Doug Gottlieb on DeMarcus Nelson

[Got_Duke]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

[CDu]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

It's pretty valid I think. There's a difference between being a set-shooter and having a good jumper. Nelson had a nice 3-point %, but he really didn't take many jumpers in college. Nelson was a set-shooter in college. Either he stood still and shot wide open shots, or he drove all the way to the rim. I can't think of a single time he took a shot beyond 10 feet when coming off of a screen or taking a dribble. When people talk about jumpers (especially for smaller guards), they mean actual jumpers, both off the dribble and off screens. That is a definite weakness in Nelson's game.

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into point totals in essentially pickup games against a bunch of guys who aren't likely to get drafted. We know Nelson can score against college players. What we don't know is what he can do against NBA players. Nelson has been successful in college due to aggressiveness and strength. In the NBA, though, the size, speed, strength, and athleticism is light-years ahead of what he'll face in college and what he'll face in the pre-draft camp. The scouts come to look at specific things that will translate to the next level, not so much stats.

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

There's really no point in even bringing James up here. James was 6'8" 240lbs with otherwordly athleticism and phenomenal court vision and ballhandling skills. Nelson is, at best, 6'4" (and may be shorter), and he doesn't have even adequate ballhandling skills for a guard. Therefore, it's much more important to be able to shoot a jumper for Nelson than it is for James. The jumper is just one of several questions about Nelson - it was pretty much the ONLY question about James.

[CameronCrazy'11]

I think Nelson might be getting hurt by the perception that he's not a good jumpshooter. If you look at the stats he shot .388 from 3-point ranged, which was tied with Scheyer for second behind Paulus' very good percentage (.423). However, Nelson only took 103 shots from deep, compared to 196 for Paulus and 121 for Scheyer. Even Singler, who only shot .340 from deep took 150 from deep. Even Taylor King, who had less than 1/3 Nelson's playing time managed to put up 114 3-point attempts.

Of course we all know why Nelson didn't take more shots even though his percentage was so good. He still managed the most points per game because he's so good at getting to the basket. However, many of the scouts watching him have probably seen that most of his points come near the rim and concluded that he wouldn't be able to get to the basket like that against NBA defenses. Nelson's percentage though seems to suggest that if he wanted to he could easily score more threes even though he does have something of a slow release. To really impress the scouts Nelson should shoot the three as much as possible.

[CDu]

I think Nelson might be getting hurt by the perception that he's not a good jumpshooter. If you look at the stats he shot .388 from 3-point ranged, which was tied with Scheyer for second behind Paulus' very good percentage (.423). However, Nelson only took 103 shots from deep, compared to 196 for Paulus and 121 for Scheyer. Even Singler, who only shot .340 from deep took 150 from deep. Even Taylor King, who had less than 1/3 Nelson's playing time managed to put up 114 3-point attempts.

Of course we all know why Nelson didn't take more shots even though his percentage was so good. He still managed the most points per game because he's so good at getting to the basket. However, many of the scouts watching him have probably seen that most of his points come near the rim and concluded that he wouldn't be able to get to the basket like that against NBA defenses. Nelson's percentage though seems to suggest that if he wanted to he could easily score more threes even though he does have something of a slow release. To really impress the scouts Nelson should shoot the three as much as possible.

It may be a perception issue, but the perception is there because Nelson didn't really take any jumpshots as a collegiate. His shots were comprised of set shots and drives to the rim. Set shots from 3-point range aren't the same thing as jumpshots.

I think Nelson needs to show more than just an ability to shoot the three. He needs to show that he can shoot when coming off of screens, and he needs to show he can shoot off the dribble. And it wouldn't hurt to show more ability as a playmaker off the dribble, because at his size he'll likely need to play a bit at the point.

[gotham devil]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

You might want to start your argument with a lesser player than a 23 year old 4-time NBA All-Star small forward when trying to justify the drafting of a 22 yr old college shooting guard who shoots 60% from the FT line.

James averaged 30 ppg, 7.9 rpg, and 7.2 apg, while shooting 48%.. playing in the NBA.

Nelson averaged 14.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 2.9 apg, while shooting 49%..playing in the ACC.

[SilkyJ]

I can't think of a single time he took a shot beyond 10 feet when coming off of a screen or taking a dribble. When people talk about jumpers (especially for smaller guards), they mean actual jumpers, both off the dribble and off screens. That is a definite weakness in Nelson's game.

