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  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Right, but you forgot that some big guy is going to replace Miles's shots. There's going to be a third big guy playing more than Hairston did this past year. As such, I'd expect that guy to take some shots. There will also be about 2-3 shots per game from the 9th and 10th men.
    I really didn't forget. I gave Miles's shots to Mason, Ryan, and Alex. At the current time, I expect Josh and Marshall to split 10 or so minutes but not much more than that (i.e, to be the 9th and 10th men), with Mason and Ryan getting 30 minutes each, give or take, and Alex seeing 10 at PF and 10 at WF. Obviously I could be way off, and when the roster gets finalized I could think differently, but that's the thinking on which I based my shot distribution analysis.

  2. #62
    Cook has alot further to improve to be a starter than Thornton does. Cook will make a nice sub off the bench and I hope for alot more from him next year...but he's gotta improve a ton over the summer. I can certainly agree that Thornton is the weaker offensive player, but with Cook you could almost always count on scoring...just usually going the other direction. I mean seriously, I cringed when he was in the game. I can see why everyone was clamoring for him to start last off season, he was an incoming freshman which on this board usually means he's the best thing since sliced bread. I'm a little more confused this off season.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    Cook has alot further to improve to be a starter than Thornton does. Cook will make a nice sub off the bench and I hope for alot more from him next year...but he's gotta improve a ton over the summer. I can certainly agree that Thornton is the weaker offensive player, but with Cook you could almost always count on scoring...just usually going the other direction. I mean seriously, I cringed when he was in the game. I can see why everyone was clamoring for him to start last off season, he was an incoming freshman which on this board usually means he's the best thing since sliced bread. I'm a little more confused this off season.
    I expect Cook to show dramatic improvement, primarily because he will have an offseason to work on his game instead of rehabbing his knee. Also, you have overstated his defensive issues. Duke's ceiling is MUCH higher with Cook as primary pg than with Tyler bc of Quinn's superior ability to pass and create.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    Cook has alot further to improve to be a starter than Thornton does. Cook will make a nice sub off the bench and I hope for alot more from him next year...but he's gotta improve a ton over the summer. I can certainly agree that Thornton is the weaker offensive player, but with Cook you could almost always count on scoring...just usually going the other direction. I mean seriously, I cringed when he was in the game. I can see why everyone was clamoring for him to start last off season, he was an incoming freshman which on this board usually means he's the best thing since sliced bread. I'm a little more confused this off season.
    I agree that Cook is a liability defensively but I do think the tools are there to become at least average on defense. Remember, Cook was coming off a serious knee injury last year and that had to stifle his lateral quickness and reaction time on defense.

    Would you agree that Cook has shown a greater ability to create his own shot, pass the ball to teamates where they have an opportunity to score, and push the ball up-court than Tyler Thornton? What have you seen out of Tyler that leads you to believe he is much further along as the established starter at PG than Cook? I love Tyler's passion, communication skills and tenacity, but it seems to me Tyler Thorton is a SF trapped in a PG's body(think a 6'1" Dave McClure).

    EDIT: You beat me to it CajunDevil but I agree competely!

  5. #65
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    San Francisco

    Cook

    If he's so limited, why hasn't K recruited another point guard?

  6. #66
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    boston, ma
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You're missing my point. I didn't cherry pick games in which he shot well. I cherry-picked games in which he got a lot of shots. If you don't understand the difference, then there's no point discussing it, but assuming you do understand, my point is that Andre can be a big part of our offense without the ability to drive, so long as he works hard to get open and his teammates give him the ball when he gets open.

    And, yes, if Andre gets 10 to 12 shots most games I'd expect 15 to 18 ppg from him next season. If he gets 3 to 5 shots most games I'd expect about the same as we saw this season.
    This is clearly an oversimplification and as others have pointed out, Andre getting a lot of shots is not an independent factor but also strongly correlated to how well he is playing and making his shots. You're saying Andre can be a big part of the offense if he plays consistently well. Well I agree. But there's very little evidence from his first 3 years that he plays consistently well game in and game out.

