2009-2010 MBB team

[Kedsy]

Heck, the player that really scares me is John Henson, who needs more muscle. Hans put on 15-20 lbs of muscle his frosh summer. If Henson can have a similiar summer, his body would be good to go day 1.

I think you're right that we tend to think our players will improve and forget that other teams' players will improve as well.

On the other hand, it's iffy to suggest that an incoming freshman will improve drastically over the summer. Henson could add 20 pounds of muscle? Then so could MP2. And if he adds that kind of bulk, look out, right? It's all wild speculation as far as I can see.

[InSpades]

I think everyone is going a little overboard with the negativity. UNC was a team last year that lost to Florida State in the ACC tournament because they were missing Lawson. I'm pretty sure Lawson won't be back next year... also not coming back are their next 3 best players. If Duke lost it's 4 best players then I think the sky would fall and the hellmouth would open and swallow DBR whole. Duke returns 4 starters from last year, UNC loses 4 starters from last year. Duke returns the pre-season favorite for ACC PotY. I realize Duke last year was not UNC last year. I also realize that UNC's freshmen may be a bit better than our freshmen. Henson in particular looks like a handful, but they still are freshmen, no? The biggest problem is obviously that Duke is losing depth in the backcourt and that has to concern everyone. It's certainly not the end of the world though. I'm excited for next year, with or without John Wall.

[johaad]

On the other hand, it's iffy to suggest that an incoming freshman will improve drastically over the summer. Henson could add 20 pounds of muscle? Then so could MP2. And if he adds that kind of bulk, look out, right? It's all wild speculation as far as I can see.

Exactly. There is no way to judge improvement of players short of watching them practice day in and day out. I think player improvement speculation is the most difficult type of speculation.

By the way, Inspades, great post. I agree wholeheartedly.

[Sobriquet]

Oklahoma just lost the national player of the year. How do you figure they'll be as good or better?

Keith Tiny Gallon, Tommie Mason-Griffen, Kyle Hardrick, Andrew Fitzgerald
and others.

Willie Warren improves. A true, pass first PG in TMG, and a huge low post in Gallon that will put up big numbers. OK lost the griffens, but they easily replaced the younger bro, get better at PG, and have one of the better SG's in the nation. And a low post banger with skills who is eerily reminiscent of one Elton Brand. Not saying Tiny is that good, but he looked beastly at McD's.

And I said static or better. OK came in second to KS in the big 12, which I expect to repeat itself. OK is no worse than third in the big 12, dep on Texas's attrition.

[Sobriquet]

I think you're right that we tend to think our players will improve and forget that other teams' players will improve as well.

On the other hand, it's iffy to suggest that an incoming freshman will improve drastically over the summer. Henson could add 20 pounds of muscle? Then so could MP2. And if he adds that kind of bulk, look out, right? It's all wild speculation as far as I can see.

Agreed. If MP1 OR MP2 really hit the weight room, Duke's outlook really improves. I mean dramatically. The uncertainty about Duke's post options is a real anchor on this team's outlook. There is a rosy outlook that all of Duke's posts will improve noticably, and the post will be an area of strength. Similiarly, the rosy outlook is that Nolan and E-Will will shore up their games giving Duke great play, if little depth, at the guard.

A pessimistic view would be that Lance and Z have shown little improvement to date and the odds of them becoming legitimate low post options are slim. Also, the Plums need lots of work and won't be ready next year, ditto Kelly. As for the guards, they WILL improve, no doubt, but whether that improvement rises to the level we need is doubtful.

I tend toward the pessimistic view in general (if not this particular case). But the reality is that our player improvement will fall somewhere in the middle. Some of our players will really improve, and some won't. I have my opinions as to who that will be, but it is a baseless opinion with no facts to support it. Will we improve? Sure. I just doubt that we will improve to the level that some expect.

As a personal note, I don't think Henson adds that much weight. For the last 2 years, every prognosticator has been raving about where Henson will be once he adds weight. Only he hasn't. Some players are hard-gainers when it comes to weight. Think Casey Saunders, who just couldn't add weight until his Jr year, and still never got anywhere near an ideal playing weight for his size. If Henson is still a 6-9 ish, 195 (lb) (yeah right) stick, his effectiveness is considerably lessened.

