2018 DBR NBA Mock Draft - It's a wrap!

[Acymetric]

I have this weird feeling that the real Hornets will take Kevin Knox, out of a 95% belief that he will be the best fit at #11, and a 5% belief that the powder blue fans will think he’s a magically resculpted Kennedy Meeks.

Please no! I think Knox has some of the highest bust potential of any of the top 15 picks, possibly excepting Porter but I consider a career derailed by injury slightly different than a talent-related bust. If we can't get Bridges (either) or Porter, I would take a chance on a center to step in for Howard in the coming years (although I am not high on any of these centers). If Carter Jr were to fall so far, that would certainly be the top choice (and some people do seem to think he's going to fall, although not necessarily that far). Carter and Miles Bridges are both guys who I consider to be among the safest top 15 picks, but with slightly less ceiling/all-star potential.

[kAzE]

Please no! I think Knox has some of the highest bust potential of any of the top 15 picks, possibly excepting Porter but I consider a career derailed by injury slightly different than a talent-related bust. If we can't get Bridges (either) or Porter, I would take a chance on a center to step in for Howard in the coming years (although I am not high on any of these centers). If Carter Jr were to fall so far, that would certainly be the top choice (and some people do seem to think he's going to fall, although not necessarily that far). Carter and Miles Bridges are both guys who I consider to be among the safest top 15 picks, but with slightly less ceiling/all-star potential.

Wait . . . really? I think Knox has one of the safest baselines you can find in this draft. He's huge, clearly a good shooter, and seems to be a good defender. He seems like he'd be able to guards 3s and 4s, and play some stretch 4 when he gets stronger. That's pretty all you need to live in the NBA for a decade these days.

[tbyers11]

Wait . . . really? I think Knox has one of the safest baselines you can find in this draft. He's huge, clearly a good shooter, and seems to be a good defender. He seems like he'd be able to guards 3s and 4s, and play some stretch 4 when he gets stronger. That's pretty all you need to live in the NBA for a decade these days.

I agree with this take. Knox seems like a high floor, low ceiling type of player to me. I think he will be a rotation player/potential starter for 10 years, but I would be surprised if he ever made an All-Star team

[DukieTiger]

Clips need help on the wings and take a guy with solid 2-way potential and some scoring punch.

Picking from work, GM Tiger will chime in later with his rationale.

[DukieTiger]

Sources within organization say that Clips were looking for insurance in case DeAndre Jordan declines his player option.

Stay tuned for more.

[JNort]

Wait . . . really? I think Knox has one of the safest baselines you can find in this draft. He's huge, clearly a good shooter, and seems to be a good defender. He seems like he'd be able to guards 3s and 4s, and play some stretch 4 when he gets stronger. That's pretty all you need to live in the NBA for a decade these days.

Yeah I'm hoping we can get Knox.

[Turk]

Let's start by assessing the 76ers. We know there are two cornerstones - Simmons and Embiid (the latter, technically an RFA, is 100% getting re-signed). There are then three expected major contributors locked up for a while - Covington, Fultz (we remain optimistic he will move to the cornerstone bucket), and Saric. The rest of the roster falls somewhere on the spectrum between intriguing young talent and spare parts (the other people under contract are TJ McConnell, Justin Anderson, Timothy Luwawu, Furkan Korkmaz, Richaun Holmes (technically, a team option, but a very favorable one), and, to steal a bit from Bill Simmons, Jerryd Bayless's expiring contract). Surrounding those players is abundant cap space (as of now, only $45 million committed to next season, but Embiid's extension will eat up some of that), which puts the Sixers in the mix for any big name free agent/star trade.

One could say that the 2018 season was a year ahead of schedule - a 24-win improvement, a playoff series win, and their star young players becoming legitimate all-NBA candidates, even with their most recent #1 pick contributing very little. Yet I don't think 2018 changes the philosophy of building this team - this mock GM believes the 76ers should continue to focus on talent-acquisition and not immediately jump into the win-now mentality. So while I have an eye on fit, and would maybe use it as a tiebreaking consideration, the general approach is still to prioritize best available talent and worry about how it fits together later - if it doesn't fit, we can deal it for something else that does (or more assets to use).

