I would break the team into three tiers as follows:
Tier 1: Henderson, Singler, Scheyer, Paulus & Smith. These are our proven players, the nucleus, core, go-to-guys, whichever label one prefers. I have an extreme level of confidence that these players will get the job done.
Tier 2: Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, & Pocius. These are our experienced players who still have something to prove. All four have been slowed by injuries and illness. We need these players to stay healthy and step up their game. I've made it clear in a different thread that my money is on Zoubek.
Tier 3: Williams, Plumlee, & Czyz. The unknown. Which, if any, of the freshmen will challenge for playing time? Singler was a 28.6 mpg/13.3 ppg player last season, Scheyer played 33.7 mpg/scored 12.2 ppg the season before, and Paulus played 32.3 mpg/scored 6.7 ppg as a freshman in 05/06. Will one of this year's freshmen emerge as a starter?
For Duke to achieve and maintain legitimate Top 10 status, three players from Tier 2 and/or Tier 3 are going to have to be consistently productive. Three players will emerge and become part of the eight man rotation. Two more will see spot minutes in specific roles. A 12 player rotation isn't going to happen and a 10 man rotation is extremely difficult to manage. Two players will see little to no playing time.