    Can't believe you're excusing Andre's lack of a handle. Maybe if he could dribble, he would have more room to get his shots off, allowing him to get more shots a game. It's the biggest factor keeping him from breaking out. He could have been a less explosive Gerald with a much better shot. I mean, how many of us expected from his early entrance in 2009 to the present that his ball-handling would only marginally improve, especially when it was known by everyone to be his biggest weakness. Sure if Andre gets 10-12 shots a game, I'd also expect around 15 ppg, but that's a meaningless thing to say. You think K is going to let him take that many shots without producing?


    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Regarding Andre's defense:
    I disagree. You can already know how to do something and not do it well if you don't focus on it. That's different from learning.
    I think we're arguing over semantics here but bottom line is that the kid needs to get better on defense, whether it be learning/focusing whatever. As a senior, he should be at least solid on defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Regarding Seth:
    He took half his shots from three-point range; in that scenario, 42% overall is about normal for a guard.
    Your original statement was he's not "versatile" and doesn't deserve to start. I'm not sure how any of the above supports that.
    Exactly, 42% FG is about average for a guard that shoots almost half his shots from 3-pt range. I don't think a Duke starting SG should only be average or normal. As I said before, Seth is not a versatile guard because he is a: great shooter, okay passer, okay dribbler/driver, okay defender. Versatile by Duke standards means very good at multiple things. Think Kyle and Nolan, or Austin (penetration, shooting, defense) and Ryan (diverse offense, mismatch advantage, defense) on last year's team.

    You lauded Seth leading the team in assists as evidence of great passing ability. I observed that he only had 2.4 asts/game in 30 minutes/game on the worst-passing team in K's tenure since 1984. I forget the exact year but it's in the Chronicle article.
    You said he was a great player because he made 3rd-team All-ACC. I said, maybe so, but remember Greg Paulus made 3rd-team All-ACC.
    You pointed to Seth leading the team in steals as evidence of great defense. I reminded you of the general consensus on this board that steals are an overrated defensive stat. I would also remind you that Seth was hardly a defensive stalwart on this year's team, lacking lateral quickness to guard athletic guards along with the rest of our backcourt except for Austin.

    In addition, when guarded closely by athletic players, he becomes limited to spot-up shooting. At a small 6-2 and slight stature (not physically strong) and being a 5th year senior, I don't think Seth is up to the standard of starting Duke shooting guard and does not seem to have huge potential for improvement.

    Like I also said before, I think Seth is a very good player and extremely important to the team. Will most likely and deserve to start in the beginning, but it would be best for our team's ceiling if a better player emerges to start by mid-season whether it be Rasheed/Dre/some transfer.

    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    Cook has alot further to improve to be a starter than Thornton does. Cook will make a nice sub off the bench and I hope for alot more from him next year...but he's gotta improve a ton over the summer. I can certainly agree that Thornton is the weaker offensive player, but with Cook you could almost always count on scoring...just usually going the other direction. I mean seriously, I cringed when he was in the game. I can see why everyone was clamoring for him to start last off season, he was an incoming freshman which on this board usually means he's the best thing since sliced bread. I'm a little more confused this off season.
    Come on man. The kid was coming off a knee injury that he played on all throughout his senior year of high school, shut it down all summer to rehab, didn't play in China, and didn't start practicing with the team until early in the season.

    Give Quinn a chance to prove himself at full strength/good health before writing him off.

    We're excited about Quinn because we think he improved health will address many of his deficiencies from last year. And so we think he can be the playmaking PG we need for our shooters/big men and be okay enough on defense.

  8. #68
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    Nov 2010
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    Rochester, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post

    <snip some good stuff>

    Exactly, 42% FG is about average for a guard that shoots almost half his shots from 3-pt range. I don't think a Duke starting SG should only be average or normal. As I said before, Seth is not a versatile guard because he is a: great shooter, okay passer, okay dribbler/driver, okay defender. Versatile by Duke standards means very good at multiple things. Think Kyle and Nolan, or Austin (penetration, shooting, defense) and Ryan (diverse offense, mismatch advantage, defense) on last year's team.

    You lauded Seth leading the team in assists as evidence of great passing ability. I observed that he only had 2.4 asts/game in 30 minutes/game on the worst-passing team in K's tenure since 1984. I forget the exact year but it's in the Chronicle article.
    You said he was a great player because he made 3rd-team All-ACC. I said, maybe so, but remember Greg Paulus made 3rd-team All-ACC.
    You pointed to Seth leading the team in steals as evidence of great defense. I reminded you of the general consensus on this board that steals are an overrated defensive stat. I would also remind you that Seth was hardly a defensive stalwart on this year's team, lacking lateral quickness to guard athletic guards along with the rest of our backcourt except for Austin.

