Miles in the NBA

[CDu]

However, I disagree that it's a given that top 25 big men are shoo-ins for the league. If you look at the HS classes of 2004-2007 - the recruiting cycle before the 2011 draft - 11 college-bound big men either failed to make the league or failed made it through a full season before flaming out (Richard Hendrix, Keith Brumbaugh, Brandon Costner, Korvotney Barber, Derrick Caracter, Duke Crews, Stanley Robinson, Gani Lawal, Gary Johnson, Juan Palacios and Mike Williams). That's not an insubstantial number - it's 28% of the top 25 RSCI college-bound big men. Of course, that number might be slightly different had the draft not been open in 2004-2005, but I'd guess it would still be around 20%. Still a fairly substantial difference from our rate.

Well, Stanley Robinson is borderline. He played SF at UConn and definitely. But Caracter shouldn't be on your list. He played with the Lakers for 1.5 seasons (though he didn't see a game this season before being waived in February) and made over $750,000. And Duke Crews got kicked off Tennessee's team and finished his career at Bowie State, so he shouldn't be there, either. Williams trasnferred, too. And Brumbaugh got kicked out of Oklahoma State before ever playing, then transferred to two different JuCo schools, so his inclusion is suspect. So we'll say about 80-90% (depending upon if you include straight-to-NBA guys that would likely have still made it had they gone to college for a year) of top-25 big men made it to the NBA from that list. That would suggest that you are supposed to get your top-25 bigs to the league (I didn't say it was a given - just that you're supposed to do it).

So we're above average with regard to getting our top-25 guys in. I'd imagine that several other teams are as well. UNC, for example, definitely is (Thompson is their only miss and he was outside the top-40). Same for UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown. Basically, everyone but Alabama, NC State, Auburn, UConn (and only if you count Robinson as a PF), Louisville, Minnesota (Rickert in 2001), Villanova (though Jason Fraser is basically the same story as Zoubek), Wisconsin (Butch), Texas, and Georgia Tech has a perfect resume since 2001.

[BD80]

... If anything, we've probably underproduced with our big men (relative to their high school rankings). We keep getting these top-25 big men and only a couple have had any real impact in the League. And the guys that made the impact left Duke 10 years ago and 13 years ago, so the kids we're recruiting now were barely (if at all) in school when those guys played at Duke.

How many top-25 big men have made any real impact in the league?

The 2012 all-star c/pf were: East - Howard (high school), Bosh (top 25?), Hibbert (top 25?) & Deng? (6' 9")

West - Love, Griffin (top 25?), Marc Gasol (foreign), Nowitski (foreign).

Not much room for ANY college coach to claim success in developing top 25 big men.

Who are the other impact big men? Does calipari get "credit" for "developing" Cousins - a talented headcase that needs COACHING? Monroe took 4 years of college and is still improving going into his 3rd NBA season.

[CDu]

How many top-25 big men have made any real impact in the league?

The 2012 all-star c/pf were: East - Howard (high school), Bosh (top 25?), Hibbert (top 25?) & Deng? (6' 9")

West - Love, Griffin (top 25?), Marc Gasol (foreign), Nowitski (foreign).

Not much room for ANY college coach to claim success in developing top 25 big men.

Who are the other impact big men? Does calipari get "credit" for "developing" Cousins - a talented headcase that needs COACHING? Monroe took 4 years of college and is still improving going into his 3rd NBA season.

Deng is a SF, so knock him off the list. And I'd say you're being awfully restrictive by setting "impact" at "All-Star" level.

There's Love, Bosh, Powe, Humphries, Bass, Villanueva, Aldridge, Hansbrough, Oden, Hawes, Young, Lopez, Arthur, Beasley, Hickson, Griffin, Jordan, Randolph, Patterson, Williams, Wright, Mullens, Monroe, Davis, Favors, and Cousins have all been regular 20+ mpg, 6+ ppg players in the league. And most of those guys have been 9+ ppg guys, with the ones who fall short being primarily younger guys who are still finding their way. Love, Griffin, Bosh, Humphries, Villanueva, Lopez, Beasley, Aldridge, Cousins, Hickson, and Monroe have all been 13+ ppg guys, while Jordan, Favors, Hawes, Mullens are/were all key starters on playoff teams or guys who are beginning to develop into key starters. Oden would have been a 15+ ppg guy had horrible injuries not destroyed his career.

[Kedsy]

How many top-25 big men have made any real impact in the league?

The 2012 all-star c/pf were: East - Howard (high school), Bosh (top 25?), Hibbert (top 25?) & Deng? (6' 9")

West - Love, Griffin (top 25?), Marc Gasol (foreign), Nowitski (foreign).

