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  1. #1
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    Premature NBA Playoffs speculation: Real opportunity for former Duke players

    With the college season over and the NBA regular season winding down, I thought I'd take the opportunity to discuss the NBA Playoffs. Specifically, I'd like to talk about what is realistically the best chance we've had in seemingly forever for not one but two ex-Duke players to play a primary role in an NBA Championship.

    The Bulls are on the verge of locking up the #1 seed (again) in the Eastern Conference. They are by far the deepest team in the league, with a bench rotation that could conceivably win 30+ games as a starting unit. They have retooled their lineup and rotations in hopes of being better positioned to beat the Heat in the playoffs. And so far, it has worked. They recently beat Miami essentially without Derrick Rose. In fact, the Bulls were far better with the injured Rose off the court than when he was on the court, as Watson just abused Miami's PG. If Rose gets healthy by playoff time, they have two starting-caliber PG (one of whom is a former MVP), three capable SG (two can be deadly perimeter shooters), tons of length and athleticism at the PF and C spots, and arguably the best in-game coach in the NBA. But just as importantly (at least from this board's perspective), their 2nd and 3rd best players are Duke guys: Deng and Boozer.

    I am a Bulls fan, so I must admit my bias here. But I think this Bulls team has a very good chance to win the title if Rose gets healthy. They were a few shooters away from beating Miami last year, and they've taken steps to resolve that by adding Hamilton, getting Deng to get even better from the perimeter, and finding better ways to get Korver open looks. They also have a finally healthy Boozer, and Boozer has looked terrific in April. Last year, Boozer was hobbled and just couldn't compete with Miami's length and athleticism. This year, he seems healthier and much more effective. I think they can get past Miami, and then would likely have to beat the Thunder for the title.

    From the Duke perspective, this is the first time I can remember a Duke player playing prominent role on a true title contender in my lifetime of 33 years. Deng is an All-Star and a healthy Boozer is playing well thanks in part to fewer minutes being required of him. They're combining for over 30 points and 15 rebounds per game on a team that has 10 guys averaging 7+ ppg. This team plays defense about as well as it can be played (with Boozer and Korver being the lone softies defensively), and they play a very unselfish brand of basketball. It would be terrific if the Bulls could win the title this year and shake the "Duke players don't win NBA championships" mantra with not one but two players playing big roles in a title team.

  2. #2
    Definitely a good chance this year!

    One niggling complaint... Are you ever really an ex Duke player? Or are you a Duke player in the League?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Ash View Post
    Definitely a good chance this year!

    One niggling complaint... Are you ever really an ex Duke player? Or are you a Duke player in the League?
    Don't forget if the Heat win, then Battier gets a ring. So it's (almost) a win-win

  4. #4
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    raleigh
    i was conflicted watching the heat/bulls game the other night....i really want both teams to win...
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  5. #5
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    Jan 2008
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    Chicago
    It is really good to see Boozer play with much more energy and enthusiasm this season. And his confidence is peaking as well.

    It is an often overlooked skill, but I still think that Carlos is the best (if not, one of the best) outlet passers in the game. Fast breaks start with the rebound...and he is a great catalyst.
    Windy City Devil

  6. #6
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    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachJ10 View Post
    It is really good to see Boozer play with much more energy and enthusiasm this season.
    And hair!
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i was conflicted watching the heat/bulls game the other night....i really want both teams to win...
    Admittedly I'm not an unbiased opinion here. But Deng and Boozer are both starters and prominent members of the Bulls. Battier is a reserve role player who plays less than half the game. It is 2 vs 1, and the 2 have a much bigger role in the team's success. And you get to cheer against the "evil empire" and Wade's constant whining.

    Unless you're a Heat fan, I'd say the balance swings heavily in the Bulls' favor.

  8. #8
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    raleigh
    umm....I'm a huge Heat fan.
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    umm....I'm a huge Heat fan.
    Fair enough. In that case, I understand your predicament. No offense, but as a huge Bulls fan, I have to hope your boys fail to live up to the hype this year.