I think everyone is going a little overboard with the negativity. UNC was a team last year that lost to Florida State in the ACC tournament because they were missing Lawson. I'm pretty sure Lawson won't be back next year... also not coming back are their next 3 best players. If Duke lost it's 4 best players then I think the sky would fall and the hellmouth would open and swallow DBR whole. Duke returns 4 starters from last year, UNC loses 4 starters from last year. Duke returns the pre-season favorite for ACC PotY. I realize Duke last year was not UNC last year. I also realize that UNC's freshmen may be a bit better than our freshmen. Henson in particular looks like a handful, but they still are freshmen, no? The biggest problem is obviously that Duke is losing depth in the backcourt and that has to concern everyone. It's certainly not the end of the world though. I'm excited for next year, with or without John Wall.

Yeah, but UNC returns a lot and has a high level recruiting class comming in. It is not a top flight class, as was previously thought. Strickland is unprepared to take over the PG, as Roy thought/hoped last year. The Wear Twins look like capable role players.

But Henson looks like a stud who can fill up the basket.

UNC did lose a lot, but their roster was so much more talented than anyone else in the nation that their cupboard is still relatively full.

And UNC is not iffy in the post (like Duke). Right now, they have one of the best front lines in the nation. Sure, they lost Hans. But, while he scored and rebounded well, he was allergic to defense and was a black hole as a passer. Thompson blossomed last year, and I personally think (and it is an opinion that is not unpopular in the media) that Thompson will put up Hans esque numbers next year as a lead option in the post. And he plays solid D. At the C position will be Ed Davis, who looks beastly. Solid on O, and a terror on D. A shot blocker who will discourage drives, making it easier for inexperienced perimeter defenders to stay on thier guy. Next year's Ed Davis will be a better player than last year's Danny Green, and maybe better than Wayne Ellingtion. Maybe a LOT better.

Without Wall, one of our best offensive guys, Jon, will be D'd up by Ginyard, one of the best defensive players in the nation, who happens to be a great matchup for Jon (from UNC's pov). That leaves Strickland or Henson, or MacDonald (who is real familiar with E-Will's game) on E-Will and Drew or Strick on Nolan. Given that Ed Davis can cause problems for Kyle, and Thompson/Zeller looks good against our C options, UNC has to like that scenario.

Ginyard/Green is a wash.
Thompson is back, and with Ed Davis, the addition of Zeller who will spend the summer improving, and the Wear twins for backup/practice opponents, UNC's post is not noticably worse than last year's, most of which was spent without Zeller. With solif player improvement, from top to bottom UNC could be better in the post overall this year. Their post D took a giant step forward the instant Han's eligibility expired.

Their Guard rotation is IFFY. But if Henson can handle the 3, and Ginyard slides to SG, they should be OK. All Drew has to do is not lose games.

Wall introduces an element to Duke's O that UNC doesn't have a great counter for. Given both of their sizes, Ginyard could guard Wall, or maybe Strickland who is a good athlete. But I still like Wall to win either matchup, albeit less than if Roy were dumb enough to put Mac or Drew on Wall. If a good defender is tied up with Wall, that leaves an overwhelmed, undersized, underclassman guarding the crafty Scheyer, and similiar with whatever other wing is in the game. Further, Ed Davis and the other posts will have to keep an eye on Wall to help out on penetration, meaning that Kyle will have more room to operate, as will whatever other tall is in the game.

Frankly, this is WHY this thread has grown to this level and why Wall is such a key recruit. He is only one player, but he dramatically alters our team's makeup and what we can do. I mean hugely alters. Suddenly we have 4 good to great options for 3 G positions. And a run-n-gun PG prevents our thinish, but mobile, bigs from having to really beat and bang against low post widebodies. Instead they can attack the basket following Wall's drives or get Dishes, or run in transition.

Yes, UNC lost a lot. But they return a terrific front line, a very good Wing, and a decent PG. Added to that are recruits that add depth to the backcourt and a WF/PF with as much potential as any recruit in the class.

As things currently stand, I cannot say that Duke is better than UNC. Nor can I say UNC is better. But UNC has depth, skill, experience and size in the front court. And that is more than I can say for Duke.

[gumbomoop]

Nor do they have Kyle Singler or Jon Scheyer. And they've lost Hansbrough, Green, Ellington, and Lawson... No way they are as good next season as they have been the past 2 seasons. No need to stress out about our prospects next year, with or without Henderson and Wall.

Correct, in all particulars. As K stated one week ago [Tavis Smiley show, 4/29, I think], he thinks we're preseason top 10. Posters who have us at 12-18 may or may not [I think not] be correct that that's where we should be placed next Oct., but in most of the dozen or so pre-season lists, we will be top 10.

