A Triple Crown win is a "foregone conclusion"

[Bluedawg]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.

"I feel that he will do it, I feel like it's actually a foregone conclusion. To me, I just see the horses he's in with and I see our horse so I expect him to win this race. ...

http://www.newsobserver.com/1577/story/1089486.html

Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

[Bluedog]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.



Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

ha, well, unlike other sports the trash talking doesn't do much since the horses don't understand English, so there's no psychological detriment to the guarantee or added pressure on Big Brown. If Big Brown's injury is truly healed, then, yes, I think it's in the bag. He has just been so dominant in all of his races. The other horses will obviously be fighting for Place and Show. Right now the odds are 1/3! That's right. Not 3/1, but 1/3. Casino Drive has the second best odds at 7/2.

[DevilHorse]

Big Brown will be the best horse in the race but...

- will his jockey be smart enough not to move too soon, which has sunk the triple crown tries of several other two-leg failures

- the quality of the Belmont horses will be better than the Preakness, and any traffic issues will be less than in the Derby (fewer horses, bigger turns and longer straightaways).

- the preparedness edge may skew away from Big Brown in that he hasn't had the 5 week rest that several of the horses who skipped the Preakness will have had. Imagine the tired legs in the 3rd day of the ACC tournament vs. the 2nd day of an NCAA pod with the day to rest (note reference to qualify on the main board); the day off in between makes all the difference in the last quarter, err.. fulong.

- will his feet be OK.

He looks good, but we've seen invisible 800 lb gorillas mysteriously appear on the back of Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, and Spectacular Bid (I don't buy the safety pin), so anything can happen.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Bluedawg]

ha, well, unlike other sports the trash talking doesn't do much since the horses don't understand English, so there's no psychological detriment to the guarantee or added pressure on Big Brown.

But jockeys do...trainers do. Horses feed off of that energy. The relationship between the jockey and horse is huge.

[jacone21]

Barring injury, I think Big Brown will take it with ease. I wasn't so sure until I saw the overhead shot of his breakaway at the Preakness. You can see it at about 1:45 here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMoxifieuoI

He's a pretty special horse.

[Bluedawg]

He looks good, but we've seen invisible 800 lb gorillas mysteriously appear on the back of Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, and Spectacular Bid (I don't buy the safety pin), so anything can happen.

Larry
DevilHorse

I think Spectacular Bid's problem was more due to "a questionable ride by jockey Ronnie Franklin" than anything else, which is why i said the "trash talk" could affect the jockeys and therefore affect the horses.

Imagine the tired legs in the 3rd day of the ACC tournament vs. the 2nd day of an NCAA pod with the day to rest (note reference to qualify on the main board)

I debated where to put this and since the main board carries sports of various types i thought it might slide by.

[davekay1971]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.



Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

It's so in-the-bag that I just took out a second mortgage on my home, emptied the kids' college funds, cashed out my IRA, and put it all on Big Brown. Financial genius, baby...

[Lavabe]

I think Spectacular Bid's problem was more due to "a questionable ride by jockey Ronnie Franklin" than anything else, which is why i said the "trash talk" could affect the jockeys and therefore affect the horses.

Larry, Bluedawg, davekay1971,
Like I suspect Larry, I was there that day. To say that Ronnie Franklin didn't ride properly was an understatement. 1:11 & 1/5 6 furlong time! [Note: you can find the race replay on youtube]. When Marshall Cassidy called the pace "TORRID," that was that. To say Bid had no kick was an understatement. To say that Buddy Delp was talking big on this horse was an understatement.

Pin, shmin.
Ronnie Franklin in a questionable state prior to the race. Fine.
No one told us these two things before the race.

That day stunk. Pure and simple.

So no, davekay1971, I won't put the 2nd mortgage on it, not at those odds. I've seen too much happen. Will he win it? Most likely, but the bet is not with Big Brown at low odds.

And yes, I lost money on that 1979 race.

Losing cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

I'm in DK'71's camp...working on as much leverage as I can get for the sure thing!

Haha, what will they be paying, 1:10? That's good isn't it? HAHAHA!

