The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

[A-Tex Devil]

Latest scuttlebutt....

SEC is trying to avoid a situation where they are dragged into a tortious interference or similar claim with the Aggies/Big XII/Fox/ESPN

To attempt to get around this, Aggies will withdraw from Big XII, citing lack of payment and failure of other parties to meet obligations of BIg XII agreement. They would then apply for membership to ALL BCS conferences and the SEC would accept them.

Apparently this helps mitigate lawsuit concerns. I am not sure.

I, personally, still think it all hinges on getting a 14th team and the SEC doesn't want to pull trigger until that is nailed down.

[Jarhead]

Latest scuttlebutt....

SEC is trying to avoid a situation where they are dragged into a tortious interference or similar claim with the Aggies/Big XII/Fox/ESPN

To attempt to get around this, Aggies will withdraw from Big XII, citing lack of payment and failure of other parties to meet obligations of BIg XII agreement. They would then apply for membership to ALL BCS conferences and the SEC would accept them.

Apparently this helps mitigate lawsuit concerns. I am not sure.

I, personally, still think it all hinges on getting a 14th team and the SEC doesn't want to pull trigger until that is nailed down.

Scuttlebutt is just that, scuttlebutt. In other words, a rumor. What I'd like to hear right now is a brand new Aggie joke. Anybody heard one today?

[A-Tex Devil]

Scuttlebutt is just that, scuttlebutt. In other words, a rumor. What I'd like to hear right now is a brand new Aggie joke. Anybody heard one today?

Wasn't this last week the epitome of one with today being the punchline?

[Jarhead]

Wasn't this last week the epitome of one with today being the punchline?

Maybe so. A lot of people must be laughing, but some Aggies think they have just created their own conference.

[Atlanta Duke]

Latest scuttlebutt....

SEC is trying to avoid a situation where they are dragged into a tortious interference or similar claim with the Aggies/Big XII/Fox/ESPN

That is how Andy Staples of SI.com sees it

If we can make more money from our TV contracts, we're probably going to expand. But no one has applied for membership yet. So we didn't vote today. If we had voted to extend an offer to a school that hadn't applied for membership, we might have left ourselves exposed to a big, fat lawsuit. So don't sue us, Big 12. If someone, perhaps a land-grant institution based in College Station, Texas, happens to authorize its president to seek new conference membership -- maybe at a special Board of Regents meeting Monday afternoon -- and that president happens to ask us to consider his school for membership, than we might strongly consider that school.

The last line of his column sums it up

Marc Isenberg, an author who follows the business of college sports, tweeted it best Sunday afternoon. "Another day in college sports," Isenberg wrote, "another victory for billable hours."


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...2_a4&eref=sihp

[ForkFondler]

Scuttlebutt is just that, scuttlebutt. In other words, a rumor. What I'd like to hear right now is a brand new Aggie joke. Anybody heard one today?

This one needs to be moved to the longhorn joke list:

An Aggie and a Longhorn are in hell. The Longhorn is chained to an ugly old woman and the Aggie is chained to Pamela Anderson. The devil comes in and tells the two unfortunate souls that they will be in this situation for eternity. The Longhorn asks the devil why he is chained to the ugly old woman. The devil replies, "this is your punishment for being so mean to all those Aggies over the years." The Longhorn then asks, " if this is hell, why does the Aggie get to be chained to Pamela Anderson"?
To which the devil replies, "That's Pamela Anderson's punishment"!

[diveonthefloor]

The one lesson we should all learn from all of this is a reminder that quoting Doug Gottlieb as a source makes as much sense as quoting an anonymous message board post as a source.

Sort of like asking Doug to talk to grade schoolers about the 8th commandment.

[JasonEvans]

So, I was just listening to an interview with Mark Schlabaugh of ESPN on the radio. He said he expected the SEC to expand at some point in the not too distant future and he said they would probably want to go to 16, not 14. He said an SEC President he had spoken to said FSU and Clemson would probably not be a part of the expansion because neither of them improve the TV footprint for the league, even though they both bring good football programs to the table. He said more likely candidates were Oklahoma (and/or Okie St), Va Tech, Mizzu, and UNC. He commented that UNC has been acting like an SEC school for a few years now so they might not have a problem moving to the more ethically challenged SEC.

