Originally Posted by
SilkyJ
You may have a point about "justifying their hype," but that's as much the media's fault for generating it, and your own fault for buying into the hype. Putting HB on a preseason All-AA team? That was silly. Kid was GREAT as a freshman, but no one deserves that much hype short of Lebron, so you should be smart enough to not buy into it.
A ridiculous claim. See below. The top 3 produces a ton of college studs.
Relatedly, Kedsy has broken down this data time and time again for when people think recruits will start at Duke and when they won't and the OVERHWELMING conclusion is there is a MARKED difference between a top 3-5 player and basically anyone else, at least in terms of players Duke recruits. The data below has similar themes.
Well I disagree, and the data supports me. Let's look at RSCI top 3 for past few years and you tell me these guys aren't studs. (BTW, only 2 of the guys you mention are top 3 guys: Jrue and Jennings, with Samardo being #4, so your subjective assertion that these other guys were "the most hyped" seems off-base.)
Class of 2011
1. Anthony Davis
2. Austin
3. Michael Gilchrist
No overhyping here. AD and MG will be top 5 picks and Austin is a likely lottery pick, All-ACC and ACC ROY, who was just the 1st freshman to lead Duke in scoring since 1986. Sounds like hype was about right.
Class of 2010
1. Harrison
T-2. Kyrie
T-2. Sullinger
You can quibble if you want, and claim that HB is overhyped, which I would even grant, but I would point you to my first paragraph above about buying into media hype.
Bottomline: these guys are all flatout college studs that would start on ANY team in the country, PERIOD, and will all be lottery picks. Kyrie was the #1 overall pick. Harrison was the leading scorer 2 years in a row on an elite 8 team both years and is a likely top 5 pick in the draft, certainly a lock for the top 10. Sullinger was the leading scorer and rebounder on a final four team and All-AA his Freshman and Sophomore years (HB was honorable mention both years).
(Quibble if you must about how HB didn't bring a championship to Franklin St, and seemed to not want to play inside...and there's obviously lots of ragging we can do on the kid for being so concerned with his "brand"...Sullinger would have been a top 5 or 3 pick last year and hurt his stock in the tournament this year, but again he's the top scorer and rebounder on a final four team, and 2 time 1st team AA. I think these guys are bonafide college studs.)
Class of 2009
1. Derrick Favors
2. John Wall
3. Demarcus Cousins
No overhyping here, these guys went 1,3,5 in the 2010 draft with Wall and Cousins being 1st team AA and Favors being ACC ROY. Sound like college studs to me.
Class of 2008
1. Brandon Jennings
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Tyreke Evans
- BJ did not play in college so n/a.
- Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
- Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
- You mentioned Samardo Samuels who was #4 on the RSCI -- he averaged 12 & 5 his freshman year, very good numbers, in a crowded frontcourt that included Earl Clark and Terrence Williams (averaging a combined 26 & 18/game), then led the team as a sophomore in rebounding and scoring. He went undrafted as he's undersized and not terribly athletic, but he was pretty darn good college player.
Class of 2007
1. OJ Mayo
2. Kevin Love
3. Eric Gordon
No over hyping here. All 3 were top 10 picks in the 08 draft and all were major studs for their teams.
So that's 2 potential guys out of 16: Jrue Holiday and Samardo Samuels that weren't studs, with Samuels being a very good player. I'd say the top 3 produces some winners.