Not much room for ANY college coach to claim success in developing top 25 big men.

Who are the other impact big men? Does calipari get "credit" for "developing" Cousins - a talented headcase that needs COACHING? Monroe took 4 years of college and is still improving going into his 3rd NBA season.

Howard was #1 in 2004. Bosh was #5 in 2002. Deng was #2 in 2003; Love was #2 and Griffin was #16 in 2007. As far as I can tell, Hibbert wasn't even top 100. Obviously, Gasol and Nowitzki were never high school recruits.

Also, other than Hibbert, none of the players you name above played more than two college seasons, and only Griffin played as many as two. The others all played one or zero. Can you really "develop" a player over one season? Maybe, maybe not. If not, then the only coaches who can claim development of 2012 All Stars are JT III (Georgetown) and Jeff Capel (Duke assistant). If you can develop a guy in one year, then add Coach K (Duke), Paul Hewitt (George Mason), and Ben Howland (UCLA). Interesting that one team's coaching staff comes up twice on that list.

On the other hand, recruits just don't think that way.

[Greg_Newton]

Well, Stanley Robinson is borderline. He played SF at UConn and definitely. But Caracter shouldn't be on your list. He played with the Lakers for 1.5 seasons (though he didn't see a game this season before being waived in February) and made over $750,000. And Duke Crews got kicked off Tennessee's team and finished his career at Bowie State, so he shouldn't be there, either. Williams trasnferred, too. And Brumbaugh got kicked out of Oklahoma State before ever playing, then transferred to two different JuCo schools, so his inclusion is suspect.

I'm not sure why transfers or meltdowns shouldn't count as Top 25 big men not making the league; I suppose you'd have to throw them out to do an apples-to-apples comparison of Duke's non-transfer success rate, but I don't believe Duke has had any top 25 bigs transfer during that time period anyway (Boateng, Boykin and Thompson were all lower ranked). So if we're modifying the original premise to include only top 25 bigs making the league, there's no need to throw out transfers. They're still top 25 big men who went to college elsewhere than Duke and never made the league.

Fair point about Robinson; I was just going by RSCI positional listings. Not sure I agree about Caracter, though; he was demoted to the NBDL before his rookie season ended, and never saw a minute of action afterward. I guess he was a towel boy for the first month of the following season before being demoted and waived (wikipedia and ESPN didn't mention that), but I mean... the guy has less NBA experience than Lance Thomas already has.

So we're above average with regard to getting our top-25 guys in. ...Basically, everyone but Alabama, NC State, Auburn, UConn (and only if you count Robinson as a PF), Louisville, Minnesota (Rickert in 2001), Villanova (though Jason Fraser is basically the same story as Zoubek), Wisconsin (Butch), Texas, and Georgia Tech has a perfect resume since 2001.

Of course, going 4-4 - potentially 6-6 if Miles does, in fact, get his shot and we count Kyle when he repatriates (Which we really should; the guy was recruited as a PF and played exclusively PF/C until he was an upperclassmen. If that's not skill "development", I don't know what is.) - and possibly even 8-8 in a couple of years if Miles and Ryan both find a spot - is a monumentally better resume than a school who's just 1-1 or 2-2, like the vast majority of other schools.

But in any case, I'd certainly settle for "above average" and equivalent to schools like UNC and UK when it comes to the perception of how well we get our big men to the league. Lord knows that's not how recruits see us now, thus my whole point. I'm not trying to convince you that we've been some hotshot post player factory over the past decade or something like that.

[CDu]

I'm not sure why transfers or meltdowns shouldn't count as Top 25 big men not making the league; I suppose you'd have to throw them out to do an apples-to-apples comparison of Duke's non-transfer success rate, but I don't believe Duke has had any top 25 bigs transfer during that time period anyway (Boateng, Boykin and Thompson were all lower ranked). So if we're modifying the original premise to include only top 25 bigs making the league, there's no need to throw out transfers. They're still top 25 big men who went to college elsewhere than Duke and never made the league.

I was using your original premise of non-transfers. If you want to bring transfers back and only include top-25, that's fair. Add a a JuCo school and Tennessee to the list.

Of course, going 4-4 - potentially 6-6 if Miles does, in fact, get his shot and we count Kyle when he repatriates (Which we really should; the guy was recruited as a PF and played exclusively PF/C until he was an upperclassmen. If that's not skill "development", I don't know what is.) - and possibly even 8-8 in a couple of years if Miles and Ryan both find a spot - is a monumentally better resume than a school who's just 1-1 or 2-2, like the vast majority of other schools.

Singler has no business being on the list. He was recruited as a WF (per RSCI), played half of his time as a SF, and will be a SF in the League. Nobody is looking at him as evidence that Duke does well with their big men. Including him in your list is "getting cute".