He then said he thought there was a decent chance the triangle schools would have to break apart at some point. He did not get into specifics, but the implication was that UNC and/or maybe NC State would go elsewhere, leaving Duke behind. He said that unless the ACC did something to strengthen itself, it could be in trouble -- though not quite as bad as the way the Big 12 and Big East are in trouble. He said conventional wisdom was that the conference shakeout would end with 4 super-conferences of 16 teams each (Pac, Big, SEC, and ACC) but that he was not so sure it wouldn't be just 3 super-conferences (minus the ACC).

-Jason "if they could form 'football only' conferences, I could see Carolina bolting" Evans

[monkey]

He then said he thought there was a decent chance the triangle schools would have to break apart at some point. He did not get into specifics, but the implication was that UNC and/or maybe NC State would go elsewhere, leaving Duke behind. He said that unless the ACC did something to strengthen itself, it could be in trouble -- though not quite as bad as the way the Big 12 and Big East are in trouble. He said conventional wisdom was that the conference shakeout would end with 4 super-conferences of 16 teams each (Pac, Big, SEC, and ACC) but that he was not so sure it wouldn't be just 3 super-conferences (minus the ACC).

-Jason "if they could form 'football only' conferences, I could see Carolina bolting" Evans

IMO, there's just no way the North Carolina state legislature allows NC State and UNC to be in separate conferences, to me, the "or" portion of that seems completely untenable. I also just cannot see UNC breaking away from Duke because of basketball. Actually, given that all of the schools are founding members of the ACC, a break to join up with the SEC seems like a very, very low probability.

With respect to Va. Tech, after all the heavy lifting purportedly done to put them into the ACC when expansion came around last time (not that long ago), would the Virginia state politicians turn around and eagerly have Va Tech dump UVA and join an SEC "super conference", which would then damage the ACC (and hence Virginia, which is still the primary state university)? I just don't see that either, unless the SEC is willing to take on UVa as well, which I've never heard mentioned (don't know what the local appetite for that would be).

[throatybeard]

IMO, there's just no way the North Carolina state legislature allows NC State and UNC to be in separate conferences, to me, the "or" portion of that seems completely untenable. I also just cannot see UNC breaking away from Duke because of basketball. Actually, given that all of the schools are founding members of the ACC, a break to join up with the SEC seems like a very, very low probability.

With respect to Va. Tech, after all the heavy lifting purportedly done to put them into the ACC when expansion came around last time (not that long ago), would the Virginia state politicians turn around and eagerly have Va Tech dump UVA and join an SEC "super conference", which would then damage the ACC (and hence Virginia, which is still the primary state university)? I just don't see that either, unless the SEC is willing to take on UVa as well, which I've never heard mentioned (don't know what the local appetite for that would be).

Yeah. As this article points out, there's a problem with just about everybody.

FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Louisville all have SEC rivals who wouldn't want them at the cool kids' table. Virginia Tech is beholden to the legislature that tossed them a life preserver in 2003. And the present difficulty with A&M is that an eastern team is needed to balance them, because they don't won't to move say Auburn to the east.

I have a really difficult time seeing Missouri in the SEC. The afternoon guys on 101 here had Vahe Gregorian on today. I think he's the Mizzou beat writer for the Post-Dispatch. He basically said he didn't know of any credible source that said Missouri or Slive's office had even talked to each other.

I don't really know what Missouri offers the SEC that they couldn't get from say OU in a big plundering of the Big XII. YEah, you get the StL and KC markets. And a football team that's the best it's been in four dacades...and still has never won the Big XII. If I had to guess, their best bet is to hope that they get into a Big Ten Sixteen. They past the AAU membership test.

[OldPhiKap]

Yeah. As this article points out, there's a problem with just about everybody.

FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Louisville all have SEC rivals who wouldn't want them at the cool kids' table. Virginia Tech is beholden to the legislature that tossed them a life preserver in 2003. And the present difficulty with A&M is that an eastern team is needed to balance them, because they don't won't to move say Auburn to the east.

I have a really difficult time seeing Missouri in the SEC. The afternoon guys on 101 here had Vahe Gregorian on today. I think he's the Mizzou beat writer for the Post-Dispatch. He basically said he didn't know of any credible source that said Missouri or Slive's office had even talked to each other.

