Time to take Duke seriously as a Final Four contender

[MarkD83]

I'm having trouble following. Are you saying that we are undefeated except in overtime games??

No I think it means we are undefeated except when we lose. (Its friday and I am a little tired and punchy.)

[Kedsy]

No I think it means we are undefeated except when we lose. (Its friday and I am a little tired and punchy.)

Well, since we lost our only overtime game, that's exactly what he's saying. That's why it's 0-4 and not 1-3.

[UrinalCake]

I think he's drawing attention to the oddity of the UNC game which we won at/after the buzzer. Technically when the clock ran out we were losing by two points, while the ball was still in the air, but we still won the game. Thus you could say we were outscored in regulation.

[CDu]

Well, since we lost our only overtime game, that's exactly what he's saying. That's why it's 0-4 and not 1-3.

Exactly. Any of the math has to sum to our record (24-4). The numbers in that post I referenced summed to 25-3. The issue is, as Kedsy noted, we are 0-4 (not 1-3) in games we didn't lead after regulation.

[CDu]

I think he's drawing attention to the oddity of the UNC game which we won at/after the buzzer. Technically when the clock ran out we were losing by two points, while the ball was still in the air, but we still won the game. Thus you could say we were outscored in regulation.

I really didn't think this would require so many additional posts. We are 24-4. The numbers summed to 25-3. Therefore, there was an error somewhere (just depends on where). In your interpretatation of the post we would be 23-0 (not 24-0) in games we led after at regulation end (we have only led in 23 games right at the buzzer) and 1-4 (not 1-3) in other games.

Sorry to have spawned so many posts on something not intended to be at all cryptic.

[OldPhiKap]

We're 28-0 in my mind.

Everything less than that is someone else's problem.

[MCFinARL]

We're 28-0 in my mind.

Everything less than that is someone else's problem.

Hmmm....remind me not to hire you as my investment advisor.

[OldPhiKap]

Hmmm....remind me not to hire you as my investment advisor.

Well, if you don't want your money to double every year, guaranteed, that's your loss.


"Bonds are for sissies. All in."

-- BrokePhiKap.

[NM Duke Fan]

The crux of the matter to me, and what I had in mind when I posted the article, is that we have already beaten a few teams which have at least a moderate chance of making it to the final four. And yes, that even includes Florida State. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Duke also has a chance of being in that final four group. Yes, the team has some well-known weaknesses. But so do the vast majority of teams, it is not an exceptionally strong year for juggernaut teams. Kentucky is clearly a strong team in most aspects of the game, in a class of its own, but certainly not unbeatable! If Duke continues to improve its consistency, effort on D, communication, and passing, it can hang in there with just about any team. Austin has really matured his game in the last month, and this is a stronger team now which can do some real damage. The biggest problem I see is IF all the three point shooters have a bad night, then it will be a struggle to advance in the tournament. And fortunately there are enough of those shooters that usually one or two will come through.

[uh_no]

The crux of the matter to me, and what I had in mind when I posted the article, is that we have already beaten a few teams which have at least a moderate chance of making it to the final four. And yes, that even includes Florida State. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Duke also has a chance of being in that final four group. Yes, the team has some well-known weaknesses. But so do the vast majority of teams, it is not an exceptionally strong year for juggernaut teams. Kentucky is clearly a strong team in most aspects of the game, in a class of its own, but certainly not unbeatable! If Duke continues to improve its consistency, effort on D, communication, and passing, it can hang in there with just about any team. Austin has really matured his game in the last month, and this is a stronger team now which can do some real damage. The biggest problem I see is IF all the three point shooters have a bad night, then it will be a struggle to advance in the tournament. And fortunately there are enough of those shooters that usually one or two will come through.

2-11 today from three. There are enough examples of us having poor shooting nights from three (OSU, washington, georgia tech, uva, maryland, ncsu, today) to think that we can't have off three point shooting nights. Last year we had just as many if not MORE shooters, and had 4 games in the last month of the season when we shot 25% or worse from 3 (michigan, maryland, unc, vt) we also shot 19% against st johns and 25% against fsu earlier in the year.

[tendev]

If we can get a 1 seed, we basically have to win only three games against opponents who can beat us. Yes, we can beat any three teams in the country who won't be 1 seeds. So yes, we can get to the Final Four but we can lose to any one of those three opponents as well. In my heart, they always win the National Championship but in my head, they are anywhere from second round to Elite 8. I think we always have to battle expectations and teams who are jacked up to play us. And if a team gets on a roll against us and we let them get up by double digits, I don't expect we will be able to come roaring back like we have done against lesser teams like NC State, Miami. Carolina, I just see as an outlier, but maybe I am wrong. If the ACC is really weak, then we are in trouble because we have not exactly dominated the conference, though we are at the top of the standings.

[OldPhiKap]

If we can get a 1 seed, we basically have to win only three games against opponents who can beat us. Yes, we can beat any three teams in the country who won't be 1 seeds. So yes, we can get to the Final Four but we can lose to any one of those three opponents as well. In my heart, they always win the National Championship but in my head, they are anywhere from second round to Elite 8. I think we always have to battle expectations and teams who are jacked up to play us. And if a team gets on a roll against us and we let them get up by double digits, I don't expect we will be able to come roaring back like we have done against lesser teams like NC State, Miami. Carolina, I just see as an outlier, but maybe I am wrong. If the ACC is really weak, then we are in trouble because we have not exactly dominated the conference, though we are at the top of the standings.

If Duke or Carolina win out, they should certainly be a #1.

Don't think either will do it, though.

All we can do is worry about our matches as they come, and execute like we should.

