Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013

[jimsumner]

i, like a number others here, am a bit concerned about a curry/cook perimeter from a defensive perspective (although I'll leave the hyperbole to others). the happy outcome is that we see big improvements from cook, but i think it would be relatively rare for a player to go from where cook was last year to where he needs to be. many folks are pointing to recovery from injury as a key reason to expect an improvement - i don't have a ton of confidence in that line of thinking. is it confirmed he still hadn't fully recovered by the second half of the season and that he was hindered enough to make what we saw not representative of quinn's actual capabilities?

i'm not terribly concerned on offense - i expect big things from what is easily one of the best front courts in the country (and the trickle down benefits for our other shooters). defense is the key.

because of my curry/cook defensive concerns, i am intrigued by the possibility of a sulaimon/curry back court as a way to address a weakness. unfortunately, that would put a lot of pressure on rasheed and there is a good chance he doesn't have the ball handling/distribution skill set to shoulder that load (too bad we don't have the greatest coach ever to evaluate these things). or maybe curry could channel his inner scheyer and... ah nevermind, already tried that.

I do not believe Cook ever really trusted his knee last season. He seemed hesitant and tentative.

I'm not a big fan of over-hyping summer-league play. But by all appearances, Cook did trust his knee this past summer.

[Billy Dat]

BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

I loved last year when the offense ran through Ryan and Mason. What schemes do we think the coaches will devise to maximize their role in the offense? I like when they play a two man game between the wing and block as I think Ryan can effectively feed the post and Mason operates nicely off the block. If Cook can effectively use high screens, he and Mason could run the kind of two man game that Chris Paul ran/runs so well with Chandler/Griffin (why not set the bar high?) Mason is athletic enough to finish lobs anywhere within 3 feet of the rim. I will be very disappointed if we don't run a lot of offense through the big seniors.

[licc85]

Hopefully, noobody minds, but I wanted to rehash a post of mine from the Parker thread in here, because, well, it makes more sense. And, it deals with a recurring theme around here re: perimeter defense...

Popular opinion among many seems to be that, while Alex Murphy is going to provide us much needed help defensively at the three slot against opposing athletic wings, we are once going to get eaten alive by athletic penetrators ala C.J. McCollum on the perimeter. With the departure of Austin Rivers' dynamic offensive game, however, comes the dynamic defensive game of Rasheed Sulaimon. He stands at 6'4 and has elite quickness and the versatility to hold his own against any position in the backcourt defensively. He is just the type of player we lacked a season ago. It will just be a matter of finding a lineup that will allow for Rasheed to earn considerable time on the floor, as it would appear that he will be chiefly competing with Curry for burn, at least in terms of how the early lineup appears on paper.

I am confident that Coach K will devise a lineup that work to utilize our biggest assets as well as possible, and the arrival of Rasheed not only as a potent scorer on the wing, but more importantly as our best defensive guard since Nolan, is one of them. He will need to be on the court. Period. Quinn, Seth and Tyler, who is certainly no slouch defensively and probably our most tenacious on-ball defender a year ago, are too small and not versatile enough to stop elite guards from making their way to the basket. In an effort to combat this, any chance that Rasheed plays signicant time at the point? I heard rumblings of this in the spring, but not much since. He's a solid ball handler, crafty passer and excellent at creating his shot on the perimeter. Could it work?

I think most would agree that the long term plan for Quinn Cook is for him to assume the starting point guard role, but right now, having him play heavy minutes with Seth at the 2 is just too risky. The ACC is brimming with big, strong, athletic guards this year. Just off the top of my head: Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, Durand Scott, Michael Snaer, Reggie Bullock, Leslie McDonald, PJ Hairston, these guys are all 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 and many of them weigh in at over 210 pounds. Seth Curry is 6-1 180, and Quinn Cook is 6-0 175 . . . it doesn't matter how much better these guys get with their positioning and quickness. Guys like Scott and Purvis will just bull their way into the paint and get our big guys into foul trouble.

Quinn is our best point guard, that is not disputable, but he is a defensive liability due to his size, no matter how much he has improved on D. He will be our starting point guard, but I think next year will be his year, after Seth graduates. Then Rasheed can slide over to the starting 2 guard spot and shore up the perimeter with his long arms and athleticism.

[Troublemaker]

I think we'll win the ACC, the ACC regular season, and be a top-5 team and strong contender for the FF and NC. I think we'll beat Kentucky to open the season.

Cook will be the key. Reading the very smart people on this board has convinced me that Cook is going to step up big this season. I'm buying in with you guys in thinking that a healthy Cook will be a very good college point guard. I have full confidence in the frontcourt of Murphy, Kelly, and MP2. And I believe Amile will be the first big off the bench and a quality backup. This is our strongest frontcourt in years.

