I think he'll hear the Etch-a-sketch line again come the fall. It is a brilliant attack line. Especially if you can show a commercial with Romney's own aide saying it.
Wow.
It's really amazing how Romney has managed to follow up just about every victory that was supposed to herald "the beginning of the end" with a gaffe that gives his detractors and opponents new ammunition.
(OK, this time I guess it was technically a Romney adviser and not Romney himself, but I'm not sure that's going to soften the impact.)
I think he'll hear the Etch-a-sketch line again come the fall. It is a brilliant attack line. Especially if you can show a commercial with Romney's own aide saying it.
Wow.
Although, although I heard an interesting analysis by a knowledgeable Repub prior to Illinois. He said the Pub voters in the Chicago suburbs recognize that Romney is somewhat insincere and probably not nearly as conservative as he is talking and THEY ARE ALL RIGHT WITH THAT, in that they are somewhat moderate themselves.
This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.
sage
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Illinois is one of the last bastions of old school, "establishment" Republicans - economically conservative (though not necessarily militant/dogmatic in that regard), socially liberal and hawkish but prudent on foreign affairs. There are still plenty of these around the country, but they tend to be more concerned with their day jobs than with grass roots activism. It is hardly surprising that Romney appeals to them, even with his all his warts and gaffes.
Though I think the public is losing interest (I am), and Romney is 95% likely to be the nominee, I think it will go on at least another month to April 24th, when NY and some other Northeast states vote. If Santorum makes it through that, though, he's got potential friendlier territory for him in May. Santorum et al. might keep it going as long as they think they have a chance to somehow stop Romney from getting a delegate majority.
For the record, these totals I guess include Michigan, where Clinton was the only candidate who didn't take her name off the ballot (Obama and others did due to MI's scheduling shenanigans). Obama "won" the vote if you discard MI. These also don't seem to include IA, NV, ME, and WA, all Obama wins that didn't release official vote totals. The margins on RealClearPolitics are:
w/o MI, IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +41,622
w/o MI: Obama +151,844
w/o IA, NV, ME, WA: Clinton +286,687
all inc: Clinton +176,465
*in MI, there were also 238,168 votes for "uncommitted"
**IIRC, they didn't officially campaign in FL, which also makes the FL numbers suspect.
Anyhow, I don't think it's that pertinent to consider how things would have turned out if the rules were different. The candidates would likely have had different strategies if the states were winner-take-all. Same is true this year.
What's more, how do you account for caucus states, that always have significantly lower turnout, versus primary states? If someone really wanted to do this fairly they need to find a way to increase the caucus state voting, probably via some ratio of how those states vote in the general election compared to primary states. I am not sure if that sentence makes sense, but my point is that simply looking at the popular vote in this kind of scenario is a tremendously flawed way of reaching a conclusion.
It is worth noting that the GOP is not allocating delegates proportionally in all states this time around. Instead, most states seem to be giving delegates to winners of each congressional district and then awarding some additional delegates, sometimes proportionally, to the state-wide popular vote winner. If the GOP were handing out delegates proportionally, Romney would be in very serious danger of not getting 50% of the delegates as he has only very rarely reached even close to 50% of the vote in any of these states.
-Jason "I am starting to really wonder if the Etch-a-sketch remark is going to turn into a major, major blunder" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Yeah, that's the only question remaining. Neither Santorum nor Gingrich is going to catch Romney in delegates, but can they keep him from getting 1,144 before the convention? One school of thought says that's the only reason Newt is staying in at this point. He knows he's not winning any more states, knows he's probably coming in third in delegates (he even said so in an interview yesterday). But it's unclear that if he dropped out, the people who vote for him would flock to Santorum -- at least some would go to Romney. So by staying in he holds Santorum back somewhat, but also might be able to hold Romney back just enough to keep him from piling up enough votes (and thus, enough delegates) to sew up the nomination before the convention.
I think this is exactly right. At this point, Newt getting out helps Romney get over the top -- both going forward in primaries, and in the release of his currently-pledged delegates. Newt and Rick are both hoping to keep Mitt from getting over the top so they may get the nod at an open convention, and/or brokering a deal to get out in exchange for "X"
Just when Romney didn't need any more headaches....
Link.
This is one of the greatest developments of the campaign to date. Not just that the birthers are back, this time after the Republican (Fair and Balanced, those birthers), but I'm delighted at the lineage that just got outlined. I confess that I knew nothing about Mitt's great-granddaddy fleeing the US to stay married to Mitt's 4 great-grandmammies (I have mental images of the Greens from Big Love), and I don't think whatever Mitt's great-grandfather did matters one iota with regards to Mitt's capabilities as the prospective POTUS. But there is something deeply gratifying about the idea of people, who absolutely insist that President Obama must be some kind of nefarious non-Christian, having to choose between him and a man who's a couple generations away from a polygamy compound.
My interest level in this election cycle just skyrocketed.
Not that it matters, but Santorum has been declared the winner in Louisiana tonight by a fairly large margin, something close to 20 points.
But, as Nate Silver said earlier today, it seems too little, too late.
-Jason "new polls show Romney up in Wisconsin... which would all but end Santorum's race, I think" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Gingrich isn't quitting because the race isn't over. Ahh...well that makes sense.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ed/?hpt=hp_bn5I think this is not over until it's over
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
For get the Etch-a-Sketch. Arlen Specter just turned the Romney Analogymeter up to 11.
Holy moly.