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  1. #221
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    So is there any word about when Amile will make his decision. I have seen unsubstantiated tweets that he would announce today but I'm not aware of any official statements on that.

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    'understand the (legit) point Tommy. But AJ does have a bit more size than Mike G does, and that almost HAS to help on the D end of the court. Also, I've not heard that AJ is a poor defender (have you?). Honest question.

    But my point had less to do with the reality on the floor in 6 months and more to do with the situation as perceived in the mind of a talented 17-year-old high schooler from PA over the next couple weeks of his recruitment. And since he supposedly delayed his decision in order to get a better handle on where the playing time would be after all of the NBA and transfer dust cleared, then these changes would seem to argue favorably to that end -- IF that was truly the reason for the delay...

    I think the bolded text is debatable on a couple of fronts:

    1. Jefferson doesn't really have more size than Gbinije. Jefferson is 6'7", 190 lbs (per ESPN). Gbinije is 6'7", 205 (per ESPN). At the very most, I'd say Jefferson might be an inch taller. But Gbinije is definitely bigger and stronger.

    2. Even if Jefferson does have a bit more size, I don't think that's evidence that it will help at the defensive end. Jefferson is a PF in a SF body. So if we're discussing his ability to play the SF spot, the questions are going to be whether he can defend quicker players on the perimeter - not whether he's big enough. I don't know whether or not he'll have the quickness to handle the SF position defensively, but I don't think size was an issue for him (or Gbinije) at the SF spot.

    Your second point is accurate IF Jefferson sees himself as a SF and not the PF that he's played in high school. If that's the case, then the Gbinije transfer and apparent news regarding a possible redshirt for Dawkins would certainly open up playing time at SF (since we now have only one of those on the roster, and he's never played an official game at Duke).

  3. #223
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    Nov 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    So is there any word about when Amile will make his decision. I have seen unsubstantiated tweets that he would announce today but I'm not aware of any official statements on that.
    Per Airowe

    Adam Rowe @DukeHoopBlog

    @YieldToFrump @DukeReport @TobaccoRdBlues I have not been able to confirm Amile Jefferson is making an announcement today with anyone.

  4. #224
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    Durham

    Perhaps Next Week

    Makes sense for Amile to wait until after Tony announces I suppose.

    Clint Jackson ‏ @clintjackson1
    No Amile Jefferson announcement this week. Maybe next week. Twittering from my car -- this is dangerous.

  5. #225
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    Makes sense for Amile to wait until after Tony announces I suppose.

    Clint Jackson ‏ @clintjackson1
    No Amile Jefferson announcement this week. Maybe next week. Twittering from my car -- this is dangerous.
    I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

    I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.

  6. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

    I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.
    But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

    I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.
    Perhaps he wants to play with TP. Perhaps TP coming to Durham would otherwise clarify how Duke might use Amile, etc. I agree that there isn't an obvious linkage between TP's decision and Amile's overall, but if I were Amile and another domino was going to fall Monday, why not wait until the new week and a fresh media cycle to announce.

  8. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.
    True, but in either situation he's looking at getting major minutes in 13-14, anyway, not this upcoming season. Mason and Ryan are gone next year no matter what. There will be playing time available if he can earn it. Meanwhile at UK there's no doubt that Cal will be going after a number of 1 and done recruits for the following season. It's true that Duke could land a stud post player, as well, but I'd say the odds are against Duke landing as many 1 and dones in the post over the next few years as UK. Amile will compete with Josh at the PF spot and can easily share the court with Alex as having both of them on at the same time would give Duke a similar versatility to the Kyle/Lance pairing at SF and PF, regardless of what happens with TP. I see neirther Duke nor UK giving Amile guaranteed playing time right over the next couple years, but I definitely don't think that Duke's situation is any worse than UK's. In fact, given Cal's track record of bringing in 4-5 stud frosh at once, Duke's situation might even be better.

  9. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.
    I think you're looking at the wrong 80-minute allotment, though. Jefferson is looking at minutes the 4 or 3 position, not the 4-5. Parker will be looking for minutes at the 5. The two do not overlap. We have 3 guys at the 3 and 4 position (Kelly, Hairston, Murphy) and 2 guys at the 5 position (the Plumlees). Parker's decision would affect Marshall, but would not affect the minutes available at the 4 spot (because neither Plumlee was going to play PF next year). So Parker's decision does not affect Jefferson.

    Conversely, there are 80 minutes at the 3 and 4 spots. Kentucky currently has 2 guys playing those spots, and both would likely play ahead of Jefferson. But there would (currently) be plenty of minutes available for him there. But they are recruiting another PF (Bennett) and SG/SF (Pollard) who would play ahead of Jefferson. By comparison, we have only 3 guys at the 3/4 spots, and it's possible that Jefferson could beat out Murphy or Hairston for minutes. As such, it would seem that the decisions most relevant to Jefferson are those of Bennett and Pollard - not Parker.