The question is at the 2-spot. I think Curry will be given every chance to win that role and become one of the league's best scorers. But in the end, he will be surpassed in the rotation by Thornton's combination of defense, intangibles, and shooting (the latter of which, while not at Seth's level, will be good enough so that his other advantages carry the day). Sheed will play about 10 min a game. It'll be a learning year for him. I've basically done a complete 180 from what I thought the backcourt would be earlier in the summer. I believe in Cook and Thornton as the predominant backcourt by the end of the season, and as the backcourt that finishes games, and as the backcourt that combines with a great frontcourt to be a top-5 team.

[lotusland]

I loved last year when the offense ran through Ryan and Mason. What schemes do we think the coaches will devise to maximize their role in the offense? I like when they play a two man game between the wing and block as I think Ryan can effectively feed the post and Mason operates nicely off the block. If Cook can effectively use high screens, he and Mason could run the kind of two man game that Chris Paul ran/runs so well with Chandler/Griffin (why not set the bar high?) Mason is athletic enough to finish lobs anywhere within 3 feet of the rim. I will be very disappointed if we don't run a lot of offense through the big seniors.

Well said. It doesn't matter where the shots come from but the ball needs to go inside early and often. For his part Mason needs to be more decisive with the ball. Make a move, take the shot or find a cutter or spot up shooter. I think with repetition he will become more instinctive. That way we get good shots for Alex, Sheed TT, and Quinn who aren't pure shooters like Seth. Ryan definitely doesn't need to stay within 7 ft of the basket. If he can hit some shots he should be able to also get in the lane by using a shot fake. He'll need to take a little better care of the ball when the help comes. He has been prone to take one too many dribbles and get his pocket picked. I expect that one or two of the under-class-men will make an impact but we don't need any of them to carry us. I think all three seniors will be all ACC and lead us to another ACC Championship.

[ohiodukefan]

I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

[Cameron]

I think most would agree that the long term plan for Quinn Cook is for him to assume the starting point guard role, but right now, having him play heavy minutes with Seth at the 2 is just too risky. The ACC is brimming with big, strong, athletic guards this year. Just off the top of my head: Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, Durand Scott, Michael Snaer, Reggie Bullock, Leslie McDonald, PJ Hairston, these guys are all 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 and many of them weigh in at over 210 pounds. Seth Curry is 6-1 180, and Quinn Cook is 6-0 175 . . . it doesn't matter how much better these guys get with their positioning and quickness. Guys like Scott and Purvis will just bull their way into the paint and get our big guys into foul trouble.

Quinn is our best point guard, that is not disputable, but he is a defensive liability due to his size, no matter how much he has improved on D. He will be our starting point guard, but I think next year will be his year, after Seth graduates. Then Rasheed can slide over to the starting 2 guard spot and shore up the perimeter with his long arms and athleticism.

Concur on pretty much all counts. I might argue that we do not categorically know if Quinn is our best fit at point guard for this season, as Rasheed hasn't yet been given the opportunity to try and fill that role (and who knows if he ever will; that will, I imagine, primarily depend on how well Quinn performs and if he is completely injury-free heading into regular-season play). There is, however, no doubt about it that Quinn is the best traditional point guard that we have on the team. Tyler is great in spot duty and is a shot of Red Bull off the bench, but he's probably not the kind of lead guard that will lead us to an NCAA championship. And, as we saw with last year's expirement, Seth is not meant to run the point. He is a pure two guard. Plain and simple.

I truly hope that Rasheed is physically -- and mentally, for that matter -- ready to contribute a significant portion of minutes from the get-go, because, and this is the bottom line, we will absolutely need his length, speed and athleticism on the perimeter as a defensive stopper. Seth Curry may provide a nifty presence on defense occasionally thanks to his quick hands and heady court demeanor, but his undersized stature and underwhelming past performance on that end of the floor indicate that he will need to carry a shotgun in order to effectively stop dribble penetration. I haven't glossed over the handbook in awhile, but I assume gunfights are still illegal.

As others have hypothesized, I also think it is more likely that Rasheed earns his minutes as a combo backup for both Seth at the two and Alex at the three, than it is for him to assume a share of point guard duties. But I can't help but wonder if it could work. (With that said, I hope Quinn blows my mind and proves he's our next great point guard.)

[gumbomoop]

I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

I think I disagree with your fear here, but it depends on what you mean by "major." If major means, say, 20-25 mpg, that just seems very unlikely to me, for it would mean that [1] Murphy isn't ready, and [2] Jefferson is utterly incapable of providing any minutes at the 3.

