SI bumps Duke from 9 to 4 in Power Rankings

[matrix1686]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ngs/index.html

Good to see at least one writer coming around to the idea of what a veteran Blue Devils squad can do. Winn gets it exactly right when he says sometimes you need a month's separation from an ugly loss.

[Bluedawg]

He also dropped UNC from 1 to 3.

[watzone]

He did a good job recognizing the top teams. I had been looking through the ranks for several weeks and he listed pretty much every team I had on my list, including the HM's. Duke looks like an elite 8 team no matter how you turn it about.

[duketaylor]

Wat, should Miles decide for Duke how much better does that make the Devils? I posted in another thread I simply think we need to take the defensive pressure off Kyle guarding the opposing big. Thoughts?

[eddiehaskell]

I believe somewhere in the 5-8 spots is about right.

UNC will end up being pre-season #1. Green and Ellington will be back...probably Lawson too. I'm thinking they all know they wont be drafted high so Roy told them to go ahead and see what the process is like/get some pointers. With all those guys back and their new recruits - it'll be fun watching them blow it in the tournament.

[BD80]

The Hansbrough backlash picks up steam:

The roughly 4,000-plus Division I scholarship hoopsters not named Tyler Hansbrough will have to resign themselves to the fact that, for another year, the best they can possibly be is the second-hardest-working player in the country.

I forsee a dramatic change in the "buzz" surrounding Hans. Announcers will put more pressure on him and start questioning whether he really does outwork other players. They will also start questioning his flops - which will be called much more by the refs. The refs in general will call him more closely, we may even see a traveling call! A big issue will be how little defense Hans plays; if Zoub could learn to hold his offensive position, he could score at will on Hans.

[Classof06]

I believe somewhere in the 5-8 spots is about right.

UNC will end up being pre-season #1. Green and Ellington will be back...probably Lawson too. I'm thinking they all know they wont be drafted high so Roy told them to go ahead and see what the process is like/get some pointers.

I'm with Eddie on this one, I have a tough time putting us up in the top 2 or 3 for next year; honestly speaking, it may very well have to do with the fact that I'm scarred from the way this past season ended. I still believe we're a team that may again have to over-rely on perimeter talent, talent we have plenty of. Especially with Zoubek re-injuring his foot, I just don't see what has dramatically changed from last year (except losing our MVP).

I totally think we're a top 10 team, in between 5 and 10, but I'll have to see how we play next year before saying we should be in the top 3 or 4 spots.

That being said, if we're somehow able to add the older Plumlee, I would immediately have to put us up there with anybody, no doubt about it. That would be like Christmas in April (or May)...

[Edouble]

I forsee a dramatic change in the "buzz" surrounding Hans. Announcers will put more pressure on him and start questioning whether he really does outwork other players. They will also start questioning his flops - which will be called much more by the refs. The refs in general will call him more closely, we may even see a traveling call! A big issue will be how little defense Hans plays; if Zoub could learn to hold his offensive position, he could score at will on Hans.

I hope you are right, b/c he is a terrible traveler and whiner, but I see the story about him coming back to school for his senior year and passing on the draft dominating the talk about him in the media. It's hard to see all the refs in the NCAA getting together and completely changing how they officiate the guy too. Like it or not, he's a marquee player and he's earned the benefit of the doubt on close calls from the refs.

[Troublemaker]

Pretty good list by Winn. I think he underrated two teams, though: Michigan State at 14 and Gonzaga at 19. Both should be in the top 8, imo. Next season, college basketball should be so depleted that just as long as a team has 5 good players in the starting lineup (and not necessarily any great players), it should be top 10.

MSU will start Lucas, Allen/Summers, Morgan, Roe, and Suton.

Gonzaga will start Pargo, Boulding, Downs, Daye, and Heytvelt.

Both are Final Four contenders.

[Troublemaker]

I suspect the possible addition of Miles Plumlee won't affect Duke's chances too much in 2009 (but in later years, it would be nice to have him). He's a top-50ish recruit, not a top 10 recruit, and it sounds like he'll have to add a decent amount of strength. He only averaged 15 and 7 at the high school level this past season, albeit on a talented team, so I wouldn't heap expectations upon him his freshman year. I'll expect more from Z and LT, though. They're upperclassmen now.

