Results 1 to 16 of 16
  1. #1

    Preakness '08 Discussion

    I thought I'd get the discussion going.

    Here are the advanced Past Performances, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...her_110564.pdf

    Here too is the Past Performance sheet for the Black Eyed Susan, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_110339.pdf

    Let the handicapping begin...

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lexington, KY

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    I thought I'd get the discussion going.

    Here are the advanced Past Performances, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...her_110564.pdf

    Here too is the Past Performance sheet for the Black Eyed Susan, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_110339.pdf

    Let the handicapping begin...

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Thanks for this post, and for your last one in the Derby thread.

    Big Brown faces one Derby rival (Gayego) in the Preakness. Program odds are 2-5; that will be the highest price he'll get. It doesn't look like much early speed, which should be odd for the Preakness.

    Barring some freak injury or an off surface, this should be straightforward for Big Brown. The quality of competition doesn't look all that great in this race.

    Cheers,
    Lavabe

  3. #3
    So will the competition pick up in the Belmont or will we have a Triple Crown winner? Yes, I am getting ahead of myself here...

  4. #4

    Early Speed

    Tres Barrachos (3 Drunks) and Gayego should provide an honest pace.

    There were some minor stakes winners in the field, but these horses couldn't drum up enough money to get into the Derby, so how good could they be.

    If Giant Moon hates wet tracks, then he might have an argument; the weather was actually awful for both of his starts (much moisture still in the track for the Wood). But I wonder if he left his Preakness on the track with his bullet work on May 13th (4f in 47 3/5 Heavy going).

    Could Gayego get one of the bounces of all time? Stranger things have happened. I still can't explain Lil E Tee.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #5
    Bump, this ended up a couple of pages back. Just in case anyone is interested.

  6. #6

    Big Brown The Pick

    It is very tough to pick against Big Brown today, and very tough to bet him.
    He has been holding steady at 1/10 odds and is just not worth the risk to bet.
    You have to figure that a suck-a-long stalker will finish second. I'll go with an exacta bet of both Big Brown over Racecar Rhapsody and another Exacta of Big Brown over Stevil. I would play a saver bet exacta box with Giant Moon and Big Brown just because Giant Moon seems to hate the slop and that's all he has raced in over his last 2 races.

    So there.

    Larry
    Devilhorse

  7. #7
    No shot at a Trifecta? I agree that with the odds where they are at, it doesn't make sense to make a straight bet. Unfortunately, I'm going to miss the race as I will be at a graduation party.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lexington, KY

    Thumbs up Hmm...

    The weather is starting to kick up at Pimlico, and they may have some rain before the race. Although the wind is kicking up, the track is lightning fast today. The Hirsch Jacobs 6 furlong race went 1:09.

    Hard to wager against Big Brown, but the weather may open up an avenue for someone.

    I expect a looming, stalking race from Big Brown, unless no one sets the pace.

    Just watched last week's Peter Pan, won by Desormeaux on Casino Drive. That should prove interesting for the Belmont.

    Cheers,
    Lavabe
    Last edited by Lavabe; 05-17-2008 at 04:01 PM. Reason: Date on the Peter Pan

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    I still can't explain Lil E Tee.
    Pat Day?

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Just watched the race. Big Brown looked very good. I'll be rooting for him in the Belmont. I always root for a Triple Crown, but, won't this be the most boring horse name for a Triple Crown winner if he does pull it off?

  11. #11
    I remember Pat Day from my first trip to Churchill Down in '84. I won $2.40 that day on a horse he was riding. I don't remember the horse's name. (Yes, my parents put in the wager for me.)

  12. #12

    Big Brown Says "See Ya"

    Big Brown was out for a lark today. Desormeaux had him in position and he had great acceleration at the head of the stretch. You just don't see a horse open that type of daylight in 3 strides. Talk about "See Ya".

    Yes, Pat Day on Lil E Tee. I remember when they had Pat Day Day at one of the Kentucky Tracks. He was a great jockey.