I can remember several times, he just rarely made them.

Basically, I agree with your whole post.

[CDu]

I can remember several times, he just rarely made them.

Basically, I agree with your whole post.

Yeah, I should probably have clarified and said "made", not "took."

[greybeard]

DeMarcus's prospects have nothing to do with jump shooting. They have everything to do with his ability to be a lock down defender like Bowen. If DeMarcus's defense can rise to that level, his ability to finish in transition, to create and retrieve loose balls, and to get rebounds in a crowd, might earn him a spot. If he has to rely on his shot, I agree he has none.

[CDu]

DeMarcus's prospects have nothing to do with jump shooting. They have everything to do with his ability to be a lock down defender like Bowen. If DeMarcus's defense can rise to that level, his ability to finish in transition, to create and retrieve loose balls, and to get rebounds in a crowd, might earn him a spot. If he has to rely on his shot, I agree he has none.

I think this is an entirely separate issue, but I agree. I think that teams would LOVE to see Nelson show the ability to shoot off of the dribble or off screens. If he could do that, he'd greatly improve his chances of making a team.

I do agree though that he's unlikely to show this skillset. As such, you're right - he's basically going to have to hope he can show he's a lockdown defender at the two-guard spot. That's something that isn't going to be shown in the pre-draft camps, as Nelson isn't likely to face any NBA shooting guards in this camp.

[unexpected]

As per the LeBron James comment, I do remember a time during his HS senior year, when people were heavily criticizing his shot, and he went out and shot a ton of 3's in the next game. I think he was 7/9 from 3pt land that game, and people shut up about him.

James doesn't even need a 3 pt shot, but when he needs to shoot them, he can shoot them. He's no Kobe, but his shot isn't there not because he doesn't lack the skill, it's just that he never needs to use it. I bet as he gets older he turns into a better and better 3pt shooter (a la MJ).

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

[bhd28]

As per the LeBron James comment, I do remember a time during his HS senior year, when people were heavily criticizing his shot, and he went out and shot a ton of 3's in the next game. I think he was 7/9 from 3pt land that game, and people shut up about him.

James doesn't even need a 3 pt shot, but when he needs to shoot them, he can shoot them. He's no Kobe, but his shot isn't there not because he doesn't lack the skill, it's just that he never needs to use it. I bet as he gets older he turns into a better and better 3pt shooter (a la MJ).

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

For Nelson, it isn't about his 3pt %. It is about shooting jumpers off the dribble. That is the criticism. He took one that I saw yesterday in the predraft camp (which was shown on ESPNU) and airballed it... badly. If he had a tight handle, that would be less of a problem, but we all saw that he had trouble at times driving in too far in college. With the big men in the NBA, that would be much worse. He has to show a mid-range game to be successful... a mid-range game off the dribble. His 3pt % was good in college, but that is mid-range in the NBA. How many 3's do people remember him making from well beyond the arc? His made 3s were almost always set shots. greybeard is right. If he makes an NBA spot at this time, it will be as a defender... which is a lot easier for someone 6'5-6'8 than a guy who is 6'3". Hopefully, his offensive game will improve with time. That said, he is a physical specimen. If he really wants to make it, he might have to spend some time in NBDL or Europe, but if he puts in enough effort, I think he has a decent shot at the NBA (if not now, then at some point in the future).

[SilkyJ]

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

guys. enough comparing demarcus to NBA all-stars. Wade does not have a great 3 pt shot but makes up for it by being EXCEPTIONAL in SEVERAL other areas. The guy plays PG and SG and is a WAY better ball-handler and passer than Demarcus. And he does have a good mid-range jumper.

Why does anyone think its a legit comparison to say "well this NBA all-star has a similar flaw, so if he can do it, demarcus can." Do you guys not realize what a ridiculous statement that is??? The players you've used obviously excel in other areas such that they are ALL-STARS, something we clearly know demarcus is not (meaning while he might share a flaw or too with them, his "strengths" are not as "strong" as these other guys). I feel like this should be plainly obvious. why do I/others even need to say this.

The comparison to Bowen as a defensive stopper is much more apropos, and frankly, I think demarcus can be that kind of guy. The similarity continues there from CDu's comments above about Demarcus being a "set 3pt shooter" b/c that's all Bowen does on the offensive end: he plays on the wing and shoot open 3s from the wing/corner. Demarcus could do that very well. Bowen is a little taller, but demarcus is stronger, long (dont know if he's longer, but we know has that ridiculous wingspan), and has better hops, so I think he can make up for the few inches he loses.

