NBA draft shooting guard comparison (Nelson included)

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...ard-Crop-2924/

Excellent analysis.

[mgtr]

Fascinating. I spent about 10 minutes studying the data -- probably should be more like 10 hours. I was not aware of all of these combined measurements which existed.

[doctorhook]

Incredible info for those of us who are stat junkies. Lawson had consistently high rankings in the PG stats. I wonder how much teams depend on these as opposed to the players career stats, impressions, etc. I am sure it varies considerably from team to team. Doc

[brevity]

This was fantastic. It's nice to see some numbers that support my strong suspicion that Eric Gordon is going to be a bust in the NBA, and doesn't belong anywhere near the top 10. (I think OJ Mayo's fate will depend greatly on the team he's on, but Gordon will underwhelm anywhere.)

Conversely, I like seeing some evidence that there will be league-quality guards waiting to be selected in the second round. Actually, this is a good time to be DeMarcus Nelson. I've often thought that he could carve a niche as an undersized rebounding guard, sort of like Rajon Rondo (who's also 6'1"). With Rondo now grabbing a large amount of attention in the NBA Finals, you have to think teams will be keeping their eye on draftable players who appear to fit that mold.

I look forward to DraftExpress' analysis of other positions and players, especially Kevin Love. (I get the feeling he'd be a really good pick in the top 20, not so much in the top 10.)

[CDu]

Conversely, I like seeing some evidence that there will be league-quality guards waiting to be selected in the second round. Actually, this is a good time to be DeMarcus Nelson. I've often thought that he could carve a niche as an undersized rebounding guard, sort of like Rajon Rondo (who's also 6'1"). With Rondo now grabbing a large amount of attention in the NBA Finals, you have to think teams will be keeping their eye on draftable players who appear to fit that mold.

Rondo is a PG who happens rebound well. He's not an undersized rebounding guard. So unless Nelson develops PG skills, the comparison isn't very applicable.

[Edouble]

Rondo is a PG who happens rebound well. He's not an undersized rebounding guard. So unless Nelson develops PG skills, the comparison isn't very applicable.

I think he was just saying that Rondo is undersized to rebound, but not an undersized guard. I could be reading it wrong though. I agree that Rondo is undersized as a player to rely on for rebounds, but not undersized for a PG. Nelson will have no chance to play PG in the league though, so it probably isn't a great comparison anyway.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

With some experience - He could become a very good defender of 1's and 2's. He's incredibly quick and strong and has a nice reach. I am guessing if he has any chance at filling a spot - thats his niche.

[brevity]

Rondo is a PG who happens rebound well. He's not an undersized rebounding guard. So unless Nelson develops PG skills, the comparison isn't very applicable.

I think he was just saying that Rondo is undersized to rebound, but not an undersized guard. I could be reading it wrong though. I agree that Rondo is undersized as a player to rely on for rebounds, but not undersized for a PG. Nelson will have no chance to play PG in the league though, so it probably isn't a great comparison anyway.

"Rondo is undersized as a player to rely on for rebounds" is a better way of saying what I wanted to say.

Valid points, both of you. The Rondo/Nelson comparison may prove to be a completely lousy comparison. But that doesn't really matter. Scouts and execs actively seeking the next Rondo will latch onto PGs and SGs with strong rebounding skills, which can only be beneficial to Nelson's draft status.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

SF comparisons are now up..

[CDu]

SF comparisons are now up..

These are based on performance against college players, right? Is there any discussion of how well this correlates with NBA success? The discussion with regard to Nelson has always come down to the fact that he's been a SF in a PG body, and whether or not he can be useful as a defensive-minded SG in the NBA despite his size disadvantage. In college, he could get away with that a bit more easily, as many teams play three-guard lineups and players generally play down a position compared to the NBA to begin with.

I'd be interested to see how well this predicts NBA success.