Josh Hairston

[gumbomoop]

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side.

Personally, I think Miles and Mason will be looking at 20 to 23 minutes a game. Maybe a little more for Mason and a little less for Miles, but basically I expect them to combine for 40 to 45 mpg. So even if Kyle plays 10 mpg at the "4" (which I think may be a tad high but isn't an unreasonable estimate) there's still a good 25 to 30 minutes for Ryan and Josh to split. If Ryan takes 17 or 18 of those minutes, it leaves 8 to 12 for Josh pretty much all year.

Now, of course if Josh fails to play good defense, then I think you're right and his minutes will drop off. But since that's what he's already working on, I have hopes that he'll be able to maintain his 8 to 12 for most of the season.

As far as Ryan goes, I would be surprised if he gets as few as 15 minutes a game. I would not be surprised if he ends up with more minutes than Miles. Again it depends on if he can get his defense up to snuff but if he does I could see him getting 20+ minutes and Miles getting 17 or 18. Thus if Josh eats into anybody's minutes, I would see him taking Miles's minutes away, rather than Ryan's. Although obviously it's all guesswork at this point. If Miles takes a quantum leap forward like he did between his freshman and sophomore years, then he'll keep his minutes up all year. The good news is all these suppositions are based on the fact that we have an awful lot of good players on next year's roster.

No fair using facts.

I accept your correction and I like your argument, mostly. Yes, I can see that high 20s for both MPs must surely be unlikely. I will say that I tend to distinguish early- from late-season numbers; and on that count, I'd predict the MPs do get close to mid-20s-mpg as season wears on. Again, partly this will all season long depend on foul problems.

Your correction to my historical [not to say historic] amnesia then takes us back to the issue[s] at hand: mpg for JH, RK, and KS at the 4. I'll respond to your estimates in terms of my agreement/slight disagreement:

KS - I agree that KS will not play much 4, unless, as I posted above, both RK and JH aren't ready. In fact, whatever KS's overall season mpg at the 4, I'd predict that number will be inflated by his time there in late-game-protect-lead-situations, where he is better FT-shooter than either of MPs.

RK - Also agree, enthusiastically so, for I'm high on RK for breakout year. I don't recall any posters who think RK will get as many mpg as do you, and I. I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.

JH - Slight demurral here: because we have 4 guys who can/will play the 4 - MP2, RK, JS, JH - it seems JH is bottom of that list and a frosh with good potential but not KI-obvious skills. Given all that, I will be surprised to see him for more than 5 mpg by late-season. But he'll get his chances, esp if MPs remain foul-prone, if RK disappoints [you and me, at least], and/or if a now-militant KS says to K, "Hell no, I'm not playing the 4. You and I both know I came back to win it again as the nation's best SF." That Kyle: he may look like a choirboy, but once K created that secret mean-monster, well, now K's just gonna have to deal with the consequences.

[Hallucination over, back to reality] Agree, finally, that we got more good news than even We the Entitled could possibly deserve.

[roywhite]

RK - Also agree, enthusiastically so, for I'm high on RK for breakout year. I don't recall any posters who think RK will get as many mpg as do you, and I. I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.

A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

[olddevil]

I think we will be pleasantly surprised by Josh. He went to Montrose this year to learn how to be an inside player and he delivered. He has the potential to be quite strong and a good rebounder. He can't junp as high as the Plumlees but he has a good feeing for the inside game now. He already has perimeter skills and he just might fit well with our fast pace style next year.

[airowe]

He went to Montrose this year to learn how to be an inside player and he delivered.

Everything I've read, including quotes from Josh himself and Montrose's coach suggest that Josh transferred there to become more of an outside player.

[gumbomoop]

A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

Well, now I can see I'm about to convince myself that RK's got some big flaw. In my post above, which you reference in your tag quote, I worried just a little about RK's ability to keep up - on O - with KI's pace. I ignored getting back on D. I am comforted by the fact that few teams have a Henson-gazelle with which our guy will have to contend, pace-wise. But it is conceivable that a smarter-faster Henson will present a particular problem, 2 or more times next season.

Otherwise, "go Ryan!" And v. UNC, revised to, "Ryan, go!"

[whereinthehellami]

I like Josh Hairston. Great kid with good skills and decent size. But he lacks ACC level strength and speed. If he sees over 10 MPG in the frontcourt it will be because Duke has major problems down there. If I'm Josh I try to carve out my own role rather than try to fill Lance's. I don't think Josh has the foot speed to do what Lance did on defense. I think Josh has the potential to be more of a specialist on offense than on defense, kind of the opposite of Lance.

[Kedsy]

I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.

I agree I may be overly enthusiastic about Ryan. It all comes down to defense. If he can keep up and play good defense he will play a lot. If he can't then he won't. I'm not as worried about his ability to run the floor. On offense he can be part of the "secondary break." On defense, perhaps he's vulnerable to a team playing at a breakneck pace where all five (or at least four) players race down the floor after every rebound, but how many teams we face are going to be able to play that way? All Ryan has to do is keep up with the slowest guy on the other team and then be able to switch back once they get into the half court.

JH - Slight demurral here: because we have 4 guys who can/will play the 4 - MP2, RK, JS, JH - it seems JH is bottom of that list and a frosh with good potential but not KI-obvious skills. Given all that, I will be surprised to see him for more than 5 mpg by late-season. But he'll get his chances, esp if MPs remain foul-prone, if RK disappoints [you and me, at least]...

Well, we agree he's at the bottom of the list, but if I'm right about the MPs minutes and Kyle's minutes at the 4, and if you think I'm on the high side for Ryan, then Josh is the only person left to get those minutes. Again, if he can play decent D I think he's in line for at least 8 mpg, even toward the end of the year. Obviously if he can't or won't play decent defense then I agree with you. If K decides to shrink the rotation to 8 guys rather than 9, then Josh is the most likely candidate to be squeezed out.

