutes at a position, but rather K decided to go with a quicker team, which meant going smaller. If K wanted to do that in this case, he would probably remove Paulus or Scheyer and go with Smith, not remove Nelson. Nelson is fast and athletic, so if K wanted to go with a "running" team, he would take out someone slower like those two.

ACCBBallFan
07-18-2007, 01:32 PM
I agree with Silky and Chuck.

If Nolan gets a lot of burn it (he seems to have a good handle and cross over, video did not show one way or another if he can pass well or not) would come at the expense of Scheyer, since Nelson and Henderson both would fit better in the run and press motive and Greg shot better, released his shot quicker, and would be a better second PG on the floor with Nolan, though Jon is a better defender.

Instead of Nelson in for Greg which I do not think K would do many lineups without either Paulsu/Scheyer, K could go also with a quick lineup of Nleson instead of Lance to spread the floor more but give up some rebounding and defensive size.

Nolan-Greg-Demarcus-Gerald/Lance-Kyle/Lance would be small but very quick.

Kyle would get expeernce defending three completely different post sets with a Luke Schenscher type in Zoubek, a James Mays/Trevor Booker/James Gist type in Lance though he is probably not as advanced on Offense yet, and a Pittsnoggle type in Taylor King.

Like Chuck, I am wondering is K mimics the el Deano wholesale 5 subbing as he did when faced with a similar probelm on Team USA where he could in close games revert to his top 6 or 7.

Since none of Duke's PGs are totally proven to be self sufficient, I would not be surprised to often have two of Paulus-Scheyer-Smith on the floor together unless Kyle adopts the Josh point-forward or point-post role in press breaking.

The second lineup of Scheyer-Pocius-(King/McClure)-(Lance/McClure/King)-(Zoubek/Lance/King) would almost have to play zone when Zoubs and Taylor are both in, whereas conventional wisdom says K rarely does this but does employ zone concepts in his man to man.

If nothing else though, they would get some practice in zones simulating the next Duke foe who employs a lot of zone.

The platoon system would give Duke oponents an awful lot to have to prepare for.

Regardles of how many coach K actually puts into games come ACC play, the depth in practice every day will help each of them be better players and be prepared for most any situation Duke will encounter except for the two brutes teams like Tyler/Deon, but ACC does not have many teams with both dominant bigs and experienced PGs, usually one or other.

mgtr
07-18-2007, 05:51 PM
Wow! A two-platoon system with one playing zone. Either it is July or you folks are smoking some strange stuff! I will readily admit that it would be fun to see, but I think K is more the kind of coach to mould players into his system than the kind of coach who adapts the system to the players he has.
Players come and go (and more recently go often), but the system has worked pretty well over the years. I expect that K recruits for the system, and already has a good idea which parts fit where.
I am betting that by January we see a 7-8 player rotation. Prior to that, I would like to see a more wide open style of substitution, but that may just be a dream.

yancem
07-18-2007, 07:21 PM
Um, Demarcus is the leading scorer in CALIFORNIA STATE HISTORY. Little tidbit you might not have been aware of. His offense is well beyond Nate's.

Also, as someone else mentioned, subbing out Nate was a strategic decision to change the composition of our lineup. Duhon and Nate did not directly compete for minutes at a position, but rather K decided to go with a quicker team, which meant going smaller. If K wanted to do that in this case, he would probably remove Paulus or Scheyer and go with Smith, not remove Nelson. Nelson is fast and athletic, so if K wanted to go with a "running" team, he would take out someone slower like those two.

I am well aware that Nelson is the leading scorer in California state history. This is one of the main reasons that I had such high expectations for him. In watching him the past three years I am unsure how he reached such a record. His offense revolves almost entirely on layups/dunks and 3 pointers. I am not sure I have seen him take a shot between 5'-20'. Also, I'm not sure if anyone keeps this kind of stat, but I am pretty sure that he has lead the team if not the conference in shots blocked the past couple of years.

As for you notion that Duhon and James didn't compete for minutes, where does that come from. James was the starting shooting guard for the first half- 3/4 of the season and Duhon was the starting shooting guard the last half - 1/4 of the season. Duhon did not consistently play the point until his sophomore season. So they were in direct competition.

By the way, James averaged 11 ppg in 2000 (his junior year) while Battier averaged 17.4ppg, Carrawell 16.9 ppg, Williams 14.5, and Boozer 13 ppg on a team that went 29-5, won the ACC tournament and advanced to sweet sixteen. Nelson by comparison averaged 14.1 on the worst (at least in terms of record) team of the past 10 years. I'm not sure how you put him at high level in the Duke hierarchy than James.

All that being said, your one point about going with a quicker team is solid.

SilkyJ
07-18-2007, 08:01 PM
His offense revolves almost entirely on layups/dunks and 3 pointers. I am not sure I have seen him take a shot between 5'-20'. Also, I'm not sure if anyone keeps this kind of stat, but I am pretty sure that he has lead the team if not the conference in shots blocked the past couple of years.

Nate didn't have much of a midrange game either. Not to mention he shot like 33% from 3 for his career whereas demarc shot 41% as a soph and about 36% last year.

I also think that K encourages him to drive because his athleticism is so great that if he could finish just a little better (which will come) and draw fouls with his hangtime, then he could easily be averaging a lot more points (if he could knock down a few more FTs and finish some more open layups). I think the addition of Nolan this year will help him on all aspects of his game as he wont have to try as hard on Defense and will have more energy and be able to score with more consistency, especially late in games.



As for you notion that Duhon and James didn't compete for minutes, where does that come from. James was the starting shooting guard for the first half- 3/4 of the season and Duhon was the starting shooting guard the last half - 1/4 of the season. Duhon did not consistently play the point until his sophomore season. So they were in direct competition.

Several points: 1st off your facts about when they were starting are simply incorrect unless you are including the postseason. Duhon did not start his first game until the LAST game of the regular season, which was AT UNC, and from then on he started the entire postseason. If you include the postseason, he started for exactly 1/4 of "the season" so maybe thats what you meant.

