Way Premature 2012-13 top 25

[ncexnyc]

The biggest reason to have confidence that Duke is a top 25 team, even in some of the worst-case scenarios, is simple: Duke kills the regular season.

I mean, if someone wants to place a friendly wager on whether Duke is top 25 at the end of next season (in the polls, in computer rankings, in seeding, whatever the case), I will gladly accept. Heck, we probably get a 1 seed, knowing us :-)

Probably the smartest thing I've read on this thread.

We'll get our usual jump on the competition and steal a game or two early on in the schedule, which will pad our ranking. What we do from there depends on how the team gels for the long run and whether or not some or our sleepers make baby steps or giant steps in their game.

As for CDu talking about us having a probable ALL-ACC forword, I'd advise holding off on writing Mr. Kelly's name on any ballot until we see how his foot heels. I'd give that same advice to our friends down the road when talking about Strickland and McDonald, especially Strickland as his game was built on speed and agility.

[DukeGirl4ever]

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...all-rankings/1

I can't wait to see the reaction USA Today's preseason Top 10 gets!

Wow from #3 in this article to #15 with Andy Katz?

This is why I say these things are completely ridiculous now.
Of course I remember them saying at the end of last year that UNC would be the favorite this year, and that turned out pretty well I think!

It's fun to read, but let me see who comes back next year before I start even thinking about who's Top 10.

[langdonfan]

I think some people are underestimating the potential for next year's team, simply because this year's team lost in the first round. Let's not forget that, even given its warts, this team was in the running for a #1 seed only a few weeks ago. We bring in three McDonald's All-American caliber recruits, two of which should be able to contribute immediately. Sure Miles and Austin are gone, but every other 1 or 2 seed will likely suffer even more damaging losses. I imagine Duke will easily be somewhere between 10-12, with the potential to move a little higher quite quickly.

[FerryFor50]

I think some people are underestimating the potential for next year's team, simply because this year's team lost in the first round. Let's not forget that, even given its warts, this team was in the running for a #1 seed only a few weeks ago. We bring in three McDonald's All-American caliber recruits, two of which should be able to contribute immediately. Sure Miles and Austin are gone, but every other 1 or 2 seed will likely suffer even more damaging losses. I imagine Duke will easily be somewhere between 10-12, with the potential to move a little higher quite quickly.

Way too much stock is put into how a team does in the NCAAs in regards to the pre-season rankings.

Writers do realize that hot streaks can wear off over the course of 6 months, right? Especially when players leave...

[NashvilleDevil]

On the flipside, I'd suggest most of the people here are putting too much faith in our guys, and projecting too much improvement out of our players and not giving other teams the same benefit of the doubt.

Prior to the 2009-10 season no one knew what kind of improvement Nolan was going to have. His last 2 year's he became a Duke legend now you do not think that anyone on this roster can make a Nolan like leap? Because if someone does and you add that to Curry's offensive game and a year improved Mason then that team will be a tough team to beat next year.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know where we or anyone else will be ranked to start the season (and I think until the NBA draft is over it's a bit goofy to guess) but I do know where we finished.
14th. Bleah. That was with Rivers. So even if we replace him Shabazz, I don't see us moving up majorly into the top 10. That's fine with me, gotta earn it.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

[TexHawk]

For Kansas, he says the same thing (again, even though they return very little of interest outside of Withey).

As cautious as I was at the beginning of this year for KU, I am equally bullish for '12-'13. "Very little of interest outside of Withey" includes two other soon-to-be senior starters from the national runner-up. Johnson is a different player than Taylor, not as fast, but a better shooter, and (hopefully) more cautious with the ball. (Ignoring a couple back-breaking ones from last night, of course.) He was the most consistent scorer in the last 10-12 games for KU (better than T-Rob), and he is a much much better defender than Taylor. KU does not beat Purdue, UNC, or Ohio State without him. In fact, Johnson-Withey-Releford is just a nasty defensive trio.

KU also brings in it's own stud freshman (Perry Ellis to take Robinson's starting spot), plus 2 guys who were ruled academically ineligible for 2012 (McLemore* and Traylor). One more year of experience for Tharpe and Young, throw in recuits Zach Peters, Landen Lucas, and maybe Parker, that is absolutely a top 5 team.