As I and others have noted, next year there's no team with the pre-season on-paper look [talent and experience] of Oct. '08's UNC, nor UConn, nor even, probably, Pitt. Kansas is sure to be #1 in most pre-season lists. Even w/o G/Wall, I think we're top 7 [Kansas, Mich St, Texas, UK-depending, 'Nova, Duke, UNC]. With either G or Wall, we're #2 or 3.

UNC is clearly better than Duke in frontcourt, and Ed Davis is superb, but they got no Singler [clear pre-season conf POY pick over Teague, Booker, Davis], nor Scheyer. Someone once posted that some of us overvalue JS, and I asked for details so I could consider them, but none have thus far appeared.

Clemson, Wake, FSU, maybe Ga Tech will challenge for top spots in ACC, and certainly in the several prognostications that will appear, I could see Wake and Clemson getting some 1st/2d place votes; but overall Duke will be slim pick for conf #1.

I hope, but cannot realistically expect, a breakout year from Z, so my hope at 5 is in development of both MPs, and a few points and lots of rebounds from 5-by-committee. Any offensive talent in the post would benefit measurably from Singler passes. Will he have someone to pass to, someone with good footwork?

Overall, our fortunes rest, imo, on clear improvement [ball handling, relentless intensity and confidence] from Nolan and EWill. If - yep, big if - that happens, deep tourney run. If not, disppointment.

[rotogod00]

"As K stated one week ago [Tavis Smiley show, 4/29, I think], he thinks we're preseason top 10. Posters who have us at 12-18 may or may not [I think not] be correct that that's where we should be placed next Oct., but in most of the dozen or so pre-season lists, we will be top 10."

as a point of reference, over at ESPN, katz has us at 10 and gottlieb has us at 12

[InSpades]

On the topic of "all Drew has to do is not lose games". If you replace Lawson with Drew last year and Drew does the "not lose games" thing. How good do you think they are? Will the supporting cast next year be better or worse than it was last year?

As far as depth goes... UNC basically played 7 guys in the NCAA tournament last year. 5 of them aren't going to be there next year. When Lawson was hurt, Frasor played more point than Drew did. If UNC had all this talent, then it wasn't really being used at all.

Agreed that Thompson and Davis could be amazing, but don't you think maybe they benefitted from being surrounded by a great PG and the all-time leading ACC scorer in the middle? They also had 3 guys on the perimeter capable of hitting 3s (all of whom are gone).

UNC has more questions than Duke going into next year. They may also have more answers but that is yet to be seen.

[CDu]

UNC has more questions than Duke going into next year. They may also have more answers but that is yet to be seen.

Agreed. I think that Davis will be a revelation next year (I think UNC underutilized him last year), and he and Thompson make a nice pairing with Thompson being more of a finesse player and Davis providing the intimidation in the paint. And I think Henson adds a nice dimension to that team.

But despite that, they do have a lot of question marks. Their backcourt is either of questionable skill level (Drew) or completely unproven (Strickland and McDonald). They have two post guys with a strong shot at All-ACC honors this year, but other than that literally everyone is an unknown.

I'd say that, right now, Duke would have the higher expected results, but UNC has the higher ceiling for results for next year. UNC just has a lot more variability in potential results. Things could work out really well or really badly for them next year.

And of course, the equation would change substantially if either team gets John Wall.

[rotogod00]

for comparison purposes, katz has carolina at 4 and gottlieb has them at 9

[Sobriquet]

Correct, in all particulars. As K stated one week ago [Tavis Smiley show, 4/29, I think], he thinks we're preseason top 10. Posters who have us at 12-18 may or may not [I think not] be correct that that's where we should be placed next Oct., but in most of the dozen or so pre-season lists, we will be top 10.

As I and others have noted, next year there's no team with the pre-season on-paper look [talent and experience] of Oct. '08's UNC, nor UConn, nor even, probably, Pitt. Kansas is sure to be #1 in most pre-season lists. Even w/o G/Wall, I think we're top 7 [Kansas, Mich St, Texas, UK-depending, 'Nova, Duke, UNC]. With either G or Wall, we're #2 or 3.

UNC is clearly better than Duke in frontcourt, and Ed Davis is superb, but they got no Singler [clear pre-season conf POY pick over Teague, Booker, Davis], nor Scheyer. Someone once posted that some of us overvalue JS, and I asked for details so I could consider them, but none have thus far appeared.

I have a few quibbles. Preseason, we are top 10, right now. I do worry that our in-season improvement would be lower than some other teams, although there would be less variance in our expected outcome. Basically we have less risk, both upside and downside.