On [2], I grant the point that anyone would care to make that Jefferson isn't really a 3, even if he sort of looks like one. I agree that he isn't a 3, but is basically a 4. But I've seen his defense, and he seems capable of providing solid D against opposing players in the 6'5"-6'8" SF range for a few mpg. True, Jefferson is only a frosh, but then so is Sulaimon. IMO, while neither is likely to provide the proverbial lock-down-D, we'll be pleased enough with both these young guys on D.

But my real disagreement concerns point [1], for your fear surely implies that Murphy can't play major minutes at the 3. My recollection is that last preseason, prior to his injury, he was said by the staff to be likely to play, possibly, possibly, even start. I expect Murphy to start at SF and play 20-25 mpg, at that position. Although I assume K will, yes, play some 3-guard this season, I'd guess more like 10-15 mpg, which isn't major minutes. And actually, in some - ok, fair enough, limited - circumstances, I'd think a 3-guard lineup makes sense.

[jimsumner]

I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

Duke will almost certainly play small lineups, with Sulaimon at the 3, in end-of-half and end-of-game situations. As do most teams with multiple quality-guards.

But the Duke coaches expect Murphy to be able to handle the bulk of the minutes at the 3 and do so with reasonable effectiveness. I would expect 25 mpg as a minimum.

BTW, as the board spell-checker emeritus, let me note the correct spelling of Sulaimon and Thornton. They're our guys and we should try to get this right on a Duke board.

[Edouble]

BTW, as the board spell-checker emeritus, let me note the correct spelling of Sulaimon and Thornton. They're our guys and we should try to get this right on a Duke board.

Well said, sir.

To me, there seems to be a white elephant in the posting room. The elephant is the playing status of Seth Curry. It seems like most posters would like to see Quinn as out starting point guard, I, for one, have been on the Quinn bandwagon since last December when there was a pretty vocal group of folks on this board that wanted Quinn to start and play more minutes at the point.

Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I know that Coach K doesn't promise anybody anything when he recruits them, and you're not guaranteed to continue in a starting role, just because you have had one in the past. Without knowing much more than a few highlight reels about Sulaimon, I can still say that his size and defensive reputation intrigues me. This will be Seth's fourth year in the program. While it may be a bit embarrassing to "lose" his spot to a freshman, I wonder if the team wouldn't be better served with Seth coming off of the bench as a 3-point sparkplug (as Paulus towards the end of his senior year).

I would personally like see Sulaimon get a lot of PT early and be ready as a taller, defensive-minded, 3-point shooting guard for when March rolls around. Obviously, he would have to really show it in practice for this to happen.

I wonder if Seth hasn't just run into a situation where he is not the best fit for this particular team, late in his career. With Quinn as the point guard, we really need a little more size on the perimeter. Alex definitely ups the overall team size, but I'm not sure if that's enough to absorb two 6-footers in the backcourt (that are not Duhon and Williams).

[Kedsy]

The question is at the 2-spot. I think Curry will be given every chance to win that role and become one of the league's best scorers. But in the end, he will be surpassed in the rotation by Thornton's combination of defense, intangibles, and shooting (the latter of which, while not at Seth's level, will be good enough so that his other advantages carry the day). Sheed will play about 10 min a game. It'll be a learning year for him. I've basically done a complete 180 from what I thought the backcourt would be earlier in the summer. I believe in Cook and Thornton as the predominant backcourt by the end of the season, and as the backcourt that finishes games, and as the backcourt that combines with a great frontcourt to be a top-5 team.

This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.

To me, there seems to be a white elephant in the posting room. The elephant is the playing status of Seth Curry. It seems like most posters would like to see Quinn as out starting point guard, I, for one, have been on the Quinn bandwagon since last December when there was a pretty vocal group of folks on this board that wanted Quinn to start and play more minutes at the point.

Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I know that Coach K doesn't promise anybody anything when he recruits them, and you're not guaranteed to continue in a starting role, just because you have had one in the past. Without knowing much more than a few highlight reels about Sulaimon, I can still say that his size and defensive reputation intrigues me. This will be Seth's fourth year in the program. While it may be a bit embarrassing to "lose" his spot to a freshman, I wonder if the team wouldn't be better served with Seth coming off of the bench as a 3-point sparkplug (as Paulus towards the end of his senior year).

I would personally like see Sulaimon get a lot of PT early and be ready as a taller, defensive-minded, 3-point shooting guard for when March rolls around. Obviously, he would have to really show it in practice for this to happen.