* If McLemore (rcsi #25) was getting Teahan's minutes last night, that's a completely different game. I know I know... If my aunt were my uncle...

Honestly, the critical loss is Danny Manning. Parker will likely not end up in Lawrence because of it. Whoever fills the open assistant position will have some big shoes to fill.

[CDu]

As cautious as I was at the beginning of this year for KU, I am equally bullish for '12-'13. "Very little of interest outside of Withey" includes two other soon-to-be senior starters from the national runner-up. Johnson is a different player than Taylor, not as fast, but a better shooter, and (hopefully) more cautious with the ball. (Ignoring a couple back-breaking ones from last night, of course.) He was the most consistent scorer in the last 10-12 games for KU (better than T-Rob), and he is a much much better defender than Taylor. KU does not beat Purdue, UNC, or Ohio State without him. In fact, Johnson-Withey-Releford is just a nasty defensive trio.

That's a very nice defensive trio, but it's a very limited offensive trio. Johnson did become a more consistent scorer down the stretch, but he was absolutely not better than Robinson. In the last 10 games, Johnson averaged 13.5 ppg (topping 15 pts in 4 of those 10), Robinson averaged 17.5 ppg (topping 15 pts in 9 of those 10). And that's in spite of the fact that defenses built their gameplan around defending Robinson and Taylor, leaving Johnson and Releford to beat them.

As an opponent, Withey is the only guy of those three that concerns me offensively. Johnson is a decent scorer but not noteworthy.

KU also brings in it's own stud freshman (Perry Ellis to take Robinson's starting spot), plus 2 guys who were ruled academically ineligible for 2012 (McLemore* and Traylor). One more year of experience for Tharpe and Young, throw in recuits Zach Peters, Landen Lucas, and maybe Parker, that is absolutely a top 5 team.

Ellis is a terrific recruit. I very much doubt that he'll come even remotely close to replacing what Robinson provided. McLemore is nice too, but he's not close to replacing what you lost in Taylor. The rest of the guys you mentioned are 3-star (or less) recruits that are very unlikely to make a big impact next year.

I think you're discounting just how reliant you were on Taylor and Robinson offensively and overstating the readiness of your incoming players.

[gofurman]

By the way - I fully admit this thread is extremely premature. Its just fun. Will know more in the next few weeks. Hopefully lots of other guys go pro from all the other teams !

[subzero02]

Our streak of consecutive weeks in the top 10 of the AP poll is in serious jeopardy

[sporthenry]

I know enough about Tyler Thornton's offense to know that Marcus Paige is a more complete player. Much of what you write besides veers into a best case for Duke, worst case for Carolina. I'm not counting on Strickland in saying I think Paige would be playing with a better backcourt. Limited as they are, Bullock and Hairston are bigger, stronger and more athletic. Both have more room for growth in their games than our returning guards (save Cook). We add Sheed, who I like a great deal, but they add Tokoto to the mix. Even if James/Plumlee is a wash, if Carolina brings back McAdoo, they bring back the best player either team returns. With him, they're clearly better. Without, it's much closer.

How often have you seen Paige play? TT was DC Gatorade POY and regularly got the better of KM. I think many are learning this whole looking to the new guys isn't always the best. Granted K seems to have less trust in freshman than other teams but how many people were bummed we lost out on Tyler Adams, or Deandre Daniels or expected Murphy or Gbinije to play significant roles for us this year? Relying on Freshmen outside the top 10-15 becomes a crapshoot. Freshmen year Kemba Walker only averaged 9 points on 27% from 3 with 2.9 assists and 1.8 TO and he was the #15 recruit for that year. Or how about Alex Murphy's brother, Erik, RSCI #43 above Kawhi Leonard and Erik Bledsoe yet only averaged 9 minutes and 3.5 points his freshmen year or 4.3 points in 10.8 minutes before playing 26 minutes shooting 42% from 3 and averaging 10.5 points. And it isn't like Florida was loaded at the forward position with the likes of Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin. Or Korie Lucious who was RSCI#87 and only averaged 9 minutes and 3.7 points 1.2 assists with 1 turnover before developing into a solid PG albeit with character issues. Or Gorgui Dieng who played 15.6 minutes averaged 4.4 rebounds and 5.7 points before blowing up. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that many of these other teams usually have a worse lineup than Duke does and it isn't like we need our players to develop into lottery picks or game changing players like Dieng.