    In addition, when guarded closely by athletic players, he becomes limited to spot-up shooting. At a small 6-2 and slight stature (not physically strong) and being a 5th year senior, I don't think Seth is up to the standard of starting Duke shooting guard and does not seem to have huge potential for improvement.

    Like I also said before, I think Seth is a very good player and extremely important to the team. Will most likely and deserve to start in the beginning, but it would be best for our team's ceiling if a better player emerges to start by mid-season whether it be Rasheed/Dre/some transfer.

    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.
    Pretty reasonable stuff, particularly for 6:30 AM on a Sat morn. I will, for our amusement, disagree on the part suggesting Seth has pretty much reached his ceiling. He is indeed heading into a fifth year senior year and that sounds a little old and gnarly, but he is not yet 22 (will be on Aug 23, 2012) and his year at Liberty was not full bore high DI. Additionally, I thought I saw a lot of improvement in his ball handling and penetration from the 2010-11 season to the 2011-12 season (he was said to be working to be able to handle the PG spot). No real reason to figure he cannot take another step up there. He *did* seem to finish all right even among the trees, and again, as a new part of his game there is hope that can get better.

    His offensive contribution is not ordinary. A 50% eFG% playing against the best defenses in DI is good for a main scorer who also shoots FTs well. And, as a good 3 pt shooter, he was perhaps the main contributor to spreading the defense (freeing up the middle and inside game and helping Rivers and others penetrate ...)

    I am afraid I see his defense pretty much as you do, but I am an optimist (cockeyed?), I think it too will improve.

  9. #69
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.
    I tend to agree with this, UNLESS the following things happen:

    1. Curry makes even more improvements in his ballhandling and playmaking skills (he did make a jump in this area last year, but he still has a ways to go) so that we can play him at PG and not be undersized at all three perimeter positions.
    2. Dawkins improves his ballhandling and can score off the dribble.
    3. Dawkins and Curry both improve their defense.

    Otherwise, I share your concerns about these two guys sharing the floor together for long stretches.

    I think we're going to need at least one of Cook and Sulaimon to make a big impact next year to change the dynamics of the team, or Curry to make the jump next year in terms of ballhandling. I'd really prefer to see two strong ballhandlers/playmakers on the court most of the time, so Curry is a key guy in that regard (as I assume he'll play major minutes again).

  10. #70
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    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    This is clearly an oversimplification and as others have pointed out, Andre getting a lot of shots is not an independent factor but also strongly correlated to how well he is playing and making his shots. You're saying Andre can be a big part of the offense if he plays consistently well. Well I agree. But there's very little evidence from his first 3 years that he plays consistently well game in and game out.

    Can't believe you're excusing Andre's lack of a handle. Maybe if he could dribble, he would have more room to get his shots off, allowing him to get more shots a game. It's the biggest factor keeping him from breaking out. He could have been a less explosive Gerald with a much better shot. I mean, how many of us expected from his early entrance in 2009 to the present that his ball-handling would only marginally improve, especially when it was known by everyone to be his biggest weakness. Sure if Andre gets 10-12 shots a game, I'd also expect around 15 ppg, but that's a meaningless thing to say. You think K is going to let him take that many shots without producing?
    I agree completely that Andre getting a lot of shots depends on a bunch of other factors. I also agree that there is not the evidence that he will play well every game. But I believe that is college basketball. Players can and do get better over the summer and over the course of seasons and there is certainly the possibility that 20-21 year old student athletes can improve. Will Andre show more consistency defensively, moving without the ball and putting the ball on the floor to create other offensive opportunities and will the team move the ball well enough to take advantage of Andre's shooting? We don't know but, fortunately, Andre tends to take good shots and doesn't turn the ball over much while spreading the floor offensively, so he doesn't hurt the team there even if he is not able to get free for shots. I don't think I see the comparison with Gerald very well, as they are completely different players that both jump very well. I think K will let Andre take as many good shots as he can, the issue is how many good shots he can get and can he be effective defensively. I think we basically agree on most of that.