All that being said, we were really hoping that Mikal Bridges would last one more spot, as he would be a perfect defensive minded addition to slot alongside the existing core and has shown the chops to be a good enough shooter to stretch the floor around Simmons. Bridges is getting touted as Kawhi-lite and has the potential to grow into an all-NBA defense piece. We're disappointed the Knicks snagged him.*

*I suspect that if the real life Knicks GM were given the choice between Michael Porter and Mikal Bridges, the 76ers would end up getting the chance to draft Bridges. But I digress.

But to say that Michael Porter is a fallback pick doesn't really seem fair. Coming into the NCAA season, he was touted as possibly the best overall recruit and a real candidate for the #1 overall pick. Injuries slowed his momentum - he only played 3 games and didn't play those particularly well. There's some question of fit - he's a fair outside shooter but tends to be more ball dominant and interior focused, so there's some risk that he, Fultz, Simmons, and Embiid would clog things up too much for the modern NBA. But the talent is unquestionably there, and getting #1 talent with the #10 pick is just too good for this team to pass up. And I don't think anyone else who might be available here is such a better fit that it would be worth passing up on Porter.

Strong analysis; Porter would be a no-brainer if this happened in real life. Best available SF or SG should do nicely, or even a big who can back up Saric and Embiid.

A couple of clarifications:

1. Per basketball-reference.com, Joel Embiid is locked up thru 2022-23. In the only major achievement of Sonny Corleone's doomed tenure as GM, he signed Embiid to the 5 year $146 mill rookie max extension that walked the tightrope between taking care of JoJo and risking cap-crippling guaranteed money to someone who might miss big chunks of time with injuries.

2. The correct quote to steal from Bill Simmons is "Jerryd Bayless's rotting corpse".

[pfrduke]

Strong analysis; Porter would be a no-brainer if this happened in real life. Best available SF or SG should do nicely, or even a big who can back up Saric and Embiid.

A couple of clarifications:

1. Per basketball-reference.com, Joel Embiid is locked up thru 2022-23. In the only major achievement of Sonny Corleone's doomed tenure as GM, he signed Embiid to an extension that walked the tightrope between taking care of JoJo and risking cap-crippling guaranteed money to someone who might miss big chunks of time with injuries.

2. The correct quote to steal from Bill Simmons is "Jerryd Bayless's rotting corpse".

I use HoopsHype for all my salary information because it presents it in a user friendly way, but I guess it's not always up to date. Adding Embiid's contract puts them at $70mm in committed salaries, so still room for a max player in free agency.

[coldriver10]

And woke up feeling a lot older than you thought you were ...

Fact. The mosh pit was a bad idea.

[Turk]

I use HoopsHype for all my salary information because it presents it in a user friendly way, but I guess it's not always up to date. Adding Embiid's contract puts them at $70mm in committed salaries, so still room for a max player in free agency.

Yup, so JoJo is locked, and the Sixers are definitely hunting for LeBron, Kawhi, or PG13.

[CDu]

Kevin Knox, SF/PF Kentucky. Knox has the measurables and physical profile of a Jayson Tatum. He doesn’t have nearly the game that Tatum had coming out of Duke, of course. But he is one of the youngest players in the draft, and he profiles as a combo forward, capable of defending 2s-4s. He also shows signs of a nice jumper, so even if he doesn’t develop his full offensive arsenal, he can still find a place on the court in the NBA as a catch and shoot wing or smallball 4. At the 14th pick, that seems good value.

[Reddevil]

UK goes back to back with this 6'6" PG.
He does not need to start right away which is good because he won't. Wall will be there for another five years, but DC would be well served to get his backup. SGA has the size and athleticism to defend guards and small forwards. Like most rookies he will need to work on shooting consistency.