I don't really know what Missouri offers the SEC that they couldn't get from say OU in a big plundering of the Big XII. YEah, you get the StL and KC markets. And a football team that's the best it's been in four dacades...and still has never won the Big XII. If I had to guess, their best bet is to hope that they get into a Big Ten Sixteen. They past the AAU membership test.

Maryland makes the most sense, in that it gives them the DC market. Hope it's not so.

[throatybeard]

Maryland makes the most sense, in that it gives them the DC market. Hope it's not so.

I don't dispute what you're saying, but really, how salivating a property is Maryland?

SEC wouldn't want them. Yankees way up there, as it were. (I'm not saying that's so, but the regional identity of the SEC is strong). Basketball is...well really awesome a decade ago. Football, well, is really awesome a decade ago and in the 1980s. They don't fill a huge football stadium. And DC is another place like NY or Boston that is a pro sports town. Which predator will take our dear little turtles from us? Big East? No, that's a move down, at least at present. They just stole UConn's FB coach. So does the Big math-challenged Midwestern Conference want them in a 16-team layout. Um, maybe? I guess? But there are only four slots in that armageddeon. Why does Maryland come before Pitt, SU, UConn, Mizzou, UL, in that calculus. I don't know. Maybe they do. There are a lot of TV sets in DC and Baltimore.

[loldevilz]

The more I think about it, NC State seems to me like the best option. NC State seems to me an SEC type school. It is football centric with a rabid fan base. It is good for the SEC as it helps the SEC expand north and it gives NC State a recruiting advantage over Duke and North Carolina, similar to the advantage of South Carolina over Clemson. It also helps the ACC overcome the notion that it is too NC-centric. If that happens then maybe the ACC could expand north to get Rutgers, UCONN, and Syracuse.

[Bluealum]

The more I think about it, NC State seems to me like the best option. NC State seems to me an SEC type school. It is football centric with a rabid fan base. It is good for the SEC as it helps the SEC expand north and it gives NC State a recruiting advantage over Duke and North Carolina, similar to the advantage of South Carolina over Clemson. It also helps the ACC overcome the notion that it is too NC-centric. If that happens then maybe the ACC could expand north to get Rutgers, UCONN, and Syracuse.

Losing NC State is a very tough sell for the old ACC crowd. This is my way of looking at the ACC (worth nothing of course, but I suspect I am not alone...)

ACC and reasons we want the school...

UVa, Duke, Wake, UNC, Ga Tech for reasons of history, geography and academics
NC State and Clemson for reasons of history and geography

Maryland for history
BC for academics
VT for geography

Florida St. ?
Miami ?

Of course money factors in heavily in all of this, but doesn't affect a purists view of the ACC. My take. I would hate to lose any of the 1st five for any reason. I would definitely not like to lose the next two. The following three would be disappointing for a single reason... and the Florida schools...not so much as a tear drop would be shed...but who would take Miami now??

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Maryland for history
BC for academics
VT for geography

Florida St. ?
Miami ?

I would say that you are short-changing BC geography and Miami/FSU geography. Both open up huge markets for the ACC. On the other hand, I'm not sure what VT adds to the ACC geographic footprint. Additionally, I'd like to think that history counts for something, but I'm not certain that it does. If Clemson left, who would really weep? I would say that ACC priorities are likely in tiers:

Top Tier (dramatic change to conference identity)
Duke
UNC
UVa

Next Tier (Please don't go - you mean a lot to the conference)
NCSU
Wake
GaTech
BC

Third Tier (We'd rather you didn't, but if you must)
VaTech
Maryland

Fourth Tier (What's the phone number for Vandy and Syracuse?)
FSU or Miami
Clemson

Having said this, I think Miami might be persona non grata these days and might make this sort of thing easier. However, where would we schlep them off? Conf USA? I just doubt we'd rather not lose the state of FL...

[Indoor66]

I would say that you are short-changing BC geography and Miami/FSU geography. Both open up huge markets for the ACC. On the other hand, I'm not sure what VT adds to the ACC geographic footprint. Additionally, I'd like to think that history counts for something, but I'm not certain that it does. If Clemson left, who would really weep? I would say that ACC priorities are likely in tiers:

Top Tier (dramatic change to conference identity)
Duke
UNC
UVa

Next Tier (Please don't go - you mean a lot to the conference)
NCSU
Wake
GaTech
BC

Third Tier (We'd rather you didn't, but if you must)
VaTech
Maryland

Fourth Tier (What's the phone number for Vandy and Syracuse?)
FSU or Miami
Clemson

Having said this, I think Miami might be persona non grata these days and might make this sort of thing easier. However, where would we schlep them off? Conf USA? I just doubt we'd rather not lose the state of FL...