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=123&season=2000-01

That not withstanding, the notion that Duhon was the starting SG when he was starting is ridiculous, and the same goes for James. I'll start with Duhon: Jwill was always a real SG or combo guard and Duhon was brought in to give him time off the ball. Just because Duhon didn't bring the ball up the court EVERY time doesn't mean he wasn't the PG. JWill was the best player in the country, so yea, he would bring the ball up some of the time.

As for James: Dunleavy was the SG on offense really, and James was more of a Wing Forward. James was a physical specimen, and his inability to consistently knock down the outside shot compared with Dunleavy as a good shooter meant that james was more of an inside compliment to Dunleavy. James was literally the most ripped Duke player I have ever seen.

If anything, James was competing with Dunleavy for time, b/c when K decided he wanted to go with a smaller team, he had to either play Dunleavy or James at 3, and he chose Dunleavy.


By the way, James averaged 11 ppg in 2000 (his junior year) while Battier averaged 17.4ppg, Carrawell 16.9 ppg, Williams 14.5, and Boozer 13 ppg on a team that went 29-5, won the ACC tournament and advanced to sweet sixteen. Nelson by comparison averaged 14.1 on the worst (at least in terms of record) team of the past 10 years.


You do have a good point about James being on a much better team. But that was his 4th year don't forget (his 2nd full season), and demarcus had his 2nd full season last year, with a year inbetween b/c of that foot injury. Not to mention his 1st year he had a injured hand the whole time.



I'm not sure how you put him at high level in the Duke hierarchy than James.

I'm not trying to put Demarcus ahead of James in the hierarchy. All I said was that comparing the two situations was apples to oranges.

SilkyJ
07-18-2007, 08:06 PM
Wow! A two-platoon system with one playing zone. Either it is July or you folks are smoking some strange stuff! I will readily admit that it would be fun to see, but I think K is more the kind of coach to mould players into his system than the kind of coach who adapts the system to the players he has.

Agreed. K will NEVER do that, and I think your explanation of why is spot on.

yancem
07-18-2007, 09:41 PM
Nate didn't have much of a midrange game either. Not to mention he shot like 33% from 3 for his career whereas demarc shot 41% as a soph and about 36% last year.

I'm not sure a 3% difference in career 3 point shooting is much of a difference.


Several points: 1st off your facts about when they were starting are simply incorrect unless you are including the postseason. Duhon did not start his first game until the LAST game of the regular season, which was AT UNC, and from then on he started the entire postseason. If you include the postseason, he started for exactly 1/4 of "the season" so maybe thats what you meant.

Of course I'm including the postseason, those games count too.


That not withstanding, the notion that Duhon was the starting SG when he was starting is ridiculous, and the same goes for James. I'll start with Duhon: Jwill was always a real SG or combo guard and Duhon was brought in to give him time off the ball. Just because Duhon didn't bring the ball up the court EVERY time doesn't mean he wasn't the PG. JWill was the best player in the country, so yea, he would bring the ball up some of the time.

As for James: Dunleavy was the SG on offense really, and James was more of a Wing Forward. James was a physical specimen, and his inability to consistently knock down the outside shot compared with Dunleavy as a good shooter meant that james was more of an inside compliment to Dunleavy. James was literally the most ripped Duke player I have ever seen.

If anything, James was competing with Dunleavy for time, b/c when K decided he wanted to go with a smaller team, he had to either play Dunleavy or James at 3, and he chose Dunleavy.

I disagree. First Duhon was considered a better shooter than JWill coming out of highschool. My memory may be wrong but I remember Duhon and JWill playing in the backcourt together. Plus Dunleveay started all 39 games that year while James started 28 and Duhon started 10. It would seem to me that stat shows competition for minutes between James and Duhon not Dunleavy. Also, while James was ripped (more than Maggette?) he was more athletic and quicker defensively so was better sooted to guard the 2 spot.


You do have a good point about James being on a much better team. But that was his 4th year don't forget (his 2nd full season), and demarcus had his 2nd full season last year, with a year inbetween b/c of that foot injury. Not to mention his 1st year he had a injured hand the whole time.

Actually, James was injured much of his Freshman year also. If you look at their total games play over their Freshman-Junior years, James only played 7 more games than Nelson.



I'm not trying to put Demarcus ahead of James in the hierarchy. All I said was that comparing the two situations was apples to oranges.

I'm trying to demonstrate that the situations are truly apples and oranges, but you did say that James was a role player vs Nelson being a team leading scorer. Sounds like a different hierarchy to me. Eitherway my main point at the begining was that there is precedence to starting an underclassman over a proven senior.

SilkyJ
07-18-2007, 10:21 PM
I'm not sure a 3% difference in career 3 point shooting is much of a difference.

I intentionally did not count Demarcus' freshman year b/c his hand was so taped up it was like he had a brace on it, and it was clearly not indicative of his shooting.



I disagree. First Duhon was considered a better shooter than JWill coming out of highschool..

Who cares what Duhon was considered out of HS, JWill was 1.75 seasons removed from HS and Duhon was 29 games into his college career. I think coach had a good idea of who could shoot at this level. Also, Jwill shot 43% from 3 that year and duhon was at 36%, so ur point is just wrong.:

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=375

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=123




My memory may be wrong but I remember Duhon and JWill playing in the backcourt together. Plus Dunleveay started all 39 games that year while James started 28 and Duhon started 10. It would seem to me that stat shows competition for minutes between James and Duhon not Dunleavy. Also, while James was ripped (more than Maggette?) he was more athletic and quicker defensively so was better sooted to guard the 2 spot.

Here is where I start to get Fuzzy: They did play in the backcourt together, I said they brought Duhon in so Jwill could play OFF THE BALL, not off the court (which is what I'm guessing you thought I meantI. Off the ball means moving to the "off-guard" or shooting guard spot. He (JWILL) was a pretty good shooter.