And best case for Duke is that Plumlee returns and they add TP (or Amile) along with Bazz. Worst case for Duke is they lose Mason. However, you are wrong about worst case for UNC. You want worst case for UNC, how bout McAdoo leaves and Oriakhi goes elsewhere then you have worst case scenario. And McAdoo did show glimpses but I'm not sure that a senior Mason is behind or that far behind McAdoo. McAdoo is getting drafted off potential like when Mason could have been a lottery pick but came back.

And guards have more room for growth doesn't make them better. They actually have to grow. You seem to think like an NBA GM but this is a one year gig and if they don't actually grow then our known commodities are better, hence they have a lot more questions than us. And JP Tokoto is not a name I've heard in a while probably b/c he dropped a lot. I'll admit I base a lot on the rankings but the guy has dropped to mid 60's and dropping usually isn't good (while you get diamonds in the rough like Jeremy Lamb, its more b/c nobody saw them play not b/c they dropped). But this is my biggest gripe, you put Tokoto in the same sentence as Sheed who just got down playing second fiddle in the McD AA to Bazz, yet you still dismiss Alex Murphy who was a top 20 recruit in that class or Gbinije who was top 30 last year. So I'm going to take Gbinije and Murphy who have had a year to practice against fellow top 30 recruits who are 2-3 years their elder and work under the tutelage of our coaching staff and get stronger than a guy in Wisconsin who seemingly didn't develop much and it appears the rest of the HS players caught up to him. So I'd say between Gbinije and Murphy, there is our upside over UNC.

[duke09hms]

How often have you seen Paige play? TT was DC Gatorade POY and regularly got the better of KM. I think many are learning this whole looking to the new guys isn't always the best. Granted K seems to have less trust in freshman than other teams but how many people were bummed we lost out on Tyler Adams, or Deandre Daniels or expected Murphy or Gbinije to play significant roles for us this year? Relying on Freshmen outside the top 10-15 becomes a crapshoot. Freshmen year Kemba Walker only averaged 9 points on 27% from 3 with 2.9 assists and 1.8 TO and he was the #15 recruit for that year. Or how about Alex Murphy's brother, Erik, RSCI #43 above Kawhi Leonard and Erik Bledsoe yet only averaged 9 minutes and 3.5 points his freshmen year or 4.3 points in 10.8 minutes before playing 26 minutes shooting 42% from 3 and averaging 10.5 points. And it isn't like Florida was loaded at the forward position with the likes of Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin. Or Korie Lucious who was RSCI#87 and only averaged 9 minutes and 3.7 points 1.2 assists with 1 turnover before developing into a solid PG albeit with character issues. Or Gorgui Dieng who played 15.6 minutes averaged 4.4 rebounds and 5.7 points before blowing up. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that many of these other teams usually have a worse lineup than Duke does and it isn't like we need our players to develop into lottery picks or game changing players like Dieng.

And best case for Duke is that Plumlee returns and they add TP (or Amile) along with Bazz. Worst case for Duke is they lose Mason. However, you are wrong about worst case for UNC. You want worst case for UNC, how bout McAdoo leaves and Oriakhi goes elsewhere then you have worst case scenario. And McAdoo did show glimpses but I'm not sure that a senior Mason is behind or that far behind McAdoo. McAdoo is getting drafted off potential like when Mason could have been a lottery pick but came back.