Miami may be looking back a the SMU penalties and ask why they couldn't get the same rather than what they get.

[arnie]

I would say that you are short-changing BC geography and Miami/FSU geography. Both open up huge markets for the ACC. On the other hand, I'm not sure what VT adds to the ACC geographic footprint. Additionally, I'd like to think that history counts for something, but I'm not certain that it does. If Clemson left, who would really weep? I would say that ACC priorities are likely in tiers:

Top Tier (dramatic change to conference identity)
Duke
UNC
UVa

Next Tier (Please don't go - you mean a lot to the conference)
NCSU
Wake
GaTech
BC

Third Tier (We'd rather you didn't, but if you must)
VaTech
Maryland

Fourth Tier (What's the phone number for Vandy and Syracuse?)
FSU or Miami
Clemson

Having said this, I think Miami might be persona non grata these days and might make this sort of thing easier. However, where would we schlep them off? Conf USA? I just doubt we'd rather not lose the state of FL...

I suspect that neither Miami or the Heels will loose more than a few scholarships and no more than one year of bowl eligiblity. If that happens and Swofford does nothing, I have to wonder why we are still in this conference. The heels violations are very serious to me, in that their football team has no academic credibility. They are simply there to play football and the school condones this. It may be time for Duke to move on.

[Newton_14]

Good article here that provides more detail on the cable market and TV aspect of all this. Mentions a scenario where Duke and UNC would move to the Big Ten in a package deal. That's a new one. Article focuses mainly on the SEC but also mentions Texas, OU and their situation, along with a blurb about the Big East.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...pond-and-more/

[uh_no]

Good article here that provides more detail on the cable market and TV aspect of all this. Mentions a scenario where Duke and UNC would move to the Big Ten in a package deal. That's a new one. Article focuses mainly on the SEC but also mentions Texas, OU and their situation, along with a blurb about the Big East.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...pond-and-more/

The article is HIGHLY speculative in nature and is mostly one persons opinion of what will happen. The author does a poor job of separating fact from opinion. It does, though, bring up a very intereting point: the health of the ACC. Since the realignment 7 years ago, people have been saying that a split in the big east is imminent, but it appears that if the league splits, it will be because of external forces, and not internally driven.

That said, the consensus has been that the big east and big 12 will be the leagues to dissolve, but I think one could make a fair argument at this point that it is the ACC which is more likely to dissolve. It sits right in the middle of 4 other conferences, and we've seen the football torn apart by scandal recently. I don't think its a stretch to see, as the article mentions, Duke and UNC go to the Big 10, with clemson, and gsu going to the SEC. Unfortunately, with the loss of some of its historical coaches, and the relative mediocrity of most of the ACC in basketball, in my opinion, aside from Duke and UNC, the ACC basketball brand is not as strong as it once was. I'm not sure, at this point, that brand is enough to hold the conference together, especially if we see these teams like Miami and GT flaunting the NCAA rules. UNC said last month that they will not tolerate that, and Duke obviously does not. The question would be, can UNC recover, and Duke improve enough to be a boon to Big 10 basketball without seriously compromising its football.

Do I show a big east bias? yes. I'd hate to see it broken up (yes, moreso than the ACC...not having grown up a Duke fan gives me no special affinity to the league, as much as I would love for it to be successful now) But I think the ACC is every bit as vulnerable as the big east, and the assumption that the Big east will not remain down the road is far from a given.

[A-Tex Devil]

So one of three things are going to happen:

1. The SEC will imminently invite a 14th (and perhaps 15th and 16th) team, going against everything they've said all along --- we don't ask people out, they ask us out.

2. The SEC will play with a 13 team league next year -- which means no divisions because I believe it's IMPOSSIBLE to have one 6 team and one 7 team division, and have everyone play the same number of games with no one playing each other twice.

3. The SEC will let A&M twist in the wind until next summer when this stuff should really be going down.

I have a very strong suspicion that it will be #3.