This meant that Duhon and Jwill were the guards, and Battier and and Boozer were already a lock for the PF/C spots, which left one spot open at Small Forward. There would be only two people who could start here: James or Dunleavy. Now do you see what I am saying?

Also, Maggette was ripped, but James had bigger guns if I recall correctly. Would have been interesting to see who had less body fat (On a side note: I hear Gerald is absolutely RIPPED right now...)

More fuzziness to follow...


I'm trying to demonstrate that the situations are truly apples and oranges,.

Wait, so you agree that the situations are different??



but you did say that James was a role player vs Nelson being a team leading scorer. Sounds like a different hierarchy to me. Eitherway my main point at the begining was that there is precedence to starting an underclassman over a proven senior.

To me, its a heck of lot easier to understand why K would replace a "role" player as opposed to the team's leading scorer, and for the record I think Nelson will be our leading scorer again next year at about 16ppg...not to mention, AGAIN, that the replacement was for STYLE, coach wanted to go with a smaller/faster lineup, not because Duhon was better than James or anything like that. You have to read into things a little more, its not just black and white.

Bob Green
07-18-2007, 10:30 PM
Let's compare James and Nelson: They both were highly recruited and touted as likely starters until they both had injury plagued early years. They both are excellent defenders and strong athletes but both had offensive limitations. And they both had promising younger players come in behind them.



I'd like to take the comparison one step further. Duke won the NC in James' Senior season. Maybe that is a good sign.

I do not believe Nate James had offensive limitations. He won the 3-point contest at the McDonald's All-American Game. His offense was limited by injuries.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

mapei
07-18-2007, 11:15 PM
I think Nelson will play more than any Blue Devil next season other than Paulus, barring injuries. I also think Nelson has severe limitations as an offensive player; he provides a great illustration of how HS stats don't translate into equivalent NCAA success.* Henderson and Smith may well have bigger upsides (I hope so), but K is loyal to his guys, and neither one will displace Nelson next year except as subs.

*Like Laettner and Ferry illustrate that NCAA stats don't translate into equivalent success in the NBA.

mgtr
07-18-2007, 11:29 PM
I agree about Nelson. As posted in another thread, Nelson, Paulus and Singler appear to be locks for lots of time on the court. Nelson has obvious capability, he just needs to play more under control (eg, don't miss one foot shots!) (or free throws at the end of the game). Paulus is my guy - nuff said there. Singler seems a natural for the team. The rest of the team is going to be scrapping for PT. Henderson showed a lot at the end of the season, and should play a good bit. Scheyer will make contributions in a variety of areas. We all hope that Zoubek and Thomas have improved a bunch and will make real contributions. McClure will definitely get minutes. Smith seems to be the real deal, but isn't likely to displace Paulus, as you said. I have a lot of hope for King, but we will have to see. Pocius, well he certainly has his fans on this board, and I hope he is injury free and can prove something this year.

ACCBBallFan
07-19-2007, 12:34 AM
I agree about Nelson. As posted in another thread, Nelson, Paulus and Singler appear to be locks for lots of time on the court. Nelson has obvious capability, he just needs to play more under control (eg, don't miss one foot shots!) (or free throws at the end of the game). Paulus is my guy - nuff said there. Singler seems a natural for the team. The rest of the team is going to be scrapping for PT. Henderson showed a lot at the end of the season, and should play a good bit. Scheyer will make contributions in a variety of areas. We all hope that Zoubek and Thomas have improved a bunch and will make real contributions. McClure will definitely get minutes. Smith seems to be the real deal, but isn't likely to displace Paulus, as you said. I have a lot of hope for King, but we will have to see. Pocius, well he certainly has his fans on this board, and I hope he is injury free and can prove something this year.Pretty much agree.
My guess if Nolan starts, Henderson does not, since Paulus-Nelson-Singler will be in the lineup.

With center by committee (Thomas/King/Zoubek) all probably seeing action due to foul trouble and sometimes also having to include Singler/McClure in post with Henderson forced to play 4.

The plus is that it gives foes 3 totally different sets to have to prepare for and masks the weakness at that spot,

with no real concerns which center(s) gets in foul trouble unless all three do, and even then Duke still can play its best 5 in small ball but only as a last resort.

Scheyer and Smith compete for who backs up Nelson at SG and who can best play PG in emergency for Paulus. This may also vary based on opponent.

Pocius and McClure are capable subs for Gerald and Kyle, or Nelson can move over when Gerald needs rest or is in foul trouble.

Paulus/ (Scheyer/Smith will vary based on opponent)
Nelson/ (Scheyer/Smith will vary based on opponent)
Henderson/ (Pocius)
Singler/ (McClure)
(Thomas/King/Zoubek) - center by committee that will vary based on opponent

yancem
07-19-2007, 09:58 AM
Who cares what Duhon was considered out of HS, JWill was 1.75 seasons removed from HS and Duhon was 29 games into his college career. I think coach had a good idea of who could shoot at this level. Also, Jwill shot 43% from 3 that year and duhon was at 36%, so ur point is just wrong.:

Since when does shooting percentage dictate who plays the point and who plays the two? If JWill had the ball the most and dished the most dimes then he was playing the point. In the 10 games Duhon started JWill lead the team in assists 6 games (two co with Duhon and others), Duhon lead the team in 3 games (two co with JWill). Someone correct me if I'm wrong but K didn't move JWill of the ball until '02.


This meant that Duhon and Jwill were the guards, and Battier and and Boozer were already a lock for the PF/C spots, which left one spot open at Small Forward. There would be only two people who could start here: James or Dunleavy. Now do you see what I am saying?

Regardless what position is being played, if one player is usually substituted for another, then they are in competition for minutes. If the preferred substitution is to insert the back-up point for the center and everyone else switches positions then who is taking the minutes from the starting center?