I wonder if Seth hasn't just run into a situation where he is not the best fit for this particular team, late in his career. With Quinn as the point guard, we really need a little more size on the perimeter. Alex definitely ups the overall team size, but I'm not sure if that's enough to absorb two 6-footers in the backcourt (that are not Duhon and Williams).

I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

[jimsumner]

This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.



I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

I expect Curry to start and contend for first-team All-ACC honors. I also expect Sulaimon to get 20-25 mpg, backing up Curry at the 2, Murphy at the 3 and getting at least some burn at the point.

[FerryFor50]

I think Curry will thrive not having to play PG with Cook coming along, Thornton being a year older and Sulaimon being able to handle the ball.

I think we will rebound better from the 1-3 positions.

I think the defense will be better, but not as good as Duke defenses have been in the past.

I think Amile Jefferson will only play spot minutes as he develops.

I expect this Duke team to finish with either the regular season ACC crown or the ACC tourny crown, but not both. A top 15 finish in the AP polls and likely a Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

I also hope I'm wrong and they're way better.

[Cameron]

Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

With that said, Seth is a vaunted shooter, one of the most prolific in the entire game. When he gets on a roll, he's like Super Mario with unlimited fire power. Just as it is when Andre gets on one of those delicious rolls, and as it was with J.J. before him, when Seth gets into an I-am-in-a-f'ing-zone rhythm, you might as well just flip the switch and turn the building's lights out. It's over. And in order for Coach K's open, spacing-predicated offense to really work, it is imperative we have that variety of shooter stalking the perimeter.

He is going to play. Unlike Greg Paulus, who is among my favorite five Blue Devils ever, without question, Seth has enough of a handle and the creativity with the ball in his palms to take a game over offensively on his own. He is that kind of scorer. It just becomes an issue of the staff finding some sort of defensive wrinkle that will help to offset Seth's defensive woes (likely a difficult task as we are certainly never going to seriously entertain the idea of any sort of long-term zone, and I am fine with that), or pairing him, as I have been suggesting, in the backcourt with Rasheed at the point (if Rasheed proves ready), at least against teams where we are likely to get abused by quicker, taller, more athletic guards. Something will have to be done in those instances, because a Seth and Quinn backcourt versus an All-American caliber backcourt is a recipe for a lot of heart attacks.

[NSDukeFan]

I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

With that said, Seth is a vaunted shooter, one of the most prolific in the entire game. When he gets on a roll, he's like Super Mario with unlimited fire power. Just as it is when Andre gets on one of those delicious rolls, and as it was with J.J. before him, when Seth gets into an I-am-in-a-f'ing-zone rhythm, you might as well just flip the switch and turn the building's lights out. It's over. And in order for Coach K's open, spacing-predicated offense to really work, it is imperative we have that variety of shooter stalking the perimeter.

He is going to play. Unlike Greg Paulus, who is among my favorite five Blue Devils ever, without question, Seth has enough of a handle and the creativity with the ball in his palms to take a game over offensively on his own. He is that kind of scorer. It just becomes an issue of the staff finding some sort of defensive wrinkle that will help to offset Seth's defensive woes (likely a difficult task as we are certainly never going to seriously entertain the idea of any sort of long-term zone, and I am fine with that), or pairing him, as I have been suggesting, in the backcourt with Rasheed at the point (if Rasheed proves ready), at least against teams where we are likely to get abused by quicker, taller, more athletic guards. Something will have to be done in those instances, because a Seth and Quinn backcourt versus an All-American caliber backcourt is a recipe for a lot of heart attacks.

I would certainly strongly disagree with your first paragraph and am not sure how it cannot be debated when Seth was a starter on a team that ranked #8 in the country defensively in 2010-11. I don't think he has gotten worse as a defensive player with more time in Duke's system. He has not shown himself to be a defensive stopper so, like any current NCAA player besides perhaps Aaron Craft and Michael Snaer, he struggles to defend elite guards.

I agree he is a very strong offensive player, but don't see coach K trying to offset anything about Seth's game.

The other area I disagree is that Seth, Tyler and Quinn will get abused by all these teams of quicker, taller, more athletic guards. I don't think there are that many teams that have 2 big, quick and good wings that would be a difficult match up for Alex at one wing and Seth at the other wing. (My assumption: team defense is better this year.) I think anytime Duke goes against an All-American caliber backcourt this year that it will be a challenge and the team's defense will have to be at its best. Here are the teams that have at least one member of pre-season all American team in their backcourt from the lists I quickly looked at: Murray State, Ohio State, Lehigh, San Diego St., Arkansas, Louisville, Michigan, Missouri, Florida State, UCLA, Oklahoma State. UCLA has two players I have seen listed as potential wing all-Americans in Kyle Anderson and Shabazz Muhammad. In theory, if Duke played them, maybe Seth would have to guard someone much taller and slower than him (Anderson.) Otherwise, there aren't many teams that have an "All-American" backcourt that would not find it at least as challenging to guard Duke's guards.