[Classof06]

I suspect the possible addition of Miles Plumlee won't affect Duke's chances too much in 2009 (but in later years, it would be nice to have him). He's a top-50ish recruit, not a top 10 recruit, and it sounds like he'll have to add a decent amount of strength. He only averaged 15 and 7 at the high school level this past season, albeit on a talented team, so I wouldn't heap expectations upon him his freshman year. I'll expect more from Z and LT, though. They're upperclassmen now.

This is how I felt a week after the season but the reality is that Zoubek is coming off of yet another foot surgery and it's hard to say that won't negatively affect his development. And I find it difficult to expect that much development from Lance Thomas. He clearly struggles playing what is really not his natural position and not to be harsh, but it shows. Again, the kid went all season without recording double-digit rebounds in a game. I hate to keep bringing up that stat but it just really hits home to me. Given what Lance is asked to do (whether it's fair or not), that is a major problem for Duke.

I don't think Plumlee is going to come in and dominate right away but given the current state of our frontcourt, I feel confident saying that if he did come to Duke, he would make an impact. I feel the same way about Czyz. It's not because these 2 kids (Czyz and Plumlee) are future lottery picks, it's because they're entering a situation in dire need of help. IMO, a 6-9, 225 body that can (if nothing else) rebound might as well be a CARE package landing on the roof of CIS.

Oh, and I think Duke fans of all people shouldn't use recruiting rankings as the final word. If Watzone says the kid can play, I'll take his word over some number attached to the kid's name.

[Bluedawg]

He did a good job recognizing the top teams. I had been looking through the ranks for several weeks and he listed pretty much every team I had on my list, including the HM's. Duke looks like an elite 8 team no matter how you turn it about.

Is Miles coming here a realistic possibility or is this just wishful thinking?

[Troublemaker]

This is how I felt a week after the season but the reality is that Zoubek is coming off of yet another foot surgery and it's hard to say that won't negatively affect his development. And I find it difficult to expect that much development from Lance Thomas. He clearly struggles playing what is really not his natural position and not to be harsh, but it shows. Again, the kid went all season without recording double-digit rebounds in a game. I hate to keep bringing up that stat but it just really hits home to me. Given what Lance is asked to do (whether it's fair or not), that is a major problem for Duke.

I don't think Plumlee is going to come in and dominate right away but given the current state of our frontcourt, I feel confident saying that if he did come to Duke, he would make an impact. I feel the same way about Czyz. It's not because these 2 kids (Czyz and Plumlee) are future lottery picks, it's because they're entering a situation in dire need of help. IMO, a 6-9, 225 body that can (if nothing else) rebound might as well be a CARE package landing on the roof of CIS.

Oh, and I think Duke fans of all people shouldn't use recruiting rankings as the final word. If Watzone says the kid can play, I'll take his word over some number attached to the kid's name.

I'm sure watzone said Z and LT can play, too (and again, let's see what happens with them this year and next). Again, I'm just trying to temper expectations about recruits. I'm sure Miles is a good prospect but I won't expect much from him his freshman season. I've said before, I think Duke is a top 5 team next season, but that doesn't hinge on Miles coming here. Just playing devil's advocate.

[Classof06]

I'm sure watzone said Z and LT can play, too (and again, let's see what happens with them this year and next). Again, I'm just trying to temper expectations about recruits. I'm sure Miles is a good prospect but I won't expect much from him his freshman season. I've said before, I think Duke is a top 5 team next season, but that doesn't hinge on Miles coming here. Just playing devil's advocate.

My point is that until I see it, I'm not convinced Duke is a top 5 team next year because we'll still be a team (sans Miles Plumlee) that over-relies on perimeter talent while losing our MVP from last year. And to tell me "Don't worry, we have Lance Thomas and a still hobbled Brian Zoubek" isn't going to make me sleep much better at night.

Plumlee's presence greatly changes that, IMO. Not because he's going to be the best player ever to come to Duke but because he helps fill a hole that Duke desperately needs to have filled if they're going to cut any nets down (Elite 8 or Final Four). This is why I have maintained that I don't expect Duke to be a legit contender until 2009, because that's when we're projected to get more height. I think landing the elder Plumlee certainly shortens that timeline.

[moonpie23]

when i see us closing out the feb with tough acc wins i will believe we are top 5 material...

