2017 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[FadedTackyShirt]

If he does reclassify and come to Duke I can see Duke losing Bagley/Carter/Allen/Duval/Trent to the NBA and lose Bolden/Delaurier to transfers.

No clue on Javin, but doubt Bolden plays two more seasons for Duke. Hoping for a great individual and team season and off to the NBA rather than a transfer.

[slower]

I haven't seen any buzz about UNC and Zion. Duke, U.K., and South Carolina are the ones I have seen a lot of.

Thank goodness. That guy is an absolute monster.

[Troublemaker]

Disagree. Plenty of minutes for three bigs in Coach K's system.

Not so much for the fourth big, which is where Javin would find himself, if Bagley came aboard (unless Javin could make it as a perimeter player, but that seems unlikely after our admittedly brief look at him last year).

Yeah, I can see that.

I guess I was thinking more in terms of minutes lost. I figure Marques would go from like 25 mpg as a starter to 10 mpg off the bench, and that 15 mpg difference would lead the team. But, you're right, it's possible Javin could lose something similar and could be out of the rotation altogether.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, I can see that.

I guess I was thinking more in terms of minutes lost. I figure Marques would go from like 25 mpg as a starter to 10 mpg off the bench, and that 15 mpg difference would lead the team. But, you're right, it's possible Javin could lose something similar and could be out of the rotation altogether.

I think with a roster that's fairly thin on the perimeter, with no obvious SF-who-can-play-PF, the third big will play around 20mpg (see, e.g., MP1 in 2012). So Marques won't even lose as many mpg as you suggest. But going from 3rd big to 4th big could move Javin from 20mpg to 5. A lot more "lost" minutes than Marques.

[Pghdukie]

With the 2017 class already prepping for away trip, will a new addition rackle the team chemistry ? An addition of Bagley to roster would be huge, but can he jell with the roster ? I think YES in the long run.Any thoughts ?

[Troublemaker]

With the 2017 class already prepping for away trip, will a new addition rackle the team chemistry ? An addition of Bagley to roster would be huge, but can he jell with the roster ? I think YES in the long run.Any thoughts ?

If Bagley-to-Duke does happen, I would expect it to happen fairly quickly. As in, he would be with the team for the DR trip. Maybe the rest of the guys would have a month head start on him in terms of building chemistry, but that's manageable.

[mr. synellinden]

Speaking of Mr. Bagley:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/c...161358463.html

“I just want to get better,” Bagley said. “You can have the talent, but I want to grow as a person. I want to be around great people and be in an environment that’s helping me to grow. I’m excited about this college thing, man, wherever I go.”

[UrinalCake]

With the 2017 class already prepping for away trip, will a new addition rackle the team chemistry ? An addition of Bagley to roster would be huge, but can he jell with the roster ? I think YES in the long run.Any thoughts ?

I think winning tends to cure a lot of chemistry problems. But nevertheless it's still something to consider. Carter, Bolden, and Bagley are three elite talents in a system that typically plays only one big, then there's Javin and to a lesser extent Vrank to contend for minutes inside.

An interesting question to ponder: if Bagley coming this season means that Javin transfers immediately, is that a worthwhile tradeoff? Losing Javin for the next three seasons? What if it means Bolden transfers?

[DukieTiger]

I think winning tends to cure a lot of chemistry problems. But nevertheless it's still something to consider. Carter, Bolden, and Bagley are three elite talents in a system that typically plays only one big, then there's Javin and to a lesser extent Vrank to contend for minutes inside.

An interesting question to ponder: if Bagley coming this season means that Javin transfers immediately, is that a worthwhile tradeoff? Losing Javin for the next three seasons? What if it means Bolden transfers?

I will grant you Duke's history of only playing 1 big, but I'll also argue Duke only has 3 guaranteed rotational guards this year. They almost have to play more big men, though I share the same concern about Javin. If all this plays out, I guess I wonder if they might try to steal some minutes with Bagley, Carter or Javin. I know none is really a 3 at all, but they'll need some size on the wing all the same.

[ChillinDuke]

I really don't know what to think of this situation.

On the one hand you have a transformative talent that could have a major impact on next season.

On the other hand you have a young team that is already on campus, trying to learn about each other, and develop some chemistry.

When and where do we draw the line on this stuff? If Bagley were in the fold, say, 3 months ago and a transfer was announced and the team was fully on campus now, I think I'd be leaning toward approval. But at this stage in the game, it's not like the season starts tmrw, but the wheels have also begun turning.

In the spectrum of "Bagley Approval", 0-100% approval, as a microcosm of the OAD vs Team Development tug-of-war we've been struggling with as a community this offseason, I think I find myself at a 45%. Meaning I'm still very close to on the fence but would rather pass on Bagley if I were calling the shots.

Blasphemy to some, perhaps. But you have to draw the line somewhere, IMO. We're darn close to that line.

