Latest on Carolina Trio -- Hansbrough stays; Lawson/Ellington go without agents

[dukelion]

looks like it will come down to the wire....

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/goodmanonfox

[freedevil]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

[dukelion]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

I agree.... Lawson must find it hard to stomach that he was a top 20 pick last year and now he's not....usually works the other way around when you stay in school....I'm sure he's thinking that maybe he could fall even further or the posssibility of getting injured again if he returns.

[Edouble]

I agree.... Lawson must find it hard to stomach that he was a top 20 pick last year and now he's not....usually works the other way around when you stay in school....I'm sure he's thinking that maybe he could fall even further or the posssibility of getting injured again if he returns.

Lawson may be best served if Hanstravel hits the road. His assists may suffer a little, but his scoring and overall touches will shoot through the roof. Lawson's situation reminds me a little of when BJ Mackie's draft stock fell off pretty hard.

[SilkyJ]

Lawson may be best served if Hanstravel hits the road. His assists may suffer a little, but his scoring and overall touches will shoot through the roof.

Oh absolutely. With a little work on his jumper I could easily see him scoring 18ppg without Hansbrough, maybe more, depending on how good some of the freshman are...

[Bluedawg]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

[shadowfax336]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

[Uncle Drew]

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

What he would get by staying? EVERYTHING. Let's face it, Tyler is never going to be a star in the NBA though he will likely have a long career coming off the bench for many years. We know that, he knows that and NBA teams know that. Everyone also knows while he will get to travel at will in the NBA (like he doesn't already) and he will not be able to bull his way around like he does in college. At UNC right now he is a star, BMOC and in the national limelight. If and when he goes pro he will never be as reveerd, unless of course he comes back to assist at a UNC basketball camp. Put yourself in his shoes, most every girl you meet is interested even though you do look like Beaker from the Muppet Show. He's adored by the throngs of UNC fans who want his autograph and have their picture taken with him. In the NBA people will be asking him to take their picture with the actual stars of the team. He would also have another chance at a national championship, become a two time NCAA and ACC player of the year and break school and conference records. Truth be told his family isn't broke, though a few million would make most players jump at the chance. And his main concern would be the chance he got injured and lowered his draft status further. But at this point scouts know what they are getting, even with an NCAA title (God forbid) his stock won't rise too much.


As for Lawson it could go either way. Play another year and get a similar or different injury and the draft stock drops even further, perhaps making him damaged goods from there on out. So I can see him jumping at the chance to make the money and if he gets hurt at least he'd be drawing a big paycheck. Then again he could come back, stay injury free get a title and show scouts his scoring is too good to pass on with or without Tyler. If certain players leave he will be more relied on for scorring, then again he won't have quite as many sure things to dish to even with their freshman class.


Green and Ellington are even bigger question marks. Nobody doubts their athletic ability, but the NBA is full of athletes that are not good shooters. I can see both putting their name in hoping to have a good showing in pick up games and raise their draft stock. The tricky thing is no matter what you are told my agents, scouts and so called experts you never know how high you will be drafted until the night they hold the NBA draft. Here's hoping they all get agents that swear they will be lottery picks and all four leave. Some people can say they would rather beat UNC at their best. I don't care if their cheerleaders have to suit up next season and we have to beat them as long as we beat them and get Duke back on top.

[riverside6]

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

Not that this is reason enough to stay, but he will also likely set the ACC scoring record assuming his scoring remains close to the same level...

ACC Scoring Leaders

He needs 602 points to pass JJ, and considering he scored 585 as a freshman, 699 as a sophomore, and 882 as a junior, the odds appear to be in his favor.

[mpj96]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

If I recall correctly they each got to face what was perceived at the time as a weaker draft than normal since they did not have to compete against HS players for draft spots. By contrast, in the draft following JJ's & Shelden's junior year, HS players with unknown "potential" competed with college players for draft slots.

That said, like you, I believe Shelden and JJ would have stayed no matter what. I also doubt either harbors any regret about staying to graduate and completing their college careers at Duke.

[CDu]

What he would get by staying? EVERYTHING.

Agreed. If Hansbrough returns (along with the rest), he'd have a shot at owning the ACC scoring title and peppering his name throughout the UNC recordbooks. He'd have a chance to win a national championship, which would put him in all-time reverence status at UNC. And by staying, he gets to continue to be a kid for another year, continue to be hugely popular on campus, and continue to have fun playing ball, and continue being a star. If he goes to the NBA, he ceases to be the BMOC, doesn't get to win a title, doesn't get the records, doesn't get the adulation, and is no longer a star.

As for Lawson it could go either way.