  10. #10
    For the sake of completeness, the other important guy on a playoff team is JJ Redick for Orlando, averaging double digit points. There's also McRoberts with the Lakers and Jones with the Pacers put they play less of a role than JJ, Boozer, or Deng.

  11. #11
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    Mar 2008
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    raleigh
    well, i'm a bulls fan as well, that's why i'm conflicted...i see the bulls/heat as THE matchup, with the winner taking the title...
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  12. #12
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    Macon, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Admittedly I'm not an unbiased opinion here. But Deng and Boozer are both starters and prominent members of the Bulls. Battier is a reserve role player who plays less than half the game. It is 2 vs 1, and the 2 have a much bigger role in the team's success. And you get to cheer against the "evil empire" and Wade's constant whining.

    Unless you're a Heat fan, I'd say the balance swings heavily in the Bulls' favor.
    As a counterpoint you could also say Deng and Boozer's combined years at Duke equal that of Battier's. Not that any of us really care too much, they are all in the Duke family, but it is an interesting point. And I believe Noah's whining is ever more constant than Wade's, but that's just my opinion.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    As a counterpoint you could also say Deng and Boozer's combined years at Duke equal that of Battier's. Not that any of us really care too much, they are all in the Duke family, but it is an interesting point. And I believe Noah's whining is ever more constant than Wade's, but that's just my opinion.
    As a counter-courterpoint you could say that even in saying their combined years only equal Battier's, you still have a situation where each plays a much more significant role than Battier.

    I'd say Noah doesn't whine as much as he screams in celebration unnecessarily. That said, I admit that he's certainly annoying. I'd say he's less so than Wade just because he gets far fewer opportunities than Wade to show his annoying-ness. Of course, I'm biased, so take that for what it is worth.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    well, i'm a bulls fan as well, that's why i'm conflicted...i see the bulls/heat as THE matchup, with the winner taking the title...
    That is indeed a strange predicament. That's got to be a small club you're in!

    I think the Thunder would give the Bulls trouble. I think the Bulls are probably the only threat to the Heat (because Deng is one of the few guys who does a credible job on James, whereas Durant can't guard James). If the Heat beat the Bulls, they aren't likely to lose in the Championship. The Bulls are a little more susceptible, but would still be the favorites in the Championship.

  15. #15
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    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Watching the Heat/Bulls game the other week was kinda tough. I just can't stand the Miami Heat. At the same time it's basically a crime against humanity to root against Battier (or GHill). The whole thing is confusing. Thank goodness the Bulls have a few Duke players to help balance the scales.

    I'm bummed that the Magic have done such a poor job of putting a competitive roster around Dwight and JJ (and yes I'm aware of JJ's role). I'm surprised that Dwight decided to stay longer because I think their window of opportunity passed when Rashard Lewis stopped playing in the paint.

    On a non-Duke front, the Lakers look pretty good without Kobe. Their ball movement is much improved and they are relying on their big men. I've always liked Kobe but I hope he's paying attention because if comes back realizes that he doesn't have to hold the ball so much, they could be really good.

    I always find myself rooting for the Spurs. Especially now that they are older.

    The Thunder are fun to watch. When Duran, Westbrook and Hardin have it going on...wow!

  16. #16
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    First off, great thread theme. I loves me any NBA talk on DBR.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The Bulls are on the verge of locking up the #1 seed (again) in the Eastern Conference. They are by far the deepest team in the league, with a bench rotation that could conceivably win 30+ games as a starting unit. They have retooled their lineup and rotations in hopes of being better positioned to beat the Heat in the playoffs. And so far, it has worked.
    To co-opt the Little Rascals famous retort, "Yoooou said it!" The Bulls bench is out of control good. Thibs has used up to 13 players fairly regularly, and, last night's game aside, you often see that Bulls bench with gaudy +/- results. So many Bulls games start to turn when that unit staggers in (meaning man by man, not that they come in weak) mid to late first quarter. I think the primary worry will be the full re-integration of Rose. It's always tricky when teams learn to win without a ball dominater. Rose, clearly, is not selfish, but he got used to carrying the team. In their OT win against the Pistons last night, he played long and had a huge game, but Deng's scoring was down. I like how Deng got more of an offensive ego with Rose out. As CDu says, I think the Bulls need to be the 2012 Bulls to win the title and can't revert back to Rose-watching during crunch time because it makes them too easy to guard. Obviously, their D is also incredible.