  10. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    Perhaps he wants to play with TP. Perhaps TP coming to Durham would otherwise clarify how Duke might use Amile, etc. I agree that there isn't an obvious linkage between TP's decision and Amile's overall, but if I were Amile and another domino was going to fall Monday, why not wait until the new week and a fresh media cycle to announce.
    I totally agree that it makes sense to wait for more dominoes to fall. I just think those dominoes are more likely to be Bennett and Pollard than Parker.

  11. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I totally agree that it makes sense to wait for more dominoes to fall. I just think those dominoes are more likely to be Bennett and Pollard than Parker.
    Well, given Bennett's snail's pace, we may be waiting quite a bit longer. Alas...

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    Well, given Bennett's snail's pace, we may be waiting quite a bit longer. Alas...
    Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.

  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.

    It's almost May...

    I don't think we here a decision from Bennett or Pollard in the next month, that's just my guess.

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think you're looking at the wrong 80-minute allotment, though. Jefferson is looking at minutes the 4 or 3 position, not the 4-5. Parker will be looking for minutes at the 5. The two do not overlap. We have 3 guys at the 3 and 4 position (Kelly, Hairston, Murphy) and 2 guys at the 5 position (the Plumlees). Parker's decision would affect Marshall, but would not affect the minutes available at the 4 spot (because neither Plumlee was going to play PF next year). So Parker's decision does not affect Jefferson.

    Conversely, there are 80 minutes at the 3 and 4 spots. Kentucky currently has 2 guys playing those spots, and both would likely play ahead of Jefferson. But there would (currently) be plenty of minutes available for him there. But they are recruiting another PF (Bennett) and SG/SF (Pollard) who would play ahead of Jefferson. By comparison, we have only 3 guys at the 3/4 spots, and it's possible that Jefferson could beat out Murphy or Hairston for minutes. As such, it would seem that the decisions most relevant to Jefferson are those of Bennett and Pollard - not Parker.
    If Mason were to play alongside Parker, then Mason would cut into the minutes at the 4.

    The point that Amile would get big minutes in the 2013-2014 season is true. Ryan and Mason will be leaving and that's about 60 minutes per game opening up. This coming season may be tight though.

  15. #235
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.
    As I said previously in this thread, I know plenty of kids who didn't make college choices until May or June or even July of senior year. It happens. In fact, as of April 20, I'd say the majority of college-bound kids still aren't sure where they are going (conjecture without facts, very effective).

  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    If Mason were to play alongside Parker, then Mason would cut into the minutes at the 4.

    The point that Amile would get big minutes in the 2013-2014 season is true. Ryan and Mason will be leaving and that's about 60 minutes per game opening up. This coming season may be tight though.
    I don't think that Mason would play alongside Parker, so I don't see him cutting into minutes at PF. That'd be a really bad defensive pairing (Mason is good at defending C, not so much against PF, and Parker is going to be a defensive liability). So as of now, I'd say Jefferson would have the opportunity to get up to 15-20 mpg at SF (depending upon Dawkins' situation) and up to 10-15 mpg at PF. Now I doubt he'll be nearly ready for that many minutes, but those minutes are potentially available.

    I agree that he's going to have a challenge finding minutes next year. But I doubt he'd play more than 10-15 mpg at any major school next year (based on his frame and style of play). But I don't see Parker's decision affecting his available minutes very much. Not nearly as much as Bennett's and Pollard's decisions would.

  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    As I said previously in this thread, I know plenty of kids who didn't make college choices until May or June or even July of senior year. It happens. In fact, as of April 20, I'd say the majority of college-bound kids still aren't sure where they are going (conjecture without facts, very effective).
    Good point. IIRC, accepted students usually have until May 1 to send in their deposit at selective colleges, and things can go much longer at less selective schools. It's only in the minds of the thousands of total strangers who are desperate to know what a handful of athletes decide that this seems like an abnormally late time to be choosing a college.

  18. #238
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    Raleigh, NC
    T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

    Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

    Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

    Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

    Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

    But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.

  19. #239
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

    Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

    Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

    Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

    Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

    Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

    Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

    But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.
    Without seeing MP3, Parker or Jefferson, I would guess that MP3 would be first big off the bench as he has had a year to acclimate to the system.

  20. #240
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    Without seeing MP3, Parker or Jefferson, I would guess that MP3 would be first big off the bench as he has had a year to acclimate to the system.
    Yea, I am kind of confused by the lack of talk about MP3. Are the expectations that even after a year in the system he is not really going to be much of a factor?

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