Tonight we have
Celtics @ Hawks
Nuggets @ Lakers
Sixers @ Bulls
Will any of the home teams lose tonight?
Anyone catch Bosh's videobomb of LeBron?
Tonight we have
Celtics @ Hawks
Nuggets @ Lakers
Sixers @ Bulls
Will any of the home teams lose tonight?
If Rondo and Allen were playing, I'd say the Hawks might lose. With Rondo now out and Allen not likely to play (and not likely to play well if he does play), I'd say the Hawks go up 2-0. I don't see the Lakers or Bulls (even without Rose) losing, either. So I say no. The most likely squad to take the "L" would be Chicago, but I think that team is still better than the Sixers, even without Rose.
Yeah, this is largely a function of his defense and rebounding. He is a way better scorer than Chandler, but I wouldnt trust Amare to gaurd anyone, although he did have a block against Bosh.
About the Heat: Battier has stepped up big time and is starting to heat up from three. Also, you couldnt PAY me to take a charge on LeBron James.
Both the Celtics and the Sixers I would give a 50% chance of winning, the Nuggets just 20%. Boston came out without effort in the first game, expect them to play really tough against the Hawks tonight. I still think the Bulls pull out the win...but the Sixers are playing playing well and you never know. The Nuggets should lose, they don't have the size to play against LA. Unless they can figure out a way to speed LA up they have no hope.Celtics @ Hawks
Nuggets @ Lakers
Sixers @ Bulls
Will any of the home teams lose tonight?
Last night, the Heat started with James on Carmelo and he was locking him up pretty good. Then, Shane came in to guard Carmelo and Melo completely destroyed him for the rest of the first quarter. I think he had 12 of his 14 in Q1 with Shane guarding him, including an array of pull-ups, drives - the full repertoire. At this point, Shane can't guard him one-on-one. Shane was promptly sent to the bench. However, he played him much better in the second half, and he got a lot more support from his teammates. The fact that he knocked down three 3s helped his mojo. If the Heat are going to win it, I want Shane to play a meaningful role. The pundits are all saying that he isn't nearly the same player he was a few years ago, and the first quarter made those words seem true. But, the staff seems to play him in crunch time and he executes the game plan flawlessly, which counts for something.
Gotta give credit to Woodson, in the first game Battier, James and the Heat did a terrific job with ball denial (see those 27 steals?) and stymied Melo by making it really difficult for him to get the ball. This second game Woodson got the ball to Melo early and let Melo do the offense -- in 1v1 situations Melo will burn Shane almost every time -- which he did.
The Celtics are playing without Rondo tonight. As such, I'd be shocked if they win. That's just not a very good team without Rondo. If they also don't have Ray Allen at full strength (or at all), I just don't see them beating the Hawks.
I also disagree with the 50/50 for the Sixers. Chicago won about 2/3 of their games without Rose this year, while the Sixers are basically a .500 team. I'd give the edge to the home team with the better record. I'd say a ~40% chance of winning for the Sixers. But that's substantially higher than the odds I would give either the Celtics or the Nuggets.
I'll predict
Atlanta
Denver
Chicago
tonight.
Crazy night in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics, without their starting backcourt, upset the Hawks in Atlanta behind a great performance by Paul Pierce and an abysmal showing by Jeff Teague and Josh Smith for Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Bulls inexplicably stopped playing defense and lost badly to the Sixers at home.
The first game was surprising in that I didn't expect Boston to be able to generate enough offense to win. But Pierce turned back the clock a few years and Atlanta's offense kept Boston in the game.
The second game was the real shocker. Not so much because the Bulls lost, but the way that they lost. If you'd asked me before the game who would win, I'd have said the Bulls. I'd have said that because I felt they'd win 85-80 or something like that, with the defense stifling the Sixers. The Bulls were the best rebounding team and best defensive team in the NBA, and losing Rose shouldn't have affected either of those things. If anything, his absence should have affected the offense. But the Bulls managed 92 points (and gave away a few more at the line), which is normally more than sufficient for them to win. Instead, they allowed 109 points on 59% shooting from the field, and were outrebounded by the Sixers 38-32. Some of that was Philly hitting some ridiculous shots, but the rebounding thing is somewhat inexcusable.