Even if that isn't so, I remember James playing more the 2 than the 3 and Duhon playing more 2 than 1 which by logic dictates that they primarily played the same position.




Wait, so you agree that the situations are different??

No, I had a typo. I meant to say aren't apples and oranges. Ooops!


To me, its a heck of lot easier to understand why K would replace a "role" player as opposed to the team's leading scorer, and for the record I think Nelson will be our leading scorer again next year at about 16ppg...not to mention, AGAIN, that the replacement was for STYLE, coach wanted to go with a smaller/faster lineup, not because Duhon was better than James or anything like that. You have to read into things a little more, its not just black and white.

Yes, I get that K inserted Duhon to change the style but Henderson and Scheyer both bring different things to the table than Nelson (not necessarily better, for that we will have to see) and if they are more consistent or offering more of what the team needs at the time then maybe K decides to go with a different style. Maybe you need to look more at the potential for next year vs strictly the numbers from last year. Jumping from the Freshman year to the Sophomore year usually means bigger increases in production than from Junior year to Senior year. Both Henderson and Scheyer have the potential and talent to possibly leapfrog Nelson. I'm not saying it's going to happen, I just think that it is more likely then Smith coming in and beating Paulus out for the starting point spot, which was what I originally said.

Lastly, if Nelson leads the team in scoring at 16 ppg next year, then I think that we could be in for a long season. That is unless there are 2 other players in the 14-15 range and 1-2 in the 9-11 range. If we get that kind of points distribution we should be alright. Nelson would have to spread his scoring out a little better though. When you leading scorer tends to score 75% of his point in the first 5 minutes of each half, things can get tricky like they did last year.

yancem
07-19-2007, 09:59 AM
I'd like to take the comparison one step further. Duke won the NC in James' Senior season. Maybe that is a good sign.

I do not believe Nate James had offensive limitations. He won the 3-point contest at the McDonald's All-American Game. His offense was limited by injuries.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Thank you, I agree!

SilkyJ
07-19-2007, 10:48 AM
Since when does shooting percentage dictate who plays the point and who plays the two? If JWill had the ball the most and dished the most dimes then he was playing the point. In the 10 games Duhon started JWill lead the team in assists 6 games (two co with Duhon and others), Duhon lead the team in 3 games (two co with JWill). Someone correct me if I'm wrong but K didn't move JWill of the ball until '02.

You're not paying attention. YOU said Duhon was a better shooter than Jwill in HS, which (I thought) meant you were implying that coach K wanted to put Duhon at the 2 b/c he thought he was a better shooter. My point was that K already knew who the better shooter was b/c of their percentages that year (after a full regular season) and it was JWill.

At the end of the day, I guess we just disagree in general on this point, not much use arguing anymore, but the notion that Nate James and Chris Duhon were playing the same position is ridiculous.

As to your point below, thats sort of what I am hoping for, I think we will get several people chipping in at the 9-11 range. I think Nelson should get aruond 16ppg, Paulus around 15, Scheyer around 10, Henderson, 11, Singler 11, Thomas, 9, Smith 8, Zoubek 7 and from there it all depends on much King/McClure/Pocious play.

With Greg's great shooting ability I could see him actually scoring more like 16-17ppg, assuming he doesn't lose minutes to Nolan, and averages about 30-32mpg.



Lastly, if Nelson leads the team in scoring at 16 ppg next year, then I think that we could be in for a long season. That is unless there are 2 other players in the 14-15 range and 1-2 in the 9-11 range. If we get that kind of points distribution we should be alright. Nelson would have to spread his scoring out a little better though. When you leading scorer tends to score 75% of his point in the first 5 minutes of each half, things can get tricky like they did last year.

mapei
07-19-2007, 05:19 PM
Re our "center by committee," I have a hard time seeing anyone but Z playing the 5. Everybody is saying that Lance is a capable big but, to me, he may *be* big but he doesn't *play* big in the sense that Shel, McBob, Shav, or Boozer did. I just don't see it. To me he seems like a 4 (or even a 3 without much offense).

That leaves King (King?) who, by some accounts, has a weakness playing defense and, by all accounts, is a deadly shot from outside. That hardly seems like a center to me. I wonder if the poster who wrote Zoubek-Thomas-King actually meant Zoubek-Thomas-Singler?

I guess I see Duke as a team with only one power big man, and that's Zoubek. Playing other lineups is essentially making a decision to go without a center and maybe without a true power big man at all. Duke is seldom a good rebounding team, but next year may add meaning to that phrase. We're loaded at 2-3-4 and paper-thin at 1 and 5.

yancem
07-19-2007, 06:14 PM
At the end of the day, I guess we just disagree in general on this point, not much use arguing anymore, but the notion that Nate James and Chris Duhon were playing the same position is ridiculous.

I will agree to disagree about Nelson's status but to say that my notion that James and Duhon both played the 2 in 2001 is ridiculous makes no sense. If Duhon comes in for James and Williams continues to be the primary ball handler then what different positions were they playing. I'll admit that James and Dunleavy both switched between the 2 and 3 and that Duhon played the point when Williams was out, but I'm pretty sure that Dunleavy spent the majority of his time at the 3 defensively and in Dukes offense the 2 and 3 spots are pretty indistinguishable, so how were James and Duhon not both playing the off guard?

cato
07-19-2007, 06:29 PM
I will agree to disagree about Nelson's status but to say that my notion that James and Duhon both played the 2 in 2001 is ridiculous makes no sense. If Duhon comes in for James and Williams continues to be the primary ball handler then what different positions were they playing. I'll admit that James and Dunleavy both switched between the 2 and 3 and that Duhon played the point when Williams was out, but I'm pretty sure that Dunleavy spent the majority of his time at the 3 defensively and in Dukes offense the 2 and 3 spots are pretty indistinguishable, so how were James and Duhon not both playing the off guard?

Williams didn't have primary ball handling responsibilities at the end of the year. If anything, Duhon brought the ball up more often, but they certainly shared primary ball handling responsibilities.