And guards have more room for growth doesn't make them better. They actually have to grow. You seem to think like an NBA GM but this is a one year gig and if they don't actually grow then our known commodities are better, hence they have a lot more questions than us. And JP Tokoto is not a name I've heard in a while probably b/c he dropped a lot. I'll admit I base a lot on the rankings but the guy has dropped to mid 60's and dropping usually isn't good (while you get diamonds in the rough like Jeremy Lamb, its more b/c nobody saw them play not b/c they dropped). But this is my biggest gripe, you put Tokoto in the same sentence as Sheed who just got down playing second fiddle in the McD AA to Bazz, yet you still dismiss Alex Murphy who was a top 20 recruit in that class or Gbinije who was top 30 last year. So I'm going to take Gbinije and Murphy who have had a year to practice against fellow top 30 recruits who are 2-3 years their elder and work under the tutelage of our coaching staff and get stronger than a guy in Wisconsin who seemingly didn't develop much and it appears the rest of the HS players caught up to him. So I'd say between Gbinije and Murphy, there is our upside over UNC.

Cmon man, the above part in bold doesnt mean crap. Sure TT might have had some decent games in HS against Kendall, but in college . . . no comparison. AT ALL. Kendall is owning Tyler up and down the court.

What a myth.

[sporthenry]

Cmon man, the above part in bold doesnt mean crap. Sure TT might have had some decent games in HS against Kendall, but in college . . . no comparison. AT ALL. Kendall is owning Tyler up and down the court.

What a myth.

I wasn't arguing the TT was better or anywhere near KM at this point in time. I never said that although I guess my original post was a bit ambiguous, it was more to justify that the guy is not chopped liver and saying that a kid who has never stepped a foot on college basketball is already decidedly better rubs me the wrong way, that was all I was saying.

[Greg_Newton]

I think Michigan could be quite dangerous in a likely depleted field, especially if Trey Burke and Hardaway Jr. come back. McGary and Glenn Robinson Jr. are both big-time impact players, and they could easily have one of the best starting fives in the country, plus that sneaky zone.

[PackMan97]

Top team in the ACC does not guarantee top 10 in the country.

They have a good recruiting class coming in, but you never know how well they'll fit in, and you never know how good they'll be...

They never really beat anyone of note this year outside of Georgetown and had double digit losses. Top 25, for sure. But top 10... I'll believe it when I see it.

NC State was 2-9 against the top 25 RPI. That's almost your double digit losses right there. 22-4 against everyone else. Sure, that's not top 10 material but you can't deny that NC State was playing MUCH better the last month of the season. Pollsters look at the way we played against Duke for 30 minutes, against Carolina in the last two games, against SDSU, GT and KU in the NCAAs. NC State really started to click late in the season and it wasn't the result of hot shooting or one player going nuts (though Leslie did step up) it was team basketball. I also think many folks look at how much having a coach improved our guys and assume there is still some upside to our guys with another year of Gottfried and staff.

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer and the addition of debt, it's not crazy.

[FerryFor50]

NC State was 2-9 against the top 25 RPI. That's almost your double digit losses right there. 22-4 against everyone else. Sure, that's not top 10 material but you can't deny that NC State was playing MUCH better the last month of the season. Pollsters look at the way we played against Duke for 30 minutes, against Carolina in the last two games, against SDSU, GT and KU in the NCAAs. NC State really started to click late in the season and it wasn't the result of hot shooting or one player going nuts (though Leslie did step up) it was team basketball. I also think many folks look at how much having a coach improved our guys and assume there is still some upside to our guys with another year of Gottfried and staff.

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer and the addition of debt, it's not crazy.

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

[CDu]

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

I think with the degree of turnover we're seeing from from year to year in college basketball makes it necessary to consider major jumps possible. Add to that the collection of returning talent and incoming talent (I think Purvis is an immediate impact guy - Warren and Lewis are going to be role playing reserves next year) and the addition of more depth/size inside for State, and I think the expectations are going to be very high for them next year if Leslie returns.

There are still question marks. That team really had only one guy comfortable dribbling in the half court (Brown), and down the stretch of games that limitation showed up (combined with the fact that Leslie and/or Howell were off the floor with fouls) in their close losses. They just weren't comfortable creating offense when it got to crunch time and defenses stiffened. The additions of Purvis and Lewis will help there. Those guys are very confident with the ball in their hands, so they can take turns providing relief for Brown.