I still think the Bulls will win this series. But they'll have to get back to defense and rebounding. I look for them to make a statement in Game 3 in Philly Friday night.
But the PG not named Derrick Rose (CJ Watson) is actually the better defender of the two. That was my point: the two places that the Bulls should not have been affected much by the loss of Rose were in rebounding and defense. And those were the two places that they were most affected.
Getting 17 Boozer and Deng isn't great, but they got 15 from Lucas, 21 from Noah, and solid contributions from everyone else. Offensively, they would have been right at their season average if they'd hit their free throws at their normal rate. So that's not why they lost. It was in defense and rebounding that they lost the game, and that was surprising. Again, some of that was due to the Sixers hitting a TON of jumpshots. But 59% can't all be explained by jumpshots. They've got to get back to form defensively if they're going to win this series.
I was at the game. The Bulls offense was in complete disarray for most of the second half, with many possessions ending with a contested jumper with seconds left on the shot clock and no one in decent position for offensive boards. IMHO, this contributed a lot to both the rebounding deficit and the run-out baskets by the 76ers. The Bulls have to control tempo and keep games at a half-court pace to win the series, especially with Rose out. They failed miserably last night - the over/under for the game was 177 points, the actual tally was 201.
I agree that the Sixers hit a lot of jumpers, but a number of those, especially by Holiday and Williams, were basically uncontested. Watson and Lucas were both awful on defense last night, and Hamilton had a rough night against Evan Turner as well, though he at least made him work for his points. The other issue with Watson and Lucas is that neither is really a natural PG (i.e. a creating/facilitating type). Both are scorers first and foremost. Someone a bit more adept at driving and dishing might have helped a lot last night.
The 25 fast break points were a big part of it. The Sixers did a good job of chasing Korver, Deng, and Hamilton, and the ability of those guys to work off the ball has been the key to the Bull's success without Rose. Watson and Lucas are typically better at facilitating with the pass than they were last night. I agree that they aren't pure PG in that they don't create for others off the dribble. But Rose doesn't really do that either - he is a score-first PG whose first and second instincts are to shoot off the dribble. But even still, the Bulls shot 45% from the field, which is their season average. They were above their season average from 3pt range. And they actually had fewer turnovers than usual. So that doesn't explain the loss. It's not like they were missing so many more shots or coughing the ball up so much that they were creating more easy scoring chances for Philly.
It was just a poor defensive effort and a good shooting night by the Sixers. I was very disappointed in the defensive effort by Watson on Holliday. That's the thing he does best on the court. Against Miami, he regularly flusters Chalmers completely out of his game. Last night, though, he just couldn't do anything to stop Holliday. I expect less than stellar defense from Lucas, so that's not a shock. But Watson is a very good defender. I thought Hamilton did a good job on Turner. It was Turner who was most guilty of hitting heavily contested shots. I remember 2 or 3 mid-range shots in particular that Hamilton was all over Turner and Turner still made it. Can't fault Hamilton there. When Brand, Allen, Turner, and Hawes combine for 10 made jumpers from 15-20 feet (and shoot over 60% from the field) and when you allow 25 fast break points, that's a recipe for a loss. Add in that Williams and Holliday shot an out-of-this-world 19-28 (I don't care how open you are, if you're hitting 60+% on long jumpshots, you're having a ridiculous night) and it was trouble.
It was a fun night of basketball, for sure! When the Bulls started to get behind in the 3rd quarter I knew it was over...you could tell by their body language and energy. There had to be a lot of emotional fatigue in last nights game. You play your heart out without Rose, grab homecourt, then Rose is going to come back and carry you to victory...and he blows out his ACL -- its very deflating in a season with lots of ups and downs.
Rebounding wasn't really such a problem, or rather it was a subset of the larger problem -- the fastbreak points and high shooting percentage. Philadelphia had only 32 misses compared to 46 for the Bulls.