[gumbomoop]

I agree I may be overly enthusiastic about Ryan. It all comes down to defense. If he can keep up and play good defense he will play a lot. If he can't then he won't. I'm not as worried about his ability to run the floor. On offense he can be part of the "secondary break." On defense, perhaps he's vulnerable to a team playing at a breakneck pace where all five (or at least four) players race down the floor after every rebound, but how many teams we face are going to be able to play that way? All Ryan has to do is keep up with the slowest guy on the other team and then be able to switch back once they get into the half court.

Well, we agree he's at the bottom of the list, but if I'm right about the MPs minutes and Kyle's minutes at the 4, and if you think I'm on the high side for Ryan, then Josh is the only person left to get those minutes. Again, if he can play decent D I think he's in line for at least 8 mpg, even toward the end of the year. Obviously if he can't or won't play decent defense then I agree with you. If K decides to shrink the rotation to 8 guys rather than 9, then Josh is the most likely candidate to be squeezed out.

Yes, we're on same page. As I seem to think too often about weird possibilities - maybe because K thinks about everything, everything - and because I assume Duke will have a fair number of protect-lead-end-games, I do wonder who will be the 5 guys on the floor last 2-3 minutes. If it were to be, literally, the 5 best FT shooters, that might be KS and 4 guards! But if K needs 2 Bigs out there, then it must be KS and the best FT shooter among the other 4 Bigs.

[Kedsy]

Yes, we're on same page. As I seem to think too often about weird possibilities - maybe because K thinks about everything, everything - and because I assume Duke will have a fair number of protect-lead-end-games, I do wonder who will be the 5 guys on the floor last 2-3 minutes. If it were to be, literally, the 5 best FT shooters, that might be KS and 4 guards! But if K needs 2 Bigs out there, then it must be KS and the best FT shooter among the other 4 Bigs.

Depends on the game situation, obviously, but what you're saying makes sense. If Andre can defend the "3" he's a perfect late-game guy because of his three-point and free throw prowess.

[fgb]

A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

ryan doesn't need to beat henson down court; he only needs to beat the ball. which as i understand it isn't going to be moving up the court too fast in chapel hill next season.

[airowe]

Not sure if you have read this yet:

http://usabasketball.com/news.php?ne...8_q_a_hairston

[Cockabeau]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

Are you jking? Lance had nice hops and above average lateral quickness for his size.

[billyj]

Yeah lance was a way better prospect (at least by ranking) coming out of high school. He's also probably one of the most athletic one on the team.

I'd be happy if Hairson is close to as good as Lance was.

[MChambers]

Not sure if you have read this yet:

http://usabasketball.com/news.php?ne...8_q_a_hairston

Josh sounds like a great kid, with lots of interests beyond basketball. And Greybeard will be ecstatic when he learns that Josh played soccer for 8 years.

[SilkyJ]

Are you jking? Lance had nice hops and above average lateral quickness for his size.

got it. so "nice" leaping ability and "above average" quickness = super-athletic. Man we are lucky to have you teaching us these things.

[Olympic Fan]

You don't think Babe Ruth was athletic? Wow. I obviously never saw him play, but from reading about him and looking at his stats I think he was amazingly athletic. He apparently didn't take care of his body very well, but that doesn't make him less athletic.

I obviously DO think he was an amazing athlete. I mentioned him to point out the absurdity of the way "athleticism" is used to describe somebody with quickness, speed or great hops (none of which were Ruthian attributes -- almost he did run fairly well when he was in shape).

[Kedsy]

Yeah lance was a way better prospect (at least by ranking) coming out of high school. He's also probably one of the most athletic one on the team.

I'd be happy if Hairson is close to as good as Lance was.

According to the RSCI (composite of several recruiting services), Lance was ranked #20 coming out of high school. Josh was ranked #27 in last summer's RSCI. The "final" RSCI rankings haven't been released yet but my guess is he'll have gone up a couple of notches. But even if he doesn't, I don't think the #20 prospect is "a way better prospect" than the #27 prospect.

I obviously DO think he was an amazing athlete. I mentioned him to point out the absurdity of the way "athleticism" is used to describe somebody with quickness, speed or great hops (none of which were Ruthian attributes -- almost he did run fairly well when he was in shape).

OK, good. Sorry I misunderstood you.

[hedevil]

I'm eager to see this kid develop over four years. I see him as being a better scoring threat than Lance was over a four year career at Duke. Defensively? We'll see.

I do agree that Josh needs to worry about being Josh, and forget about filling Lance's shoes. From what I've read about this kid, he seems to be making great strides in his game. To be really good you have to have potential, and this kid has it. If coach K can mold him for four years (I assume he's a four year guy), this kid has the potential to be really really good for Duke.

I don't feel this way about every player that we land, but I really feel like this kid could be that secret weapon that no one saw coming when he got to Duke. Just a gut feeling.

[SilkyJ]

I don't feel this way about every player that we land, but I really feel like this kid could be that secret weapon that no one saw coming when he got to Duke. Just a gut feeling.

Are you in any way involved with basketball professionally or semi-professionally, i.e. as a coach, analyst, writer, etc. and have you ever seen Josh play live?

[lotusland]

I think Kyle will play signifcant minutes at 4 next year due to the makeup of this years team. Faster generally means smaller and we have an abundance of tallented guards. Dre's needs to play 3 to get minutes if Seth and Kyrie live up to their billing. Nolan should get close to 30 mpg. Losing Felix helps Dre RK and Josh a little. Foul trouble or injuries for the MPs could be another facto but otherwise Josh and RK probably avg 7 mpg IMO.