    I can't say that Casino Drive is going to have that much luck against Big Brown. Sure he has pedigree, but at this point, Big Brown has so much more experience than he does. Not to mention that he's gone 2 turns twice with 126 lbs and hasn't been tested in ANY of his starts to date. I think you'd have to look at one of the Derby horses that had a 5 week freshening. But still, if there is any pace, you still have to like the big horse. I just wish I liked his pedigree more

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #13
    As an outsider, I was curious about a the issue of pedigree. Four of the ten fastest Derbys were run in the last 10 years, but I would have thought the focus on breeding would have produced times faster than Secretariat's. If I recall correctly, at least at the time I visited Claiborne, Secretariat did not have a great record of siring stakes winners. Nijinksy was getting a lot more to stand at stud at that time.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lexington, KY

    Unhappy Spectacular Bid

    I saw Slew, then Affirmed, then ... the Bid. In the back of my mind, something can always happen in the Belmont. Maybe it'll be an off surface. Who knows?

    It's hard for me to pick anyone but Big Brown, but the 1 1/2 miles has a funny way of knocking off horses from winning the Triple Crown.

    Casino Drive will get some money, but I don't see it winning. Denis may make a race of it. You never know.
    Cheers,
    Lavabe

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Meanwhile, the real reason to attend the Preakness is not to see the horses racing but to watch The Running of the Urinals.

    --Jason "hmmm, does that video provide any hints as to why Maryland fans seem to get a little feisty when they play Duke?" Evans

  16. #16

    Where's The Speed?

    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    As an outsider, I was curious about a the issue of pedigree. Four of the ten fastest Derbys were run in the last 10 years, but I would have thought the focus on breeding would have produced times faster than Secretariat's. If I recall correctly, at least at the time I visited Claiborne, Secretariat did not have a great record of siring stakes winners. Nijinksy was getting a lot more to stand at stud at that time.
    I don't think the breed is faster at the classic distances than it was 30 years ago. The breed is over 200 years old is more oriented toward early speed than it is for speed over a distance. Early speed means sprints (6 furlongs to a mile) and as young horses 2 and 3. Horses at 2 and 3 are in their prime earning years and make their reputations at that time. It is less important if the horse can race a classic distance later in life, although it would be nice to win the Kentucky Derby, you can get a very nice price on a horse (or good stud fee) if you just win one Graded prep race at a sprint distance. The stud book is littered with horses with this type of advertized value.

    Secretariat's siring record, although very good, was not special for race horses. He did sire a Preakness and Belmont winner (Placed in the Derby) in Risen Star, General Assembly also placed in the Derby and won the Travers in what is still a record time of 2:00.0, and had the Horse of the Year mare Lady's Secret. Secretariat actually was the leading 2 year old siring horse in I think his 3rd crop. But his great contribution has been as a broodmare sire for race horses and producers. The breeders found out with time, his daughters were golden. If you look on the Broodmare siring lists, you can see that Secretariat has produced the dams of sires through many different sires that have been extremely influential on the breed. The most notable broodmare credits are: Gone West, Storm Cat, A P Indy, and Chief's Crown (winner of the first Breeder's Cup race for 2YO colts). The first 3 horses have created siring dynasties themselves with multiple independent sire lines each with Classic Champions produced (i.e., Tabasco Cat, Bernadini, Smarty Jones, Commendable, Rags To Riches) and Breeders Cup Champions. As I look at the top sires list issued this past week, 5 of the top 10 sires carry Secretariat blood in their 2nd or 3rd generation. That's not chopped liver or coincidence. I could go on

    Larry
    Devilhorse

Similar Threads

  1. Discussion of 2008-09
    By feldspar in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 150
    Last Post: 04-09-2008, 03:27 PM
  2. Introspective discussion.
    By xenic in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 06-04-2007, 01:40 AM
  3. Idol- discussion and who won?
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 05-26-2007, 02:49 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •