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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Freshman Starters at Duke

    There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --

    Code:
    Pct.	Pos.	Player	Year
    100.0%	G	Johnny Dawkins	1983
    100.0%	F	Mark Alarie	1983
    100.0%	G	Tommy Amaker	1984
    100.0%	G	Bobby Hurley	1990
    100.0%	G	Jason Williams	2000
    100.0%	F	Kyle Singler	2008
    97.1%	G	Austin Rivers	2012
    97.0%	G	Jon Scheyer	2007
    91.7%	G	Greg Paulus	2006
    90.9%	G	JJ Redick   	2002
    88.2%	C	Carlos Boozer	2000
    86.5%	F	Luol Deng   	2004
    86.1%	FC	Josh McRoberts	2006
    85.7%	GF	David Henderson	1983
    85.7%	F	Jay Bilas   	1983
    85.7%	F	Elton Brand - 2	1998
    82.4%	G	Jeff Capel	1994
    79.5%	F	Grant Hill	1991
    77.4%	G	Trajan Langdon	1995
    72.7%	G	Kyrie Irving - 2	2011
    69.7%	F	Shelden Williams	2002
    58.1%	C	Taymon Domzalski	1996
    55.6%	F	Shane Battier	1998
    54.5%	F	Lance Thomas	2007
    52.5%	CF	Danny Ferry	1986

    A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

    The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

    Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

    Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

    sagegrouse

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Great job! I'd give you points but I need to spread some love around first. That list really surprises me; I don't know why but I would have thought there would be far fewer names on it. But then with 30 years to populate it, the numbers start to add up. Domzalski is the biggest surprise, and it's fun looking at all those names from '83.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Domzalski is the biggest surprise...
    For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

    sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.
    Bob Green

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

    sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.
    On the bright side, Domzalski did meet his academic potential. I believe he graduated from Duke Med several years back.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Excellent

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

    sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.
    Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.
    Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.
    I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Zeb View Post
    I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.
    He did have two future NBA players ahead of him. More importantly, by season's end he certainly was playing more than Alaa.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --

    Code:
    Pct.	Pos.	Player		Year	recruiting ranking
    100.0%	G	Johnny Dawkins	1983	**
    100.0%	F	Mark Alarie	1983	**?
    100.0%	G	Tommy Amaker	1984	**?
    100.0%	G	Bobby Hurley	1990	**
    100.0%	G	Jason Williams	2000	#3
    100.0%	F	Kyle Singler	2008	#5
    97.1%	G	Austin Rivers	2012	#2
    97.0%	G	Jon Scheyer	2007	#28
    91.7%	G	Greg Paulus	2006	#13
    90.9%	G	JJ Redick   	2002	#11
    88.2%	C	Carlos Boozer	2000	#8
    86.5%	F	Luol Deng   	2004	#2
    86.1%	FC	Josh McRoberts	2006	#1
    85.7%	GF	David Henderson	1983	??
    85.7%	F	Jay Bilas   	1983	??
    85.7%	F	Elton Brand - 2	1998	**
    82.4%	G	Jeff Capel	1994	**?
    79.5%	F	Grant Hill	1991	**
    77.4%	G	Trajan Langdon	1995	**
    72.7%	G	Kyrie Irving - 2 2011	#2
    69.7%	F	Shelden Williams 2002	#8
    58.1%	C	Taymon Domzalski 1996	??
    55.6%	F	Shane Battier	1998	**
    54.5%	F	Lance Thomas	2007	#20
    52.5%	CF	Danny Ferry	1986	**
    51.9%   GF      Ricky Price     1995	**

    A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

    The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

    Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

    Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

    sagegrouse
    Good stuff, Sage. Although you appear to have left off Ricky Price, who started more than half our games in 1994-95 (I inserted him for you). I have also added a column in your fine table for the player's recruiting ranking, using the RSCI. RSCI only goes back to 1998, however, so for player's before that I have used "**" if the player was probably a top 15 recruit and "??" if I don't know or don't think so.

    You will note that except for the years of 2007 and 1983 (two down years for Duke), and with the possible exception of Domzalski (who was probably top 20 but I don't know if he was top 15), every player in your table was a top 15 recruit, and almost all of those were top 10. The list of top 15 recruits who did not start more than half their freshman games is fairly small, and even most of those freshman started a significant number of games:

    Chris Duhon, #7, started 25.6% of his freshman games
    Gerald Henderson, #10, 31.3%
    Elliot Williams, #15, 35.3%
    Ryan Kelly, #14, 0%
    Chris Burgess, **, 8.3%

    I am not suggesting that Coach K looks at the recruiting rankings and decides only to start guys of a certain rank. But these guys are ranked where they are for a reason. Top 10 recruits tend to be both talented and college ready, so they have a much higher chance of starting. Once you get past #15, the talent is at least a little less and the college readiness is generally a lot less (obviously with exceptions, but surprisingly few exceptions when you look at the data).

