Dave, your sarcasm behooves you. This was not a prognostication just an opinion based on what I have seen this season. Starting in January, Duke has beaten only 2 really good teams, ( UNC and FSU), and has struggled to put others away. Yes, they beat Kansas and Michigan in Maui and Michigan State at MSG early on, but those teams are better now then they were then.
I would never start a thread saying ," See I was right", but would acknowledge your congratulations.
Incidentially, in your opinion, which is worth or is as worthless as mine, how do you think Duke will do in the NCAA tournament ? What are your expectations? Do you think that they are a Final 4 team, an Elite 8 a Sweet 16?
How many really good teams has UNC beaten all year - particularly since Jan? How many games have they struggled to put away (see Duke and UVA)? I think you can say the same about many teams this year. There is really no great team in college ball this year. KY is looking strong but their youth is an issue.
Just what is it that you've observed this year that leads you to conclude that Kentucky's youth is an issue?
Good question. Kentucky's youth (or, in at least one case, immaturity) was an issue in 2010, for sure. And in theory a young team can always tighten up at tournament time. But this particular young Kentucky team plays like a team, not a pickup squad, and they play excellent defense (which is sometimes a problem for younger teams). Not saying they will win it all because a lot can happen. But I wouldn't bet against them right now just because they are young.
Well they have not really played a killer schedule (two wins over Fla who does not match up well against them) and NCAA games tend to be close. KY is very good and could win it all- but experience does seem to matter in the tourney when things get tight. They are likely a FF team - but after that we shall see.
First, thank you! I pride myself on a healthy blend of cynicism and sarcasm!
I try to limit my prognostications on the NCAA tournament. I've followed the event far too long and far too closely to look at a team at the end of the regular season, before conference tournaments are done, and long before pairings are announced, and pretend to have any idea what a group of 18-21 year olds is going to do in an emotionally charged one-and-done event, particularly when they are competing against other groups of 18-21 year olds who are similarly emotionally charged. I also try to steer clear of fortune telling, ouija boards, and astrology.
Answering your fair question without all the humor, I really do think it's pretty pointless to say, "This is an elite eight team." I have no idea who might be our 2nd or 3rd round matchup or, assuming, say, we're a 2 seed, what's going to happen to the hypothetical 1, 4, and 5 seeds in the same bracket in which we haven't yet been placed. In 1983, as of the last game of the regular season, NC State was a "hope you enjoy watching from your dorm room" team. Weeks later, Cozell McQueen was standing on the rim celebrating being the starting center of the national champions.
A better question is probabl˙: is Duke, in my opinion (of questionable worth, I will be the first to admit) a national champion contender, or a team that has too many flaws to seriously make a run? I'd say we're a lot closer to a national champion contender than a team too fatally flawed to realistically make a run. I base that opinion, for what it's worth, on our record to date, particularly our record against NCAA tournament team caliber competition, as well an assessment of the other high level teams out there.
I have no idea, however, how that will translate into whether or not we win the thing, or at what round we might be eliminated. Tell you what, when the brackets are announced, I can tell you if I think we're likely to survive the first weekend. If we survive the first weekend and have an idea who we will face in the regional semis and regional finals, I'll tell you what I think about our chances to survive the 2nd weekend. Etc...
Sounds like you simply assume youth will be an issue, but not based on anything that has happened this year. When this Kentucky team was much younger it defended it's home court against the immensely talented and somewhat experienced Tarheels. Two wins over a pretty good Vandy team and an unbeaten conference schedule, however weak the SEC may be this year. I see no indication of youth as a weakness. We all know that anything can happen in one and done tourney play, and Kentucky may not win it all. But that won't necessarily mean that youth caused their downfall.
Maybe I am a little too optomistic. If you listened to what Coach K had to say about us in the pre game analysis, he clearly said we have the ability to to be anyone, but he felt Carolina had the ability to beat anyone easier than what we do. I agree, and I think there are other teams that are in the same category as UNC. But, our guards aren't going to shoot that bad every night. Regardless of talent, athletic ability, or what have you, there is NO ONE BETTER than Coach K in preparing a team for the tournament. It is a matter of our ability to execute. If our mid range and long range jumpers aren't going down and we play defense as poorly as we did Saturday, we are going to get smoked. I think Coach K has done a fantasitic job with these kids and I'll be wearing my royal blue and white cheering them on.
That's what I assume as well. Doesn't mean Kentucky can't win the title, but they start 3 freshman and 2 sophomores. Their 6th man is a senior, but their 7th and 8th guys are another freshman and a sophomore.
So history is against them. No team other than Michigan's Fab Five has made a Final Four with that kind of inexperience, and even 1992 Michigan had several juniors and seniors coming off the bench. Plus, they didn't win the title.
Was it me, or did we not call any time-outs while we were getting blown out in the first 5 or 6 minutes of the game? Coach K said we were overwhelmed... surprised we didnt call any time-outs early.
Interesting thing was that with 7:27 left- when most the of the first half jitters were supposedly gone- the game was 30-19. Not great but certainly it could have gone either way at that point. UNC finished the half with a 18-5 run to match the 18-5 run at the beginning of the game. But that late run was the ball game- too much separation. If Duke had settled down at tehe end of the first half- when many Duke teams find their rhythm- it might have been a close game. Outside that big run- Duke did not do that badly.
Has Ryan played SF at all this year? Just thought he might be tougher on Barnes with his height since none of our guards can really bother his shot.
And it might have helped on the boards to go with the Plumlees and Ryan in a big lineup. I just can't remember seeing all 3 of them on the floor together at any time this year.
I noticed that....I thought maybe he was taking a play out of roy's book. I think perhaps he thought nothing he could have said during the timeout would have helped the team?
We weren't getting bad shots...but i think maybe just time to say calm down guys...shrug...it was very slow in unfolding...despite being so disastrous...if you recall, it was 4-4...and then 5-8? or something...maybe he was hoping to get to the 16 minute timeout?
April 1
Maybe it's time to reconsider that possibility. I'd rather see Barnes with his suspect handle trying to drive by Ryan, than watch him shoot over our small guards. Putting Rivers on TBP hurts us with Bullock and Marshall gaining a serious advantage over Quinn, Seth, Andre, and Tyler. Can Ryan do any worse?
This has been my pov since before the game @UNC. Even if Black Pigeon gets past Kelly, which he probably would, a) HB is not a gifted passer b) Kelly has a knack for blocking shots from behind, which is helpful since he's got 3 inches on HB c) nobody else has done a particularly effective job. However, Ryan's value is primarily on O and if matched on HB, he ought to be able to shoot over him, which RK can't do vs. Henson, nor can he drive on Henson, whereas RK can post up HB or do the running hook. But if we play all our bigs at once, at least vs UNC, we're left with only Hairston as a reserve frontcourt player.