At any rate, going to the mat over whether or not J-Will or Duhon played the 1 is silly. Duhon, James, Williams and Dunleavy all had different places in the offense that season. Why worry about who was "point guard"? Duhon helped steady the offense and calm things down when necessary. And he could make teams pay when they cheated off of him. James was strong enough to mix it up inside and get to the line. And Jason . . . ah, Jason. He was a threat whenever he touched the ball, whether creating his own shot off the dribble, running the pick and roll, pushing the ball in traffic, driving to the rim, drawing the defense and dishing to Boozer or finding Dun on the secondary break.

SilkyJ
07-19-2007, 10:34 PM
Re our "center by committee," I have a hard time seeing anyone but Z playing the 5. Everybody is saying that Lance is a capable big but, to me, he may *be* big but he doesn't *play* big in the sense that Shel, McBob, Shav, or Boozer did. I just don't see it. To me he seems like a 4 (or even a 3 without much offense).

Agree 100% re: Lance being vs playing "big"



That leaves King (King?) who, by some accounts, has a weakness playing defense and, by all accounts, is a deadly shot from outside. That hardly seems like a center to me. I wonder if the poster who wrote Zoubek-Thomas-King actually meant Zoubek-Thomas-Singler?

It was ACCbballfan, and he did NOT mean Singler, he meant King. Meaning, he thinks we should play center by committee with Zou-Lance-King. He has been calling for this for sometime...

you are right, re: his strengths and weakness, but his weakness on D is on the perimeter and apparently has long enough arms, and enough of a "nose" for the ball on the boards, that he coiuld guard the 5 in tight spots...but I agree with you that it is more likely Singler will guard the 5. He has guarded lots of big men and played them at least decently (Kevin love...)



I guess I see Duke as a team with only one power big man, and that's Zoubek. Playing other lineups is essentially making a decision to go without a center and maybe without a true power big man at all. Duke is seldom a good rebounding team, but next year may add meaning to that phrase. We're loaded at 2-3-4 and paper-thin at 1 and 5.

Yup, yup, yup. I think Zoubek could really make this season for us, which is why his injury reallllly worries me...

ACCBBallFan
07-19-2007, 11:09 PM
Agree 100% re: Lance being vs playing "big"



It was ACCbballfan, and he did NOT mean Singler, he meant King. Meaning, he thinks we should play center by committee with Zou-Lance-King. He has been calling for this for sometime...

you are right, re: his strengths and weakness, but his weakness on D is on the perimeter and apparently has long enough arms, and enough of a "nose" for the ball on the boards, that he coiuld guard the 5 in tight spots...but I agree with you that it is more likely Singler will guard the 5. He has guarded lots of big men and played them at least decently (Kevin Love...)

Yup, yup, yup. I think Zoubek could really make this season for us, which is why his injury reallllly worries me...
-----------------
SilkyJ interpreted my post correctly, other than that last comment. Taylor King was actually an AAU teammate of Kevin Love who did an OK job playing post defense when Love was sitting due to foul trouble.

I did not mean Singler since it does not make sense to jeopardize his PT getting him in early Foul Trouble, at least not as first, until several options of imitation center have fouled out

I agree Zoubek is the only true center, but he does not have the stamina to go 40 minutes and would foul out by then anyway, assuming coach K didn't sit him down for too many turnovers.

With center by committee, other than getting the other team into the bonus sooner, you are not as concerned whether any one guy or more than one fouls out among Zoubek-Lance-King-Dave. Though Duke can afford it a little more, just like last year when offense went haywire after Josh got into foul trouble, cannot afford to lose Singler.

If all these "centers" on defense were to foul out, Duke can still revert to its best 5 of Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (as fifth option at 5), and still have Marty and Nolan in reserve but not play small ball from the get go, just when it is required.

That happens to be at end of game rather than not having Singler available and having to go with less than best 5 at crunch time.

Not saying this will work in the NCAA tourney, just against most, not all, of the ACC teams, and if Duke gets lucky some of these centers by committee will be better at end of season than they are now.

Only way I see Taylor King getting any PT come ACC play is if he can guard post while Zoubs is resting, because by all accounts no way he can guard ACC wings. King would just play his usual offensive hoist them up game while drawing the post guy out to give the slashers more room to operate.

With three totally different styles, Zoubek a traditional big, Lance/Dave pretty similar undersized centers, and Kingsnoggle, it gives the opponent a lot to have to prepare for, some of it wasted if K goes with less centers that game.

I will be the first to admit that Duke did not recruit Taylor King to play center, but the same can be said about every guy except Zoubek, and better than playing 4 on 5 when Zoubs needs a breather or is in foul trouble or injured.

Just have to improvise and nobody does that any better than coach K.

mapei
07-19-2007, 11:38 PM
I guess - but I think we are really exposed in that situation if our opponent has a powerful 4 or 5.

This isn't to say, BTW, that I think Zoubek can play 40 minutes or even that I have a lot of confidence in him as a ready-for-prime-time center. Mostly, I just think we are screwed when it comes to strong big men; we either didn't recruit them or lost the ones we recruited to someone else, other than Z.

Saratoga2
07-20-2007, 11:20 AM
I think Nelson will play more than any Blue Devil next season other than Paulus, barring injuries. I also think Nelson has severe limitations as an offensive player; he provides a great illustration of how HS stats don't translate into equivalent NCAA success.* Henderson and Smith may well have bigger upsides (I hope so), but K is loyal to his guys, and neither one will displace Nelson next year except as subs.

*Like Laettner and Ferry illustrate that NCAA stats don't translate into equivalent success in the NBA.

I agree with you about Nelson. He has limitations handling the ball, he still drives into double teams, his outside shooting is only average and his foul shooting a liability. The wrist injury may hamper his use of that hand for going left as well. He is a very good defender and rebounds well for a guy 6' 2 3/4" in stocking feet. Because he is experienced, coach will start him. I have no problem with that.