I'll be surprised if Kelly finds a spot. And I think it's misleading to drop Zoubek. I don't think he'd have stuck in the NBA. He got a tryout with the Nets and didn't make it. I think it's more fair to say 4-5 and potentially 6-7 (more likely 5-7). Remember: Miles doesn't count if you're only looking at top-25 guys. If you want to include him, then we probably have to include Boykin, Boateng, Thompson, and Czyz as misses (if you're dropping the transfer restriction).

But in any case, I'd certainly settle for "above average" and equivalent to schools like UNC and UK when it comes to the perception of how well we get our big men to the league. Lord knows that's not how recruits see us now, thus my whole point. I'm not trying to convince you that we've been some hotshot post player factory over the past decade or something like that.

No disagreement there. We haven't been as successful as UCLA, Kentucky, Georgetown, Kansas, or Ohio State in terms of producing impact-quality bigs. But we've had similar success at least getting guys into the league, which is nice. I don't think it registers with recruits, but that's for the coaches to handle, not us.

[jimrowe0]

Not to knock Miles, but I think he should play in the NFL. I always thought that he would be a great tight end. He has plenty of athleticism and enough talent to play in the NBA, but I would love to see him in the NFL.

[nmduke2001]

Not to knock Miles, but I think he should play in the NFL. I always thought that he would be a great tight end. He has plenty of athleticism and enough talent to play in the NBA, but I would love to see him in the NFL.

I started a thread about this very topic a few months ago and was roundly criticized. However, I am with you; Miles could be an incredible tight end. Just think of a 6’-10" tight end with a 41” vertical. He would be unstoppable in the red zone. Just lob the ball 11 feet in the air and the defenders would be unable to stop it.

[Indoor66]

I started a thread about this very topic a few months ago and was roundly criticized. However, I am with you; Miles could be an incredible tight end. Just think of a 6’-10" tight end with a 41” vertical. He would be unstoppable in the red zone. Just lob the ball 11 feet in the air and the defenders would be unable to stop it.

Of course, the second time they did this a defensive back would break him in half.

[UrinalCake]

Quote from this link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ara/index.html

...the 6-11, 225-pounder not only played well but wowed those on hand with his hops, registering leading vertical leaps in the "with steps" category (41 inches) and "without steps" (34 inches) that were the best of the 14 prospects on Thursday

I think this is an important distinction that has slipped through the cracks of this thread. The numbers I posted earlier and that others have mentioned regarding vertical leaps of other NBA players were all STANDING (without steps) numbers. The 41" that Miles put up was a running leap. So his 34" is really the number we should be comparing. Still extremely impressive, but not six inches higher than Dwight Howard.

[zoroaster]

I agree that Miles's numbers seem almost too good to be true, but fwiw, I do believe the numbers for the other players were (mostly, at least) vertical leaps with steps, too. Dwight Howard's really is just 35.5" for max vertical, according to Draft Express (his no-step vertical is 30.5"). I don't know how to explain the discrepancy (although several posters' explanations have made sense to me)..

[tommy]

I was using your original premise of non-transfers. If you want to bring transfers back and only include top-25, that's fair. Add a a JuCo school and Tennessee to the list.



Singler has no business being on the list. He was recruited as a WF (per RSCI), played half of his time as a SF, and will be a SF in the League. Nobody is looking at him as evidence that Duke does well with their big men. Including him in your list is "getting cute".

I'll be surprised if Kelly finds a spot. And I think it's misleading to drop Zoubek. I don't think he'd have stuck in the NBA. He got a tryout with the Nets and didn't make it. I think it's more fair to say 4-5 and potentially 6-7 (more likely 5-7). Remember: Miles doesn't count if you're only looking at top-25 guys. If you want to include him, then we probably have to include Boykin, Boateng, Thompson, and Czyz as misses (if you're dropping the transfer restriction).



No disagreement there. We haven't been as successful as UCLA, Kentucky, Georgetown, Kansas, or Ohio State in terms of producing impact-quality bigs. But we've had similar success at least getting guys into the league, which is nice. I don't think it registers with recruits, but that's for the coaches to handle, not us.

I know we've covered this in other threads, but granting Georgetown, who would you say have been the "impact-quality bigs" produced by the other schools you've named, in the last 20 years? I don't think the list(s) will be long.

[CDu]

I know we've covered this in other threads, but granting Georgetown, who would you say have been the "impact-quality bigs" produced by the other schools you've named, in the last 20 years? I don't think the list(s) will be long.