    I think we're arguing over semantics here but bottom line is that the kid needs to get better on defense, whether it be learning/focusing whatever. As a senior, he should be at least solid on defense.



    Exactly, 42% FG is about average for a guard that shoots almost half his shots from 3-pt range. I don't think a Duke starting SG should only be average or normal. As I said before, Seth is not a versatile guard because he is a: great shooter, okay passer, okay dribbler/driver, okay defender. Versatile by Duke standards means very good at multiple things. Think Kyle and Nolan, or Austin (penetration, shooting, defense) and Ryan (diverse offense, mismatch advantage, defense) on last year's team.

    You lauded Seth leading the team in assists as evidence of great passing ability. I observed that he only had 2.4 asts/game in 30 minutes/game on the worst-passing team in K's tenure since 1984. I forget the exact year but it's in the Chronicle article.
    You said he was a great player because he made 3rd-team All-ACC. I said, maybe so, but remember Greg Paulus made 3rd-team All-ACC.
    I also agree that Seth is not as good as Kyle and Nolan were and isn't as versatile as them, but I think you aren't giving Seth enough credit. By the end of the year, he was pretty good at creating his own shot, improved greatly going to the basket and earlier in the year showed that he could play effectively as the lead guard. I also thought he defended as well as anyone on the perimeter (may not be saying much) except for maybe Thornton's stretch at the end of the year.
    I don't know if Seth is a great player or not, but 3rd team all-ACC is nothing to sneeze at and it is nice to have an all-ACC player returning. He has certainly proven that he can play at a level of one of the best 15 players in the conference. I hope and expect he will continue to show improvement and be a very good player and senior leader for Duke next year.
    I was disappointed to see your comment that Greg Paulus making all-ACC is somehow demeaning of that recognition. In my opinion, Greg was a very good player at Duke, who had a solid career and a very disappointing senior season. Like the Lehigh loss, sometimes people remember the final game or stretch, without considering everything else.
    You pointed to Seth leading the team in steals as evidence of great defense. I reminded you of the general consensus on this board that steals are an overrated defensive stat. I would also remind you that Seth was hardly a defensive stalwart on this year's team, lacking lateral quickness to guard athletic guards along with the rest of our backcourt except for Austin.

    In addition, when guarded closely by athletic players, he becomes limited to spot-up shooting. At a small 6-2 and slight stature (not physically strong) and being a 5th year senior, I don't think Seth is up to the standard of starting Duke shooting guard and does not seem to have huge potential for improvement.

    Like I also said before, I think Seth is a very good player and extremely important to the team. Will most likely and deserve to start in the beginning, but it would be best for our team's ceiling if a better player emerges to start by mid-season whether it be Rasheed/Dre/some transfer.

    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.
    I agree that it would be nice if someone can outplay Seth and take over his position. I just don't think there will be enough all-ACC players on Duke's roster to force Seth out of a starting position. Rasheed has more potential, but I don't know if he will be out-playing Seth this coming year. I disagree that Seth can't dribble or handle ball pressure, as I thought he proved that last year. I also don't believe that Seth is a defensive liability, though he has not been a shut down player.
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    Come on man. The kid was coming off a knee injury that he played on all throughout his senior year of high school, shut it down all summer to rehab, didn't play in China, and didn't start practicing with the team until early in the season.

    Give Quinn a chance to prove himself at full strength/good health before writing him off.

    We're excited about Quinn because we think he improved health will address many of his deficiencies from last year. And so we think he can be the playmaking PG we need for our shooters/big men and be okay enough on defense.
    I just found it a bit ironic that immediately following your post giving all the reasons that Andre and Seth shouldn't be starters next year, that you were telling someone else to give Cook a chance. I did think you made a lot of good points, I just disagreed with some of them.

  11. #71
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    Jun 2010
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    Roxboro, NC

    Curry

    Something to remember regarding Curry is that this coming year will be his first opportunity as the lead guard. He was behind Nolan and then behind Rivers last year, yet still averaged 13+ ppg. He did improve in the offseason and I expect he will improve even more this offseason. He showed more versatility in his scoring this year. Being the lead guard will allow him to be more aggresive and I expect he will again be All-ACC.