Nolan is an unknown at the college level so we need to adopt a wait and see attitude. He appears to be quick, have a decent handle and very good outside shot. He probably will be a threat to slash to the basket. Maybe he will sub for Paulus at times, but he also will probably sub for Nelson, especially late in the half and at the end of the game.

By the end of the year, coach K will have a lot or reassessing to do with these two and also with the three other very solid guards on the team. All should play reasonable minutes and perhaps an up paced running game is the best model for this team.

Saratoga2
07-20-2007, 11:29 AM
I guess - but I think we are really exposed in that situation if our opponent has a powerful 4 or 5.

This isn't to say, BTW, that I think Zoubek can play 40 minutes or even that I have a lot of confidence in him as a ready-for-prime-time center. Mostly, I just think we are screwed when it comes to strong big men; we either didn't recruit them or lost the ones we recruited to someone else, other than Z.


Again, I agree with the general thought that Zoubek is the only person on the team that will contest with other big bodies inside. Even he is not the most physical player, but at 7' tall and 266 pounds he certainly has the right physique. If you look at Aaron Gray of Pittsburgh last year, he was frequently subbed in an out and needed the rest when he was. Zoubek will probably also not be able to hold up for more than in the high 20 minute range, if his play warrants that.

Guys like Singler and Thomas are not going to be able to contest the big and strong people such as Florida had last year. It will be interesting to see how coach K tackles that problem. Perhaps we need to recruit and retain one or two power players each year.

SilkyJ
07-20-2007, 11:39 AM
-----------------
SilkyJ interpreted my post correctly, other than that last comment. Taylor King was actually an AAU teammate of Kevin Love who did an OK job playing post defense when Love was sitting due to foul trouble.

I did not mean Singler since it does not make sense to jeopardize his PT getting him in early Foul Trouble, at least not as first, until several options of imitation center have fouled out


Don't you mean Singler was an AAU teammate of Love? I could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure they were AAU teammates.

Also, They played against eachother on their HS school squads, and Singler would have to guard him sometimes, and I remember reading somewhere that he did an adequate job considering Love's size advantage. That is what I was referring to.

JasonEvans
07-20-2007, 12:39 PM
Don't you mean Singler was an AAU teammate of Love? I could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure they were AAU teammates.


Sorry, but you are mistaken. Singler and Love, while being rivals in Oregon who clashed fairly often there, were not on the same AAU team. Love played for the SoCal All-stars, a ridiculously talented AAU team that also featured Taylor King and PG Brandon Jennings. Jennings is the stud junior who is currently at Oak Hill and was a teammate of Nolan Smith last year (the reason Smith did not play PG for Oak Hill). Jennings is committed to Arizona and is clearly one of the top PGs in the 2008 class.

And, yes, when Kevin Love got in foul trouble it was Taylor King who was asked to guard the opposing team's best big man... a job King apparently did quite well according to most reports.

-Jason "I think King will find a nice role for himself this season as a shooter and post defender-- but he must get a lot stronger to earn major minutes" Evans

Clipsfan
07-20-2007, 12:54 PM
Nelson may have been our co-mvp last year, leading scorer, and 2nd leading rebounder but compare his numbers to James junior and senior year 11.0/12.3 points and 4.5/5.2 rebounds. Unless Nelson explodes this year (would be nice but not many people make huge jumps junior to senior years) his numbers aren't that much different than Jame's. And let's not forget that Jame played on stronger teams. People forget how good James was. K often said that he would have been a 3 or 4 year starter if not for the injuries. He probably would have been as good if not better than Carrawell

It's great to compare numbers across different teams, but you should realize that it's not always apples to apples. The pace of play was much greater for the teams which James was a part of, meaning that everyone got more shots and could score more points. In contrast, Duke had a fairly slow pace of play last year, leading to fewer points. Nate James was the 5th leading scorer his senior year, playing on a team that pushed the ball and had two 20 point scorers in Jay Williams and Shane Battier. The team on the whole scored more than 90 per game. Nate got to take a lot of uncontested shots as everyone focused on the rest of the team. In contrast, Nelson was the leading scorer last year and one of the key focuses of the opposing defenses. As another poster mentioned, he is not offensively limited, but rather holds the record for the most points ever in a HS career in CA. The 14 points per game he scored is probably closer to the equivalent of the 20 that Williams and Battier put up when pace of play is taken into account. In case you forget, Duke only scored about 70/game last year partially due to a slower pace.

SilkyJ
07-20-2007, 01:46 PM
Sorry, but you are mistaken. Singler and Love, while being rivals in Oregon who clashed fairly often there, were not on the same AAU team. Love played for the SoCal All-stars, a ridiculously talented AAU team that also featured Taylor King and PG Brandon Jennings. Jennings is the stud junior who is currently at Oak Hill and was a teammate of Nolan Smith last year (the reason Smith did not play PG for Oak Hill). Jennings is committed to Arizona and is clearly one of the top PGs in the 2008 class.

And, yes, when Kevin Love got in foul trouble it was Taylor King who was asked to guard the opposing team's best big man... a job King apparently did quite well according to most reports.

-Jason "I think King will find a nice role for himself this season as a shooter and post defender-- but he must get a lot stronger to earn major minutes" Evans

Actually we are both right. Singler and Love USED to play on the same AAU team, but apparently in more recent years Love teamed with King. (See links below) The more I hear about King's D down low, the more promising it seems, which is why ACCbballfan may have a point...

http://ucla.scout.com/2/494129.html
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=30879

throatybeard
07-20-2007, 04:04 PM
Also, Maggette was ripped, but James had bigger guns if I recall correctly.

http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/NateDogg.jpg

http://www.sagarmatha.com/images/freak.jpg

Edited to add: those are my guns beneath the banana in the upper left of the James pic.

ACCBBallFan
07-20-2007, 04:53 PM
Don't you mean Singler was an AAU teammate of Love? I could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure they were AAU teammates.