Well, the discussion was in the last decade, not the last 20 years. As for those other schools:
UCLA: Love
UNC: Hansbrough and Davis, with perhaps Zeller and Henson adding to the list
Ohio State: Mullens and Oden (when healthy, he was good), with Sullinger adding to the list
Kentucky: Cousins and Patterson, with Davis adding to the list
Kansas: Morris averaged 7.7ppg as a rookie, and Thomas Robinson possibly will add to the list

For reference, when I say "impact", I'm talking about guys who are regularly starters or 20+ mpg guys. In terms of 15+ ppg "stars", all but UCLA and Kentucky become questionable. But even at the lower threshold of impact, our guys have fallen short over the last decade.

[Marty10]

From Chad Ford's ESPN Insider blog today:

Duke's Miles Plumlee didn't wow anyone in four years at Duke, but he's generating significant buzz thanks to some great individual workouts and a strong performance in the Minnesota group workout last weekend.

[CDu]

From Chad Ford's blog today

As a Bulls fan, I'm very interested in Miles. The Bulls, for luxury tax reasons, may lose 4-5 of their key role players (including backup C Omer Asik). As such, they may be in the market for a defensive-minded big man who can rebound, run, and doesn't mind being a role player. Miles would fit VERY nicely with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson. I'd love to see the Bulls take him late in the 2nd round (they'd have to acquire such a pick, but that's pretty easy these days) and have him replace Asik for a savings of $10-15 million per year (when you consider the luxury tax, which doubles a player's cost). The Bulls have a track record of acquiring former Duke guys (and with pretty good results for the most part). Hopefully that continues.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

As a Bulls fan, I'm very interested in Miles. The Bulls, for luxury tax reasons, may lose 4-5 of their key role players (including backup C Omer Asik). As such, they may be in the market for a defensive-minded big man who can rebound, run, and doesn't mind being a role player. Miles would fit VERY nicely with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson. I'd love to see the Bulls take him late in the 2nd round (they'd have to acquire such a pick, but that's pretty easy these days) and have him replace Asik for a savings of $10-15 million per year (when you consider the luxury tax, which doubles a player's cost). The Bulls have a track record of acquiring former Duke guys (and with pretty good results for the most part). Hopefully that continues.

...although dumping Elton Brand was one of their dumbest moves ever... Tyson Chandler... please...

[UrinalCake]

From Chad Ford's blog today

I am equal parts excited about Miles' NBA prospects and concerned about the ongoing "big man perception" issue. I know I sort of joked about it earlier in this thread, but as Miles's stock continues to rise, the natural question for high school prospects is going to be, "Why didn't Duke use him more?" When you've got NBA insiders such as Chad Ford casually writing it off as "Duke is a guard-oriented school who rarely called plays for him," that really doesn't look good.

[jv001]

I am equal parts excited about Miles' NBA prospects and concerned about the ongoing "big man perception" issue. I know I sort of joked about it earlier in this thread, but as Miles's stock continues to rise, the natural question for high school prospects is going to be, "Why didn't Duke use him more?" When you've got NBA insiders such as Chad Ford casually writing it off as "Duke is a guard-oriented school who rarely called plays for him," that really doesn't look good.

I was thinking the same thing when I read the post. If Miles get's selected, makes an NBA roster and excels there will be the question of why didn't he do that at Duke. Then of course the question will come up again as why Duke cannot produce "big men" for the NBA. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

I am equal parts excited about Miles' NBA prospects and concerned about the ongoing "big man perception" issue. I know I sort of joked about it earlier in this thread, but as Miles's stock continues to rise, the natural question for high school prospects is going to be, "Why didn't Duke use him more?" When you've got NBA insiders such as Chad Ford casually writing it off as "Duke is a guard-oriented school who rarely called plays for him," that really doesn't look good.

A rich NBA career is a rich NBA career, whether or not you averaged 15 and ten in college, and success by Miles will help Duke with recruiting. There are plenty of examples of players who blossomed in the NBA after not starring in college. I'll have to think of examples beyond Matt Geiger, Jack Sikma, birdman in Denver.

sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

I was thinking the same thing when I read the post. If Miles get's selected, makes an NBA roster and excels there will be the question of why didn't he do that at Duke. Then of course the question will come up again as why Duke cannot produce "big men" for the NBA. GoDuke!

The anti-Duke lobby will always use whatever result to suit their argument, but it will be tough to argue, if Miles becomes an NBA player, that he did it in spite of Duke. Unless, of course, he becomes some kind of offensive powerhouse. If he becomes Jeff Foster, an energy guy that gobbles rebounds, bangs, defends and gets some garbage baskets and hits some face up jumpers, they'll say that is exactly what he was at Duke but the more free flowing NBA game and its 6 fouls allowed his talents to flourish.