[uh_no]

If we can get a 1 seed, we basically have to win only three games against opponents who can beat us. Yes, we can beat any three teams in the country who won't be 1 seeds. So yes, we can get to the Final Four but we can lose to any one of those three opponents as well. In my heart, they always win the National Championship but in my head, they are anywhere from second round to Elite 8. I think we always have to battle expectations and teams who are jacked up to play us. And if a team gets on a roll against us and we let them get up by double digits, I don't expect we will be able to come roaring back like we have done against lesser teams like NC State, Miami. Carolina, I just see as an outlier, but maybe I am wrong. If the ACC is really weak, then we are in trouble because we have not exactly dominated the conference, though we are at the top of the standings.

take a look at who we've beaten though, kansas, UNC, MSU...we could win the title, we could go out in the second round....it all depends on the matchups and whether we can play defense or not

[SupaDave]

If we can get a 1 seed, we basically have to win only three games against opponents who can beat us. Yes, we can beat any three teams in the country who won't be 1 seeds. So yes, we can get to the Final Four but we can lose to any one of those three opponents as well. In my heart, they always win the National Championship but in my head, they are anywhere from second round to Elite 8. I think we always have to battle expectations and teams who are jacked up to play us. And if a team gets on a roll against us and we let them get up by double digits, I don't expect we will be able to come roaring back like we have done against lesser teams like NC State, Miami. Carolina, I just see as an outlier, but maybe I am wrong. If the ACC is really weak, then we are in trouble because we have not exactly dominated the conference, though we are at the top of the standings.

The Big East has 9 teams with records of .500 or below in conference play.

The SEC has 6 teams of 12 with records of below .500 in conference play and three more that are a loss away from being .500.

The Big 12 has 5 of 10 teams with records of below .500 and the top of the conference is very hotly contested with Missouri having a better overall record than conference leader Kansas - who we beat.

The Big 10 has 6 of 12 teams with records of below .500 and two that are a loss away from .500. Ohio State has faded and we are quite familiar with Michigan and Michigan State.

Take from this what you may...

Supa "the Big 10 and Big 12 has got to be the most backwards thing I've ever seen" Dave

[NYBri]

Seeding variables. Next two weeks will determine the difference between a #1 or potentially a #3.

#1

Beat Carolina and win ACCT. Guaranteed.
Lose to Carolina and win ACCT. #1 with some help from other tourneys.

#2
Beat Carolina and lose early in the ACCT.
Lose to Carolina and reach championship game in ACCT.
Lose to Carolina and not reach championship game in ACCT with help.

#3
Lose to Carolina and not make championship game in ACCT.

Of course if we lose to Wake, then all of the above are out the window.

Any others?

[uh_no]

The Big East has 9 teams with records of .500 or below in conference play.

The SEC has 6 teams of 12 with records of below .500 in conference play and three more that are a loss away from being .500.

The Big 12 has 5 of 10 teams with records of below .500 and the top of the conference is very hotly contested with Missouri having a better overall record than conference leader Kansas - who we beat.

The Big 10 has 6 of 12 teams with records of below .500 and two that are a loss away from .500. Ohio State has faded and we are quite familiar with Michigan and Michigan State.

Take from this what you may...

Supa "the Big 10 and Big 12 has got to be the most backwards thing I've ever seen" Dave

wait...maybe i'm missing the point....but you've pointed out that about half of every conference is below 500....which is generally what you expect

[SupaDave]

wait...maybe i'm missing the point....but you've pointed out that about half of every conference is below 500....which is generally what you expect

Actually it's a bit more. The Big East isn't that good as far I'm concerned. The Big 10 is beating on each other. The SEC is exceptionally weak. We actually beat the leader of the Big 12.

All that to say - what does it matter if the ACC is weak? A tough game is a tough game and they have them in every conference. Come tourney play I'm very happy with how Duke stacks up.

[Wander]

#1

Beat Carolina and win ACCT. Guaranteed.
Lose to Carolina and win ACCT. #1 with some help from other tourneys.

#2
Beat Carolina and lose early in the ACCT.
Lose to Carolina and reach championship game in ACCT.
Lose to Carolina and not reach championship game in ACCT with help.

#3
Lose to Carolina and not make championship game in ACCT.

Good summary. A couple changes that are admittedly nit-picky.

I don't think we're officially guaranteed for a 1 seed if we win out. Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, and Ohio State all control their own destinies with respect to 1 seeds. I say I'm nitpicking because it is highly unlikely that both Missouri and Ohio State win out, and I suppose it's not impossible that the committee gives us the nod over win of these two teams anyway if all three of us win out. And this may be moot in two hours is Kansas beats Missouri. But the path is there.

On the flip side, assuming we don't lose to Wake, I don't think losing to UNC and early in the ACCT drops us to a 3 seed. Our resume is too good. But if other things happen, I guess it's possible. So I'd add "with help" there.

[throatybeard]

As long as we're talking about lousy conferences, don't forget the Pac-12.

[uh_no]

Actually it's a bit more. The Big East isn't that good as far I'm concerned. The Big 10 is beating on each other. The SEC is exceptionally weak. We actually beat the leader of the Big 12.

All that to say - what does it matter if the ACC is weak? A tough game is a tough game and they have them in every conference. Come tourney play I'm very happy with how Duke stacks up.

Yes but I'm failing to understand how citing which conferences have how many teams under 500 shows which conferences are weaker...especially when all of the conferences you cited have half their teams +-1 below 500...which is which is what you expect from any evenly distributed conference.

I agree with you that the big east isn't all that good...but i'm just unsure how the stats you provided support that hypothesis.