  12. #72

    Good Points

    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    This is clearly an oversimplification and as others have pointed out, Andre getting a lot of shots is not an independent factor but also strongly correlated to how well he is playing and making his shots. You're saying Andre can be a big part of the offense if he plays consistently well. Well I agree. But there's very little evidence from his first 3 years that he plays consistently well game in and game out.

    Can't believe you're excusing Andre's lack of a handle. Maybe if he could dribble, he would have more room to get his shots off, allowing him to get more shots a game. It's the biggest factor keeping him from breaking out. He could have been a less explosive Gerald with a much better shot. I mean, how many of us expected from his early entrance in 2009 to the present that his ball-handling would only marginally improve, especially when it was known by everyone to be his biggest weakness. Sure if Andre gets 10-12 shots a game, I'd also expect around 15 ppg, but that's a meaningless thing to say. You think K is going to let him take that many shots without producing?



    I think we're arguing over semantics here but bottom line is that the kid needs to get better on defense, whether it be learning/focusing whatever. As a senior, he should be at least solid on defense.



    Exactly, 42% FG is about average for a guard that shoots almost half his shots from 3-pt range. I don't think a Duke starting SG should only be average or normal. As I said before, Seth is not a versatile guard because he is a: great shooter, okay passer, okay dribbler/driver, okay defender. Versatile by Duke standards means very good at multiple things. Think Kyle and Nolan, or Austin (penetration, shooting, defense) and Ryan (diverse offense, mismatch advantage, defense) on last year's team.

    You lauded Seth leading the team in assists as evidence of great passing ability. I observed that he only had 2.4 asts/game in 30 minutes/game on the worst-passing team in K's tenure since 1984. I forget the exact year but it's in the Chronicle article.
    You said he was a great player because he made 3rd-team All-ACC. I said, maybe so, but remember Greg Paulus made 3rd-team All-ACC.
    You pointed to Seth leading the team in steals as evidence of great defense. I reminded you of the general consensus on this board that steals are an overrated defensive stat. I would also remind you that Seth was hardly a defensive stalwart on this year's team, lacking lateral quickness to guard athletic guards along with the rest of our backcourt except for Austin.

    In addition, when guarded closely by athletic players, he becomes limited to spot-up shooting. At a small 6-2 and slight stature (not physically strong) and being a 5th year senior, I don't think Seth is up to the standard of starting Duke shooting guard and does not seem to have huge potential for improvement.

    Like I also said before, I think Seth is a very good player and extremely important to the team. Will most likely and deserve to start in the beginning, but it would be best for our team's ceiling if a better player emerges to start by mid-season whether it be Rasheed/Dre/some transfer.

    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.
    I think that either Tyler or Quinn as more likely to start at PG next season and probably share that duty. That puts one 6 foot guard on the floor all of the time. Seth is a possibility but didn't quite make the grade at that position last year and both Tyler and Quinn may experience more improvementby next season just because they are earlier in their careers.

    Putting Seth at SG incorporates a second small guard on the floor at the same time, leaving the team with the same defensive issues we experienced later in the season. Putting Andre at SG begs the question about his handle and ball security. Seth is superior in both those areas. Putting Andre at SF with the two smallish guards leaves us vulnerable to teams with quick or large back courts.

    We have this quandry as a result of past recruiting and the development rate of our players. Will the new recruits, former redshirts and those with little PT last year offer a solution? Will the coaches be willing to make hard choices if new players shine?

    Right now I see the team morphing toward Tyler/Quinn/Seth at PG, Seth/Rasheed/Andre at SG, Alex/Michael/Andre at SF. If we get Shabbaz then he will likely start right off.

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    You lauded Seth leading the team in assists as evidence of great passing ability...

    ...You said he was a great player because he made 3rd-team All-ACC...

    You pointed to Seth leading the team in steals as evidence of great defense...
    Actually, I never said he had great passing ability or great defense. Nor did I say he was a great player, although obviously a 3rd team All ACC player is pretty darn good. I mentioned the fact that he led the team in assists and steals and the fact that he made 3rd team All ACC as evidence of his versatility and as evidence that he deserves to start. Mentioning Greg Paulus and saying his assist totals weren't that good doesn't change the fact that they were better than any other returning player on Duke's team.