- Chillin

[rsvman]

Well, if his father is to be trusted, apparently you don't have to worry about it.

[JasonEvans]

Well, if his father is to be trusted, apparently you don't have to worry about it.

Is there something new from his dad? Last I heard, the senior Bradley was giving one of those non-denial denial kind of things that could easily be parsed any way you want.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Marvin Bagley's father is from Durham and the family still has relatives in town including Marvin's grandmother. Big point in Duke's favor when it comes to recruiting!

[FadedTackyShirt]

Well, if his father is to be trusted, apparently you don't have to worry about it.

If Bagley doesn't reclassify, one 2017 Dukie, Chase Jeter, potentially could get squeezed at 'Zona. If you're not earning minutes at one perennial top ten program, not likely you're going to earn minutes at another top ten program.

[Duke95]

Reclassifying is a multi-million dollar decision for Bagley. He'd avoid having to play an extra year for free. By this time next year he'd be signing a $5M+ contract plus adverts.

[Troublemaker]

In the spectrum of "Bagley Approval", 0-100% approval, as a microcosm of the OAD vs Team Development tug-of-war we've been struggling with as a community this offseason, I think I find myself at a 45%. Meaning I'm still very close to on the fence but would rather pass on Bagley if I were calling the shots.

What aspect of Team Development would you have reservations about?

From a basketball chemistry perspective, if he's here by August to prepare for the DR trip, then he's ahead of any freshman in the country who's rehabbing an injury and can't practice with his teammates yet (e.g. Lonnie Walker of Miami, Giles last season). He's also going to be roughly as prepared as any freshman on a team that isn't embarking on a foreign trip this summer; Duke gets to practice up to 10 times to prepare for the DR trip, which will help make up for the time he missed in July.

So, I'm thinking your reservations are more about interpersonal chemistry and current players being caught off-guard by this late addition and maybe not liking it. Hopefully, though, Coach K lives up to his reputation as a great communicator and someone who has spent his life studying leadership. I would expect that he would be communicating with the team that adding Bagley is a possibility and that he would get buy-in from the players before it happens.

I would agree, though, that if Bagley can't go on the DR trip, I'd have reservations. That's going to be a huge team building event for this season.

[moonpie23]

wow. i think this could be tremendous for us.

[Troublemaker]

I think winning tends to cure a lot of chemistry problems. But nevertheless it's still something to consider. Carter, Bolden, and Bagley are three elite talents in a system that typically plays only one big, then there's Javin and to a lesser extent Vrank to contend for minutes inside.

Yeah, but if we have Bagley and Carter on the roster, they will start together at the 4 and 5 in a two-big lineup. It would be foolish for that not to happen, and I think we do have to give Coach K credit for not being a fool. He will play 2 bigs when appropriate, and Bagley-Carter is the definition of appropriate. But you're right that we have to hope that Marques, Javin, and Vrank buy in since their playing time should be negatively affected.

An interesting question to ponder: if Bagley coming this season means that Javin transfers immediately, is that a worthwhile tradeoff? Losing Javin for the next three seasons? What if it means Bolden transfers?

Strictly from a cold, unemotional basketball perspective, those defections would probably be irrelevant. At the level that Duke is recruiting at, those players could be easily replaced. If Javin's not here, we'll up our pursuit of Emmitt Williams or similar. If Marques isn't here, we'll offer Moses Brown or similar a scholarship.

Now, having said that, let's add emotion back into the equation. I definitely would find it off-putting if adding Bagley leads to a transfer. That's why I believe there would be communication with the players and even their parents about this move. I think Coach K realizes he's not playing a video game here where he can just add players to the roster willy nilly and not worry about chemistry.

[Class of '94]

Isn't a little to late for Bagley to graduate from HS in time to attend a college this fall? Unless he's been working on completing requirements behind the scenes, it just seems a little late to try to reclassify and graduate from HS in time for fall classes, especially since it is already mid July; and fall classes at Duke start in about a month from now.

Can Bagley really pulls this off?

[Troublemaker]

Isn't a little to late for Bagley to graduate from HS in time to attend a college this fall? Unless he's been working on completing requirements behind the scenes, it just seems a little late to try to reclassify and graduate from HS in time for fall classes, especially since it is already mid July; and fall classes at Duke start in about a month from now.

Can Bagley really pulls this off?

Bagley is 18 years, 4 months old right now and in September, he's going to be 18.5 years old. If he's in a position to re-classify, it probably means that at some point, he was held back a year (or took a prep school year) so that he would be more physically developed than his peers in competition, a trick that parents of athletes often use. If so, it wouldn't be surprising if he had the credits to graduate from HS.

[BD80]

...

I would agree, though, that if Bagley can't go on the DR trip, I'd have reservations. That's going to be a huge team building event for this season.

What is the cut-off date for Bagley to go to DR?

I thought there was some rule that a player had to be enrolled in the 1st summer session to be able to travel in the 2nd summer session