[NSDukeFan]

With the 16th pick (sorry I don’t know how to embolden on my phone ), the Phoenix Suns select Dzanan Musa. As indicated with our first pick, we need everything. I think I would prefer to trade up with another of our picks to get a top 12 pick, but can’t in this mock draft. The player that seems to be projected for this spot is not someone I seem to be able to get excited about so we are going for the young, long,(not in terms of wingspan, just height) lean 19 year old scoring machine. We’re hoping we can slot Musa in our wing rotation and have him grow with the rest of our young team and hopefully, pick up the rest of the game as he adds some weight, learns and matures.

[-jk]

With the 16th pick (sorry I don’t know how to embolden on my phone ), the Phoenix Suns select Dzanan Musa. As indicated with our first pick, we need everything. I think I would prefer to trade up with another of our picks to get a top 12 pick, but can’t in this mock draft. The player that seems to be projected for this spot is not someone I seem to be able to get excited about so we are going for the young, long,(not in terms of wingspan, just height) lean 19 year old scoring machine. We’re hoping we can slot Musa in our wing rotation and have him grow with the rest of our young team and hopefully, pick up the rest of the game as he adds some weight, learns and matures.

Quick lesson: you can manually add bold with a vB tag - a "b" in brackets, your stuff to be emboldened, followed by a "/b" in brackets (but no quotes, of course).

For example, [b] your stuff to be emboldened [/b].

(I did some other stuff to make the tags show for this example, though.)

Other stuff in the brackets will do other things; these are the only ones I ever do manually (don't forget to drop the quotes and use the brackets):

"i" and "/i" does italics.

"url=http://www.dukebasketballreport.com" and "/url" will make a nicer looking linky.

"quote" and "/quote" does a

quote box

but without the link back to any original post.


-jk

[kAzE]

The Bucks have a pressing need for a competent center, but just about all the options we were willing to draft here at 17 are gone, and with the exception of a few players, young big men usually aren't ready to contribute immediately. Thon Maker, Jon Henson, and Tyler Zeller are not getting the job done (2 Tar Heels and a guy whose real age is still a complete mystery). We would most likely do better in free agency at this point in the draft.

The Bucks are looking to build a contender around all-world talent Giannis Antetokounmpo, and have may have finally found the coach to take them there in Mike Budenholzer.

But with that said, we will draft the unproven 19 year old Smith. He's actually VERY young, as he only turned 19 this month (June).

Zhaire Smith's game tape is ridiculous. (fast forward to 5:03 and you'll see what I mean). This guy is an unreal athlete with hang time rivaling the best dunkers in the NBA. He also really gets after it with his high effort plays, often coming up with putback dunks and chase down blocks as a 6'5" guard. He has a motor that never stops, and is a very good rebounder as a guard.

He's an incredibly versatile defender, who guarded all sorts of players for TX Tech last season, ranging from Jevon Carter to Mo Bamba. He has a 6'10" wingspan, which is how he was able to average 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals in just 28 minutes per game. He's a very tough kid who battles bigger players, fights through screens, and closes out on jump shooters hard. He crashes the offensive glass like crazy and is obviously a very reliable finisher in transition.

He actually has a very beautiful looking jump shot, and shot 45% on 3 pointers last season, though he rarely took them (9 for 20 on the season). He shot around 72% from the free throw line.

His weaknesses are that he's still a bit physically underdeveloped. As incredible an athlete as he is, he's still just 195 pounds and needs to add a lot of strength before he can really become a consistent contributor. His ball handling could stand to improve, but he has shown a surprisingly high feel for the game in his quick decision making. He doesn't commit dumb turnovers.

So even though we're sort of trying to win now, I'm willing to swing for the fences with the ultra-young Zhaire Smith. There's so much to like about this kid, and the absolute ceiling for him is an all-star level player if everything goes right.