Duke did not defend as well last year as in previous years and was small at all three perimeter positions. That is not likely to be the case for at least half the game this year. Along with some improved communication, I expect the team's defense to be much improved and do not think that any of the players will be seen as a liability if the whole team plays better as a unit.

[Edouble]

This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.



I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

[jimsumner]

I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

A 6-footer?

If Curry keeps shrinking, they're going to have to find a new uniform for him.

[Kedsy]

I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

I share your desire for a stronger D, and I agree that a great place to start rebuilding that D is with Rasheed. Where we differ is how to achieve that. I see Rasheed as playing ~25 mpg, split between all three perimeter spots, but with Seth still averaging 30 to 35 mpg. If we run into another McCollum, maybe Rasheed needs to play 30+ minutes (assuming he proves himself to be a true defensive stopper, something we can't know yet), and one or more of our other guards (Seth, Quinn, Tyler) plays fewer minutes in that particular game.

In the past, the Duke defensive scheme has been successful covering for one player with a defensive disadvantage, or even two. You mention Greg Paulus, but our defensive efficiency was ranked 13th, 5th, and 9th in the country by Pomeroy during the three seasons when Greg was a primary starter for us. Last year we often played with both a size and (foot) quickness disadvantage at all three perimeter positions, so it was hard to cover for that. This season, this shouldn't be the case, even when Quinn and Seth are both in the lineup. Rasheed should measure up quickness-wise and in most cases size-wise; Alex should be taller than most of his opponents (I'm not sure how his quickness will measure up); Quinn's feet will hopefully be quicker, assuming his injury is a thing of the past. Tyler will be Tyler.

Seth's defense may not be a plus for us (other than his very quick hands), but I don't think it's the disaster some are making it out to be. Or, put another way, he brings so much on offense it would be hard to justify sitting him for defensive purposes within the context of this year's team.

[Kedsy]

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I remember that, too, but with Coach K I think there's a difference between him saying what position someone's going to play and him saying someone's one of our best players and is going to play a lot. He has always seemed a lot more flexible and willing to re-think positions, but less so about the top of the rotation.

[Cameron]

I would certainly strongly disagree with your first paragraph and am not sure how it cannot be debated when Seth was a starter on a team that ranked #8 in the country defensively in 2010-11. I don't think he has gotten worse as a defensive player with more time in Duke's system. He has not shown himself to be a defensive stopper so, like any current NCAA player besides perhaps Aaron Craft and Michael Snaer, he struggles to defend elite guards.

My tone may be a bit too end-of-the-world (I am naturally hyperbolic at times; I am never going to literally put a bullet in my head even if I say I will if we lose to North Carolina), but I'd strongly contend that Seth's less than stellar overall defensive game was greatly compensated for over the course of the 2010-11 season by playing in the backcourt alongside Nolan Smith, the best defender on the perimeter in the league that year and probably the whole nation. We don't have another defender already on the team like that this year, and certainly didn't last year.

So, it's not my view that Seth has "gotten worse," but moreso that he just hasn't improved all that much, at least enough to suggest a noticeable difference like was clearly evident with Nolan's game over the years. Granted, Nolan came into college as a more naturally gifted defender than did Curry.

I agree he is a very strong offensive player, but don't see coach K trying to offset anything about Seth's game.

Mainly by "offset" I just mean that against the teams that do feature elite level shooting guards like the examples mentioned in your post, it might make more sense to pair Seth with a more versatile player like Rasheed (again, if he proves up to the task) who can help Seth carry the load defensively against players who cause problematic matchups physically and/or athletically. While we may not face many of these types of backcourts throughout the regular-season (although Miami, Kentucky and N.C. State come to mind), it has been our backcourt's inability to stop the explosiveness of these precise kinds of players that has led to some of our struggles in recent NCAA Tournaments (Eric Maynor of VCU and C.J. McCollum last year, as good examples).

[T]here aren't many teams that have an "All-American" backcourt that would not find it at least as challenging to guard Duke's guards.

Agreed fully.

Duke did not defend as well last year as in previous years and was small at all three perimeter positions. That is not likely to be the case for at least half the game this year. Along with some improved communication, I expect the team's defense to be much improved and do not think that any of the players will be seen as a liability if the whole team plays better as a unit.

This is a very valid point and one I hope turns out to be true. The presence of Alex Murphy will certainly lend to helping immensely in this category.