    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    Watching the Heat/Bulls game the other week was kinda tough. I just can't stand the Miami Heat. At the same time it's basically a crime against humanity to root against Battier (or GHill). The whole thing is confusing. Thank goodness the Bulls have a few Duke players to help balance the scales.

    I'm bummed that the Magic have done such a poor job of putting a competitive roster around Dwight and JJ (and yes I'm aware of JJ's role). I'm surprised that Dwight decided to stay longer because I think their window of opportunity passed when Rashard Lewis stopped playing in the paint.

    On a non-Duke front, the Lakers look pretty good without Kobe. Their ball movement is much improved and they are relying on their big men. I've always liked Kobe but I hope he's paying attention because if comes back realizes that he doesn't have to hold the ball so much, they could be really good.

    I always find myself rooting for the Spurs. Especially now that they are older.

    The Thunder are fun to watch. When Duran, Westbrook and Hardin have it going on...wow!
    I, too, find myself rooting for Shane to win a title. His offense has really suffered this year, though. He is not nearly as effective for that team when he is not hitting 3s at a 40%-45% clip. The Heat bench is a mess right now.

    As for the Magic, I think they have done OK by Howard, but Howard clearly is a pretty immature SuperStar who doesn't strike me as being enough of a leader. The way he has handled the Stan Van Gundy situation seems weak. That team has played well this year, they have only fallen apart as his attitude seems to have gone South. Obviously, I don't know what goes on behind closed doors with that team.

    The Spurs and the Celtics are both "old man teams" who seem primed for a run. The Celtics, as they are currently playing, can come out of the East. The Spurs, if they stay healthy, can also come out of the Weat.

    Another immature Giant, Andrew Bynum, is playing like the All Star everyone expected him to become. He is also only 23, and finally healthy. As elvis says, re-introducing Kobe will be key.

    The Thunder are great to watch, and the Grizz are coming on really strong, too.

    In the East - Chicago, Miami and Boston - Lu, Booz and Shane
    Out West - Thunder, Spurs, Lakers, Grizz and Mavs (I won't count them out) - McRoberts stands alone

    But, as others have pointed out, you'll also have Dahntay, Elton (maybe), JJ, Dunleavy (maybe) and Grant (maybe). I hope Grant and Nash can sneak in, it would be a shame to not have them playing in the playoffs.

  17. #17
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    Man, I don't know if anyone watched the Bulls/Heat game last night, but it was entertaining stuff (I can say that in spite of my Bulls losing). Very physical from the start, which led to some chippy stuff as the game progressed. James Jones delivered a calculated double forearm to the throat/chin of Noah, earning a Flagrant 2 foul and ejection. Later, James leveled John Lucas III with a borderline screen (not quite the Dave Neal shot that Nolan Smith took, but close) which led to Lucas yapping in James' face and James shoving Lucas (both getting technicals). And later Hamilton tried to clear space on Wade, and Wade shoved Hamilton off the court, drawing a Flagrant 1 and a double technical on both players.

    It was playoff intensity in spite of the Bulls playing without Rose and the Heat playing without Noah. It appears that the Bulls have the Heat's attention, with guys like Noah, Hamilton, Watson, and Lucas getting under the skin of the Heat players. The Bulls play very tough, physical defense and don't back down, and I think it frustrates the Heat. The Heat have the best player in the league by far and two of the 3 best players in that matchup (the two best if Rose is out), but after Deng and then Bosh the Bulls have perhaps the next 5 or 6 best players (Boozer, Noah, Hamilton, Watson, and Gibson, with Korver/Brewer in the mix as well).