Lawson is in a tough spot. There will be fewer great PG in the draft next year, which could make his stock rise automatically. But if he continues to be a one-trick pony (run really fast straight ahead) and doesn't improve his ability to create for others and his ability to shoot consistently, his size may hurt his stock. And there's always the injury concern.

Green and Ellington are even bigger question marks. Nobody doubts their athletic ability, but the NBA is full of athletes that are not good shooters.

I'm not sure I see what you mean here. Ellington is pretty much known as a shooter, not as an "athlete who is not a good shooter." If anything, Ellington's problems are the exact opposite. He's a good shooter/scorer in college, but he may lack the size and athleticism to play his natural position in the NBA.

Green is pretty athletic (good leaper) and tall/lanky, but he's also a pretty good shooter. The question with him is whether or not he can show the lateral quickness necessary to be a defensive stopper on the perimeter, and whether or not he can show any offensive game besides breakaway dunks, rebound putbacks, and spot-up three-pointers.

There are logical reasons for each player to go, and logical reasons for each player to stay. But as we've seen in the past, logic doesn't always decide these things when you're talking about 18-22-year old young men.

[Classof06]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

I think JJ and Shelden helped themselves by coming back for their senior years. With JJ, I don't think it was ever a question coming back and though Shelden mulled over the decision following his junior year, he decided to come back as well and I believe they both made the right decision.

Though JJ definitely diversified his game throughout his 4 years at Duke, the NBA viewed/views him as a spot-up shooter, a known commodity. As a result, you knew what you're getting in him and his stock didn't fluctuate so much. That being said, the way JJ was able to open up his game his senior year certainly helped him.

Shelden also benefitted from staying his senior year; I doubt he would've been a lottery pick had he left after his junior season. He went from averaging about 16 and 11 in his junior year to 19 and 11 his senior year, collecting another NABC DPOY award and being named AP 1st Team All-American (with JJ). Not to mention, through 36 games, I still maintain that Shelden had only one bad game his whole senior year (@ Georgetown, our first loss).

[Edouble]

That said, like you, I believe Shelden and JJ would have stayed no matter what. I also doubt either harbors any regret about staying to graduate and completing their college careers at Duke.

I hope they don't have any regrets, but you gotta think that if JJ had come out a year earlier and wound up on a different team, things could be pretty different for him right now. He could actually be getting PT and contributing.

[CMS2478]

The front page of IC is now reporting that Lawson will enter the draft, but not sign with an agent.

[Bluedawg]

Not that this is reason enough to stay, but he will also likely set the ACC scoring record assuming his scoring remains close to the same level...

ACC Scoring Leaders

He needs 602 points to pass JJ, and considering he scored 585 as a freshman, 699 as a sophomore, and 882 as a junior, the odds appear to be in his favor.

Likre I said All it will do is let him set some school records.

[shadowfax336]

The front page of IC is now reporting that Lawson will enter the draft, but not sign with an agent.

sources are a bit better than that, this is a fox news story and probably deserves its own thread...

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/8068386/UNC's-Lawson-to-declare,-but-won't-hire-agent

[shadowfax336]

Lawson goes in without an agent

[CDu]

Likre I said All it will do is let him set some school records.

Except that that isn't ALL it will do.

If he stays:

1. he can set some records
2. he can be the BMOC, as opposed to the NBA where he'll be just a rookie trying to carve out playing time
3. he can compete for a championship and thus immortality in Tarheel lore
4. he can continue to be a star for another year
5. he can continue to hang out with his friends that he's made over three years in college.

Firstly, to suggest that all staying gives him is the chance to break some records shouldn't be written off as meaningless. Records are a fun thing to have. They make you stand out.

But even ignoring that fact, there are a bunch of other reasons why he could stay. Quite frankly, I can't see why he'd leave, other than to make some money. He's not going to be great pro, so why give up a chance at a year of fun and record breaking?

[Truth]

Good spot! I believe the loss of Lawson would have a much bigger impact than any of the others. Let's hope the right people say the right things to him and he nabs an agent...

[CDu]

Until he makes it official in May, this isn't that telling yet. He could just be getting a feel for where he needs to improve and will come back. Lawson is going to have to beat out a number of good point guards or else he's going to be far from a lottery pick.

I think what this might suggest is that Williams recommended Lawson stay in school (based on his projected draft status), but Lawson wants to leave. If Lawson had been projected for the lottery based on Williams' research, he'd have entered with an agent. So the question will be whether Lawson decides, after meeting with scouts and hearing that he's not going to be a lottery pick, that it makes sense to return to school, or whether he decides that he wants to chase his NBA dream, regardless of draft position.

I'll say this though: IF Lawson does enter and stays in the draft, it's a BIG blow to Carolina's chances of winning the title. In the half-court, they're very beatable, and without Lawson their up-tempo game is much less imposing.