[Lavabe]

I'm in DK'71's camp...working on as much leverage as I can get for the sure thing!

Haha, what will they be paying, 1:10? That's good isn't it? HAHAHA!

I've never seen a morning line below 1:5 ... but I'll defer to DevilHorse on that one. Expect 1:10 or 1:20 odds with a HUGE minus pool. Everyone will want to say, "I bet on a Triple Crown winner." You put $2 down, you get back $2.10.

And what'll happen when the exacta with Casino Drive pays less than $4 for a $2 bet?

[blublood]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.


Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

That's a ridiculous statement to make and BB's trainer knows it (or at least, should know it). Nothing is *ever* in the bag with a horse race. He could stumble out of the gate. He could get ganged up on down the stretch (and in fact, this is very likely). He could grab the bit and run away with it. All these things have nothing to do with how good Big Brown is or the quality of the rest of the field, it's just luck and horse racing.

[blublood]

Actually, on further perusing the article, I'll change my mind from "rash" to "what a freaking idiot." If you have money, bet everything you've got away from Big Brown - the racing gods just love to issue smackdowns on stuff like this.

[Lavabe]

Actually, on further perusing the article, I'll change my mind from "rash" to "what a freaking idiot." If you have money, bet everything you've got away from Big Brown - the racing gods just love to issue smackdowns on stuff like this.

The late Grover Buddy Delp teased the racing gods, and look what happened to Spectacular Bid.

You don't tease the racing gods!

Nothing is certain.

Having said that, I have a lot more faith in an older Kent Desormeaux than I ever had in the young Ronnie Franklin.

Hmm... what's the status of "Denis of York?"

Cheers,
Lavabe

[Lavabe]

At 2-5 morning line odds, Big Brown starts from the rail. Casino Drive is the second choice, and Denis of Cork (apologies for previous spelling mistake on this horse's name) is third choice.

ESPN has a list of all the post positions here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...ory?id=3425557

Cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

Anyone have thoughts on an exacta for tomorrow's race. I will actually be in a casino where I can put down a bet...

[Lavabe]

Anyone have thoughts on an exacta for tomorrow's race. I will actually be in a casino where I can put down a bet...

Casino Drive had to skip today's scheduled workout because of a bruised left hind hoof. This may drive up the Big Brown/Casino Drive exacta, but it'll still be way low.

As a third choice at 12-1 morning line, I'm liking Denis of Cork more and more. He had a monster close in the Derby. If he gets bet down some, I might consider the BigBrown/DofC exacta wager.

But it's your money.

Assuming Big Brown wins, we may have an odd situation in which the place price for the horse that comes in second will be more than the win price on Big Brown.

Check for scratches when you wake up. We'll see what happens with Casino Drive's left hind hoof. If he's scratched, I wouldn't bet this race.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[AtlBluRew]

I read today that Big Brown will be running with a patched hoof, because it is partially cracked. Sounds dangerous to me. And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

[YmoBeThere]

And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

PPB...

[Lavabe]

I read today that Big Brown will be running with a patched hoof, because it is partially cracked. Sounds dangerous to me. And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

I'll trust veterinarians on the scene to make an opinion on the danger level. To clarify for folks, Big Brown had a quarter crack. A description of the exact injury is provided in this AP report on espn's web site. Please note the assessment of the horse:
"The injury is having about as much luck at stopping Big Brown as the competition. Several veterinarians characterized the quarter crack as innocuous and said racing in Saturday's grueling 1½-mile Belmont shouldn't pose an additional risk to the strapping bay colt."

Veterinarians & hoof specialists have assessed that his hoof is "stronger than ever." On the video in the espn link, assessment by the quarter crack/hoof specialist is that Big Brown is "100%." By all reports I've seen, the injury has healed well, and has been given plenty of time. Most folks would have more of a problem if the crack had just appeared the day before the race. This appeared much earlier. Add in solid workouts, and a 1 1/4 mile Friday morning gallop, and the horse seems fine from all reports.

If you have any inside information, please post before the race.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

A much more thought out and reasoned answer than my juvenile PPB comment...