[johnb]

Quick lesson: you can manually add bold with a vB tag - a "b" in brackets, your stuff to be emboldened, followed by a "/b" in brackets (but no quotes, of course).

For example, [b] your stuff to be emboldened [/b].

(I did some other stuff to make the tags show for this example, though.)

Other stuff in the brackets will do other things; these are the only ones I ever do manually (don't forget to drop the quotes and use the brackets):

"i" and "/i" does italics.

"url=http://www.dukebasketballreport.com" and "/url" will make a nicer looking linky.

"quote" and "/quote" does a but without the link back to any original post.


-jk

Thanks!

[brevity]

With the first pick... We considered 3 players at this position and none of them was Jaren Jackson.

But, I'm thrilled to get Bamba, who is the guy I grade 2nd best in this draft (I'm not an Ayton fan).

I was hoping to do some damage to Mock Draft Conventional Wisdom (MDCW) and looked at Collin Sexton, Wendell Carter, and Michael Porter to take at #4.

This is an early sampler, but I feel like there is a wide range of opinions about the top of this draft.

Now that the mystery is gone -- mock lottery selections are complete and we move into the lower half of the first round -- I wanted to field a question to the mock GMs of lottery teams: What did your personal Big Board (top 10-14) look like? You can speak generally, or specifically in the perspective of your assigned team.

I'll start. Once we got a good picture of who was in the draft, I had already decided that, to me, Bamba was not a Top 5 pick and Jaren Jackson was not a Top 10 pick. I preferred Sexton over Young as a pro. Carter was underrated. Porter was a wild card. I chose Memphis because of their draft position, believing I could shape the draft with an early curveball, and figuring (incorrectly) that Ayton-Doncic-Bagley would go 1-2-3. I started to look closer at team needs, but the Grizzlies roster/payroll was too depressing.

So my Lottery Big Board -- not specific to Memphis -- might look like this:

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Luka Doncic
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Collin Sexton
5. Wendell Carter
6. Michael Porter
7. Mohamed Bamba
8. Miles Bridges
9. Trae Young
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Robert Williams
12. Jaren Jackson
13. Kentucky guyZZZZzzzzz

Evidently I lost interest in this exercise around #13. What about yours? Massive differences of opinion are encouraged.

[JNort]

This is an early sampler, but I feel like there is a wide range of opinions about the top of this draft.

Now that the mystery is gone -- mock lottery selections are complete and we move into the lower half of the first round -- I wanted to field a question to the mock GMs of lottery teams: What did your personal Big Board (top 10-14) look like? You can speak generally, or specifically in the perspective of your assigned team.

I'll start. Once we got a good picture of who was in the draft, I had already decided that, to me, Bamba was not a Top 5 pick and Jaren Jackson was not a Top 10 pick. I preferred Sexton over Young as a pro. Carter was underrated. Porter was a wild card. I chose Memphis because of their draft position, believing I could shape the draft with an early curveball, and figuring (incorrectly) that Ayton-Doncic-Bagley would go 1-2-3. I started to look closer at team needs, but the Grizzlies roster/payroll was too depressing.

So my Lottery Big Board -- not specific to Memphis -- might look like this:

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Luka Doncic
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Collin Sexton
5. Wendell Carter
6. Michael Porter
7. Mohamed Bamba
8. Miles Bridges
9. Trae Young
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Robert Williams
12. Jaren Jackson
13. Kentucky guyZZZZzzzzz

Evidently I lost interest in this exercise around #13. What about yours? Massive differences of opinion are encouraged.

Mine would be nearly identical.

[kAzE]

Here's my top 10:

1. Luka Doncic
2. DeAndre Ayton
3. Marvin Bagley
4. Wendell Carter
5. Jaren Jackson
6. Michael Porter
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Mo Bamba
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

[awhom111]

The official early entry list is here, so no excuses for picking an ineligible player:
http://www.nba.com/article/2018/06/1...nba-draft-2018

As usual, I will compare our draft to the real thing next week.

We are moving even faster than usual. I better do my research.