Second, Kansas is definitely up near where UNC was last year, and probably ahead of Uconn, Pit, and Louisville. KU is loaded. In Cole Aldridge and Sherron Collins they have two outstanding players at C and PG, arguably the two most important positions in College hoops. They have great Depth accross the board. This year's recruiting class includes an athletic PF, an athletic PG, and probably the best SG in the class in Xavier Henry. Their biggest weaknesses last year were an athletic WG, and depth in the post and at the SG.

Done and Done. KU was probably the number 1 team next year before Xavier Henry committed. And he is a top 5 level player. KU is next year's UNC. They will lose some games, but come March they will be brutal.

As for Kyle, I don't know that he is preseason CPOY. He sure isn't the front runner. Ed Davis will mount a serious charge, Teague has loads of potential, and Aminu will be a name on everyone's lips. Kyle is a shoe in for Pre season all Conf, but POY is no lock.

As for over-valuing Jon, I think it breaks down like this:

Other teams fans undervalue Jon's total game. They expected him to be a JJesque shooter, and he isn't. He isn't a great athlete, so they discount him. But he is a better athlete than they give him credit. And his IQ and feel for the game are unmatched. He does a lot of little things right, and he is a deceptively good defender, which a lot of fans don't understand or don't believe because of Jon's athletic questions.

Conversely, we Duke fans over-value Jon. He does a lot of little things well. But he doesn't do any one thing great. His athleticism is more of a problem than we like to believe. Jon can do a lot of things on O. But, because of his solid, but not great, athleticism, he can be defended by 1 person. A lot of teams play Man to Man on D, but the best players all draw help defenders. Last year, the opposing team's best defender was assigned to G, and that defender knew he would get help on G's drives because a couple of other guys had their eye on D and slouched off their guy to provide help. I mean, whoever was guarding Z or Lance wasn't worried about their guy, but they were worried about G. Teams don't worry about Jon. Much like JJ, a dedicated, athletic, defender can really put the clamps down on Jon. They can't shut him down, but they can really limit Jon's effectiveness. Now, not every team is going to have an athletic, 6-5 ish wing who can play good to great D. But many of the top teams do have that guy. Ginyard at UNC can cause Jon real problems, and I anticipate him doing just that next year

Basically, other teams underestimate Jon because they do not recognize all the little things he does and they underestimate his athleticicsm, which is decent.

We overestimate Jon because we put too much emphasis on those little things while not recognizing that Jon's athleticism DOES pose a few problems.

We are closer to correct than opposing fans. But Jon's game has some limitations, which we too often dismiss.

[Billy Dat]

I have to agree with those who are seriously underestimating the loss of Lawson, Psycho T and Danny Green.

Since Lawson hit Chapel Hill, they have been extremely good with him and extremely pedestrian when he has been out.

Psycho T and Danny Green were part of a class that stepped in an made UNC legit in a year when they were supposed to take a huge step back. They weren't average players - Psycho T was an extremely "special" player and Green's play and swagger, for lack of a better term, was a huge part of their identity.

Doesn't it stand to reason that maybe Davis and Zeller looked so good because no one was paying attention to them. I'm not wet behind the ears, I know Davis is a beast, but let's see what happens when the spotlight is on him.

Henson looks good too, but why do we assume he'll be great and our highly ranked freshmen will need a year to develop? Did anyone think JJ Redick was going to make the mark he made his freshman year?

Wake? You think James Johnson isn't as big a loss to them as G is to us?

If history has shown anything, it's that experienced teams with talent do really well. We'll be that kind of team next year, and Wall or no Wall, I am ready to go to war with Elliott, Nolan and Scheyer in the backcourt.

As for the Heels, losing Lawson alone makes them a lot worse, let alone the other guys. Inspades said it right.

[rotogod00]

"As K stated one week ago [Tavis Smiley show, 4/29, I think], he thinks we're preseason top 10. Posters who have us at 12-18 may or may not [I think not] be correct that that's where we should be placed next Oct., but in most of the dozen or so pre-season lists, we will be top 10."

as a point of reference, over at ESPN, katz has us at 10 and gottlieb has us at 12

btw, gottlieb quotes: "If Duke lands John Wall, it immediately becomes ready for a deep tourney run."

[gumbomoop]

I have a few quibbles. Preseason, we are top 10, right now. I do worry that our in-season improvement would be lower than some other teams, although there would be less variance in our expected outcome. Basically we have less risk, both upside and downside.

