Originally Posted by
bob blue devil
i agree that duke is unquestionably a top 10 team and arguably a top 5 team - we've got as good a chance as anyone to make a run (with the exception of kentucky who looks a bit better than the field; and some would argue syracuse). we all should be happy with what this team has accomplished and where it stands.
however, i think a lot of the angst is that this team could just as easily pull an oh-fer for the rest of the season as do something special. oh-fer being no more wins vs. unc, no acc regular season "champ", no acc championship, no final four. these are the things we (at least i) care about. is it an unfairly high bar? absolutely. has it been met more often than not over the past decade +? you betcha. thankfully, to-date, the team has won every thing i care about and we've put ourselves in a good position - won maui, beat unc, co-leader of acc, arguably leader for an ncaa #1 seed (i'd love to have added some weeks at #1 in the polls, but that's getting super greedy).
so what drives that angst/why does it feel like we might not add any more notches to our belt? well, look at how we've done against at-large tourney caliber teams (particularly recent results, as teams have polished themselves and are closer to postseason form than preseason form):
11/15 - handled michigan state (they closed at end, but we controlled h2)
11/22 - handled michigan
11/23 - eeked kansas (behind with ~1.30 left)
11/29 - embarassed by ohio state
12/10 - handled washington (they closed at end, but we controlled)
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1/4 - handled by temple
1/12 - won a tight one vs. uva
1/21 - lost at buzzer to fsu
2/5 - lost in OT to miami
2/8 - beat unc at buzzer
2/16 - miraculous comeback vs. state
it's basically a coin flip for the past 6. are we favorite to beat unc at cameron? no. are we the leader to "win" acc regular season? no (we've got the toughest remaining schedule). are we better than 50/50 to even advance to the acc title game? that's close and obviously depends on the draw, but involves 2 wins agains tourney caliber teams, so maybe not. are we better than 50/50 to advance beyond the sweet 16? again, maybe not (we'd need 2 wins over temple/uva/fsu/miami/state caliber or better teams).
i think this team is still improving - it's apparent in a lot of ways. that will be what really drives this team's ultimate outcomes and is very satisfying to watch. but when i think about adding notches to our belt, it will definitely require a meaningful step up (and/or some luck - i'm not proud i'll, take luck too).