    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    In addition, when guarded closely by athletic players, he becomes limited to spot-up shooting. At a small 6-2 and slight stature (not physically strong) and being a 5th year senior, I don't think Seth is up to the standard of starting Duke shooting guard and does not seem to have huge potential for improvement.
    I agree that when Seth is guarded by taller, more athletic players he has problems getting his shot off and seeing the passing lanes. I don't agree that he's not "up to the standard of starting" nor that he doesn't have potential for improvement.

    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    I would be fine if EITHER Seth or Andre start at SG, but I strongly believe that having both of them on the floor together for significant periods of time would make our team very vulnerable. You would have two guys who can only shoot, can't really dribble/handle ball pressure, and are defensive liabilities in the backcourt.
    As far as whether Seth and Andre should be on the court together, I think it depends on who else is on the court. There are combinations with the two of them playing that I think would work, and other combinations that would be more problematic.

  14. #74
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    boston, ma
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    I just found it a bit ironic that immediately following your post giving all the reasons that Andre and Seth shouldn't be starters next year, that you were telling someone else to give Cook a chance. I did think you made a lot of good points, I just disagreed with some of them.
    How is this ironic? Quinn Cook is a freshman only a few months removed from full knee rehab after playing on a torn meniscus his entire senior year of HS. Had to shut it down all last summer to heal and didn't even start practicing with the team until after the season started. He's only been playing Duke basketball for a few months.

    Seth will be a 5th year senior.
    Andre will be a 4th year senior.

    The contrast is HUGE.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    How is this ironic? Quinn Cook is a freshman only a few months removed from full knee rehab after playing on a torn meniscus his entire senior year of HS. Had to shut it down all last summer to heal and didn't even start practicing with the team until after the season started. He's only been playing Duke basketball for a few months.

    Seth will be a 5th year senior.
    Andre will be a 4th year senior.

    The contrast is HUGE.
    I always thought being a senior is a good thing. You seem to think it means they should be discarded. Even accepting your assumption (for the sake of argument) that they won't improve as much as younger players, so what? Lack of upside only matters if you're not good already.

  16. #76
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    boston, ma
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I always thought being a senior is a good thing. You seem to think it means they should be discarded. Even accepting your assumption (for the sake of argument) that they won't improve as much as younger players, so what? Lack of upside only matters if you're not good already.
    Nope, wrong again. Those statements were in response to someone saying we've already seen the best of Quinn. I replied that looking at his freshmen season, we haven't yet seen him at full health, and that we've seen him play with much less preparation and practice time with the team than freshman typically get. He was essentially playing the freshman year with a handicap. Therefore, it is too soon to judge his performance and say he's not the answer at PG

    The point was giving Quinn a fair chance, not "discarding seniors." A misinterpretation.

    Playing good basketball is a good thing. Seniors are correlated with playing good basketball but are not necessarily causative nor sufficient.

    As rising seniors, we've already seen years of Andre and Seth perform, and so we can form judgments about them and extrapolate predictions for next year. We can't do that accurately with Quinn yet.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    Same with Seth, the guy is a 5th year senior, and expecting him to make a jump to versatile SG doesn't seem likely.
    OK, I went back 15 years, looking at every rotation player (or starter) at Duke who had a senior year and compared their senior season to their junior season, to see if seniors generally improve or stay more or less the same. I compared per game statistics and then made a qualitative analysis. So if a senior played a lot more minutes then he will look good in this chart, but that's sort of what we're talking about here so it made sense to me.

    I may have missed somebody, but I counted 26 Duke seniors from 1998 to 2012:

    Senior year a lot worse than junior year: 4 (Greg Paulus, Nick Horvath, Lee Melchionni, Ricky Price)

    Senior year a little worse than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 2 (Kyle Singler, Steve Wojciechowski)

    Senior year a little better than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 5 (DeMarcus Nelson, Chris Duhon, Sean Dockery, Taymon Domzalski, Nate James)

    Senior year a LOT better than junior year: 15 (Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, Dave McLure, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, Shane Battier, Chris Carrawell, Trajan Langdon, Roshown McLeod)


    Obviously some of this is subjective, but I conclude that there's a pretty good chance that our seniors next season make a "jump" and will put up significantly better numbers than they did this season.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    OK, I went back 15 years, looking at every rotation player (or starter) at Duke who had a senior year and compared their senior season to their junior season, to see if seniors generally improve or stay more or less the same. I compared per game statistics and then made a qualitative analysis. So if a senior played a lot more minutes then he will look good in this chart, but that's sort of what we're talking about here so it made sense to me.

