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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Another Duke prediction added to the Looney page a little after 5 PM. This one is from someone at "Roundball Rundown Report" who has an 80% accuracy ranking so far.

    Also, someone named Kinsky posted predictions of Okafor and Jones to Kansas, Winslow to Duke this afternoon. (His accuracy rating is around 60%.)

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Maryland
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

    6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
    10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
    10:57am today: 54%
    11:14am today: 34%

    Now (5:44pm): 16%

    Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

    - Chillin

    ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)
    There's big money in being wrong, apparently.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Coming up on 24 hours out, and we are still sitting (relatively) quietly at 100% for Kevon.

    Three new predictions came out yesterday (all for Duke obviously). Nothing yet this morning. Certainly seems quiet to me, especially when compared to the Okonoboh decision. Granted, a lot of the movement for that one came in the final 24 hours.

    Anxious to see how today/tmrw morning unfolds.

    - Chillin

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.
    Definitely a little odd.

    It's entirely possible that the 24/7 CB isn't a very good tool (yet) (or ever) at predicting these commitments.

    But that's kinda the point of this thread, I guess. To see how well this thing does.

    - Chillin

  6. #46
    Is Looney considered a one and done player? I had read somewhere that that is his ultimate plan, but it doesn't seem sure fire to me (RSCI #13, basically same as Sulaimon). If Looney chooses Duke and stays 2-3 years, he could end up having a bigger impact than Okafor does in a single year. Just something to think about...Although I want both of course!

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Sullivans Island, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    who has an 80% accuracy ranking so far.

    ...His accuracy rating is around 60%.
    Can the 'experts' change their prediction right up until the announcement? Or is there a cutoff time?

    I seem to remember a run on a previous recruit's predictions with a number of experts changing what they think at the last minute (or last day or whatever). But that would kind of water down the value of any accuracy ranking right?

  8. #48
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt View Post
    Can the 'experts' change their prediction right up until the announcement? Or is there a cutoff time?

    I seem to remember a run on a previous recruit's predictions with a number of experts changing what they think at the last minute (or last day or whatever). But that would kind of water down the value of any accuracy ranking right?
    They can change their prediction at any time. Yes, there was a run on the Okonoboh announcement which had IU as the strong leader within 24 hours of his announcement, only to see him choose UNLV.

    We are still evaluating the usefulness / accuracy of this new Crystal Ball concept on 24/7 Sports. At least I am, and that's why I'm posting in this thread. Being a new tool on the 24/7 site, DBR comrade (and 24/7 analyst using the CB tool) Airowe has posted upthread that 24/7 is still gathering all the data associated with the analysts using the CB. This includes final prediction, initial prediction, prediction changes, timing, # of analysts with a prediction, accuracy per analyst, etc. The list goes on and on.

    The point is not that this tool is correct from the getgo, and we must rely on it and like it. Rather, how good is the tool now at predicting where recruits will go (wasn't very good for Okonoboh, that's for sure - but that was our first attempt at evaluating it)? And how good could it be if they tweak it once the site gets enough critical mass of data?

    For now, I'm (and hopefully we're) just having fun seeing how this thing does.

    - Chillin

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Rather, how good is the tool now at predicting where recruits will go (wasn't very good for Okonoboh, that's for sure - but that was our first attempt at evaluating it)? And how good could it be if they tweak it once the site gets enough critical mass of data?

    For now, I'm (and hopefully we're) just having fun seeing how this thing does.

    - Chillin
    One issue is predictions are just guesses if there isn't any right answer. In other words, if the kid hasn't made up his mind yet, then all the predictions are just uninformed guesses. Even in cases where the guesses are informed, if the kid changes his mind then they're kind of worthless. Presumably that's what happened with Goodluck. Either he hadn't made up his mind and people assumed Indiana, or he'd let out Indiana signals but changed his mind.

    They can gather all the data they want, but it won't change the nature of the beast.