Second, Kansas is definitely up near where UNC was last year, and probably ahead of Uconn, Pit, and Louisville. KU is loaded. In Cole Aldridge and Sherron Collins they have two outstanding players at C and PG, arguably the two most important positions in College hoops. They have great Depth accross the board. This year's recruiting class includes an athletic PF, an athletic PG, and probably the best SG in the class in Xavier Henry. Their biggest weaknesses last year were an athletic WG, and depth in the post and at the SG.

Done and Done. KU was probably the number 1 team next year before Xavier Henry committed. And he is a top 5 level player. KU is next year's UNC. They will lose some games, but come March they will be brutal.

As for Kyle, I don't know that he is preseason CPOY. He sure isn't the front runner. Ed Davis will mount a serious charge, Teague has loads of potential, and Aminu will be a name on everyone's lips. Kyle is a shoe in for Pre season all Conf, but POY is no lock.

As for over-valuing Jon, I think it breaks down like this:

Other teams fans undervalue Jon's total game. They expected him to be a JJesque shooter, and he isn't. He isn't a great athlete, so they discount him. But he is a better athlete than they give him credit. And his IQ and feel for the game are unmatched. He does a lot of little things right, and he is a deceptively good defender, which a lot of fans don't understand or don't believe because of Jon's athletic questions.

Conversely, we Duke fans over-value Jon. He does a lot of little things well. But he doesn't do any one thing great. His athleticism is more of a problem than we like to believe. Jon can do a lot of things on O. But, because of his solid, but not great, athleticism, he can be defended by 1 person. A lot of teams play Man to Man on D, but the best players all draw help defenders. Last year, the opposing team's best defender was assigned to G, and that defender knew he would get help on G's drives because a couple of other guys had their eye on D and slouched off their guy to provide help. I mean, whoever was guarding Z or Lance wasn't worried about their guy, but they were worried about G. Teams don't worry about Jon. Much like JJ, a dedicated, athletic, defender can really put the clamps down on Jon. They can't shut him down, but they can really limit Jon's effectiveness. Now, not every team is going to have an athletic, 6-5 ish wing who can play good to great D. But many of the top teams do have that guy. Ginyard at UNC can cause Jon real problems, and I anticipate him doing just that next year

Basically, other teams underestimate Jon because they do not recognize all the little things he does and they underestimate his athleticicsm, which is decent.

We overestimate Jon because we put too much emphasis on those little things while not recognizing that Jon's athleticism DOES pose a few problems.

We are closer to correct than opposing fans. But Jon's game has some limitations, which we too often dismiss.

Good points here, and I definitely appreciate the specifics re JS's being a bit overvalued by his admirers, including me for sure. I think I so appreciate JS's "playing the game the way it should be played" [by which I guess I mean with amazing court-awareness, sort of a la Battier] that I'm guilty of downplaying his lack of athleticism.

Your point, probably made by others, too, re issues about our insufficient in-season improvement, seems plausible, as well.

I agree that CPOY is no lock, so I must have let my confidence in KS's total game lead me to overstate his case. He does, I trust you will agree, in fact have a good case... If Davis gets enough time and has improved offensively, he could get it, as could Teague, maybe, maybe Booker.

Having said that Kansas is clear pre-#1, I'm certainly high on them, though I'm not yet willing to put them in UNC's Oct. '08 look. The difference, imo, is experienced talent. KU's gonna have some of it in '09-'10, but surely not at the Hans-Lawson-Ell-Green-Thompson level.

And to rotogod00's point about "points of reference," fair enough, but Goodman at Foxsports has us at 9, as does DeCourcy at SN, not to mention CollegeHoopsNet, where we [overrated] at #1.

Finally, in this thread's mutli-cornered debate about our '09-'10 prospects, it appears that virtually all agree that there are real questions that must be answered. Some seem to look forward to how K answers them; others worry, legitimately, that there are no easy answers.

[Matches]

I have to agree with those who are seriously underestimating the loss of Lawson, Psycho T and Danny Green.

It doesn't matter who they lost. It matters who they have coming back. Lawson, Hanstravel and the rest are as irrelevant to a discussion of 09-10 UNC as Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins would be.

They have a very formidable and deep front line - one that is perhaps better *defensively* than any they've had in a really long time. They have a freshman coming in who many expect to be an immediate scorer. They have an excellent wing defender in Ginyard.