    It's down to 3 games for the Bulls and 4 for the Heat, with the Bulls' magic number is 2. But the Bulls have a much tougher schedule.

    The big question is going to be the health of Rose. He's missed a TON of games this year, with back, groin, ankle, and foot injuries. When healthy, he is a game changer and MVP-caliber player. But his game is all about being more explosive than just about anyone else, so if he's not healthy he's actually a liability (because Watson is very good). The Bulls can probably beat the Sixers without Rose, but they won't beat the Celtics without him, and they certainly won't be the Pacers or Heat without him. So the chances of a pair of Duke guys winning a title hangs on the health of a 6'3" guard who didn't apparently play in a Final Four for Memphis.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Man, I don't know if anyone watched the Bulls/Heat game last night, but it was entertaining stuff (I can say that in spite of my Bulls losing). Very physical from the start, which led to some chippy stuff as the game progressed. James Jones delivered a calculated double forearm to the throat/chin of Noah, earning a Flagrant 2 foul and ejection. Later, James leveled John Lucas III with a borderline screen (not quite the Dave Neal shot that Nolan Smith took, but close) which led to Lucas yapping in James' face and James shoving Lucas (both getting technicals). And later Hamilton tried to clear space on Wade, and Wade shoved Hamilton off the court, drawing a Flagrant 1 and a double technical on both players.

    It was playoff intensity in spite of the Bulls playing without Rose and the Heat playing without Noah. It appears that the Bulls have the Heat's attention, with guys like Noah, Hamilton, Watson, and Lucas getting under the skin of the Heat players. The Bulls play very tough, physical defense and don't back down, and I think it frustrates the Heat. The Heat have the best player in the league by far and two of the 3 best players in that matchup (the two best if Rose is out), but after Deng and then Bosh the Bulls have perhaps the next 5 or 6 best players (Boozer, Noah, Hamilton, Watson, and Gibson, with Korver/Brewer in the mix as well).

    It's down to 3 games for the Bulls and 4 for the Heat, with the Bulls' magic number is 2. But the Bulls have a much tougher schedule.

    The big question is going to be the health of Rose. He's missed a TON of games this year, with back, groin, ankle, and foot injuries. When healthy, he is a game changer and MVP-caliber player. But his game is all about being more explosive than just about anyone else, so if he's not healthy he's actually a liability (because Watson is very good). The Bulls can probably beat the Sixers without Rose, but they won't beat the Celtics without him, and they certainly won't be the Pacers or Heat without him. So the chances of a pair of Duke guys winning a title hangs on the health of a 6'3" guard who didn't apparently play in a Final Four for Memphis.
    I just want to correct something. The James Jones flagrant 2 and ejection happened first.

    Then came the Dwayne Wade shove of Hamilton off the court. He earned a flagrant 1 and then both Wade and Hamilton were assessed technicals (the first double tech). This was the most egregious thing, and Wade should have been ejected because it was out of nowhere and and not a basketball play.

    Later in the game came the James screen on Lucas -- and it was a totally valid screen...no elbows or anything, not even a foul was called ebcause it was a hard but clean play. Deng didn't yell to Lucas and Lucas was just flattened due to size/weight disavantage. Lucas ran up to James immediately and got in LeBrons face, I actually think he touched him, and then James shoved him away. A double technical was assessed here as well.

    So you have James Jones which was on a basketball play, and handled efficiently by the refs. Then you have Wade which should have been an ejection, and inflamed CHI. Then you have the LBJ pick which was clean and on a basketball play, but because of Wade's early transgression it almost started a fight.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by theAlaskanBear View Post
    I just want to correct something. The James Jones flagrant 2 and ejection happened first.

    Then came the Dwayne Wade shove of Hamilton off the court. He earned a flagrant 1 and then both Wade and Hamilton were assessed technicals (the first double tech). This was the most egregious thing, and Wade should have been ejected because it was out of nowhere and and not a basketball play.