  10. #50

    smh

    Its amazing how earlier in the year when I posted a comment about 247 in the recruiting thread about the crystal ball and I got this afterwards:

    This is not an infraction but rather a warning, but please take it serious. 247Sports is a pay/premium site, and the information you shared in the post is only for their paying customers. DBR does not allow posts with premium information to stand as it is not fair to the owners of the pay site or their customers. Please do not share any more information here from any of the pay sites.

    and now there is a whole thread for it. Isn't the info for crystal ball free? shaking my head, but no bitter feelings.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Thanks a lot, DBR. You broke 247:

    247broke.jpg

  12. #52
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    One issue is predictions are just guesses if there isn't any right answer. In other words, if the kid hasn't made up his mind yet, then all the predictions are just uninformed guesses. Even in cases where the guesses are informed, if the kid changes his mind then they're kind of worthless. Presumably that's what happened with Goodluck. Either he hadn't made up his mind and people assumed Indiana, or he'd let out Indiana signals but changed his mind.

    They can gather all the data they want, but it won't change the nature of the beast.
    You're right. But as a DBR community, there are many of us here that enjoy following recruiting. Many of us don't, but many do. And when those of us that enjoy recruiting have mainly the parsing of tweets / evaluating facial expressions / reading interviews / evaluating clothing / etc...well I'll give this imperfect, quantitative tool a shot at better taming that beast.

    - Chillin

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.
    One thing that would help give these predictions more clarity would be if the recruiting gurus had to put a confidence number on their picks, say on a scale of 1 to 10. So if Tyus Jones chooses Duke, those gurus that had picked Jones to Duke with a 10 confidence rating gets more credit than someone who had Jones to Duke with a 7.

    If there was something like that in place, I believe it would show the gurus are more confident in Okafor/Jones to Duke than they are Looney to Duke. Whether they ultimately are correct with either prediction is another matter.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    You're right. But as a DBR community, there are many of us here that enjoy following recruiting. Many of us don't, but many do. And when those of us that enjoy recruiting have mainly the parsing of tweets / evaluating facial expressions / reading interviews / evaluating clothing / etc...well I'll give this imperfect, quantitative tool a shot at better taming that beast.

    - Chillin
    Perhaps. My problem is people seem to be looking at this (really all the things you mention) as something that can give them "the answer." But the fact is there is no answer until the kid makes his announcement (and even then it's not irrevocable).

  15. #55
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Perhaps. My problem is people seem to be looking at this (really all the things you mention) as something that can give them "the answer." But the fact is there is no answer until the kid makes his announcement (and even then it's not irrevocable).
    I can't comment on all people. For me, I look at it similar to you in that the CB is not an answer. Instead, I'm hoping it proves (at some point) to be a more efficient way for me (and hopefully others) to follow recruiting. In its current state, recruiting has become increasingly tiresome for me, mainly due to the prevalence of Twitter and social media which allow for so much added noise.

    ETA: When something in your house breaks and you still enjoy it, you look for the right tool to fix it. For me, here's to hoping this is it.

    ETA: Others who don't enjoy it anymore, just throw it out.

    - Chillin
    Last edited by ChillinDuke; 10-30-2013 at 12:56 PM. Reason: ETAs

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Every time I try to access the 24/7 site, Skype launches instead and I see the goofy face of Huck Hound and the Eddie Haskell-esque smarm of the Black Pidgeon's voice saying, "Coach Roy Williams?"....and then I wake up, trembling in a cold sweat.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Almost 20 hours out now, and this is turning into a snoozer. Barely any activity.

    Looney is still listed as 100% Duke across 31 total analysts with only 4 new picks being made in the past two days and only 1 of those being today.

    As far as the CB goes, I'm liking our chances. At least until I see activity that suggests otherwise.

    - Chillin

  18. #58
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Almost 20 hours out now, and this is turning into a snoozer. Barely any activity.

    Looney is still listed as 100% Duke across 31 total analysts with only 4 new picks being made in the past two days and only 1 of those being today.

    As far as the CB goes, I'm liking our chances. At least until I see activity that suggests otherwise.

    - Chillin
    Alec Kinsky weighed in: Duke. 32 analysts.

    This appears to be the guy Tommy gave some background on in this thread (post 1601, top of page): http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...-thread/page81

    Snoozer.

    - Chillin

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Alec Kinsky weighed in: Duke. 32 analysts.

    This appears to be the guy Tommy gave some background on in this thread (post 1601, top of page): http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...-thread/page81

    Snoozer.

    - Chillin
    Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

    He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.

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