Talentwise, that's a top-5 team next year if Leslie returns. And with the weakened ACC, they should certainly improve upon their 9-7 mark this past season. A 24-win team returning all but one of its key players (and replacing that one with an upgrade in talent and depth) and adding an additional big man, with 2 candidates for 1st Team All-ACC sure sounds like a top-10 team to me.

I know it feels weird to discuss State in those terms. But when you return all of the key players from a 24-win team and add a top-5 recruiting class to that team, you should expect big things. It's possibly the beginning of a new era in State basketball. We'll see if Gottfried can build on the strong finish and even stronger recruiting class by taking State further next year and continuing to bring in top-notch talent.

[gumbomoop]

I certainly think it's a stretch to have State at #6, but given the losses many of the top teams will suffer... it's not crazy.

Not at all crazy. In fact, if [1] Leslie returns, and if, [2] as you predict, several of the potential top teams lose guys, NCSt would seem a very likely preseason consensus top 7-10. Pack fans have every reason to be very optimistic.

It's probably in Duke fans' interest for Leslie to leave, both because Pack wouldn't be as strong next year, and because the more guys leave who are likely to be drafted ahead of Mason, maybe Mason worries about sliding to 2d round, and decides to stay.

For some reason, I myself would much prefer that McAdoo leave than Leslie. I guess it's because UNC is the bigger rival, and maybe I think NCSt "deserves" to have a really good season. I might not be thinking that next season if Leslie stays and plays well against Duke.

[CDu]

Not at all crazy. In fact, if [1] Leslie returns, and if, [2] as you predict, several of the potential top teams lose guys, NCSt would seem a very likely preseason consensus top 7-10. Pack fans have every reason to be very optimistic.

It's probably in Duke fans' interest for Leslie to leave, both because Pack wouldn't be as strong next year, and because the more guys leave who are likely to be drafted ahead of Mason, maybe Mason worries about sliding to 2d round, and decides to stay.

For some reason, I myself would much prefer that McAdoo leave than Leslie. I guess it's because UNC is the bigger rival, and maybe I think NCSt "deserves" to have a really good season. I might not be thinking that next season if Leslie stays and plays well against Duke.

I want them both to leave.

That said, I think Leslie leaving has more positive implications for Duke than McAdoo leaving. Leslie just killed us in the game at Duke before foul trouble limited him. We really had no answer for him, and none of the guys we have returning will have an answer either. Without him, that's a very good State team, but it's one that we can match up with much better (though Brown and Purvis will still cause headaches).

McAdoo still needs to prove he's the same matchup nightmare that Leslie was. He's clearly crucial to UNC being really good or just okay, but I don't think he causes the same type of matchup problems that Leslie does. And it's the matchup problems that I worry about. Kelly is a good player and can usually hold his own out there, but Leslie's athleticism is off the charts (I think he was hands down the best athlete in the ACC last year). I'm confident we can beat UNC with McAdoo. State with Leslie and more depth is quite possibly an entirely different animal.

[PackMan97]

I'm not saying the Pack is a bad team. I'm of the opinion that they're on their way up and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as the players don't tune out Gottfried.

As a State alum, I'm perfectly ok with that. However, I also know, as a State alum, to temper my expectations and be realistic.

That's a losers mentality and it's not allowed in Raleigh any more. I have full faith that this coaching staff won't let some good press and a S16 go to the players head. When the positive press started coming out last fall (Howell's weight loss, changes in attitudes, practices, scheduling) I stopped tempering any expectations. This isn't about "being due" or "earning" anything, it's about our players and coaching staff going out and taking it. If you watched the last month of the season this team was hungry and driven. That same attitude will be back in the fall. It's the same drive that the great Duke teams have always had. It's the drive that the championship UNC teams have (which I never saw in them this season).

I don't know how good we'll be, or what record we will end up with, but I'm done being afraid of success and expectations. Gottfried flat out told our guys, 11 ACC wins and you are in the tourney. He didn't hide from it. He didn't only talk about it behind closed doors. He told them exactly what they had to do. The only thing I expect is to see the same effort and intensity. The rest will take care of itself.