Where they're weak is at the PG spot, and generally as far as depth in the backcourt. That's not an insignificant flaw but it is not fatal. They will be very good again unless Henson is a bust, Drew is really terrible, and their underclassmen fail to develop as one would expect.

[Billy Dat]

It doesn't matter who they lost. It matters who they have coming back.

Who they lost matters hugely because those are the players that established the recent run of dominance over Duke, the players who won 6 of 8 and set off the alarm bells that have plagued these boards.

UNC doesn't run a Tom Izzo style smash mouth pound the boards game, they live and die on their breakneck running game and legendary, secondary break. That system requires an elite point guard to make it go go go. As such, Lawson's departure is enormous.

Their system depends on an elite PG as much as ours. We've gotten used to playing without one for many years now which I think works in our favor.

Granted, my whole premise rests on the belief that Lawson was an enormous difference maker for that team - the most important player by a wide margin. Losing him, to me, can't be overlooked. As such, I think that UNC losing who they lost puts them at a big disadvantage compared to us losing G, Paulus and McClure, regardless of the recruiting classes because it's impossible to predict how those will turn out.

[Matches]

Who they lost matters hugely because those are the players that established the recent run of dominance over Duke, the players who won 6 of 8 and set off the alarm bells that have plagued these boards.

UNC doesn't run a Tom Izzo style smash mouth pound the boards game, they live and die on their breakneck running game and legendary, secondary break. That system requires an elite point guard to make it go go go. As such, Lawson's departure is enormous.

UNC *hasn't* played that kind of game over the last several years because it didn't fit their personnel. Now they have different personnel, and it stands to reason that their system will change to adjust to the players they have.

Much like we've played more half-court the last few years since we've lacked a true PG. When we had JWill and Battier we ran like crazy. When we had JJ we ran more set plays. Good coaches adapt their systems to their personnel.

[Billy Dat]

UNC *hasn't* played that kind of game over the last several years because it didn't fit their personnel.

My friend, according to KenPom, they were ranked 8th in the country for Tempo/Pace, their unadjusted rank was 4th. The only other team of note that ranked higher was Washington. They played really fast last year, and the year before.

While I give Roy a ton of respect, I don't think adjusting his system to his personnel is his strongest suit.

[InSpades]

My friend, according to KenPom, they were ranked 8th in the country for Tempo/Pace, their unadjusted rank was 4th. The only other team of note that ranked higher was Washington. They played really fast last year, and the year before.

While I give Roy a ton of respect, I don't think adjusting his system to his personnel is his strongest suit.

I think his point was that they have had the horses to run of late so that's what they have done. They haven't played a smash-mouth type style because that hasn't been their personnel. Next year they will have to play that style because they don't have the talented guards to run the up-tempo style. This is precisely why I think UNC is full of questions for next year. They will be a completely different team. We don't know if Thompson and Davis can succeed as the focal points of an offsense. Next year we will have to find out.

This is why I think Duke will be better. For better or worse they will be a very similiar team next year. Duke will be bigger and slightly less athletic, but for the most part you will see much of the same. Singler and Scheyer taking a lot of 3s and hopefully Nolan and E-Will taking Gerald's offensive opportunities.

[ACCBBallFan]

While adding John Wall would give Duke a true PG and some depth aside Jon-Nolan-Elliott, it does not solve Duke's more major problem of getting a jumbo sized productive center.

With or without Wall, Duke's only two legitimate candidates are Miles Plumlee and Brian Zoubek. Besides being freshmen, Mason and Kelly are tall but lack weight, strength and experience. Lance is experienced but lacks height weight and strength.

Zoubek is what he is and Jumbo's stats prove he is one of Duke's most productive +/- players a fact not immediately evident from mere observations without metrics, a case of substance over form.

Miles appeared to have the potential at beginning of last year and for whatever reasons faded, but he could work on those deficiencies in off season.

Realistically Mason and Ryan Kelly even on a rigorous strength and conditioning program will take a year to get up to size.

Wall would be an improvement, but Nolan-Jon-Elliott are sufficient in a two guard set. Wall also gives coach K the flexibility to play either a two guard or a three guard set, something both practice teams cannot do with only 4 guards counting Curry unless Jordan Davidson is available.

So adding John Wall would be an overall plus but not necessarily the silver bullet some are making him out to be. Having teammates like Jon, Kyle, Elliott, Nolan and whichever bigs surface will make Wall as productive as any other college teammates next year.

Despite the UK Propaganda, Wall would learn more practicing daily vs. Nolan, Jon and Elliot than vs. Bledsoe who like Wall only has High School and AAU experience.