Also, They played against eachother on their HS school squads, and Singler would have to guard him sometimes, and I remember reading somewhere that he did an adequate job considering Love's size advantage. That is what I was referring to.Sorry for getting in late but I did mean Taylor King.

http://dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?p=29752

http://kentucky.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=888&CID=436033

http://myblogdevils.eponym.com/blog/_archives/2007/1/19/2661755.html

where Mark Watzone says " have heard people on the AAU trail calling Duke commitment, Taylor King soft. Are you kiding me? You should have been in Cameron last season when he kept powerful Southern Cal All Stars not only in the game, but led the team when UCLA bound Kevin Love went to the bench with foul trouble. King can bang better than people think! Here is his latest line - • Taylor King, Mater Dei: Had 40 points and 13 rebounds for the Monarchs, ranked No. 2 by The L.A. Times, in a 104-59 Trinity League win at Servite."

Boston Dukie
07-20-2007, 07:56 PM
I think Nelson is great because he gets to the basket, rebounds very well for a guard, he plays very good defense (long arms), and his outside shot is now "ok". Plus he is a warrior (like Nate James) who gives his heart and soul and is not afraid to mix it up.

The downside for Nelson is that he never takes a mid range shot and once he starts going to the basket he goes all the way, no matter what - this results in too many turnovers, too many charges, too many of his shots blocked, and he misses point blank shots when he gets out of control trying to bull his way to the basket (I think because he is constantly trying to draw a foul).

From watching the games, it is very clear and obvious to everyone on this board what his weakness is (as described above). Everyone talks about it all the time, and there is no real debate on this topic.

So here is my question. The team watches broken down film of every game with the coaches. Can't Nelson see what his problem is? After watching himself make the same mistake over and over and over, shouldn't a light bulb go off and he should realize exactly what he needs to work on? Shouldn't he have seen this like 5 or 10 games into his freshman year?

It just seems that he is the rare player where it is so obvious what his problem is AND it is a very fixable problem - just stop bull rushing to the basket every single time even when nothing is there. Its not like he has physical limitations or has problems that can't be fixed with a little instruction and discipline.

I just don't get it.

mgtr
07-20-2007, 08:40 PM
You and I in that situation might say, OK I need to do things differently. He, on the other hand, may say, well, I need to do the same thing but just do it better (or stronger). Then he ends up in the same situations.

SilkyJ
07-21-2007, 08:43 AM
Sorry for getting in late but I did mean Taylor King.

where Mark Watzone says " have heard people on the AAU trail calling Duke commitment, Taylor King soft. Are you kiding me? You should have been in Cameron last season when he kept powerful Southern Cal All Stars not only in the game, but led the team when UCLA bound Kevin Love went to the bench with foul trouble. King can bang better than people think! Here is his latest line - ē Taylor King, Mater Dei: Had 40 points and 13 rebounds for the Monarchs, ranked No. 2 by The L.A. Times, in a 104-59 Trinity League win at Servite."

About a months ago I jumped on your bandwagon saying that I think King can play downlow. The more I hear, the more I like...

jaimedun34
07-21-2007, 08:45 AM
You and I in that situation might say, OK I need to do things differently. He, on the other hand, may say, well, I need to do the same thing but just do it better (or stronger). Then he ends up in the same situations.

That is what I've been thinking. He has a strong enough body to take contact and finish, and I think last year he did a much better job of using his body to seal off defenders. He just needs to do it more consistently and obviously work on a mid-range shot.

I think his problem his first 2 years was that his ball handling wasn't very good, and when he would start his drives the angle to the basket would get cut off a bit and he'd have to adjust, maybe changing his direction to a spot under the basket (which is a tough shot for a 6'1" player) or it would leave him driving toward the sideline instead of the basket.

houstondukie
07-22-2007, 02:10 AM
Re our "center by committee," I have a hard time seeing anyone but Z playing the 5. Everybody is saying that Lance is a capable big but, to me, he may *be* big but he doesn't *play* big in the sense that Shel, McBob, Shav, or Boozer did. I just don't see it. To me he seems like a 4 (or even a 3 without much offense).

That leaves King (King?) who, by some accounts, has a weakness playing defense and, by all accounts, is a deadly shot from outside. That hardly seems like a center to me. I wonder if the poster who wrote Zoubek-Thomas-King actually meant Zoubek-Thomas-Singler?

I guess I see Duke as a team with only one power big man, and that's Zoubek. Playing other lineups is essentially making a decision to go without a center and maybe without a true power big man at all. Duke is seldom a good rebounding team, but next year may add meaning to that phrase. We're loaded at 2-3-4 and paper-thin at 1 and 5.

With Paulus, Nolan Smith, and Scheyer all capable of playing the point and playing it well, I don't think we should be worried about point guard depth next yr. I agree completely with you about Zoubek being our only option at the 5. I would put McClure ahead of Thomas at the 5 since McClure seems to play more like a big man.

Bob Green
07-22-2007, 02:44 AM
With Paulus, Nolan Smith, and Scheyer all capable of playing the point and playing it well, I don't think we should be worried about point guard depth next yr. I agree completely with you about Zoubek being our only option at the 5. I would put McClure ahead of Thomas at the 5 since McClure seems to play more like a big man.

The problem I have with McClure at the 5 is that he is 6'6". He is a viable option at the 4, but he cannot play the 5. IMO, McClure simply gives up too many inches that cannot be compensated for by passion and determination.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

mgtr
07-22-2007, 08:00 AM
Nevertheless, McClure may be the best hope to sub for Zoubek. And, he has five fouls to give.

whereinthehellami
07-22-2007, 09:13 AM
From watching the games, it is very clear and obvious to everyone on this board what his weakness is (as described above). Everyone talks about it all the time, and there is no real debate on this topic.