    I may have missed somebody, but I counted 26 Duke seniors from 1998 to 2012:

    Senior year a lot worse than junior year: 4 (Greg Paulus, Nick Horvath, Lee Melchionni, Ricky Price)

    Senior year a little worse than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 2 (Kyle Singler, Steve Wojciechowski)

    Senior year a little better than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 5 (DeMarcus Nelson, Chris Duhon, Sean Dockery, Taymon Domzalski, Nate James)

    Senior year a LOT better than junior year: 15 (Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, Dave McLure, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, Shane Battier, Chris Carrawell, Trajan Langdon, Roshown McLeod)


    Obviously some of this is subjective, but I conclude that there's a pretty good chance that our seniors next season make a "jump" and will put up significantly better numbers than they did this season.
    Great list! Someone should show that to Mason Plumlee.

  19. #79
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    OK, I went back 15 years, looking at every rotation player (or starter) at Duke who had a senior year and compared their senior season to their junior season, to see if seniors generally improve or stay more or less the same. I compared per game statistics and then made a qualitative analysis. So if a senior played a lot more minutes then he will look good in this chart, but that's sort of what we're talking about here so it made sense to me.

    I may have missed somebody, but I counted 26 Duke seniors from 1998 to 2012:

    Senior year a lot worse than junior year: 4 (Greg Paulus, Nick Horvath, Lee Melchionni, Ricky Price)

    Senior year a little worse than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 2 (Kyle Singler, Steve Wojciechowski)

    Senior year a little better than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 5 (DeMarcus Nelson, Chris Duhon, Sean Dockery, Taymon Domzalski, Nate James)

    Senior year a LOT better than junior year: 15 (Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, Dave McLure, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, Shane Battier, Chris Carrawell, Trajan Langdon, Roshown McLeod)


    Obviously some of this is subjective, but I conclude that there's a pretty good chance that our seniors next season make a "jump" and will put up significantly better numbers than they did this season.
    Of course our seniors will improve, but I question the probability of them making the JUMP and demonstrating skills they haven't had before such as Andre developing a handle when that has surely been an emphasis for him the last 3 seasons or overcoming certain combinations of limitations such as Seth being a physically weak 6-2 guard without great athleticism and having an okay handle. Sure it could happen, and I hope it happens, but I'm not holding my breath.

    Also, some of the players you list as being a LOT better are suspect. Like Dave McClure making the jump from 1 ppg to 1.9 ppg in double the minutes. Miles going from 4.8 ppg to 6.6 ppg in slightly more minutes. Lance actually dropped from 5.3 to 4.8 ppg while rebounding went up 3.6 to 4.8 rpg with a significant increase in minutes. Even I would say Nolan made the biggest jump between his sophomore and junior years, and not so much between his JR and SR years.

    So I don't think it's as common as you try to make it seem, but I hope it happens to all 4 (hopefully 4) of our rising seniors.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by duke09hms View Post
    Also, some of the players you list as being a LOT better are suspect. Like Dave McClure making the jump from 1 ppg to 1.9 ppg in double the minutes. Miles going from 4.8 ppg to 6.6 ppg in slightly more minutes. Lance actually dropped from 5.3 to 4.8 ppg while rebounding went up 3.6 to 4.8 rpg with a significant increase in minutes. Even I would say Nolan made the biggest jump between his sophomore and junior years, and not so much between his JR and SR years.
    Well, McClure's rebounding and assists also doubled and, as I said earlier, for our purposes it's not necessarily a counter-argument that a player's minutes went up because some people are arguing that Seth's and Andre's minutes will go down. Also, having seen both senior years recently, I think it's really hard to argue against the statement that Lance and Miles both significantly improved from their junior season to their senior season.

    Nolan's numbers went from 17.4/2.8/3.0 as a junior to 20.6/4.5/5.1 as a senior. His sophomore to junior jump was big too, but that's a pretty huge junior to senior jump, at least that's the way I see it. Obviously this is a pretty subjective topic, so feel free to disagree.

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