    Later in the game came the James screen on Lucas -- and it was a totally valid screen...no elbows or anything, not even a foul was called ebcause it was a hard but clean play. Deng didn't yell to Lucas and Lucas was just flattened due to size/weight disavantage. Lucas ran up to James immediately and got in LeBrons face, I actually think he touched him, and then James shoved him away. A double technical was assessed here as well.

    So you have James Jones which was on a basketball play, and handled efficiently by the refs. Then you have Wade which should have been an ejection, and inflamed CHI. Then you have the LBJ pick which was clean and on a basketball play, but because of Wade's early transgression it almost started a fight.
    Yeah, Wade should have been ejected for the shove. I completely agree. It was a non-basketball play (similar to the Jones play, just not as dangerous). But because Wade is a star, Jones is a scrub (and the game was in Miami), and Jones' shot was head-high it was only Jones that got tossed.

    I agree that James' hit is not typically called a foul. But I disagree that such a hit should be considered clean. He didn't use his elbow, but he leaned into it with his forearm rather than taking the shot in the chest. It's a dangerous play. It was not to the extent of Neal's forearm to Smith's head, but it was more in that direction. When you have time to line up a defenseless defender (oxy moron?) like that, there's no reason that you can't get squared so that the collision is to your chest. And taking it in the chest is MUCH less dangerous for the defender than turning the forearm into the defender. Players like to "lower the boom" on these screens rather than take it in the chest like they're supposed to do, and that's outside of the spirit of the rules.

    I had to chuckle with the bolded comment though (and I used the term too). Lucas is about 5'9" to James' 6'8". So I'd more accurately say that Lucas got in James' chest. He bumped James' arm in the process. Certainly not worthy of the shove that he got.

    It seemed like the Heat were frustrated with the Bulls' trash talking (it should be no surprise that Noah, Hamilton, and Lucas are the Bulls' biggest trash talkers along with Boozer and Watson). That, combined with their recent struggles, probably led them to decide to "show their toughness" by shoving the Bulls around. At least that's the sense I got from the game.

    Hopefully both teams make it through to the Eastern Conference Finals and are healthy. It should be a fun series if that happens. I'm just worried that Rose isn't going to be healthy enough to make it happen.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, Wade should have been ejected for the shove. I completely agree. It was a non-basketball play (similar to the Jones play, just not as dangerous). But because Wade is a star, Jones is a scrub (and the game was in Miami), and Jones' shot was head-high it was only Jones that got tossed.

    I agree that James' hit is not typically called a foul. But I disagree that such a hit should be considered clean. He didn't use his elbow, but he leaned into it with his forearm rather than taking the shot in the chest. It's a dangerous play. It was not to the extent of Neal's forearm to Smith's head, but it was more in that direction. When you have time to line up a defenseless defender (oxy moron?) like that, there's no reason that you can't get squared so that the collision is to your chest. And taking it in the chest is MUCH less dangerous for the defender than turning the forearm into the defender. Players like to "lower the boom" on these screens rather than take it in the chest like they're supposed to do, and that's outside of the spirit of the rules.

    I had to chuckle with the bolded comment though (and I used the term too). Lucas is about 5'9" to James' 6'8". So I'd more accurately say that Lucas got in James' chest. He bumped James' arm in the process. Certainly not worthy of the shove that he got.

    It seemed like the Heat were frustrated with the Bulls' trash talking (it should be no surprise that Noah, Hamilton, and Lucas are the Bulls' biggest trash talkers along with Boozer and Watson). That, combined with their recent struggles, probably led them to decide to "show their toughness" by shoving the Bulls around. At least that's the sense I got from the game.

    Hopefully both teams make it through to the Eastern Conference Finals and are healthy. It should be a fun series if that happens. I'm just worried that Rose isn't going to be healthy enough to make it happen.
    Likewise, I have been rooting for the Bulls, due to Deng/Boozer and I love Thibs as a coach. Everyone seems to think these guys are headed on a collision course, but I like you am concerned about Chicagos health and Rose's effectiveness. Boston is playing great, and the Pacers have given the Bulls a tough time too. As of now they line up with either Boston or the Pacers in the second round should those teams win their series.

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