    So, ultimately, unless Coach K is somewhat desperate (e.g., 2007, 1983), if he's starting a freshman the guy is almost certainly top 15 and most likely top 10. This should be somewhat informative when evaluating the chances of starting for freshmen like Quinn Cook (#31 RSCI), who are outside the top 15.

    As a further note, right now Rasheed Sulaimon is borderline top 15. I'm interested in seeing where he ends up in the final RSCI.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeb View Post
    I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.
    In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Funny

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.
    I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.
    We had signed both Palmer and Laettner early that year, and no question Palmer was the recruit people were excited about. Alonzo Mourning was the clear #1 recruit in the country and he and Palmer were both from the D.C. area. There were stories about a game in which Palmer dominated Mourning - that fueled a lot of the buzz.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --

    Code:
    Pct.	Pos.	Player	Year
    100.0%	G	Johnny Dawkins	1983
    100.0%	F	Mark Alarie	1983
    100.0%	G	Tommy Amaker	1984
    100.0%	G	Bobby Hurley	1990
    100.0%	G	Jason Williams	2000
    100.0%	F	Kyle Singler	2008
    97.1%	G	Austin Rivers	2012
    97.0%	G	Jon Scheyer	2007
    91.7%	G	Greg Paulus	2006
    90.9%	G	JJ Redick   	2002
    88.2%	C	Carlos Boozer	2000
    86.5%	F	Luol Deng   	2004
    86.1%	FC	Josh McRoberts	2006
    85.7%	GF	David Henderson	1983
    85.7%	F	Jay Bilas   	1983
    85.7%	F	Elton Brand - 2	1998
    82.4%	G	Jeff Capel	1994
    79.5%	F	Grant Hill	1991
    77.4%	G	Trajan Langdon	1995
    72.7%	G	Kyrie Irving - 2	2011
    69.7%	F	Shelden Williams	2002
    58.1%	C	Taymon Domzalski	1996
    55.6%	F	Shane Battier	1998
    54.5%	F	Lance Thomas	2007
    52.5%	CF	Danny Ferry	1986

    A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

    The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

    Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

    Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

    sagegrouse
    Cool chart but how high are your expectations if a NCAA runner-up is a less than stellar season

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

    But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

    But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

    -Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. sagegrouse
    Quibbles n bits: Not sure I would classify 1994 as a less than stellar season. Capel was a key contributor to a team that...well it pains me to recall the NC game, but less than stellar hardly fits.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Lancaster, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

    But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

    -Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans
    Jason,

    I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by timmy c View Post
    Jason,

    I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?
    I believe we can consider Murphy for the list. He will be a freshman during the 2012-13 season. Last year, he should have been a senior in high school, but he elected to come to Duke and red shirt for developmental reasons. However I slice it, dice it or analyze it, I end up concluding Murphy is a freshman. He has played in zero college games.
    Bob Green

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

    But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.
    Not sure I completely agree with this. No question Laettner was a top recruit, but so was Palmer. They both were McDAA, and I can tell you from someone who was in school at the time, there was more excitement (albeit uninformed) among the students who followed recruiting about Palmer. The perception at the time was that if one of the two was going to become a star, it was more likely going to be Palmer. We weren't even sure how to pronounce Laettner's name for most of the year.

    You could say the same thing about Burgess and Brand/Battier actually.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    Not sure I completely agree with this. No question Laettner was a top recruit, but so was Palmer. They both were McDAA, and I can tell you from someone who was in school at the time, there was more excitement (albeit uninformed) among the students who followed recruiting about Palmer. The perception at the time was that if one of the two was going to become a star, it was more likely going to be Palmer. We weren't even sure how to pronounce Laettner's name for most of the year.

    You could say the same thing about Burgess and Brand/Battier actually.
    Burgess was in free fall by the time he enrolled at Duke. His prep reputation suffered a huge hit as a senior when junior Kris Lang chewed him up and spit him out in a holiday tournament.

    Discussions like this remind me of how much I rely on RSCI.

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