[NM Duke Fan]

For DeMarcus to make it he has to continue to minimize his weaknesses, which have been well covered here. He also has to endear himself to a team with his significant strengths. He has the tools to be a solid role player right now on right team, and if he can land that spot he should be able to continue to minimize his weaknesses over time. Best of success to him, with his work ethic he will give it all he has like he has for many years...

[CameronCrazy'11]

Sorry to break up the gloomfest, but I just want to point out one thing that may work in Demarc's favor. If you look at his stats he's approved in almost every category over his four years. In his speech to the Crazies before the UNC game, K made a point to say that he thought unlike some players (points to the retired jerseys) he thought that every player on this team was still developing and going to be a better player a few years down the road. While this might not help him this year, as scouts might not be willing to give a senior the benefit of the doubt, it does suggest that he might be able to go to the NBA after a few years abroad.

To take the ridiculous comparisons even further, remember that Michael Jordan was playing JV his sophomore year and was the 3rd overall pick. In retrospect, passing up Jordan was probably one of the worst decisions in NBA history. Now, of course I'm not saying that I think Nelson will be as good as the most famous Tarheel, I'm just illustrating the point that many players still get much better, even after their senior year.

[Billy Dat]

The smartest thing I have seen writeen about Markie is that he'd be better off not being drafted so that he and his agent can target teams where he has the best chance to make it, unlike C-Well who was trying to make the recent champion Spurs. For guys occupying those last few slots on the bench, it is a total crapshoot. You could take any 11th-12th man on any squad, or the guys dressed in street clothes who are on the IR, and swap them for any of the top guys in the NBDL, Europe, or wherever and it would largely be a wash. Look at Trajan...he's killing it in Europe and his skills could probably earn him an NBA contract...to sit on the bench.

We know Markie has the work ethic and the athleticism, let's just hope he's gets a break along the way. If not, I hope he follows Trajan's lead and heads overseas.

[CDu]

Sorry to break up the gloomfest, but I just want to point out one thing that may work in Demarc's favor. If you look at his stats he's approved in almost every category over his four years. In his speech to the Crazies before the UNC game, K made a point to say that he thought unlike some players (points to the retired jerseys) he thought that every player on this team was still developing and going to be a better player a few years down the road. While this might not help him this year, as scouts might not be willing to give a senior the benefit of the doubt, it does suggest that he might be able to go to the NBA after a few years abroad.

To take the ridiculous comparisons even further, remember that Michael Jordan was playing JV his sophomore year and was the 3rd overall pick. In retrospect, passing up Jordan was probably one of the worst decisions in NBA history. Now, of course I'm not saying that I think Nelson will be as good as the most famous Tarheel, I'm just illustrating the point that many players still get much better, even after their senior year.

It's not a gloomfest. It's just the reality that making it in the NBA is VERY hard, and that Nelson has some very real limitations. The comparison to Jordan is also not apt because while Jordan failed to make his varsity team as a sophomore in high school, he was an All-ACC caliber player from the moment he walked onto the court.

Can players get better over time? Sure. Has Nelson gotten better in each of his four years? Sure. But he's yet to show any progress in the areas that are going to be necessary for him to be more than a fringe roster player (at best), which are ballhandling, passing, and ability to shoot off the dribble or off a screen.

I'd love for Nelson to make it. I loved having him play for Duke. But he just has a LOT of things that make it unlikely for him to make it. He has a small forward's game in a point guard's body.

[Wander]

I've improved a whole lot the past four years. Should I be drafted?

[CameronCrazy'11]

I've improved a whole lot the past four years. Should I be drafted?

if you keep improving at the same pace far another 40-50 years, sure.

[sagegrouse]

I can't figure out why we are having a debate on whether Markie makes the big time.

I, for one, will be interested in seeing how his strength, athleticism, defensive skills, and 7-foot wingspan help in NBA tryouts. (Have the official measurements been published yet?) It is hard to think of a college player at all similar to Markie.

Good luck!

sagegrouse

[Jumbo]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

Oh dear. Someone tell me whether I should bother reading the rest of the thread, or if I should quietly fade away.