[watzone]

I'm sure watzone said Z and LT can play, too (and again, let's see what happens with them this year and next). Again, I'm just trying to temper expectations about recruits. I'm sure Miles is a good prospect but I won't expect much from him his freshman season. I've said before, I think Duke is a top 5 team next season, but that doesn't hinge on Miles coming here. Just playing devil's advocate.

I wholeheartedly agree that tempering expectations is wise. FWIW, I never saw Zoubs play in AAU events. I think it's fair to say that big men generally take longer to develop tho.

[CDu]

I wholeheartedly agree that tempering expectations is wise. FWIW, I never saw Zoubs play in AAU events. I think it's fair to say that big men generally take longer to develop tho.

It's also fair to say that any expectations of Zoubek should be further tempered by the fact that he's now had multiple foot injuries. For a guy who many considered a project coming into college, these injuries have no doubt set his development as a player back substantially. They may have set him back so much that any discussion of his ranking as a high school player could be considered irrelevant (even more irrelevant than some already consider those rankings).

[SupaDave]

It's also fair to say that any expectations of Zoubek should be further tempered by the fact that he's now had multiple foot injuries. For a guy who many considered a project coming into college, these injuries have no doubt set his development as a player back substantially. They may have set him back so much that any discussion of his ranking as a high school player could be considered irrelevant (even more irrelevant than some already consider those rankings).

I disagree to a certain extent. Sometimes injuries actually FURTHER a player's development. A foot injury could force a player to slow down - be more patient. In the process, he works on his shooting and the mental aspect of his footwork.

A player like Larry Johnson only became a phenomenal 3-pt shooter AFTER his Granmama days were over.

I'm one who truly believes that recruiting numbers are just indicators that are not hardly indicative of potential development. I can distinctly remember Watzone having a lot of folks really high on Lance - who in my opinion is a pretty positionless player. He's not a center and not a 3. I do love his energy and what he brings to the defense is more than just rebounding. He does the little things pretty well and there were a couple of games this year where he just may have influenced the outcome with key plays.

[CDu]

I disagree to a certain extent. Sometimes injuries actually FURTHER a player's development. A foot injury could force a player to slow down - be more patient. In the process, he works on his shooting and the mental aspect of his footwork.

A player like Larry Johnson only became a phenomenal 3-pt shooter AFTER his Granmama days were over.

I'm one who truly believes that recruiting numbers are just indicators that are not hardly indicative of potential development. I can distinctly remember Watzone having a lot of folks really high on Lance - who in my opinion is a pretty positionless player. He's not a center and not a 3. I do love his energy and what he brings to the defense is more than just rebounding. He does the little things pretty well and there were a couple of games this year where he just may have influenced the outcome with key plays.

Yes, some player can improve their games despite injury. But I'd argue that that is absolutely not the case for Zoubek. Zoubek's weaknesses have always lower-body strength, quickness, and balance (ability to hold his position in the post and when making moves). Broken feet make it very difficult (if not impossible) to work on these areas. And while he could work on set shots, doing so with a broken foot doesn't come close to simulating real life. And he wouldn't be able to work on game situation shots at all, and that's what I'd argue he needs most.

Also, the LJ comparison is not all that apt. LJ had back problems, which robbed him of his great strength and explosiveness. It did not prevent him from being able to work on his shooting touch. As such, he developed a pretty good perimeter shooting game. I don't think we're looking to have Zoubek develop his shooting touch from 15-18 feet. We need him to be effective in the post. He can't really work on that with a broken foot.

[Classof06]

It's also fair to say that any expectations of Zoubek should be further tempered by the fact that he's now had multiple foot injuries. For a guy who many considered a project coming into college, these injuries have no doubt set his development as a player back substantially. They may have set him back so much that any discussion of his ranking as a high school player could be considered irrelevant (even more irrelevant than some already consider those rankings).

I'll co-sign this. Especially when Zoubek (whether the coaching staff will admit it or not) is considered a project or "developmental" recruit. Injuries have robbed him of precious offseasons, where players make the most progress.

If you're expecting Zoubek to be next year what he would have been had he been injury-free, you're kidding yourself. We'll see how he is come November but him undergoing a third foot surgery just set him back yet again. I don't see how anyone could argue otherwise.