Politics 2012: The GOP Nominating Race

[sagegrouse]

So while looking ahead to NH, it amazes me that in one state a candidate can do so well and in another do so lousy. Some are consistent (Romney=well, Bachmann=lousy), but others like Santorum are mind boggling in the difference. Today in Iowa, he's clearly a top 3rd choice, while in NH, he's clearly in the bottom 3rd.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-1581.html

And nationally, it's also way different. Newt is dragging along in Iowa, not quite as bad in NH...but nationally he's in front. Bizarre. There have been more lead changes in the last month than we'll see in the NCAA tourney in March!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-1452.html

The Iowa caucus is really different from a primary. One has to be committed not only to go out at a specific time on a cold evening but also to spend 2-3 hours in a meeting. Contrast that with ducking in for five minutes to vote. I think caucuses are undemocratic in the extreme because of the burdens imposed on the voter. They are biased in favor of small, highly committed segments of the electorate (e.g., Ron Paul supporters) and also towards groups where socialization can increase turnout, such as clubs and churches. (Hey! Let's go to the caucus. It will be fun.) And here in Colorado, we seem to do the same thing as in Iowa -- or at least we did in 2008.

sagegrouse

[Mike Corey]

With 88% reporting, Santorum leads by 45 votes.

Paul is stuck in third.

[JasonEvans]

10:50pm update--

The race currently stands at--

Romney 24.9%
Santorum 24.4%
Paul 21.2%
Gingrich 13.2%
Perry 10.2%
Bachman 5.0%

I think Santorum is going to win because there are several counties that have not reported anything on the Western border of the state and Santorum has been strongest in West Iowa.

The story seems to be that no one really out-performed expectations. Maybe Santorum did but there has been so much talk of his surge lately, I am not sure how much he gains from this. I suspect Paul really hoped for a top 2 finish, not that it really matters to him as he is sticking in for a long while and does not have a realistic shot at the nomination. Bachman should withdraw very soon, probably in 48 hours. Gingrich and Perry each need a strong showing in New Hampshire to show they are viable Southern candidates. I am not sure there are 5 tickets out of Iowa so Perry may be close to toast, even though he has the money to stick around a while.

-Jason "We'll see if something changes, but for now, things went largely as expected" Evans

[Mike Corey]

Rick Santorum appears to have come from behind for an explosive win.

The danger this poses for Romney is becoming evident: Perry appears poised to suspend his campaign, which will make winning South C*rolina much more difficult for Romney.

[Bluedog]

Rick Santorum appears to have come from behind for an explosive win.

CNN is showing Santorum ahead by FIVE votes, with 99% precincts in. That's a close race and doesn't seem to over yet...doesn't really matter who actually wins since they get the same number of delegates, but I guess it's a psychological thing.

Edit: Somehow, CNN, has backtracked and now shows 98% in with Romney leading by about 40 votes.

[Duvall]

Retail politics.

[mph]

Rick Santorum appears to have come from behind for an explosive win.

The danger this poses for Romney is becoming evident: Perry appears poised to suspend his campaign, which will make winning South C*rolina much more difficult for Romney.

And Bachmann isn't likely to be around much longer, leaving only Gingrich to compete with Santorum for the votes of social conservatives in SC.

Also, the difference between Santorum and Romney's speeches was striking. Mitt stressed the generic and abstract theme of restoring America's greatness while Santorum stressed his personal story, family history, and his connections with the working class. Don't know how that will sell in NH, but SC and Florida have high unemployment rates.

It's still hard to see how Romney loses the nomination, but he running for a second time, spent tons of money, and is running against a weak field, yet he still didn't do better in Iowa than he did in 2008. He's got to be wondering what he has to do to make Republicans like him.

[mph]

Two more notes:

1. Gingrich's speech made it clear that what time he has left in the race will be spent pummeling Romney and that he'll endorse Santorum as soon as he hangs up his gloves. One commentator tonight said that only 20% of all negative ads in Iowa were directed at Romney. That will change in NH and and SC.

2. Over the next week the media narrative is likely to become Romney's NH performance relative to where he is today. The expectations game could really work against Romney if his margin starts to shrink.

[Duvall]

Two more notes:

1. Gingrich's speech made it clear that what time he has left in the race will be spent pummeling Romney and that he'll endorse Santorum as soon as he hangs up his gloves. One commentator tonight said that only 20% of all negative ads in Iowa were directed at Romney. That will change in NH and and SC.

Well, not if 80% of the negative ads in NH and SC are from Romney or Romney allies.

[mph]

They'll be using this is high school civics classses. With 99% reporting, Romney is 1 vote ahead of Santorum. Every vote counts.

[Mike Corey]

Bringing up political primaries in a civics class may make adolescent heads explode.

"So he won the election, but he's unlikely to win the election? Whaaaa?"

[Duvall]

They'll be using this is high school civics classses. With 99% reporting, Romney is 1 vote ahead of Santorum. Every vote counts.

But with a proportional disposition of delegates, that one vote doesn't really matter, does it?

[snowdenscold]

They'll be using this is high school civics classses. With 99% reporting, Romney is 1 vote ahead of Santorum. Every vote counts.

They should make a movie about it.

Oh wait - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1027862/ =)

[snowdenscold]

They're now calling this in Romney's favor by 8 votes! Yes, EIGHT.

I know it's not a single vote, but that's still a pretty impressive margin. 30,015 to 30,007. Shatters the previous record.

[OldPhiKap]

Perry has cancelled/postponed his trip to Western SC set for today:

http://chronicle.augusta.com/latest-...d?v=1325648124

Not a good sign.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Bachmann vows to move on, saying that "she is the only true conservative in this race". That's an interesting strategy she keeps pushing, since touting herself as the only one has landed her near last place.

[OldPhiKap]

Bachmann vows to move on, saying that "she is the only true conservative in this race". That's an interesting strategy she keeps pushing, since touting herself as the only one has landed her near last place.

It's lonely at the top.

My guess is that she is building her nane for the future, and trying to make some connections for next time.

As the saying goes, you don't stop running for president. You just run out of enough money to continue for now.


Meanwhile, it sounds like Newt is sharpening the long knives for Mitt. Should be an interesting debate Saturday, with Newt and Huntsman both going after Mitt. Newt said some very positive things about Santorum in his speech last night, which makes me think that Gingrich will try to bloody Mitt now and hope he can steal it in SC as opposed to trying to knock Santorum off as the primary non-Mitt. Paul will of course attack them all, and Santorum scored points in past debates attacking both Paul (on Iran) and Mitt (on "Romneycare").

As usual, SC is shaping up to be nasty and dirty. Paging John McCain's illegitimate bi-racial love-child . . . .



(Note for those unaware: that was actually used as a whisper campaign by the Bush folks agianst McCain -- not just throwing that out there for kicks. SC is always nasty).

[Mike Corey]

(Note for those unaware: that was actually used as a whisper campaign by the Bush folks agianst McCain -- not just throwing that out there for kicks. SC is always nasty).

That whisper campaign was about McCain's adopted child, Bridget, who is Bangladeshi and has been a member of the McCain family since 1991. Bridget was living in a Bangladeshi orphanage when Mrs. McCain met her.

Machiavellian tactics have served some candidates better than others. Here, it "worked" for Mr. Bush.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's lonely at the top.

My guess is that she is building her nane for the future, and trying to make some connections for next time.

That's a good point, we often see better showings the second time around..Romney is a great example. I heard a great comment on NPR this morning, they were interviewing a guy who was going in to the caucus to vote. He was in Desmoines, and said that Iowa is used as a test market by lots of companies. "If it is liked in Iowa, it might fly for the rest of the country, but if we don't like it then it won't sell in America. The Iowa caucuses are not about winning, it's about weeding out the guys who shouldn't have run."

[77devil]

It's lonely at the top.

My guess is that she is building her nane for the future, and trying to make some connections for next time.

As the saying goes, you don't stop running for president. You just run out of enough money to continue for now.


Meanwhile, it sounds like Newt is sharpening the long knives for Mitt. Should be an interesting debate Saturday, with Newt and Huntsman both going after Mitt. Newt said some very positive things about Santorum in his speech last night, which makes me think that Gingrich will try to bloody Mitt now and hope he can steal it in SC as opposed to trying to knock Santorum off as the primary non-Mitt. Paul will of course attack them all, and Santorum scored points in past debates attacking both Paul (on Iran) and Mitt (on "Romneycare").

As usual, SC is shaping up to be nasty and dirty. Paging John McCain's illegitimate bi-racial love-child . . . .



(Note for those unaware: that was actually used as a whisper campaign by the Bush folks agianst McCain -- not just throwing that out there for kicks. SC is always nasty).

Nasty indeed. I wonder, however, if this time it will be different. The governor has already endorsed Mitt and the two senators have said they will not or probably not endorse any candidate. Certainly Newt will take his shots, but he is still pledging not to go gotcha negative, Bachman has no money to do damage even if she stays in, and it appears Perry will drop out.

If Mitt is the target of a nasty undercurrent, expect it to focus on Mormonism being a cult, not true Christian, etc.