So here is my question. The team watches broken down film of every game with the coaches. Can't Nelson see what his problem is? After watching himself make the same mistake over and over and over, shouldn't a light bulb go off and he should realize exactly what he needs to work on? Shouldn't he have seen this like 5 or 10 games into his freshman year?

It just seems that he is the rare player where it is so obvious what his problem is AND it is a very fixable problem - just stop bull rushing to the basket every single time even when nothing is there. Its not like he has physical limitations or has problems that can't be fixed with a little instruction and discipline.

I just don't get it.

Physical attributes are only part of the equation. Mental attributes and the "intangibles" also play a part of the make-up of a player. For some players, the speed of the game slows down for them, other players see angles that don't exist for everyone else. College basketball is played at a high level, where guys are tall and fast, decisions are processed in a second. I'll never forget seeing Dunleavy (pretty much at court level) lead a break against UCONN and thinking how tall, fast, and smooth the players were. The court is alot smaller in person with ACC caliber players on it than it appears from above on TV. Passing lanes seem non-existent and holes to the basket close in a slpit second. That is where i think Nelson and alot of guys gets in trouble, making split second adjustments. And thats what made guys like Larry Bird so amazing.

whereinthehellami
07-22-2007, 09:23 AM
The problem I have with McClure at the 5 is that he is 6'6". He is a viable option at the 4, but he cannot play the 5. IMO, McClure simply gives up too many inches that cannot be compensated for by passion and determination.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

McClure plays alot bigger than 6'6". He has great energy, deceptive athletiscm, and a great understanding of the game. McClure is one of those players that always seems to be in the right place at the right time and flying around the ball. I remember him doing a good job against Hanny and even blocking a jumpshot by Hanny. As long as he has confidence back in his knees I like McClure and Singler to split time at the 5.

mcdukie
07-22-2007, 11:05 AM
I love how hard McClure plays but if we are playing a 6'6 guy at center we are in trouble.

ACCBBallFan
07-22-2007, 08:57 PM
I love how hard McClure plays but if we are playing a 6'6 guy at center we are in trouble.I am sure Jim Sumner can provide examples where Duke had centers that size, but

I tend to agree with you that McClure should be Duke's 4th or 5th option at center depending on how late in the game it is, with Singler also 4th or 5th since Kyle is too valuable to risk getting a couple of quick fouls.

By default that leaves Zoubek-Lance-King as first three post options with Zoubek being the only true center if he truly is a player this year. Zoubs needs to be given every opportunity to play.

Hopefully help is on the way with Riek-Czyz-Monroe but this year K just has to do the best he can with the cards dealt/remaining.

Losing Josh after two years was not a surprise but losing Boateng and Boykin and not getting Patterson put him in this situaton.

whereinthehellami
07-23-2007, 08:47 AM
I love how hard McClure plays but if we are playing a 6'6 guy at center we are in trouble.

In terms of the traditional center position we are in trouble, no doubht about it. In my mind, this season is about patching that hole as best as possible and looking at various match-ups based upon the opponent at hand. Against top tier teams with a traditional center, Duke is going to take some lumps.

greybeard
07-23-2007, 11:41 AM
I think Nelson is great because he gets to the basket, rebounds very well for a guard, he plays very good defense (long arms), and his outside shot is now "ok". Plus he is a warrior (like Nate James) who gives his heart and soul and is not afraid to mix it up.

The downside for Nelson is that he never takes a mid range shot and once he starts going to the basket he goes all the way, no matter what - this results in too many turnovers, too many charges, too many of his shots blocked, and he misses point blank shots when he gets out of control trying to bull his way to the basket (I think because he is constantly trying to draw a foul).

From watching the games, it is very clear and obvious to everyone on this board what his weakness is (as described above). Everyone talks about it all the time, and there is no real debate on this topic.

So here is my question. The team watches broken down film of every game with the coaches. Can't Nelson see what his problem is? After watching himself make the same mistake over and over and over, shouldn't a light bulb go off and he should realize exactly what he needs to work on? Shouldn't he have seen this like 5 or 10 games into his freshman year?

It just seems that he is the rare player where it is so obvious what his problem is AND it is a very fixable problem - just stop bull rushing to the basket every single time even when nothing is there. Its not like he has physical limitations or has problems that can't be fixed with a little instruction and discipline.

I just don't get it.

Possible, in fact likely, that DeMarcus has learned alot from the first two years. Last year, the team definitely needed some inside scoring, needed to make people guard the basket. It was so difficult getting it to McRob, that DeMarcus might well have been under instructions to try to get to the basket. Since shooting last year was a final 7-seconds-in-the-clock kind of thing, you saw DeMarcus with the ball in his hands, towards the end of the clock, the defense locked down on the exterior, he needs to take it and does.

My thought, when the team as a whole "went" earlier their offense was much smoother and more effective. On the other hand, creating more shots for the other team was against K's religion (only kidding here, relax) last year. This year I believe that they will be going "earlier" because they will lack the defensive anchor (McRob) for a lock down half court defense and will need to score the ball more and I doubt that it will come enough for runouts.

"For what it's worth," gents, only "for what its worth" Blood Sweat and Tears or the Buffalo Springfield,

grey "I don't remember too good anymore, but that never holds me back" beard.

ACCBBallFan
07-23-2007, 04:43 PM
Duke has 11 very good players and probably no great players (this year).

To me, it comes down to:

are you trying to win the game while possibly risking a loss or

are you trying not to lose it.

Paulus-Henderson-Nelson-Singler are the core to both try to win and not to lose.

Guys like Zoubek-King-Smith-Pocius are the former high risk/high reward

while Scheyer-Lance-McClure are the latter, steady but not overpowering. better suited to protecting a lead than creating one.

So many possibilities for Starter/Sub and during the game will depend on the situation.

PG: Paulus/Smith with Paulus sometimes on wing when Smith plays

Wings: 2 of (Henderson/Scheyer/Nelson)/ other of those 3 plus Pocius

Forward: Singler/McClure

Center: Zoubek/ (Lance/Kingsnoggle)